Impact case study: Multidimensional evidence for decarbonising heat in Scotland’s buildings

Scotland has 2.5 million occupied dwellings, accounting for 13% of our greenhouse gas emissions and around 30% of our energy use. Creating a robust plan for decarbonising how we heat our buildings is one of the most complex challenges on the path to net zero. Over two programmes, from 2016-2021 and in the current 2022-2027 period, ClimateXChange has commissioned over 40 studies relating to heat decarbonisation. They range from the application of heating technologies to the economic and social impacts of adopting low-carbon heating. This research has supported informed policy development and played a significant role in the evolution of the Scottish Government’s Heat in Buildings Strategy.

Co-designed, policy-ready research

Decarbonising heat in buildings requires multidimensional and cross-disciplinary insights and information in an accessible format to a range of audiences across policy, technical and installation, and the general population. CXC’s work has been crucial in helping the Scottish Government to navigate the significant technological and behavioural change challenges that decarbonising heating entails.

CXC’s strength is our strong co-delivery process, providing co-designed research with timely delivery of robust, policy-ready and accessible outputs. We work closely with policy and analytical colleagues to develop the research specifications and access a wide pool of expertise through our procurement processes. Across more than 40 reports relating to heat decarbonisation, we have provided a combination of technical evidence and regulatory and behavioural insights to support the development of policy.

Building a portfolio of multidimensional research

We have responded to a range of research questions from policy teams with the aim of providing complimentary yet specific evidence for policy decisions relating to heat in buildings. This has included assessing the potential impacts on the housing market, considering the role of different funding options for clean heat solutions, reviewing lessons from policy development internationally, and understanding the technical complexities of adopting different technologies.

Projects have also included reviewing the international research landscape around heat decarbonisation and translating findings into the Scottish-context. Evidence reviews have investigated how different countries are legislating for the heat transition, the potential need for flexibility in regulations, and potential routes for compliance.

Technical research commissioned by CXC has considered topics such as opportunities for lower flow temperatures for domestic heating, the role of subscription models to pay for clean heating technologies, and how proposed legislation would affect island communities.

Our projects have also included insights on how to communicate to and engage the public in the heat transition, and deliberative research on a fair distribution of costs and benefits.

Supporting the development of a robust strategy

Delivery of the Scottish Government’s Heat in Buildings policy has evolved since the publication of the first Heat in Buildings Strategy in 2021 in response to the complexities of such a significant transition. Throughout the development of decarbonisation plans, CXC research has helped Scottish Government to shape and adapt proposed regulations.

The breadth and depth of our research output on heat in buildings policy has given policymakers an accessible evidence base that acknowledges the complexities involved in decarbonising heating. This allows for better informed decision-making across a range of interrelated issues.

The policy teams that have worked with CXC on research commissions related to decarbonising heat in buildings have highlighted the impact access to policy-relevant research has had on policy development.

“The portfolio of commissioned research through CXC has been a valuable resource to draw on in developing the Heat in Buildings Strategy. We have been able to access a wealth of evidence and research insight across a range of technology, economic and social issues – from questions on the potential use of hydrogen for heating to lessons from transition policy approaches in other countries. It would be very difficult to get this solid and accessible evidence base to inform heat in buildings policy without support from a centre like CXC.”

Former head of Heat Strategy at the Scottish Government, 2025

Three of our reports published in April 2025, covering the domestic housing market, leases in the non-domestic sector and lowering flow temperatures in Scotland’s homes, were highlighted in a submission from Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy to the First Minister and Deputy First Minister:

“This research contributes to the HiBs knowledge base and has been used to directly inform development of our policy proposals. HiBs policy proposals support the delivery against the FM’s priority of tackling the climate emergency. These reports provide valuable insights into potential impacts that could result from the proposals set out within the HiBs Bill consultation and wider Heat in Buildings programme. These have been taken into account by officials to progress policy positions. The evidence provided by the reports highlights the complexities that are faced in finalising our policy positions to introduce regulations for clean heat and energy efficiency which aligns with our external communication to date, reenforcing the need for Ministers to carefully consider these issues.”

Former Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero and Energy, 2025

The impact of the reports on informed policy decision-making was also acknowledged in a briefing for a Ministerial Statement from the same time: “The evidence from these projects has supported our decision to adopt a new approach to the Bill, which will provide flexibility in how we make the transition, in a way that is feasible and affordable to all.”

Directly influencing plans

As well as informing the high-level policy process, CXC reports have input into specific Scottish Government plans and strategies.

Our report on the potential impacts of regulation in the housing market influenced plans being developed on requirements for energy efficiency improvements. The qualitative analysis and stakeholder engagement in this project, in the absence of quantitative data, helped the Scottish Government to anticipate the suitability of regulations and adapt them accordingly.

Research commissioned by CXC into heat networks including funding and finance models and the potential using waste heat sources contributed to the development of district heating plans and influenced the development of Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategies.

Our report into new build developments across the Scottish Islands found they were already installing zero emissions technologies due to a lack of mains gas connection. This insight, and lessons on the adoption of electric heating technologies in island communities, contributed to the design of the New Build Heat Standard introduced in 2024.

Maximising policy application

Beyond these examples, Scottish Government policy teams recognise the important role CXC research has played helping them to navigate the challenges in developing and implementing regulations to decarbonise heat.

“CXC has facilitated multiple important research projects on the heat transition for Scottish Government. These have helped us better understand how proposed heat and energy efficiency regulations might impact both domestic and non-domestic sectors here in Scotland. CXC’s ability to synthesise highly technical and specialist regulatory analysis to tight policy timelines, and their expertise in engaging and communicating research findings to specialist and non-specialist audiences, have been invaluable in this.”

Senior Research Officer in OCEA, 2025

Our review of international heat and energy efficiency policy has also informed parliamentary scrutiny as findings were discussed in a meeting of the Public Audit Committee in February 2024. It was noted that the project “has helped to inform [the Scottish Government’s] approach to its Heat in Buildings Strategy (HIBS) programme, including how it intends to use regulation to drive changes in how we heat our homes”.

Supporting future development

The development of Scotland’s decarbonisation policies continues to be a complex process. We expect the CXC research to contribute to the development of the Heat in Buildings Strategy and Delivery Plan due to be published by the end of 2026. The strategy will set out the actions, for the Scottish Government and others, designed to decarbonise buildings by 2045. The draft Buildings (Heating and Energy Performance) and Heat Networks (Scotland) Bills are expected to be introduced to parliament following the Scottish elections in May 2026.

Through informing and shaping policies that support decarbonising heat in buildings, our research and insights will impact on businesses and homeowners across Scotland. These impacts will include a range of health and socio-economic benefits such as better insulation and reduced fuel poverty and be realised as policies and engagement take effect during the coming years.