International review of setting and monitoring climate change adaptation targets

Scotland faces a rapidly changing climate, with rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and more frequent extreme weather events already affecting communities, infrastructure and ecosystems.

These climate change impacts are projected to intensify over the coming decades, placing growing pressure on public services, natural systems and populations. As Scotland continues to strengthen its national response, effective adaptation planning has become an essential part of long-term climate resilience.

Through the third Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3), Scotland has a national monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework designed to track progress in building climate resilience. However, while this framework includes indicators linked to adaptation outcomes and objectives, it does not yet define quantified adaptation targets.

This study draws on a structured review of international literature and adaptation plans, interviews with policymakers and technical experts from seven jurisdictions to help Scotland develop robust adaptation targets. It also includes a two-round modified Delphi process with experts, primarily from relevant policy and analytical areas within Scottish Government. The Delphi method is a structured, iterative method designed to gather informed judgement from experts to identify both areas of consensus and disagreement.

The research was not intended to prescribe specific targets for Scotland, but to identify the conditions, structures and processes required to develop robust adaptation targets in a complex and evolving risk landscape.

Findings

The evidence shows that adaptation targets work best when they are clearly defined, built into delivery systems, aligned with institutional capacity, and supported by strong governance and monitoring.

Further findings included:

• Stakeholder engagement with citizens and communities could help shape the early, value-based stages of problem framing with experts and technical specialists playing a lead role in interpreting evidence, prioritising risks, and designing metrics.
• Capacity constraints, including evidence gaps, overstretched delivery bodies and uneven sectoral readiness, emerged as one of the most significant limiting factors in effective adaptation target-setting. 
• Targets are most credible and deliverable when embedded into established planning, budgeting and delivery systems. 

From the evidence base, researchers also established a set of design principles for setting adaptation targets in Scotland and list actions to support an effective adaptation target setting system.

For further information, please read the full report.

If you require the report in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.