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CXC A low-carbon hydrogen deployment model for Scotland for mammoth (454 KB)
Report in HTML

Authors

  • Ben Mouelhi, Ramboll
  • Carlos Martin Nieto, Ramboll
  • Alexandra Lüth, Ramboll
  • Enrica Raheli, Ramboll
  • Ruth Bush, Ramboll

Published

3 August 2026

Contact

Colin Seditas
Project Manager - Climate and economy
colin.seditas@ed.ac.uk
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A low-carbon hydrogen deployment model for Scotland

Low-carbon hydrogen is expected to play an important role in helping Scotland reach net zero, particularly in sectors where electrification is difficult, such as heavy industry, shipping and aviation. Understanding how hydrogen deployment could develop under different policy, market and technology conditions is essential for planning this transition.

This research develops a new hydrogen deployment model for Scotland. The model provides Scottish Government with a flexible tool to explore how different assumptions affect hydrogen demand and the infrastructure needed to support it through to 2050.

This report explains how the model was developed and demonstrates its use through two illustrative scenarios:

  • Pragmatic scale-up reflects a future where hydrogen use grows steadily, but demand remains the main constraint.
  • Industry breakthrough reflects stronger policy support, greater export growth and wider use of hydrogen in sectors where cutting greenhouse gas emissions is particularly challenging.

Key findings

  • The report recommends continuing to develop the model as Scotland’s hydrogen sector evolves and using it alongside further analysis of infrastructure costs and future market conditions.
  • The model is designed to test different future scenarios and support evidence-based decision making, rather than predict a single outcome.
  • In both scenarios, exports drive most of Scotland’s hydrogen demand, with domestic demand led by shipping, aviation, steel and the chemical industry.
  • Affordable electricity and timely investment in export infrastructure are the two biggest factors influencing hydrogen deployment. Delays to pipeline connections with the rest of the UK and Europe could significantly limit Scotland’s ability to grow its hydrogen sector and access international markets.
  • The findings highlight the need for coordinated policy, competitive electricity prices and investment in export infrastructure to support hydrogen deployment.

For further information, please read the full report.

If you require the report or annex in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

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