​​Cost and profitability of direct air capture in Scotland​ 

The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan update recognised the role that emissions removals will need to play in reaching net zero. Direct air capture (DAC) technologies extract CO2 directly from the atmosphere at any location rather than at the point of emissions. CO2 can then either be stored or used for a variety of applications, such as producing more sustainable fuels.  

This study explored the costs and profitability of DAC and conducted an international comparison, through an evidence review, stakeholder engagement and modelling. The researchers modelled the two leading technologies: solid DAC and liquid DAC. 

Findings

• Demand for DAC CO2 in Scotland by 2040 will be approximately 0.1-0.15 Mt, rising to 0.2-0.24 Mt in 2050. This is far below the demand levels needed to make a 0.5 Mt DAC plant profitable.
• Experts highlighted market demand for CO2 as a key limiting factor with the sector currently relying on voluntary carbon markets, which are volatile.
• The cost of DAC is expected to drop by 30%-60% by 2040, depending on the technology.
• By 2040, the cost of solid DAC is projected to be around £560 per tonne of CO2 and that of liquid DAC £340 per tonne of CO2.
• Despite the potential for DAC in Scotland to reach the costs compatible with profitable synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) production, e-SAF from DAC CO2 is still projected to be one of the most expensive forms of e-SAF compared to e-SAF synthesised from other CO2 sources.
• Solid DAC would not be profitable for usage with the projected Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) price of £142 per tonne of CO2 in 2040, but would require an ETS price of £250-£350 per tonne of CO2.
• Low-carbon electricity from renewable energy (especially wind) is an advantage for Scotland. However, given the higher cost of electricity in the UK, Scotland and wider UK are less attractive locations for DAC than other countries.
• Using green hydrogen for liquid DAC increases costs by 33%.

For further details, please read the report.

If you require the report in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.