Research completed: May 2024

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5569

Executive summary

The agriculture policies outlined in the Update to the Climate Change Plan (CCP) provide a route map for agricultural transformation, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. They take a co-development approach and work with stakeholders and farmer-led groups to secure increased uptake of low-emission farming measures through new schemes and approaches.

This project examined the potential reductions in livestock methane emissions through breeding, and the policy levers that could motivate these changes.

We began by exploring the technologies that detect and measure methane, manage data and are used in the breeding process. This included considering the availability of these technologies in Scotland in 2030 and 2045, with practical considerations for a Scottish context, and identifying the breeding traits that can lead to lower methane emissions.

We then identified the relevant policy levers and behaviour changes and considered what Government, the post-farm market, pre-farm gate actors and farmers can do differently to encourage methane reductions through breeding.

Key findings

• By 2045, breeding could reduce methane emissions from the digestive process in livestock, known as enteric methane, by up to 9.5% (382.2 kt CO₂ equivalent). This is under the “Policy changes” scenario, where legislation will require farmers to introduce methane reducing breeding techniques to their herds (with uptake rates of 100% in dairy, 80% in beef, and 60% in sheep).
  • This includes a 6.8% reduction in emissions from beef, 6% from dairy and 17.5% from sheep.
  • This reduction is achieved by selecting traits for methane efficiency (methane production, intensity and yield), feed efficiency, offspring carcass weight, milk yield and milk fat and protein when choosing breeding stock.
  • Our research highlighted selective breeding for feed efficiency as a promising option. This is because, despite its lower methane reduction potential, it builds on a practice that is already well understood by farmers.
• To achieve emission reductions, actions and behaviour changes will be required of Government policymakers, pre- and post-farm gate actors and farmers. We found key barriers were lack of knowledge and perceived cost.
• Scotland has a well-developed research base around breeding livestock for reduced emissions, placing it in good stead to develop further work in this area. Funding could be targeted towards building on this research, with more data points to support innovation and enhance the robustness of results. Further research could include the potential for a specific methane reduction target to increase clarity and focus action. Funding would be useful if targeted to better communication of the research findings to inform farm advisers, pre- and post-farm actors and supporting farmer peer-to-peer learning. Collaboration between stakeholder groups will achieve greater progress.
• Relevant technologies include methods to detect and measure enteric methane in animals, data management, reproductive technologies and genomics. Those that could be mainstream in Scotland by 2030 include a national breeding programme, sexed semen and the breeding potential of an animal for a specific trait, known as estimated breeding values. The interaction between technologies is key to success. For instance, the wide use of data management tools will depend on the wide use of genomics to collect data.
• We found very few instances of methane detection methods being used on farm in the UK. We therefore believe it is unlikely these will be used beyond research and innovators by 2045. As such, we recommend encouraging the use of proxies such as mid-infrared (MIR) spectra in milk to determine methane emissions.
• Many reproductive technologies are already in use, particularly in the dairy industry, so we estimate these to be mainstream across the cattle sector by 2045. We estimate lower uptake in the sheep sector due to artificial insemination being a complex procedure. However, as sheep start breeding at an early age and often have multiple births per animal, there is greater potential for emission reductions if low-emitting traits are introduced into the herd such as through a ram.

On this basis, we think there is a strong foundation for breeding for reduced methane emissions to contribute to Scottish Government’s methane and climate commitments and to support Scottish livestock farmers’ future resilience. 

Glossary / Abbreviations

Introduction

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), 28 times more potent than CO₂, produced as a by-product of the ruminant digestive process called enteric fermentation. During enteric fermentation, microbes digest feed in a specialised stomach, known as the rumen, subsequently releasing enteric methane. In 2021, enteric fermentation from ruminant livestock, such as cattle and sheep, was responsible for 48% of GHG emissions from agriculture in Scotland.

The UK signed the Paris Agreement, committing to limit global warming to 1.5°C and is a signatory of the Global Methane Pledge, aiming to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030. The Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 outlines a net zero target for Scotland by 2045, with a 75% reduction in emissions by 2030. The strategy to meet these targets is laid out in Scotland’s Climate Change Plan (CCP) 2018-2032 and Climate Change Plan Update (CCPU).

One potential way to reduce emissions from the livestock sector is to select breeding traits in livestock that lead to lower methane emissions.

Traditional breeding programmes select cows or ewes producing offspring with desirable characteristics to either produce meat, milk or fibre, or to continue in the breeding herd. This method relies on waiting for the offspring to mature before the desired traits can be identified. The use of genetic technologies allows desired traits to be chosen at the point of breeding, giving a more assured outcome at an earlier stage.

Genetics are already used to facilitate precision breeding to improve livestock performance. As genetic changes are permanent and cumulative, it is an attractive option for targeting and reducing GHG emissions from ruminants (González-Recio et al., 2020; Manzanilla-Pech et al., 2021; Rowe et al., 2021).

Scottish research is at the forefront in breeding livestock for reduced methane. A recent project by the Roslin Institute highlighted the strong relationship between the rumen microbiome and methane emissions; SRUC has several relevant research studies (published and ongoing), with research facilities such as GreenCow measuring GHG emissions, and Moredun has researched the impact of livestock health and welfare on methane emissions. In 2023, Defra awarded £2.9 million to the sheep sector to launch ‘Breed for Ch4nge’ which aims to measure methane from 13,500 sheep to improve the efficiency of the UK flock; some of the research is taking place on Scottish farms.

The issue is of interest internationally. New Zealand research has shown that breeding for reduced emissions in sheep does not impact productivity and health; Canadian traders are marketing dairy semen with methane efficiency traits, and beef farmers in Ireland are being paid to take part in genomic programmes.

Please note, reducing methane through dietary amendments (such as feed additives) is out of scope for this project.

Project aims

This research project has two key aims:

1. To understand the methane emission reductions that could be achieved in Scotland through breeding. We do this by identifying technologies that detect and measure methane, manage data and are involved in the breeding process. We look at the likely availability of these technologies in Scotland in 2030 and 2045, with practical considerations. Finally, we identify the breeding traits that can lead to lower methane emissions and quantify these.
2. To identify what is needed to support this through policy levers and behaviour change. Using the findings of our literature review and stakeholder consultation, we suggest behaviour changes and discuss their impacts.

Identifying the evidence

To better understand where and how methane emissions could be reduced for project aim 1, we performed a Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) and a series of stakeholder interviews^[1] (now on referred to as our review) to understand:

• The technologies involved in reduced emission breeding;
• The important traits to select for reduced emissions;
• Emission reduction values;
• The benefits and challenges of breeding for reduced emissions;

The review also sought evidence on what is needed to support further uptake of these technologies in Scotland, for project aim 2.

The technologies involved in breeding for reduced emissions

We grouped the technologies used to identify livestock with low methane emissions into four categories: detection methods, data management, reproductive technologies and animal genomics.

We found little information regarding the timeline of availability for the technologies on farms in Scotland. In the stakeholder interviews, many were not aware of specific technologies being used unless they were directly involved in research. Our research did find international evidence, for example, portable accumulation chambers (PAC) in New Zealand support The Cool Sheep™ Programme. Due to this limited data on timing, we categorised the availability of the technology in Scotland in 2030 and 2045 under the following headings:

Experimental (E): used in research only, with no use on Scottish farms.

Innovative (I): used in trials on Scottish farms by a few innovators.

Mainstream (M): considered mainstream and being used on Scottish farms.

Future possibility (FP): unlikely the technology will be used by 2030 or 2045, however not ruling out its availability in the future.

Not applicable (NA): not relevant to the sector.

The rate of technology uptake will differ between and within sectors. For instance, dairy cattle are milked multiple times a day, providing an opportunity to closely assess individuals interacting with the technology. For the same assessment in the beef and sheep sectors, the grazing nature of the system may require cultural and habitual change for widespread uptake (Jones and Haresign, 2020). Farmers also have different interests, business structures, cash flow etc which impacts their decisions on changing farm practices.

Cost was excluded from our review due to the complexities in estimation. The cost of a technology is likely to depend on the individual farm situation, for example, the number of livestock or proximity to infrastructure or manufacturers. Technologies requiring installation may vary depending on whether adjustments are required to an existing building.

We understand the technologies presented below have the potential to be used in Scotland. The full list of technologies discovered in our research can be found in Appendix A, section 9.1.

Detection methods

Detection methods are used to detect and measure enteric methane to identify which animals emit less. Examples include a respiration chamber which measures the difference in methane emissions with and without the animal, while spot sampling uses head chamber systems or hand-held lasers to take short-term measurements from the animal’s breath (Tedeschi et al., 2022). Further examples can be seen in Table 1.

We found very few instances of detection methods being used in UK research, but we estimate that some will be available in 2030 and more by 2045 (see Table 1). However, as detection methods are primarily a research tool, it is unlikely they will be used beyond innovators by 2045. Practical constraints such as large technological components and measuring a few animals at a time make it challenging to introduce respiration chambers (which are considered the ‘gold standard’ of measurements) on a large scale (Manzanilla-Pech et al., 2021; Rowe et al., 2020). As such, we recommend encouraging use of proxies such as mid-infrared (MIR) spectra in milk to determine methane emissions.

Portable Accumulation Chambers (PACs) have been launched recently by scientists at Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC) for use across the UK. The two units (of 12 trailers) are currently only being used for research purposes. Each trailer holds 12 chambers and is capable of measuring between 60 – 80 sheep per day providing breeding values for methane emissions for representative samples of sheep within a breeding programme (Duthie et al., 2024)

New Zealand currently incorporates the use of PACs in breeding programmes through The Cool Sheep™ Programme, where breeders use PACs to measure and select for low-emitting rams available for breeding. Research trials are underway in countries such as Australia, Norway and Uruguay and now the UK. This technology provides a promising option for Scotland as it is transportable between farms and has a short measurement period which limits stress in livestock. However, current research trials on UK sheep systems need to be completed before PACs can be used widely (Duthie et al., 2024).

Data management

Data management technologies are essential to store, share and analyse data, while also tracking individuals and breeding lines with desired traits to improve target outcomes (including emissions reductions).

The dairy sector is advanced in this area compared to beef and sheep sectors, with established tools for monitoring and measuring production characteristics. Stakeholders discussed the possibility to enhance or repackage these tools and platforms, such as ScotEID, to incorporate methane traits. Using a tool that is familiar for farmers might reduce resistance for adoption.

1. Case study: New Zealand

N-Prove is a free website tool for New Zealand farmers to find the best rams for breeding. Using a series of button­­­­­s and slider scales, farmers can customise what traits they are looking for in a ram. NProve then generates a list of breeders with rams that best fit. Farmers can select terminal or maternal traits, as well as breeders based on location, breed and exclude certain flocks from results. Methane production is an option to select from the maternal traits. The tool is free to use and registration is not required. The tools anonymity means farmers can gather their options for the best breeder for their farm. NProve sources data from a central database and genetic evaluation service (SIL database) that holds information for more than 600 flocks, making it one of the largest genetic evaluations of sheep in the world. This tool could be used in a similar fashion for other species in other geographies as long as an appropriate database was available or was developed to source information.

Data technologies rely on wider infrastructure, such as website portals or cross-country collaboration, making it challenging to estimate the availability for 2030 and 2045. However, there is high potential. Stakeholders discussed that a risk for these technologies is the lack of interest and uptake from farmers, so it is important to inform and engage the industry regarding their benefits.

These technologies offer benefits for farmers by improving the understanding of the genetic qualities of their livestock and having a head-start on understanding the genetics and traits being brought into the herd. See Table 2 for the relevant data management technologies.

Table 1. Examples of the detection methods involved in breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions. Please see Appendix A, section 9.1 for the full list of the technologies found in our review.

Table 2. Examples of data management tools involved in the process of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions. Please see Appendix A, section 9.1 for the full list of the technologies found in our review.

Reproductive technologies

Reproductive technologies are directly used for breeding. With many already in use on Scottish dairy farms, we estimate that it is likely most will be mainstream in the cattle sectors by 2045. We estimate lower progress in the sheep sector reflecting the current low uptake. Stakeholders discussed the reasons for low uptake in the sheep sector are due to the extensive nature of sheep farming in Scotland and less infrastructure for sheep in this area, such as semen collection and storage, the availability of which determines uptake. In addition to this, artificial insemination (AI) in sheep requires a vet to perform a surgical procedure (in cattle it can be done by a qualified farmer), adding a practical and financial hurdle.

Table 3. Examples of reproductive technologies involved in the process of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions. Please see Appendix A, section 9.1 for the full list of the technologies found in our review.

Animal Genomics

Genomics is the study of the genome, a complete set of an organism’s DNA^[2]. Genomics provides the opportunity to better understand how well an animal will perform based on its DNA profile. DNA and management both determine performance qualities, such as milk yield. Precision breeding (which is not genetic modification) amends sections of DNA by adding or moving genetic material. This has been used in the cropping sector to improve yields and/or disease resistance. In the livestock sector, research focusses on increased resilience to bovine tuberculosis and mastitis. In 2023, England introduced The Precision Breeding Act, outlining classifications for using precision breeding on crops and livestock, including how the products from them should be regulated, “Neither the Scottish nor Welsh Parliaments have granted legislative consent to the Bill.”.

Table 4. Examples of animal genomic technologies involved in the process of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions. Please see Appendix A, section 9.1 for the full list of the technologies found in our review.

Traits

Traits are specific characteristics of an individual (physical or behavioural) that are influenced by genes and environmental factors. Understanding the traits that lead to lower methane emissions is key to a successful breeding programme for methane emissions reduction.

It should be noted that the breeding focus, and therefore traits selected, depends on the farmer’s goals. For example, breeding for breeding stock would focus on selecting offspring traits, such as calving or lambing ease, while farms producing fat or store stock would focus on product traits, such as increased liveweight gain (Stakeholder comment, 2023). Currently, most traits are associated with productivity, such as increasing milk yield in the dairy sector. Progress in the beef and sheep sectors has been much slower, with fewer examples found of genetics used in breeding programmes.

The traits in Table 5 are used for breeding in global research to reduce methane emissions directly and indirectly. We have categorised these traits into the following groups:

Production – offspring: Traits associated with reproduction.

Production – product: Traits associated with products from the animal.

Functional: Traits that underpin the function of the animal and are not specific to production or emissions improvements.

Climate: Traits directly linked to reducing methane emissions.

Stakeholders and the literature emphasised that selection for methane reduction traits should ensure production traits, such as health, are not compromised (Stakeholder comment, 2023; Llonch et al., 2017). To look into this further, we examined performance and methane efficiency data from SEMEX. For their Holstein bulls with above average methane efficiency scores, we could not identify any clear relationship between this trait and the other traits. However, this is only for one breed of cattle from one company.

1. Case study: New Zealand
2. Research in New Zealand genotyped low emitting sheep which identified traits that lead to reduced methane emission. The research found no negative impacts on physiology, productivity and health when selecting for reduced emissions.

Our research highlighted the importance of selecting for feed efficiency. Despite this trait having a lower methane reduction potential than others, it will benefit farmers through more efficient use of feed through better feed conversion (Stakeholder comment, 2023).

Table 6 presents the traits that were selected for further analysis, including quantification and the technologies used to detect or select them. Only a few of the traits found in our review were taken forward because some of the traits did not have robust emission reduction values, so were therefore excluded from our calculations.

Table 5. Traits included in breeding indexes around the world, split by sector and type.

Table 6. The quantifiable traits in each sector, with the technologies which can be used to detect or select them.

Quantifying the potential emission savings

We calculated the potential methane emission reductions under different traits for dairy, beef and sheep. Further information can be found in Appendix E.

The traits identified in our review (see Section 4.2) were further evaluated to assess their applicability to emission reduction calculations, based on requirements for defined quantification of methane emission values (either absolute or relative) and values to have a comparative emission baseline. A summary of the applicable traits used in the quantification calculations are presented in Table 7 below, with further information presented in Appendix E, Section 10.6.4.

Table 7. Traits used in the calculations of emissions savings

The current uptake of genetic traits focused on methane emissions is estimated based on our review and discussions with Scottish Government. This was based on an understanding on the currently uptake of AI and breeding technologies used within the sector from expert knowledge and limited research able to be found online. This rate provides a baseline for the quantification of additional uptake in 2030 and 2045 under four scenarios (further described in Appendix E, Section 10.6.4). The scenarios include: no additional intervention, voluntary uptake, supplier demand and policy changes. Scenario uptake percentages are presented with the current baselines in Table 8 below. These values were developed based on technical expertise and discussion with both stakeholders and Scottish Government, as well as published research. The impact of other traits (such as functional, health related traits) could not be estimated in this work as relevant values for methane reduction potential could not be identified in the literature. Further information in the calculation methodology, including additional detail on the selected scenarios, traits selected and limitations to the data is presented in Appendix E, Section 10.6.

Table 8. Scenario implementation values for dairy, beef and sheep

Baseline enteric fermentation methane emissions for beef, dairy cattle and sheep in Scotland in 2021 (totalling 4,020 kt CO2e ), show beef cattle emitted the most at 59% (2,370 kt CO2e ), sheep emitted 26% (1,061 kt CO2e ), and dairy cattle 15% of (590 kt CO2e).

Our calculations found that methane focused traits (methane production/intensity/yield) presented the highest emission reductions for all livestock categories. As the impact of the interaction between traits are unknown, reductions from traits focused on feed efficiency, offspring carcass weight (beef specific) and milk yield, milk fat and protein (dairy specific) are not presented in the maximum reduction potential. However, we acknowledge that reductions for these traits were found within the three livestock categories. Results are presented in Figure 1, Figure 2 and Figure 3 below. These figures show that in each sector, up to 2030, the reductions are relatively steady, but there is a greater reduction at 2045, influenced by the proposed increase in uptake. Due to the proposed uptake percentages the policy change scenario presents the greatest reduction under all traits, with the no intervention scenario showing the smallest reduction due to a 5% increase in uptake in 2030 and no further uptake in 2045.

In the policy change scenario, choosing climate traits, we estimate that emissions would reduce in 2045 up to 382.2 kt CO₂e or 9.5% of enteric methane emissions. This includes a 6.8% reduction from beef cattle (161.1 kt CO₂e), 6% in dairy cattle (35.4 kt CO₂e) and 17.5% in sheep (185.6 kt CO₂e). Smaller reductions are feasible from traits focused on feed efficiency, offspring carcass weight (beef specific) and milk yield, milk fat and protein (dairy specific). Further details presented in Appendix E.

Figure 1. Methane emissions for beef cattle traits against the 2021 baseline enteric methane emissions of beef cattle in Scotland. Please note the y-axes do not start at zero to allow for greater visibility of results.

Figure 2. Methane emissions for dairy traits against the 2021 baseline enteric emissions of dairy cattle in Scotland. Please note the y-axes do not start at zero to allow for greater visibility of results.

Figure 3. Methane emissions for sheep traits against the 2021 baseline enteric emissions of sheep in Scotland. Please note the y-axes do not start at zero to allow for greater visibility of results.

Identifying policy drivers and behaviour change needs

This section examines actions to encourage behaviour change. We understand that behaviour change is needed by four stakeholder groups:

1. Government, which would be policy drivers
2. Post-farm gate market, such as supermarkets, wholesalers, caterers, hospitality etc
3. Pre-farm gate, such as livestock markets, breed societies
4. Farmers

We explored how actions taken by each stakeholder group can enable further behaviour change in the other groups, and present three national level case studies to show actions that promote breeding practices to reduce methane emissions. Examples from these case studies are dispersed through the report in text boxes where the surrounding information was relevant. The countries are as follows:

• Ireland, which has incentivised and subsidised breeding practices.
• Canada, which has incentivised and subsidised breeding practices.
• New Zealand, which has started to take a regulatory approach and has incentivised breeding practices.

All three countries have strong research programmes supporting their policies.

Government action

Scottish Government have an important role in supporting uptake of new breeding techniques through policy. Below are policy drivers that can influence behaviour changes across the other stakeholder groups (post-farm gate market, pre-farm gate actors and farmers).

Legislation and targets

1. Setting a legal target for methane reduction in Scotland can help to shift the focus of the agricultural industry to methane emissions and align with climate commitments that have been made, such as the Global Methane Pledge at COP26. Other countries have set separate targets for biogenic methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide, such as New Zealand.
2. Case study: New Zealand
3. New Zealand aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and has a target to reduce biogenic methane by 10% relative to 2017 levels by 2030 and 24 – 47% by 2050. This ‘split-gas’ approach helped focus policy development and action, informed by strong research programmes and stakeholder dialogue. A split-gas approach can also give farmers flexibility to determine the most efficient, cost-effective mitigation practices for their farms (Stakeholder comment, 2023).
4. A methane target for Scotland could encourage constructive conversations among stakeholders about how to reduce emissions, leading to a higher uptake of relevant practices.

Financial incentives

The concept of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions may be new for many farmers in Scotland. Methane emissions from ruminant livestock are viewed by many as a natural part of livestock farming, particularly in upland farming systems (Bruce, 2013). Therefore, the economic benefits of breeding for reduced methane emissions will need to be clearly demonstrated to farmers.

Cost was mentioned by some stakeholders as a barrier to selecting livestock based on lower emissions. However, there was little understanding of what the specific costs are. Given this, the perceived cost of adopting new breeding techniques might become just as significant as the barrier of cost itself. However, measuring methane from individual animals in a herd using the technologies in Table 1 is labour intensive and not widely available, which creates financial and labour bottlenecks (CIEL, 2023).

6.1.2.1 Subsidies

Some stakeholders believe that new policies could drive financial incentives (Stakeholder comment, 2023). For example, payments for using the technologies presented in section 4.1.

1. Case study: Ireland
2. In Ireland, the Beef Data and Genomics Programme (BDGP) provided payments to suckler beef farmers to improve the genetic merit and GHG emissions of their herd through data collection and genotyping. It was succeeded by the Suckler Carbon Efficiency Programme.

6.1.2.2. Specific funds incentivising measuring emissions

New Zealand supported a programme via funding to enable every stud ram breeder to use PAC chambers to measure emissions. This service was oversubscribed in 2023, indicating that the adoption of measurement techniques could be encouraged by government funding.

1. Case study: New Zealand

The Cool Sheep™ Programme, launched in 2022, is a three-year programme aiming to offer genetic selection to every sheep farmer in New Zealand to reduce GHG emissions. It gathers phenotype data to provide a methane breeding value which will be available on NProve. Breeders wanting to produce low-methane rams can measure a proportion of their flock using a PAC.

6.1.2.3. Research

All three case study countries have strong Government funded research programmes. The outputs from these informs the policies and actions designed to reduce emissions. Scotland is at the forefront of research on breeding livestock for reduced methane, so this just emphasises the importance of focussing research in this area.

1. Case study: Canada
2. Canada’s Agricultural Methane Reduction Challenge will award up to $12 million CD$ to innovators designing practices, processes, and technologies to reduce enteric methane emissions.

Education and advice

Effective communication around breeding for reduced methane and the climate benefits for reducing methane are essential to support uptake. Farmers are crucial stakeholders and while some may be confident in trialling new approaches, advice must be available to help all understand why and how to implement innovative techniques on their farm, manage their farm in a new system and where to ask for help (Stakeholder comment, 2023). Training could also be provided by the private sector.

1. Case study: New Zealand
2. The Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium (PGgRc) published a series of factsheets to increase understanding of methane research.

Peer to peer learning is very successful as it provides an informal opportunity to ask practical questions of farmers who have already tried and hopefully succeeded.

1. Example: Northern Ireland farmers visit Scotland

As part of the Farm Innovation Visits, a group of dairy farmers from Northern Ireland visited farms in Scotland to see breeding technologies in practice, such as genetic reports and use of sexed semen.

Farm advisers would be essential to ensure consistent and clear messaging to farmers. Training and communication material could be provided for advisers through existing Government schemes such as the Scottish Farm Advisory Service.

Consumers should be made aware of the importance of reducing methane emissions and of the industry’s associated actions .

Behaviour change

Table 10 shows the outcome of our review on possible Government actions that could lead to behaviour change among farmers, the post-farm gate market and pre-farm gate actors. The three key actions we identified are 1) legislative targets for methane reductions, 2) financial incentives and 3) education and advice programmes.

Table 107: Behaviour changes caused by actions taken by Government

Post-farm gate market

The post-farm gate market includes supermarkets, farm shops, other retailers, consumers and food chain assurance schemes. It has an important role in supporting uptake of new breeding techniques through demonstrating demand and providing price signals. Using our review, we explored actions where the market can influence behaviour change across the other stakeholder groups.

Price signals

Stakeholders discussed the important role of supermarkets, retailers, hospitality businesses, and their suppliers and consumers as these groups can set standards for better prices or to meet customer/societal demands. For example, Tesco aims to be net zero from farm to fork by 2050 , Waitrose has committed to source only from net zero carbon farms in the UK by 2035, and Morrisons aim to be supplied by ‘Net Zero’ carbon British farms as a whole by 2030. Others along the supply chain may need to start to provide evidence of emission reductions as these different retailers and suppliers reduce their Scope 3 emissions, for example as outlined in the British Retail Consortium’s Net Zero Roadmap for the Retail Industry.

Validation of the claims through assurance schemes are important to ensure trust in the food chain. A stakeholder said, “if you take an animal to a ‘normal’ livestock market and claim it has reduced methane emissions, you’ll probably get the same price as any other animal regardless of the additional effort”.

Consumer demand

Consumers paying a premium price are likely to drive new practice adoption. Transparent communication about low emission breeding practices, supply chains and actions on farm is important to demonstrate to consumers the benefits of their choices and reduce the risk of ‘greenwashing’.

1. International example: Sweden
2. In 2022, methane-reduced beef was sold in Sweden. It was well received by consumers, selling out in less than a week. There was however backlash in the media with claims of greenwashing. This example emphasises consumers’ interests in climate-friendly options. while ensuring transparency.

Behaviour change

How the market influences other stakeholders is explored in more detail in Table 10. The key actions are 1) improved price signals from retailers and 2) increased consumer demand which is realised at the sales point.

Table 11: Behaviour changes caused by post-farm gate market actions

Pre-farm gate actors

Pre-farm gate actors refers to industry representatives, levy groups, research institutions, breed societies, and livestock markets. They have an important role in supporting uptake of new techniques through increasing understanding and supporting data collection. Below are actions that can influence behaviour change.

Improving data and data sharing

A key infrastructure need is an accessible database of genetic information, including methane emissions, to enable benchmarking (Stakeholder comment, 2023). Stakeholders noted that farmers may struggle to envision new practices on their farms, and a database can help to conceptualise the traits.

Case study: New Zealand

The ram selection tool nProve provides a user-friendly platform to select required traits in a ram, including methane production.

Existing platforms already used by farmers, such as ScotEID, the Beef Efficiency Scheme (BES), and SRUC’s genetic tool EGENES could add new elements around methane (Stakeholder comment, 2023). For example, Nprove allows farmers to assess methane elements in a user-friendly way.

The Beef Efficiency Scheme (BES) required farmers and land managers to submit tissue samples and other metrics of their beef herd to develop an understanding of the genes within the herd to improve efficiency. Uptake from the industry was low, with only 30% of the national breeding herd participating in the scheme. It currently remains unclear in the literature if the captured data has been incorporated into any local breeding schemes or progressed following the end of the scheme. This scheme could provide valuable learning on the integration of positive genetic traits across the herd in Scotland.

In our review, a stakeholder commented that as only a handful of breeds make up most of the livestock sector in Scotland, the establishment of a database would not take long to create (Stakeholder comment, 2023). This comment however shows the lack of understanding that the genetic material for breeding for methane is independent of breed and based on individual animals.

Case study: Ireland

The Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF) launched the National Genotyping Programme (NGP) in 2023 to achieve a fully genotyped cattle herd in Ireland. The programme offers beef and dairy farmers a low-cost option to collect DNA samples from calves at birth. The collected information is used to identify specific traits which contribute to national genetic indexes, including methane traits. It also allows farmers to optimise the health and productivity of their herd, while reducing the emissions intensity. The ICBF further publish methane evaluations for AI sires when methane data has been recorded.

Ireland’s NGP and New Zealand’s N Prove provide examples of the development of national databases. In Ireland, the use of metrics like Residual Methane Emissions (RME) index and predicted transmitting ability (PTA) aim to provide an easy way of comparing livestock to the average and to other farmers. Stakeholders noted that a challenge in the Scottish context could be a reluctance by stakeholders to pool data. However this has been successfully achieved in the Scottish pig industry with a number of health and productivity benefits to the individual farmers and to the sector. The NGP also allowed for subsidising DNA sampling of calves which helps to genotype the national herd

Stakeholders discussed the potential for livestock markets to display information on methane emissions. In many markets, a screen displays the weight of the animal and the name of the seller; it could be possible to add the expected or benchmarked methane emissions.

Case study: New Zealand

A methane breeding value was launched in 2019 by Beef and Lamb New Zealand, giving the sector a practical decision making tool. This led to the development of The Cool Sheep™ Programme (see section 6.1.2).

Metrics for methane emissions

Stakeholders recommend adding methane as an estimated breeding value (EBV) as this would allow farmers to benchmark. Stakeholders emphasised that metrics would only be used if they are adopted consistently across Scotland (and perhaps the UK) with cross sector collaboration and there was some incentive for farmers to reduce methane emissions from their livestock. Similarly, to the adoption of RME and PTA figures in Ireland, regulation and guidance from Scottish Government would be advisable to make sure the most sensible metric was adopted.

Case study: Ireland

Residual methane emissions (RME) index is a metric to understanding the difference between the expected methane emissions based on feed intake and the actual emissions. High RME is undesirable and low RME is desirable.

ICBF methane predicted transmitting ability (PTA) values have been produced by recording methane emissions from over 1,500 animals from 19 breeds. These are publicly available for AI beef and dairy bulls. Bulls are classed as favourable or unfavourable compared with the average sire.

Behaviour change

1. The two key take-aways from our review are 1) improved data and data sharing amongst farmers, researchers and across stakeholders and 2) developing metrics for methane emissions to enable benchmarking between farmers and products. Table 12 describes how actions by pre-farm gate actors could support behaviour change among other stakeholders.

Table 12: Behaviour change due to actions taken by the pre-farm gate actors

Farmers

Farmer behaviour change in this context relates to choosing animals with low methane traits to breed, and implementing systems on farm that support this. Some farmers could measure emissions from their livestock to verify the effectiveness of breeding for reduced emissions. Uptake of technologies outlined in section 4 provides the opportunity to better track genetics and traits in their herd.

Farmers will need support to make these changes and to enable behaviour change from the pre-market, post-market and government stakeholder groups identified in the sections above. In addition, the adoption of new practices will likely vary between dairy, beef and sheep producers, and the challenges they face will be different. Farmers who are already using reproductive technologies, such as sexed semen and AI, are expected to progress fastest in this area, given their familiarity with the processes. It is likely that the dairy sector will lead the way, and to a smaller extent, the beef sector. Rapid uptake of AI (and therefore sexed semen) in the sheep sector faces practical challenges, therefore it may be best to prioritise low-emitting traits in rams.

The financial benefit of farmers selecting methane traits is currently unclear. It is likely that the primary motivation will come from the supply chain; it will be important to have specific supply chain indicators. For example, if a milk buyer sets methane reduction goals, suppliers will need to respond. Behaviour change is also influenced by seeing neighbours or peers taking on new practices for example. Below are some points for each of the different livestock sectors groups that should be considered to enable the behaviour change actions identified in the previous sections.

Cummins et al (2022) advise that further research is needed on how breeding for low methane emissions affects the productive and profitable genes that make an animal appealing to farmers. However, research in New Zealand on genotyped low emitting sheep showed no negative impacts on physiology, productivity and health when selecting for reduced emissions and preliminary economic analysis shows that low-emitting sheep could lead to higher profits, primarily due to higher growth rates, a greater proportion of meat, and increased wool production. This section also briefly covers some actions that could be undertaken on farm to support farmers to shift to breeding lower methane emitting livestock.

Sheep farmers

Sheep farmers deal with a large number of animals which tend to be farmed extensively in Scotland, so using methane detecting technologies is potentially more difficult than for other livestock sectors. Despite this challenge, the shorter time to slaughter means that low-emitting traits can be introduced regularly and methane reductions can accumulate quickly (Stakeholder comment, 2023). In addition, other countries such as New Zealand have implemented programmes to begin to measure the national flock such as The Cool Sheep Programme (see section 6.1.2). Stakeholders discussed how the sheep sector produces a lower-value product compared to the cattle sector, so cash flow may be a prohibiting factor in taking on new practices.

Beef farmers

Stakeholders asserted that the beef sector is complicated by several commercial interests in the market which influence genetic improvement. Unlike the dairy sector, AI is not widely used in the beef sector (Stakeholder comment, 2023). However, there are opportunities to influence the genetics of the herd by encouraging bull breeders or bull stud farms to take on practices to support low-emitting traits.

As it is common for dairy cow offspring to enter the beef system, there is the opportunity to use lower emitting dairy animals to feed into emissions reductions in the beef sector (Stakeholder comment, 2023).

Dairy farmers

The dairy sector is the most advanced ruminant sector in using genetic technology and tools for selective breeding. For example, AI is fairly common practice, currently with the objective of increasing productivity rather than targeting emissions. Progress in the sheep and beef sectors is much slower due to challenges around practicalities, sufficient data and uptake of technologies in these sectors. The dairy industry also has a steadier cashflow than beef and sheep (Stakeholder comment, 2023), and is more progressive when it comes to real-time data collection and data management. This puts the dairy sector in a good position to advance breeding for reduced methane emissions.

Cross-farm actions to support breeding lower methane livestock

Strong and structured communication, sharing of ideas and engagement locally are important drivers to enable behaviour change in farming communities. Peer to peer support, for example through breeding groups, to share ideas, showcase technologies and discuss successful and disappointing technologies will enable neighbours and other local farmers to progress faster. Organising local workshops, either by Government supported advisers or leading farmers, would help to spread the word about the importance of breeding for reduced emissions and provide practical examples. The more discussion about the overall aim, the need to reduce emissions, the potential actions, outcomes and successes, the more likely that breeding for reduced methane emissions will become mainstream.

Gaps in the research

We identified the following gaps in research:

• Timeline of availability for the technologies. Due to a lack of robust information in many cases, we made an expert judgement on the availability of the technologies in Scotland up to 2030 and 2045.
• Quantified impact of introducing methane traits in case study countries. We did not find evidence for the actions and policies introduced in the case study countries reducing overall country emissions. A reason for this is that many of the examples presented in the case studies in the appendices are very recent, therefore there has not been enough time to quantify the emission savings. In addition, it could be challenging to see whether these actions had a specific impact emissions due to other surrounding factors, for example changes in stocking rate, or outbreak in disease.
• Evidence for current level of uptake in Scotland and the UK. The review did not find much evidence for current levels of uptake of breeding livestock for reduced emissions.
• Mitigation potentials of some traits. Many sources did not present methane emission values, but instead covered genetic correlations between traits. This meant that due to a lack of data many of the traits identified in the REA (see Table 5) were excluded from quantification. In other cases, some mitigation potentials were not comparative to the baseline used in our study because it presented changes from an entire lifecycle or system.
• The interaction between traits. Emission calculations were quantified for individual traits, rather than combining the mitigation potential for all traits because the relationship and interaction between traits is unknown.
• Due to the smaller quantity of literature available on methane efficiency focused traits, the reduction potential values may be less robust. Greater consistency in measurement, modelling, and presentation and their impacts on emissions savings and animal production would fill this knowledge gap.

Conclusions

We estimate that, by 2045, breeding for reduced methane emissions could achieve a reduction in enteric methane emissions of 9.5% from the baseline, including 6.8% reduction from beef, 6% from dairy and 17.5% from sheep assuming livestock numbers remain constant. This would be achieved by selecting breeding traits for methane efficiency (methane production, intensity and yield), feed efficiency, offspring carcass weight, milk yield and milk fat and protein. Selecting for these traits brings cumulative and permanent emission savings. A limited number of studies researched the impacts of selecting low-methane traits on productivity and health and found that these qualities were not compromised.

Scotland has a well-developed research base around breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions, placing it in good stead in developing further work and providing validation and trust. Research programmes in New Zealand, Canada and Ireland have successfully interacted with farmers, for example, by the development of user-friendly, accessible tools. Our stakeholder comments implies that a comparable interaction between research and on-farm activities and innovation is currently lacking in Scotland.

To achieve the emissions reductions, actions and behaviour change will be required by four stakeholder groups: Scottish Government, pre- and post-farm gate industry and markets, and farmers. Change will need to be co-created across the stakeholder groups.

The financial benefit of farmers selecting methane traits remains uncertain. Therefore, it is likely that the primary motivation will be the supply chain which will need supply chain indicators. For example, if a milk buyer sets methane reduction goals, suppliers will need to respond. Behaviour change is also influenced by neighbours or peers taking on new practices.

The key barriers to uptake are around knowledge and perceived cost. To alleviate these, Government funding could be targeted towards more data collection and research with farmer involvement to improves robustness. Investment in adviser training and farmer peer-to-peer will enable local farmers to progress faster. Organising local workshops, either by Government supported advisers or leading farmers, would help to spread the word about the importance of breeding for reduced emissions and provide practical examples. The more discussion about the overall aim, the actions, outcomes and successes, the more likely it is that breeding for reduced methane emissions will become mainstream.

The technologies we estimate could be mainstream by 2030 include a national breeding programme, sexed semen, artificial insemination (AI) and estimated breeding values (EBVs). However, their success will be about but the interactions between them. For example, data will inform EVBs, which in turn will inform a national breeding programme. If the constant use of methane detecting technologies is required, this may be difficult to implement in extensive farming systems. However, if a proxy measurement was used or the breeding stock was known to provide the necessary traits, this would allow existing systems to continue.

On this basis, we think there is a strong foundation for breeding for reduced emissions to become part of Scottish Government’s commitments.

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Appendix / Appendices

Technologies involved in breeding for reduced methane, full tables

Table 13. Examples of the detection methods involved in the process of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions.

Table 14. Examples of data management tools involved in the process of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions.

Table 15. Examples of reproductive technologies involved in the process of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions.

Table 16. Examples of animal genomics involved in the process of breeding livestock for reduced methane emissions.

Appendix A: REA and stakeholder interviews methodology

REA methodology

The REA methodology used for this project aligned with NERC methodology (Collins et al., 2015) and comprised of the following steps.

1. Define the search strategy protocol, identify key search words or terms, define inclusion/exclusion criteria. This step helped to focus the review on the most relevant sources. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were also defined. For example, studies related to reducing emissions through feed additives were excluded.
2. Searching for evidence and recording findings. Due to the short timescales of this REA, we searched for literature using Google Scholar, utilising our accounts with Science Direct and Research Gate to access restricted pdfs where required. For each search, we recorded the date, search string and number of results found, each search string was assigned a reference number. Examples of search strings include:
   1. breeding for reduced methane emissions
   2. policy drivers for reduced methane emissions in livestock “breeding”
   3. breeding for reduced methane emissions in livestock “Scotland”
3. Screening. Evidence was then screened, initially by title and a selection of sources were screened by the abstract, applying the criteria developed in step 1. This step ensures the relevance and robustness of the evidence that was included in the study.
4. Extract and appraise the evidence. Evidence was then extracted from the papers after screening, this included methane reduction values, traits that lead to reduced emissions and the technologies involved in the process.

Stakeholder interview methodology

Stakeholder interviews were used to collect information that may have been absent from the literature, for example on trials currently taking place that will not yet be included in publications. The stakeholders included researchers and individuals from farmer representative groups. We invited farmers for interview, however, only confirmed one farmer for an interview.

The semi-structured interviews took place over Microsoft Teams, with questions covering all parts of the study. For instance, asking for views on the key traits to select for, any examples of farmers choosing livestock based on emissions and the benefits and risks.

We did seven one-to-one interviews (with four stakeholders based in Scotland) and a group interview with nine stakeholders, all located in Scotland. The group interview was done to allow space for conversation and discussion between stakeholders. During this meeting, we presented the key themes raised in the one-to-one interviews. This included the barriers and drivers to uptake, the availability of technologies and the structural needs to support uptake.

Appendix B: New Zealand sheep case study

Country information

New Zealand is an island nation in the South Pacific and has many similarities to Scotland in terms of its geography and climate. Agriculture is integral to the New Zealand economy with the sector accounting for 10% of gross domestic product (GDP), over 65% of export revenue and almost 12% of the workforce. In 2023 there were 26,821,846 sheep in New Zealand, down from approximately 70,000,000 in the 1980s.

Around half of GHG emissions in New Zealand (49% in 2021) and 91% of biogenic methane emissions stem from agriculture, with sheep farming a key contributor.

New Zealand has relevant international and domestic emissiontargets, including the Global Methane Pledge, and the Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Act 2019, which sets a net zero target by 2050. There is a specific reduction target for biogenic methane of 10% relative to 2017 levels by 2030, and 24 – 47% by 2050. New Zealand also has emissions’ budgets and emissions’ reduction plans which sets out policies and strategies for meeting the budgets.

Accelerating new mitigations such as breeding for low-methane sheep is seen as an important way to reduce emissions alongside the pricing of agriculture emissions, as well as support initiatives.

Relevant research, programmes and technologies

The New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre (NZAGRC) and the Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium (PGgRc) are key leaders in the robust and comprehensive programme of research in New Zealand.

• The NZAGRC is a Government funded centre which invests and coordinates research for practical and cost-effective reductions of agricultural GHG. One of its main targets of reducing enteric methane emissions.
• The PGgRc is a joint initiative of the New Zealand Government and the agricultural sector which funds research into ways to reduce methane emissions, including from sheep, such as breeding. It also provides knowledge and tools for farmers to help mitigate GHG, for instance research reports (‘Sheep farmers now able to breed “low methane” sheep’), and fact sheets, with the aim of increasing understanding around the research.

The NZAGRC and PGgRc led the following research programmes related to breeding for reduced methane emissions:

• Low emitting sheep were genotyped and markers were used to identify low emitting traits which confirmed a genetic basis for the variation in methane emissions. After 13 years of selecting for low emitting traits, a 16% difference in methane emissions was found between low and high emitting sheep. Other key findings include no negative impacts on physiology, productivity and health when selecting for reduced emissions. Predications have also been made that with the low emitting flock a 1% decrease in methane emissions per year is achievable The low emitting flock has been producing more wool and leaner meat and the emissions savings are both permanent and cumulative. This programme is ongoing and has produced one of the most comprehensive datasets in the world.
• A methane breeding value was launched in 2019 from research undertaken by NZAGRC and PGRC. This was made available to selected ram breeders through Beef + Lamb Genetics and gives the sector a practical tool to make decisions with. This has then led to the development of the Cool Sheep Programme.
• The Cool Sheep™ Programme was launched in 2022. This three-year programme aims to provide every sheep farmer in New Zealand the chance to use genetic selection to reduce GHG emissions. As well as supporting farmers, this programme gathers phenotype data which feeds back into research. This is available to farmers who are reviewing rams for selection on N Prove. Breeders wanting to produce low-methane rams do so by measuring a proportion of their flock using PAC. When combined with other information and sheep genotyping, this is used to provide a methane breeding value. In November 2023, bookings for use of the PAC chambers by stud breeders were fully subscribed, indicating uptake is high. They note that progress is slow in terms of methane emissions reduction around 2-3% per year, with single trait selection, although this is cumulative.

The four workstreams of the project are:

1. Ram supply: Measuring rams with PAC to make low-emitting rams available for breeding.
2. nProve enhancement: adding methane to nProve.nz.
3. National Impact: using GHG calculators on farms to show methane reductions, rewarding farmers for their efforts.
4. Awareness and outreach: increasing knowledge for farmers, improving public awareness of efforts to reduce emissions while improving national productivity.

Key policies

There is no government policy legislating livestock breeding for reduced methane emissions in New Zealand. However, there are policies that that may contribute to introducing this in the future.

The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) is a key tool in New Zealand to help reduce emissions. Under the ETS, businesses must measure and report on their GHG emissions, and surrender one ‘emissions unit’ (an NZU) to the Government for each tonne of emissions emitted. They do this by purchasing NZU. The Government sets and reduces the number of NZU supplied into the scheme over time. This limits the quantity that emitters can emit, in line with emission reduction targets. Businesses who participate in the ETS can also buy and sell units from each other i.e. emitters can buy NZU from forestry companies or farmers to offset emissions. The price for units reflects supply and demand in the scheme. All sectors of New Zealand’s economy, apart from agriculture, pay for their emissions through their ETS surrender obligations. The agriculture sector must report its emissions but does not have surrender obligations.

Currently, no major incentive exists for agricultural producers to reduce their emissions. The ETS was not seen as the right mechanism to price agricultural emissions.

Instead, Government, industry representatives and Māori formed the He Waka Eke Noa – Primary Sector Climate Action Partnership (the Partnership) to reduce agricultural emissions. It is committed to designing an on-farm pricing system that ensures New Zealand’s agricultural products remain internationally competitive while reducing emissions.

Key Stakeholders

Key stakeholders involved in the research, technologies, programmes and policies include:

• Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Research Centre, Government-funded centre which invests and coordinates research for reductions of agricultural GHG.
• Crown Research Institutes, Crown-owned companies that carry out scientific research.
• Beef + Lamb New Zealand, a farmer-owned, industry organisation representing New Zealand’s sheep and beef farmers.
• Dairy Companies Association of New Zealand, representing dairy manufacturing and exporting companies.
• Dairy NZ, industry organisation that represents all dairy farmers.
• Farmers.
• He Pou a Rangi – Climate Change Commission, an independent Crown entity that provides advice to government on climate issues
• Iwi Māori, tribal entities and largest social units in Māori society that represent a group of people and land area
• Māori Landowner groups, groups that represent Māori land that is governed and protected under specific statutes
• Meat Industry Association, voluntary trade association representing red meat processors, marketers and exporters
• Ministry for the Environment, New Zealand Government’s primary adviser on environmental matters
• Pastoral Greenhouse Gas Research Consortium, provides knowledge and tools for farmers, to mitigate GHG
• Public
• Scientists and academics

Successes of research, technologies, programmes and policies

There are many successes in New Zealand for identifying emissions savings, policy drivers and behaviour change which would lead to improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• Full subscription of the Cool Sheep programme to use genetic selection to reduce GHG emissions highlights the keen interest in this programme from farmers

Research indicated that sheep can be bred to produce less methane without sacrificing productivity.

Within the proposal for emission pricing, there have been the following successes that are likely to help drive behaviour change to uptake methane emission reduction breeding selection:

• A farm level, split-gas levy gives farmers flexibility to determine the most efficient, cost-effective mitigation practices for their farms (Stakeholder comment, 2023).
• The He Waka Eke Noa partnership involved key stakeholders discussing practical solutions to reducing emissions (Stakeholder comment, 2023).
• While a policy for pricing agricultural emissions has not yet been legislated and implemented, discussions about a policy helped make New Zealand farmers more aware of their emissions and how to manage them.

Challenges of research, technologies, programmes and policies

There are some challenges with the New Zealand scenario that are relevant for identifying emissions savings, policy drivers and behaviour change which would lead to improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• The fully prescribed uptake of the Cool Sheep programme in 2023 may highlight potential challenges with sourcing enough infrastructure to support all farmers interested in the programme.

In particular, there are challenges related to the agriculture emissions pricing:

Mitigation options under proposed policies are more currently more suited to dairy farmers than sheep and beef farmers.

The sheep and beef sectors are expected to be impacted by the pricing of emissions more than other farming sectors. There are likely to be disproportionate impacts on Māori due to the large proportion of Māori ownership in the sheep and beef sectors and historical context.

Potentially ancillary challenges and unforeseen challenges from the proposal such as environmental and social challenges due to land use changes due to the need to reduce emissions i.e. increased planting of forest may lead to landscapes changes etc.

The recent change in Government has posed a challenge. The 2025 implementation target for implementing the pricing of emissions is expected to be pushed back until 2030 (Stakeholder comment, 2023) and uptake of other methane related programmes could waver too.

Relevance in Scotland

There are some key learnings from the New Zealand scenario that are relevant for identifying emissions savings, policy drivers and behaviour change which would lead to improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• At this stage, it is hard to determine exactly what has encouraged uptake of the Cool Sheep Programme and PAC measurements by sheep farmers. However it is assumed that discussions around agriculture emissions pricing and increased awareness, as well as financial assistance, has no doubt contributed to uptake.
• The He Waka Eke Noa partnership highlighted that each livestock sector has different requirements. In Scotland, for example, stakeholders interviewed for this project suggested that it may be difficult to introduce breeding practices in the sheep sector due to its extensive nature. In addition, there is less frequent cashflow in the sheep and beef sectors compared to dairy, making it more difficult to introduce new practices. In New Zealand suggestions have been made that the dairy industry has had a better lobbying influence in the development of the policy than the sheep and beef industry and have been more successful at influencing a policy that better suits their needs (Stakeholder comment, 2023). Therefore, any consultations or partnerships must include different livestock types and stakeholders, and consider the differences between upland or lowland systems.

New Zealand is one of the first countries in the world to attempt to price agriculture emissions therefore can provide a huge amount of learning that should be considered by Scotland in developing policy around methane reduction.

Having an emissions number to reduce from makes it easier to see how actions will impact. This will encourage the consideration of emission reductions as part of general on-farm decision making, on-farm investment decisions and other considerations.

• The policy impacts on certain farmers and Māori may be of relevance to island farmers and crofters with unique challenges, who may be disproportionately impacted by any climate policies in Scotland.
• Research from the NZAGRC and the PGgRc has produced schemes like the Cool Sheep Programme.
• The ram selection tool nProve provides a user-friendly platform for farmers to select the traits they want from a ram, including methane production. It gives farmers a tool to compare emissions between different animals before purchasing a ram, bull or semen. Because of the Cool Sheep programme and because there are planned policies to reduce emissions, there may be an incentive to use this metric. It may be possible to build on existing tools such as ScotEID and RamCompare in the future to create a similar platform (not only for sheep).

A policy for pricing agricultural emissions has not yet been legislated and therefore whether it has/will contribute to reduced emissions is yet to be realised. However government modelling suggests that the levy could achieve sufficient emissions reductions to meet or exceed methane targets. Discussions about a policy helped make New Zealand farmers more aware of their emissions and how to manage them.

Appendix C: Canada dairy case study

Country information

Canada has similarities in climate and geography to Scotland. Agriculture is a key aspect of the Canadian economy with agriculture and the agri-food system generating $143.8 billion Canadian Dollars (CD$) (around 7%) of Canada’s GDP. Canada is also the fifth-largest exporter of agri-food and seafood in the world. Dairy is a key part of the sector and is a top commodity in five of Canada’s provinces/territories.

In 2020, agriculture was responsible for 30% of Canada’s total methane emissions, with 86% of that being attributed to enteric fermentation. Canada has an emissions reduction target of 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and to be net-zero by 2050 and joined the Global Methane Pledge. The advocacy group, Dairy Farmers of Canada, have voluntarily set a goal to reach net-zero by 2050.

Description of relevant research, programmes and technologies

Canada is undertaking research and programmes focused on breeding and new genomic technologies for reduced methane emissions in dairy production systems:

• The Efficient Dairy Genome Project (EDGP) developed genomic-based methods for selecting dairy cattle with reduced methane emissions and improved feed efficiency. The project was underpinned by an extensive database used for genomic analysis. For example, correlating MIR with reduced methane emissions. The project also recognised the necessity of featuring the economic, environmental and social benefits of selecting for reduced methane emissions.
• The Resilient Dairy Genome Project (RDGP) aims to integrate genomic approaches to improve dairy cattle resilience and industry sustainability. The project builds on the EDGP, with a focus on additional data collection, management and visualisation to support genomic analyses. Researchers noted an essential component is understanding the interaction between enteric methane emissions and specific farm conditions. For example, predicting methane emissions of individual animals and whole herds using milk MIR spectroscopy. By acknowledging the crucialness of collaboration with industry partners, the project will ensure results will render user-friendly products to enable technological uptake.
• An ongoing commercial endeavour between genetic evaluation provider, Lactanet Canada and genetics supplier, Semex Alliance aims to develop a reliable methane efficiency index that can be easily integrated with common selection indices such as fertility, disease resistance and lifetime profitability.

Description of key policies related to reducing methane emissions through breeding

There are currently no government policies legislating livestock breeding for reduced methane emissions in Canada, however there are some policies that are likely to eventually incentivise it.

• Agricultural Methane Reduction Challenge provided funding awarding up to $12 million CD$ to innovators designing practices, processes, and technologies to reduce enteric methane emissions.

Key Stakeholders

Key stakeholders involved in the research, technologies, programmes and policies include:

• Dairy Farmers of Canada, an advocacy group represent over 10,000 dairy farms, and have set a goal to reach net-zero by 2050
• National Farmers Union, representing Canadian farmers to achieve policy and reform
• Semex the world’s largest provider of cattle genetics
• Genome Canada, a non-profit organisation funding EDGP and RDGP
• University of Guelph, and University of Alberta, orchestrate EDGP and RDGP

Successes of research, technologies, programmes and policies

There are many successes in the Canadian scenario that are relevant to identifying potential emissions savings, and in identifying policy drivers and behaviour change which would lead to improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• Researchers from the EDGP and RDGP recorded enteric methane emissions of reference populations predominantly via a GreenFeed system, a device measuring air composition exhaled by each cow during feeding. Exploiting the correlation between milk composition and emissions instigated the proposal of a genomic evaluation of methane efficiency without sacrificing other production traits. The projects demonstrated a 30% difference either side of average in enteric methane emissions between Holstein cows. This result highlights the importance of genetic selection if breeding for reduced methane emissions is to be an effective option.
• Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) between research and industry can be accredited for the establishment of Canada’s major EDGP and RDGP, and were paramount in the development of the sophisticated database. Stakeholders Lactanet Canada and Semex Alliance effectively utilised this database, and in April 2023, Canada became the first country in the world to commercially market dairy semen containing methane efficiency as a relative breeding value (RBV). Their database and AI catalogue now includes 26 Holstein bulls with proven methane reduction capabilities, and a further 165 predicted. Semex Alliance also estimate widespread adoption of the low-methane trait could reduce methane emissions from Canada’s dairy herd by 1.5% annually, and up to 20-30% by 2050. The collective effort of all members of the Canadian dairy industry has enabled significant progression, to which the inclusion of a methane efficiency genetic valuation can be traced to.
• A GHG Offset Credit System can incentivise farmers to undertake innovative projects that reduce GHGs for financial reward.

Challenges of research, technologies, programmes and policies

There are some challenges with the Canadian scenario that are relevant to identifying potential emissions savings, and in identifying policy drivers and behaviour change for improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• Scottish dairy farmers will likely question the validity of the two major Canadian research projects, as the methane efficiency RBV derives from controlled experimental environments. While this research does account for breed type, it does not reflect Scottish production systems including specific types of feed, pasture type and composition, etc, which may lead to lack of assurance. Furthermore, some Canadian dairy industry officials believe that cattle selected for reduced enteric CH₄ emissions may develop digestion problems, an allegation which generates considerable doubt of widespread adoption success.

Relevance in Scotland

There are some key learnings from the Canadian scenario that are relevant for Scotland in terms of identifying potential emissions savings, and in identifying policy drivers and behaviour change for improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• When compared to other livestock sectors, the data gathering process in the dairy industry is unique as daily milking and feeding activities provide a non-invasive opportunity to measure individual animals without major management changes. Coupling the simplistic nature of data collection with advanced existing genetic databases and the widespread use of artificial insemination (AI), the Scottish dairy industry is capable of reducing enteric methane emissions efficiently. Applying knowledge or making predictions from existing information has great potential to eliminate and/or significantly reduce cost, data collection periods and the requirement of on-farm experimentation.
• Genetic change is a simple and low-cost approach to reduce enteric methane emissions in dairy production systems. Owing to modern technologies and transport capabilities, the methane efficiency RBV developed in Canada is compatible with the Scottish dairy herd and can be purchased and administered via AI to help begin reducing enteric methane emissions.
• Canada has precedented instigating good working relationships with farmers, a goal achieved by highlighting the primary objective of research is to enhance industry sustainability. In response, many Canadian dairy farmers have also recognised constructive engagement with research and industry is fundamental. The establishment of a comprehensive and transparent database has provided assurance and confidence to adopt new best management practices.
• Scotland could consider monitoring the effectiveness of the Offset Credit System currently being considered in Ottawa to see if it incentivises behaviour change or changes finances and markets.
• Canada does not currently offer incentives for low-methane cattle breeding, and livestock breeders do not charge a premium for methane efficiency traits. However, discussions on this topic are ongoing between stakeholders and policy makers and it is looking likely a financial benefit will be introduced in the future.

Appendix D: Ireland beef case study

Country information

Ireland has a similar climate and geography to Scotland. Agriculture is key aspect of the Irish economy with the agriculture, forestry and fishing GDP valued at €3,672m in 2020. In 2020, 55% of farms were specialist beef, with many others including cattle as part of a mixed farm.

In 2022, agriculture was responsible for 38.4% of GHG emissions, making it the sector with the biggest share of emissions. 62.6% was caused by enteric fermentation.

Ireland is part of the Global Methane pledge and legally obliged as an EU Member State to reduce emissions under the EU’s Effort Sharing Regulation, including in agriculture. Ireland’s 2030 target is to deliver at least a 42% reduction by 2030 compared to 2005 levels.

Ireland has developed the Food Vision 2030 Strategy for the Irish agri-food sector which commits to reducing biogenic methane. This includes the ‘Ag Climatise’ Roadmap, covering animal breeding, with an aim to genotype the entire national herd by 2030 to develop and enhance dairy and beef breeding programmes.

Description of relevant research, programmes and technologies

The Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF) launched the National Genotyping Programme (NGP) for cattle in 2023. This offers beef and dairy farmers a low-cost option to collect DNA samples from calves at birth which can be used for genotyping to identify specific traits or characteristics. The aim of the programme is to achieve a fully genotyped herd in Ireland. This has made national genetic indexes available to farmers, including methane traits. It also allows farmers to optimise the health and productivity of their herd, reducing its emissions intensity. The ICBF also publish methane evaluations for AI sires that have had methane data recorded.

Teagasc has an important role in the research in Ireland. Animal breeding is one of the four solutions from Teagasc to reduce methane emissions from livestock. Current research projects include:

• GREENBREED: Measured methane at the Tully Progeny Test centre using a GreenFeed automated head chamber system. This research led to the publication of genomic evaluations for methane emissions in Irish beef cattle and sheep. It found notable differences in methane emissions from livestock being fed the same diet, 11% of these in cattle were found to be due to genetic differences. This indicates that breeding programmes to reduce methane will be effective in Ireland.
• Collaborative research by Teagasc and ICBF found a 30% difference in methane emissions from beef cattle of a similar size. This lead to the residual methane emissions (RME)[10] index being identified as a metric to rank animals.

Description of key policies

There is no legislation on livestock breeding for reduced methane emissions in Ireland, but the following policies related to GHGs may support this.

• The Beef Data and Genomics Programme (BDGP) paid suckler farmers to improve the genetic merit of their herd through data collection and genotyping, with the aim of lowering GHG emissions by improving quality and efficiency.
  • Payments were made of €142.50/ha for the first 6.66 ha and €120/ha for the remaining eligible hectares (the equivalent of €95 for the first 10 cows and €80 for the remaining cows), farmers have to undertake specific requirements.
  • These requirements include calf registration, detailed surveys of animal characteristics, genotyping and tissue tag sampling, and implementing a replacement strategy based on high genetic merit animals.
  • Additional support in the form of the carbon navigator decision making tool and training courses for farmers are also provided.
  • Participants of the programme were found to be achieving improvements at a faster rate compared to farms not taking part. The impact of the programme can help to promote smaller, more efficient suckler cows to produce more efficient beef.
• The Suckler Carbon Efficiency Programme:

As part of its Common Agriculture Policy Strategic Plan (CSP), Ireland developed ENVCLIM (70) 53SCEP as a follow-on from the BDGP, providing support to beef farmers who implement breeding actions that aim to lower the overall GHG emissions. The BDGP was shown to deliver on both environmental and productive efficiency and emissions per suckler cow are being reduced through breeding strategies. Another measure in the CSP, 53SCT, targets training to complement the Suckler Carbon Efficiency Programme.

Key Stakeholders

Key stakeholders involved in the research, technologies, programmes and policies include:

• Teagasc, Agriculture and Food Development Authority providing research, advisory and training to the agriculture and food industry and rural communities.
• Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine, Irish government department leading, developing and regulating the agri-food sector, protecting public health and optimising social, economic and environmental benefits.
• Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF), non-profit organisation charged with providing cattle breeding information services.
• Irish Environmental Protection Agency, independent public body to protect, improve and restore the environment through regulation, scientific knowledge and working with others.
• Irish Farmers Association, Ireland’s largest farming representative organisation.
• Farmers.
• Food Vision Sheep and Beef Group, group of stakeholders established by the Minister for Agriculture Food and the Marine to identify measures that the sector can take to contribute to reducing emissions from the agricultural sector

Successes of research, technologies, programmes and policies

There are many successes in the Irish scenario that are relevant to identifying potential emissions savings, and in identifying policy drivers and behaviour change which would lead to improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• The NGP is a useable database of genotyped methane information available for farmers to use. This is the result of comprehensive research programmes, collaboration between breed societies, and creating useful systems for farmers to benefit from. Making this data easily available to all farmers across Ireland can encourage behaviour change and is a successful programme that could be considered in Scotland. The creation of the ICBF has been essential for this, as it means there is one body overseeing all genotyping and data storage.
• The BDGP is an example of how payments to farmers can be used to gather data and reward farmers for adopting positive practices.
• Research from GREENBREED indicates that breeding programs to reduce methane emissions will be effective for selecting low-emitting livestock, especially combined with the national genomic evaluations, and will have no negative impact on performance and profitability.
• Ireland has produced methane evaluations to enable farmers to identify opportunities to reduce emissions and improve the sustainability of their enterprise.
• Overall, the authors did not find evidence of a quantifiable impact from introducing methane related actions and policies. This may be because the relevant research, programmes and technologies as mentioned above are still relatively new and it is too early to quantify. For example, the NGP is to only be completed by 2027, whereas following on from data collected from methane evaluations, methods are still being developed on how best to incorporate methane traits into beef and dairy production.

Challenges of research, technologies, programmes and policies

Additional research would be required to understand how the policies and programmes were received by farmers and how successful the agricultural community views them to be. We contacted Ireland representatives for involvement in stakeholder interviews however we did not get a response.

Relevance to Scotland

There are some key learnings from Ireland that are relevant for Scotland in terms of identifying potential emissions savings, and in identifying policy drivers and behaviour change for improved breeding for reduced emissions.

• A national database was suggested by Scottish stakeholders (Stakeholder comment, 2023). Therefore, Ireland’s NGP provides an example for Scotland if this was to develop. In particular:
• The use of metrics like Residual methane emissions (RME) index and

predicted transmitting ability (PTA) could give Scottish farmers and crofters an easy way of comparing their livestock to other farmers and understanding where they are compared to the average.

• Challenges in the Scottish context could include reluctance on the part of different breed societies to pool data.
• Ireland have shown that emissions for cattle can be reduced through appropriate breeding strategies and incentives for farmers. Such as subsidising DNA sampling of calves which helps to genotype the national herd.
• The creation of the Food Vision Beef and Sheep Group to chart a path for the sector to meet the emissions emission targets is a potential model for ways that Scotland might bring key stakeholders into the development of key policies to reduce emissions.
• The main ways behaviour change has been encouraged is by making the programmes and policies mentioned above easy to access, for example, the ICBF also provides information to help farmers make decisions about their herd through HerdPlus.
• The BDGP and CSP provides training to farmers who are using the scheme, for which funding is provided.

Appendix E: Methodology and results for the quantification of potential emission savings

Methane emission savings are achievable through breeding and new genomic technologies. The main sources of methane from cattle and sheep in Scotland are enteric fermentation and managed manures. We have chosen to focus our calculations on emissions from enteric fermentation for two reasons:

1. Methane emissions from managed manures are much smaller.
2. Changes to livestock by selecting traits which lead to lower methane emissions will have a greater impact on the emissions from enteric fermentation rather than the emissions produced from livestock manures.

To align with the CCP’s targets, of achieving net zero in Scotland by 2045 and a 75% reduction in emissions by 2030, we present data for potential emission reductions for 2030 and 2045. The following data were used to quantify the potential emission savings:

• Key traits leading to reduced methane emissions, from the REA.
• Methane reduction values associated with traits, from the REA.
• Note: A particular challenge was identifying emission reduction values that were associated with specific traits, that we could use in our calculations. We have used the data available to draw conclusions.
• Baseline emissions data for Scotland from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI, 2023).
• Uptake values (sector specific) for adoption of chosen traits through breeding, based on findings in the REA, stakeholder interviews and expert judgement.

Baseline methane emissions

To calculate the baseline methane emissions for dairy, beef and sheep, the enteric fermentation emissions of the livestock types for Scotland in 2021 were extracted from the NAEI (2023)^[11]. 

Current uptake rate for adoption of traits

The current uptake rate is an estimated current baseline based on evidence gathered in the REA review of evidence and technical knowledge. This provides a baseline for additional uptake under the scenarios presented below.

Current uptake is set at 75% for dairy cattle, due to the high usage of reproductive technologies (see Section 4.1.3), in particular use of sexed semen and artificial insemination (AI) using Holstein Friesian semen, a key breed which already has proven methane efficiency ratings published as part of the breeding profile. It is understood that methane efficiency ratings are also being developed for other key dairy breeds as observed on UK dairy and beef cattle semen sales websites.

Beef cattle uptake has been set at a 40% baseline as findings show that methane efficiency ratings are less regularly published as part of the beef breed profile on UK semen sales websites. However, artificial insemination of beef cattle is relatively common, although it is not a standard practice as in the dairy industry. It is understood adoption of breeding for reduced emissions is developing and evidence is being gathered (see Section 4).

The current baseline for sheep has been set at 10% based on a comparison with New Zealand where there is an uptake rate of 30% (Rowe et al. in 2020). Following discussions with Scottish Government it is acknowledged that there is some technology usage around the world, but that adoption in Scotland is not yet as high as in New Zealand. Therefore, 10% has been chosen as the baseline. This links to understanding of technology uptake in Section 4.

Scenarios

The quantification of emissions savings was based on four different scenarios to reflect various levels of uptake:

• The no intervention scenario reflects an increase in uptake of 5% from the current baseline by 2030 and remains at the same level until 2045 for all livestock types.
• The voluntary uptake scenario is designed to reflect levels of uptake expected with no other push such as a financial incentive or a relevant policy.  This scenario reflects a 5% increase in uptake from the current baseline by 2030, and an additional 5% increase in uptake by 2045 for all livestock types.
• The supplier demand scenario is based on companies along the supply chain offering financial incentives to farmers that implement breeding techniques to reduce methane emissions.  This value is set at a mid-point between the voluntary uptake and the regulatory scenario.
• The policy changes scenario represents the uptake where legislation has been introduced that will require farmers to introduce methane reducing breeding techniques to their herds. This scenario reflects a 10% increase in uptake from the current baseline by 2030. By 2045 it is assumed there would be 100% uptake for dairy cattle due to the large-scale usage of AI within the industry and progress seen on methane efficiency profiling already published within the key breed profile. It is assumed that beef cattle could reach 80% uptake by 2045, and sheep could reach a 60% uptake by 2045 under a regulatory scenario.

Scenario uptake values are presented for dairy, beef and sheep in Table 17.

Table 17. Scenario implementation values for dairy, beef and sheep

Traits

Traits and technologies with a possible relationship with methane emissions and emission reductions were identified through a REA of relevant literature (see Section 4).

Traits identified were further reviewed to assess their applicability to emission reduction calculations. When assessing each trait to quantify the emissions savings, appropriate values were found to be scarce in the literature. There were two key reasons that led to studies and/or traits being excluded from use in this task:

1. A significant portion of the literature did not present methane emission values and was instead looking at genetic correlations between traits. Therefore, literature that did not present methane emission values or change in methane emissions, either as absolute or relative values, were excluded.
2. Often the changes in methane emission were comparative to a baseline that was not appropriate for our calculations focusing on methane emission from enteric fermentation. For example, papers excluded in our review presented changes to emissions from the entire lifecycle or system.

A summary of the traits, where appropriate values were obtained, are presented in Table 17 below.

Table 18. Traits identified with appropriate methane reduction values used in the calculations of emissions savings

Feed efficiency

References: (Alford, A.R. et al. 2006; Worden, D. et al. 2020; Rowe, S.J. et al. 2021)

The ability of animals to optimally convert feed into liveweight with minimal losses of energy, meaning that animals with high feed efficiency consume less than their peers with equivalent liveweight and weight gain. This trait was identified across all three livestock types and has been highlighted by the stakeholders and the literature as a key trait for emission reductions (see Section 4).

Methane focused climate traits

References: (Quinton, C.D. et al. 2018; De Haas, Y. et al. 2021; Jonker, A. et al. 2018)

Methane traits are likely to have the greatest impact on methane emissions. Here the methane related traits were focused on manipulating the gut microbiome and selecting for animals with certain microbial populations that led to lower methane emissions. While methane traits were identified for all three livestock types, they were presented differently across the literature.

Offspring carcass weight – Specific to beef cattle

References: (Martínez-Álvaro, M. et al., 2022)

Focus on offspring carcass weight in beef cattle reduces methane emissions through increased quantity of product per animal, therefore reducing the number of animals required to produce the same amount of beef product.

Milk yield and Milk fat and protein – Specific to dairy cattle

References: (Bell, M.J. et al. 2010)

Traits reduce methane emissions per kg of milk while maintaining production levels and quality.

Emissions reduction

To calculate the emission reduction of different traits under the different scenarios the following formula is used:

Where:

= Emissions savings (kt CH₄ for the livestock type)

= Baseline emissions (kt CH₄ for the livestock type)

= Uptake (U) for the projected year (y)

= Emission reduction coefficient (%)

This formula calculates a percentage of emissions based on emissions reduction potential and uptake rate and subtracts this portion from baseline emissions. The result is an estimate of methane emissions if the reduction potential and uptake for the trait is achieved. The savings were then calculated by subtracting the estimated emissions from the baseline emissions, and both were calculated in units of percentage of baseline and absolute values (kt CO₂e). This calculation was completed for each trait found in beef, dairy, and sheep sectors, for the years 2030 and 2045.

Limitations in the data:

• All traits have been presented separately as the interaction between traits and the impact this would have on emission reductions is unknown.
• It is acknowledged that traits found within the literature are presented in different units (see Table 7). Traits selected from the literature also presented a percentage change which was used within the change calculations. The percentage change has been applied to total emissions from the relevant livestock sector due to limited data on specific emissions related to more specific production categories such as CH4 emissions per kg milk produced.
• Methane efficiency focused traits have shown to have the greatest methane reduction potential for all three livestock types. However, it is noted that there was less literature available on this subject compared to feed efficiency. Due to the smaller quantity of literature available the reduction potential values selected for methane efficiency could be less robust. Greater consistency in measurement, modelling, and presentation of methane efficiency traits and their impacts on emissions savings and animal performance production could be useful research to fill this knowledge gap.
• Traits reduction factors compiled within the review were presented in different units, however, all presented a percentage reduction. It has been assumed that the percentage reduction would be applicable to be used as a reduction factor as this would have a direct impact on methane reductions independent of the unit the factor was recorded in.
• Limited data was provided within the literature reviewed on the length of time until each trait reaches maximum potential within the population. However, it is assumed that once the trait has been bred into the total population there will be no additional improvements unless new breeding traits are selected. Within the calculations we have assumed that traits will account for their maximum potential to the selected population at the assessment point (i.e., in 2030 100% of the trait will apply to the current baseline uptake with the additional percentage uptake).
• There is the possibility that, due to the nature of genetics, when selecting for certain traits, that they will not fully spread throughout the entire population where the trait is applied. This is a complicated process, and it has been assumed that at each assessment point (2030 and 2045) each trait has reached maximum spread in the portion of the population that has taken up the measure (i.e., in 2030 100% of the trait will apply to the current baseline uptake with the additional percentage uptake).

Results

Figures 4-7 show that in each sector, up to 2030, the reductions are relatively steady, but there is a greater reduction at 2045, influenced by the proposed increase in uptake. Due to the proposed uptake percentages the policy change scenario presents the greatest reduction under all traits, with the no intervention scenario showing the smallest reduction due to a 5% increase in uptake in 2030 and no further uptake in 2045.

Figure 4 presents the methane emissions under the four scenarios for the three traits selected for beef cattle: feed efficiency, offspring carcass weight and methane production. The methane production focused trait has the largest emission reduction (reduction of 161.1 kt CO2e in 2045 under the policy changes scenario), whereas the offspring carcass weight focused trait has the smallest impact at less than 12.4 kt CO2e reduced by 2045 under the maximum reduction scenario.

In correlation with beef trait reductions, methane intensity traits have the largest reduction to methane emissions in dairy cattle, with a reduction of 35.4 kt CO2e observed under the policy change scenario by 2045, as presented in Figure 5. While breeding for methane reductions through feed efficiency has the least change at 7.4 kt CO2e reduced by 2045, this could be due to the work already completed on feed efficiency breeding within dairy. Traits focused on milk fat and protein and milk yield provide similar reduction level levels, however there is the potential for overlapping improvements with feed efficiency as breeding focused on improvements to milk production traits could also link to improvements to feed efficiency.

Reduction potential for sheep is presented in Figure 6 for the two selected traits: feed efficiency and methane yield. As with the cattle categories, the trait focused on methane improvements (methane yield) had the largest potential reduction at 185.6 kt CO2e reduced by 2045 under the policy change scenario, whilst feed efficiency traits saw a smaller reduction of 37.1 kt CO2e by 2045 under the policy change scenario.

Figure 4. Methane emissions for beef cattle traits against the 2021 baseline enteric methane emissions of beef cattle in Scotland. Please note the y-axes do not start at zero to allow for greater visibility of results.

Figure 5. Methane emissions for dairy traits against the 2021 baseline enteric emissions of dairy cattle in Scotland. Please note the y-axes do not start at zero to allow for greater visibility of results.

Figure 6. Methane emissions for sheep traits against the 2021 baseline enteric emissions of sheep in Scotland. Please note the y-axes do not start at zero to allow for greater visibility of results.

Figure 7 presents the methane emissions by 2045 under all scenarios for all traits for each livestock type. The difference in total enteric fermentation emissions for each livestock type can be seen by the dotted baseline line. Beef cattle emitted the majority of the methane from enteric fermentation in Scotland in 2021, with sheep emissions being less than half those of beef cattle, and dairy under a quarter those of beef cattle.

Figure 7. Methane emissions for all livestock for all traits presented against baseline enteric emissions of beef, dairy and sheep in Scotland.

How to cite this publication:

Jenkins, B., Herold, L., de Mendonça, M., Loughnan, H., Willcocks, J., David, T., Ginns, B., Rock, L., Wilshire, J., Avis, K (2024) ‘Breeding for reduced methane emissions in livestock’, ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5569

© The University of Edinburgh, 2024
Prepared by Ricardo PLC on behalf of ClimateXChange, The University of Edinburgh. All rights reserved.

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

High School Yards

Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

1. 
   

   See methodology in Appendix A, section 9.1 ↑

   
   
2. 
   

   DNA contains the information required to create the entire organism, a unit of DNA containing specific information to create a protein or set of proteins is referred to as a gene. It is these proteins which make up the body and control chemical reactions between cells. the study of genes is referred to as genetics. ↑

   
   
3. 
   

   The productive lifespan of livestock. For beef and dairy – a longer productive lifetime would reduce the number of replacement heifers needed to maintain a constant herd size. For sheep – the longer ewes can produce lambs, production efficiency improves. ↑

   
   
4. 
   

   The number of lambs born per number of ewes mated, expressed as a percentage. ↑

   
   
5. 
   

   For beef and dairy – less feed is used for the same output of product and less loss of energy to methane (kg CO₂e/kg product). For sheep – this is CO₂e but as far as can be told it is only methane in this value. Less feed is used for the same output of product and less loss of energy to methane (kg CO₂e/kg product). ↑

   
   
6. 
   

   The number of kilograms gained by the animal per day, measured in kg/day. ↑

   
   
7. 
   

   Overall production of the animal (including feed efficiency), supporting the animal to reach its full genetic potential and ensuring it reaches the highest possible level of performance. ↑

   
   
8. 
   

   ME is expressed as a Relative Breeding Value (RBV) with a mean score of 100 and a standard deviation (how much a point differs from the average), of five. A score below 100 indicates below average and a score above 100 indicates above average. A higher RBV indicates a higher methane reduction potential. ↑

   
   
9. 
   

   The amount of methane produced per unit of milk or sheepmeat produced (kg CH4/kg milk/sheepmeat). ↑

   
   
10. 
    

    RME is the difference between the expected methane emissions from an animal based on its size and feed intake, compared to what it actually produces. High RME is undesirable and low RME is desirable. ↑

    
    
11. 
    

    © Crown 2024 copyright Defra & BEIS via naei.beis.gov.uk, licenced under the Open Government Licence (OGL). ↑

    
    

Research completed: January 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5399

Executive summary

Aims

Achieving Scotland’s net zero goals by 2045 will require significant expansion of the renewable energy workforce. This is especially true in the rapidly growing onshore wind and solar energy sectors. Forecasts indicate a dramatic increase in workforce demands by 2030. This emphasises the need for enhanced, well-aligned training programmes to develop a skilled labour pool.

This study assesses the current training provision for the onshore wind and solar energy sectors in Scotland, identifying gaps, barriers and opportunities for improvement. It analyses existing programmes and their alignment with industry needs, exploring future workforce demands and strategies to address skills shortages.

Findings

We conducted desk research, data analysis and stakeholder consultations. The skills needed in the solar and onshore wind sectors can be divided into sector-specific, allied STEM (from broader disciplines such as mechanical and electrical engineering) and other skills (Figure 2). Although some critical training provision is needed for solar and onshore wind separately, the majority of roles are shared by the sectors requiring allied STEM and other skills. Siloed approaches for skills governance in solar and onshore wind could be counterproductive as the sectors compete for many of the same skillsets.

Figure 1. Conceptual framework of skill types relevant to solar and onshore wind industries.

We found that:

• There is a strong breadth of allied STEM training provision in Scotland, with skills that are highly sought across multiple sectors. A siloed approach to STEM workforce planning is a threat, as several industries draw from the same talent pool. Stakeholders highlighted poor visibility of careers, as well as low job attractiveness, as major barriers to the development of solar and onshore wind sectors at the accelerated pace required.
• There is a shortage of specialised training provision providing essential skills for the construction and operational phases of solar and onshore wind projects. The solar sector, in particular, suffers from a lack of training specific to large-scale or ground-mounted solar installations.
• The majority of targeted training provision relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors is largely theory-based, with insufficient emphasis on practical, hands-on experience. Industry leaders are concerned that graduates often lack real-world skills and are not “work-ready” upon entering the workforce. Practical training opportunities, such as industry partnerships and on-site apprenticeships, are limited.
• Funding constraints are a significant barrier to the expansion and modernisation of training programmes. High-cost courses, such as those involving high-voltage systems and specialised certifications, require substantial investment in equipment and facilities. Many colleges and training providers struggle to secure adequate resources to enhance the training delivery.
• Industry uncertainty, driven by a lack of clear and stable policy directives, complicates long-term planning for workforce development. Industry is hesitant to invest in apprenticeships and workforce training without concrete indications of project pipelines and future market stability.
• The competition for technically skilled workers is fierce across various industries. Renewable energy companies compete among themselves and with other sectors for these workers. This high level of competition complicates talent acquisition and retention.

Lessons learnt

The content and delivery principles of training programmes needs to be updated to better equip trainees with practical, hands-on experience. Deeper collaborations between industry stakeholders and educational institutions would ensure curricula content is relevant and meets current and future sector needs. Educational institutions and training providers should integrate work-based learning modules, internships and apprenticeship opportunities into their curricula. Modular and more flexible courses as a core mechanism for training delivery would facilitate targeted, intensive upskilling or reskilling. Such flexibility would enable faster and more efficient transitions into the workforce.

There is a pressing need for increased and targeted funding to support technical training programmes to enable these updates.

To attract and retain a skilled workforce, the onshore wind and solar sectors must become more visible and appealing to job seekers. Development of career pathway maps would illustrate how individuals can progress from entry-level roles to senior positions. This would provide a clearer picture of the long-term opportunities available in the sector, making it more attractive to potential recruits.

An integrated perspective is necessary to consider the requirement for a STEM workforce across all infrastructure projects of national importance and overall installed capacity ambitions. A comprehensive map that details the scale, timelines and workforce demands of major infrastructure projects has the potential to inform the total scale of skilled workforce needs, including for the onshore wind and solar sectors.

Next steps

Effective workforce development will require close collaboration between government, industry and educational institutions, and workforce representative groups. A coordinated approach will ensure that training programmes are aligned with sector demands. To address the workforce and training challenges outlined in this report, a detailed, comprehensive action plan should be developed. This plan should include timelines, assigned responsibilities, and measurable outcomes to ensure progress is tracked and accountability is maintained.

With workforce demand projected to peak by 2027, the action plan must be implemented swiftly. Initiatives should be launched before the start of the 2025/2026 academic year to allow training providers time to adapt and scale. This proactive approach will enable the industry to meet pressing needs and support for the Scottish Government to deliver its renewable energy commitments.

Glossary / Abbreviations table

Introduction

Scale of skills demands in solar and onshore wind

The achievement of Scotland’s net-zero commitment by 2045 relies heavily on expanding the renewable energy sector, including the onshore wind and solar energy sectors. Both the wind and solar sectors are expanding rapidly, creating an urgent need to train a larger skilled workforce. Two recent studies published by the ClimateXChange have estimated the workforce needs for both these sectors.

In the onshore wind sector, the workforce could need to increase from around 6,900 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs in 2024 to an estimated around 20,500 FTEs by 2027 (Morrison, et al., 2024). Most of these new jobs will focus on constructing and installing wind farms. Key areas such as the Highlands and Dumfries and Galloway will need a large share of the workforce, but recruitment challenges already exist in these regions. Critical skills shortages include high-voltage engineers and wind turbine technicians. If these gaps are not filled, it could slow down the sector’s growth and reduce its economic and environmental benefits.

The solar sector faces similar challenges. Its workforce could need to grow from around 800 FTEs in 2023 to an estimated over 11,000 by 2030, with over 80% of these roles estimated to be related to construction, especially for large ground-mounted solar projects (Creamer et al, 2024). Solar projects will require key tradespeople, such as electricians, grid connection engineers, and high-voltage technicians. Many of the large solar installations will be in rural parts of Scotland, which makes workforce distribution a challenge.

Both sectors already have skilled workers, but they must attract and train more people to meet their installed capacity ambitions. While current training programmes can address some of these needs, there is a clear requirement to upskill and reskill workers from other sectors. Previous research (Morrison et al, 2024; Creamer et al, 2024) has shown that a large part of the additional workforce required for solar and onshore wind sectors will require education at Higher National Certificate, Higher National Diploma and degree levels. Furthermore, the industry strongly prefers trainees who have real-world experience in these sectors. As such, apprenticeships are expected to play a significant role in the delivery of the future skilled workforce.

Based on the findings of these studies, we argue that the timelines for intervention towards increased training provision are urgent. To illustrate, the onshore wind sector forecasts a peak of workforce demand as early as 2027, leaving only two academic years for intervention and subsequent training to be delivered.

This follow-on study focuses on the analysis of the existing and planned training provision, profiling its alignment with the industry needs, and exploring potential avenues for optimisation of training provision based on insights from sector stakeholders.

Conceptualisation of relevant training provision

The skills needed in the solar and onshore wind sectors can be divided into sector-specific, allied STEM, and other skills (Figure 2).

Sector-specific skills focus on the installation, maintenance, and safe operation of the unique infrastructure in each sector. For example, solar projects require expertise in setting up and maintaining solar panels, while wind projects demand skills in handling large wind turbines, often in challenging environments such as working at heights. Health and safety knowledge is critical in both sectors, as they each present different risks—solar work involves concerns like heat stress, while wind energy can involve working at height and operation of heavy equipment. Additionally, site design in both sectors requires highly specialised skills. Wind projects, for example, need knowledge of geology and land use to optimise turbine placement, whereas solar projects focus on efficient land use for arrays.

More detail on sector-specific skills and job roles can be found in the ClimateXChange publications by Creamer et al (2024) and Morrison et al (2024) (solar and onshore wind, respectively). These skills are often acquired through the apprenticeship routes, as well as first degrees and private training provision programmes.

Allied STEM skills include those adapted from broader disciplines such as civil, structural, mechanical and electrical engineering. These disciplines are essential for building and connecting renewable energy infrastructure to the grid. Engineers play a vital role in constructing foundations for wind turbines or solar supports and managing and balancing electrical systems. Further, skills from environmental sciences and logistics help ensure that projects comply with environmental regulations and manage supply chains effectively. Similar to sector-specific skills, allied STEM skills are acquired through apprenticeships, as well as first degrees and postgraduate training.

In addition to technical skills, other skills, such as finance, planning, and management expertise are critical for the success of renewable energy projects. These professionals may not have hands-on involvement in infrastructure development but are key in overseeing projects, securing funding, navigating regulations, and managing teams. Understanding the specifics of solar and wind energy is essential in these roles, as managers and leaders must handle complex projects, from permitting and financing to project delivery. These skills are a combination of theoretical sector understanding that could be achieved, for example, through first degree or postgraduate specialisation, in addition to extensive work experience in the sector. Albeit these skills are not the main focus of the current study, it is important to acknowledge their involvement in the sectoral skills ecosystem, and in particular in context of their position in career pathways for mid-career and senior professionals.

This report uses the framework outlined in Figure 2 for a comprehensive discussion of training provision that enables solar and onshore wind industries. This is in alignment with the precursor studies, which identified that the highest skilled workforce demands are likely to be within the allied sectors. This report discusses solar, onshore wind, and allied STEM skills training provision in parallel, as the skills needs across solar and onshore wind sectors have high levels of convergence. Any differences between the sectors are highlighted in the text and summarised in the Conclusions.

Figure 2. Conceptual framework of skill types relevant to solar and onshore wind industries.

Methodology

We carried out extensive desk based research, reviewing national and international policies and initiatives related to training provision for solar and onshore wind sectors and the renewable energy sector overall. This included the review of the precursor studies, literature regarding the EU Pact of Skills, International Energy Agency reports, and others.

Following this, we conducted a comprehensive landscape analysis of training provision in Scotland for solar, onshore wind, and other relevant STEM sectors. This process included profiling all training providers in Scotland’s higher and further education institutions, gathering course names and qualifications offered, and analysing course content to understand the themes and topics. We also mapped the geographic distribution of training provision sites to visualise the regional availability of skills provision.

To understand how the training provision aligns with industry needs, we reviewed national occupational standards (NOS) and explored future training initiatives. Additionally, we extracted and analysed student enrolment data from the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) to assess the number of students enrolled in relevant STEM disciplines and compared this with solar and onshore wind workforce demand forecasts from previous studies.

Our stakeholder engagement programme involved consulting a broad range of participants, including those from policy, training providers, supporting organisations, industry, and the supply chain (21 participants) between July and September 2024. Through semi-structured one-to-one interviews via Microsoft Teams, we gathered insights on how current policies affect training provision, the competition for talent, and talent retention. We also explored stakeholders’ views on the barriers and motivations individuals face when pursuing careers in solar and onshore wind sectors. These discussions helped us identify potential actions to address current and future skills gaps, as well as suggestions for improving the targeting, timing, and enhancement of training provisions. A complete list of the organisations we consulted is included in ‎Appendix A.

Key relevant training provision policy and initiatives

Scotland

Policy activity

In Scottish national policy, onshore wind and solar sectors are covered under the umbrella of green jobs / skills and renewables. Scotland’s National Strategy for Economic Transformation (The Scottish Government, 2022) places significant emphasis on building a skilled workforce to drive future economic prosperity. This publication outlines, in general terms, that the skills related to the net zero transition, including renewable energy, will be critical. It emphasises lifelong learning mechanisms such as continuous reskilling and upskilling as key to adapting to fast-paced technological changes. The Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan (CESAP) (Skills Development Scotland, 2020) is a document that outlines key initiatives to equip Scotland’s workforce for the transition to a net zero economy. The Green Jobs Workforce Academy was launched as a service aimed to help the workforce with training, upskilling, and job seeking in the emerging green sectors. The National Transition Training Fund (NTTF) was introduced in 2020 as a direct response to the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. In its second and final year, the fund’s scope expanded and included a more significant emphasis on supporting individuals and employers in the transition to net zero. This followed a commitment within CESAP. Further, CESAP’s original publication indicated the ambition to launch the Green Jobs Skills Hub to provide insights into the skills needed over the next 25 years, working with businesses and educational institutions to ensure training aligns with the demand for green jobs

Additionally, CESAP indicates that sector-specific initiatives, such as the Energy Skills Alliance (now led by the Offshore Petroleum Industry Training Organisation OPITO) and Offshore Wind Skills Group, will map out skills requirements in renewable energy, such as hydrogen production and carbon capture. At a policy level, there is no equivalent regionally targeted working group aimed at solar or onshore wind.

CESAP set an ambition to work with educational institutions to realign curricula with industry needs and offer work-based learning to ensure individuals acquire the skills needed for Scotland’s green economy. Much of this work was carried out through Pathfinder activity under the remit of the Skills Alignment Assurance Group, now Shared Outcomes Assurance Group of the Scottish Government. Lastly, CESAP indicates that a place-based approach will target regional needs, with agencies like Highlands and Islands Enterprise leading efforts in rural areas to promote green job opportunities.

The CESAP Pathfinder Work Package 1 (Skills Development Scotland, 2023) aimed to understand the demand for skills driven by the transition to net zero and to map existing skills provision across apprenticeships, further education, higher education, upskilling, and reskilling. The report revealed that 27% (32,300) of college enrolments are in courses aligned with CESAP sectors. Additionally, around 16% of Scottish university graduates were working in a CESAP sector 15 months after graduation. In terms of apprenticeships, 29% (7,400) of Modern Apprenticeship (MA) starts and 38% (400) of Graduate Apprenticeship (GA) starts were in sectors aligned with CESAP. However, CESAP WP1 report indicates that there is evidence of leakage from this potential skills supply pipeline. Of the university graduates who entered a CESAP sector as their first destination, about 40% took jobs outside of Scotland. CESAP WP1 also highlighted the gap in knowledge of the future destinations of college students.

Future training provision initiatives in Scotland

Stakeholders across Scotland are engaging in a range of initiatives towards optimising future training provision for the whole renewables sector, many of which are targeted at offshore wind. We note that offshore wind skills are often directly applicable to onshore wind, and these are reviewed below. The Scottish Government, as part of its NSET strategy, prioritises a “Skilled Workforce” with a focus on future skills needs, including the net zero transition.

OPITO has introduced credit-rated qualifications in Hydrogen, Oil and Gas, and Wind Power to enhance workforce mobility across sectors. The Energy Skills Partnership (funded by Scottish Funding Council) supports key technical skills across Scotland’s colleges through various Training Networks. National Energy Skills Accelerator (NESA) has secured £1 million from the Just Transition Fund to pilot training programmes, including Performing Engineering Operations – Renewables, Electrical Systems for Renewable Energy, Project Management Fundamentals, and Energy Data Management.

Hosted by the North East Scotland College (NESCol) and funded by the Just Transition Fund, Energy Transition Zone/NESA is also developing an Energy Transition Skills Hub, which will include demonstration and teaching facilities for energy transition technologies and a state-of-the-art welding and fabrication academy. The Engineering Construction Industry Training Board has launched Energy Scholarships to address workforce shortages in roles such as Wind Transfer Technician and Energy Transfer Technician, with trainees receiving training in core engineering skills, new technologies, and digital competencies. RenewableUK and Energy & Utility Skills have partnered to create training and assessment standards for the UK’s renewable energy workforce, including national occupational standards (discussed below) and apprenticeship frameworks.

UK

In July 2024, the UK Government announced a mission to increase onshore wind development. This was marked by the launch of the Onshore Wind Industry Taskforce (UK Government, 2024). One of their key working groups is specifically focused on supply chains, skills and the workforce. The Taskforce will run for up to 6 months and culminate in the publication of a final report, setting out their commitments, and transition into the delivery body.

In May 2023, the UK Government launched the Solar Taskforce (UK Government, 2023) with terms of reference including skills governance for the solar sector. A ‘Draft Solar Roadmap’ was last discussed in the taskforce meeting in March 2024, and the final publication is pending.

European Union

In the European Union (EU), achieving the REPowerEU targets across all renewables sectors is predicted to create over 3.5 million jobs by 2030. In response to this rapid increase in STEM workforce demands, the EU has launched several initiatives to develop a skilled workforce for the renewable energy sector.

One of the flagship efforts as a part of the European Skills Agenda is the Pact for Skills (European Commission, 2020), aimed at upskilling and reskilling the workforce in various industries. One of the themes of the Pact of Skills is the Renewable Energy Ecosystem. This ecosystem is a series of strategic partnerships between the industry and policymakers to ensure sectoral cooperation for the development of skilled workforce in sufficient numbers. Examples of partnerships include Renewable Energy Skills Partnership, Large-Scale Partnership on the Digitalisation of the Energy Value Chain, and Skills Partnership for Offshore Renewable Energy. These initiatives are supported through consistent and sustained funding mechanisms such as Horizon Europe and Erasmus+ funding programmes. This capacity building is strengthened through international cooperation, facilitating the exchange of best practices and expertise, and harmonisation activities in training content.

Another relevant EU policy initiative is the BUILD UP Skills programme (European Climate Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency, 2011), which has been active since 2011 and focuses on increasing skills in the construction sector, particularly for energy efficiency and renewable technologies. It provides national roadmaps to tackle skills shortages and works through EU funding programmes like Horizon 2020 and LIFE CET to support training for green energy jobs. This highlights that the EU is taking a broad approach to renewable energy workforce development and recognises the allied STEM skills role in it.

Overall, while these strategies aim to effectively transition workers and communities to renewable energy sectors, their success can be difficult to measure as the energy transition is ongoing. The long-term impact of workforce transition and reskilling is yet to be seen.

In addition to the skills governance, broader economic conditions, like market fluctuations and supply chain disruptions, also affect outcomes. The transition’s success ultimately relies on sustained political will, consistent funding, and strong collaboration among governments, industry, and communities.

Review of existing training provision

Targeted training programmes

List of targeted training provision

To identify targeted training provision that is relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors, we profiled course lists available on the websites of training providers (Scotland-based universities and colleges) and collated a list of courses that include renewable energy (general), wind, or solar in their title or public description. For private training provision, we carried out a Google search using keywords such as “Scotland solar PV training courses” and “Scotland onshore wind training courses” and profiled course lists available through private providers (remote training options were excluded from the analysis).

Our analysis of training provision identified a total of 57 courses relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors in Scottish colleges and universities being delivered in 2024/2025. We analysed the course content available in the public description on training providers’ websites and found:

• 23 courses that include content on renewable energy and energy systems (without specifying wind (onshore and offshore) or solar in the public description)
• 11 courses that include wind (onshore and offshore)- and solar-themed modules
• 5 courses that include solar-specific modules
• 18 courses that include wind-specific modules (onshore and offshore).

Figure 3 illustrates the levels of qualifications offered by the identified relevant courses. This data shows that most solar and wind sector courses are at postgraduate level specialism (25 total). This is in comparison to only 8 courses at the first-degree level, and two courses at SCQF L4. The highest number of targeted skills provision courses were hosted at the University of Strathclyde (10) and NESCol (7). The full list of courses identified as directly relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors is included in ‎Appendix B.

Figure 3. Levels of qualifications of courses targeted to solar and onshore wind sectors available through Scottish public education providers.

We note that the numbers outlined above are a high-level estimation of training provision for solar and wind. Other courses, particularly at BEng and BSc levels in electrical engineering and other allied sectors, might include further content relevant to solar and onshore wind. This analysis, therefore, focuses on courses where solar and/or onshore wind forms the major component of the course content.

In addition to training provision available through Scottish colleges and universities, we identified 110 short courses available through private training providers:

• Solar: 5
• Wind: 105 (specialist skill training, Global Wind Organisation (GWO) basic safety courses and other safety certifications).

These short courses are typically 1-6 days in duration and include certifications that are critical for safe working on solar and wind sites, as well as highly specialist technical skills and use of highly specialised equipment. The full list of identified relevant course private provision is included in ‎Appendix B, Table 2.

Thematic analysis of course content

We reviewed publicly available information on the contents of college and university courses identified as directly relevant to onshore wind and solar sectors and identified nine key thematic trends. All module names and themes are extracted from STEM course descriptions.

Theme 1: Fundamental engineering and electrical principles.

Module titles: Engineering Mathematics; Electrical & Mechanical Systems; Thermodynamics and Fluids; Electrical Engineering Principles; Core Maths; Electrical Systems; Fluid Mechanics & Thermodynamics.

Description: These modules provide the foundational engineering knowledge crucial for understanding and applying more advanced concepts in renewable energy. Mastery of these basic principles is essential for anyone entering the energy sector, as they underpin much of the work in system design, operation, and maintenance.

Theme 2: Renewable energy technologies and systems.

Module titles: Wind Turbine Technology; Solar Energy Systems; Marine and Wind Energy; Energy Conversion and Storage; Renewable Energy Integration to Grid; Wind, Solar, Hydro, and Marine Electricity Generation; Future Energy; Renewable Energy Technologies.

Description: This theme includes modules that focus on specific renewable energy technologies and systems. Students learn the principles, operations, and applications of various renewable energy sources, including wind and solar, as well as hydro, geothermal, and marine energy. These courses are most directly applicable to the onshore wind and solar sectors.

Theme 3: Power systems and grid integration.

Module titles: Electrical Power Systems; Power Electronics for Energy & Drive Control; High Voltage Technology & Electromagnetic Compatibility; Distributed Energy Resources and Smart Grids; Renewable Energy Integration to Grid; Power Systems Engineering and Economics; Power System Design, Operation & Protection.

Description: Modules under this theme cover the complexities of integrating renewable energy sources into existing power grids. Students are taught the technical and economic aspects of power systems, including high-voltage technology, power electronics, and grid management. This knowledge is essential for ensuring that renewable energy can be effectively and efficiently incorporated into the larger energy infrastructure.

Theme 4: Practical skills and hands-on experience.

Module titles: Assembling and Testing Fluid Power Systems; Operation and Maintenance of Wind Turbine Systems; Basic Hydraulics.

Description: Practical experience is a critical aspect of training in the renewable energy sector. These modules focus on hands-on learning, where students gain direct experience with the operation, maintenance, and troubleshooting of renewable energy systems. This practical knowledge is crucial for developing the skills needed to work effectively in the field.

Theme 5: Health, safety, and industry-specific certifications and standards.

Module titles: Health and Safety Passport (CCNSG); GWO BTT Course (Electrical, Mechanical, Hydraulics); ECITB Mechanical Joint Integrity Training; Solar and energy storage system design and installation modules recognised by Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS).

Description: Industry-specific certifications and skills are vital for professionals in the renewable energy sector. This theme includes modules that provide the necessary certifications and specialized training required by the industry. These qualifications are crucial for meeting industry standards and ensuring that professionals are fully prepared for their roles.

Theme 6: Sustainable energy and environmental impact.

Module titles: Basic Evaluation of the Impact of Energy Generation on the Environment; Sustainable Energy Management; Environmental Impact Assessment.

Description: Modules in this theme explore the environmental aspects of energy production and the importance of sustainability. Students learn about the environmental impacts of different energy sources, strategies for sustainable energy management, and how to reduce emissions and pollution. These modules are critical for understanding the broader environmental implications of energy projects.

Theme 7: Project management and strategic planning.

Module titles: Strategic Technology Management; Stakeholder Management and Governance; Project Management.

Description: Effective management and strategic planning are crucial for the successful execution of renewable energy projects. These modules equip students in STEM courses with the skills needed to manage complex projects, plan strategically, and navigate the economic and regulatory landscapes. This theme prepares students for leadership roles within the industry.

Theme 8: Innovation and advanced technologies.

Module titles: Data Analytics & AI for Energy Systems; 3D Printing and Inventor Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs); Advanced Control Engineering; Digital Signal Processing Principles; Renewable Technology Commercialisation

Description: Innovation drives progress in renewable energy, and this theme covers the latest technologies and methodologies that are transforming the industry. Courses in this category focus on advanced technologies like AI, IoT, and programmable logic controllers, which are crucial for developing new solutions and improving existing systems in the renewable energy sector.

Theme 9: Energy economics and sustainability policy.

Module titles: The Economics of Community Wealth Building; Net Zero Society; Transition to Net Zero; Understanding Sustainability Discourses; Energy Resources & Policy

Description: This theme covers the economic, policy, and sustainability aspects of the energy sector. Modules in this category focus on the financial and regulatory frameworks that influence renewable energy projects, as well as the broader societal impacts of transitioning to a net-zero economy. Understanding these factors is essential for anyone involved in the strategic planning and implementation of renewable energy projects.

Based on these desk research findings, we conclude that the overall scope of current training courses has the potential to equip trainees with a wide range of skills suitable for various roles in the solar and onshore wind sectors, from technical and practical positions to environmental and project management. The courses also cover important areas like health and safety, policy, economics, and innovation, providing a solid foundation of knowledge for these industries. Stakeholders expressed a difference in opinion on the suitability of the content of current training provision for the industry. This is discussed in detail in Section ‎8.1.

Training provision alignment with industry needs

National Occupational Standards

National Occupational Standards (NOS) describe the skills, knowledge and understanding required to undertake a particular job to a nationally (UK-wide) recognised level of competence. NOS are proposed, developed and updated in response to industry needs. The process is usually led by the relevant industry skills association, that works with employers and sector experts to collectively refine NOS through a process of consultation. The NOS are then approved by UK government regulators to ensure that they meet industry requirements. NOS are the foundation for vocational qualifications, including apprenticeships. Learners are assessed against NOS to ensure that they have achieved the necessary competencies to be employed in that occupational role.

NOS are grouped into business sectors. There are 22 NOS that are grouped in the wind turbine sector, although only two are specific to wind turbines. There are 16 that are grouped in the solar PV sector, all but two of which are specific to solar PV. These NOS are listed in ‎Appendix C, Table 3. As of the time of the creation of this report, a review of the NOS is ongoing (Energy and Utility Skills, 2024).

Activity towards aligning curricula and industry needs

Based on intelligence received from industry, ESP previously created a Wind Training Network for the College sector. The Colleges were strategically located in areas where there was a demand for onshore wind turbine technicians. The network has grown from the original 3 colleges and now consists of 11 throughout Scotland to meet forecasted demands.

The curriculum content is co-created by colleges and industry and continues to evolve with direct industry input from companies such as Natural Power, that have sponsored wind turbine technician courses at Dumfries & Galloway College with direct routes to employment offered. This model is forecast to be rolled out to other areas where demand exists and can be duplicated and adapted by additional industry partners.

Colleges are collaborating with industry partners to deliver short technical courses for wind turbine technicians that include GWO BTT qualifications. The teaching materials are shared resources within the network and a collaborative approach to delivery is used. To date, the solar sector has not had the same level of interest, but as demand increases a similar college training network model can be implemented to increase capability and capacity to meet this growing demand, both strategically and sustainability. We note that there is minimal activity towards future training provision for the solar sector, especially in the context of large ground-mounted projects. One stakeholder noted that the minimal activity of ground-mounted projects in the planning pipeline has led to a lack of clear indication from the industry about its skills needs for these projects, making it challenging for training providers to respond.

Allied sector STEM skills provision

Overview

As illustrated in Figure 2, both onshore wind and solar sectors are further enabled by a skills base drawn from allied sectors. These skills are fundamentally rooted in non-energy-focused disciplines such as engineering (electrical, mechanical, civil, and structural), and applied disciplines such as construction, welding, electrical installation and others.

We have identified a total of 389 courses available through Scottish universities and colleges that are aligned with these topics (Figure 4). These courses are distinct from the courses identified in the section above. In this STEM training provision, we identified 10 Foundational Apprenticeships, 16 Modern Apprenticeships, 8 Graduate Apprenticeships and 14 pre-apprenticeship courses. Many of these apprenticeships are provided via the apprenticeship frameworks (listed in ‎Appendix D). Additionally, apprenticeships are also available through private companies, and typically these would not be advertised through training providers’ course lists and websites.

Figure 4. The number of courses in the allied sectors relevant to solar and onshore wind per provider.

Thematic analysis

A thematic analysis of the course content reveals broad provision across core engineering disciplines, particularly in structural, mechanical, civil, and electrical engineering. Key areas such as structural mechanics, geotechnical engineering, fluid mechanics, thermodynamics, and power electronics demonstrate comprehensive training in fundamental engineering topics. The curricula also place significant emphasis on computational techniques, with modules such as computer-aided engineering design, mathematical modelling, and finite element analysis providing students with essential design and analysis skills.

Environmental and sustainability topics are well-represented, with courses such as environmental engineering, water resource management, and sustainability, reflecting the growing importance of sustainable practices in engineering. Some of the curricula further include emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and Internet-of-Things as interdisciplinary data science fields. Additionally, modules in project management, risk management, and engineering innovation and management offer robust professional skills development, preparing students for leadership roles in managing engineering projects.

However, there are potential gaps. Emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, machine learning, and Internet-of-Things generally remain under-represented. The curricula could also benefit from expanded coverage of specific renewable energy subsectors, including solar and onshore wind; the current course content only mentions “wind” three times and “solar” two times.

In summary, while the course content provides a strong foundation in traditional and modern engineering disciplines, there is room to enhance the curricula by incorporating more emerging technologies and renewable energy topics. This would better prepare students for the evolving challenges of the engineering profession. It would also encourage students from engineering backgrounds to further specialise in solar and onshore wind sectors, particularly considering the lack of targeted solar and onshore wind coverage at undergraduate levels.

Geographic distribution of training provision

Locations of training provision

Research shows that future onshore wind farm developments will be in remote and rural areas of Scotland such as the Highland and parts of Dumfries and Galloway, resulting in a sharp increase in skills requirements in these geographies (Morrison et al, 2024). In comparison, commercial rooftop solar projects in Scotland are mainly based around densely populated areas, including the central belt, Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, the east, north-east, and Inverness. Ground-mounted solar projects will be primarily situated in rural areas like Aberdeenshire, Angus, Fife, and Tayside (Creamer et al, 2024), where there is ample land for larger systems.

We have created a map that shows where the targeted training provision is available (Figure 5). Most of these locations are aligned with the locations of higher and further education institutions, and it has been supplemented with locations of the private training provision company sites. It shows that the training provision is located within the central belt of Scotland, as well as Aberdeen and Inverness. There is an obvious disparity between the locations of training providers and the geographic regions where the solar and onshore wind workforce will be in the highest demand.

Figure 5. Geographic locations of Scottish training providers (colleges, universities, and private companies) offering courses relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors.

Stakeholder commentary on the development of local talent

Attraction, development, and retention of local talent pools in remote and rural areas was highlighted as an area of high concern by 9 of 21 stakeholders. The Highlands, in particular, faces substantial challenges in attracting and retaining local talent and developing a skilled regional workforce. Two regional stakeholders expressed an opinion that the Highlands is an emerging industrial cluster and predicted a sharp increase in demand for technical talent. This is an area of concern because the region has a rapidly ageing population (Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2019).

“We don’t actually have enough (…) people for all the jobs that are going to be available.”

The temporary nature of jobs in the construction stages of solar and onshore wind projects further exacerbates the issue with the development of local talent. Construction and commissioning stages of projects in solar and onshore wind industries are marked by a sharp increase in workforce requirement. However, this demand is temporary as the construction stage of project development takes 2-3 years and is seasonal. As such, the industry is heavily dependent on a mobile skilled workforce. One stakeholder highlighted that the current reliance on bringing an external workforce to the region is, in effect, a barrier to the development of a stable, local talent pool for solar and onshore wind sectors. This is due to the fact that, from an industry perspective, skilled regional workforce development takes a significant investment of time that is not aligned with timelines of a typical project. From the workforce perspective, these temporary job roles might not serve as a basis for a life-long career and, therefore, make the sectors less attractive to new entrants.

“The reliance on transient workforce [means] there’s no real demand from developers to try and develop a workforce locally.”

In addition, two stakeholders indicated that the planned acceleration in onshore wind activity in England is a potential threat to maintaining a stable technical talent pool in Scotland. They explained that this acceleration is likely to drive a rapid increase in demand for skilled workers in England, where there is an anecdotal shortage of talent, prompting the industry to potentially draw from the Scottish workforce. Additionally, remuneration in England is perceived as higher, which could further incentivise talent migration.

“There is a concern that Scotland could lose a significant chunk of its skilled workforce to England.”

Addressing the future skilled workforce demands

Analysis of SFC data

To understand analyse the scale of skills being delivered against the projected future skilled workforce demands, we extracted data in relation to the total number of enrolments in all STEM-related courses identified as relevant to onshore wind and solar sectors. This was done in collaboration with the Scottish Funding Council.

The analysis of enrolment numbers on a course level was not possible as the data request could not be fulfilled in the timelines of this study. Therefore, the datasets discussed below are assessing combined annual enrolment numbers in both targeted and broader STEM training provision courses.

In the most recent available dataset (2021/2022), the total full person equivalent (FPE) enrolment in first degree, postgraduate taught and postgraduate research courses broadly identified as relevant to the sectors was 53,585 (Figure 6). The transferability of skills from these courses into solar and onshore wind is illustrated in ‎Appendix D, Table 5.

Figure 6. Number of enrolments (full person equivalents) in courses relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors in Scottish higher education institutions (2021/2022).

In the most recent available dataset (2022/2023) the total FPE enrolment in Scottish college courses that are engineering-focused and identified as relevant to solar and onshore wind and allied sectors was 14,890 (Figure 7).

Figure 7. Number of FPE enrolments in engineering courses identified as relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors in Scottish colleges (2022/2023).

To reiterate, previous studies have estimated the peak total workforce requirement for solar and onshore wind sectors as 11,000 and 20,500 respectively. The FPE numbers of the current training provision have been provided as an illustration of the training capacity of further and higher education institutions in Scotland in courses relevant to solar and onshore wind. However, it is critically important to note that the total FPE numbers illustrated in Figure 6 and Figure 7 above do not imply that Scotland’s skilled workforce needs are being addressed by the existing training provision. People from these courses enter a range of different industries, and this is explored further in Section ‎7.2. Additionally, annual FPE enrolments in the relevant courses do not equal the number of individuals completing the training, or the number of graduates that are entering the workforce. For example, the number of graduates in a four-year training programme could be 25% of the total FPE number (the 4^th year trainees).

Further, the data on the future destinations of students undergoing the training is fragmented, and this has already been flagged by CESAP Work Package 1 report (Skills Development Scotland, 2023). The recent SDS Apprentice Voice publication states that 71% of modern apprentices are still working for the employer with which they completed their modern apprenticeship 15 months after completion (SDS, 2024). Further research could explore the demographics, interests, and future career pathways of students in training to clarify the true number of entrants into the renewables sector and identify their subsector preferences.

Competition for talent

Due to the short timeline for meeting the 2030 installed capacity ambitions, addressing future skilled workforce demands in solar and onshore wind sectors will rely on cross-sector skills transfer. Interviews highlighted that one dominant sector that provides technically skilled talent to renewables, in particular onshore and offshore wind, is ex-service personnel (6 of 21 stakeholders).

Technically skilled talent is in high demand across many sectors, including other renewables (hydrogen and offshore wind), manufacturing, construction, the utility companies, and others. The competition for talent within the onshore wind and solar sectors is also fierce. As a consequence, workforce retention is an issue. This was highlighted as a critical challenge by 14 of 21 stakeholders consulted. Stakeholders highlight that a siloed approach to skilled workforce planning is a potential threat to the renewables sector as a whole.

“We’re competing with so many other sectors for the same skill sets… it’s a very competitive marketplace.”

In addition to problems in attracting talent from other industries, solar and onshore wind sectors face significant challenges in retaining skilled workers within their roles (14 of 21 stakeholders).

“We did go through a period… where there was very high turnover and lots of people leaving.”

Talent mobility is high, with workers often moving on to more lucrative or appealing opportunities after a short period. This disincentivises the industry to invest in workforce development via traditional pathways.

“The investment of spending three years training them [apprentices] [is significant]. At the end of it, a lot of them were literally staying in the role for six months, then looking to the next thing.”

The ageing workforce in parts of the solar and onshore wind sectors represents an additional challenge in training and developing talent.

“We’re losing a lot of our real experienced people that would normally mentor those coming in straight from uni… that’s where the struggle is.”

“The ageing workforce and impending retirements are exacerbating these challenges, as there are not enough experienced workers to mentor new entrants.”

The limited talent pool can result in solar and onshore wind companies headhunting suitably trained technical talent within their supply chains, with potentially detrimental consequences to these suppliers.

“When we’ve got good people… the developers come and use us as a recruitment location (..) clearly you can’t restrict people’s careers but (..) that’s a challenging area for us.”

The industry indicates that more innovative training mechanisms will be required to address the issues with training and retention, and these are discussed in Section 8.

Sector visibility and attractiveness

Due to the overall high demand for a technically skilled workforce, stakeholders highlighted that improving the visibility and attractiveness of the sector is a key element in ensuring that the future skills demands are met (11 of 21 stakeholders). They suggest that one strategy for ensuring optimal communication of sector attractiveness is by clearly describing the opportunities for life-long, diverse careers in these sectors. This can be achieved, for example, through the development of clear career pathway maps by building on the sectoral overlap matrix conceptualised in Figure 2, for example by illustrating career paths from technical roles into leadership, management, and planning (other skills).

“People want to see, okay, where can I go next? They want to see that career path… that’s where we need to be to attract people.”

“We need visibility of career pathways… there will be a lot more interest if there’s more visibility of how they can go about obtaining those roles.”

“The biggest challenge is that they don’t know how to progress within the sector.”

One stakeholder indicated that some companies in the onshore wind sector use career mapping internally as a tool for increasing employee retention within the organisation.

“We’re doing a lot of that internally now… developing a career path map so people can see the visibility of where they can go.”

One stakeholder, actively engaged with skilled individuals looking to transition to onshore renewable energy, indicated that the overall levels of visibility and clarity about the requirements and opportunities in solar and onshore wind are relatively low.

“They [skilled individuals seeking to transfer to renewables] need to understand the route to becoming a fully qualified electrician to get into solar installation.

For solar, we’re not seeing the volume of opportunities.

We’re talking a lot about the opportunities but they’re just not visible… we don’t see the wind turbine technician roles coming up that often.

Training provision gaps, barriers, and opportunities for improvement

Gaps and barriers

Gaps in training provision and alignment with industry needs

Stakeholders (16 of 21) consistently highlighted a significant gap between the content and capacity of existing training programs and the specific needs of the solar and onshore wind sectors. This gap is particularly evident in specialised, role-specific training, such as for wind turbine technicians and ground-mounted solar project development specialists. This is in contrast to the findings outlined in the Section ‎6 above, suggesting suboptimal levels of communication between the education providers and the industry in tailoring course content to the industry’s specific needs.

“We have generic degree courses in electrical engineering… it’s probably more the specialisms that we’re lacking just now.”

“There is no single qualification in solar. Generally, qualifications are part of a wider training provision.”

“I’ve got engineers at the moment that I need to get up-skilled in solar… the closest training course I can find is in the south of England.”

The mismatch between academic offerings and industry requirements creates challenges in producing a workforce that is ready to contribute effectively from day one. Stakeholders highlighted that training provision is reactive rather than proactive and does not anticipate the industry’s needs to meet the 2030 installed capacity ambitions.

“The qualifications available in Scotland are very generic… we need a much more work-ready solution so that when people come out of training, they have a much better insight into the specifics.”

“Most training providers at the moment are looking to provide training for current demand. And there’s no foresight as to what that’s going to look like in the next two, three years.”

A few stakeholders (3/21) indicated that skills provision for solar sector, and especially large-scale commercial rooftop and ground mounted solar, is limited in Scotland. This opinion is supported by the desk based research findings that showed that most solar-targeted training provision is specialised on domestic rooftop installations. There is a clear deficit in targeted training for the more complex and technically demanding aspects of large solar projects.

“Solar is lagging behind – all on awareness level, not competence-based… solar farms are less catered for.”

“There is very limited experience on these types of projects [large commercial and ground-mounted projects]”.

Barriers to increased training provision

A recurring theme that was highlighted by 15 of 21 stakeholders as a critical issue is the lack of targeted funding for training provision, which has become a significant barrier to expanding and adapting training programmes.

“Funding is the main issue… the absolute allocation to individual Modern Apprenticeships has not increased for 10 years.”

“Colleges are struggling to provide [relevant training provision] without external support.”

The financial constraints are compounded by the high costs of the necessary infrastructure and materials, leaving institutions to rely on limited general budgets.

“These are very expensive courses to cover in comparison with other courses.”

“My understanding is that there’s only one college right now that has the equipment to deliver high-voltage training.”

Stakeholders indicated the need for ring-fenced funding to support the development and delivery of courses that are specific to solar and onshore wind sectors. This has become particularly important after the termination of the National Transition Training Fund in 2022. One stakeholder further indicated the need for ringfenced funding for safety certifications to ensure that the skilled workforce is certified to work in solar and onshore wind environments.

“We have nothing… all of that ring-fenced funding is now gone.”

“The funding available is often for higher-level qualifications, but it doesn’t apply to safety tickets or other certifications, which can be a barrier.”

Stakeholder commentary on policy

Stakeholders (10 of the 21 consulted) highlighted that policy has a central role in market certainty and, therefore, future skills needs planning and training provision. Uncertainty, particularly concerning the future pipeline of projects, complicates long-term workforce planning. Companies are hesitant to invest in long-term workforce development initiatives without clearly understanding future project demand. At the conclusion of this study, the upcoming Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan had not been published. Stakeholders highlighted that industry has interpreted this as a signal of market uncertainty, which by extension complicates their future workforce planning.

“We need confidence that there’s a long-term pipeline of projects… that gives us the green light to look at investment and ramping up the workforce.”

“If you’re recruiting an apprentice, you’re planning three or four years out… that’s challenging to do without certainty.”

Stakeholders also indicate that the skills governance and policy for solar and onshore wind currently lack certainty and strategic direction. This is in contrast to offshore wind skills governance, which was seen as substantially more mature, despite the lower levels of sector maturity compared to onshore wind. In addition, it was highlighted that the ongoing post-school education reform complicates future workforce development planning. In this context it is challenging for education providers to allocate resources to critical skills areas and delays the alignment of curricula with emerging industry needs, affecting the preparedness of trainees.

“The problem within my space at the moment is all our policy is up in the air… we’re waiting for (…) the funding review.”

“Without a clear directive from the government, the training provision will continue to be reactive rather than strategic.”

Overall, stakeholders called for a more strategic, top-level intervention from a policy perspective that would involve industry, training providers, and funding bodies.

Opportunities for enhancement

Modular and flexible training programs

The need for modular, flexible training programs that can quickly upskill individuals with relevant but incomplete experience is a recurring theme that was highlighted as the opportunity for training enhancement (14 of 21 stakeholders). These programs should be designed to provide targeted, condensed training that aligns with industry needs, allowing workers to become productive more quickly.

“They have the base skills and they just need a little top-up to actually enable them to move into the sector. We need to condense [training provision] into something intense, something that people can do in short courses.”

“If we [the industry] could fund modular type activities… that would really suit us.”

“We could take a more modular approach… train you to do [a certain task] and then upskill you as needed, but in the meantime, you’re productive much more quickly.”

The main idea behind modular training provision is to identify areas where a worker requires additional support while using their existing skills within the workforce. Two stakeholders described this process as skills “top-up”, as opposed to full retraining of already skilled workers that would remove them from the workforce for an extended period. This could be integrated into the existing training provision, with apprenticeships highlighted as one of the most important mechanisms for the delivery of a skilled workforce to the solar and onshore wind sectors.

“The perfect mix is where you have [modular training within] degree apprenticeships. They’re learning the fundamentals while getting operational experience.”

In addition, one stakeholder indicated that modular training provision could also support increased levels of training of trainers, expanding the skillset that can be passed on through existing training provision mechanisms. This highlights that the modular training provision could benefit different stakeholder groups and be synergistic for the development of skilled workforce.

Strategic collaboration between stakeholders

Effective workforce development in the renewable energy sector requires a coordinated effort between industry, government, educational institutions, and training providers. Stakeholders (18 of 21) consistently highlighted the need for improved communication and partnership that can lead to more effective training and recruitment efforts. This collaboration should focus on not only bringing together stakeholders from solar and onshore wind but also other relevant sectors.

“Employers need to work with training providers… to put together a training piece that’s going to assist [workforce that is looking to transfer] based on topping up their skills.”

“We just need to get that communication from industry… they [training providers] will absolutely ramp up and align their courses with it and we [a networking organisation] can support them to flex what they offer as well.”

“Government, industry, and training providers should be working more closely to develop a much more modular approach to the delivery of training.”

One stakeholder highlighted that, whilst the relevant people are “often in the same room…” they are “…speaking different languages”. This comment relates to the fact that policymakers, industry, education providers, and other stakeholders often tend to have different and occasionally conflicting priorities. As such, the solar and onshore wind sectors could benefit from more strategic and mediated conversations and relationship-building activities to ensure synergy between stakeholders.

Importance of practical training and on-the-job experience

There is a strong emphasis on the need for practical, hands-on experience in training programs. Many stakeholders (12 of 21) believe that current training programs are too theoretical and do not provide the real-world skills needed for success in the solar and onshore wind sectors.

“The practical element… is fairly limited, so we’re going to do more of that in-house now to meet the needs.”

“We’re still going to need months, if not years, of training them on our products… they have good general electrical engineering knowledge, but not the specifics.”

Two stakeholders indicated that, currently, qualifications alone do not guarantee competency to work in the sector.

“Just because someone is a qualified electrician, it doesn’t make them competent.”

Stakeholders also noted that the academic environment cannot prepare the future workforce for all required job roles in the industry, especially in mid-management. This relates to the previous insights associated with the ageing workforce; as the sector relies heavily on existing career professionals to upskill newcomers, mentorship and guidance must remain available to those entering the sector. This also applies to skilled workers transferring from other sectors to solar and onshore wind.

“The academic environment… doesn’t equip them as project managers. A lot of it realistically… where you get the real training is on the job.”

“We’ve been much more focused on… are they the right person culturally to fit the organisation… then we can train them from an experience point of view.”

Lessons learnt

The findings of our study suggest a series of key themes that could be used for future consideration in developing training provision for the onshore wind and solar sectors.

Although our analysis of current solar and wind sector courses found a theme of ‘practical skills and hands-on experience’ in the descriptions, industry stakeholders did not feel that this is sufficiently represented in the training available. Training providers need to ensure that the course content is relevant to industry needs, in particular regarding hands-on training and close collaboration with industry partners, including through apprenticeships. Access to internationally recognised, accredited training, such as GWO Health & Safety, should be prioritised to ensure that workers receive industry-standard qualifications.

Currently, most solar and wind sector courses are at postgraduate level of specialism. A shift towards a more flexible, modular approach to upskilling and reskilling the workforce is needed. This would allow individuals to tailor their training to specific needs rather than undergoing full retraining programmes. This has the potential to enable faster movement of individuals from training into the workforce which would benefit the industry.

Improved collaboration and communication between stakeholders is another critical lesson. The important role of government in creating clear market signals and strategic skills governance has been highlighted. Establishing more formal partnerships and regular cross-industry and education forums could help foster greater coordination and break down the siloed approach to workforce development. It would also benefit the SMEs in the solar and onshore wind sectors that cannot carry out substantial skills development programmes on their own.

To support the above points, there is a need to enhance and modernise existing funding mechanisms. This includes re-establishing targeted funding streams, encouraging industry investment in training, and exploring new funding models to support specialised programmes such as modular training options. In particular, there needs to be significant investment in practical infrastructure to support hands-on training.

This research highlights the centrality of allied STEM and other roles shared by both onshore wind and solar skills development. A siloed approach to STEM workforce planning is a threat as several industries are drawing from the same talent pool, resulting in competition with their vital supply chains. A more integrated perspective would consider the requirement for a STEM workforce across all infrastructure projects of national importance and overall installed capacity ambitions. A comprehensive map that details the scale, timelines, and workforce demands of major infrastructure projects has the potential to inform the total scale of skilled workforce needs and alleviate some concerns regarding the temporary nature of some job roles at times of peak demand. Such a map could be used as a signal of the availability of lifelong careers in these diverse sectors. Understanding the flow of skilled workforce amongst solar and onshore wind sectors and between other sectors will be vital to maximising skills and workforce potential.

Another suggestion for policy and the broader stakeholder ecosystem is the need to develop robust and compelling career pathways through comprehensive career mapping. Research is needed to outline career progression within the solar and onshore wind, as well as the broader renewable energy sector, and compare it with other major industries to create a comprehensive transferability framework. Identifying key roles, required skills, and potential career progression routes can provide clarity for professionals entering or transitioning within the sector, making it more attractive and accessible. This approach will be essential for addressing both recruitment and retention challenges.

Conclusions

In summary, current training provision has the potential to deliver the skilled workforce required for the solar and onshore wind sectors if it is strategically supported through policy certainty, targeted funding and changes in modes of training delivery. The need for intervention is urgent, as research indicates a peak in workforce demand as early as 2027 (Morrison, et al., 2024).

We have conceptualised the sectoral overlap of skills for the onshore wind and solar sectors (Figure 2). This demonstrates that although critical, specialised skills training provision is needed for solar and onshore wind separately, the majority of roles are shared by the sectors requiring allied STEM and other skills. We found that there are gaps for both sectors in specialised, role-specific training aligning to industry needs. However, siloed approaches for skills governance in solar and onshore wind could be counterproductive as the sectors compete for many of the same skillsets.

Allied STEM skills training provision in Scotland is extensive, with a significant number of students enrolling in relevant and transferable courses each year. These programmes equip trainees with foundational skills that can be applied across various sectors, including renewable energy. However, there is a lack of clarity regarding student destinations after completing these courses, making it difficult to track how many trainees are entering the solar and onshore wind sectors in Scotland. Stakeholder engagement highlighted that the onshore wind and solar sectors need to increase their job attractiveness in a highly competitive skills marketplace, including through increased visibility and clear career pathways.

Throughout this report, we have demonstrated the value of an integrated perspective, with the above conclusions being applicable to both sectors. However, our findings also suggest conclusions for the specific sectors, as set out below.

Sector specific conclusions: Onshore wind

Training provision for the onshore wind industry is available in Scotland but needs better alignment with the sector’s specific operational demands, especially with a stronger emphasis on practical, hands-on skills like wind turbine maintenance and site management. While there are few significant barriers preventing individuals from entering the industry, poor sector visibility is an issue. Industry leaders are keen to see training programmes that allow workers to quickly transition into the workforce, building on their existing knowledge while providing opportunities for continued upskilling. Modular training and “topping up” skills are considered vital to ensuring that workers can effectively meet the evolving needs of onshore wind projects and contribute to the industry’s success.

Sector specific conclusions: Solar

The solar industry in Scotland faces several challenges related to training and skills development. Currently, training provision is limited to domestic rooftop installations, which already require an electrical qualification. A major concern is Scotland’s lack of expertise in ground-mounted solar, which poses a potential threat to the sector’s development. There are no specialist courses available or training providers equipped to deliver the necessary skills. Skills governance for the solar sector is also lagging behind that of other renewable sectors, which further hinders the industry’s growth.

Like the onshore wind sector, the solar sector would greatly benefit from increased modular training provision to upskill workers quickly. However, training providers require a clear signal from the industry indicating a need for such courses. Addressing these gaps is essential for ensuring that the solar industry has a skilled workforce capable of supporting its growth.

Next steps

This study has identified the key barriers, opportunities and needs for intervention to increase training provision for solar and onshore wind sectors in Scotland. The next critical step is to develop a detailed, fast-paced action plan that engages all key stakeholders, including policymakers, industry representatives, training providers and potential talent pool representatives. Given the urgency of workforce demands and a projected peak of skills need as early as 2027, this action plan must establish clear and fast-paced timelines for intervention, with an aim to launch initiatives before the start of the next academic year (2025/2026). Coordinating this effort will be crucial to ensuring that Scotland can support the sectors’ rapid growth and deliver its renewable energy commitments.

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Skills Development Scotland (2024) Apprentice Voice 2023 Annual Results. Available at: https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/0twj3fpe/apprentice-voice-ma-kpis-2023.pdf (Accessed: 05/11/2024).

UK Government (2023) Solar Taskforce. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/solar-taskforce (Accessed: 24/09/2024)

UK Government (2024) Onshore Wind Industry Taskforce. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/onshore-wind-industry-taskforce (Accessed: 24/09/2024)

Appendices

List of consulted stakeholders

Skills Development Scotland

Universities Scotland

Solar Energy UK

Scottish Training Federation

Scottish Funding Council

Gensource

Engineering and Construction Industry Training Board

ITPEnergised

Scotland’s Electrical Trade Association (SELECT)

Career Transition Partnership

EVO Energy

Dumfries and Galloway College

Ayrshire College

NMIS/University of Strathclyde

NESCol/Energy Transition Skills Hub

NESCol/National Energy Skills Accelerator

Hitachi Energy

SSE Renewables

Scottish Power Renewables

Highland Council

Energy Skills Partnership (ESP)

Table 1. Training provision relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors available through Scottish colleges and universities in the academic year 2024/2025.

Table 2. Training provision relevant to solar and onshore wind sectors available through private providers.

Table 3: National Occupational Standards (NOS) that are relevant to onshore wind and solar PV.

* denotes NOS that are specific to onshore wind and/or solar PV. All others are more general, but still of relevance.

Table . List of Apprenticeship Frameworks identified as relevant for the broader STEM skills provision.

Table 5. Scottish university courses and their relative transferability to solar and onshore wind sector. This list is derived from SFC records where courses are ranked in red, amber, and green for their relative transferability to onshore wind and solar sector skills needs. The RAG rating was assigned through qualitative reasoning of the consultants following in-depth thematic analysis of the course content as discussed in Section ‎6.1.2. The full person equivalent data was provided by the Scottish Funding Council.

How to cite this publication: Beinaroviča, J., Creamer, D., Morrison, M., Brown, J., Knox, D. (2025) Training provision in Scotland’s onshore wind and solar industries, ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5399

© The University of Edinburgh, 2025
Prepared by Optimat on behalf of ClimateXChange, The University of Edinburgh. All rights reserved.

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

High School Yards

Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

Research completed: January 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5568

Erratum: Please note that this report was updated on 16 May 2025 to refer in three instances to Climate Ready HES: Adaptation Plan (2021) instead of Historic Environment Scotland Climate Action Plan (2020). Row 74 in the accompanying database has also been updated.

Executive summary

Introduction

Public bodies in Scotland are key players at the forefront of responding to climate change impacts in Scotland, given their roles as health, education, housing and social care providers, and emergency and risk management agencies. This study reviews the state of play of public body climate adaptation planning in Scotland. The report highlights approaches for delivering climate adaptation, common themes, similarities and differences between public bodies. It summarises available information on costs and benefits, to help inform a collective understanding among stakeholders and highlight knowledge gaps.

Summary of key findings

Overview of public body adaptation plans

The adaptation planning landscape is complex. In many public bodies, there is no single, dedicated climate adaptation plan; more often, adaptation is integrated into one or more documents. Public body adaptation plans vary widely in their scope, content and levels of maturity. Because of this variability it is difficult to evaluate progress on a like-for-like basis.

Affirming previous findings by the Sustainable Scotland Network (Sustainable Scotland Network, 2023), this study found multiple examples of confusion between climate change adaptation (i.e. responding to the impacts of climate change) and climate change mitigation (i.e. reducing greenhouse gas emissions). Public Bodies Climate Change Duties Reports (PBCCDRs) also frequently signposted to documents such as flood risk assessments that they are required to produce but do not constitute dedicated climate adaptation plans. Therefore, public bodies’ self-reported levels of adaptation planning is not always accurate.

Local authorities are not explicitly required by law to produce adaptation plans. We found that fewer than one-third of local authorities have a dedicated adaptation plan. The remainder have undertaken at least some planning relevant to climate adaptation, in line with their statutory duties on adaptation. Adaptation plans are generally area-wide in scope. These plans frequently made use of guidance, tools and resources made available through the Adaptation Scotland programme. There are several regional plans that have been produced via consortia, which are supported by additional evidence and are comparatively more mature.

As of October 2024, all 22 NHS Boards (including the 14 regional NHS Boards and 8 special NHS boards) have produced a climate change risk assessment (CCRA) and 18 have produced an adaptation plan. There is a requirement for NHS Boards to produce these in a standard Excel-based format, which prompts them to list actions against each risk. These plans generally focused on the organisation’s own operations, assets and supply chain.

The adaptation plans for Historic Environment Scotland, Scottish Water and Transport Scotland were sector-specific and took different approaches to adaptation planning overall. We observed some key differences between local authorities, NHS boards and the other organisations we reviewed, which likely reflect the different remits, the sectors and geographic areas they cover. Key differences include: the scope of their adaptation planning, the themes and content of their adaptation actions, whether they focused solely on the organisation or on the wider area, and whether they were underpinned by a CCRA.

Information on costs and benefits in adaptation plans

We found that the adaptation plans we reviewed contained minimal quantitative information on either costs or benefits. The latter are considered qualitatively in varying levels of detail.

For local authorities, the majority of quantitative information that is available comes from two regional economic impacts reports on climate risks produced by Paul Watkiss Associates. East Dunbartonshire Council was the only example we found of a local authority that had attempted to downscale this information to a local level. Otherwise, there was minimal cost information aside from a handful of local authorities who cited high-level costs, usually in relation to flood infrastructure or associated damage.

NHS boards are prompted to indicate the cost of adaptation measures in relation to each risk they identify. However, not all of them utilised this part of the form; some fields were left blank and it was not clear why. Where costs were indicated, it was not always clear what they referred to.

Of the other organisations reviewed, only Scottish Water cited costs in its adaptation plan, referring to the level of investment required in future years.

It is likely that more quantitative information on costs and benefits is held by public bodies but not necessarily incorporated into their adaptation plans.

Recommendations

Recommendations for policy are set out below. Further details are in Section 8.2

1. Engage with public bodies and undertake further research to understand the barriers they face to identify the specifics of the support they need for adaptation planning. Suggested topics for further study are provided in Section 8.2.
2. Require local authorities to produce climate change risk assessments that consider topics additional to flooding. Use these to develop climate change adaptation plans, in line with guidance from the Adaptation Scotland programme.
3. Provide public bodies with advice on how the regional economic impact assessments (see Section 6.2.2) and other national evidence relating to costs and benefits can be downscaled to support the case for local adaptation planning and investment.
4. Align the Sustainable Scotland Network’s (SSN) system for rating the maturity of adaptation planning with the Adaptation Capability Framework. This would likely require organisations to assess and self-report their scores, which links to Recommendation 2. See Section 7.1 for more information.
5. Explore ways to support public bodies with limited resources to produce adaptation plans or CCRAs. This could involve signposting to information provided by the Adaptation Scotland programme on easy wins, low-regret actions, no- or low-cost actions and partnership arrangements to share skills, knowledge and budgets.
6. Clarify what information on adaptation should be reported within Public Bodies Climate Change Duties Reports and what information is unnecessary in terms of key performance indicators. See Section 7.4 for more information.
7. In future, where mitigation programmes are undertaken or funded by the Scottish Government and public bodies would be involved in their delivery, signpost links between mitigation and adaptation.

Glossary / Abbreviations table

Introduction

Context

Public bodies are at the forefront of responding to climate change, given their roles as health, education, housing and social care providers, emergency and risk management agencies, and more. Under the Climate Change (Duties of Public Bodies: Reporting Requirements) (Scotland) Order 2015, public bodies in Scotland are required to produce annual reports on their compliance with their statutory climate change duties, covering mitigation, adaptation and sustainability. These are known as Public Bodies Climate Change Duties Reports (PBCCDRs).

Although public bodies are required to report how they are contributing to help deliver the national adaptation plan and whether they have their own climate adaptation plans, some organisations do not have them; it is not a statutory requirement. The plans that do exist demonstrate varying levels of maturity and detail.

The Scottish Government has identified that a particular gap exists regarding costs and benefits of adaptation measures. This presents a barrier to action in several ways, e.g. making it difficult to:

• Determine the required levels of resilience
• Identify the best use of public sector resources and which projects to prioritise
• Understand who will be affected and how, as well as who bears the cost, which is important in the context of a just transition
• Engage with stakeholders and generate buy-in
• Develop business cases and obtain funding

This research study reviews the current ‘state of play’ of adaptation planning in Scotland, highlighting common themes, similarities, and differences among public bodies. It summarises available information on costs and benefits, to help inform a collective understanding among stakeholders and highlight knowledge gaps.

Climate change terminology

Adaptation vs. mitigation

This study focuses on climate change adaptation plans. Adaptation in this context refers to actions that are taken to manage and respond to the effects of climate change. This is distinct from climate change mitigation, which refers to actions that are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and thereby limit how much climate change occurs in the future.

In some cases, adaptation actions help to mitigate emissions, and vice-versa. For example, planting trees can help to provide cooling and shade in a warming climate (adaptation) while also removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (mitigation). In other cases, actions may contradict or subvert each other.

This review found several examples of climate change plans that confused adaptation and mitigation (for more information, see Sections 5.5 and 5.6). It also found examples where the linkages were either ignored or not fully acknowledged. There is a particular risk of confusion because climate change adaptation actions may be described as ‘mitigating climate risks’ in the standard language of risk management. This is distinct to climate mitigation actions that mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Risks: The interaction between hazard, vulnerability and exposure

The IPCC defines risk as, ‘The potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems […] In the context of climate change impacts, risks result from dynamic interactions between climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of the affected human or ecological system to the hazards.’ (IPCC, 2019)

Climate hazards include phenomena like heatwaves and floods, exposure refers to the presence of people, assets or services in places that could be affected by hazards and vulnerability is the predisposition to be adversely affected. 

Methodology

Scope of the study

This study primarily focused on the climate change adaptation plans or strategies produced by Local Authorities and NHS Boards. This included consortium studies by three regional adaptation partnerships: Climate Ready Clyde, Climate Ready South East Scotland (SES) and Highland Adapts. At the request of the Scottish Government, the study was expanded to include Historic Environment Scotland, Scottish Water and Transport Scotland.

The study prioritised documents using a tiered approach:

• Tier 1: Climate change plans or strategies that focus on adaptation and include ‘adaptation’ in the title.
• Tier 2: Other climate change strategies or action plans with adaptation-related content (even if the primary focus is on mitigation)
• Tier 3: Supporting documents and other evidence, such as climate change risk assessments (CCRAs), which contain information relevant to adaptation planning within Tier 1 and 2 documents.

Unless otherwise specified, the study did not examine other plans, strategies and documents where climate change was not the primary topic. Examples would include Local Development Plans, Flood Risk Assessments and Corporate Strategies.

Adaptation is often incorporated into multiple documents, to varying levels of detail. For simplicity, this report refers to all Tier 1 and Tier 2 documents as ‘adaptation plans’; however, readers should be mindful that the term is being used in a broad sense. Note, this tier system has been developed solely for the purpose of this study, to differentiate between various types of documents that were reviewed.

Research approach

This study comprised a desk review of climate adaptation plans and related documents as described in the previous section. The review was carried out from July to December 2024.

The initial task was to create a data collection template, ensuring consistent information recording. PBCCDRs for relevant public bodies were identified through the SSN website. Documents that were not publicly available were requested from the relevant public bodies.

Each document was then reviewed and evidence collated within the data template. The templates were collated into summary sheets to enable thematic analysis. An overview of these data can be found in the accompanying spreadsheet.

Limitations of the approach

This project is based on a desk review only. The results have not been informed by additional stakeholder consultation.

As stated previously, the scope of this review focused on dedicated climate adaptation plans/strategies. Climate adaptation measures that are integrated into other documents, such as Local Development Plans, may not be captured if they are not included in the organisation’s main climate change plan(s).

Public bodies may hold additional information or evidence relevant to climate adaptation, including quantified costs and benefits, that was not captured by this review. For example, the costs of additional flood protection infrastructure may have been assessed as part of individual business cases.

If an organisation has carried out further work on climate adaptation since its 2023/24 PBCCDR was published, it may not be included in this review. The same applies to any ongoing work or documents that are not yet finalised.

It is possible, although unlikely, that this review omitted some Tier 1 and 2 documents that are available online. This might be the case if they are not included in PBCCDRs, cross-referenced in other documents, or clearly signposted on the relevant public body’s website.

Overview of public body adaptation plans

This section summarises the overall landscape in regard to climate adaptation planning, for the Scottish public bodies that were reviewed.

How many public bodies have climate adaptation plans?

As noted within Section 4.1, adaptation planning is often incorporated into a wide variety of plans, strategies and other documents. As a result, simple metrics – such as the number of adaptation plans or how many actions they contain – are difficult to calculate. They also do not convey the overall level of maturity of public bodies’ climate adaptation planning.

To highlight the overall complexity of the landscape, consider the following example. West Dunbartonshire Council has produced a Climate Change Strategy that addresses both adaptation and mitigation but primarily focuses on the latter (West Dunbartonshire Council, 2021). The Strategy is supported by a Climate Change Action Plan. Both documents are structured around nine themes, of which ‘Climate Impacts, Risk and Adaptation’ is one. The adaptation section contains three actions: (1) to deliver relevant actions set out in the Glasgow City Region (GCR) Climate Adaptation Strategy, (2) to undertake a local CCRA and (3) to use the Adaptation Capability Framework to identify areas for further improvement. The reference to Glasgow City Region acknowledges a separate piece of work, underpinned by a regional CCRA and economic impact assessment, that has been produced by Climate Ready Clyde (Climate Ready Clyde, 2021). This relationship is illustrated in Figure 1.

Based on this review, among the 32 Local Authorities that were assessed:

• Nearly all Local Authorities have either a Tier 1 and/or Tier 2 document, indicating that some level of climate adaptation planning has been carried out, either individually or as part of a regional consortium. Note that the level of maturity and detail varies widely, as will be discussed in various sections of this report.
• Approximately 2/3^rds of Local Authorities have access to a CCRA, either for their council area and/or as part of a regional consortium.
• Fewer than 1/3^rd of Local Authorities have a specific, dedicated climate adaptation plan (a Tier 1 document as defined in Section 4.1).
• A small number of Local Authorities (up to 3) appear not to have undertaken any climate adaptation planning. It is acknowledged that adaptation might be addressed in wider documents and strategies which were excluded from this review.

Among the 14 regional NHS Boards and 8 special NHS boards:

• All 22 have undertaken a CCRA using a standard template.
• 18 of them have produced adaptation plans by listing actions against risks within their CCRAs. These combined CCRA/action plans have been counted as Tier 1 documents. Of those, 3 have also produced separate climate change strategies and/or action plans (Tier 2 documents).
• One NHS Board which does not have a Tier 1 adaptation plan has produced a separate climate change strategy (Tier 2) which discusses adaptation at a high level.

An additional challenge was understanding how the adaptation plans and related documents (such as wider climate change strategies) produced by each public body interrelate. The research found several instances of organisations that had produced a form of adaptation-related documentation that was not referenced in their PBCCDR. There were also examples where key documents, such as regional adaptation plans with supporting evidence bases, were mentioned in passing but not highlighted as being particularly significant within the wider context of the public body’s adaptation planning or governance approach. These issues could indicate a lack of internal awareness of what planning has been undertaken and/or confusion about what to include in the PBCCDR. On the latter point, it may be useful to provide organisations with further clarity (see recommendations in Section 8.3).

Authorship of climate adaptation plans and other documents

Based on this review, the Tier 1 adaptation plans for most of the NHS boards, Scottish Water, Transport Scotland and HES appear to have been undertaken in-house, i.e. there are no other authors listed within the documents that were reviewed. However, correspondence with NHS NSS has confirmed that some NHS Boards had funding for external consultancy support to produce their combined CCRA/adaptation plans.

For Local Authorities, there are fewer Tier 1 climate adaptation plans. With the exception of the 2012 adaptation strategy by Highland Council, all of these appear to have either been produced in collaboration with other regional stakeholders or some other form of external support. The majority of Local Authority Tier 2 documents appear to be produced in-house, but as in the case of NHS Boards, some of these are known to have had input from external consultancies. Local Authority Tier 3 documents were more likely to have consultancy firms listed as the main authors, often being commissioned by a consortium. Although the sample size is small, the difference in authorship between Tier 1 and Tier 2 documents is notable. It might suggest that Local Authorities have higher in-house skills and capacity to develop mitigation plans compared with adaptation plans. It could also signify a preference for partnership working on adaptation. The two are not mutually exclusive.

Varying levels of additional support were provided by the Adaptation Scotland. Adaptation Scotland is a programme funded by the Scottish Government, which provides advice and support to businesses, communities and public sector organisations seeking to become more resilient to the effects of climate change. In this advisory capacity, Adaptation Scotland offer tools and guidance for public bodies undertaking adaptation reporting (see Table 1 below).

Joint plans have been developed at the regional scale to promote collaborative climate adaptation action, sharing guidance and resources between public bodies. These include Climate Ready Clyde (CRC), Climate Ready South East Scotland (SES) and Highland Adapts. Appendix A contains a list of the organisations that are involved in each of these consortia.

It is understood that Perth and Kinross, Angus and Dundee Councils are also currently exploring opportunities to create a Tayside Regional Adaptation Partnership. A list of regional and place-based adaptation partnerships is available on the Adaptation Scotland programme’s website (Adaptation Scotland, n.d.).

What standards, guidance and tools do they use?

Public bodies use a range of guidance and tools to inform their adaptation planning.

• For Local Authorities, 14 of the 32 councils’ PBCCDRs referred to the Adaptation Scotland programme, although not all have used these resources and the outputs show considerable variation.
• NHS boards are required to carry out CCRAs in a standard format using templates provided by NHS National Services Scotland (NSS), and then use these to inform adaptation plans.
• Historic Environment Scotland and Transport Scotland also state in their PBCCDRs that they have used Adaptation Scotland’s Capability Framework (Adaptation Scotland, 2019). Scottish Water is also understood to have utilised this framework although this is not specifically mentioned in the documents that were reviewed.

The table provides more information on the standards, guidance and tools that were referred to in the documents that our team reviewed.

Table 1: Standards, guidance and tools referenced in public bodies’ climate adaptation plans

It is likely that other standards, guidance and tools (particularly ones from the UK Climate Impacts Programme) have been used even if they were not captured by this review. This review did not record any specific references to the internationally-recognised ISO 14090:2019 standard, although it underpins the NHS NSS requirements.

Even among public bodies that referenced the same guidance, the outputs still varied in scope, content, themes, structure, and level of detail. This could be due, in part, to the fact that the Adaptation Scotland Capability Framework allows flexibility for organisations that are at different stages of maturity in planning for climate change adaptation, and the Adaptation Scotland website offers a wide range of tools and resources which public bodies can choose to adopt. The guidance is non-prescriptive and is designed to be tailored to the organisation’s needs.

Tools were also used differently by different organisations. For example, not all NHS boards responded to all of the prompts in the CCRA template. These differences in overall scope and content are explored more in the next section.

Overall scope and content of adaptation plans

Local Authorities

Although some Local Authority’s adaptation plans focus on risks to their own organisation’s assets and services, most are area-wide and cross-sectoral in their approach. In other words, they address issues that the council can influence directly, as well as those that are relevant to the geographic area as a whole where the council may have indirect influence.

There is wide variation in the level of detail and complexity in adaptation planning for Local Authorities. For example, Edinburgh City Council produced an adaptation plan in 2016 (Edinburgh City Council, 2016) which has already been updated with a new one (Edinburgh City Council, 2024). Whereas, for some Local Authorities, adaptation planning includes only a brief reference to adaptation within a document that is primarily mitigation-focused.

Regarding the specific climate hazards that the plans consider, the most common are flooding and severe weather. Many of the plans also discuss the impacts of climate change on the natural environment, green spaces or green infrastructure, and biodiversity. Overheating is mentioned in some of the plans but overall is not a key focus. This may reflect the types of climate hazards that have historically been more common in Scotland (flooding) and those that are more visible (the natural environment and green spaces).

Unlike NHS board plans (see next section), not all of the Local Authority plans were supported by a CCRA. Those that had undertaken a CCRA tended to address climate hazards, but did not necessarily assess exposure or vulnerability (see definitions in Section 3.2).

There was not a clear link between the level of detail of the adaptation plans and whether or not the Local Authority had a CCRA as part of their evidence base. There were some that had access to regional CCRAs (e.g. via Climate Ready Clyde) but the extent to which those findings had been incorporated into locally-specific climate adaptation plans or strategies was unclear based on this desk review. In other cases, organisations may have undertaken a CCRA as a first step but not yet produced an adaptation plan. Those organisations might be expected to have more detailed adaptation plans but it is not yet possible to say.

In terms of other commonalities and themes, there did not appear to be a clear correlation between the level of adaptation planning a Local Authority had undertaken, and its budget or number of employees. This is linked to the fact that some local authorities have joined together to produce regional risk assessments or strategies (see Appendix A).

Similarly, to the extent that there were regional differences in overall levels of adaptation planning, these were related to whether or not organisations were part of those joint strategies.

NHS Boards

NHS boards’ adaptation plans are targeted at the level of their own organisation, healthcare assets and services, and supply chains. Mostly, the focus is on physical assets. Based on information provided by the project steering group, it is understood that this focus was intentional, due to a need to narrow scope in line with budget and resourcing constraints.

As part of NHS NSS requirements, NHS boards are required to undertake a CCRA and develop adaptation plans using a standard Excel-based template. It includes the following headings, which are presented sequentially in the order that they appear.

• Risk type;
• Asset group;
• Relevant climate hazard;
• Assets at risk;
• Potential impact category;
• Risk exposure score;
• Existing [risk] mitigation measures;
• Recommended adaptation measures;
• Residual risk exposure score;
• Risk owner;
• Delivery partners;
• Timeline;
• Financial costs;
• Monitoring approach.

In general, there tends to be less variance in scope between NHS Boards plans, compared to Local Authority plans. Notably, although the template is framed as a risk assessment, many of the actions proposed in response to specific hazards are to undertake more detailed assessments of the risk. For more information on actions, see Section 5.6.

In addition, at least six NHS Boards have produced broader climate change strategies (or similarly titled documents) and most of these discuss adaptation at a high level.

NHS Boards plans are generally focused on hazards such as flooding, overheating, structural damage from severe weather, and general risks to the estate and services. For example, in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde Climate Change and Sustainability Strategy, one adaptation action focuses on utilising the existing outdoor estate to retrofit green infrastructure and combat increased flooding (NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 2023). NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde was a stakeholder within the Climate Ready Clyde group until 2024, demonstrating that some NHS Bodies, like some Local Authorities, are benefitting from shared regional learnings.

Other organisations

Historic Environment Scotland’s (HES) adaptation plan focuses on sector-specific climate risks (Historic Environment Scotland, 2021). The adaptation plan is accompanied by a detailed project methodology and results report, including results of the CCRA. A risk management strategy and severe weather policy has also been created to support the Climate Ready HES approach. The Adaptation Scotland Capability Framework was used to inform the organisation’s action plan. The plan groups risks into 5 broad categories: physical climate risks to physical assets, natural capital, operations, people and transition risks. For more detail on transition risks, see Appendix D.

Transport Scotland’s adaptation plan covers its area of operation, which covers all of Scotland (Transport Scotland, 2021). It outlines seven transport related climate risks and prioritises four high level strategic outcomes to help achieve the vision of a well-adapted transport system in Scotland. Transport Scotland used resources from the Adaptation Scotland programme to develop its plans. The risks are evidenced using the UK CCRA and a separate CCRA has not been undertaken for the organisation. The strategic outcomes relate to trunk roads, rail network, aviation network and maritime network. Each strategic outcome includes sub-outcomes which provide a much narrower scope for action. For example, for the strategic outcome relating to trunk roads, one sub-outcome is to deliver a programme of proactive scour schemes across the network.

Like Transport Scotland, Scottish Water’s adaptation plan is focused on its own assets and operations nationally (Scottish Water, 2024). The plan is embedded within their overall risk management process. It covers eight main themes, which include: impact on services, drought, deteriorating water quality, customer flooding and environmental pollution, waste water and environmental quality, asset flooding and coastal erosion, interdependent risks and enablers. Outcomes and outputs for each adaptation action are clearly defined along with timelines for adoption and enabling actions. The plan is based on a CCRA that contains two climate scenarios, in line with CCC recommendation to plan for a 2°C increase in global temperatures but assess for a 4°C increase.

Themes and structure of adaptation plans

Most of the adaptation plans reviewed in this study were structured around multiple thematic areas. However, there was little consistency in what these themes were and the scope of what they covered within different plans. This was true when comparing different types of organisation (e.g. NHS board vs. local authority) as well as when comparing across organisations of the same type (e.g. NHS board with NHS board). The thematic groupings used can be broadly categorised as:

1. Broad sectoral themes such as buildings, infrastructure and biodiversity – This is the most common way of defining themes. It is similar to the outcomes used to structure the third Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3). The thematic areas are not uniform across plans that use this approach and often different language is used to describe similar themes, for example ‘property assets and housing’ and ‘buildings’. A theme relating to nature, the environment and/or biodiversity was common to almost all plans that used this approach, and the built environment was also a common theme. Of the outcomes in SNAP3, the ‘economy, business and industry’ theme was least prominent across plans.
2. Sector-specific themes – For non-local authority organisations, including NHS boards, an approach similar to the sectoral themes above may be used but with specific themes more closely aligned to their delivery functions. For example, the Transport Scotland plan is structured around themes including trunk roads, rail, aviation and maritime.
3. Themes based on climate hazards – Some of the adaptation plans are structured around themes such as ‘flooding’, ‘heat’, ‘drought’ and ‘coastal adaptation’. This was most common among NHS Boards, as the CCRA template prompts the user to list actions against each risk (although some NHS Boards had also produced separate climate change strategies that addressed adaptation at a high level and did not follow the same structure). Overall, the plans generally have a stronger focus on flooding than other hazards, likely reflecting the current risk profile in Scotland.
4. Enablers – Many of the plans also contain at least one theme based around enablers for adaptation action, including governance, building understanding and knowledge, working in partnership and monitoring and evaluation.
5. Climate adaptation as one theme in a wider strategy – Some organisations have mitigation and adaptation combined into a single strategy document. Those tended to include a number of chapters of mitigation themes (transport, waste, land use etc.) and one or two additional chapters on adaptation and/or resilience. Having a single strategy could theoretically help with integrating adaptation and mitigation actions but in many cases this opportunity has been missed (see Section 5.6).

Some plans apply a mix of the above approaches, for example, using primarily sectoral themes with an additional chapter on a topic such as flooding or governance.

The wide variety of themes identified in the adaptation plans likely reflects the local and function specific nature of risk and adaptation to different organisations, as well as differing organisation priorities. However, this diversity of themes does make it difficult to compare plans and establish whether individual plans contain comprehensive coverage of the relevant risks and necessary actions.

Not all plans explicitly acknowledge interactions between themes. This creates a risk of siloed working and missed opportunities for join-up.

Inclusion of specific actions and policies in adaptation plans

Most of the plans include relatively high-level actions with a focus on planning and policy making rather than delivery and implementation. This suggests that the organisations may not yet be at a sufficiently mature stage of adaptation planning to have a delivery focus. For example, many plans include actions like ‘Set out a proactive approach to climate change adaptation within our Asset Management Plan’ and ‘Develop policies to strengthen the resilience of the transport network to the impacts of climate change’. In some cases, actions like ‘maximise partnership approaches’ are suggested, without outlining clear mechanisms for how partnerships will be built or who needs to be involved. As a result, implementation and monitoring progress against the action may be difficult (see Section 5.7 for further information).

Mirroring the diversity of themes within public bodies’ adaptation planning, a wide variety of adaptation policies and actions have been proposed. Some actions were common across many plans. For example, many included adaptation actions aiming to expand and protect green space and actions to improve governance such as incorporating climate risk into corporate risk registers; note, this is a specific capability and range of tasks within the ACF. Fewer plans included actions to reduce risks due to high temperatures. Actions aiming to address the higher exposure of rural and island communities were limited, even amongst local authorities with significant rural populations. In some cases, including the plans for Transport Scotland, Angus Council and Shetland Council, vulnerability due to the greater reliance of remote communities on specific transport links such as ferries and other infrastructure was acknowledged but specific, targeted actions to address this were not included or have not yet been developed. One exception was the Highland Council, which included an action to map vulnerable communities and sectors in their 2012 plan (Highland Council, 2012).

Overall, there is limited information on how actions have been prioritised, including a lack of direct use of information from risk assessments to ensure the most significant risks are acted upon. Historic Environment Scotland’s plan was an exception in that a relatively detailed methodology document accompanies their adaptation plan.

In many cases, it was not clear from reviewing the documents in this study how many plans commit to new or strengthened actions, rather than reiterating actions that would take place anyway. For example, many actions relating to flooding may be covered under existing local flood risk management work. This is a challenge when it comes to costing adaptation specifically.

Adaptation and mitigation actions are sometimes mis-categorised. SSN found, in their analysis of PBCCDRs for the year 2022/23, that 10% of NHS boards and 6% of local authorities listed mitigation measures in response to questions on adaptation (Sustainable Scotland Network, 2023). Examples of this confusion have been found within a number of plans. For example, the resilience section of one Local Authority plan refers to ‘milestones for our resilience journey to reduce GHG emissions’. There is an opportunity here for further training and knowledge dissemination.

Opportunities to join up adaptation and mitigation action, particularly where a single climate strategy covers both areas of work, have often been missed. For example, a number of plans contain actions to improve insulation of buildings to reduce emissions without explicitly considering the potential synergies with adaptation, such as the potential to reduce costs by retrofitting adaptation and mitigation measures to buildings at the same time, or the increased risks of overheating in insulated but poorly ventilated buildings. However, there are examples of plans that do acknowledge the synergies even if this is not a major focus. For example, NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde have an action to ‘Ensure energy models take account of future weather trends and models to be monitored in use with systems adjusted as required’ (NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, 2023) and East Ayrshire acknowledges the benefits of green infrastructure for reducing flooding, improving biodiversity and sequestering carbon (East Ayrshire Council, 2021).

Approach to monitoring, evaluation and learning

Monitoring, evaluation and learning is a key part of the adaptation policy cycle which allows progress and performance to be understood and learned from to inform future policy development and implementation. It also allows decision makers flexibility to evolve their approaches as new information becomes available. At the national level, the Scottish Government have developed a monitoring and evaluation framework as part of SNAP3.

Of the NHS boards and Local Authorities that have specific, dedicated adaptation plans, or broader climate strategies that include adaptation, just under two thirds explicitly mention some kind of monitoring and evaluation arrangements. A similar number have plans to review and update these, many on an annual timescale but all within the next five years.

The reason for some plans not including monitoring and evaluation plans is not known but could be due to a lack of resource or a lack of skills or knowledge. Some of those not including monitoring plans have used standards or guidance in the development of their plans, such as the Adaptation Scotland Capability Framework.

The mechanisms proposed for monitoring and evaluation vary across different organisations. In some cases, plans acknowledge the need for monitoring and evaluation but do not include designs of specific frameworks, relying instead upon reporting through the PBCCD or setting up a steering group to review on an ongoing basis.

For the most mature plans, more detailed frameworks of governance and internal reporting, including performance indicators for actions and themes, have been developed. However, indicators are not comparable across different plans, meaning comparison or aggregation across different organisations would not be straightforward. For example, both the Aberdeen City Council and Dundee Council action plans contain actions relating to raising awareness of the health impacts of climate change. Aberdeen suggest measuring progress as the number of people reached by the campaigns for raising awareness (Aberdeen City Council, 2022) whereas Dundee proposes indicators relating to the number of people affected by illness (Sustainable Dundee and the Dundee Partnership, 2019)

Variations in key performance indicators across the public sector is likely to make it harder to consistently track progress at a national level.

Information on costs and benefits in the public body adaptation plans

Introduction

How have we defined costs and benefits?

This was interpreted broadly to include both monetary and non-monetised costs, as opposed to only costs associated with financial spend, and benefits associated with adaptation actions. To holistically appraise the costs and benefits of adaptation, three types of information need to be considered:

• The cost of inaction – costs incurred due to the impacts of climate change in the absence of further adaptation
• The cost of adaptation measures – the spend and investment required to implement adaptation measures
• Ancillary costs and benefits – the wider impacts of adaptation action on the economy, society and the environment that go beyond avoided losses. For example, adaptation actions that enhance green space could result in benefits to human health and wellbeing.

The IPCC’s view on cost-benefit analysis

In ‘Economics of Adaptation’, the IPCC acknowledges that conventional cost-benefit analysis may not be the most suitable approach when it comes to adaptation measures (IPCC, 2018). The report cites several reasons for this, such as the inherent uncertainty associated with different climate futures, and the difficulty of ascribing a monetary value to non-market impacts on public health, heritage, ecosystem services, etc.

According to the IPCC, ‘A narrow focus on quantifiable costs and benefits can bias decisions against the poor and against ecosystems and those in the future whose values can be excluded or are understated.’ On this basis, the IPCC suggests that, in some cases, it may be more appropriate to use multi-metric decision making techniques. These might better enable decision-makers to weigh competing objectives.

In the UK context, research has recently been conducted into the latest methods for valuing the costs and benefits of climate risk and adaptation policy (Cambridge Econometrics, 2023) and the economics of adaptation (Advisory Group on the Economics of Climate Change Risk and Adaptation, 2024) in preparation for the fourth UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4). Other relevant recent work includes The Costs of Adaptation, and the Economic Costs and Benefits of Adaptation in the UK (Paul Watkiss Associates, 2022), Barriers to financing adaptation actions in the UK (Frontier Economics & Paul Watkiss Associates, 2022) and Investment for a Well Adapted UK (Climate Change Committee, 2023).

Local authorities

Overview

The majority of quantitative cost-benefit information comes from two regional economic impact assessments produced on behalf of Climate Ready Clyde and Highland Adapts. More information on these is provided in the next section.

Several Local Authorities described quantitative costs or benefits in a more light-touch way, making a small number of references to these without providing more detail. Usually this referred to flood damages or infrastructure. For example, the City of Edinburgh’s adaptation plan (Edinburgh City Council, 2016) refers to the cost of maintaining and repairing coastal defences between 2008-2011 (£740,000). Aberdeen City Council and Dundee City Council both describe the cost of damage due to unmitigated flooding. The cost of flooding to Aberdeen without intervention is estimated to be £12.5m (Aberdeen Adapts, 2022) and the cost to residents, businesses and infrastructure in Broughty Ferry in Dundee of a 1 in 200 year flood is estimated to be in the region of £97m. (Sustainable Dundee and the Dundee Partnership, 2019).

It is considered likely that Local Authorities have a more detailed understanding of the costs and benefits of flood prevention measures because they have statutory duties in relation to flooding. There may be other topic areas where the cost of interventions has been or could be estimated by different departments, even if it is not captured within their climate adaptation plans. An example might be the cost of repairing potholes, which could increase due to climate change because of increased temperatures, rainfall and freeze-thaw cycles.

Some adaptation plans referred to the cost of inaction. This was framed as part of the overall rationale for taking steps to address climate change, rather than being used as a counterfactual to support specific adaptation measures. For example, Aberdeen City Council refers to the Stern Review (Stern, 2006) when explaining that the benefits of early action outweigh the costs of action. It also mentions the potential impact on gross domestic product (GDP). Perth and Kinross state that, ‘In general, each £1 spent on resilience measures has been demonstrated to generate between £2-£10 pounds in savings’ although no citation was provided (Perth and Kinross Council, 2021).

Several Local Authorities acknowledge the lack of information on costs and benefits, e.g.:

• The LCLIP for Aberdeenshire (Aberdeenshire Council, 2019) recommends introducing a ‘cost code to capture costs from all extreme weather events’ and indicates that the Council may investigate setting up a central fund for climate adaptation.
• One of the City of Edinburgh’s stated objectives in the draft Climate Ready Edinburgh Plan 202-2030 (Edinburgh City Council, 2023) is to ‘Carry out further research to enable options appraisals and cost benefit analysis of different adaptation responses in Edinburgh to improve decision making.’

The regional economic impact assessments (see Section 6.2.2) demonstrate that Local Authorities have been working together to address this gap, and there is evidence that there is an appetite for further collaboration. It is understood that Climate Ready Clyde has been exploring options to develop an Adaptation Finance Lab to help ‘support alternative financing models for adaptation action within Glasgow City Region’ (Climate Ready Clyde, 2021).

Regional reports

Two regional economic assessments have been produced by Paul Watkiss Associates on behalf of Climate Ready Clyde and Highland Adapts. These reports consider the overall economic impacts of climate change on these regions and key sectors, providing a monetary valuation of ‘relevant costs and benefits to Government and society’. Together, these reports provide an evidence base for nine out of 32 Local Authority areas.

It should be noted that the costs set out in these reports relate to climate risks, i.e. the potential cost of inaction, as opposed to adaptation actions.

The methodology of both reports is informed by guidance set out in the UK Government HM Treasury Green Book, which is the guidance the government provides for appraising, monitoring and evaluating programmes, projects and policies. This mirrors the approach taken to quantify costs as part of the first, second and third UK CCRAs (although CCRA4 is expected to use a different approach).

The data sources used in these analyses come from a range of studies, with estimates of future cost based on different socio-economic and climate change scenarios. Therefore, the authors acknowledge that they do not necessarily provide a like-for-like comparison across different risks. They also state that the values would need to be adjusted for use in a cost-benefit analysis.

For Climate Ready Clyde, the regional analysis (Paul Watkiss Associates, 2019) includes:

• Current economic costs of extreme weather events, based on four recent examples in the Glasgow City region (the report notes that these costs are likely to be significant underestimates due to data gaps):
  • December 2015 river floods (£4m – £10m)
  • July 2012 surface water floods (£1m – £2m)
  • October 2017 wind storm (>£20m)
  • 2013 warm and dry summer (£20m)
• Potential economic costs (and benefits) associated with all risks identified in the regional CCRA
• Total economic costs, expressed as indicative order of magnitude estimates for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

For Highland Adapts (Paul Watkiss Associates, 2024), it includes:

• Economic costs of flooding and wildfires
• Potential health costs of higher temperatures
• Impacts of reduced heating degree days
• Macro-economic or economy-wide costs

As part of the Highland Adapts project, additional sector reports were provided for (1) Energy (2) Forestry and Timber (3) Food and Drink.

We found one example of an organisation that had attempted to downscale these costs to a more local level. East Dunbartonshire Council has produced an evidence report to inform its forthcoming climate adaptation plan and this contains indicative costs against each of the adaptation actions that are proposed (East Dunbartonshire Council, 2019). However, in general, it is not clear how a Local Authority would be expected to downscale these estimates to support a business case for a specific, local project. Therefore, in addition to this type of regional assessment, additional forms of evidence may be needed.

Reflecting on the quantitative information available to Local Authorities, at present the majority comes from these two reports by a single consultancy firm. While we do not suggest that there is any issue with the methodology, there would be higher confidence in the results if they could be validated using different approaches.

NHS boards

All NHS Boards are required to undertake a CCRA using a standard template. The intention is that the information is then turned into a climate adaptation plan. The form prompts the user to indicate the financial cost of responding to each of the hazards that are identified.

In the CCRA template, costs are represented as a range which users can select from a drop-down menu. It is possible that the responses are simply estimates based on the user’s judgment rather than drawing from more detailed analysis.

This study reviewed CCRAs for 20 out of 22 NHS Boards. Of those that were reviewed:

• Two only included a risk assessment, with no adaptation actions or cost information.
• Two included adaptation actions, but left the cost section blank.
• The remaining 16 provided costs for some or most of the adaptation actions. However:
  • In three cases, the same costs were listed in each row, which may indicate an error or oversight.
  • In one case, the NHS Board only included costs for 3 out of 32 actions; however, rather than indicating a range using the drop-down menu, those costs appear to be specific quotes for building repair/upgrade work.

The guidance provided within the spreadsheet specifies that the financial costs relate to the cost to implement the proposed adaptation measure. However, it appears that some users have interpreted this in different ways, with some appearing to describe the cost of repairing damage, i.e. the cost of inaction.

Note the following:

• Aside from NHS Dumfries and Galloway, which included an extract of its risk assessment in its PBCCDR, none of the CCRAs are publicly available. This means that some of the cost information cannot be shared.
• Aether did not have access to any information about the methodology used to calculate the costs. Therefore, we cannot comment on the details of what the estimates include. For example, in several CCRAs, costs were indicated against a specific risk, but the proposed response was to undertake a further assessment of that risk. It is not clear whether the cost refers to the price of the assessment, or the potential cost of repairing damage.

Other organisations reviewed

The 2024 Adaptation Plan for Scottish Water (Scottish Water, 2024) describes the level of investment needed to respond to climate change impacts as being ‘in the range of £2-5 billion over the next 25 years.’ This was notable because it refers to costs as an ‘investment’, a term which acknowledges the long-term benefits and payback. However, the report does not explain how this figure was obtained. There are a few other similar costs cited, including £1.5bn having been invested in flooding/environmental projects in Glasgow, and £500m further investment needed for combined sewer overflows.

Transport Scotland’s adaptation plan (Transport Scotland, 2021) does not contain any quantitative information on costs or benefits. However, it contains information which suggests that these will be considered separately. For instance, a Vulnerable Locations Group has been established, which is expected to ‘deliver cost effective actions in the short term whilst developing a move to a long-term proactive approach, including a dedicated budget for climate adaptation.’

Historic Environment Scotland’s adaptation plan (Historic Environment Scotland, 2021) references the ‘triple dividend of adaptation, which is discussed qualitatively. This includes: (1) avoided losses (2) economic gains and (3) social, environmental and cultural benefits.

Key points regarding quantitative costs and benefits

Local Authorities: Overall, there is very little quantitative information on costs and benefits within Local Authority adaptation plans. Costs and benefits are addressed qualitatively to varying levels of detail. Two regional economic impact assessments have been produced, for Climate Ready Clyde and Highland Adapts, which together cover nine out of 32 Local Authorities. A small number of other adaptation plans cite costs for specific measures, mostly linked to flood damage and flood infrastructure.

NHS Boards: Those that undertake a CCRA using the standard template are prompted to record costs against individual risks, but not all have done so. In many cases it is not clear what the costs refer to. The costs primarily relate to the cost of upgrading infrastructure or repairing damage to assets (e.g. due to flooding).

Other organisations: Scottish Water referred to total investment costs at a high level in its adaptation plan. Transport Scotland and Climate Ready HES both address costs and benefits from a qualitative standpoint.

Reflections on the adaptation planning landscape

Maturity of adaptation plans

This section describes the overall maturity of adaptation plans, which can be assessed in different ways.

SSN measures the extent of adaptation action reported by organisations in their PBCCDs on a scale from ‘none’ to ‘advanced’, where advanced is defined as a ‘strategy or adaptation pathway with targets to assess progress on risk management and actions to address shortfalls.’

The Adaptation Scotland Capability Framework (Adaptation Scotland, 2019) rates organisations’ adaptive capacity as starting, intermediate, advanced or mature along four different axes relating to culture and resources, understanding, planning and implementation and working together. A benchmarking tool is provided for organisations to assess their own maturity. As there is no overall rating, an organisation can be ‘mature’ in one of the capabilities, but ‘starting’ in another. For more information, see Appendix C.

Within this report we have not formally defined a scale for how the maturity of an adaptation plan should be assessed. However, we have looked beyond reported action in the PBCCDRs to consider dimensions that influence the maturity of specific, dedicated climate adaptation plans where they exist. Dimensions that contribute to a mature plan, that have been discussed throughout this report, include:

• Clear objectives and a vision for adaptation are defined.
• A range of hazards and future scenarios are considered in a risk assessment that provides an evidence-based plan.
• Individual actions are specific, have ownership, timescales, resourcing and relevance.
• Monitoring and evaluation is in place.
• The plan has been co-developed with stakeholders.
• Synergies with mitigation actions are understood and exploited but adaptation and mitigation are not conflated.

SSN’s most recent summary analysis of PBCCDRs (Sustainable Scotland Network, 2023) assessed the extent of adaptation action reported, finding that 28% of local authorities and 65% of NHS boards reported limited adaptation planning, with 15% of NHS boards reporting no action at all.

There are some examples of more mature plans adhering to the principles outlined above, particularly amongst local authorities and the ‘other’ organisations reviewed here. For example, the City of Edinburgh Council updated its previous adaptation plan this year and the new plan contains numerous features of a more mature approach, including undergoing a consultation process during its development, setting out a high-level vision for adaptation and including timescales and ownership of specific actions. Conversely, there are also local authorities without consolidated adaptation planning and those that have confused adaptation and mitigation, so overall there is a wide range of capacity and maturity of planning in Scotland.

Unlike Local Authorities, all of the NHS plans were underpinned by a CCRA. They could be considered more mature than Local Authority plans by that metric. However, they generally focused on a narrower range of risks. It is therefore difficult to compare their maturity on a like-for-like basis.

This range of maturity and understanding across public bodies should be taken into account as further adaptation guidance is developed. Further work to understand the barriers for organisations to reach a greater level of maturity would be useful. It is acknowledged that organisations such as Sniffer may already have explored this topic and that Adaptation Scotland’s PSCAN offers an opportunity for organisations with less mature planning learn from those at a more advanced stage.

Finally, although this study did not specifically seek to compare adaptation plans against mitigation plans, it appears that adaptation plans are less mature overall.

Gaps and omissions in the adaptation plans reviewed

When taking a broad view of the documents that have been reviewed as part of this study, there are several notable gaps and omissions. The missing information may be recorded by public bodies in another form, or answers may be known internally by the organisation. Nevertheless, these gaps and omissions may have policy implications and could be investigated further to identify barriers to effective public body adaptation planning. These are presented in no particular order.

• With the exception of flooding, the implications for emergency planning and risk management were generally omitted from Local Authorities’ plans. For example, the potential need to revise major incident plans to reflect more severe weather events.
• Few organisations made an explicit link between adaptation and mitigation actions. Some of them mentioned potential co-benefits or the risk of unintended consequences. However, our team found various instances where there were linkages that had not been explored. This was not limited to mitigation but also applies to policies on health, biodiversity/nature, etc.
• Some public bodies provided evidence of engaging with stakeholders such as business groups or utility companies. However, the adaptation plans that were reviewed in this study contained relatively limited information about how the public bodies engaged with, and sought input from, affected communities. A few (e.g. Shetland, Aberdeen) did refer to having held public events. It is acknowledged that various forms of community engagement have been undertaken (examples include, but are not limited to, the Highland Adapts/Outer Hebrides Climate Story Maps and work undertaken as part of Climate Ready Clyde) which may not be referenced in published adaptation plans.
• Where organisations had produced their own adaptation plans, these generally did not appear to be coordinated with other public bodies operating in the same area except where regional partnerships exist. Several plans mentioned the need to consult with stakeholders, or cross-referenced regional studies that have been carried out. There was one example of an NHS board acknowledging that its adaptation response would rely in part on action taken by the Local Authority. However, that Council has not yet produced an adaptation plan so this desk review was unable determine the extent to which collaborative working may be taking place.
• Where climate risk assessments were carried out, hazards were usually considered, but vulnerability and exposure were frequently not addressed. It is therefore difficult to state whether organisations have targeted their adaptation actions appropriately.
• NHS boards that followed the CCRA template generally assessed the impacts of climate change on particular assets (e.g. flooding to car parks). They generally did not consider how climate change would affect the types of services they provide (e.g. having to treat different diseases).

Potential barriers

The scope of this study did not include an assessment of what barriers public bodies face when trying to develop more mature adaptation plans. However, our team identified a variety of potential contributing factors that could be explored in future:

• Adaptation might be considered a lower priority than other issues, given that public bodies face competing demands on their resources.
• For Local Authorities, the lack of dedicated climate adaptation plans may simply reflect the fact that they are not explicitly required to produce them.
• Public bodies may have insufficient in-house capacity to develop more detailed plans. This could be due to a lack of time and/or budget to produce a plan or (where necessary) upskill personnel to complete them. Where there is insufficient in-house capacity, the bodies may also lack the financial resources to commission the work externally. If public bodies have received training or guidance, factors such as staff turnover could prevent this knowledge from becoming part of the institutional memory.
• Although there is a variety of guidance available for public bodies to use for adaptation planning in general, some may be unaware of it, unsure how to access it, or not understand how to use it in the context of all the guidance that is available.
• As discussed in Section 6.1, it may be challenging to apply conventional cost-benefit analysis to adaptation measures. Although methodologies for doing this do exist, they may not be accessible for public bodies to use.
• Some organisations provide a wider range of services than others, or operate within a larger/more diverse geographic area. One reason their adaptation plans might contain less detail could be because they have to ensure that actions are relevant across all of their operations. A public body with a narrower remit might find it easier to develop specific adaptation actions.

It is important to gain a better understanding of what barriers public bodies face, because they may require different support and interventions.

Potential modifications to PBCCDRs

This review found that the responses to PBCCDRs that were intended to address climate change adaptation often included information that was not directly relevant. As a result, it was difficult to interpret the public bodies’ overall level of adaptation planning based on their PBCCDRs.

Below is a list of clarifications and questions that could be incorporated into the PBCCDR form or practical guidance to help address this issue. These are intended solely as examples for consideration.

• At the start of the adaptation tab, add wording to the effect of: ‘This section requests information about your organisation’s climate change adaptation plans. Adaptation in this context refers to actions that are taken to manage and respond to the effects of climate change. This is distinct from climate change mitigation, which refers to actions that are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and thereby limit how much climate change occurs.’
• On Question 4a, clarify that a comprehensive CCRA would consider a range of topics, not just flooding. Alternatively, state that Local Authorities do not have to describe their Flood Risk Assessments unless these have been incorporated into wider climate adaptation planning or CCRAs.
• Add a new question or adjust Question 4b to ask, ‘Does your organisation have a dedicated climate change strategy and/or action plan that specifically addresses climate change adaptation?’
• ‘Have you assessed your progress against the ACF? If so, please provide your scores.’
• [Local Authorities only] ‘If providing information about your Local Development Plan, please focus on specific ways that climate adaptation has been considered. If the plan only addresses climate adaptation as an overarching theme, without requiring any specific assessments or actions to be taken, this information can be excluded.’

Conclusion

This work has provided an overview of the adaptation planning landscape among Scottish public bodies, focusing on local authorities and NHS boards. It has described the information on costs and benefits of adaptation that is contained in public bodies’ climate adaptation plans. It has also presented reflections on the overall maturity and level of progress among different types of organisations. In doing so, it will help inform a collective understanding among stakeholders and identify knowledge gaps.

Key findings, topics for further study and recommendations are provided below.

Summary of key findings

The study reviewed a wide range of plans, strategies and other documents that are relevant to adaptation planning. It was clear that many organisations have utilised guidance, tools and resources made available through Adaptation Scotland. Nonetheless, we have identified that public body adaptation plans vary widely in their scope, content and levels of maturity.

There were some key differences observed between local authorities, NHS boards and other organisations (Scottish Water, Historic Environment Scotland and Transport Scotland), which likely reflect these organisations’ different remits, sectors and the geographic areas that they cover. Notably, NHS boards are required to produce CCRAs and adaptation plans in a standard format whereas local authorities are not.

Affirming earlier findings by SSN, this study found multiple examples of confusion between climate change adaptation and mitigation. Therefore, public bodies’ self-reported levels of adaptation planning is not always accurate.

The adaptation plans reviewed in this study were found to contain minimal quantitative information on costs and benefits.

For local authorities, the majority of quantitative information that is available relates to the regional economic impacts of climate risks (i.e. the cost of inaction). This is set out in two reports, both undertaken by Paul Watkiss Associates. We found one example of a local authority that had attempted to downscale this information in order to indicate costs against local adaptation measures. Overall, however, the regional assessments may not be suitable for the purpose of developing a business case.

NHS boards, when carrying out CCRAs, are prompted to indicate the cost of adaptation measures in relation to each risk that they identify. However, in most cases these sections were left blank. Where costs were indicated, it was not always clear what they referred to. Our team did not have any information on the methodology used to estimate those costs.

Flooding is the one topic area where organisations clearly showed a more mature understanding of the risks, historic impacts/damages, and the costs and benefits of adaptation measures.

Some adaptation plans specifically acknowledge the lack of information on costs and benefits, citing this as an area where further study is needed. There is evidence that public bodies have an appetite for collaborative working to address these gaps, as demonstrated by the existing partnerships such as Climate Ready Clyde and Climate Ready SES.

Although not the focus of this study, our team has proposed some potential barriers to adaptation planning that merit further exploration. In our view, gaining a better understanding of those barriers is a prerequisite to identifying a suitable policy response.

Topics for further study

There were several questions that arose from this review which could be considered for further study:

• Barriers: Given the resources available to local authorities, what is preventing them from producing more detailed plans? A list of initial suggestions is in Section 7.3.
• Guidance: There is already a broad range of public sector and international standards that define the approach to adaptation planning. Would more targeted guidance on how to utilise available resources be useful, e.g. more clarity on how to fill out the PBCCDR and NHS CCRA templates to help standardise the outcomes? Should there be sectoral or regional guidance, e.g. targeted at island communities? Or is guidance not one of the key barriers that public bodies face? Note, any new guidance should consider opportunities to address the gaps described in Section 7.2.
• Missing information: Potentially, there could be more evidence on costs and benefits that is not reflected in the action plans or PBCCDRs.
• Governance: To what extent have organisations actually embedded adaptation into their other plans, strategies and operations? From the PBCCDRs, it was not always clear whether the public bodies were carrying out dedicated adaptation planning or simply reiterating work that would happen anyway e.g. flood risk assessments.

Recommendations

The table below presents recommendations for policy, based on this review.

Table 2: List of recommendations and description of the rationale

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Available at: https://www.nhsggc.scot/downloads/climate-change-and-sustainability-strategy-2023-2028/

Paul Watkiss Associates, 2019. Towards a Climate Ready Clyde: Climate Risks and Opportunities for the Glasgow City Region – Economic Assessment. [Online]
Available at: https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5ba0fb199f8770be65438008/t/5c70173ce4966bc8cf635bca/1550849870187/25+CRC+Climate+Risk+-+economic+impact+report.pdf

Paul Watkiss Associates, 2022. The Costs of Adaptation, and the Economic Costs and Benefits of Adaptation in the UK. [Online]
Available at: https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/the-costs-of-adaptation-and-the-economic-costs-and-benefits-of-adaptation-in-the-uk-paul-watkiss/

Paul Watkiss Associates, 2024. Regional Report: Highland Climate Risk & Opportunity Assessment – Economic Analysis. [Online]
Available at: https://highlandadapts.scot/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Regional-Report-HCROA.pdf

Perth and Kinross Council, 2021. Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan. [Online]
Available at: https://www.pkclimateaction.co.uk/climate-resilience

Scottish Water, 2024. Climate Change Adaptation Plan. [Online]
Available at: https://www.scottishwater.co.uk/-/media/ScottishWater/Document-Hub/Key-Publications/Climate-Change/290224ScottishWaterAdaptationPlan.pdf

Scottish Water, 2024. Scottish Water Climate Change Adaptation Plan. [Online]
Available at: https://indd.adobe.com/view/d63df175-559e-4ec7-a2b5-8227596a710e

Stern, N., 2006. The Economics of Climate Change, s.l.: s.n.

Sustainable Dundee and the Dundee Partnership, 2019. Dundee Climate Action Plan, s.l.: s.n.

Sustainable Dundee and the Dundee Partnership, 2019. Dundee Climate Action Plan, s.l.: s.n.

Sustainable Scotland Network, 2023. Public Bodies Climate Change Duties Reporting Analysis Report 2022/23. [Online]
Available at: https://sustainablescotlandnetwork.org/uploads/store/mediaupload/2472/file/SSN-Analysis-Report-2022-23.pdf

Sustainable Scotland Network, 2023. Public Bodies Climate Change Duties Reporting. Analysis Report 2022/23, Edinburgh: Sustainable Scotland Network.

Transport Scotland, 2021. Transport Scotland’s Approach to Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience. [Online]
Available at: https://www.transport.gov.scot/media/53779/ts-approach-to-climate-change-adaptation-and-resilience-accar.pdf

West Dunbartonshire Council, 2021. Climate Change Action Plan: Taking Action for a Net Zero Future. [Online]
Available at: https://www.west-dunbarton.gov.uk/media/4320717/climate-change-action-plan.pdf

West Dunbartonshire Council, 2021. Climate Change Strategy: A Route Map for a Net Zero Future. [Online]
Available at: https://www.west-dunbarton.gov.uk/media/4319776/climate-change-strategy.pdf

Appendices

Appendix A – Organisations involved in joint adaptation plans

The table below sets out a list of organisations that have joined together to produce climate adaptation plans or evidence base documents. This is based on our team’s understanding at the time of writing (October 2024) and may not be an exhaustive list.

Table 3: Organisations involved in joint adaptation plans

Appendix B – Recent and upcoming work

There are several recent and upcoming developments that will provide further evidence relating to adaptation in Scotland generally, and costs and benefits in particular. These include, but are not limited to, the following:

• SNAP3, which was published in September 2024. This will influence adaptation planning among public bodies because they have a duty to help deliver against its objectives.
• A Local Authority Climate Service, recently launched by the Met Office. This should make it easier for Local Authorities to access relevant data on climate projections.
• Updated versions of the Adaptation Scotland Public Sector Adaptation Capability Framework, Further Guidance, Starter Pack, and Benchmarking Tool will be published in early-2025.
• The fourth UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA4). The independent evidence base supporting this will be published in 2026.
• A regional CCRA is being commissioned by Climate Ready South East Scotland. It is expected to be released in 2025.
• Perth and Kinross, Angus and Dundee Councils are currently exploring opportunities to create a Tayside Regional Adaptation Partnership and have released a tender to commission a regional analysis of the combined climate risk and opportunity assessments of the three member organisations .
• NHS NSS has carried out a review of NHS boards’ adaptation plans and CCRAs. At the time of writing (October 2024) this is not publicly available, but it is understood that the work will provide a more detailed look at the content of those plans.

All of these programmes could help contribute to a better understanding of adaptation among Scottish public bodies, and facilitate planning.

Appendix C – Adaptation Scotland Capability Framework

The Capability-Maturity Approach identifies four capabilities to be developed in the context of adaptation and recommends tasks to support progress. These capabilities are: (1) organisational culture and resources (2) understanding the challenge (3) planning and implementation and (4) working together.

To benchmark, the public body scores themselves against the criteria for each capability using a score between 0 and 3, in relation to how accurately the description describes the organisation. The public body must record evidence to justify the current activity against each task.

As the criteria are open to interpretation, this allows public bodies to apply the guidance based on their understanding, priorities and strategic outcomes. This has led to very diverse outputs across the Local Authority adaptation plan landscape.

For the capability, organisational culture and resources; the ‘starting’ and ‘intermediate’ steps focus on resource availability and allocation, whereas the ‘advanced’ and ‘mature’ steps focus on identifying internal plans, policies and procedures to include adaptation within.

Appendix D – Case studies

There are many examples of public bodies whose work on adaptation shows unique features and demonstrates good practice. A selection of case studies is below.

These have been selected to illustrate nuances in public bodies’ approaches to adaptation planning. These nuances may not be captured in the database summary, and can be used to contextualise recommendations in the report.

Note, inclusion in this list does not suggest that the case study is the best or only example of a given approach.

Considering the impacts of risks on different cross-cutting themes: Highland Council

In its 2012 climate adaptation report (Highland Council, 2012), the Highland Council employed a multi-criteria assessment approach to evaluate risks in relation to cross-cutting themes, rather than looking at them in isolation. Whilst this example is more than a decade old, and will be superseded by the forthcoming risk assessment produced by Highland Adapts, this is an example of holistic thinking. An excerpt is shown below.

To assess the risk posed by identified threats such as severe weather events, a multi-criteria analysis approach was adopted. Each threat was assessed in relation to cross-cutting themes, drawing out potential further threats, and opportunities, following the framework of 12 sectors set out by the Scottish Government. For example, for the threat to water resource management, a risk is identified that ‘drought could lead to mandatory water conservation measures being enforced’.

This approach would have helped Highland Council consider its wider remit and identify opportunities to maximise co-benefits and optimise use of resources in adaptation action planning.

Linking climate change impacts to other corporate priorities: Comhairle nan Eilean Siar Council

As part of its Climate Rationale (Comhairle nan Eilean Siar Council, 2022), Comhairle nan Eilean Siar Council undertook an exercise to map climate change impacts against priority areas within its Local Outcome Improvement Plan (LOIP). It acknowledges that, ‘To respond to the climate challenge and realise the LOIP vision, climate adaptation and resilience must be linked to societal issues, moving beyond sectoral responses and acknowledging the environment as the support network underpinning everything, to enable a safer, healthier and more prosperous Outer Hebrides.’

This is a good example of an organisation firstly acknowledging that their wider corporate priorities are dependent on climate change action, and then seeking to align the two. In principle, this would help to achieve a more integrated response to both issues. It could also help to generate stakeholder buy-in by highlighting how climate adaptation planning is crucial for achieving success against a range of other metrics, whether those are social or economic.

Using stakeholder engagement to inform adaptation plans: Aberdeen City Council

This is an example of a public body that has used extensive stakeholder engagement to inform its adaptation plans. Aberdeen City Council, as part of their Aberdeen Adapts programme, set up 5 stakeholder workshops, in which 41 local organisations participated. These workshops looked at: the impacts of climate change for Aberdeen; collected ideas for vision and strategy; shared information about actions that are already underway or are planned to support adaptation, and examined opportunities for increasing resilience. The arts were used in these engagement activities, and young people were also included.

In the consultation summary report (Aberdeen City Council, 2019), for each theme or question discussed, the report details the number of respondents, the percentage who agreed, disagreed or were unsure and key comments. An example is shown below.

Notably, a need for stronger links between emission reduction actions and policies and plans was identified by stakeholders. This focus appears to have translated into the adaptation strategy that was subsequently produced (Aberdeen Adapts, 2022), which makes a point of highlighting the need to align with actions on decarbonisation.

Acknowledging different types of benefits and risks: Historic Environment Scotland

In Historic Environment Scotland’s Climate Action Plan (Historic Environment Scotland, 2020), a distinction is made between the ‘internal benefit’ and ‘wider benefit’ of adaptation actions. This encourages the adaptation planning team to consider types of benefits, and where benefits might be multiple or could be enhanced. For identifying co-benefits, this aids the process of decision-making in terms of financing initiatives and actions, as public bodies could contextualise financial costs for adaptation actions in relation to costs that may be saved, internally, and in terms of other sectors or competing priorities.

HHistoric Environment Scotland’s dedicated Adaptation Plan (Historic Environment Scotland, 2021), which was published the following year, was also the only adaptation plan identified in this study which included transition climate risks for their organisation. Transition climate risks are the risks introduced when regulators, legislators, consumers and companies start to take action on climate change, and transition to a low-carbon economy.

By identifying transition risks, public bodies can gain a better understanding of the potential unintended consequences of taking action on climate change, and seek to address these. Additionally, considering transition risks may help strengthen the business case for more funding or resourcing, if they can identify upfront multiple risks that could be compounded due to inaction.

Assessing local vulnerability to climate impacts: Climate Ready Clyde

Many of the adaptation plans reviewed in this study consider the hazards that may arise due to climate change, but not many address how vulnerable key receptors are to those hazards. As part of the Climate Ready Clyde project, an interactive map (Climate Ready Clyde, n.d.) has been produced, which shows different neighbourhoods’ comparative level of vulnerability to both flooding and overheating – see an excerpt in Figure 8. This is focused on social and community vulnerability and is based on the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. It also shows contextual information such as woodland coverage and areas of vacant or derelict land.

The information could be used to target different stakeholder engagement approaches and/or adaptation actions at a postcode level, although the map authors acknowledge that a specific household or individual’s vulnerability will differ within any given area.

Using regional information to support local action: East Dunbartonshire Council

As explained previously, for Local Authorities, the majority of quantitative information that is available comes from two regional economic impacts reports on climate risks. This review found one example of a Local Authority (East Dunbartonshire) that had attempted to downscale information from the Climate Ready Clyde (CRC) Economic and Financial Assessment (Climate Ready Clyde, 2019), along with some other sources, to a local level within its adaptation options report (East Dunbartonshire Council, 2019).

This appears to have been done in a few different ways, depending on the action:

• Citing overall costs for the Glasgow City Region
• Referring to the cost-benefit ratio set out in, or derived from, the CRC Economic and Financial Assessment
• Providing an indicative range of costs specific to East Dunbartonshire, some of which appear to be based on internal advice from Roads & Environment or other Council departments

The cost-benefit ratio was one of the most common metrics cited, which suggests that this was considered useful for the purpose of developing a case for local action.

Developing indicators and targets for adaptation: Dundee City Council

This example highlights an instance where proposed performance indicators and targets were given for adaptation actions. In the Dundee Climate Action plan (Sustainable Dundee and the Dundee Partnership, 2019), for some actions, detail is given to help make monitoring and tracking of progress against the suggested actions, feasible and achievable. By labelling them as proposed indicators, the plan leaves space for discussion and refinement, making sure the most appropriate indicators are decided upon. Along with detail on the lead responsible agency for the actions, they support accountability for achieving the actions.

The image below shows an extract from Annex 1 of the Dundee Action Plan.

Figure 9: Presentation of the actions within the Dundee climate action plan, including performance indicators and targets where applicable

Undertaking site-based risk assessments: NHS Lanarkshire

In addition to the overarching CCRA that it is required to produce, NHS Lanarkshire has undertaken site-based CCRAs for its major sites. This recognises that its assets are diverse and therefore may require different adaptation responses. Although the documents are not publicly available, according to the Adaptation Scotland website (Adaptation Scotland, n.d.), the risk assessments also contain information on the costs that NHS Lanarkshire has incurred as a result of extreme weather events.

Although not necessarily feasible for all public bodies, this approach would allow more tailored actions to be taken for specific properties.

Transparency regarding stakeholder input to the adaptation plan: Edinburgh Adapts

The Edinburgh Adapts: Climate Change Adaptation Action Plan 2016-2020 (Edinburgh City Council, 2016) clearly describes what input was sought from different stakeholders when developing the adaptation plan. This addresses input from local business and communities as well as the support received from the Adaptation Scotland programme. It also sets out what stakeholders will have responsibility for long-term governance arrangements. It is also clear about the overall guidance that was followed. This is important from a transparency perspective.

© The University of Edinburgh, 2024
Prepared by Aether Ltd on behalf of ClimateXChange, The University of Edinburgh. All rights reserved.

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

High School Yards

Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

Research completed December 2024

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5567

Executive summary

Project aims

Scottish public bodies need to make long-term investment and planning decisions. It is their responsibility to consider the risks affecting the outcomes of these decisions. These include risks from climate change, which are highly uncertain, difficult to communicate and require specific expertise.

For instance, public bodies need to be able to plan: where to build a new development considering the risk of coastal flooding; how much to invest in protecting a train line from heat damage or coastal change; or the expected increase in winter disruption to services in the coming decades.

Climate scenario analysis (or simply, scenario analysis) is a tool and process developed to help answer questions like these. It assesses the impact of different plausible future climate change scenarios on an organisation, project or strategy. Understanding the impact of climate change under each scenario can inform decisions.

This study reviewed policies, guidance and stakeholder insights, and examined practices and publicly available data. Based on our findings, we make recommendations for the development of a practical scenario analysis tool to help public bodies in climate adaptation planning. Many of the principles can also be applied to resilience and mitigation planning.

Findings

Stakeholders have told us that the main use of these recommendations will be to help with climate adaptation decisions.

We found a gap, as much of the guidance we reviewed focused on climate scenario analysis for financial reporting requirements^[1] and often focused on climate transition risks, making it less relevant for adaptation planning.

Scottish Government and other stakeholders relayed that long-term public-sector investment and planning decisions should be based on climate risk information and approaches that are:

• consistent across the public sector; e.g. they use the same scenarios, look at similar time horizons and use the same data to assess the same hazards.
• based on information that is up-to-date, accurate, useable and freely available
• consistent with climate risk information they are required to use for other purposes.

A data review indicated a relatively complex data landscape. Data availability varied significantly depending on the climate hazard. There is a lack of standardisation across data providers when it comes to scenarios, temporal and spatial resolution, and data format. These factors are a significant source of frustration for stakeholders.

Where our recommendations are different from existing regulations and guidance it is because they are intended to help public sector organisations make better long-term decisions to plan for adaptation.

Recommendations

We recommend that the scenario analysis decision tool covers each of the recommendations in Table 1.

Table : Summary of recommendations

These recommendations aim to support the development of a practical scenario analysis decision tool. This should then enable Scottish public bodies to spend more time on trying to understand how their organisation could respond to those scenarios and less time on identifying plausible scenarios to assess.

Glossary and abbreviations table

Terms defined in the glossary and abbreviations table are highlighted in bold throughout this report.

Introduction

Background

Climate change in Scotland

Scotland’s climate is changing due to the rise of global greenhouse gas emissions with further change expected over the coming decades (Scotland’s Environment, 2024). Average global temperatures are already 1.2°C above their preindustrial levels. Further warming up to 2°C or more is becoming increasingly likely, resulting in hotter, drier summers, wetter winters, more extreme weather events, and rising sea levels. Despite international efforts to mitigate further global warming, some of these changes are already ‘locked in’ until 2040 and are unavoidable (Watkiss, 2022). The most recent UK Climate Projections (UKCP18) suggest that Scotland will be exposed to more intense and frequent extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and storms, and long-term shifts in temperature, rainfall and sea level rise (Adaptation Scotland, 2021). These changes will significantly impact Scotland’s people, ecosystems, and economy.

Climate policy has also been responding to the changing climate today and future climate projections. Scotland’s third National Adaptation Plan (2024) sets out Scottish Government’s plans over 2024-2029 to adapt to climate change. Public bodies have a statutory duty to help deliver the Adaptation Plan (Scottish Government, 2011) and Scottish Government has committed to updating its corresponding statutory guidance.

Future climate in decision making

To successfully adapt to climate change, organisations must embed climate change considerations in their decision making over the short and long term. It is crucial for organisations to develop strategies and make decisions with the awareness that our climate is changing.

This is particularly important for public bodies, which often operate over longer time horizons and have a responsibility for decisions that often cannot easily be reversed (infrastructure planning, for example). It is also important they receive help to do this on a more consistent basis to improve the coherence of decision making.

Scenario analysis is a useful tool to help organisations consider climate change implications. It can be used to:

• Test the resilience of their current strategies and business plans to future changes in climate
• Understand the future potential impacts of climate change and actively prepare to adapt to these risks
• Explore and promote strategies to reduce their emissions and therefore mitigate future climate change

Aims

Adaptation measures can help reduce the risks associated with future climate change in Scotland. However, climate adaptation planning is not straightforward and faces uncertainties in both the magnitude of future change and timing. A single climate projection is likely to be inaccurate and therefore multiple versions of what could happen in the future need to be assessed to inform robust decision making. Climate scenario analysis addresses this challenge by providing a framework to better understand climate uncertainties by assessing the implications of different plausible climate futures.

As climate change has moved up the agenda over recent years, regulators in various jurisdictions have mandated climate related disclosures for public bodies, companies, and financial institutions. This has also included recommending scenario analysis to assess the resilience of strategies and portfolios to different climate futures and inform decision making (e.g. Taskforce for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) in the UK and Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) in the EU).

Regardless of purpose, conducting climate scenario analysis can feel complex and the choices which need to be made, for example, which scenarios to consider, can often be confusing. To support future-proofed plans and strategic decision making, the Scottish Government (2024) has committed to develop a climate scenario decision tool for the public sector. The tool will aim to provide guidance and support around the implementation of climate scenario analysis to drive robust and consistent analysis of future climate-related risks across the public sector in Scotland and enable cohesion in adaptation planning.

This report aims to provide advice to the Scottish Government on the development of guidance for climate scenario analysis. Specifically, it provides recommendations on the climate change emissions or temperature scenarios, timeframes, climate hazards and other important factors public sector bodies should consider as part of any climate scenario analysis. The report also sets out additional features and guidance required by a climate scenario decision tool for the public sector, informed by insights from stakeholder consultation and the wider literature.

The findings and recommendation of this report will guide the development of the Scottish Government’s climate scenario decision tool, supporting public bodies with climate scenario analysis and enabling climate adaptation planning and decision within Scotland informed by a robust understanding of future climate change.

Methodology

The research which forms the basis for the guidance and recommendations in this report was commissioned by CXC and conducted by GAD between March and September 2024. The research was largely based on information from three main sources which are described in Section 4 of this report. The research project was split into three phases.

Phase 1: A review of existing policy, guidance, and stakeholder practice on use of future climate scenarios and climate hazard data when making investment judgements, exploring the resilience of current plans, and developing adaptation strategies. 

We undertook a targeted desk-based review of current policy and guidance in relation to climate scenario analysis, consisting of:

• A scoping exercise to map out the volume of literature and collate policy papers and guidance published in the last five years.
• Identification of further key sources underpinning the literature published outside of the five-year timescale.
• A synthesis of the key recommendations and considerations of these for climate scenario analysis.  

The review focussed on guidance and policy applicable within Scotland and the UK, and the EU. This included TCFD scenario analysis recommendations and the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) recommendations on global warming scenarios to consider in adaptation planning in Scotland.

For the review of current practice, we worked with ClimateXChange and Scottish Government to identify and prioritise relevant stakeholders to engage with. This included those in Scotland already using climate scenario analysis and future climate hazards data to inform their longer-term planning strategies.

Individual and group stakeholder engagement sessions were conducted over summer 2024 in person and virtually. Sessions sought to understand the purpose and aims of stakeholders’ climate scenario and hazard analyses and their experience of it. We examined what hazards and scenarios they had considered, how results had been used, pain points that they had encountered, and what decision-making support could further assist them. We captured stakeholders’ views via recording the meetings and using an online whiteboarding tool, Miro, where participants could record their ideas under question prompts. We also shared our key findings with stakeholders following the workshops to ensure we had accurately reflected and understood their views and comments. We engaged with a broad range of stakeholders including:

• Climate Change Committee
• Dynamic Coast
• Edinburgh City Council
• Forestry and Land Scotland
• Highlands and Islands Airports Limited
• Historic Environment Scotland
• Met Office
• NatureScot
• Network Rail
• Paul Watkiss Associates Limited
• Scottish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA)
• Scottish Government
• Scottish Water
• Sniffer
• Transport Scotland
• University of Glasgow.

To supplement information gathered through stakeholder engagement we also examined current best practice in the private sector, specifically through the work of the Financial Reporting Council (FRC) thematic review of TCFD reports (FRC, 2022).

Phase 2: Identify common themes across existing guidance and stakeholder practice. 

We used qualitative content analysis methods to identify commonalities and differences in the policy and guidance and current practice. An analytical framework was developed to provide structured outputs of summarised qualitative data collated in Phase 1. The framework captured key guidance factors that feed into climate scenario analysis such as hazards to consider, scenario definitions, numbers of scenarios, timeframes, frequency of analysis and expected outputs.

This allowed themes in existing guidance to be easily identified whilst also providing a holistic view of the current policy and guidance landscape.

We also considered availability of data. As part of Phase 2, we conducted a rapid review of the latest publicly available physical climate hazard data. This included an assessment of potential data limitations and consideration of whether climatic tipping points are captured. This included an overview of the UKCP18 data from the Met Office.

Phase 3: Options and recommendations for setting national-level guidance to support accounting for future climate hazards in today’s decision making. 

Outputs from Phases 1 and 2 of the research have been critically assessed to determine the level of prescriptiveness that Scottish Government could take in setting out recommendations for assessing future climate-related risks for strategic planning and adaptation in the public sector.

The recommendations are based on considerations of the consistency required to establish shared planning assumptions across multiple public sector bodies, the needs of stakeholders in considering climate scenarios and hazards in Scotland, the complexity that may be introduced, potential user capability and associated costs. We actively consulted with Scottish Government and public sector stakeholders during this phase of the project to gain feedback and discuss their views.

Research limitations

As the research was conducted within fixed timelines and budget the level of detail may not meet the needs of all potential audiences, e.g. those requiring climate scenario details to support investigation of highly specific and unusual risks in their planning and decisions.

Indeed, due to the budget and timeline constraints, we carried out three stakeholder workshops as part of our research. With further workshops we could have potentially gathered wider and deeper views on climate scenario analysis from public bodies across Scotland. However, engagement during our workshops was very high and the insights we gained from participants were invaluable in shaping our recommendations.

Climate scenario analysis

There is inherent uncertainty in assessing the physical impacts of climate risks. This is due to the uncertain future trajectory of global emissions, and uncertainty around how the planet will respond to those levels of future emissions. The uncertainty at an organisational or project level is impossible to accurately quantify due to the combination and complexity of uncertain inputs.

Scenario analysis relies on defining plausible futures and analysing them to better understand the impacts of the risks being faced. No likelihood is placed on any single scenario. Instead, the relevance of the analysis relies on selecting a range of scenarios under which the risks most relevant to the organisation emerge.

Defining climate risks

Climate risks can be better understood by using the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) framework of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (Cardona et al., 2012). Each of these components should be considered when determining climate risk as part of climate scenario analysis.

Risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability

Hazard: The possible future occurrence of physical climate events that may have adverse effects (damage and loss) on vulnerable or exposed people, assets, services, resources, infrastructure, or systems. Examples of climate hazards include heatwaves, sea level rise, floods, and storms.

Exposure: The presence of people, assets, services, resources, infrastructure and systems that could be adversely impacted by the hazard. Proximity to the hazard is an important consideration here. For example, buildings close to the coast will have a greater exposure to sea level rise than those further inland.

Vulnerability: The propensity of exposed aspects (people, assets, services, resources, infrastructure, systems) to suffer adverse events when impacted by climate hazards. Vulnerability relates to predisposition, susceptibility, fragility, weakness, deficiency, adaptive capacity etc. For example, elderly people are less able to regulate their core temperature compared to younger adults and therefore more vulnerable to overheating than younger people (Moreira Sousa, 2022).

Exposure and vulnerability are often thought of as one but can be distinguished – it is possible to be exposed to a climate hazard but not vulnerable to it, for example by living in a floodplain but having means to modify building structure to avoid potential loss. However, to be vulnerable to a climate hazard, you must be exposed to it.

Whilst hazard data can be relatively generic, information on exposure and vulnerability is normally specific to an organisation.

What are climate scenarios?

Climate scenarios are plausible future outcomes of climatic conditions and macro- and micro-economic development in response to climate change and the transition to a low carbon economy. They were brought into the public consciousness in large part by the IPCC. This is a United Nations body for assessing the science related to climate change whose purpose is to provide governments with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies.

The IPCC define their scenarios by emissions pathways, also known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Whilst these emissions pathways are widely used as different climate scenarios for scenario analysis, in recent years there has been a trend to focus on temperature increase scenarios, rather than emissions pathways. Temperature increase scenarios are also known as global warming levels.

Emissions-based pathway scenarios: These are different projections of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gasses up to 2100. The RCPs correspond to different levels of total atmospheric “radiative forcing” (a direct measurement of the greenhouse effect) meaning that they each produce different degrees of future global temperature increase. There are ranges of temperature increases that could exist for each emissions pathway.

Global warming level scenarios: Global warming level scenarios don’t generally include a timeframe. Instead, they represent a world that has reached the stated average warming for the period (Met Office, 2023). The CCC looks at +2^oC and +4^oC temperature increase scenarios within their most recent Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) (CCC, 2021); as well as considering higher levels of warming and low-likelihood, high-impact events such as climate tipping points (Betts and Brown, 2021).

The Met Office provides the UKCP18 data which are based on regional climate model^[2] simulations. Data is available for different RCP scenarios but also global warming levels of 1.5^oC, 2^oC, 3^oC and 4^oC.

Climate scenario analysis in decision making

There is no single accepted definition of scenario analysis. Broadly it is a tool for assessing what could happen to different aspects of an organisation^[3] or project (costs, income, policy, asset values, liability, workforce etc) under different climate scenarios.

Scenario analysis is constantly evolving to better explore the impacts of climate change on the above listed aspects. As climate related risks and opportunities begin to become more commonly considered, analysis will become more sophisticated and likely produce outputs that better support decision making.

Scenario analysis is a tool to enhance critical strategic thinking. An initial single analysis is unlikely to capture all climate-related risks at the level of detail required. Scenario analysis should be an iterative process where the objectives and scope of each analysis are well defined and tailored to ensure the output of decision useful information is maximised.

Often there will be a trade-off between:

• Very well defined but near impossible to quantify narrative scenarios; and
• Scenarios that can be quantified, but in doing so need simplifying assumptions which may be unrealistic.

Scenario analysis is a valuable tool for assessing and understanding uncertainty. It can be used by organisations to:

• Challenge their current thinking. It is useful in testing if strategies and plans are resilient to plausible future changes in the climate
• Make better informed decisions by looking over the longer term
• Identify potential changes in the severity and frequency of climate-related risks. Additionally, completing scenario analysis may help organisations to identify new climate-related risks.

Limitations and challenges

Scenario analysis is difficult to carry out. For example, it is hard to know where to start and what scenarios are plausible. There is a need to recognise the limitations and challenges around data, skills, and uncertainty relating to timescales and quantifiability.

Data

Data can be hard to obtain and even when available it often has shortcomings like lack of coverage or uncertainty. This includes external data, like those covering the frequency and severity of climate hazards. It also includes lack of data held by the organisation itself on its exposure and vulnerability to climate risks.

Skills and risk awareness

A range of skills are needed to carry out scenario analysis. Few organisations will have access to all of those skills. Many address this by employing consultants or contractors, sometimes at great expense. The recommendations in this report will not eliminate this gap but aim to reduce this burden on public sector bodies.

One such skill is the ability to understand and communicate different types of uncertainty. Scenario analysis is a tool designed to help with this but also requires practitioners to have relevant skills in this area. Throughout the workshops, the importance of good communication of climate-related risks was a key theme. Participants noted the various challenges associated with ensuring communication with the public was transparent without causing climate anxiety.

Proportionality

Different organisations will be impacted by climate change in different ways, and it is the people who work at the organisation itself who will best understand the climate hazards that are most pertinent to their organisation.

Organisations should therefore take a proportionate approach to completing scenario analysis. When certain climate hazards are irrelevant for the organisation (for example, they have no exposure or are not vulnerable even where they are exposed), it is acceptable for these to be left out of climate scenario analysis. The organisation should satisfy itself that these hazards have been considered and agreed not to be investigated further. Stating this explicitly would be considered best practice and ensures transparency in any publications or disclosures.

Research findings

Recommendations presented in Section 5 are informed by three main sources of information:

• Policy and guidance: Review of documents including policy, scenario analysis guidance, and reviews of existing practices.
• Data: Rapid review of 21 commonly used data sources to understand data availability for different climate hazards.
• Stakeholder views and experience: Three workshops with stakeholders including Scottish Government, public sector organisations, and experts in climate risks.
  1. Policy and guidance review

We reviewed over 50 documents setting out policy, guidance and best practice examples of climate scenario analysis in Scotland and further afield. There are different legislations and regulations that bring climate reporting (such as that compliant with the TCFD (2017) recommendations including climate scenario analysis) into scope for various organisations and entities. We also considered any application guidance that went with the legislation and regulation.

Many of the sources considered covered more than just climate scenario analysis, and in contexts wider than just adaptation planning. Due to the focus of this review, greater consideration was made where sources spoke specifically about scenario analysis and in contexts relevant to adaptation planning. These sources are listed in Appendix C.

We identified nine factors that can be used to guide scenario analysis and that are frequently referred to within the policy and guidance literature. These were:

• Which climate hazards should be covered?
• What climate scenarios should be used?
• How many climate scenarios should be considered?
• Where data should be sought from?
• The scope of the climate scenario analysis (i.e. whether analysis should cover the entire organisation / project or only certain parts of it).
• Timeframes to be considered (i.e. how far into the future and at which specific time periods to look).
• Frequency of updates to analysis.
• Whether the analysis should be qualitative or quantitative.
• Materiality (including double materiality).

The accompanying spreadsheet to this report, Technical appendix – Review of current policy and guidance, sets out a framework which compares each climate scenario analysis factor to the guidance and policy reviewed. The framework also provides a cross comparison with insights from the stakeholder workshops and the recommendations given in Section 5.

Key findings from the review indicated:

• The current published guidance is primarily focused on scenario analysis based on requirements for financial reporting. The most obvious example of this is the recommendations of the TCFD (2017), but many other sources are also routed in this, including the requirements for pension schemes (The Occupational Pension Schemes (Climate Change Governance and Reporting) Regulations 2021) and companies (The Companies (Strategic Report) (Climate-related Financial Disclosure) Regulations 2022) in the UK.
• TCFD (2017) mainstreamed the categorisation of climate-related risks as either physical or transition. Although transition risks (risks associated with the transition to net zero) can impact organisations and projects, they are generally less relevant to adaptation planning which is predominantly focused on reducing vulnerability to physical climate hazards. Physical hazards can be divided into acute hazards (specific events, such as floods or storms) and chronic hazards (events that gradually evolve over time, such as average temperature increase or sea level rise). Considering both acute and chronic physical hazards is consistent with a range of guidance, including that from Defra (2023) and the CCC (2024).
• Due to the nature of sea level rise, including its lagged response to emissions of greenhouse gases, and the complex and dynamic nature of coastal change, alternative or additional scenario analysis guidance may be required for this climate hazard.
• Guidance related to financial reporting, often mentions considering a +2°C or lower or “Paris-aligned” scenario. Emissions or temperature scenarios below +2°C may be more appropriate for analysing transition risks rather than physical risks. The His Majesty’s Treasury Green Book (2020), CCC (2022), and Defra Adaptation Reporting Power (2023) all use scenarios based on global warming levels focussed on +2°C and +4°C by the end of the century.
• The more scenarios considered, the more analytical work and data gathering is required. Using fewer scenarios may allow organisations to consider each scenario in greater depth. However, multiple scenarios are needed to capture uncertainty associated with future climate change and allow for more robust decision making.
• Guidance is conflicted regarding the required scope of climate scenario analysis. For example, some sources state the full organisation should be covered (e.g. Defra, 2023), whilst others restrict scope, initially at least, to cover more significant areas of an organisation (e.g. Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 2022).
• There is a lack of guidance on length of timescales to consider; analysis of reporting shows that many consider “long” timescales to be 10 years.
• From an adaptation perspective, it is important to focus on climate change impacts on the organisation, rather than the organisation’s impact on the climate. Considering both aspects is sometimes referred to as “double materiality” (Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2023/2772, 2023).
• Finally, published guidance makes clear that transparency around assumptions and limitations of analysis is vital.

Rapid data review

We reviewed 21 publicly available climate data sources commonly used to source data for climate scenario analysis (Appendix B). These included the providers of UK wide data (e.g. Met Office climate data portal and the UKCP18 user interface), global data (e.g. IPCC’s Interactive Atlas, Copernicus climate data store) and the Scotland focused data (e.g. Nature Scot GIS, Marine Scotland).

We found that there was a very wide variation in the data provided across this small sample of sources. Different data sources provided data on different climate hazards at different levels of spatial resolution and over different time projection periods. They also varied between using emissions-based (RCP) and temperature-base/global warming level scenarios. Climate projections based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), which are used as the basis of the IPCC’s fifth assessment report (AR5), were the most readily available. This is despite updated CMIP6 model simulations being used for the more recent sixth assessment report (AR6) (IPCC, 2021), demonstrating the long time lag often experienced for climate data updates. This lack of standardisation across climate hazard data providers was a source of frustration for those we spoke to in our workshops.

Chart 1 indicates that data availability varies significantly depending on the climate hazard under investigation. Of the 21 data sources reviewed, the greatest data availability is for temperature-based hazards, such as chronic temperature change and extreme heat events, whilst there is very limited data available for more complex hazards such as soil movement and landslip.

Chart 1: Data availability by climate hazard (21 data providers reviewed)

ClimateXChange is conducting a geospatial climate hazard data review project which should improve the understanding of the data landscape for those carrying out scenario analysis.

Current practice and insight from stakeholders

Workshops on climate scenario analysis

We engaged with multiple Scottish public bodies and other relevant stakeholders (Appendix D) across two separate workshops to discuss their experience of climate scenario analysis.

Stakeholders shared their experience of completing (or advising others on completing) climate scenario analysis, their key challenges and what would have helped to alleviate them, the tools and resources they used along with limitations, and their ability to quantify the climate impacts on their organisation.

A summary of key findings from these workshops were:

• There was strong appetite across the stakeholders to learn more about how to conduct better scenario analysis. It was felt that nationally defined climate scenarios would help reduce conflict between parties using different data. 
• Scenario analysis is carried out for many purposes which lead to different needs for data and expertise. However, stakeholder primary use cases were to inform risk management strategies and plans and inform business decision making. Most organisations need to bring in outside expertise to help.
• Stakeholders agreed that quantification of analysis should be a clear aim, but the importance of qualitative analysis is also recognised. 
• Analysis should aim to increase the ability of organisations to make decisions under uncertainty. The impact of “doing nothing” should also be considered. 
• There are advantages and disadvantages to using emissions-based scenarios and global warming levels – each have their place. Emissions based scenarios may be more suitable for climate hazards which do not scale well with global mean temperature (CCC, 2024). This includes sea level rise where a long lag time exists between global temperature increase and the full sea level response.
• Stakeholders can often find it hard to obtain or understand climate data. Data availability can be limited as can the in-house capability to analyse it. Data does not always extend to the local level needed.
• More data on asset vulnerability to hazards is also needed so that risk can be fully assessed. 
• Secondary and indirect climate impacts are particularly difficult to quantify and more guidance in these areas would be welcome.
• Consideration of climate tipping points in adaptation planning is challenging due to large associated uncertainties in probability of occurrence, impact, and timing. It was noted that even when tipping points are breached, the impact may take many years to be felt. 
• Communication of the results of scenario analysis to users and the public was a key consideration for stakeholders and something that was often found to be challenging. Comparisons with other risks to communicate uncertainty may be helpful along with improvement of climate literacy beyond climate experts. 

Workshop on scenario analysis for coastal change

‘Compared to other factors, sea level only gets worse.’

Insight from a stakeholder at the coastal change workshop, June 2024.

In addition to the two workshops held on climate scenario analysis, we held a dedicated workshop with coastal change experts. This was to allow a better understanding of specific scenario analysis guidance that may be required for coastal hazards such as sea level rise, which has a significant lagged response time and that impacts highly complex coastal processes. CXC has also commissioned a piece of research on coastal change adaptation planning conducted by the University of Glasgow which will further contribute to improving future guidance on coastal change adaptation planning.

A summary of key findings from this workshop were:

• Sea level rise and coastal change can be considered to have a unique risk profile compared to other climate hazards. This is because 1) impact is always negative 2) timescales of impact are much longer and 3) the impacts are irreversible. Sea level rise is a chronic risk where the entire current baseline state is shifting.
• Sea level rise will affect erosion rates and wave heights. It will impact drainage systems, structures, natural features and ecosystems. The complex interaction between sea level rise and other systems and services needs to be better mapped.
• There was strong agreement that a precautionary approach was required for assessing the impacts of sea level rise and coastal change due to the permanent nature of the risk and the uncertainties associated with modelling, tipping points, and current understanding of dynamic processes.
• Due to the chronic nature of sea level rise, assessments need to look over long time periods. As in the climate scenario analysis workshops, stakeholders were very supportive of ensuring scenario analysis considered a long-term timeframe to ensure adaptation measures represented maximum cost-effectiveness.
• However, for adaptation planning, a focus on timescales may be a barrier to action as we are generally bad at long-term thinking. Instead, a focus on “what would the impact of a x meter rise in sea level be?” could be taken, analogous to the global warming level approach.
• Consideration should be given to where assets/infrastructure affected by sea level rise will need to be moved to.
• Coastal literacy is particularly poor among the public and within organisations. This prevents a comprehensive understanding of the associated risks. This has led to push back on modelled results in areas such as land use planning as there is an assumption that risks are being overstated.
• The stakeholders felt strongly that there should be better communication of the risks and uncertainties associated with impacts of sea level rise and coastal change. Scenarios should be communicated not as pessimistic but realistic given what is currently known and the associated uncertainties.
• The UK Met Office provide a range of datasets for the examining sea level rise under climate change and are in the process of updating these based on the more recent IPCC emissions scenarios.

Additional stakeholder insights

Stakeholder consultation as part of the 2024 SNAP statutory consultation process, indicated that there was strong support from organisations for any guidance to align scenarios with those recommended by the CCC (adapt to 2°C of warming, plan for the risks associated with 4°C of warming). Stakeholders also stated they would welcome guidance on the interpretation of data particularly relating to understanding climate data terminology (e.g. on emissions pathways and global warming levels).

Many stakeholders had previously considered flood risk, but the consideration of other hazards was less consistent. The Scottish Government (2023a) also confirmed this through the Business Insights and Conditions Survey. Over 60% businesses surveyed reported that they had not assessed for coastal erosion, increased flooding, temperature increases or water scarcity.

A scenario analysis decision tool has the potential to help ensure a range of hazards are considered in adaptation planning decisions, encouraging consistency and robustness. Whilst not all hazards will be material for all organisations, organisations should include all hazards that they deem to be material within their analysis.

Case Study: Climate Resilience Strategy (SP Energy Networks, 2021)

The Climate Resilience Strategy sets out how SP Energy Networks will maintain a safe and resilient network despite climate change. The analysis was done considering “four key climate change projection variables (temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and wind speed/storminess) over three time periods (2030s, 2050s and 2100s) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) projection scenarios (RCP6.0 and RCP8.5)”.

Here, by considering chronic risks alongside acute ones, SP Energy Networks can ensure they understand interdependencies between different risks. For example, they note that “sea level and storm surge” could lead to an impact on their operations with sea level rise and coastal erosion increasing the exposure of their assets to storm surge events.

Recommendations

Our recommendations on the content of the decision tool are summarised below and more detail on these can be found throughout this section. There is also a section on our recommendations for the tool development (Section 5.10). These recommendations are designed to support adaptation planning so may not be suitable for scenario analysis carried out for other purposes such as financial reporting.

Table : Summary of recommendations

Hazards covered

Our research confirms that scenario analysis can consider both physical climate hazards and climate-related transition risks. However, as the decision tool will be designed to support adaptation planning, we recommend that the focus is on physical hazards only.

Transition risks should be considered separately by organisations, where they have the potential to have a significant impact on the organisation.

Scenario analysis should however cover different types of physical hazards, specifically it should cover both acute and chronic hazards (see Figure 1):

• Acute hazards are specific events such as floods or storms.
• Chronic events gradually evolve over time, such as average temperature increase or sea level rise.

Coastal change and sea level rise

While coastal change does pose specific threats, as indicated by the Scottish Government’s (2023b) Coastal Change Adaptation Plan Guidance and the Dynamic Coast (accessed 2024) project and explored further in the specific stakeholder workshop on this topic, we recommend considering it alongside other chronic risks as the first stage of the climate decision tool.

This will then enable stakeholders to get a better understanding of the shifting baseline in the future they are analysing, before assessing acute risks under that scenario. For example, sea level rise may bring with it a greater number and intensity of storm surges closer to shore. This is an important consideration for an organisation with infrastructure or physical assets that cannot be moved inland.

Chronic and acute hazards

Figure : Proposed structure of tool, considering chronic hazards before acute ones

Framing hazards as chronic and acute, with the sequencing set out as in Figure 1, should help tool users:

• Understand how baselines like current coastlines, precipitation levels and average temperatures are expected to change over time under different climate scenarios.
• Ensure that chronic physical risks are not overlooked, given their more gradual change which could lead to a progressive decline in service delivery rather than acute hazards that can cause more noticeable impacts and disruption.
• Consider connections and interactions between different physical risks, that in aggregate may provide a different risk profile than when considered independently.
• Ultimately provide a more holistic view, which will improve the standard of scenario analysis.

There will, however, be some challenges, specifically around data availability as revealed by the rapid data review.

An alternative would be to consider sea level rise and coastal change in a separate tool, noting some of the unique challenges posed by the risk. However, our recommendation encourages all risks to be considered in a single tool to help ensure interdependencies (and/or entire risks) are not missed.

Scenario prescription and definition

Prescribing the use of specific scenarios in the tool drives consistency across organisations and projects. This will enable better communication and comparisons supporting improved adaptation planning, particularly where several organisations are impacted by, or involved in, adaptation measures.

We recommend considering specific scenarios, aligned with other reporting frameworks we reviewed which organisations may be required/choose to comply with. This will further improve consistency (by allowing more consistency within organisations) and minimise additional work and costs for organisations.

We recommend considering both of the following scenarios:

• 2°C global warming level (above pre-industrial levels) by end of century.
• 4°C global warming level (above pre-industrial levels) by end of century.

When communicating the results of scenario analysis it is important to clearly articulate the rationale for choosing particular scenarios. Hence, we would recommend justifications for the choices of scenario are included in the tool, in particular, these could include:

• alignment with the updated CCC methodology (2024) and Defra’s Adaptation Reporting Power (2023).
• choosing a 2°C warming scenario allows organisations to assess their resilience against the lower end of plausible temperature outcomes by the end of the century.
• choosing a 4°C warming scenario allows organisations to assess their resilience to much higher physical risk, towards the upper end of plausible temperature outcomes by the end of the century.
• scenarios of 2°C and 4 °C gives a sensible range of likely futures based on current global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (CCC, 2020).

To enable a greater volume of the available climate data to be used we recommend that organisations can make use of emission pathways-based data, as well as data focused on global warming levels.

We have set out a table in Appendix F that can be used as a reference when comparing and contrasting emissions-based and temperature-based scenarios. In particular, the pathways best aligned to the scenarios prescribed above are:

Table : Global warming levels and equivalent RCPs and SSP-RCPs for prescribed scenarios

What are earth system tipping points?

Earth system tipping points are thresholds beyond which changes in a part of the climate system become self-perpetuating often leading to abrupt and irreversible changes that could have a profound impact on our planet (Armstrong et al., 2022).

Examples include melting of the major ice sheets or significant changes in the fundamental ocean circulation patterns.

GAD also recommends that earth system tipping points are excluded from the analysis at present due to the significant uncertainty and difficulty in robustly modelling their timing and impact. The tool should ensure this is explicitly stated so that users are aware of this limitation.

This guidance should be kept under review. Over time, as our understanding of tipping points develops, it may be reasonable to allow for them in the relevant scenarios. For this to be the case more data on their onset, the pace at which the impacts of tipping points occur, and the severity and extent of the potential impact will be needed. It is worth noting that CCRA3 includes some consideration of low likelihood, high impact risks (Watkiss and Betts, 2021).

Organisations may find it valuable to also consider a reasonable worst-case scenario. However, it is likely that this is more appropriate to do as part of emergency planning exercises, rather than scenario analysis for adaptation planning. Reasonable worst-case scenarios could include tipping points being breached and other thresholds being crossed beyond which the organisation may struggle to operate.

Number of scenarios

We recommend the use of at least two scenarios, in particular those described above being a +2°C and +4°C futures.

Considering two scenarios means that the scenario analysis meets the expectations of all the policy and guidance sources we reviewed in this project, detailed in Appendix C.

Climate data provider

Climate data is available from a large number of providers. While some of this data must be purchased, we recommend using publicly available data wherever possible as this increases transparency and reproducibility of the scenario analysis.

We recommend that the tool should point to primary sources of data for different hazards, informed by the ongoing climate data review by the Scottish Government.

Sources of data may be preferred based on a number of criteria: