Research completed: March 2025

Executive summary

The Climate Change Committee’s 2023 Report to the Scottish Parliament called for stronger action on food system emissions. Policy interventions need to address the environmental impacts of food production and consumption while ensuring dietary improvements and economic sustainability.

This report assesses Scotland’s diet and climate policy landscape, identifying areas for policy development and providing recommendations to support the Scottish Government’s climate, public health and food security goals going forward.

The study combined desk-based research, stakeholder engagement and categorisation using a PESTLE (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental) framework.

Key findings

Scotland’s complex diet and climate policy landscape includes several emerging developments and opportunities, yet challenges persist. These challenges typically reflect areas that would benefit from policy coordination and development.

Political alignment and coordination: Scottish Government has taken steps to articulate sustainable food ambitions through legislation such as the Good Food Nation Act. Fragmentation across different policy fields (health, agriculture, environment, economy) limits integrated food system transformation. Coordination between local, devolved, and UK governments remains limited, leading to conflicting priorities. The absence of clear emissions targets for food production constrains alignment with net-zero ambitions.
Economic levers and constraints: Investments in local food initiatives and growing interest in sustainable supply chains signal progress. Fiscal policies have the effect of benefiting high-emission food production over sustainable alternatives. Financial barriers constrain local authorities, small producers, and community groups in adopting agroecological approaches. The cost of sustainable food options continues to limit access and dietary change.
Social attitudes and engagement: Public interest in sustainable diets is increasing, and some awareness campaigns have gained traction. Cultural traditions, cost concerns, and inconsistent messaging shape public resistance to reducing red meat consumption. Food insecurity remains a barrier to sustainable diet access for lower-income households. Greater public engagement is needed to build trust and understanding of dietary policy aims.
Technological tools and innovation: Advances in precision agriculture and digital tools offer potential for more sustainable production. Lack of a standardised food emissions-tracking system limits evidence-based policymaking for reducing environmental impact. Rural areas often lack the digital infrastructure to adopt new technologies. Inadequate sustainability labelling limits informed consumer choice.
Legal frameworks: The Good Food Nation Act provides a foundation for coordinated food policy development. The evidence suggests a lack of strong enforcement mechanisms to drive change. Regulation of food marketing, labelling, and ultra-processed foods is limited. Devolved and UK-wide inconsistencies create legal misalignment across food, health, and trade policy.
Environmental integration: Scotland has made progress in climate policy and land stewardship through initiatives like the Land Use Strategy. There are challenges in balancing different land use functions such as forestry, agriculture, and biodiversity protection. Climate adaptation strategies for agriculture need to be better developed, due to increasing climate risks. The ecological role of grazing land in biodiversity and carbon sequestration is underutilised in policy planning.

Opportunities for action and policy implications

A summary of key opportunities for action is presented in the table below. A fuller articulation of these opportunities, with supporting detail, is included in Section 6, Conclusions and policy implications.

Building a resilient and sustainable Scottish food system

Key insights and policy pathways

Political

Promote more coordinated governance approaches to food policy.
Enhance cross-sector collaboration to support integrated food system policy.
Consider mechanisms to improve accountability across the food system.

Economic

Align agricultural support with sustainability goals.
Explore ways to enhance financial support for sustainable food systems.
Explore the effectiveness of fiscal policies for dietary shifts.

Social

Address food affordability and accessibility.
Foster inclusive public engagement and food education.
Support culturally sensitive dietary transitions.

Technological

Promote development of standardised emissions data for food products.
Enhance digital food labelling to support sustainability and consumer awareness.

Legal

Review opportunities to strengthen food regulations.
Support better alignment between devolved and UK-wide food policies.
Support increased transparency in food supply chains.

Environmental

Promote climate adaptation planning within food and land-use policy.
Balance food security with biodiversity needs.
Explore opportunities to align land-use policies with sustainability objectives.

Glossary and abbreviations table

Agroecology	A sustainable farming approach that applies ecological principles to agriculture and prioritises local knowledge, biodiversity, and low-input systems.
Carbon sequestration	The process of capturing and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide, often through natural systems like forests and soils.
Climate Change Committee (CCC)	The Climate Change Committee is an independent, statutory body established under the UK’s Climate Change Act 2008. Its primary role is to advise the UK Government and devolved administrations on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preparing for climate change.
Food for Life (Scotland)	Food for Life Scotland is a programme operated by the Soil Association, funded by the Scottish Government, with the mission to make good food the easy choice for all. The initiative focuses on harnessing the power of public food to positively impact health, the environment, and the local economy.
Food sovereignty	The right of people, communities, and countries to define their own food systems, including the production, distribution, and consumption of food.
Food system transformation	A fundamental shift in the way food is produced, distributed, and consumed to improve sustainability, health, and equity.
Fortification	The process of adding essential vitamins and minerals (such as iron, iodine, vitamin D, or folic acid) to food to improve its nutritional quality and prevent or correct dietary deficiencies in a population. Common examples include the fortification of flour with folic acid or milk with vitamin D.
Good Food Nation (Scotland) Act	The Good Food Nation (Scotland) Act 2022 establishes a framework for Scotland mandating the creation of national and local Good Food Nation Plans, aiming to ensure that food-related policies contribute to various aspects of well-being, including health, economic development, and environmental sustainability.
Just Transition	A policy framework to ensure that the shift to a low-carbon economy is fair and inclusive, protecting workers and communities.
Net-zero	Achieving a balance between greenhouse gas emissions produced and those removed from the atmosphere.
PESTLE analysis	A strategic framework used to identify and analyse Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental factors for understanding the broader context for decision-making.
Precision Livestock Farming (PLF)	Precision Livestock Farming refers to the application of advanced technologies and data-driven methods to monitor and manage individual animals within a herd. PLF aims to enhance animal health, welfare, productivity, and environmental sustainability.
Plant based	A diet or product primarily made from plants (e.g., vegetables, fruits, grains, legumes, nuts, and seeds). While not always strictly vegan or vegetarian, plant-based diets typically minimise or avoid animal products.
Plant based meat alternatives (PBMAs)	Food products designed to mimic the taste, texture, and appearance of conventional meat but are made from plant-based ingredients.
Procurement	The strategic process by which organisations acquire goods, services, or works from external sources to fulfil their operational needs. This process encompasses a series of steps designed to ensure that acquisitions are made in a timely, cost-effective, and quality-assured manner.
Reformulation	The process of altering the ingredients of food or drink products to improve their nutritional profile; for example, by reducing salt, sugar, or saturated fat, while maintaining taste and consumer acceptability.
Regenerative agriculture	A system of farming practices that aims to restore and enhance soil health, biodiversity, water cycles, and ecosystem resilience while producing food.
Scope 3 emissions	Refers to accounting for the indirect greenhouse gas emissions that occur across a retailer’s value chain, such as those from the production of goods they sell, transportation, packaging, and consumer use and disposal. Including Scope 3 emissions provides a more comprehensive picture of a retailer’s wider environmental impact beyond their direct operations.
Scottish Dietary Goals (SDGs)	A set of nutritional targets established by the Scottish Government to improve the overall health of the population by promoting healthier eating habits. These goals outline the recommended intake levels for various nutrients and food groups, aiming to reduce the prevalence of diet-related conditions such as obesity, heart disease, and type 2 diabetes.
Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 (SNAP3)	The Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 (SNAP3) is Scotland’s strategic framework aimed at enhancing the nation’s resilience to the impacts of climate change over a five-year period. SNAP3 outlines a comprehensive approach to adaptation, ensuring that Scotland’s communities, economy, and environment are prepared for current and future climate challenges.
Semi-structured interview	A qualitative data collection method that uses a flexible interview guide with open-ended questions. It allows the interviewer to explore specific topics in depth while also adapting questions based on participants’ responses.
Stakeholder mapping	A strategic process used to identify, analyse, and visualise individuals or groups (stakeholders) who have an interest in or are affected by a project, organisation, or policy. This technique helps to understand stakeholders’ influence, interests, and relationships, facilitating effective communication and engagement strategies.
Supply chain	The network of organisations, people, activities, information, and resources involved in the creation and delivery of a product or service from the supplier to the end customer.
Sustainable diet	A diet that promotes health and well-being while reducing environmental impact and supporting food system resilience.
Systematic literature review	A structured and comprehensive method for identifying, evaluating, and synthesising all relevant research on a specific topic using transparent and replicable procedures.
Third Sector	The part of an economy or society comprising non-governmental and non-profit organisations, such as charities, community groups, voluntary organisations, social enterprises, and cooperatives.
Ultra-processed food	Industrially formulated foods that typically contain additives and minimal whole ingredients; often linked to poor health outcomes.
Urban agriculture	The practice of growing, processing, and distributing food within or around cities and towns (e.g., community gardens, rooftop farms, vertical farming, backyard gardening, and small-scale livestock or aquaculture). It can support local food systems, access to fresh produce, and community engagement, climate resilience, and urban greening.
Vertical farming	A method of growing crops in vertically stacked layers, often in controlled indoor environments. This allows year-round production and is commonly used in urban areas to reduce food miles and increase local food resilience.
Zoonotic disease	A disease that can be transmitted between animals and humans. These diseases can be caused by viruses, bacteria, parasites, or fungi, and can spread through direct contact, food, water, or vectors like mosquitoes. Zoonotic diseases are a key concern in public health, agriculture, and environmental management due to their potential for outbreaks and global spread.

Table 1: Glossary and abbreviations used in the report

Introduction

How can Scotland balance climate goals, public health, and economic resilience in food policy?

Scotland’s diet and climate policy landscape is shaped by multiple, often competing priorities, making policy development and implementation particularly complex. Scotland’s net-zero ambitions don’t sit in isolation and delivery is influenced by UK Government food policy and wider cross-border complexities. Any approach must align with, Scotland-specific advice such as Recommendation R2024-003 from the Climate Change Committee’s (CCC) 2023 Report to the Scottish Parliament, which calls for stronger action on food system emissions (CCC, 2023). The CCC’s carbon budget for Scotland is due to be published in May 2025, and the CCC has highlighted that agriculture is projected to become the second-highest emitting sector by 2040. Efforts to reduce the environmental impact of food consumption need to be balanced with public health goals, economic considerations, and social acceptability. While the Scottish Government plans to introduce measures such as restricting unhealthy food promotion and encouraging sustainable agricultural practices, significant barriers remain. Public resistance to dietary change, particularly reductions in red meat consumption, reflects deep-seated cultural attitudes and concerns about choice, affordability and accessibility. Furthermore, promoting lower meat diets could lead to economic contraction in agriculture-related sectors, especially the red meat sector (Allan, Comerford & McGregor, 2019). If food system transitions are to be just, they must ensure that rural economies and farming communities remain viable while meeting climate targets, requiring sensitive and adaptive policy solutions.

Another layer of complexity arises from policy fragmentation and governance challenges. Responsibilities for food, health, environment, and agriculture are divided across multiple sectors and levels of government, including devolved and UK-wide authorities, leading to inconsistencies in strategy and implementation. Furthermore, the socio-economic impacts of dietary policy shifts, including how changes affect low-income households or food supply chains, are not yet fully understood due to limited data and evaluation frameworks. Addressing these challenges will require a holistic approach that integrates cross-sectoral collaboration, rigorous evidence, and stakeholder engagement to navigate trade-offs and identify the most feasible pathways for change.

Aims of the project

This report addresses two primary aims:

Analysis of a mixed-method evidence base for diet and climate policy in Scotland using a structured PESTLE framework.
Identification of evidence gaps and the proposal of actionable recommendations to inform future policy development.

These two aims seek to support the Scottish Government in developing policies aligned with climate targets, while also advancing a just transition that considers the nutritional needs of communities, and the livelihoods of people employed in the food system.

Methodology

Research design

This research adopted a mixed-method design to analyse the intersection of diet and climate policy in Scotland. It combined desk-based research, stakeholder engagement, and thematic categorisation using a PESTLE framework (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental dimensions).

Research approach and evidence sources

The study integrated three core sources of evidence:

Literature review: A systematic review of academic, grey, and policy literature, including documents from the Scottish Government, Climate Change Committee, Food Standards Scotland, and international case studies. Further detail on the literature review method can be found in Appendices C and D.
Stakeholder engagement: 14 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders from government, academia, and civil society provided insight into governance challenges, socio-economic impacts, and practical barriers to policy implementation. Further detail on the method can be found in Appendix E.
Workshops: Three stakeholder workshops (one in-person, two online)^[1] were conducted to validate findings, prioritise areas for further policy development, and co-develop recommendations. These involved scenario planning and structured group discussion. Workshop protocols and details of participating stakeholders are displayed in Appendix F.

Ethics and data management

The research followed ethical guidelines from the University of Bath and ClimateXChange. All participants gave informed consent and were offered anonymity. Data handling adhered to the Scottish Government’s “open as possible, closed as necessary” principle. Triangulation across data sources helped ensure reliability and consistency.

Stakeholder mapping

Stakeholders were identified through desk research and consultations (see Appendix A) and classified into categories including government, academia, third sector, public health, industry, and community groups. A database of 447 stakeholders was compiled (Appendix B).

PESTLE framework

The PESTLE framework guided the thematic analysis of areas for policy development and opportunities, ensuring comprehensive coverage of structural, social, and environmental dimensions. It helped surface interdependencies and evidence gaps across policy domains.

Limitations and future research

Due to time constraints, the analysis could not include quantitative modelling or longitudinal data. While the research drew from diverse sectors, representation from the food industry was more limited. Further research should explore economic modelling of dietary transitions, consumer behaviour dynamics, and legal feasibility of regulatory measures.

Further methodological detail, including workshop protocols and stakeholder lists, is available in the Appendices.

Analysis of diet and climate policy evidence

While the literature, stakeholder meetings, and workshops all highlighted the need for more integrated, cross-sectoral approaches to diet and climate policy, each source also highlighted distinct emphases.

The literature focused on systemic analysis and policy gaps, often referring to structural barriers, need for further regulation, and the dominance of voluntary policy mechanisms.
The stakeholder meetings added a degree of nuance on political sensitivities, informal policymaking, and institutional fragmentation, often surfacing insights that were missing from the literature, such as the influence of farming identities, lobbying, and inter-departmental misalignment (i.e. the lack of coordination between government departments, such as health, agriculture, and climate, which can lead to contradictory or disconnected policies).
The stakeholder workshops, by contrast, reflected the practical and lived experience of policy implementation, giving voice to tensions related to affordability, cultural norms, and supply chain dynamics, and offering grounded ideas for cross-sector collaboration.
Taken together, these sources converged on key challenges but revealed gaps in empirical evidence on effective interventions and highlighted the need for more inclusive, community-informed policy processes.

The following sections present an analysis of the issues shaping diet and climate policy, drawing on insights from the literature review, stakeholder meetings, and workshops.

We begin by outlining key areas for policy development, offering a comprehensive view of the diverse factors influencing policy in Scotland. For clarity, each PESTLE dimension is analysed separately, although we recognise that many issues cut across multiple dimensions. In addition to the summaries in Sections 5.1–5.6 of the report, extended analyses and illustrative examples are provided in Appendices G–L.

PESTLE Political dimension

The PESTLE Political dimension highlights key political drivers and barriers shaping Scotland’s food system, focusing on governance, policy coherence, and regulatory alignment. Despite ambitious climate and health goals, food policy remains fragmented; characterised by siloed strategies, short-term political cycles, and limited public engagement.

There are clear opportunities to improve alignment between national and local policies, embed measurable targets under the Good Food Nation Act, and integrate food more fully into net-zero strategies. Policy coherence is particularly lacking in areas such as dietary change, where targets, especially for meat reduction, are absent or politically sensitive.

Public procurement and food supply chain resilience require stronger alignment with sustainability priorities. Resistance to livestock reduction, driven by cultural, economic, and political factors, continues to constrain progress. Meanwhile, policy support for plant-based foods, oversight of emissions-intensive agriculture, and trade resilience post-Brexit, remain underdeveloped.

Improving citizen participation and learning from international best practice are also essential to ensure legitimacy and policy effectiveness. Overall, stronger strategic leadership and more integrated, inclusive policymaking are critical to enable a just transition in Scotland’s food system.

For further detail and illustrative examples, see Appendix G.

PESTLE Economic dimension

This section outlines key economic enablers and constraints in Scotland’s transition to a more sustainable and just food system. While the need for climate-compatible diets and resilient supply chains is increasingly recognised, economic policy and market structures remain poorly aligned with sustainability goals.

The analysis highlights persistent gaps in financial incentives for low-carbon agriculture, agroecology, and alternative proteins. Current financial support regimes continue to favour high-emission livestock production, while support for biodiversity and ecosystem services is limited. High upfront costs and infrastructure barriers also constrain farmers’ ability to adopt sustainable practices.

Trade and supply chains add further complexity to the landscape. Import/Export policies risk carbon leakage and should go further to reflect Scotland’s net-zero ambitions. Small producers face limited access to public procurement and mainstream markets, which are dominated by large retailers and multinationals.

A lack of stable, long-term funding also undermines urban agriculture, community food initiatives, and public food provision. Consumer incentives are misaligned; VAT law and pricing structures serve to limit the uptake of plant-based foods, while environmental and health costs remain externalised. Without targeted interventions, dietary shifts might also result in greater reliance on ultra-processed food or alternative animal products, with implications for health.

A clear transition strategy is needed to support rural economies, address workforce shortages, and align financial incentives, trade policies, and consumer support with Scotland’s net-zero goals.

For further evidence and examples, see Appendix H.

PESTLE Social dimension

The next section explores the social factors that influence dietary behaviours, food access, cultural norms, and public engagement with food system sustainability in Scotland. While awareness of sustainable diets is growing, economic inequality, cultural barriers, and information gaps continue to limit equitable access to healthier and more climate-compatible food choices.

The analysis shows that low-income, rural, and marginalised groups face structural challenges to adopting sustainable diets, including affordability, limited access to healthy food options, and digital exclusion. Taxation policies, such as levies on red meat, may also disproportionately affect households with limited economic flexibility unless protections are in place. High energy costs, limited cooking facilities, and restricted access to healthy food outside the home reduce the feasibility of dietary shifts for many communities.

Consumer environments and behaviours present further challenges. Ultra-processed foods dominate many retail and foodservice settings, while alternative proteins remain scarce or poorly understood. Misperceptions, unclear labelling, and cultural or sensory barriers to meat alternatives reduce consumer confidence in plant-based foods. Public institutions, such as schools and hospitals, have been slow to integrate sustainability into procurement and meal provision, missing valuable opportunities to shape norms and access around sustainable food.

Cultural identity, health concerns, and trust also play a critical role in shaping diet. Intergenerational tensions, media confusion, and stigma around plant-based eating reinforce resistance to change. The term “sustainable diet” is understood in multiple ways, and guidance on nutritional adequacy, especially for meat reduction, remains limited. There is also a need to strengthen support for regenerative and culturally inclusive farming practices.

Crucially, the evidence highlights an over-reliance on individual responsibility for dietary change, which overlooks the need for supportive food environments and system-level shifts. Policies that reshape food environments, through procurement, pricing, education, and public messaging, are likely to be more effective and equitable in the longer term. More specifically, focusing on health-based messaging, trusted community voices, and social norm–based approaches would help build broader public support.

In summary, socially informed policies must address structural inequalities, cultural diversity, and behavioural dynamics to ensure a just transition toward sustainable diets. This includes improving affordability and access, embedding sustainability in public food settings, and aligning dietary policies with both climate and public health goals.

Further detail and evidence examples are available in Appendix I.

PESTLE Technological dimension

Technology plays a critical role in shaping the sustainability, efficiency, and resilience of Scotland’s food system. The analysis highlights the lack of a comprehensive monitoring framework to evaluate the impact of dietary shifts on emissions, public health, food security, and biodiversity. Without clear indicators and centralised data systems, it is difficult to assess progress toward climate and health goals or ensure that dietary policies are evidence driven. Metrics for agroecological practices and sustainable diet transitions remain underdeveloped, impeding efforts to support and scale lower-impact farming approaches.

Digital infrastructure limitations, particularly poor rural broadband, continue to restrict the uptake of precision livestock farming and climate-smart technologies. Awareness of these tools remains low among producers, while Government support for adoption is often fragmented. Similarly, industry accountability is weakened by the absence of transparent data reporting and standardised carbon footprinting systems. Inconsistent greenhouse gas accounting methods, a lack of methane tracking at farm level, and the need for sector-specific targets for beef production further undermine emissions mitigation efforts.

Food system resilience also depends on improved technological capacity in supply chains. Current systems do not adequately support food origin tracking, nor do they account for high-emission foods in dietary data, weakening emissions attribution and policy precision. The sustainability impacts of emerging plant-based products remain poorly assessed, and infrastructure gaps limit the scaling of regional food systems and local supply chain technologies.

Digital tools could be used more effectively to promote sustainable consumer choices and increase transparency in food sourcing, animal welfare, and product quality. However, greater investment in infrastructure, digital literacy, and data coordination is required to unlock this potential.

In summary, a more technologically enabled food policy landscape in Scotland will require investment in data infrastructure, tailored emissions metrics, precision agriculture, and digital tools to support both consumer engagement and policy accountability. Doing so will help ensure that Scotland’s net-zero, biodiversity, and health ambitions are underpinned by robust evidence and smart, scalable solutions.

Further detail and evidence examples are available in Appendix J.

PESTLE Legal dimension

With reference to the role of legal and regulatory frameworks, the PESTLE analysis reveals that Scotland currently lacks targeted legal mechanisms to incentivise low-carbon food production. Regulatory gaps and weak enforcement of environmental standards limit the transition to sustainable agriculture, while power imbalances in the supply chain, favouring large corporations over smaller producers, remain largely unaddressed. The Good Food Nation Act, though an important step forward, does not extend regulatory authority over retailers, large-scale producers, or food manufacturers, limiting its system-wide impact.

Other issues requiring attention exist in consumer protection and information. Weak regulation of unhealthy food marketing, especially in out-of-home settings, undermines public health efforts. The continued reliance on voluntary reformulation agreements with industry, combined with the lack of mandatory carbon footprint labelling, limits consumers’ ability to make informed dietary choices aligned with Scotland’s climate and health goals. Meanwhile, the absence of mandatory nutritional fortification, such as for non-dairy milk products, can impede public health initiatives aimed at addressing nutritional deficiencies.

Legal and governance barriers also slow policy implementation. Complexities in devolved and UK-level responsibilities contribute to policy inconsistency, particularly on dietary and emissions targets. Additionally, legal risks around nutrient adequacy in meat and dairy reduction strategies may discourage more ambitious dietary guidance.

Within agriculture, current carbon audit schemes lack sufficient enforceable emissions targets and are perceived as bureaucratic, offering limited incentives for change. Unclear guidance on carbon markets and inconsistent rules on emissions reporting (including Scope 3 emissions from retailers) reduce transparency and slow investment in climate-smart farming.

In summary, legal reform is needed to strengthen regulatory levers across the food system, extending beyond the public sector to include retailers and industry, enforcing sustainability and nutrition standards, and improving consumer protections. Aligning governance frameworks, reducing administrative burdens, and embedding human rights principles into dietary policy are therefore needed to enable effective system-wide change.

Further detail and evidence examples are available in Appendix K.

PESTLE Environmental dimension

This final section examines the environmental factors affecting Scotland’s transition to a sustainable food system. The evidence highlights that many community food initiatives and new entrants to agroecological farming face significant barriers, particularly in accessing secure land and financial support. Temporary land use agreements and bureaucratic processes can limit the growth of community food systems, despite existing policy. In some cases, unregulated forestry expansion can risk displacing agricultural land, with limited assessment of net carbon impacts or broader public interest outcomes.

Scotland’s climate mitigation policies in agriculture remain focused on food-based emissions without addressing the wider transformation needed across the food system. Adaptation strategies for extreme weather, water resource management, and soil health are underdeveloped, leaving farmers vulnerable to increasingly unpredictable conditions. Localised environmental impacts of emissions-intensive farming are often overlooked in national-level emissions data, reducing policy responsiveness to regional ecological pressures.

The analysis also highlights the need for a more strategic approach to land use. With the majority of Scottish farmland classed as “Less Favoured”^[2] and unsuitable for plant protein production, blanket approaches to livestock reduction may generate trade-offs for biodiversity, carbon sequestration, and rural livelihoods. Well-managed grazing land has shown potential to support biodiversity and store more carbon than forestry in some contexts, yet these contributions are not widely acknowledged in land-use planning.

From a consumption perspective, the environmental footprint of ultra-processed and highly standardised food products remains a concern, as do the resilience risks associated with crop monocultures and supply chain vulnerabilities. There is growing recognition that agricultural technologies, diversification, and the promotion of locally adapted crop varieties can play a role in building resilience, but these approaches require greater policy support and coordination.

In summary, delivering a climate-resilient and environmentally sustainable food system in Scotland will require integrated land-use and adaptation planning, support for agroecological transitions, and a shift toward more diverse and regionally appropriate production systems. Environmental priorities must be balanced with social and economic sustainability to secure long-term food system resilience.

Further detail and evidence examples are available in Appendix L.

Analysis of areas for policy development

We next move on to consider evidence linked to the foregoing PESTLE analysis. The PESTLE analysis of diet and climate areas for policy development in Scotland has revealed several critical evidence gaps that limit progress towards a sustainable, resilient, and equitable food system. This section summarises areas for development, evaluates the feasibility of addressing them through targeted initiatives, and prioritises areas for immediate and long-term action. A summary of identified areas for further policy development, feasibility of addressing issues, scope for collaboration, and suggested priority levels for each PESTLE dimension are set out in Table 4.1.1.1.

Disclaimer: While this report identifies multiple areas for policy development, it is acknowledged that various initiatives and programmes may already be addressing some of these areas to differing extents. The intention is not to overlook ongoing efforts, but to highlight where further action, coordination, or scaling may still be required.

1. Areas for further policy development: Political
A. Key areas:	Fragmentation of food policy across government sectors, limiting alignment between climate, health, and agricultural goals. There is scope to improve coordination mechanisms between local, devolved, and UK-wide levels of government. Absence of measurable targets for food-related emissions reductions, including dietary change. There remains scope to strengthen public engagement and participation in the development of food and climate policy. Lack of robust mechanisms to evaluate the effectiveness of food policy interventions.
B. Feasibility options for development:	Phase 1: Foundations^[3]: Improve co-ordination of food policy across government by directing more resource to policy teams with this remit in Scottish Government. Strengthen local-national policy integration mechanisms to align national food strategies with regional implementation. The next statutory review of the Good Food Nation (Scotland) Act should focus on areas for stronger accountability measures. Phase 2: Scaling and alignment^[4]: Implement a policy impact assessment framework to track progress and identify necessary adjustments. Work towards including clear sustainability and health targets in future Good Food Nation Act plans. Implement a multi-stakeholder advisory body to ensure that industry, civil society, and local government perspectives are included in decision-making. Phase 3: Structural reform^[5]: Embed cross-sectoral policy alignment within Scotland’s legislative framework through new statutory obligations.
C. Areas for collaboration:	Government: Lead policy development and regulatory reform. Third Sector and Academia: Provide research insights and advocate for evidence-based policymaking. Private Sector: Engage in the development of sustainable business practices and supply chain transparency.
D. Priority level:	Addressing governance and coordination gaps will be foundational to all other policy reforms.

2. Areas for further policy development: Economic
A. Key areas for development:	Limited evidence on the economic viability and scalability of regenerative and agroecological farming systems in Scotland. Misaligned or insufficient financial incentives to support sustainable production, strengthen local food supply chains, and scale community-led food initiatives.^[6] Lack of robust analysis on the potential impacts of fiscal measures—such as red meat taxation or incentives for plant-based foods—on consumer behaviour, equity, and health outcomes.
B. Feasibility options for development:	Phase 1: Foundations: Conduct an economic feasibility study on regenerative farming models and their potential integration into Scotland’s agricultural sector. Strengthen public procurement policies to better support local and sustainable food sourcing. Phase 2: Scaling and alignment: Explore targeted financial incentives to support low-emission and nature-friendly farming approaches. Launch pilot projects to evaluate the impact of sustainable farming financial incentives. Develop fiscal policies (e.g., targeted payments, taxation, or incentives) to shift consumption toward sustainable diets. Support supply chain infrastructure investments to improve local food distribution and processing. Phase 3: Structural reform: Develop a comprehensive fiscal policy review to assess the potential impacts of taxation, support, and incentives. Align agricultural support payment structures with climate and health objectives. Establish a long-term funding strategy for sustainable food system transformation.
C. Areas for collaboration:	Government: Develop fiscal incentives and financial mechanisms to support health and sustainability goals. Third sector and Academia: Assess economic impacts of taxation and financial reforms. Private Sector: Adapt business models to align with financial incentives for sustainability.
D. Priority level:	Economic barriers need to be addressed to facilitate sustainable production shifts.
3. Areas for further policy development: Social
A. Key areas for development:	Limited data on food affordability and access among low-income and rural communities. Need for more meaningful engagement with diverse communities in shaping food policy and dietary guidance.
B. Feasibility options for development	Phase 1: Foundations: Expand public engagement initiatives, including community-led research into dietary transitions. Expand public engagement initiatives to address affordability and accessibility barriers. Pilot community-led food initiatives targeting low-income areas. Phase 2: Scaling and alignment: Conduct a national food accessibility and affordability survey. Develop participatory policy design mechanisms to enhance local food governance. Strengthen food education campaigns to promote healthier, more sustainable diets. Phase 3: Structural reform: Embed participatory policy design mechanisms within Scotland’s food governance structures. Ensure that sustainable diets are embedded in national health and education policies.
C. Areas for collaboration:	Government: Develop and fund inclusive food policies. Third Sector and Academia: Engage in community outreach and public health research. Private sector: Improve food affordability through fair pricing strategies.
D. Priority level:	Important for equity and public buy-in but will require gradual integration.
4. Areas for further policy development: Technological
A. Key areas for development:	Absence of standardised methods for tracking food system emissions and sustainability impacts. Limited integration of digital food labelling and consumer-facing sustainability information.
B. Feasibility options for development:	Phase 1: Foundations: Support and shape the UK-wide Food Data Transparency Partnership to ensure Scotland’s dietary and sustainability priorities are reflected.^[7] Phase 2: Scaling and alignment: Develop a digital food labelling initiative to improve transparency. Expand precision agriculture technologies to improve farm efficiency. Long-term: Develop a data-driven food system policy framework that integrates real-time monitoring and reporting tools.
C. Areas for collaboration:	Government: Implement data standardisation policies and invest in rural technology. Third Sector and Academia: Conduct research on food system emissions and digital innovations. Private Sector: Drive technological advancements in food production and retail.
C. Priority level:	Essential for evidence-based policymaking and consumer engagement.
5. Areas for further policy development: Legal
A. Key areas for development:	Limited enforcement of supply chain transparency and sustainability regulations. Gaps in legal frameworks for food labelling, marketing, and consumer information rights. Uncertainty around the legal and nutritional implications of dietary transition policies.
B. Feasibility options for development:	Phase 1: Foundations: Work with UK regulators^[8] to strengthen food labelling frameworks, including clear nutritional and environmental indicators, while exploring Scotland-specific improvements in public-facing food information. Implement supply chain due diligence requirements for major food retailers. Phase 2: Scaling and alignment: Expand mandatory sustainability reporting for businesses in the food sector. Align food regulations to reduce policy inconsistencies. Phase 3: Structural reform: Establish legal safeguards around dietary policy shifts, ensuring public health is protected. Embed right-to-food principles in Scotland’s food governance framework.
C. Areas for collaboration:	Government: Strengthen regulatory frameworks and enforcement mechanisms. Third Sector and Academia: Advocate for consumer protections and legal reforms. Private Sector: Ensure compliance with evolving regulations.
D. Priority level:	Important for transparency but requires multi-stakeholder cooperation.
6. Areas for further policy development: Environmental
A. Key areas for development:	Limited data on the environmental impacts of different livestock systems and land management approaches. Lack of integrated policy guidance to balance food production, biodiversity, and climate priorities. Under-developed integration of climate adaptation planning in agricultural policy and land use decisions.
B. Feasibility options for development:	Phase 1: Foundations: Conduct a livestock emissions and sequestration study to refine policy targets. Phase 2: Scaling and alignment: Develop a national food system biodiversity framework to guide sustainable land-use decisions. Support the delivery of Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3)^[9] commitments on agricultural adaptation, with a focus on extreme weather resilience, soil health, and sustainable land use. Invest in local and diversified crop production to enhance resilience. Phase 3: Structural reform: Embed climate resilience planning into Scotland’s agricultural and food policies. Establish long-term land use strategies balancing food security and biodiversity conservation.
C. Areas for collaboration:	Government: Develop climate-aligned agricultural policies. Third Sector and Academia: Oversee biodiversity and climate impact research. Private Sector: Support sustainable farming practices and emissions reduction initiatives.
D. Priority level:	Important for aligning food production with Scotland’s climate targets.

PESTLE evidence analysis of areas for further policy development

In summary, addressing areas for policy development identified through the evidence review would require a combination of more immediate actions, pilot initiatives, and longer-term policy reforms. Targeting governance and coordination should be prioritised as a foundation upon which to develop emissions tracking, economic incentives for sustainability, and environmental resilience strategies. Based on the analysis of evidence, addressing these areas through targeted research, cross-sector collaboration, and data standardisation would be essential for leveraging meaningful progress on sustainable diet transitions.

Conclusions and policy implications

Diet, climate, and public health intersect in complex ways with food systems, shaping both environmental sustainability and human well-being. Dietary patterns influence greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, and resource use, whilst also influencing non-communicable diseases and health risks. A transition to sustainable diets presents an opportunity to improve public health and reduce environmental impact, though significant barriers including affordability and accessibility must be tackled. In Scotland, the transition to sustainable diets is complicated by cultural and economic reliance on established food industries, particularly livestock farming. Whilst high red and processed meat consumption poses health and environmental concerns, economic dependencies, consumer habits, and social norms around food identity and tradition all contribute to resistance to change.

Crucially, policymakers must navigate inevitable trade-offs between economic stability and sustainability. The Scottish red meat sector supports jobs and rural economies, making policies to reduce meat consumption economically sensitive. Furthermore, plant-based diets remain costly due to supply chain and financial support structures, with change carrying the risk of exacerbating social inequalities. Balancing voluntary industry commitments with regulatory measures and fiscal policies is needed to drive change whilst minimising economic disruption.

This report has highlighted the complex connections between diet, climate, and public health in food systems, and the urgent need for integrated policy responses for sustainable diet transitions. The UK’s 7th Carbon Budget (CB7) (Climate Change Committee, 2025) reinforces this urgency, proposing a substantial reduction in livestock numbers and a shift towards more sustainable dietary patterns. Scotland’s food system has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while improving public health, yet fragmented policies, gaps in governance, and limited economic incentives inhibit meaningful progress. In line with CB7, this report underscores the importance of policy coherence, aligned with public engagement, agricultural and industry support, fiscal measures, and public health initiatives.

Informing next steps for policy development

Whilst significant strides have been made with policies like the Good Food Nation Act (Scottish Government, 2022a), further action is needed to strengthen accountability, set clear sustainability targets, and improve cross-sectoral collaboration. Managing the economic implications of dietary transitions is also crucial to ensuring a just transition—without targeted support, rural inequalities may deepen, and resistance to change may grow. Lessons from other countries have shown that a mix of financial incentives, public procurement reforms, and consumer engagement strategies can drive sustainable dietary shifts while maintaining economic stability.

Such goals require coordinated action across government, agriculture, the food industry, public health, and civil society. A whole-systems approach must ensure sustainability policies are both equitable and inclusive. Priorities could therefore include:

Strengthening governance and policy coordination: Develop a cross-sectoral food policy framework aligning climate, health, and agricultural objectives. Enhance local-national coordination for food system implementation. Establish clear emissions reduction targets for food production and dietary transitions and clarify the role of dietary transitions in meeting this target.
Improving economic incentives for sustainable food systems: Redirect agricultural support payments towards sustainable and regenerative farming. Explore the role for fiscal policies (e.g. e.g. support payments or taxation) to make sustainable food choices more affordable. Invest in local food infrastructure and supply chains to reduce dependence on imports.
Addressing social and cultural barriers to dietary change: Expand public, agricultural, and food system engagement and participation and leverage procurement opportunities to increase awareness and availability of climate-friendly diets. Improve policies regarding food affordability to ensure sustainable diets are accessible to all income groups. Develop culturally sensitive strategies for dietary shifts, considering food traditions.
Investing in technology and data monitoring for food system resilience: Support the development of a UK-wide standard for emissions tracking in food production and consumption, recognising the complexity of this task and the need for cross-jurisdictional coordination. Introduce digital food labelling to increase consumer awareness of sustainability impacts.
Supporting legal and regulatory measures: Enforce sustainability standards in food production and marketing. Align devolved and UK-wide dietary policies for consistency. Improve public procurement regulations to prioritise sustainable food sourcing.
Integrating environmental considerations into food policy: Develop land-use policies balancing food security, biodiversity, and climate goals. Strengthen climate adaptation strategies for Scottish agriculture. Explore the potential role of well-managed grazing land in supporting biodiversity and contributing to carbon sequestration, while recognising that evidence on sequestration benefits remains contested.

Scotland has an opportunity to lead in sustainable food policy by embedding climate and health goals into food system governance. A cross-sectoral, just transition approach is essential to creating a food system that protects the environment, supports local economies, and enhances public health to secure long-term benefits for both people and the planet.

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Appendix A: Diet & climate policy stakeholder identification and mapping methodology

Purpose and Scope

The stakeholder mapping exercise aimed to identify and understand the individuals and organisations who influence or are affected by climate and diet policies in Scotland. It was designed to support inclusive, evidence-informed policy review by incorporating a broad range of perspectives.

The mapping focused on ten key policy areas:

Agriculture
Food systems
Public health
Carbon emissions
Land use and forestry
Water use and pollution
Economic and social impacts
Food security
Consumer behaviour and education
Urban planning and food infrastructure

Stakeholders were assessed for their relevance to these areas and the potential for involvement in the policy process.

Methods

Desk research: Systematic searches of government documents, NGO and advocacy websites, academic literature, and media reports to compile a draft list of stakeholders.
Expert consultation: Meetings with policymakers, researchers, and advisors to validate the list and identify additional stakeholders.
Categorisation: Stakeholders were grouped by type (e.g., government, academia, NGOs, industry, health, community, media, public).
Influence–Interest Mapping: Stakeholders were classified based on their level of influence over, and interest in, diet and climate policy. A rubric guided the assignment of High, Medium, or Low categories for each.

Stakeholder Categories

Stakeholders were grouped into eight high-level categories:

Government bodies and regulators (e.g., Scottish Government, SEPA, Food Standards Scotland)
Research and academia (e.g., University research centres, think tanks)
NGOs and advocacy groups (e.g., Nourish Scotland, Friends of the Earth Scotland)
Agriculture and food industry (e.g., NFU Scotland, food producers, retailers)
Public health bodies (e.g., NHS Scotland, Public Health Scotland)
Community organisations (e.g., local sustainability hubs, rural associations)
Media and influencers (e.g., journalists, campaigners)
General public and citizen groups (e.g., low-income groups, consumer organisations)

Ongoing Adaptation

Stakeholder positions and influence are dynamic. The mapping process includes continuous review to respond to evolving policy priorities and to adapt engagement strategies accordingly.

Appendix B: Findings from the stakeholder identification and mapping analysis

#	Stakeholder name	Stakeholder primary category	Stakeholder sub-category
1	Defra	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1a) UK Government bodies
2	UK Government	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1a) UK Government bodies
3	UK Parliament	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1a) UK Government bodies
4	HM Revenue and Customs	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1a) UK Government bodies
5	Marine Scotland Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
6	Agriculture and Rural Economy Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
7	Diet and Healthy Weight Team	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
8	Good Food Nation Working Group	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
9	Health & Social Care Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
10	Population Health Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
11	Scottish Government	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
12	Food Security Unit	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
13	Future Environment Division	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
14	Energy and Climate Change Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
15	Scottish Government (SGRPID, Animal health) (dairy production)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
16	Environment and Forestry Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
17	Learning Directorate Support & Wellbeing Unit	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
18	Scottish Labour Party	(1f) Scottish political parties	(1b) Scottish Government bodies
19	Food Standards Agency Scotland (FSAS)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
20	Decoupling Advisory Group	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
21	Resource Efficient Scotland	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
22	Scotland’s Climate Assembly	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
23	Scotland’s Futures Forum	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
24	Just Transition Commission	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
25	Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
26	NatureScot (SNH)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
27	Environmental Standards Scotland (ESS)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
28	Environment and Forestry Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
29	Scottish Forestry	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
30	Energy and Climate Change Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
31	Scottish Climate Intelligence Service	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
32	Scotland Farm Advisory Service (FAS)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
33	Adaptation Scotland	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
34	Agriculture and Rural Economy Directorate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
35	Scottish Food Commission	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
36	Ministerial Working Group on Food	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
37	Good Food Nation Working Group	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
38	Environment, Climate Change and Land Reform	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
39	Economic Development and Fair Work	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
40	Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
41	Scottish Government Rural Payments and Inspections Division	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
42	Scottish Natural Heritage	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
43	Scottish Water	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
44	Scottish Enterprise	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
45	Crown Estate	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
46	European Union Network for the Implementation and Enforcement of Environmental Law (IMPEL) (dairy production)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
47	Committee on Climate Change (CCC)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
48	Forestry Commission (FC)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
49	Scottish Science Advisory Council (SSAC)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
50	Science and Advice for Scottish Agriculture (SASA)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
51	Sustainable Development Commission	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
52	Climate Adaptation Team	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
53	SEA Gateway	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
54	Scottish Land Commission	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
55	Health Protection Scotland	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
56	Retail Industry Leadership Group (ILG)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
57	Agri-tourism Monitor Farm Programme	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
58	Education and Skills	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
59	Business Gateway	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
60	Highland and Islands Enterprise	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
61	Transport Authority	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
62	Revenue Scotland (leather sector)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
63	Forestry and Land Scotland	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
64	Historic Environment Scotland	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
65	Crofting Commission	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
66	Scottish Law Commission	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
67	Scottish Fiscal Commission	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
68	Scottish Funding Council (SFC)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
69	Scottish Human Rights Commission (SHRC)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
70	Scottish Council on Global Affairs (SCGA)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
71	Policy Connect	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
72	Advisory Group on Economic Recovery	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1c) Advisory agencies and regulators
73	City of Edinburgh Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
74	Highland Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
75	Scottish Borders Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
76	West Lothian Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
77	Angus Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
78	South Lanarkshire Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
79	East Ayrshire Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
80	Argyll and Bute Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
81	Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (CoSLA)	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
82	East Dunbartonshire Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
83	South Ayrshire Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
84	Aberdeen City Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
85	Dundee City Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
86	Inverclyde Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
87	East Lothian Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
88	East Renfrewshire Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
89	Glasgow City Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
90	Orkney Islands Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
91	Shetland Islands Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
92	Stirling Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
93	West Dunbartonshire Council	(1) Government bodies, agencies & regulators	(1d) Local councils
94	Scottish National Party	(1) Scottish political parties	(1e) Scottish Government bodies
95	Scottish Conservative Party	(1) Scottish political parties	(1e) Scottish political parties
96	Scottish Green Party	(1b) Scottish Government bodies	(1f) Scottish political parties
97	University of Edinburgh	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
98	University of Glasgow	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
99	University of Stirling	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
100	University of Dundee	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
101	University of Strathclyde	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
102	University of Aberdeen	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
103	Scotland’s Rural College (SRUC)	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
104	Scottish School of Forestry	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
105	St Andrew’s University	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
106	Royal Veterinary College	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
107	UHI Inverness	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
108	Glasgow Caledonian University	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
109	The Queen’s Nursing Institute Scotland	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
110	Heriot-Watt University	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
111	Royal College of Nursing	(2) Research & academia	(2b) Academic institutions
112	Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutions (SEFARI)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
113	James Hutton Institute	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
114	Sustainability Exchange	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
115	Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (NERC)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
116	University of Edinburgh Climate Change Institute (ECCI)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
117	Forest Research (FC)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
118	Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutions (SEFARI)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
119	Scotland Beyond Net Zero	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
120	Scottish Alliance for Food (SCAF)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
121	Global Academy of Agriculture and Food Security, University of Edinburgh	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
122	Sea Mammal Research Unit (SMRU)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
123	Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland (BioSS)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
124	Centre for Climate Justice, Glasgow Caledonian University	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
125	Rowett Institute	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
126	British Geological Survey	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
127	British Geological Society (BGS)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
128	University of Strathclyde Fraser of Allander Institute (FAI)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
129	Nesta	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
130	Research Innovation Scotland	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
131	David Hume Institute	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
132	What Works Scotland	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
133	Research establishments	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
134	ScotCen Social Research	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
135	Pareto Consulting	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
136	Food Researchers in Edinburgh (FRIED)	(2) Research & academia	(2c) Research centres
137	Royal Society of Edinburgh	(2) Research & academia	(2d) Policy think tanks
138	Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) Scotland	(2) Research & academia	(2d) Policy think tanks
139	Green Alliance	(2) Research & academia	(2d) Policy think tanks
140	Reform Scotland	(2) Research & academia	(2d) Policy think tanks
141	Chatham House	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
142	Common Weal	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
143	Future Economy Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
144	Common Wealth	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
145	Food Ethics Council	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
146	Policy Exchange	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
147	Centre Think Tank	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
148	Conservative Environment Network	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
149	Capita	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
150	THEOS	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(2d) Policy think tanks
151	The Badenoch and Strathspey Conservation Group (BSCG)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
152	Friends of the Earth Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
153	Stop Climate Chaos Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
154	Keep Scotland Beautiful	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
155	Creative Carbon Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
156	Scottish Environment LINK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
157	Scottish Wildlife Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
158	Scottish Wild Land Group	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
159	Trees for Life	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
160	RSPB Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
161	Environmental Rights Centre for Scotland (ERCS)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
162	Scottish Countryside Rangers’ Associations	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
163	Action to Protect Rural Scotland (APRS)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
164	The Cairngorms Campaign	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
165	British Trust for Conservation Volunteers (BTCV)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
166	British Trust for Ornithology	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
167	The Scottish Conservation Projects Trust (SCPT)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
168	Plantlife International	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
169	The Wildfowl & Wetlands Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
170	The British Trust for Ornithology (BTO)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
171	Zero Waste Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
172	Zero Waste Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
173	Groundwork Trusts	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
174	The National Biodiversity Network (NBN) Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
175	The Botanical Society of the British Isles (BSBI)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
176	The Conservation Volunteers	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
177	Greenspace Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
178	Net Zero Nation	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
179	Green Action Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
180	Environmental Protection Scotland (EPS)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
181	Uplift UK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
182	Labour Climate and Environment Forum (LCEF)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
183	Climate Emergency UK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
184	Tipping Point UK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
185	Royal Scottish Geographical Society	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
186	Scotland The Big Picture	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
187	Sustainable Thinking Scotland (STS)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
188	Fishery Trusts	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
189	Greener Kirkcaldy	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
190	Sustainable Cupar	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
191	Energy Saving Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
192	Esmee Fairbairn Foundation	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
193	Linlithgow Climate Challenge	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
194	Changeworks	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
195	Scottish Policy Group British Ecological Society	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
196	National Trust for Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
197	Scottish Farming and Wildlife Advisory Group (SCOTFWAG)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
198	John Muir Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
199	Greenpeace UK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
200	WRAP	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
201	The Woodland Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
202	The British Ecological Society (BES)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
203	WWF Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
204	Sustainable Scotland Network (SSN)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
205	Sustain	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
206	Peers for the Planet	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
207	Nature Foundation	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
208	Fidra	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
209	FEL Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
210	Sustainable Wellbeing Environment Network	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
211	Party for the Animals	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
212	Marine Conservation Society	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
213	Four Paws UK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
214	Scottish Communities Climate Action Network (SSCAN)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
215	Earth In Common	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
216	World Animal Protection	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
217	OneKind	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
218	Open Seas	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3a) Environmental NGOs & advocacy groups
219	Edinburgh Community Food	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
220	Nourish Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
221	Soil Association Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
222	Scottish Food Coalition	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
223	Good Food Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
224	FareShare Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
225	Community Food and Health (Scotland)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
226	Independent Food Aid Network UK (IFAN)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
227	Eating Better	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
228	Nutrition Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
229	Plant-Based Food Alliance	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
230	The Food Foundation	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
231	Glasgow Community Food Network	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
232	Impatience Insiders	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
233	Propagate Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
234	One Planet Food	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
235	Food and Agriculture Stakeholder Taskforce (FAST)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
236	Sustainable Food Places	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
237	Food Standards Agency	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
238	Food For Life Scotland (Soil Association)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
239	British Nutrition Foundation	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
240	British Dietetic Association (BDA)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
241	UK Food Group	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
242	Food Citizens Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
243	Climavore	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
244	Community Supported Agriculture Network UK (CSA)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
245	Trussell	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
246	Food Train	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
247	Independent Food Aid Network	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3b) Food policy NGOs & advocacy groups
248	Young Scot	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Community NGOs and advocacy groups
249	Scottish Women’s Convention	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Community NGOs and advocacy groups
250	Volunteer Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Community NGOs and advocacy groups
251	Engender	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Community NGOs and advocacy groups
252	Obesity Action Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
253	Scottish Obesity Alliance	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
254	Obesity Health Alliance	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
255	Health and Social Care Alliance Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
256	People’s Health Trust	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
257	Voluntary Health Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
258	Centre for Sustainable Healthcare	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
259	Children’s Health Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
260	Royal Environmental Health Institute of Scotland (REHIS)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
261	UK Health Alliance on Climate Change	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
262	Cancer Research UK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
263	Scottish Public Health Network (ScotPHN)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3c) Health NGOs and advocacy groups
264	Scottish Youth Parliament (SYP Scot Youth)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
265	Scottish Community Alliance	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
266	Involve UK	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
267	JustRight Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
268	Foundation Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
269	Eco-Congregation Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
270	Edinburgh Communities Climate Action Network (ECCAN)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
271	Faith in Community Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
272	Good Law Project	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
273	Scottish Human Rights Commission	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
274	Another Way	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
275	Planning Democracy	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
276	Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
277	Transform Community Development	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
278	Community Development Lens (CoDeL)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
279	Cyrenians	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
280	Eco Congregation Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
281	Environmental Rights Centre for Scotland (ERC)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
282	Federation of City Farms and Community Gardens Scotland (FEL Scotland)	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
283	Get Growing Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
284	Worker Support Centre	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
285	Unite Scotland	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
286	UK Health Alliance on Climate Change	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
287	Social Farms & Gardens	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
288	Global Justice Now	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
289	Scottish Trade Union Congress	(3) Third Sector & advocacy groups	(3d) Community NGOs & advocacy groups
290	Compassion in World Farming (CIWIF)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
291	Community Land Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
292	Nature Friendly Farming Network (NFFN)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
293	Landworkers’ Alliance	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
294	Rare Breeds Survival Trust (RBST) Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
295	Mossgiel Organic Farm	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
296	Association of Independent Crop Consultants	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
297	Basis Registration Ltd (BASIS	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
298	Scottish Quality Crops	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
299	Tenant Farming Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
300	Scottish Dairy Growth Board	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
301	Scottish DairyHub	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
302	Bovine genetics and reproductive services	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
303	The Scottish Dairy Cattle Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
304	Young Farmers	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
305	Scottish Organic Producers Association (SOPA)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
306	National Farmers Union Scotland (NFUS)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
307	The Country Landowners’ Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
308	Scottish Water	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
309	Food, Farming and Countryside Commission (FFCC)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
310	Crown Estate Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
311	Royal Highland and Agricultural Society of Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
312	Agricultural Industries Confederation	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
313	Advanced Plant Growth Centre (James Hutton Institute)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
314	Scottish Agricultural Organisation Society (SAOS)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
315	ADAS	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
316	Agricultural Industries Confederation	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
317	Agricultural Industries Confederation Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
318	Crop Protection Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
319	Linking Environment and Farming (LEAF)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
320	National Farmers Union Scotland (NFUS)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
321	Red Tractor	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
322	Ricardo (Future Farming Resilience Fund)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
323	SRUC/SAC Consulting	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
324	Scottish Land and Estates	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
325	Scottish Rural College	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
326	Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
327	DairyUK	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
328	Farm Quality Assurance Schemes	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
329	Assured Integrated Milk Supplier (AIMS)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
330	Scottish Agricultural Organisation Society	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
331	Organic Soil Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
332	Dourie Farming Company Ltd	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
333	Scottish Land & Estates	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
334	Scottish Gamekeepers’ Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
335	South of Scotland Regional Economic Partnership	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
336	Scottish Crofting Federation	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
337	National Association of Agricultural Contractors	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
338	UK Irrigation Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
339	Scottish Tenant Farmers Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
340	Bank of Scotland Business	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
341	Royal Bank of Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
342	Pasture for Life	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4a) Agricultural organisations
343	Scottish Association of Meat Wholesalers	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
344	Scottish Ecological Design Association (SEDA)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
345	Milk Supply Association (MSA)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
346	Social Enterprise Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
347	Scotland Loves Local Campaign	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
348	Scotland the Bread	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
349	Circular Communities Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
350	Campbells Prime Meat	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
351	Packaging Recycling Group Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
352	Scotch Beef	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
353	Food and Drink Federation Scotland (FDF Scotland)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
354	Scotland Food and Drink	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
355	British Meat Processors’ Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
356	Quality Meat Scotland (QMS)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
357	Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
358	Marine Stewardship Council (MSC)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
359	RSPCA	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
360	Scotch Whisky Association (SWA)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
361	FoodDrinkEurope	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
362	Food and Drink Leadership Forum	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
363	Scotlean	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
364	UNISON Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
365	Scottish Wholesale Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
366	British Contract Manufacturers and Packers Association	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
367	The Packaging Federation	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
368	Scottish Fair Trade Forum	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
369	Resource Management Association Scotland (RMAS)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4b) Food production organisations
370	Consumer Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
371	Bute Produce	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
372	Remake Scotland	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
373	Scottish Grocers’ Federation’s Go Local programme	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
374	European Trade Union Federation of Textiles, Clothing and Leather (leather sector)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
375	Product accreditation (leather sector)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
376	Association of Convenience Stores (ACS)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
377	British Retail Consortium (BRC)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
378	Scottish Retail Consortium	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
379	Global markets (leather sector)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
380	Scottish Grocers’ Federation	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
381	Scottish Trades Union Congress (STUC)	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
382	ASDA Supermarket	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
383	Tesco	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
384	Morrison’s	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
385	Sainsbury’s	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
386	The Refillery Edinburgh	(4) Agriculture & food industry	(4c) Supermarkets and retailers
387	NHS Scotland	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
388	Public Health Scotland	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
389	NHS Borders	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
390	NHS Lothian	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
391	NHS Grampian	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
392	NHS Forth Valley	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
393	Directorate of Health and Social Care	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
394	Ministry of Public Health and Social Care	(5) Public health bodies	(5a) Public health bodies
395	Highlands and Islands Climate Hub	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
396	Fife Communities Climate Action Network (FCCAN)	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
397	North East Scotland Climate Action Resource Hub (NESCAN)	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
398	Transition Black Isle	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
399	Edinburgh Food Social	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
400	Forth Valley Food Futures	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
401	Highland Good Food Partnership	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
402	Climate Hebrides	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
403	Appetite for Angus Food & Drink Network	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
404	Arran’s Food Journey	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
405	Ayrshire Food an’ a that	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
406	Bute Kitchen	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
407	East Lothian Food and Drink	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
408	Eat Drink Hebrides	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
409	Eat SW Scotland	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
410	Food from Argyll	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
411	Food from Fife	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
412	Forth Valley Food and Drink Network	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
413	Great Perthshire	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
414	Lanarkshire Larder	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
415	North East Scotland Food & Drink Network	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
416	Orkney Food and Drink	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
417	A Taste of Shetland	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
418	Glasgow Allotments Forum	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
419	Abundant Borders	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
420	Transition Edinburgh	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
421	Edible Edinburgh	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
422	Transition Stirling	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
423	Moray Food Network	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
424	Falkirk Food Futures	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
425	Dundee Urban Orchard	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
426	Fair Food Aberdeenshire	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
427	Wester Hailes Growing Communities	(6) Community organisations	(6a) Local food networks and sustainability hubs
428	Scottish Rural Action	(6) Community organisations	(6b) Rural community associations
429	Countryside Alliance	(6) Community organisations	(6b) Rural community associations
430	Carbon Brief	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
431	The Grocer	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
432	The Scottish Farmer	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
433	The Scotsman	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
434	The Highland Times	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
435	The National	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
436	Health Food Business Magazine	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
437	Meat Management Magazine	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
438	HealthandCare.Scot	(7) Media & influencers	(7a) Journalists and media outlets
439	Laura Young (‘Less Waste Laura’	(7) Media & influencers	(7b) Influencers & activists
440	Students Organising for Sustainability (SOS-UK)	(8) General public & citizens’ groups	(8a) Vulnerable populations
441	Inclusion Scotland	(8) General public & citizens’ groups	(8a) Vulnerable populations
442	People and Planet	(8) General public & citizens’ groups	(8a) Vulnerable populations
443	The Commitment	(8) General public & citizens’ groups	(8a) Vulnerable populations
444	Scotland’s Regeneration Forum (SURF)	(8) General public & citizens’ groups	(8a) Vulnerable populations
445	Just Fair	(8) General public & citizens’ groups	(8a) Vulnerable populations
446	Poverty Alliance	(8) General public & citizens’ groups	(8a) Vulnerable populations
447	Citizens Advice Scotland	(8) General public and citizen groups	(8b) Consumer rights organisations

Appendix C: Systematic literature review methodology

Two main citation indexes were used to systematically search for articles: Scopus (for published academic literature); and Publish or Perish (for unpublished ‘grey’ literature).

In addition, a set of non-systematically derived articles supplemented the main systematic literature review protocol and more detail can be found below.

For the systematic search protocol, search parameters comprised Title-Abstract-Keyword searches of articles published in English since 2015. Because of the breadth of the topic, no categories were excluded from the search parameters. As Publish or Perish searches Google Scholar records, articles were limited to the first 200 returns by relevance.

The SPICE framework (Booth, 2006) was used to configure the systematic review search string and incorporated the following framework:

Setting: E.g. Scotland’s policy environment and the social, economic, and environmental factors specific to Scotland.
Perspective: E.g. policymakers, public groups, industry stakeholders, and other groups affected by diet and climate policies.
Intervention: E.g. climate-related dietary policy actions, public health initiatives, economic incentives, or educational campaigns.
Comparison: E.g. other regional or international diet and climate policies or scenarios where similar policy interventions are absent.
Evaluation: E.g. outcomes in terms of emissions reductions, public health improvements, economic impacts, or stakeholder engagement effectiveness.

The Title-Abstract-Keyword citation indexes were searched using the following strings, which were adapted during pilot searches because of limitations to search capabilities across each index and to optimise returns:

Scopus: TITLE-ABS-KEY ((“scot*” OR “united kingdom” OR “wales” OR “england” OR “northern ireland”) AND (“diet*” OR “food”) AND (“climate” OR “carbon” OR “emissions” OR “environment*”) AND (“policy*” OR “regulat*” OR “strateg*” OR “lever*” OR “mechanism*”) AND (“behaviour*” OR “percept*” OR “attitud*” OR “consum*” OR “meat” OR “dairy” OR “vegan” OR “vegetarian” OR “plant-based” OR “nutrition” OR “health” OR “wellbeing” OR “equit*” OR “sustainab*” OR “adaptation” OR “mitigation” OR “resilien*” OR “biodiver*” OR “econom*” OR “cost” OR “agricultur*” OR “produc*” OR “process*” OR “retail*” OR “trade*” OR “import*” OR “export*”))

Publish or Perish: scot* AND diet* OR food AND climate OR carbon OR emissions OR environment* AND policy* OR regulat* OR strateg* OR lever OR mechanism* AND behaviour*

Search results from each index were imported into Zotero where duplicates were removed.

Titles/abstracts were screened for eligibility based on the following criteria:

Inclusion criteria:
Publication language English
Published since 2020
Scotland, UK or other devolved policy contexts
Relevant to one or more of the five PESTLE dimensions
Availability of full text by 31/1/25
Exclusion criteria:
Publication language not English
Published before 2020 or focused on policy contexts prior to 2015
Without direct or indirect relevance to Scottish, UK or other devolved policy contexts
Without relevance to at least one of the five PESTLE dimensions
Conference proceedings
Methodological papers and study protocols

Each article was screened and assigned to one of three Zotero folders: Include; Exclude; Unsure. With reference to the latter, at the end of the initial screening these articles were re-examined and re-categorised to the Include or Exclude folder.

The following data were extracted from all included articles:
Article title
Last name of first author
Year of publication
Article URL
Article type (e.g., empirical study, policy document)
Study context and Aims/Objectives
Results:
Key findings
Conclusions
Areas for policy development

In addition to the systematic literature review, relevant articles from a variety of other sources supplemented the review to ensure a comprehensive and contextually relevant analysis. Articles were identified through:

Stakeholder Contributions – During stakeholder one-to-one discussions, participants suggested key reports, policy documents, and research papers that they considered highly relevant to the topic.
Citation Searches – Both forward citation searches (identifying newer papers that cited key sources) and reverse citation searches (reviewing references cited within important papers) were conducted to expand the review.
General Web Searches – Broader searches using Google were performed to capture relevant grey literature, media reports, and other non-peer-reviewed sources that may not be included in academic databases.
Targeted Website Searches – Specific searches were conducted on Scottish Government, NGO, and stakeholder websites to access reports, policy briefings, and unpublished data relevant to the research focus.

Appendix D: Systematic literature review flowchart

Appendix E: Stakeholder meeting methodology

Purpose and Overview:

The one-to-one stakeholder meetings^[10] were conducted to gather qualitative insights into Scotland’s complex diet and climate policy landscape. These conversations were intended to complement the literature review and stakeholder workshops by eliciting the perspectives of individuals with practical experience and policy insight across relevant sectors of Government (supplemented by Third Sector and Academia).

Stakeholder Identification and Selection

Stakeholders were purposively selected based on their relevance to the intersecting themes of diet and climate policy, including specific expertise or engagement in areas such as emissions reduction, food security, policy development and advocacy, rural and environmental science, public health, environmental policy, agriculture, food production, and food insecurity. The selection process drew on:

Expert recommendations from Scottish Government contacts and members of the research steering group.
A stakeholder mapping exercise (see Appendices A and B).

Format and Approach

A total of 14 semi-structured informal online meetings were conducted.
Meetings followed a tailored topic guide to allow flexibility while covering core themes such as governance, policy coherence, barriers to implementation, and perceived gaps in evidence or support.
Discussions typically lasted 30–60 minutes and were designed to be conversational, allowing participants to reflect on both strategic and operational aspects of policy and practice.
Meetings were not recorded, but the researcher took detailed notes throughout.

Ethical Considerations and Data Management

Ethical approval was obtained through the University of Bath.
All participants were provided with information on the project and gave informed verbal consent.

Analytical Use

Insights from the stakeholder meeting notes were synthesised alongside the literature review and workshop outputs. They fed directly into the PESTLE analysis, helping to identify areas for policy development, clarify governance issues, and shape recommendations across the political, economic, social, technological, legal, and environmental dimensions.

Semi-structured meeting protocol

The following questions guided the meetings:

1. Understanding their role and work

Can you tell me about your current role and your team’s focus within the Scottish Government?
Does your work intersect with diet policy in Scotland, and what are the key objectives your team is working towards in this area?

2. Stakeholder relationships and collaboration

Who are the key stakeholders you collaborate with (e.g., other government departments, industry, civil society)?
Are there any stakeholders or groups whose influence or involvement you feel is missing or underrepresented in this policy area?
How would you describe the strength of your collaboration with other key stakeholders? Are there any gaps or challenges in communication or partnership?

3. Policy levers for diet change

What policy levers do you believe are most effective for promoting dietary changes that would both improve public health and reduce environmental impact?
In your view, are there particular dietary behaviours or food systems that should be prioritised for change in order to meet Scotland’s climate and health goals?
What challenges do you see in implementing these policies, either from a political, social, or logistical standpoint?

4. Identifying gaps in existing policy

Do you think there are any gaps in current diet-related policies that hinder progress towards climate goals or healthier diets?
Are there areas where more integration or alignment between climate and health policies could be beneficial?
Where do you see the biggest opportunities for new or improved policies in this space?

5. Future policy directions and needs

What emerging trends or issues do you think will have the biggest influence on future diet, and climate or health policy in Scotland?
In what ways do you think Scottish diet policy could evolve to address both climate change and public health more effectively?

Meeting participants

The following table summarises details of meeting participants

#	Organisation	Policy Area
1	Academia	Diet & Climate
2	Third-Sector (Environment)	Emissions
3	Scottish Government	Food Security
4	Scottish Government	Diet
5	Scottish Government	Policy engagement
6	Scottish Government	Rural and environmental science
7	Academia	Diet policy perceptions
8	UK Government	Diet policy
9	Scottish Government	Health
10	Scottish Government	Environment
11	UK Government	Agriculture & Environment
12	Scottish Government	Food insecurity
13	Third Sector (Health)	Diet & Health
14	Scottish Government	Climate and Diet

Appendix F: Stakeholder workshop protocols

Workshop Purpose

The workshops aimed to explore stakeholder perspectives on Scotland’s diet and climate policy landscape, identify priority issues and gaps, and generate ideas for practical cross-sector solutions. These sessions supported the development of policy-relevant insights through collaborative, activity-based engagement. Stakeholders were identified based on the mapping exercise and consultations with Scottish Government colleagues to identify a range of interests and influence (including Government, third sector organisations, academics, agriculture and food producers, health, community, and environmental groups).

Workshop Formats

Three stakeholder workshops were delivered:

One in-person workshop (full protocol detailed below)
Two online workshops, which followed a shortened format with similar core activities

Time	Activity
10:00–10:30am	Arrival and tea/coffee
10:30–10:40am	Welcome and introduction
10:40–11:15am	Activity 1: Priority Mapping
11:15–11:25am	Break
11:25am–12:30pm	Activity 2: Policy Challenge Brainstorm
12:30–1:15pm	Lunch
1:15–2:00pm	Activity 3: Future Diet Scenarios
2:00–2:10pm	Break
2:10–3:00pm	Activity 4: Prioritisation, Feedback and Closing

In-Person Workshop Structure and Schedule

Time	Activity
10:00–10:15am	Introduction and opening remarks
10:15–11:00am	Activity 1: Priority Mapping
11:00–11:10am	Break
11:10–12:00pm	Activity 2: Policy Challenge Brainstorm
12:00–12:10pm	Break
12:10–12:45pm	Activity 3: Consolidating Priorities and Voting
12:45–1:00pm	Wrap-up and next steps

Online Workshop Structure and Schedule^[11]

Participant Recruitment
Stakeholders were purposively recruited based on a preceding stakeholder mapping exercise. This mapping exercise identified relevant individuals and organisations across key sectors including Scottish Government, public health, agriculture, environment, food industry, third sector, and academia. The rationale for recruitment was guided by the segmentation of stakeholders within the mapping process, ensuring representation across high-interest and high-influence categories, as well as those with complementary or contrasting perspectives. All workshops included a cross-sector mix to support inclusive dialogue and the development of well-rounded policy insights.

Facilitation and Materials
Workshops were facilitated by a research team using a structured agenda and visual/interactive materials. In-person materials included A0 wall charts, colour-coded sticky notes, printed worksheets, and feedback forms. Online workshops used virtual whiteboards, editable templates, and polling tools to replicate similar participatory methods in a digital environment.

Core Activities (all formats)

Activity 1: Priority Mapping
Stakeholders identified sector-specific priorities, areas for policy development, and coordination needs using a structured mapping exercise. These inputs were categorised visually (in-person) or on a shared document (online) and discussed in plenary.
Activity 2: Policy Challenge Brainstorm
Mixed-sector groups tackled pre-defined policy challenges (e.g., reducing meat consumption, supporting farmers, addressing inequalities). Each group identified key barriers and proposed short-term policy solutions, then shared findings with the wider group.
Activity 3: Prioritisation and Feedback
Stakeholders reviewed the workshop’s emerging priorities and selected the most important using voting dots (in-person) or virtual polling (online). This was followed by group discussion and final reflections.

Additional In-Person Activity

Future Diet Scenarios
Small groups considered hypothetical future policy scenarios for 2040 (e.g., localisation of food systems, technological innovation, policy-led dietary shifts). Discussions explored sector-specific impacts, challenges, opportunities, and future policy needs.

Data Collection and Follow-Up

Participant contributions were captured via workshop artefacts (e.g., sticky notes, templates, whiteboards), discussion summaries, and anonymised feedback forms. An optional follow-up survey was distributed by email. Thematic analysis of all outputs informed policy insights and recommendations.

To support co-production and refine the emerging findings, we incorporated iteration loops for feedback. Formative workshop outputs were shared with participants and relevant stakeholders following the sessions, and feedback was actively invited to validate interpretations, identify omissions, and strengthen final conclusions.

Participating stakeholders

Workshop	Format	Stakeholders
1	In-person	Food Standards Scotland.
		Nourish Scotland
		Public Health Scotland
		Soil Association Scotland
		Nature Friendly Farming Network
		Rowett Institute, University of Aberdeen.
		University of Edinburgh
		Scottish Government (Tobacco, Gambling, Diet and Healthy Weight Unit).
		Scottish Government (Policy)
		CoDeL/Scottish Rural Action
		Glasgow Allotments Forum
3^[12]	Online	Climate Change Committee
		Quality Meat Scotland
		Scottish Tenant Farmers’ Association
		Scottish Government (Diet Policy)
		University of Edinburgh
		Four Paws UK
4	Online	Scottish Food Commission
		Scottish Crofting Federation
		Public Health Scotland
		Scottish Communities Climate Action Network
		Eating Better
		CLIMAVORE CIC
		Abundant Borders

Appendix G: Extended Political analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Key theme	Area For Policy Development
1. Governance and Structural Issues in Food Policy Coordination
Establish a coordinated and coherent food policy framework	Food policies operate in silos, with opportunities to strengthen cross-sectoral collaboration. Informal policy structures can limit transparency and efficiency.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Effective policy implementation requires cross-departmental collaboration and a holistic approach, addressing both supply and demand aspects of the food system. Currently, policies in Scotland are fragmented, with limited integration across health, agriculture, and environmental sectors. (Tregear, Morgan, Spence et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Fragmented governance across Government divisions, leading to disjointed approaches to diet, climate, and health policies (Stakeholder Meeting 3).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Greater cross ministry coordination between environment, net zero, health and housing needed to all recognise the link between industrial livestock production and emissions.” (Workshop 4).
Align food policy with national climate targets	Food system policies should better align with net-zero targets by integrating climate action and dietary change into Scotland’s Good Food Nation objectives.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Integrating national food strategies with climate change mitigation is crucial. Highlight Scotland’s leadership in establishing sustainable food policies aligned with net-zero. (Boyle, Jenneson, Okeke-Ogbuafor et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	The focus on reducing meat and dairy emissions creates political sensitivities, with sustainable diets seen as contentious. (Stakeholder Meeting 14).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Within Scottish Government: Make climate & diet part of a Good Food Nation objective. Include dietary change as one of Scotland’s climate goals. Work for better join up across policy areas, work against narrowness. Make this a priority for multiple departments.” (Workshop 4).
Promote long-term, systemic approaches in food policy	Short-term political cycles and reactive policymaking impact long-term food system transformation.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Short term thinking- panic politics! Prevents reliable engagement and constant churn Just in time production and unequal power balance between food producers, wholesalers, and retailers Framework contracts for catering are constantly tightened while tied into commercial” (Workshop 1).
Enhance strategic leadership to drive dietary change	A clearer strategic vision could support sustainable dietary change. Industry influence (e.g., food advertising) shapes food choices, and Government could play a stronger role.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	A lack of visible, strategic political leadership to unify and implement health, environment, and food equity changes was highlighted as a major deficit. (Food Farming & Countryside Commission, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Absence of formal leadership and cross-departmental coordination, leading to fragmented efforts (Stakeholder Meeting 14).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“A lack of political will and leadership from politicians and the leaders of the wider food movement to take on the opportunities of dietary change, with an over-reliance on the free market to fix food.” (Workshop 1).
Develop and implement a comprehensive national food strategy	A more holistic, integrated and strategic approach to food and diet across climate, health, and agriculture would strengthen policy coherence.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Food system governance in the UK is multi-layered, involving numerous regulatory bodies and policies across sectors. This fragmentation complicates efforts to address system-wide issues like environmental sustainability and public health (Hasnain, Green, Williams et al., 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Misalignment between climate, health, and food policies. Current policy frameworks lack coherence, creating conflicting objectives (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“There is a tendency to think about different aspects of food systems links to health, missing thinking about the totality of the links between food and health- through benefits of health from employment, improved air quality, reduced pollution, better nutrition, visibility and access to green spaces, encouragement of physical activity etc. understanding food system the complexities and feedback loops of a complex system ( also consideration of impact of climate change effects locally and globally on food security).” (Workshop 1).
Improve alignment of food policy across governance levels	Ensuring national and local policies work in tandem would improve implementation and outcomes.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	National food policies tend to prioritise large-scale, industrial supply chains, often at the expense of supporting local and regional food systems. This emphasis can marginalise smaller producers, reduce community resilience, and limit opportunities for sustainable, place-based approaches to food production and distribution. Strengthening policy support for local food networks could enhance food security, shorten supply chains, and contribute to environmental and public health goals. (Witheridge & Morris, 2016).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Local & national level joining up of food policies.” (Workshop 3).
Strengthen policy coherence between national and local food initiatives	National dietary targets could better account for local food sovereignty and self-sufficiency, ensuring global dietary goals align with Scotland’s food systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Insufficient consideration of how global dietary targets may intersect with local food sovereignty and autonomy. (EAT, n.d.).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Define clear and measurable targets under the Good Food Nation Act	Establishing measurable goals for emissions, biodiversity, and dietary shifts would provide greater long-term direction.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	No specific targets or indicators. The Act does not set clear, measurable targets for emissions reduction, biodiversity conservation, or dietary shifts. Leaves flexibility to future governments, which may slow progress. (Brennan, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
2. Just Transition and Resilient Food Systems
Ensure a just transition in the food system	Stronger policy support is needed to help farmers, food workers, and consumers transition to sustainable practices while ensuring fairness and inclusivity.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Weak link between food production and Just Transition principles. The document emphasises a Just Transition for farmers and crofters but does not sufficiently address how food system workers, small-scale producers, and consumers will be supported in adapting to more sustainable food systems. (Scottish Government, 2022b).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Just transition.” (Workshop 1).
Align public procurement with sustainability and dietary targets	Align procurement policies with environmental and dietary goals across public institutions (e.g. schools, hospitals). Improve coordination between health boards and local authorities. Strengthen oversight and accountability to ensure sustainability outcomes.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Public Sector Procurement Oversight. The document does not discuss whether public sector food procurement (e.g., schools, hospitals, government catering) will align with these dietary goals. A mandatory framework for institutional food policies (e.g., requiring plant-forward meals in public settings) is missing. (Scottish Government, 2013).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Public procurement policies have untapped potential to support local, sustainable food systems while stimulating the green economy. (Stakeholder Meeting 8).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“There is a gap in current public procurement accessing enough sustainable products.” (Workshop 1).
Strengthen resilience in food supply chains	Increased investment in infrastructure, including capital support and processing facilities, would improve food system resilience.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	No Specific Strategy for Food System Resilience. The Act does not address supply chain vulnerabilities (e.g., extreme weather events, trade disruptions). (Brennan, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Supply chains-capital support-processing.” (Workshop 3).
Enhance policy support for local and regional food systems	Policies could better integrate local food production into supply chains, enhancing resilience to global disruptions. Small-scale initiatives play a key role but require stronger policy backing. Strengthening regional coordination between producers, supply chains, and consumers, especially in remote areas, could enhance resilience and sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Barriers to Local Food Growth: Access to land for community growing remains an issue despite policies like the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015. Infrastructure gaps: Rural and island areas face transport and distribution challenges, making it harder to get food to markets. (Scottish Government, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“There is a gap of a localised/regional joined up application of sustainable food systems encompassing primary food production, supply chain and consumer. Scottish islands and some other areas around Scotland’s coast are very vulnerable to e.g. food access and affordability. Applying a bespoke sustainable food system would tick a lot of boxes and offer research opportunities and questions still to be asked.” (Workshop 3).
Invest in infrastructure for sustainable and local meat processing	Expanding access to slaughter facilities, particularly in remote areas, would support local farmers and streamline processing.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Processing capacity is limited: Lack of small abattoirs and local processing facilities hinders small farmers from scaling up. Scottish Government, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Need to support slaughterhouses due to lack of availability for farmers, especially in remote areas, and issues with accessing facilities, especially on the West Coast. Having slaughter hubs rather than individuals accessing/identifying farms (do paperwork before lorries enter premises.” (Workshop 3).
Develop a food systems approach tailored to Scotland’s context	Policies should reflect Scotland’s unique rural and cultural contexts, including land-use trade-offs and food traditions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Advocates for transforming the UK food system using a systems-based approach to address interconnected challenges such as unhealthy diets, environmental degradation, and food system inefficiencies. However, it is UK-wide and lacks Scotland-specific insights, such as its distinct agricultural systems (e.g., crofting) or cultural preferences in food. Fails to account for Scotland’s devolved responsibilities in areas like agriculture and environment, which require more tailored solutions. (Bhunnoo, & Poppy, 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Address urban-rural inequities in food security and access	A more integrated approach is needed to address food security challenges in urban areas while supporting rural agricultural priorities.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Urban-Rural Divide: Highlights Scotland’s diversity in land use but does not fully address the challenges of urban food security in comparison to rural production priorities. (Gill, Fowler & Scott, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Advance implementation of the 10-minute neighbourhood model	Improve planning and spatial access. Connecting communities with local producers and using technology to improve food accessibility could support stronger local food systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Exploratory study on the feasibility of 10-minute neighbourhoods in Edinburgh, noting that food accessibility is a key factor in their successful implementation. The research suggests utilising technology (such as online food hubs and delivery platforms) to connect consumers with local producers. (van der Horst, Lane, Creasy et al., 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“10 minute neighbourhood-bringing the local food system to see where it’s needed and linking it to local producers. Creating greater closeness to system Opportunities for technologies to help with that.” (Workshop 1).
Integrate urban agriculture into food policy and planning	Urban agriculture could play a greater role in production methods supporting plant-based diets and lowering carbon footprints.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Analysis of the climate impact of food consumed in Scotland, identifying urban agriculture as a crucial strategy for lowering carbon emissions and promoting plant-based diets. The research suggests that increasing urban food production can offset some of Scotland’s imported food emissions, which currently contribute significantly to the nation’s carbon footprint. (Jaacks, Frank, Vonderschmidt et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Develop a national strategy for climate-compatible red meat supply	A clearer plan is needed to ensure red meat supply security amid potential future shortages.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Impact of labour shortages on food availability and safety in the UK, with a focus on Scotland’s red meat sector. The study finds that geographical challenges and post-Brexit labour shortages increase supply risks. The paper calls for contingency planning in Scotland’s red meat processing sector to ensure long-term supply security. McAreavey, Choudhary, Obayi et al., (2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
3. Aligning Food Policy with Climate, Health, and Nutrition Goals
Align production and consumption policies for a sustainable food system	Current policies emphasise food production over dietary behaviour, missing opportunities to address both sustainability and consumer choices.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Food supply chain sustainability is prioritized over dietary sustainability in Scottish policy discussions. They advocate for more emphasis on consumer choices, food accessibility, and reducing food waste. (Leat, Revoredo-Giha, & Lamprinopoulou, 2011).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Production vs. diet change focus: Policy emphasis on production over dietary behaviour misses opportunities for integrated approaches. (Stakeholder Meeting 6).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Strengthen national nutrition strategies to support dietary change	Policies lack structured plans for ensuring nutritional adequacy in plant-based diets, including fortification of alternatives to meat and dairy.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The report points out that many plant-based alternatives lack fortification with essential nutrients like calcium, vitamin B12, and iodine, identifying a gap in nutritional standards for these substitutes. Comrie, Wilson, Nneli, et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Poor health outcomes and dietary patterns in Scotland may worsen if red meat reduction strategies do not account for suitable nutritional replacements. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Establish clear and measurable targets for reducing meat consumption	No official population targets exist for reducing meat consumption (e.g., 20% by 2030), limiting policy integration with sustainability and health goals.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Discussion of future food policy challenges in Scotland, emphasizing that the country still does not have official set targets for reducing red meat consumption. The study suggests that integrating dietary changes into net-zero policies could improve policy coherence and sustainability outcomes. Lambe, Weitz, Hilgert, et al., (2025).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Absence of government policy: Scottish Government doesn’t currently aim to reduce meat by 20% by 2030. Government has cross-cutting national food policy and food plans, but this goal isn’t embedded within these plans. A big missed opportunity – perhaps because diets are perceived as too personal”. (Workshop 4).
Integrate methane reduction measures into food and agricultural policy	There are no specific methane reduction targets for livestock, creating gaps in investment and emission mitigation strategies. Policies could balance methane reduction with food security and rural livelihoods.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Setting clear methane reduction targets Scotland currently lacks a specific methane reduction target for livestock, unlike New Zealand, which aims for a 10% reduction by 2030 and 24-47% by 2050. A formal methane target could drive investment and farmer participation. (Jenkins, Herold, de Mendonça et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Develop policies to reduce emissions across the entire food supply chain	Greater attention is needed on emissions from food transportation and storage, with investment in supply chain infrastructure.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Highlights the need for investment in Scotland’s supply chain infrastructure to reduce emissions from food transportation and storage. The study suggests that targeted investments in cold chain logistics and sustainable transport can significantly lower carbon footprints in the Scottish food system. Pultar & Ferrier, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	The industry favours low-volume, high-value, resource-intensive convenience foods, and inefficient transportation, reducing sustainability. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Bridge gaps between diet-related and public health policy frameworks	Policies could better integrate dietary guidance with efforts to reduce health inequalities and poverty.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Poor diet as both a cause and consequence of poverty in Scotland, stressing the need for more proactive policy interventions to integrate nutritional guidance with poverty reduction strategies. Hunt, Pettinger & Wagstaff, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	There remains a disconnect between health inequality and poverty-related dietary issues, highlighting the need for more nuanced and targeted policy interventions. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Update dietary guidance to reflect both health and climate priorities	While CCC carbon budgets support the transition to more sustainable and healthier diets in Scotland, they often lack specific guidance on reducing consumption of high-emission foods such as red and processed meats.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	A scenario-based approach to emissions reduction targets in Scottish agriculture emphasises that dietary changes could significantly contribute to emissions reductions, but Scotland lacks specific food-related emissions policies targeting red and processed meats. Eory, Topp, Rees et al., 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Diet is about balance (rather than individual products being high/low) Climate impact.” (Workshop 1).
Embed animal welfare considerations within public health and food policy	Animal welfare could be recognised within a sustainable welfare framework, linking it to zoonotic disease risks and food system sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Examines Scotland’s Good Food Nation Act, noting that animal welfare policies remain part of a fragmented approach to food system policy. The study suggests that food policy should explicitly include welfare considerations. (Brennan, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Animal welfare currently considered an ethical issue but not a priority issue vs public health. Lack of connectedness between One Health / One Welfare approach to food and farming systems and the associated zoonotic risk and prevalent emergence from intensive systems e.g. swine flu, bird flu.” (Workshop 4).
4. Economic and Political Barriers to Food System Change
Develop targeted policies and interventions for high meat consumers	Current policies do not sufficiently target high meat consumers or sub-groups, limiting effectiveness in driving dietary change. There is no clear government policy to encourage or incentivise reduced red and processed meat consumption, and existing strategies lack structured approaches to ensuring nutrient adequacy in plant-based alternatives.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Study indicates that if high consumers of red and processed meat (>70g/day) reduced their intake to the Scottish Dietary Goal (70g/day), a 16% reduction in total meat consumption would be achieved. This targeted reduction approach could help lower colorectal cancer risks, BMI, cardiovascular disease, and Type 2 diabetes cases. Policy Gap: There is no clear government policy specifically encouraging or incentivizing reductions among high meat consumers, such as: Public health campaigns targeting high meat eaters. Incentives for shifting to plant-based or lower-meat diets. Differentiated policies for groups at higher health risk from high meat consumption. (Food Standards Scotland (FSS), 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	There are tensions surrounding blanket meat reduction policies, with a focus on targeting high consumers of meat to achieve incremental emissions reductions being seen as more effective. (Stakeholder Meeting 9).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Lack of tailored approach targeting red meat over-consumers in Scotland.” (Workshop 1).
Shape future dietary patterns through integrated policy and public engagement	Without stronger Government intervention, major food manufacturers and retailers may dominate with unhealthy and unsustainable options. Policies do not directly address the reduction of ultra-processed foods linked to poor health and environmental harm.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Climate-focused food-based dietary guidelines in other countries advocate for reduced consumption of UPFs due to their high environmental impact. The Scottish dietary guidelines do not yet emphasise avoiding these foods to the same degree, which could be an area for development (Tregear, Morgan, Spence et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Absence of formal leadership and cross-departmental coordination, leading to fragmented efforts. (Stakeholder Meeting 3).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Bear in mind that diets are changing – the status quo will drive a worsening of diets. If government are absent, then big food industry players will fill the vacuum with unhealthy / unsustainable food.” (Workshop 4).
Support the development of the plant-based food sector	Business opportunities for plant-based products could be strengthened by ensuring consistency in agricultural and horticultural policies.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	need to review possible solutions that will replace and improve on the Common Agricultural Policy, in terms of environmental goods for both the industry and wider society. They recommend stabilising policy incentives to ensure better support for sustainable food production. (Lampkin, Shrestha, Sellars et al., 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Support for the market that focuses on plant-based food – to drive business opportunities. Government consistency on the Agricultural and Horticultural Development board (industry advocacy?) – DEFRA co-ordinated.” (Workshop 3).
Build the economic case for food system transformation	The financial unsustainability of the current food system remains under-examined as a driver for policy change, with climate and health arguments alone proving insufficient.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Highlights ways Scotland can reform its food economy to become more self-sufficient and resilient. It offers insights into where investments and support may be needed to enhance domestic pro‑ duction and promote a resilient and sustainable food system Their study suggests that policy shifts should prioritize local food production and reduce reliance on imports. (Rathnayaka, Revoredo-Giha & de Roos, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Health economics view on the cost of our current dysfunction! Can we convince people by showing them that it’s not financially feasible to continue as we are (whether at local authority or national level) where just climate or health outcomes have perhaps not convinced.” (Workshop 4).
Balance regulation with industry compliance and capacity to adapt	Reliance on voluntary industry commitments rather than enforceable regulations limits the effectiveness of climate and food system policies.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Inadequate Governance: Few policies include clear accountability structures or measurable goals for implementation and evaluation. Many approaches rely on voluntary industry compliance, reflecting neoliberal frameworks that prioritise individual responsibility over systemic change. (Lee, Cullerton & Herron, 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Strong lobbying from agricultural and rural stakeholders affects policy decisions on livestock emissions. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Manage post-Brexit trade policy to protect food standards and sustainability	Policy challenges arise from post-Brexit trade disruptions and economic uncertainties, requiring stronger food system resilience.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Discusses how Brexit has disrupted food governance in Scotland, leading to policy uncertainty in sustainable agriculture and food security. They highlight that Scotland needs a more independent policy framework to maintain sustainability goals post-Brexit. (Attorp & Hubbard, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Balancing trade tensions, concerns as a fallout from e.g., Brexit.” (Workshop 1).
5. The Role of Technology, Trade, and Environmental Considerations in Food Policy
Strengthen regulation and oversight of intensive agricultural practices	A clearer policy framework is needed to address the environmental and animal welfare impacts of intensive farming.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Argues that Scotland’s reliance on intensive farming practices negatively impacts biodiversity, soil health, and emissions. The report recommends strengthening agricultural policies to incorporate nature-based solutions and reduce chemical dependency in intensive farming. (Brodie, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Scottish Government policies must be more joined up with a clear goal to reduce the amount of meat and dairy produced in industrial farming systems.” (Workshop 1).
Reevaluate the role of food miles in sustainability metrics	The contribution of food miles to total emissions is often overstated, highlighting the need for a more holistic sustainability discussion.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Analysis of the impact of food miles and carbon footprint, showing that overemphasizing local production can exaggerate its sustainability benefits while ignoring production efficiency and food system integration. (Vittersø, Torjusen, Laitala et al., 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Food miles as an unhelpful concept due to its disproportionately small impact (equal to or less than 5% of total emissions).” (Workshop 1).
Assess the environmental and social sustainability of emerging food technologies	Emerging production methods (e.g., vertical farming) require evaluation of energy use, labour, and environmental impact to ensure long-term sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Analyses energy use, labour demand, and environmental sustainability in Scottish vertical farming. They highlight high energy costs due to artificial lighting and climate control but note potential labour efficiency gains. (Briggs, Tallontire & Dougill, 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Vertical farms/greenhouse tomatoes- what are environmental impacts of production? Depends on production methods-and extent to which energy and labour is required.” (Workshop 1).
Leverage product reformulation to support health and sustainability	Reformulating processed food products over time can reduce environmental impacts and improve health.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Analyses the potential of reducing processed meat in Scottish food systems through reformulation strategies. They highlight environmental benefits, including lower greenhouse gas emissions, and health co-benefits. (Spiro, Hill, & Stanner, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Incremental reformulation of processed food products can contribute to sustainability goals by reducing resource use and environmental impacts over time. (Stakeholder Meeting 14).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Encourage reformulation of processed foods and move consumers towards wholefoods.” (Workshop 1).
Fully integrate environmental sustainability into economic frameworks for food policy	Economic and social considerations often take precedence over environmental sustainability in food, agriculture, and public health strategies. Greater policy focus is needed on agroecology to support low-input farming models.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Lack of Integration into Agricultural Policy: Scotland’s agricultural subsidies still favour high-input conventional farming, with no clear financial support for agroecology. No explicit policy targets for agroecology within Scotland’s Land Use Strategy or Climate Action Plan. (Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
6. Evidence, Modelling, and Policy Implementation Issues
Enhance coherence across food-related policies and strategies	Stronger integration of research evidence and interlinked policy areas is needed to improve decision-making and coordination across food systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Need for coordinated, holistic policy approaches: The report notes that effective policy implementation requires cross-departmental collaboration and a holistic approach, addressing both supply and demand aspects of the food system. Currently, policies in Scotland are fragmented, with limited integration across health, agriculture, and environmental sectors. (Tregear, Morgan, Spence et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Limited use of evidence in policymaking (Stakeholder Meeting 8).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Bureaucracy-Business/Retail/Economics tape etc causing delays from evidence to policy.” (Workshop 3).
Improve modelling of food systems and emissions pathways	Existing models do not fully capture the link between livestock production, dietary change, and emissions, leading to flawed policy assumptions. More precise emissions accounting is needed, recognising farming’s role in carbon sequestration.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Argues that current emissions models oversimplify the role of livestock production by not accounting for regional variations, land-use differences, and dietary shifts. They claim policy assumptions based on these models often lead to misleading conclusions about sustainable diets and livestock impact. (Houzer & Scoones, 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Always use net not gross emissions when modelling the environmental impact of meat. Farming is one of the few industries that sequesters carbon.“ (Workshop 1).
Strengthen the role of evidence in food policy development	Policymakers sometimes prioritise political feasibility over scientific recommendations, limiting evidence-based dietary policy development.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Policymakers sometimes lack awareness of dietary evidence or prioritise political feasibility over scientific recommendations. (Stakeholder Meeting 10).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Knowledge-evidence-people.” (Workshop 1).
Identify and address barriers to effective policy implementation	Regulatory and economic constraints slow the translation of research into policy action, affecting food business and retail sector participation.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Bureaucracy-Business/Retail/Economics tape etc causing delays from evidence to policy.” (Workshop 1).
Boost research and innovation support for sustainable food systems	Greater investment in sustainable food technology research and industry collaboration is needed to support emissions reduction, dietary shifts, and agricultural innovation.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Scotland must enhance investment in food research and technology to support the shift toward sustainable diets. The study emphasises integrating food technology research with industry-led sustainability initiatives. Bellamy, Furness, Mills et al., 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	There is limited emphasis on emerging technologies such as precision agriculture, alternative proteins, and sustainable farming practices, which could significantly reduce environmental impacts. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Industry Research- small scale workshops and population interventions.” (Workshop 4).
Shift policy focus from food supply to average consumption patterns	Policies based on average meat consumption may overlook disparities in consumption patterns across different population groups.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Examines variations in meat consumption patterns across different socioeconomic groups in Scotland. The study finds that lower-income groups have limited access to plant-based alternatives, which affects dietary shifts. Policies addressing sustainability should consider economic disparities in meat consumption trends. (McBey, McCormick, & Hussain, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Current policies tend to focus on average consumption metrics, which may not adequately address disparities in meat consumption patterns. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Improve data collection and metrics for agroecological practices	The lack of monitoring on agricultural practices limits the development of evidence-based policies supporting agroecological change.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Highlights gaps in monitoring agroecological practices in Scotland, particularly in assessing improving rural livelihoods through social and economic outcomes (as well as environmental outcomes). The study calls for better data collection and policy support to enhance agroecological implementation. (Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Lack of data. Need to look at what is the actual impact of farming on climate in Scotland – what are the negatives we currently have and then learning from best practise to bring others on that journey. using real Scottish data to drive change. it should go wider than GHGs. it’s about biodiversity, habitat and plant protection and ecosystem, water use and flood management, soil quality, animal welfare etc. baselining standards – over 170 farms there are some that are already at net zero, or close.” (Workshop 3).
Address knowledge gaps in red meat production and consumption	Policy must better account for the diversity in red meat production systems and improve public understanding of meat reduction strategies.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Taking a nuanced approach to what has been called “red meat production” here: a farm with 1000 cattle fed on supplements and held indoors is not the same as a croft, a micro diary, or an integrated agroforestry system with 20 cows. Whilst some forms of red meat production will perfectly align with climate and nature restoration targets and score high on all these elements others will not.” (Workshop 3).
Understand and overcome barriers to reducing meat consumption	Research is needed to identify the challenges consumers face when shifting away from meat consumption.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Barriers included food neophobia, identity incongruence, habitual behaviour and practical difficulties. Strategies should focus on meat reduction, not exclusion, as completely removing meat from the diet was unpopular. As barriers and drivers differed with stage, we call for specialized campaigns. Consumers not intending to reduce meat intake could potentially be persuaded by climate awareness campaigns, and by promotion of small adaptations to familiar meals. Consumers intending to reduce meat intake may be prompted to do so by health awareness campaigns, changes to the choice architecture and increased availability of meatless meals. (Hielkema & Lund, 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Research on why meat consumption changes are so hard for consumers.” (Workshop 3).
Strengthen understanding of local food yields and market potential	Addressing the lack of data on community food production, informal markets, and small-scale retail contributions is necessary for better policy decisions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“What do we know about yield from community production versus supermarkets? Western Isles (Eriskay; Berneray) has 3 Co-ops and 5 independents- egg sales likely down because of local informal markets.” (Workshop 1).
Integrate food culture and heritage into policy design and evaluation	More effective ways to measure and incorporate food culture into policy are needed, as current frameworks lack clear metrics.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Food culture not a “SMART” target. These concepts aren’t measurable and risk being overlooked by more measurable items.” (Workshop 1).
Embed climate and sustainability audits into food policy frameworks	A stronger link between climate impact assessments and food taxation policies could improve sustainability outcomes.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Climate audit based on production; food tax-importing food from other countries.” (Workshop 1).
Scale up support for agricultural innovation at farm and system levels	A clearer strategy for financing and scaling precision and regenerative farming would accelerate climate-smart practices.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	No clear mechanism for scaling up climate-smart technologies. The text highlights the importance of innovation (e.g., precision farming, regenerative agriculture) but lacks detail on: How new technologies will be funded and adopted at scale. Which technologies will be prioritized for investment. How knowledge transfer will be ensured across different farm sizes and regions. Policy Gap: The government lacks a clear investment and implementation strategy for scaling up climate-smart agriculture technologies. Policy Need: Establish a national climate-smart agriculture fund and technology adoption grants for farmers. (Scottish Government, n.d.a).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
7. Policy resistance and political sensitivities
Develop strategies to manage resistance to livestock reduction policies	Ministers and industry stakeholders resist policies targeting livestock reduction due to economic concerns and public sensitivities. Addressing political tensions and developing strategies to gain support for dietary shifts remains a challenge.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Ministers and stakeholders resist policies due to economic concerns and public sensitivity. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Red meat industry is one of the most profitable industries in Scotland-tensions, how do we sell this to Government to implement?” (Workshop 1).
Political reluctance to introduce directive diet policy regulations	Concerns about public acceptability have made policymakers cautious about introducing more directive dietary regulations.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Political reluctance to enforce “Nanny-State” (sic) measures. Concerns over public backlash make policymakers hesitant to impose strict dietary regulations (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Strengthen policy framing to improve public and stakeholder acceptance	The way policies are framed affects public and political acceptance, with resistance often tied to perceived losses.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Discusses meat reduction policy framing more generally. Fewer than half this UK-representative sample supported meat reduction policies. Framing measures as benefitting health vs. the environment did not change support. Policies targeting meat were less supported than policies targeting unhealthy food. Many respondents had no decided views about the acceptability of policies on meat. (Pechey, Reynolds, Cook et al., 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Gains vs. losses framing influences policy acceptance: How policies are framed influences their acceptance, with resistance often linked to perceived losses. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Ensure fairness and equity in dietary policy design	Universal approaches may not account for cultural and socioeconomic diversity. Gradual adjustments to the food environment may ease resistance.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	There are tensions surrounding blanket meat reduction policies, with a focus on targeting high consumers of meat to achieve incremental emissions reductions being seen as more effective. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Not a blanket approach-gradually edit the food environment.” (Workshop 1).
Create integrated policies linking agriculture, public health, and emissions reduction	Farmers may view their primary role as focused on food production, creating resistance to dietary and environmental policies. Stronger integration between agriculture, health, and climate policy is needed.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Farmers often do not consider public health issues within their scope, influencing resistance to health-driven dietary policies. (Stakeholder Meeting 9).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Linking farmers and public health bodies e.g., local authorities.” (Workshop 4).
Address ideological resistance to reducing red and processed meat consumption	Deep-rooted cultural norms and traditions contribute to differing perspectives on dietary change, particularly in rural communities.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Cultural reluctance to consume plant-based foods and reduce meat consumption will slow progress and likely negatively feedback to changes in the food environment. There are positive findings as well, the increased declared willingness to change and the recent uptick in media coverage suggest that the transition to sustainable diets could accelerate, but whether it will happen in time will be a matter of enhanced interaction between policymakers, the media, and public. (Cleland, McBey, Darlene et al., 2025).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Strong cultural attachments to traditional diets, particularly in rural communities, create barriers to dietary change. (Stakeholder Meeting 9).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Overcome cultural and historical barriers to agricultural transition	Farming is deeply embedded in Scottish identity, with many farmers viewing themselves as stewards of the land. Historical events such as the Highland Clearances continue to shape land use patterns and influence perceptions of food and farming policy today
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Explores how animal agriculture (salmon farming) is deeply embedded in Scottish cultural identity, emphasising its historical, economic, and symbolic significance. (Rubio Ramon, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Farming is deeply embedded in cultural identity, often viewed as a birthright. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Resolve conflicts between climate policy and current farming priorities	Farmers primarily focus on food production and traditional practices, often leading to conflicts with environmental policies aimed at sustainability and emissions reduction.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Farmer attitudes towards sustainable farming actions in rural Wales: Key barriers included time and cost to implement sustainable farming actions, availability of long-term financial valuation for ecosystem services, occurrence of extreme weather events, and presence of tenanted land. (Follett, Davis, Wilson et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	There is an ongoing tension between environmental policies focused on sustainability and emissions reduction, and farmers’ primary focus on food production and maintaining traditional agricultural practices. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Address the practical and political challenges of fiscal measures (e.g., taxes, payments)	Discussions on taxation policies, such as a red meat tax, remain controversial due to concerns over fairness, public acceptability, and potential economic impacts on vulnerable populations.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Discussions around implementing fiscal measures, such as a red meat tax, have emerged as potential levers for influencing dietary change. While some fiscal levers, such as taxes on red meat, are being debated, their design requires careful attention to fairness, public acceptability, and economic implications. (Stakeholder Meeting 5).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Unpopularity of taxes on any foods.” (Workshop 1).
Embrace and integrate diverse stakeholder perspectives in policy development	Scottish Government and policymakers should engage constructively with disagreement and differing evidence bases among stakeholders.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Conveners (e.g. Scottish Government) need to get more comfortable with disagreement, different evidence bases among stakeholders.” (Workshop 4).
8: Public involvement in sustainable food policy
Strengthen citizen engagement in food policy development	Public consultation mechanisms, including in the Good Food Nation (Scotland) Act, provide limited opportunities for meaningful citizen participation beyond advisory input, particularly among younger people. Existing public engagement structures in food and farming policy are weak, reducing community influence in decision-making.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Limited youth inclusion in policy discussions: Limited institutional mechanisms exist to incorporate youth perspectives into food and climate policy discussions, despite high climate awareness among younger populations. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Enhance local empowerment and participation in food system governance	Addressing the disconnect between policy and practice by streamlining local empowerment mechanisms, improving access to timely funding, and learning from crofting practices to support sustainable food systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Disconnect between areas and policy – big issue. The mechanism to provide the leavers for local empowerment is tedious and complicated. Must be simplified and shortened in terms of time. Need access to funding straight away when opportunities arise. This would avoid silos and increase connectivity e.g. land reform policy. Need community to take on land and community need funding to do so. There is something about learning from crofting practices in the context of a sustainable food system. Some challenges are related to the free market and the crofting regulation, the right to buy and the lack of regulation.” (Workshop 4).
9. Scotland in the global policy landscape
Incorporate global best practices into Scottish food policy	Further examining successful international policies could offer valuable insights for Scotland’s approach to meat reduction and sustainable diets.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Analysis of successful policies aimed at reducing meat consumption in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, and the UK. Key findings: Meat taxes and subsidy removals were effective in reducing meat consumption without major public resistance. Public acceptability increased when revenues from meat taxes were reinvested into sustainable food systems. Combining fiscal measures with consumer awareness campaigns led to more effective dietary shifts. (Kmetkova, Zverinova, Scasny et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–

Appendix H: Extended Economic analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Key Theme	Area For Policy Development
1: Financial Incentives and Risk Mitigation for Sustainable Food Production
Strengthen financial incentives for low-carbon food production	Policies lack regulatory and financial mechanisms to support low-carbon food production, scale up innovative technologies, and integrate climate adaptation strategies. Current financial support favours emissions-intensive farming, and financial relief programs for extreme weather risks are absent.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	No explicit agroecology support in agricultural payments The Scottish farm payment system does not prioritise agroecological transitions. Unlike the EU’s Farm-to-Fork Strategy, Scotland lacks clear pesticide reduction, soil health improvement, or biodiversity restoration targets linked to financial incentives. (Lozada, & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Not regenerative food production happening. Take Edinburgh – there is Lauriston community farm – a 100acre site. It would take 200 of these farms to produce enough food for population of Edinburgh…Identify key sites for more food production and increase awareness of the risks to our food sector. Increase resources put towards the issue.” (Workshop 1).
Compensate farmers for delivering ecosystem services	Financial incentives for biodiversity and climate protection remain underdeveloped, limiting green investment and market development.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Examines how financial incentives for biodiversity and climate protection in Scotland remain inadequate, limiting farmer participation in sustainability initiatives. Financial incentives under the CAP have been insufficient to encourage widespread adoption of biodiversity-supporting measures. Farmers prioritize economic viability over environmental incentives, leading to low engagement in voluntary sustainability schemes. Scotland lags behind other EU countries, such as Austria and the Netherlands, in providing effective support and financial rewards for climate-friendly farming. (Brown, Kovacs, Zinngrebe et al, 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Need to pay producers and farmers for the non-food products they produce – no financial incentive to help protect biodiversity and climate. does seem to be demand for this, biodiversity net gain, or green investment the financial model doesn’t work yet for woodland carbon code is not accessible for commercial projects anymore there was a boom for carbon measure bio net gain, but no longer, markets have not developed yet certainly in Scotland.” (Workshop 3).
Scale up the use of alternative proteins in animal feed	Microbial proteins, insect- and hemp-based animal feeds lack commercial scaling support, restricting their ability to replace imported soy and improve sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Limited support for scaling alternative protein animal feeds. Microbial proteins and insect-based feeds remain niche due to insufficient commercial scaling to reduce reliance on imported soy and enhance sustainable feed alternatives. (Scottish Government, 2023). Many countries across Europe and Asia have updated their legal frameworks to capitalise on the significant benefits that industrial hemp offers. In contrast, development of the hemp sector in Scotland has been slow, largely due to restrictive regulations. Industrial hemp can sequester more carbon dioxide than many conventional crops, enhance soil biodiversity, remove toxins through phytoremediation, and act as a natural insecticide and pesticide. It is also a valuable source of protein, dietary fibre, essential micronutrients, and bioactive phytochemicals. (Dogbe, Revoredo-Giha & Russell, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Support farmers in transitioning to agroecological and climate-resilient practices	Farmers face financial and technical challenges in transitioning to sustainable agricultural systems. High upfront costs prevent the adoption of key technologies such as biochar application and precision livestock farming tools.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Slow adoption of low-emission farming practices: Farmers face high upfront costs for adopting new technologies, such as animal sensors and biochar application. Targeted financial incentives or support could improve uptake. (Scottish Government, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Promote economic and agricultural equity across the food system	Addressing the regressive nature of food taxes by redirecting financial resources toward more sustainable farming practices.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Implementing both tax policies and using the resulting revenue to subsidise consumers—particularly low-income households—can create a more equitable and less regressive public policy approach. By redistributing income through targeted payments or support schemes, this strategy helps mitigate the financial burden on vulnerable groups while still incentivising healthier and more sustainable food choices. (Nneli, Dogbe & Revoredo-Giha, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Taxes are regressive-redirect subsidies to more sustainable farming.” (Workshop 1).
Address perceptions surrounding the economic viability of sustainable farming choices	Enduring perception that beef farming is more profitable than vegetable crop production, influencing farmer choices and limiting opportunities for community wealth-building.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“For farmers: cows are more profitable than cabbage, so beef farming might be better for (e.g.) community wealth building.” (Workshop 4).
Reform agricultural financial support to align with sustainability goals	Current financial support continues to prioritise high-emission livestock farming, without clear incentives for climate-friendly production or crop diversification.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Scotland’s agricultural subsidies continue to favour high-emission livestock farming, with no clear mechanisms in the Good Food Nation Act to incentivise climate-friendly farming, diversify toward low-carbon crops, or enhance carbon footprint labelling for consumers. (Brennan, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Assess and recognise the economic value of grazing land	Despite Scotland’s extensive grazing land, concerns remain about the economic efficiency of meat production relative to its high cost.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Economic value of grazing land: Despite abundant grazing land in Scotland and the UK, the relatively high cost of meat raises concerns about economic efficiency. (Stakeholder Meeting 8).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Manage the rural economic impacts of reducing livestock numbers	Reducing livestock farming without strategic policy support could threaten the financial stability of meat producers and contribute to rural depopulation.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Impact of livestock reduction on rural communities: Livestock reduction policies may exacerbate rural depopulation due to economic reliance on agriculture. (Stakeholder Meeting 6).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Address price dynamics in meat and dairy markets	Higher red meat prices can sometimes drive increased production, complicating efforts to lower consumption.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Price dynamics and production response: Increases in red meat prices can lead to higher production levels, complicating efforts to reduce consumption. (Stakeholder Meeting 14).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Improve the affordability and accessibility of meat and dairy alternatives	High prices for plant-based alternatives, driven by supermarket pricing and financial support structures, limit consumer accessibility.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Price is a major factor preventing Scottish consumers from switching to plant-based meat. Subsidising plant-based alternatives or taxing meat products were ranked as potential solutions. (McBey, Sánchez, McCormick et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Higher markup on plant-based food in retail: Plant-based foods often carry a premium price, limiting affordability for many consumers. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“We assess that there is currently a price-premium on especially convenience alternatives to meat and dairy. This has many reasons, but people are clear that it will need to be addressed.” (Workshop 3).
2. Trade and Supply Chain Misalignment with Climate Goals
Align trade and supply chains with climate goals	Scotland’s food trade policies do not fully integrate net-zero ambitions, increasing the risk of offshoring environmental impacts. Expanding sustainable supply chains requires investment in skills, infrastructure, and collaborative mechanisms.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Export Dependencies: Highlights risks of offshoring emissions by reducing local production but offers limited strategies for linking domestic production to dietary transitions. (Thomson, Moxey & Hall, 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Food imports and emissions: Import reliance complicates carbon accounting and weakens domestic economic resilience. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Offsetting/Offshoring of emissions.” (Workshop 1).
Address procurement barriers for local and small-scale producers	Large multinational suppliers dominate public contracts, limiting opportunities for local and sustainable food producers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Current public procurement policies favour large multinational suppliers, making it difficult for local producers to compete for contracts. This limits market access for regional food systems and reduces opportunities to support sustainable, locally sourced food. (Scottish Government, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Strengthen livestock supply chain infrastructure	Transport, distribution, and processing capacity shortages, including a lack of small abattoirs, create challenges for small-scale farmers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Rural and island regions face transport and distribution challenges, making it less efficient to get food to markets. Processing capacity is limited: Lack of small abattoirs and local processing facilities hinders small farmers from scaling up. (Scottish Government, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Encourage consumer support for domestic agriculture	Strengthening links between primary producers and public-sector buyers can improve market access and resilience.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Links between primary producers and public sector…Opportunities for local producers to supply public sector.” (Workshop 1).
Enhance school meals by funding local and sustainable procurement	Initiatives like Food for Life have the potential to improve the quality and sustainability of school food. However, uptake is often limited by financial constraints at the local authority level, where budgets are already stretched and competing priorities make it difficult to invest in more sustainable food procurement.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Using school dinners for quality Much better now in terms of options. E.g., food for life in East Ayrshire- but financial pressures has been hammered. Transferring circa £10 million from agriculture budget to school food budget to support local procurement policies.” (Workshop 1).
Balance business influence in food policy decisions	Food policy decision-making often prioritises business interests over sustainability and inclusivity. The limited integration of industry sustainability commitments weakens efforts to reduce food system emissions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Decision-making processes privilege the business sector, sidelining civil society concerns and limiting democratic participation in food policy development (Food Farming & Countryside Commission (FFCC), 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Challenges in engaging food retailers: Difficulty in engaging with retailers and industry stakeholders hinders sustainable food practices. (Stakeholder Meeting 8).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“The role of the food industry: their involvement in research, funding of research… Industrial lobbying is strong.” (Workshop 4).
Expand market access for agroecological and small-scale producers	Small-scale agroecological producers face challenges accessing mainstream markets dominated by large retailers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Limited financial incentives: Most environmental incentive schemes do not explicitly support agroecological transitions. Many agroecological farmers self-fund their practices, creating financial vulnerability. (Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Linking producers and consumers: Policies and markets often fail to effectively connect producers with consumers, limiting market efficiency. (Stakeholder Meeting 3).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Minimise emissions from imported food products	Policies targeting dietary change may drive increased food imports, undermining local sustainability. In general, meat from countries with high deforestation or intensive farming may have a higher footprint than Scottish-produced meat.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	This case study applied a carbon displacement framework to hypothetical carbon policies affecting UK beef production. It found that financial pressure to cut emissions could force some UK producers out of business, potentially leading to increased beef imports from countries with higher emissions, thereby raising global emissions. While modest emission reductions are possible through cost-effective practices, deeper cuts would likely require greater financial and technical support. The findings suggest further analysis of UK beef production is needed. (Department for Food, Rural and Environmental Affairs (Defra), 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Consumption-focused policies risk increasing imports rather than reducing global emissions. Policies targeting consumption may inadvertently increase imports, undermining local sustainability. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Balance demand-side and supply-side strategies in food policy	Over-reliance on demand-side measures without sufficient supply-side interventions limits systemic change in sustainable food systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Overemphasis on demand-side strategies: Insufficient focus on supply-side measures weakens the resilience of sustainable food systems. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Balance domestic food standards with pressures from import competition	High food standards increase production costs, but low-cost imports undermine sustainability efforts. Trade strategy should prevent lower-welfare imports from undercutting UK farmers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Cost of produce will increase with greater standards and requirements, and then we see imports coming in that are favoured for being cheap, not just meat but cereals too. when supply chains get too long, its harder to see where its coming from… e.g. horse meat scandal need shorter supply chain and more locally produced food.” (Workshop 3).
Address the impacts of resource-intensive food production	The food industry prioritises high-value convenience foods with inefficient transportation systems, reducing sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Resource-intensive convenience food production: The industry favours low-volume, high-value, resource-intensive convenience foods, and inefficient transportation, reducing sustainability. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Enhance food system resilience to global and domestic shocks	Structural vulnerabilities in food imports, land control, and export distribution impact local food security and community wealth-building.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Chatham House report – Choke points identified in red/amber/green rating. Current barrier is imported food. It seems we have enough land to address our vulnerability, but the control of the land is an issue. This includes food for animals and fertilizers and exported goods not going to local areas which might not contribute to community wealth building.” (Workshop 4).
Manage carbon leakage risks in livestock trade and production	Carbon taxes on livestock risk increasing imports and causing carbon leakage without complementary trade adjustments.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	There is a significant risk of carbon leakage resulting from import substitution, where domestic efforts to reduce emissions in meat production may inadvertently lead to increased imports from countries with more carbon-intensive farming practices. Currently, there is no clear mitigation strategy in place to address this issue, which could undermine national climate targets and shift environmental impacts abroad rather than reducing them overall. (Scottish Parliament, n.d.b).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Promote sustainable practices in supermarket and retail food supply	Since most food decisions are made in supermarkets, responsible retail practices are crucial for shifting consumer demand toward sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Sustainability-oriented retailers can use innovative behavioural tools to promote healthier and climate-friendlier foods (such as vegetables) while meeting the “triple bottom line”. A real-life supermarket trial in Denmark tested if multi-layered nudges can increase the purchase of fruit and vegetables. The intervention led to small increases in sales. These findings showcase the possibility that supermarkets, in principle, have agency and ability to nudge consumers towards more sustainable diets. (Bauer, Aarestrup, Hansen, et al., 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Supermarkets are where vast majority of decisions are made so we need to get that side of retail right.” (Workshop 3).
Develop sustainable supply chain partnerships	Strengthening collaborations for key crops and improving processing infrastructure can enhance food system sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Supply chains for human consumption- SAOS-Bere Barley; processing facilities-peas and beans.” (Workshop 1).
Align market demand with sustainable food choices	Consumer preferences, such as demand for sweeter apples, shape market dynamics and need to be considered in food system planning.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Found that of the three perceptions measured, consumers derive the most utility out of how they perceive a product’s taste, rather than how healthy or safe they believe the product to be. (Malone & Lusk, 2017).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Demand-market wants sweeter apples.” (Workshop 1).
3. Funding Gaps for Food Systems
Ensure stable funding for urban agriculture	Urban agriculture development is constrained by unstable, short-term funding, limiting its potential contribution to sustainable diets and climate goals.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Urban agriculture (UA) currently relies heavily on short-term or temporary funding streams, which can limit its capacity to scale and sustain operations. This lack of stable, long-term investment undermines its potential to contribute meaningfully to long-term dietary change, local food security, and climate resilience. A more consistent and strategic funding approach is needed to unlock the full benefits of UA as part of a sustainable food system. (White & Bunn, 2017).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Secure long-term food budgets in public institutions	Dedicated, ring-fenced funding is needed for food provision in schools and hospitals to support quality and sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Promoting plant-based menus through procurement: Public procurement policies offer significant opportunities to promote plant-based menus in public institutions such as schools, hospitals, and government offices. Effectively leveraging these regulations could support sustainability goals and encourage healthier dietary habits. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Budget and funding Food budgets not ring fenced in schools/hospitals” (Workshop 1).
Strengthen support for community-based food initiatives and the third sector	Long-term funding is needed to sustain community-led food programs, address health inequalities, and support vulnerable groups. Over-reliance on overstretched third-sector organisations risks undermining their role in strengthening local food networks.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Lack of long-term funding for community/voluntary organisations.” (Workshop 1).
Subsidise public dining to promote health and community wellbeing	Affordable, healthy meals outside the home can encourage better eating habits, inspire home cooking, and foster social dining spaces.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Lack of nutritional and environmental standards for out-of-home food: There is a lack of comprehensive regulations governing the nutritional and environmental standards of food sold in restaurants, cafes, and takeaway services. This regulatory gap limits the effectiveness of policy interventions aimed at fostering healthier and more sustainable dietary habits. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Education – aspects of bringing nutritious food into schools as well as teaching children about healthy foods Public diners – we subsidise everything else! So why do we not subsidise food. Work with culture around eating out of the home to provide healthy and affordable meals for everyone. May support inspiring people re cooking at home, as well as providing a social space.” (Workshop 4).
4. Consumer-Focused Fiscal Policies and Incentives
Address VAT disparities for plant-based foods	Some plant-based meat alternatives (processed or prepared products such as hot takeaway food) are subject to VAT. Extending VAT exemptions could encourage meat reduction.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Some plant-based meat alternatives are not VAT-exempt. This disparity in fiscal treatment creates a financial barrier to choosing more sustainable and lower-emission protein sources. Extending VAT exemptions or other financial incentives to plant-based meat alternatives could encourage greater consumer uptake, support dietary shifts aligned with climate and health goals, and promote market growth in the plant-based sector. (Kennedy, Clark, Stewart et al., 2025).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Reduce economic dependence on alcohol and processed food sectors	Scotland’s food system is heavily reliant on the economic contributions of alcoholic beverages and processed foods, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Food systems are linked to economic opportunities for people in Scotland – but our food industry is heavily tied to alcoholic drinks and processed foods.” (Workshop 4).
Internalise environmental and health costs within the food system	The current food system externalises costs like healthcare burdens from poor diets and environmental degradation onto society, rather than incorporating them into economic policies.
Supporting evidence: Literature review
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Externalisation of costs: The current food system externalises many economic costs, such as healthcare expenses linked to poor diets and environmental degradation costs, which are not adequately accounted for in economic policies. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Manage dietary shifts resulting from red meat reduction policies	Reducing red meat consumption may lead to increased demand for white meat and dairy, with potentially conflicting environmental and health outcomes. Negative perceptions of plant-based alternatives could also limit dietary shifts.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Substitution of red meat and perceptions of plant-based alternatives: Red meat reduction policies may unintentionally drive demand toward other meat products, such as white meat, due to negative perceptions of the healthiness of plant-based alternatives. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Prevent over-reliance on ultra-processed foods in sustainable diet transitions	Moving away from fresh meat could increase reliance on ultra-processed alternatives, posing health and sustainability concerns.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“There’s a risk that moving away from fresh meat means to a turn to ultra-processed food.” (Workshop 4).
Balance growth in the plant-based sector with sustainability objectives	There is a risk that increased plant-based food demand could lead to more industrial production while factory farming persists.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Increasing demand for plant-based diets in the UK, including Scotland, may drive industrialized food production rather than promoting sustainable agriculture. As plant-based food demand rises, major food corporations may scale up industrial production, leading to more monoculture farming and intensification. (Rhymes, Stockdale & Napier, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Risk that promoting plant-based food leads to an increase in industrial production of plant-based foods alongside continued factory farming.” (Workshop 4).
5. Structural and Social Barriers in Agricultural transition
Assess the viability of agroecological farming models	Limited research on the financial and social sustainability of agroecology prevents evidence-based policymaking.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	There is currently no comprehensive cost-benefit analysis comparing agroecological farming with conventional agricultural systems in the Scottish context. This lack of evidence limits policymakers’ and producers’ ability to make informed decisions about transitioning to more sustainable practices. In particular, there is a need for robust financial models that capture the long-term economic, environmental, and social resilience benefits of agroecology, including reduced input costs, improved soil health, biodiversity gains, and greater climate adaptability. Addressing this evidence gap is essential for supporting policy development and encouraging wider adoption of agroecological approaches. (Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Strengthen support for rural and agricultural workers	Inadequate policies limit rural workers’ access to land, resources, and affordable housing, creating barriers to sustainable food system employment.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Current policies fall short in addressing structural barriers faced by rural agricultural workers, particularly in relation to secure access to land, essential resources, and affordable housing. These challenges limit opportunities for participation in sustainable food production and contribute to rural inequality. To support a just transition in the food system, policies must more effectively promote equitable access and create enabling conditions for rural livelihoods, especially for new entrants and marginalised communities. (Centre for Climate and Social Transformations (CAST), 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Develop economic transition strategies for the livestock sector	A clear economic transition strategy is needed to support industries affected by reduced red meat and dairy consumption. Triple Win economic models could help guide policy by capturing co-benefits across community wellbeing, public health, and cost savings.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Triple win economic models are frameworks or strategies designed to deliver simultaneous benefits (or “wins”) across three key domains—usually economic, environmental, and social outcomes. These models are particularly popular in sustainability, public policy, and development sectors. (Ellis & Tschakert, 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“There is a gap in the development of triple win economic modelling which policy and decision makers can rely on and inform how the money best should be spent. An example is a study made in England on “broken pavements”, the cost claims by people, the cost avoidance of the council not being held accountable against the claims against the total cost implication for NHS i.e. NHS had to pick up the cost because of people hurt by damaged pavement. Community growing and the cost avoidance of seeking health care services is missing.” (Workshop 1)
Support new entrants to farming and food production	Rising land costs and financial barriers make it difficult for new farmers to secure land and adopt sustainable practices.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Limited financial incentives: Most environmental incentive schemes do not explicitly support agroecological transitions. Many agroecological farmers self-fund their practices, creating financial vulnerability. Access to land tenure and financial support is a major barrier for new entrants, despite them being more likely to adopt agroecology. Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Land ownership and affordability issues: Competition and rising land costs are pricing out farmers, limiting opportunities for sustainable agricultural transitions. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Build a resilient and skilled workforce across the food sector	To address labour shortages in the food sector, policies should improve migration pathways, expand skills development, and offer incentives to attract and retain workers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Workforce strategies, skills development and incentives to overcome labour shortages and create attractive career opportunities.” (Workshop 1).

Appendix I: Extended Social analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Key Theme	Area For Policy Development
1. Food Access and Affordability Inequalities
Ensure equitable access to sustainable and healthy diets	Lower-income, rural, and marginalised groups face financial and logistical barriers to adopting sustainable diets. Existing policies and financial support do not adequately ensure food affordability, while tax-based approaches like red meat levies lack protections for vulnerable households.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Public awareness of sustainable diets and their environmental impacts has increased over the past decade, but this growth is uneven across socioeconomic groups. Higher-deprivation (HD) groups face greater barriers, including availability and access, cost concerns and scepticism about health and environmental benefits, limiting their willingness to adopt sustainable dietary practices. (Food Standards Scotland (FSS), 2021a).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Low-income and rural communities face higher food costs, limited access to affordable healthy food, and reduced resilience to economic shocks. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Food insecurity also discussed – cost of healthy food as a barrier, and food banks often do not allow a healthy diet.” (Workshop 4, Group 2).
Enhance inclusion and participation in local food systems	Food systems should be designed to accommodate diverse needs, including time constraints, geographic location, and preferred access points.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Suggests attending to a range of consumer-related changes: Medium-term actions: The nature of consumer demand and its capacity to adjust to social and cultural expectations in the light of market realities and policy priorities. The national, devolved, regional, local dimensions of food and its role as a determinant of identity. The desired consumer outcomes including the nature of a sustainable diet. The role of regulation, ‘consumer choice editing’ and marketing in shaping consumer choice A description of the EU/UK’s ‘sustainable consumer diet’. The development of communication and education strategies to engage the public on key food issues. (Ambler-Edwards, Bailey, Kiff et al., 2009).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Consumers may not feel fully in control of their dietary choices due to economic, social, and cultural constraints. (Stakeholder Meeting 9).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“How do people want to interact with this system? Time poor, etc. Geography, Creating the spaces that people want to access the food they need at their location.” (Workshop 1).
Increase the availability of affordable, healthy food options outside the home	Policies insufficiently address affordability and accessibility of healthier out-of-home food choices, disproportionately affecting lower-income consumers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	There is a persistent gap in policy and practice regarding the affordability and accessibility of healthier food options in out-of-home (OOH) settings, such as restaurants, cafés, takeaways, and workplace canteens. While public health initiatives emphasise the importance of nutritious diets, current policies often fall short in ensuring that healthier choices are both financially viable and widely available across different socioeconomic groups. Food Standards Scotland (FSS), 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	There is a lack of comprehensive regulations governing the nutritional and environmental standards of food sold in restaurants, cafes, and takeaway services. This regulatory gap limits the effectiveness of policy interventions aimed at fostering healthier and more sustainable dietary habits. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Improve access to cooking facilities, skills, and food literacy	Households with limited cooking equipment, high energy costs, or inadequate storage face difficulties in preparing sustainable meals.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The study investigates how residents in energy-efficient, affordable housing in Scotland experience their kitchen environments. With a national push toward low-carbon housing, the paper explores whether energy-efficient designs support or constrain occupants in their daily cooking and living practices. Architectural Design, Building Services & Energy Use, fixtures and storage affected diet and had social and psychological impacts. (Foster & Poston, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Households with limited access to proper cooking equipment, affordable energy, or sufficient food storage options face challenges in preparing healthy, sustainable meals. (Stakeholder Meeting 8).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Appeal: Social and cultural barriers/appeal of healthy food Including skills and knowledge and time poor Less links with food production and consumption Place of food in society (value not just cost).” (Workshop 1).
Address the psychological, cultural, and economic barriers influencing food choices	Financial stress, mental health challenges, and economic insecurity impact the ability to make sustainable food choices, with food often serving as a coping mechanism.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The study identified links between kitchen environments and unintended consequences of their design on occupants. These included architectural issues such as draughts, limited natural light, noisy or ineffective ventilation systems, non-opening kitchen windows, and difficulties in placing appliances. Not all findings were exclusive to low-energy homes, highlighting the need for targeted research to explore these issues further. A deeper understanding is required to assess whether tenants’ adaptive behaviours may influence their diet and affect their respiratory, physical, and mental health. (Foster & Poston, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Mental health, stress, and economic precarity influence people’s ability to make sustainable food choices, with food often used as a coping mechanism in challenging circumstances. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
2. Availability of Healthier and Sustainable Food Options
Expand access to alternative proteins in mainstream food environments	The availability of meat-free options remains low in common food products, with only 12% of ready-to-eat sandwiches in the UK being meat-free.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The food service sector is leading change by rapidly expanding meat-free sandwich options—34% of its range is now meat-free, with half of those being plant-based. In contrast, major food retailers are falling behind, with some even reducing their meat-free offerings since 2019. Notably, alternative proteins as fillings have risen by 620% since 2019, reflecting increased investment in this area. Among the big supermarkets, Sainsbury’s has improved its plant-based range, while Tesco, Morrisons, and Asda have scaled back. Vegetarian sandwiches have seen a 22% drop across retailer ranges. Overall, meat and cheese still dominate, and most high salt or fat sandwiches contain meat, limiting healthy and sustainable choices. Despite growth, plant-based sandwiches remain the most expensive, making them less accessible—especially during a cost-of-living crisis. (Eating Better, 2022). The availability of meat-free alternatives, especially for popular items like sandwiches, remains low, with only 12% of ready-to-eat sandwiches in the UK being meat-free. (Stewart, Runions, McNeill, et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Lead by example: public sector organisations and institutions to move to offering balanced, plant-based diets. this would make it more of a norm.” (Workshop 4).
Address urban food swamps and improve access to healthy food	Many urban areas suffer from an overconcentration of fast food and ultra-processed options, requiring targeted policy interventions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Geographical and socioeconomic inequalities limit access to healthy and sustainable food, leading to “food deserts.” (Mitev, Portes, Osman et al., 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Urban areas face “food swamps,” characterised by the prevalence of fast food and ultra-processed foods, which require targeted interventions. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Planning to support healthier environments Support local food and production initiatives e.g., to support those in urban areas and food deserts Opportunities- GFN and implementing local plans including procurement.” (Workshop 1).
Improve consumer information and transparency through food labelling	Consumers lack clear sustainability information on takeaway and restaurant food, limiting informed choices. Honest food labelling should ensure transparency on welfare standards, environmental impact, and product origins.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Consumers often feel uninformed about the sustainability of food choices when dining out or ordering takeaways, limiting their ability to make environmentally conscious decisions. (Food Standards Scotland (FSS), 2021a).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Awareness campaigns should address how consumer choices are manipulated by food marketing strategies. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Reduce the consumption of ultra-processed foods	Despite high levels of ultra-processed food consumption in the UK, policies do not promote shifts toward minimally processed, locally sourced foods.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The report highlights that the UK has high levels of ultra-processed food consumption. There is an opportunity for policies that encourage dietary shifts towards minimally processed locally sourced foods through public awareness campaigns and incentives. Hasnain et al (2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Ultra-processed foods, such as those offered by large fast-food chains (e.g., Domino’s Pizza), are often inconsistent with the principles of a sustainable food culture due to their high environmental footprint. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Overcome negative perceptions of plant-based meat alternatives	Concerns over food standards post-Brexit and perceptions of plant-based meat alternatives (PBMAs) as ultra-processed discourage consumer adoption.
Supporting evidence: Literature review
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Red meat reduction policies may unintentionally drive demand toward other meat products, such as white meat, due to negative perceptions of the healthiness of plant-based alternatives. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Public perception will be challenging, fear of Frankenfood.” (Workshop 1).
Integrate sustainable food practices into social and public environments	While schools promote healthy meals, there is little policy support for sustainable food options in fast food outlets and other social settings.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Support for social contexts: Encourage sustainable food options in fast food outlets and social settings, addressing the cultural importance of such spaces for young people. (McBey, Rothenberg, Cleland et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	There is a lack of comprehensive regulations governing the nutritional and environmental standards of food sold in restaurants, cafes, and takeaway services. This regulatory gap limits the effectiveness of policy interventions aimed at fostering healthier and more sustainable dietary habits. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Local planning systems – don’t currently have levers to determine what food outlets are available in a local area.” (Workshop 4).
Address sensory and aesthetic barriers to alternative protein adoption	The taste, texture, and unfamiliarity of plant-based foods, along with the “disgust factor” of lab-grown meat and edible insects, limit their acceptance.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The appeal of plant-based diets is often hindered by unfamiliar flavours, textures, and food neophobia, making them less enticing for some consumers. Additionally, perceived sensory drawbacks and the “disgust factor” present major obstacles to the acceptance of novel protein sources such as edible insects and lab-grown meat, limiting their mainstream adoption. (Food Standards Agency (FSA), 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Red meat reduction policies may unintentionally drive demand toward other meat products, such as white meat, due to negative perceptions of the healthiness of plant-based alternatives. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
3. Cultural, Health, and Equity Considerations
Ensure cultural equity in dietary policy	Policies promoting meat reduction must consider cultural dietary practices, such as Halal diets, to ensure equitable food access.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	The intersection of cultural dietary practices (e.g., Halal diets in Glasgow) with meat reduction policies raises equity considerations. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Risk of culturally appropriate food.” (Workshop 1).
Assess health impacts of meat reduction and provide targeted guidance	The Scottish Dietary Goals include a general recommendation to limit red and processed meat intake to 70g per day, but they do not offer specific or targeted guidance for individuals who consume high levels of meat.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Scottish Dietary Goals do not include specific guidelines to support high consumers of red and processed meat in transitioning to healthier, lower-emission diets, limiting the effectiveness of dietary and sustainability interventions. There is a need for guidelines that help high consumers of red and processed meat transition toward healthier, lower-emission diets, which are currently missing from Scottish Dietary Goals. (Comrie et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Poor health outcomes and dietary patterns in Scotland may worsen if red meat reduction strategies do not account for suitable nutritional replacements. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Price, affordability, and accessibility of food that is recommended in the dietary goals. People rely on ultraprocessed food to plug the gap in their diets due to affordability of healthier or more sustainable items such as locally grown fruit, veg, or meat. From an education perspective, people know what they should be doing, but it is not possible to do this for many people – need to stop focusing on information, and instead focus on improving provision. We are worsening inequalities by asking people to buy more fruit and vegetables but not making this available equally to them.” (Workshop 4).
Expand the focus of dietary policy beyond individual health	Policy approaches should move beyond solely focusing on meat reduction messaging and instead integrate messaging that promotes increased consumption of fibre, fruit, and vegetables. Given the limited success of standalone meat reduction campaigns, a more holistic and positive framing may be more effective.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Focus seems to be on meat reduction when it could be on fibre/ F+V increase.” (Workshop 3).
Overcome misperceptions and structural barriers to healthier eating	Many Scots mistakenly believe they meet dietary guidelines, while strong taste preferences create resistance to reformulated foods. Early education and culturally sensitive messaging are needed.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Many Scottish adults believe their diet meets guidelines, but in reality, most do not. 70% of people consuming high-salt foods (e.g., ready meals, processed meats) believe they are eating within or below the recommended limits. 66% of people consuming confectionery and biscuits frequently think they are within sugar guidelines. Awareness of unhealthy consumption remains a key issue, suggesting that consumer education and product reformulation could play a crucial role in closing this gap. (Food and Drink Federation Scotland (FDF), 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Address misconceptions around healthy diets – raise awareness that current dietary patterns (on average, across the country) are unhealthy, and that a meat reduction would in fact be healthy for many people. This should also present plant-based foods as a sustainable option, not just a trend / fad. This could start with early years and be incorporated into the curriculum. It should take account of varied cultures and traditions, and acknowledge how massively the Scottish population has changed.” (Workshop 4).
Build public trust in agriculture and dietary recommendations	Greater transparency and engagement are needed to rebuild consumer trust in agricultural institutions. Conflicting media narratives have fuelled public distrust in dietary recommendations.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Significant issue in policies aimed at rebuilding trust in agricultural institutions through transparency and community engagement, particularly in the context of transitioning from meat and dairy to plant-based agriculture. Meat as the Default: Many Scots see meat as an essential part of a meal, making plant-based alternatives feel unnatural. Scepticism About Health Claims: People distrust health recommendations due to conflicting messages in the media. Limited Awareness of Environmental Impact: Most consumers do not link meat consumption to climate change. Price and Convenience: Many participants perceived plant-based options as expensive, inconvenient, or unfamiliar. (McBey, Watts & Johnstone, 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Media narratives can contribute to the negative depictions of farmers, influencing public perceptions and stakeholder relationships. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Public perception will be challenging, fear of Frankenfood.” (Workshop 1).
Address the social stigma associated with plant-based diets	The perception of plant-based diets as elitist or judgmental discourages dietary shifts, requiring reframing to improve acceptance.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Found that some participants expressed frustration with what they viewed as urban-centric or moralising narratives around veganism, which they felt overlooked the realities of Scottish rural and farming communities. For example, one participant criticised “vegan warriors” who aggressively promote veganism without understanding rural food systems, labelling such activism as unhelpful and antagonistic. (Brett, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Social stigma affects dietary shifts, with plant-based diets sometimes perceived as elitist or judgmental. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“The terms “plant-based” and “vegan” as negative connotations-threats to identity of farmers.” (Workshop 1).
Shape media narratives around farmers and sustainable diets	Media portrayals can contribute to negative depictions of farmers, influencing public perceptions and policy debates.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Discusses how Scottish farmers are judged by urban-centric standards, where cultural capital is eroded by media-fuelled stereotypes (e.g., greedy landowners, climate change deniers). Explores how these portrayals undermine rural social cohesion and farmer legitimacy. (Sutherland & Burton, 2011).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Media narratives can contribute to the villainisation of farmers, influencing public perceptions and stakeholder relationships. (Stakeholder Meeting 6).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Clarify the definition of “plant-based” in policy and markets	The term “plant-based” carries different meanings for different stakeholders, creating confusion in communication and labelling.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Found that meat substitutes were interpreted differently in terms of nutrition, cost, convenience, etc. (McBey, Watts & Johnstone, 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Plant-based-what does it mean? Something different to everyone.” (Workshop 1).
Improve knowledge and support for regenerative agricultural practices	Raising awareness and providing policy support for regenerative farming practices can improve adoption and sustainability outcomes.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Leadership, coherence and commitment to align policy implementation and delivery with the Scottish Government’s vision, targets, and ambitions for agriculture, nature recovery, net zero vision and a Just Transition, and to avoid a reinvention – or worse, a watering down, of the status quo (i.e., the CAP), and outline 17 steps towards regenerative agriculture (Brodie, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Insufficient subsidies and grants to support diversification into sustainable agriculture. (Stakeholder Meeting 6).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Few examples available of successful regenerative practices.” (Workshop 4).
Strengthen dialogue and cooperation among producers	Improving communication and collaboration among agricultural producers can support coordinated and sustainable food production.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Building trust and engagement with the farming, crofting, and land management sector — including its representative bodies and media — is essential for increasing the uptake of nature-based solutions (NbS). Recommendations for the Scottish Government: Clearly communicate what is expected from the sector under the Agricultural Reform Programme (ARP), and by when. Current uncertainty is contributing to inertia and resistance to change. Frame communications around the business benefits of adopting NbS — such as improving resilience to economic and climate-related shocks, supporting food production, and boosting profitability. Messaging should directly counter sector narratives that portray NbS as peripheral or burdensome. Share compelling, real-world examples of farmers and land managers who have successfully embedded NbS into their core operations, and promote these stories through sector media outlets like The Scottish Farmer and Landward. Ensure that individuals with direct experience in farming, crofting, and land management are actively involved in the design and testing of ARP policy. Their input is vital to ensure credibility, practicality, and sector buy-in. (Brodie, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Scotland’s agricultural vision emphasizes sustainable and regenerative farming practices, aiming to improve land management, enhance biodiversity, and promote long-term environmental viability. (Stakeholder Meeting 14).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Dialogue between producers-agriculture cooperation.” (Workshop 3).
Restore cultural connections to food and farming traditions	Addressing the legacy of industrial food production by fostering appreciation for food origins, sustainability, and health impacts.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Explores the strong consumer attachment to locally produced food in Scotland, highlighting how this loyalty is often associated with perceptions of sustainability, trust, and quality. It notes that local origin is frequently seen as a proxy for environmentally responsible and healthier food choices, even when this may not always reflect the full environmental impact. Recommends enhancing consumer education to improve understanding of food origin, sustainability credentials, and health claims. This includes raising awareness about how production methods, supply chains, and labelling affect environmental and health outcomes—helping consumers make more informed, evidence-based choices. (Leat, Revoredo-Giha & Lamprinopoulou, 2011).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Consumers often lack awareness of food provenance, challenging narratives around food sovereignty. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Improve relationship with food. Industrial farming/food production to overcome hunger in late 19th/early 20th centuries has altered how we understand and interact with food. Need to improve relationship with food, bringing back cultural elements and also an appreciation of where food comes from, how it is grown/processed, and how it affects our planet and our health.” (Workshop 4).
Promote sustainable meat reduction in culturally significant meals	Policies overlook opportunities to encourage lower meat intake in culturally significant meals, while social traditions make plant-based alternatives feel unfamiliar or unnatural.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	This study conducted focus groups across Scotland to assess attitudes toward reducing meat in familiar dishes. Explored acceptance of plant-based alternatives to staple meat-based meals. Participants expressed mixed reactions, with older and rural Scots more resistant to replacing meat in “staple” meals. (McBey, Watts & Johnstone, 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Strong cultural attachments to traditional diets, particularly in rural communities, create barriers to dietary change. (Stakeholder Meeting 3).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Traditions, habits, and culture: Cultural traditions around ways of living – needing food to fuel a physical working day. A meat industry has grown around that – the fish industry hasn’t grown in the same way / as strong. These traditions, which have started in childhood, when people see food being produced, carry those habits into school and beyond.” (Workshop 4).
Enhance cultural sensitivity in policy design and public messaging	Campaigns should consider cultural, regional, and social differences to avoid alienating certain groups.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Existing studies on barriers to, and enablers for, reducing meat consumption largely focus on the general population or students. Found that social norms, fear of stigmatisation and availability and price of meat and meat alternatives appear to be key factors. These differ significantly between subgroups within the population, influenced by factors such as age, gender, culture and socio-economic status. (Spiro, Hill & Stanner, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	The intersection of cultural dietary practices (e.g., Halal diets in Glasgow) with meat reduction policies raises equity considerations. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Support farmer-to-farmer knowledge exchange and peer learning	Expanding opportunities for sustainability-focused peer learning and knowledge sharing among farmers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Transformation in agricultural land management is critical to achieving Scottish Government’s aims of mitigating climate change, addressing the biodiversity crisis, and achieving a just transition for land and agriculture. Providing advice and collaborative learning opportunities through the Farm Advisory Service (FAS) is the key mechanism to deliver behaviour change in the agricultural sector. The Scottish Government is seeking to better integrate the FAS into an agricultural knowledge and innovation system (AKIS) for Scotland. AKIS is a system of innovation which links organisations, institutions, incentives and funding. This research comprises an evidence review and options appraisal for an agricultural knowledge and innovation system (AKIS) for Scotland. (Sutherland, Banks, Boyce et al., 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Address generational tensions in dietary transitions	In Scotland, younger generations tend to be more climate-conscious in their attitudes toward diet, with greater openness to reducing meat consumption and considering environmental impacts. However, actual behaviour may not always align with these intentions. Resistance from older family and community norms can also create barriers to change.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	A 2024 survey by Consumer Scotland found that 85% of individuals aged 16-24 expressed concern about climate change, compared to 76% of the general population. This heightened awareness among younger Scots is influencing their dietary choices. For instance, a 2023 report by Food Standards Scotland revealed that 45% of 16-24-year-olds reported reducing their meat or fish consumption, a higher proportion than in older age groups. Additionally, the same report noted that 30% of individuals over 65 years would not consider eating less meat or fish, indicating a generational difference in attitudes towards meat consumption. (Cotton, Gosschalk, Gray et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Younger generations tend to be more environmentally conscious in their dietary choices, often favouring sustainable and plant-based options. However, their efforts to adopt climate-friendly eating habits frequently encounter resistance rooted in longstanding traditions, cultural expectations, and dietary norms upheld by older family members and the broader community. These intergenerational tensions can pose significant barriers to meaningful change. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Carbon labelling on foods – WHO suggests young people more likely to change their diet because of climate concerns than health concerns – I think this links with young people’s climate anxiety etc.” (Workshop 4).
Improve access to mental health support for farmers	Financial stress, environmental uncertainties, and policy changes contribute to high mental health burdens among farmers, requiring targeted interventions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Poor mental health is an increasing concern within the farming sector. This article examines the adaptability of “landscapes of support” — a term used to describe the range of mental health support available to farmers, including services provided by government bodies, non-profits, and community organisations. Focusing on the UK, the study draws on a literature review, interviews with 22 support providers, surveys of 93 support actors and 207 farmers, and a concluding workshop. The findings reveal that while many organisations adapted during the COVID-19 pandemic by using digital tools and expanding media outreach, they also faced significant barriers, including funding shortfalls, limited training, staff burnout, and poor rural connectivity. The article identifies opportunities to strengthen these support systems to ensure they are more resilient in the face of future crises. (Shortland, Hall, Hurley et al., 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
4. Digital and Seasonal Food
Address digital inequalities in food access	Rural and lower-income consumers face barriers to accessing food delivery technologies, creating disparities in digital food system participation.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Policy interventions must account for unequal access to digital tools and platforms, particularly among rural populations and lower-income households. These groups may face barriers such as limited broadband connectivity, lack of digital literacy, or affordability issues, which restrict their ability to engage with online food systems, including grocery delivery, meal planning apps, or sustainability-focused platforms. Addressing these disparities is essential to ensure equitable participation in emerging food technologies and digital food environments. (Scottish Government, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Digital tools (e.g., benefit calculators) depend on reliable internet access and digital literacy, potentially excluding vulnerable populations with poor dietary outcomes. (Stakeholder Meeting 12).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Ensure equity in seasonal diet transitions	A shift toward seasonal diets should not exacerbate existing social and economic disparities in food access.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Local produce often needs long-term storage (e.g. apples, onions, potatoes, cabbage) to remain available year-round. Storage leads to nutrient degradation, especially for vitamin C and antioxidants. Frozen local foods preserve better but require energy-intensive processing (e.g., blanching), which can also reduce nutrients like B vitamins. No studies yet published have considered the overall health benefits of eating a wholly local diet compared to a similar diet produced non-locally. (Edwards-Jones, 2010).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Shift towards seasonality, but this could amplify existing inequalities.” (Workshop 1).
5: Consumer Education and Behavioural Change
Enhance consumer education on sustainable diets	Without targeted behavioural support, most people in Scotland struggle to align their diets with the Eatwell Guide, limiting progress toward CCC targets.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The research finds that most people in Scotland do not follow the Eatwell Guide, making meat and dairy an important source of nutrients. This suggests that simply recommending dietary shifts without supporting consumer behavior change will be ineffective. Policy Gap: Absence of strong public awareness campaigns to help consumers transition to healthier, more sustainable diets, such as: Educational initiatives on how to replace meat and dairy with nutrient-rich plant-based foods. Supermarket incentives or labeling schemes to highlight healthier, climate-friendly food choices. (Food Standards Scotland (FSS), 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Meat consumption trends in Scotland suggest an increase, highlighting the challenge of shifting dietary habits toward sustainability. (Stakeholder Meeting 6).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Dietary guidance- Eatwell Plate- if we followed it emissions would be reduced e.g., high volume of red meat eaters Which metrics are we using e.g., chicken (low carbon?) People don’t pay attention to dietary guidance.” (Workshop 1).
Clarify nutritional guidance for dietary transitions	Policies fail to provide comprehensive public education on suitable dietary substitutions and the potential risks of reducing meat and dairy consumption.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Micronutrient Risks: The report highlights that reducing meat and dairy consumption can lead to decreased intakes of certain key nutrients (e.g., calcium, iron, vitamin B12), especially without careful substitutions. Groups with existing low nutrient intakes are at heightened risk under scenarios of reduced meat and dairy intake. Policies to enhance public understanding of appropriate dietary substitutions and potential nutrient risks associated with reduced meat and dairy are limited, suggesting an opportunity for educational initiatives. (Comrie et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	The recommended 70g per day of red meat is often seen as a dietary requirement rather than a maximum limit, affecting efforts to normalise lower meat consumption. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Strengthen consumer connections to sustainable and local food systems	A disconnect between modern food habits and local food traditions reduces demand for low-carbon, locally produced foods.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Better and bolder communication is needed to overcome a disconnect between what people buy and how they consume food and the production processes that have negative environmental impacts. Issues around food production and land use, and the links to food consumption need to be addressed. (Centre for Climate Change and Social Transformations (CAST), 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	disconnection between people, nature, and food systems weakens public engagement with sustainable diets. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Local and community action around education and reconnecting to the land. Promoting interconnectedness between producers and consumers. This will look different depending on the setting – urban and rural environments will look different in the nature available to them and how they connect with nature. Requires input from local authorities, education institutions, local business/producers/suppliers to work together.” (Workshop 4).
Define and communicate what constitutes a ‘sustainable diet’	The term “sustainable diet” is interpreted in varying ways, from affordability to environmental impact, complicating policy communication and engagement.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Public understanding of what constitutes a “sustainable diet” is often diverse and inconsistent. For some, the concept is primarily linked to environmental impact, such as reducing carbon emissions or minimizing food waste. For others, it may be more closely associated with affordability, food security, or simply ensuring access to enough food to meet basic nutritional needs. This variation in interpretation highlights the need for clearer public communication and education around the multiple dimensions of sustainable diets—including environmental, economic, cultural, and health-related factors—to build a shared understanding and support informed decision-making. (Cleland, McBey, Darlene et al., 2025).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Improve dietary messaging for young people	Adolescents are aware of environmental issues but lack understanding of the impact of meat consumption. Stronger educational initiatives and trusted voices are needed to clarify dietary choices.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Adolescents were generally knowledgeable about the basic principles of sustainable diets but lacked familiarity with the term itself. Environmental impacts of food, such as packaging and transportation (food miles), were more commonly understood than the broader sustainability of diets, such as reducing meat consumption. Many young people prioritized other environmental actions, such as reducing plastic waste and air travel, over dietary changes. (McBey, Rothenberg, Cleland et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Limited institutional mechanisms exist to incorporate youth perspectives into food and climate policy discussions, despite high climate awareness among younger populations. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Messaging – who are the trusted messages? Social media – young people and protein, influencers – do we need to recruit these people?” (Workshop 3).
Raise public awareness of the links between diet and climate change	Many consumers do not associate meat consumption with climate change, reducing engagement with sustainable dietary changes. Clear communication is needed about the pathway to net zero and the role of diets.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Research found that many consumers lack awareness of the connection between meat consumption and climate change. Meat is often viewed primarily through the lens of taste, tradition, or nutrition, with little consideration given to its environmental footprint. As a result, the role of meat production in contributing to greenhouse gas emissions, land use, and biodiversity loss is not widely understood. This highlights the need for targeted public education campaigns to bridge the knowledge gap and promote more climate-conscious dietary choices. (McBey, Watts & Johnstone, 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“We advocate strongly for the government to be very clear what the most impactful household choices are that people can take to reduce emissions and being clear that an average reduction of meat and dairy consumption is part of it.” (Workshop 3).
Address misconceptions about alternative proteins	Widespread misconceptions about lab-grown meat and edible insects hinder their public acceptance as sustainable protein options.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Consumer Confidence in Safety and Regulation A significant number of consumers express hesitation toward novel food products—particularly lab-grown meat and edible insects—due to concerns about their safety and how they are regulated. Recommended policy response: Strengthen regulatory frameworks, enhance transparency in production processes, and improve public communication to build trust and reassure consumers about the safety of these emerging food technologies. Cultural Acceptance and Public Perception Deep-seated cultural attitudes and the “disgust factor” continue to pose major barriers to the acceptance of edible insects and lab-grown meat. Addressing these perceptions through culturally sensitive education and engagement is key to improving public receptivity. (Food Standards Agency Scotland (FSAS), 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Red meat reduction policies may unintentionally drive demand toward other meat products, such as white meat, due to negative perceptions of the healthiness of plant-based alternatives. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Provide practical support for individuals undergoing dietary change	While policies encourage sustainable diets, they do not provide practical tools like meal plans, recipes, or visual guides to aid consumer transitions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Recommends creating accessible tools—such as recipes, meal plans, visual guides, and infographics—to help translate dietary guidelines into practical, everyday actions. These resources can support individuals in making informed, sustainable food choices by demonstrating how to implement the guidelines in realistic and appealing ways. (Culliford, Bradbury & Medici, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Use health-focused messaging to promote sustainable dietary change	Policies focus on environmental messaging, but emphasising health benefits could be a more effective motivator for dietary shifts.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Integrate sustainability into education and school food programmes: Revise school curricula to incorporate up-to-date evidence on sustainable diets, emphasising the connections between food choices, climate action, and health outcomes. Complement this by implementing sustainable and nutritious school meal programs that model environmentally responsible eating habits, helping to normalize healthy, climate-friendly diets from an early age. (McBey, Rothenberg, Cleland et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Co-benefits of policy alignment: Opportunities exist to align health and sustainability goals, particularly through meat reduction strategies (Stakeholder Meeting 9).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“To ensure that an average reduction in meat and dairy consumption is compatible with healthy diets and ideally ensure positive impacts on health and nutrition.“ (Stakeholder Workshop 4).
Tackle misinformation about diet and climate impacts	Many people doubt that reducing meat consumption is an effective climate action, believing other behaviours (e.g., reducing plastic use) are more impactful. Improved communication and avoiding oversimplification are needed.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Increased awareness: Over the last decade, public awareness of sustainable diets and their environmental impacts has grown. However, this increase is uneven across different socioeconomic groups. Persistent barriers: Despite increased awareness, barriers to reducing meat consumption—such as cultural norms, cost, and scepticism about meat alternatives—persist. Dietary change resistance: Many still perceive actions like reducing meat consumption as less impactful compared to other actions (e.g., reducing plastic use). (Cleland, McBey, Darlene et al., 2025).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Misinformation in terms of the public health impacts of changing diets. Communication needs to be clearer. Nuance around processing being seen as unhealthy and organic as healthy.” (Workshop 3).
Reframe public understanding of protein needs	Public understanding of protein needs is often skewed, reinforcing resistance to reducing meat consumption.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Across all stages of the family lifecycle, continued meat consumption was frequently justified by the belief that individuals require nutrients found in meat, such as iron and protein. These nutritional reflections were typically not grounded in scientific evidence but were instead based on ingrained beliefs shaped by social upbringing, rather than informed by alternative or external sources of information. (Kemper, 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Overemphasis on protein requirements contributes to resistance against reducing meat consumption. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Strengthen consumer awareness of food provenance	Many consumers are unaware of where their food comes from, weakening narratives around food sovereignty and local sourcing.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Consumers often lack awareness of food provenance, challenging narratives around food sovereignty. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Empower consumers to make sustainable food choices	Providing consumers with the right information and tools can support the adoption of more sustainable eating habits.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Encouraging consumers to make informed dietary choices can enhance their ability to adopt sustainable eating habits. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Strengthen proactive public engagement in dietary change efforts	Providing early, transparent information to shape public discourse and build informed support for food system changes.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Reviews research on how providing information about the impact of meat consumption and the benefits of meat substitutes positively affects respondents in China and the US. This information increases their intentions to support meat reduction policies, including more costly measures like a meat tax. (Bryant, Couture, Ross, et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Inoculation-plant information ahead of public debate.” (Workshop 1).
Strengthen public health and policy support for sustainable dietary shifts	Public health campaigns and food policies lack coordinated efforts to actively promote widespread transitions to sustainable diets.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Policy Coordination: Highlights regional land use planning but provides limited discussion on integrating dietary policy into broader climate and health strategies. (Reay, Warnatzsch, Craig, et al., 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Misalignment between climate, health, and food policies. Current policy frameworks lack coherence, creating conflicting objectives. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Balance individual responsibility with systemic food system change	Policies often overemphasise personal responsibility for diet change, while systemic food environment shifts are more effective and less stigmatising.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Challenges the overemphasis on individual behaviour change as the primary solution to sustainability and public health issues. Instead, it advocates for a shift toward structural and policy-driven approaches that facilitate collective action and address the root causes embedded in social, economic, and environmental systems. By focusing on systemic transformation, such as changes in food infrastructure, regulation, and institutional practices, this approach underscores the need for environments that enable and sustain more equitable and widespread change beyond individual responsibility. (Meyerricks & White, 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Policies often overemphasize individual responsibility for dietary choices, while structural food environment changes are more effective and less stigmatizing. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Current resilience strategies rely on individuals to be able to prepare themselves, rather than creating a robust food system within Scotland.” (Workshop 1).
Encourage social norm-based approaches to dietary change	Policies do not leverage peer influence to normalise reduced meat consumption and encourage widespread dietary shifts.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Reviews interventions aimed at reducing meat consumption, categorising them into personal, socio-cultural, and external factors. Personal interventions include educational campaigns, emotionally framed messages, and skill-building (e.g., vegetarian cooking courses). Socio-cultural factors involve changing social norms and addressing cultural resistance to plant-based diets. Opportunities for promoting social norms around sustainable diets through public campaigns and community programmes. (Kwasny, Dobernig & Riefler, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Gender norms influence dietary choices, with meat consumption often associated with masculinity, creating barriers to plant-based diets. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Need to make climate-friendly diets the norm? Need long term changes.” (Workshop 1).
Improve understanding of the long-term impacts of dietary shifts	Most studies focus on short-term dietary changes without exploring the effectiveness of multi-pronged interventions over time.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Explores the nutritional and behavioural implications of substituting plant-based proteins for animal proteins in Scotland, using household purchase data. Identifies price sensitivity as a driver of dietary change but does not address long-term behavioural adoption or resistance. (Dogbe, Wang & Revoredo-Giha, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Address the prioritisation of cost and convenience over sustainability in food choices	Sustainability concerns are often secondary to cost and convenience when consumers make food choices.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Examined the effects of decreasing meat and dairy intake on nutrient consumption and disease risk among Scottish adults. Although many individuals express genuine concern for sustainability and environmental impact, these values are often compromised by practical considerations, particularly cost and convenience. In everyday decision-making, affordability and ease of access tend to take precedence, revealing a gap between environmental awareness and actionable behaviour. This highlights the need for policies and systems that make sustainable choices more accessible, affordable, and integrated into daily life. (Food Standards Scotland (FSS), 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Inability to pay for things- poverty in working population Hard to get to nutrition when you have long term challenge Need for equipment for prep; time-knowledge-cost No freedom of choice in these circumstances Good food is very inaccessible to those with nothing (not home and skills).” (Workshop 1).
Normalise reduced meat consumption in everyday diets	The recommended limit of 70g per day for red and processed meat in Scotland is often misinterpreted as a dietary requirement rather than a maximum, which can undermine efforts to normalise lower meat consumption.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	It is important to emphasise that the UK recommendation of a maximum of 70g/day on average is a recommendation for individuals, not a population average, and a wide range of intakes for red and processed meat has been reported, for example, a range of 0–208g/day in men aged 19–64 years. (Spiro, Hill & Stanner, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	The recommended 70g per day of red meat is often seen as a dietary requirement rather than a maximum limit, affecting efforts to normalise lower meat consumption. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“We also find that people are often not very clear about health benefits of a reduction especially in red meat consumption and the role of protein etc…. This is further confused by the NHS recommendation of 70g red meat, which can be misunderstood as a required minimum, rather than a maximum.” (Workshop 3).
Assess the effectiveness of dietary behaviour change campaigns	Large-scale dietary campaigns often fail to drive change, with community-based, trusted sources being more impactful.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Examined how often people seek, trust, and rely on 22 different sources of diet and nutrition information when making dietary changes. While sources like health websites, internet searches, and diet books were most frequently consulted, participants reported the highest trust in nutrition scientists, professionals, and scientific journals. This highlights a disconnect between popularity and trustworthiness. Trust, more than frequency of use, was a stronger predictor of influence on dietary change. Sources deemed less trustworthy were less likely to be relied upon, and seeking information alone didn’t always lead to effective dietary shifts. These patterns varied across sources. (Ruani, Reiss & Kalea, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Blanket dietary change campaigns are often ineffective and challenging to evaluate. For greater impact, information should come from trusted, community-based sources. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Evaluate the relative impacts of different behavioural interventions on food choices	Strategies like calorie labelling have shown limited effectiveness in driving significant dietary change.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	There are currently no plans to introduce a mandatory eco-labelling scheme, nor is the government set to endorse any existing or new framework. This decision reflects the limited evidence to date that eco-labels significantly influence consumer or business behaviour at the point of sale (Defra, 2024). Nonetheless, similar to the role nutrition labelling has played, eco-labelling could potentially encourage some level of product reformulation by manufacturers. (Spiro, Hill, & Stanner, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Behavioural interventions like calorie labelling have limited impact on dietary habits. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Shape food environments to promote healthier and more sustainable choices	Addressing the knowledge-action gap through nudging strategies and food system interventions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Behavioural nudges, such as making vegetarian options the default choice on menus, have been shown to significantly reduce meat consumption, with studies reporting reductions ranging from 20% to as high as 85%. These strategies work by subtly reshaping consumer choice environments, making plant-based selections more accessible and socially normative without restricting individual freedom. (Mitev, Portes, Osman et al., 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Food environments, choice, nudging?…“Knowledge-action gap.” (Workshop 3).
Promote sustainable everyday eating habits	Promote practical, habitual dietary shifts that are sustainable and health-supportive over the long term.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Encouraging consumers to make informed dietary choices can enhance their ability to adopt sustainable eating habits. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Healthy “enough” (vis-à-vis everyday diets).” “Habits of eating.” (Workshop 1).
Rethink policy approaches to dietary change	Shifting from fear-based, top-down behaviour change strategies to more effective and inclusive policy tools.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Examines the comparative evolution of rural development policies and Local Action Groups (LAGs) within a multi-level governance (MLG) framework. It focuses on two UK cases (Argyll and the Islands in Scotland; Coast, Wolds, Wetlands and Waterways in England) and two Italian cases (Delta 2000 in Emilia-Romagna; Capo Santa Maria di Leuca in Puglia). Findings highlight how LAGs’ mechanisms, outcomes, and partnerships vary, but consistently demonstrate that while EU funding and policy frameworks provide critical support, it is the bottom-up leadership of local actors that most significantly drives success in rural development initiatives. (Gargano, 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“The tools and language of policy Behaviour change is top-down using fear” (Workshop 1).

Appendix J: Extended Technological analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Key Theme	Area For Policy Development
1: Data Gaps and Infrastructure for Policy Monitoring
Develop a comprehensive monitoring framework for sustainable diets	There is no structured system to track the effects of dietary shifts on emissions, health, food security, biodiversity, and sustainability, limiting policy effectiveness.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Lack of Clear Enforcement Mechanisms for Emission Reductions The 30% agricultural emissions reduction target (by 2032) is ambitious, but the text does not specify: How reductions will be enforced (e.g., penalties for non-compliance vs. voluntary incentives). Sector-specific targets for beef, sheep, dairy, and arable farming. How progress will be measured and verified beyond voluntary reporting. Policy Gap: Scotland lacks a detailed, binding framework for ensuring compliance with emission reductions in agriculture. Policy Need: Develop a carbon budgeting system for farms with clear compliance measures, incentives, and accountability mechanisms. Scottish Government, n.d.).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Lack of data. Need to look at what is the actual impact of farming on climate in Scotland – what are the negatives we currently have and then learning from best practise to bring others on that journey. using real Scottish data to drive change. it should go wider than GHGs. its about biodiversity, habitat and plant protection and ecosystem, water use and flood management, soil quality, animal welfare etc. baselining standards – over 170 farms there are some that are already at net zero, or close.” (Workshop 3).
Establish a standardised data infrastructure to support policy integration	The lack of a unified system to collect, share, and analyse food system data hinders the integration of climate, health, and sustainability goals into policy decisions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Emissions Estimation Uncertainty: The report notes significant variability in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions estimates for food consumed in Scotland, partly due to differences in accounting for land use change and specific food consumption patterns. Improved data accuracy, especially for children and region-specific consumption, could strengthen policy targeting emissions from specific food groups. Data Gaps in Food Production Origins: The report identifies a need for detailed information on the origins of foods consumed in Scotland. This information is essential for accurately attributing emissions, particularly as some Scottish produce is processed outside Scotland before being reimported for local consumption. Policy could address this by improving traceability in food supply chains Integration of Post-Retail Emissions: Only some models account for emissions from consumer actions, such as energy used in cooking or food waste. Policy could incentivize behaviours that reduce these post-retail emissions, such as promoting energy-efficient cooking practices and reducing food waste at home. (Jaacks, Frank, Vonderschmidt et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Data for policy tracking: Robust data systems are needed to inform policy decisions and track their effectiveness over time. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Within Scottish Government: Make climate & diet part of a Good Food Nation objective. Include dietary change as one of Scotland’s climate goals. Work for better join up across policy areas, work against narrowness. Make this a priority for multiple departments.” (Workshop 4).
Set clear targets and indicators for sustainable diet policies	The absence of effective metrics makes it difficult to evaluate the impact of policies on health, emissions reduction, and food system sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	No Specific Emissions Targets for Dairy Farming Scotland has national climate targets but lacks dairy-specific GHG reduction goals. Policy intervention: Develop dairy sector-specific emissions reduction targets tied to efficiency improvements. Infrastructure and Data Challenges Limited data collection on methane emissions at the farm level makes tracking improvements difficult. Policy intervention: Expand research funding and create national livestock emissions databases. (Ferguson, Bowen, McNicol et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Measuring dietary change: Identifying effective metrics to measure progress in dietary change is a key challenge. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Enhance monitoring and metrics for agroecological practices	The absence of clear indicators for assessing agroecology’s environmental, economic, and social performance limits its policy integration, while the lack of systematic data collection prevents evidence-based policymaking for sustainable farming transitions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Limited Research on the Economic Viability of Agroecology No comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of agroecological farming vs. conventional farming in Scotland. Need for financial models that demonstrate the long-term resilience benefits of agroecology. Set Clear Targets for Sustainable Diets and Agriculture Introduce climate-aligned dietary guidelines, including reduced red meat and dairy consumption. Support horticulture expansion to increase domestic fruit, vegetable, and pulse production. Align agroecology with Scotland’s Circular Economy and Net-Zero strategies (Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Lots of local producers-just not captured in the figures. Recognising the informal sectors e.g., farm shops, allotments.” (Workshop 1).
Improve industry accountability through transparent data reporting	The absence of clear industry accountability frameworks hinders progress toward aligning food production and retail practices with dietary and sustainability targets.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Data and Accountability: The need for robust, accessible data and transparent mechanisms to hold stakeholders accountable is underdeveloped in policy. (Scottish Government, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Data for policy tracking: Robust data systems are needed to inform policy decisions and track their effectiveness over time. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Develop robust metrics for tracking dietary change and emissions reduction	The absence of standardised indicators makes it difficult to assess the climate impact of dietary shifts and monitor progress toward emissions reduction goals.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Variability in Emissions Estimates Across food based dietary guidelines (FBDGs): Highlights the wide range of emissions reductions attributed to different dietary guidelines, which vary due to methodological differences across models. This variability can make it challenging to establish standardized or widely accepted climate benchmarks within FBDGs, which may complicate Scotland’s efforts to adopt clear, evidence-based climate targets. (Tregear, Morgan, Spence et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Measuring dietary change: Identifying effective metrics to measure progress in dietary change is a key challenge. (Stakeholder Meeting 2).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Expand broadband access to enable precision agriculture	Poor broadband connectivity in rural areas restricts the adoption of connected animal sensors and precision farming technologies, reducing agricultural efficiency.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Connectivity and Infrastructure Barriers to Digital Agriculture: Many rural areas lack broadband access, preventing the adoption of connected animal sensors and precision agriculture. Investment in rural digital infrastructure is essential. (Scottish Government, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
2: Agricultural Emissions and Climate Reporting
Improve agricultural emissions reporting and accountability	Existing reporting mechanisms do not adequately integrate climate-smart farming technologies, reducing accountability and hindering emissions tracking.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Monitoring and Accountability: Annual progress reporting on agricultural emissions reductions must be strengthened. Policies should integrate climate-smart farming technology adoption into monitoring frameworks. (Scottish Government, n.d.)
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Establish a standardised carbon footprinting and emissions tracking system	The inconsistent use of carbon calculators and the absence of methane emissions data at the farm level, combined with inconsistent GHG emissions calculation methods, make it difficult to assess and mitigate agricultural emissions effectively.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Developing a standardised carbon footprinting tool Farmers currently use multiple, inconsistent carbon calculators. Recommendation: Create a universal farm carbon calculator, integrated with existing farm software and databases. Nourish Scotland (2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops
Reassess methane accounting methods and livestock emissions data	Methane calculations should be reviewed due to methane’s short atmospheric half-life. There is also a need to ensure fair assessments of emissions from lamb and beef production, particularly in extensive grazing systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Need to review data that exists e.g. lamb emission data – lamb is just below beef in terms of emissions, which is unusual as they are the most extensively reared. Environmental impact takes into account amount of land you are using and in NZ where herd size is bigger but they are confined to smaller areas and use hard feed, and somehow they are more emission friendly? it seems Scotland is penalised for highland roaming. i think we need to get a new calculation for this.” (Workshop 3).
Define specific emissions reduction goals for beef production	While Scotland has national emissions targets, it lacks sector-specific goals for beef production, a major contributor to agricultural emissions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	No Sector-Specific GHG Reduction Targets for Beef Farming While Scotland has national emissions targets, no specific reduction goals exist for beef production. Policy intervention: Develop beef-sector-specific climate goals, aligning with methane reduction strategies. (McNicol, Bowen, Ferguson et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Develop a centralised database for methane efficiency traits in livestock	Unlike Ireland’s cattle breeding data system, Scotland lacks an integrated tool to track genetic progress in methane reduction, limiting breeding efficiency. ^[13]
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Scotland lacks a centralised database for methane traits in livestock, like the Irish Cattle Breeding Federation (ICBF). Integration with existing breeding tools like ScotEID and EGENES is needed to track genetic progress, alongside cross-country collaboration to enhance data sharing and breeding efficiency (Jenkins, Herold, de Mendonça et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Increase farmer awareness and uptake of precision livestock farming (PLF) technologies	Many farmers do not view PLF tools as effective for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, limiting their adoption despite proven environmental benefits.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Many farmers do not perceive PLF tools as effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction strategies, despite their proven benefits, limiting adoption. Policy intervention: Increase extension services, training programs, and peer-to-peer learning initiatives. (Ferguson, Bowen, McNicol et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Enhance technological capacity for supply chain resilience against climate disruptions	The potential of technology to improve the resilience of food supply chains against climate-related disruptions remains underutilised.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Technology for Supply Chain Resilience: The potential of emerging and existing technologies to strengthen the resilience of food supply chains in the face of climate-related disruptions remains significantly underexplored and underutilised. Digital tools, data analytics, automation, and innovations offer opportunities to improve monitoring, forecasting, and responsiveness across the supply chain. However, their application in building climate resilience is still limited, and greater attention is needed to scale up these solutions and integrate them into policy and practice. (Stakeholder Meeting 8).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
3. Food Consumption and Emissions Attribution Issues
Improve food consumption data accuracy for policy evaluation	High-emission foods like meat and dairy are often underreported in dietary assessments, limiting the accuracy of policy evaluations.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Recognising underreporting issues, especially for high-emission foods like meat and dairy, could guide improvements in dietary assessment methods Underreporting in Food Consumption Data: Recognizing underreporting issues, especially for high-emission foods like meat and dairy, could guide improvements in dietary assessment methods. Policies might encourage better data collection and reporting to ensure more accurate emissions assessments and tailored dietary interventions. (Jaacks, Frank, Vonderschmidt et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Enhance food origin tracking for accurate emissions attribution	The absence of comprehensive tracking for imported and processed Scottish foods makes it difficult to develop precise climate policies.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Need for comprehensive information on the origins of foods consumed in Scotland to improve emissions accounting. The absence of detailed data, particularly for Scottish produce that is processed abroad and reimported, hinders accurate emissions attribution and the development of effective climate policies. (Jaacks, Frank, Vonderschmidt et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Scottish solutions and data are needed to tackle climate change in Scotland. We need national data and should stop using international data for GHGE and water use for our modelling.” (Workshop 1).
Increase the granularity of Scotland’s net-zero emissions data	Scotland’s emissions tracking system focuses on high-level data without accounting for regional variations, reducing policy precision.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Need for comprehensive information on the origins of foods consumed in Scotland to improve emissions accounting. The absence of detailed data, particularly for Scottish produce that is processed abroad and reimported, hinders accurate emissions attribution and the development of effective climate policies Data Gaps in Food Production Origins: The report identifies a need for detailed information on the origins of foods consumed in Scotland. This information is essential for accurately attributing emissions, particularly as some Scottish produce is processed outside Scotland before being reimported for local consumption. Policy could address this by improving traceability in food supply chains. (Jaacks, Frank, Vonderschmidt et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Assess the sustainability impacts of plant-based alternatives	Clear methodologies are required to compare the sustainability of plant-based meat alternatives with traditional meat products.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Assessing Sustainability of Plant-Based Alternatives: Robust and transparent methodologies are urgently needed to assess the sustainability of plant-based meat alternatives in comparison to conventional meat products. Current assessment approaches often vary widely in scope and metrics, making it difficult to draw consistent conclusions about environmental, nutritional, and socio-economic impacts. Developing standardised frameworks would enable clearer comparisons, guide consumers and policymakers, and support innovation in the alternative protein sector. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Use digital tools to promote local, ethical, and sustainable food choices	Encourage consumers to connect with local suppliers and assess animal welfare and product quality through observable online rating systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Use digital shopping to encourage people to find and use local suppliers of animal produce and check welfare/quality – like a Tripadvisor score.” (Workshop 1).
Expand infrastructure and technical support for local food systems	There is inadequate policy support for expanding infrastructure and providing technical assistance to scale up local and regional food production.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	There is currently a lack of dedicated funding mechanisms or targeted incentives to support the scaling up of low-carbon technologies within food production and processing. This gap limits the widespread adoption of innovations that could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the sector. Without strategic investment and policy support, many promising technologies remain at the pilot or early adoption stage, limiting their potential to contribute to national climate goals and a more sustainable food system. (Sovacool, Bazilian, Griffiths et al., 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–

Appendix K: Extended Legal analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Key Theme	Area For Policy Development
1. Regulatory Gaps in Sustainable Food Systems and Supply Chains
Strengthen regulation and incentives for low-carbon food production	There are no targeted resources, tax benefits, or regulatory measures to encourage low-carbon food production, limiting sustainability efforts.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Lack of specific policies to incentivise low-carbon food production or regulate high-emission food products. The absence of targeted subsidies, tax benefits, or regulatory measures limits the transition to more sustainable food systems and weakens efforts to reduce the environmental impact of food production and consumption. (Milner, Green, Dangour et al. (2015).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Enhance the polluter-pays principle and support for sustainable farming	Inadequate enforcement of environmental accountability and limited financial support for farmers transitioning to sustainable practices slow climate-resilient food system reforms.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Enforcement of the polluter-pays principle^[14] remains inadequate, with limited financial incentives and regulatory measures to ensure industry accountability. Additionally, there is insufficient support for farmers transitioning to environmentally sustainable practices, limiting progress toward a more climate-resilient food system. (Food Farming & Countryside Commission (FFCC), 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Ensure fair and transparent supply chains	Weak regulations allow power imbalances between large corporations and small producers to persist, reinforcing supply chain inequalities and environmental harm. Regulating supply chains avoids the barrier of relying on voluntary behaviour change.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Regulatory gaps constrain efforts to ensure fairness and transparency in supply chains, particularly in addressing power imbalances between large corporations and small producers. Weak enforcement of fair practices within the food supply chain sustains inequalities and contributes to environmental harm. (Food, Farming and Countryside Commission (FFCC), 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Expand the reach of the Good Food Nation (Scotland) Act	The GFN Act primarily governs public sector food policies but lacks mechanisms to regulate supermarkets, food manufacturers, and large-scale agricultural producers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Limited Leverage Over the Private Sector: The GFN Act focuses primarily on public sector food policy but does not impose obligations on supermarkets, food manufacturers, or large-scale agricultural producers. Without mandatory private sector participation, major food system emissions and supply chain issues may remain unaddressed. (Brennan, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Clarify the role of carbon markets in agriculture	Farmers struggle to engage in carbon markets due to unclear regulations, unstable pricing, and a lack of standardised methodologies.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Scottish farmers have limited engagement with carbon markets due to a lack of standardised methodologies, clear regulations, and stable pricing mechanisms. This uncertainty prevents broader participation, reducing opportunities for farmers to benefit financially from carbon sequestration efforts and limiting the agricultural sector’s contribution to climate mitigation. (Baker, Conquest & Moxey, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Enhance retailer accountability in a sustainable food system	Retailers are not required to report Scope 3 emissions from the products they buy and sell, limiting accountability for sustainability impacts.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Regulatory Influence and Future Expectations: i. Some firms voluntarily disclose their emissions through the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi). ii. While there is currently no legal requirement to reduce Scope 3 emissions, emerging policy signals indicate that more stringent regulations are likely in the future. (Baker, Conquest & Moxey, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Support local and regenerative food production	Local food systems face barriers such as limited land and sea access and complex licensing requirements that disadvantage smaller producers.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	“Access to land, access to seas, complex licensing systems that play into the hands of multinational corporations who have the means and expertise to complete these.” (Workshop 1).
2: Regulation of Food Marketing, Composition, and Consumer Information
Strengthen regulation of unhealthy food promotions	Weak marketing rules allow unhealthy food advertising that worsens health inequalities. Stronger regulation and fiscal measures are needed to shift sales toward healthier, sustainable options.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Impact of food promotions on diet: Unhealthy foods are heavily promoted, influencing consumer choices and increasing the purchase of unhealthy items. Children in lower-income areas are more exposed to unhealthy food marketing and have higher childhood obesity rates. Cost-of-living pressures have made nutritious food less affordable, worsening dietary inequalities. Weak oversight of marketing and promotional strategies for less healthy food options allows widespread exposure, particularly in vulnerable communities. This lack of regulation risks exacerbating health inequalities by reinforcing dietary patterns linked to poor health outcomes. (Public Health Scotland (PHS), 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Establish nutritional and environmental standards for out-of-home food	The absence of comprehensive regulations for food sold in restaurants, cafes, and takeaways weakens policy efforts to promote healthier and more sustainable dietary habits. There is also a lack of sufficient planning levers to regulate food outlets.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Sustainability Measures: There is a lack of policies addressing the environmental impacts of takeaway packaging and food delivery systems. Nutritional Standards for Out-of-Home (OOH) Foods Regulation of high-calorie, high-salt, and high-sugar foods sold out-of-home remains limited. Promotion Regulation Oversight of promotions for less healthy food options—particularly in quick service restaurants (QSRs)—is weak. Equity in Access Current policies do not adequately ensure that healthier OOH food options are affordable and accessible for lower-income communities. (Food Standards Scotland (FSS), 2021b).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Mandate reformulation requirements for unhealthy foods	The reliance on voluntary industry commitments for food reformulation weakens public health efforts, as there are no legal obligations for reducing unhealthy ingredients.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The UK and Scottish Governments rely on voluntary industry measures for food reformulation, with no legal obligation for companies to reduce unhealthy ingredients. This weakens efforts to improve public health and reduce diet-related diseases, leaving progress dependent on inconsistent voluntary compliance. Lack of mandatory reformulation: The UK and Scottish Governments support mandatory reformulation only if voluntary efforts fail. Currently, there is no legal requirement for companies to reformulate unhealthy foods. (Obesity Action Scotland (OAS), 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Implement carbon footprint labelling for food	There are currently no mandatory requirements for carbon footprint labelling on food products, which limits consumers’ ability to make informed, low-emission dietary choices.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Regulation and Accountability a. Despite growing emphasis on emissions reduction, there are no mandatory requirements for carbon footprint labelling on food products, limiting consumers’ ability to make informed low-emission choices. b. Regulatory mechanisms to ensure business compliance with carbon labelling, food waste reduction, and sustainable practices remain weak. (Climate Change Committee, 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Ensure the right to adequate nutrition	Dietary policies must uphold human rights by ensuring all populations, particularly marginalised communities, have equitable access to nutritious food.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Ensuring the right to adequate nutrition: Issues surrounding the right to adequate nutrition, particularly for marginalized communities, have been highlighted. Dietary policies must align with human rights obligations to ensure equitable access to nutritious food for all populations. (Stakeholder Meeting 4).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Address gaps in food standards, including non-dairy milk fortification	The absence of mandatory fortification for non-dairy milk alternatives raises concerns about potential nutritional inadequacies for populations relying on these products as dairy substitutes.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Gaps in food standards, including non-dairy milk fortification: There are gaps in regulatory frameworks related to food standards, including the lack of mandatory fortification for non-dairy milk alternatives. This may contribute to nutritional inadequacies among populations that rely on these products as dairy substitutes. (Stakeholder Meeting 13).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
3: Legal and Governance Barriers to Policy Implementation
Align devolved and UK dietary policies	Legal complexities in the division of powers create difficulties in developing cohesive dietary and climate policies across the UK, leading to inconsistencies between devolved administrations and the UK Government.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Challenges in aligning devolved and UK dietary policies: Aligning diet and climate policies between devolved administrations (e.g., Scotland) and the UK Government presents legal challenges. The division of powers complicates the development of cohesive dietary policies, resulting in inconsistent approaches across the UK. (Stakeholder Meeting 9).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
Manage legal risks from dietary shifts	There are concerns that dietary guidelines encouraging reduced meat and dairy consumption could lead to nutrient deficiencies, creating potential legal risks if public health is adversely affected.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Legal risks from unintended nutritional deficiencies: Stakeholders have raised concerns about potential legal risks if dietary guidelines inadvertently lead to health issues, such as nutrient deficiencies. This is particularly relevant with blanket recommendations to reduce meat and dairy consumption without considering adequate nutritional alternatives. (Stakeholder Meeting 9).
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–
4: Administrative and Market Challenges in Sustainable Agriculture
Evaluate the effectiveness of carbon audits in agriculture	While carbon audits for farmers are encouraged, they lack enforceable targets or evidence of significant emissions reductions, making them more bureaucratic than effective.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Limited Impact of Carbon Audits: There is no clear evidence that carbon audits have led to significant emission reductions in Scottish agriculture. Administrative Burden and Costs: Farmers must provide carbon data to multiple buyers, leading to high reporting demands. Uncertainty About Market-Based Carbon Incentives: Voluntary carbon credit markets are underdeveloped, leading to hesitation from farmers. (Baker, Conquest & Moxey (2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Workshops	–

Appendix L: Extended Environmental analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Key Theme	Area For Policy Development
1. Land Use, Tenure, and Access for Sustainable Agriculture
Improve land tenure security for community food systems	Temporary land use agreements create instability for community gardens, while bureaucratic hurdles, insecure tenure, and limited land availability continue to restrict community food-growing efforts, despite the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015.^[15]
Supporting evidence: Literature review	While the importance of secure land access for community gardens is acknowledged, the prevalence of temporary land use arrangements creates instability, limiting long-term planning and the sustainability of community-based food initiatives. (Meyerricks, & White, 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“Need community to take on land and community need funding to do so. There is something about learning from crofting practices in the context of a sustainable food system. Some challenges are related to the free market and the crofting regulation, the right to buy and the lack of regulation.” (Workshop 4).
Support new agroecological farmers with land and financial access	New farmers struggle to secure land and financial resources, limiting the transition to sustainable farming systems.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Limited access to secure land tenure and financial support remains a significant barrier for new entrants into farming, even though this group is often more open to adopting agroecological and sustainable practices. Addressing these access issues is essential to enable a new generation of climate-conscious farmers. (Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Land ownership and affordability issues: Competition and rising land costs are pricing out farmers, limiting opportunities for sustainable agricultural transitions. (Stakeholder Meeting 1).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	–
Strengthen strategic oversight for land use change	Unregulated forestry expansion risks displacing agricultural land without a public interest test or requirements for net carbon sequestration assessment.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Market-driven forestry expansion poses a risk of displacing agricultural land without adequate strategic oversight. There is currently no requirement for a “public interest test” to assess the impact of afforestation on farming, nor a mandate for large forestry projects to demonstrate long-term net carbon sequestration, limiting sustainable land use planning and balance between agriculture and forestry. (Scottish Government, 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“The ARCZero^[16] pilot in Northern Ireland showed that well managed grazing land stores more carbon in the soil and promotes more biodiversity than forestry. SG should account for this when planning future goals for land use.” (Workshop 3).
Develop alternative land use strategies for rough grazing areas	There is no clear plan for repurposing Scotland’s vast rough grazing areas, limiting sustainable land management and biodiversity conservation. Livestock farming remains the only viable option for some land.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	There is no clear plan for repurposing the 60% of Scotland’s rough grazing land that may not be suitable for crop production. The absence of strategic land use policies limits opportunities for sustainable land management, climate mitigation, and biodiversity conservation. (Kennedy, Clark, Stewart et al., 2025).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“Reducing livestock farming=farming concerns and biodiversity concerns-livestock farming only viable thing for certain land.” (Workshop 1).
Recognise the role of grazing land in carbon sequestration and biodiversity	Well-managed grazing land can sequester more carbon and support greater biodiversity than forestry, which should be considered in Scotland’s land-use planning.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Afforestation projects are viewed as potentially effective measures for carbon sequestration and therefore climate change mitigation. Much of the land in temperate regions suitable for afforestation is used for agriculture and consequently afforestation of farmland is frequently proposed. Landowners are commonly reluctant to sacrifice fertile land for purposes other than food and feed production. In Scotland’s uplands, grazed pastures are a common land use that could be put under pressure by demands for woodland planting. This chapter explores how farm woodland planting for carbon sequestration and biofuel production affects livestock output. The concepts presented show that there is great potential for integrating agriculture and forestry to achieve environmental benefits without compromising productivity. (Beckert, Smith & Chapman, 2016).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“The ARCZero pilot in Northern Ireland showed that well managed grazing land stores more carbon in the soil and promotes more biodiversity than forestry. SG should account for this when planning future goals for land use.” (Workshop 3).
Balance livestock reduction with land use trade-offs	With more than 85% of Scottish farmland classified as ‘Less Favoured Area’ (LFA) and often unsuitable for plant protein cultivation, reducing livestock could disrupt feed crop markets and impact farm incomes. Addressing mixed messages on CO₂ impacts of extensively grazed grasslands versus forestry is needed while ensuring food production resilience in a changing climate.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Afforestation is widely regarded as a promising strategy for carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. However, much of the land suitable for afforestation in temperate regions is already used for agriculture, leading to frequent proposals for planting trees on farmland. Landowners are often hesitant to give up productive land traditionally used for food and feed. In Scotland’s uplands, where grazed pasture is common, there is particular concern about the impact of woodland expansion on livestock farming. This article examines how woodland planting for carbon sequestration and biofuel production can influence livestock output. It highlights the significant potential for integrating forestry and agriculture in ways that deliver environmental benefits without reducing overall productivity. (Beckert, Smith & Chapman, 2016).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“Don’t forget >85% of Scottish farmland is ‘less favoured’ so mostly cannot be used to grow plant proteins. Also poor quality crops are sold for animal feed. A reduction in livestock will impact this market and reduce farm incomes.” (Workshop 3).
Acknowledge biophysical limitations on agriculture	Natural constraints determine what crops can be grown in different regions, influencing food production and sustainability.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	In Scotland, natural constraints such as climate, soil quality, altitude, and water availability significantly shape agricultural decisions—especially regarding what crops can be grown and where. These physical limitations, in combination with socio-economic and policy considerations, influence both food production capacity and agricultural sustainability. This article reviews how regional climate and infrastructure influence where legumes can be grown, considering their role in sustainable agriculture. (Wiltshire, Freeman, Willcocks et al., 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“Biophysical constraints on what can be grown. Lobby groups preserving industries. Reputation of Scottish food producers.” (Workshop 1).
2. Areas for Policy Development in Agricultural Climate Mitigation and Adaptation
Expand agricultural climate policies beyond food emissions	Current policies measure emissions from specific foods but fail to consider how broader agricultural and food system changes could drive more effective climate mitigation.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Current assessments highlight emissions from specific foods but fail to consider the broader impact of systemic shifts in agricultural practices and food system transformations, limiting opportunities for comprehensive climate mitigation strategies. (Nneli, Revoredo-Giha & Dogbe, 2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	–
Avoid rebound effects in precision livestock farming (PLF) efficiency gains	Productivity improvements from PLF could inadvertently lead to higher total emissions if herd expansion offsets efficiency gains.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	There is a risk that productivity gains from Precision Livestock Farming (PLF) could lead to an overall increase in total emissions, as improved efficiency per unit could be offset by herd expansion. (McNicol, Bowen, Ferguson et al., 2024).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	–
Strengthen policy responses to climate risks in agriculture	Policies fail to address the financial impact of extreme weather on farming, lack strategies for water conservation, and fail to enforce improved soil management.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Current policies fail to sufficiently address the financial impacts of extreme weather on agriculture, particularly within the beef sector. Water scarcity risks remain unmanaged due to the lack of strategies for rainwater capture and groundwater conservation. Furthermore, despite increasing concerns about soil degradation, there are no clear policy requirements for improved soil management. SAC Consulting, n.d.).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Fragmented governance across Government divisions, leading to disjointed approaches to diet, climate, and health policies: Disjointed approaches to diet, climate, and health policies due to lack of coordinated structures. (Stakeholder Meeting 3).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	–
Integrate grazing land’s role in biodiversity and carbon capture	Policies fail to recognise the role of sustainable grazing systems in enhancing biodiversity and carbon sequestration.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Current policies do not fully acknowledge or integrate the potential role of grazing systems in supporting biodiversity and carbon sequestration. The absence of clear guidelines or incentives limits opportunities to enhance sustainable grazing practices that contribute to environmental and climate goals National Farmers Union Scotland (NFUS , n.d.).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	–
Address localised environmental impacts of intensive farming	While overall farming emissions may appear low across systems, specific regions with intensive agricultural activities experience significant localized environmental impacts.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	The use of nitrogen fertilisers in agriculture is a major contributor to nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions — a potent greenhouse gas. Reducing these emissions poses a significant global challenge, and doing so requires reliable methods for estimating N₂O output across different farming systems. Scientists commonly rely on biogeochemistry (BGC) models to estimate soil-based emissions, but these models can present difficulties: large-scale studies often lack local detail, while small-scale studies may not be widely applicable. In addition, many studies provide limited information on the reliability of their results. This study took a novel approach by focusing on eastern Scotland, a region with well-documented farming practices. Researchers applied a robust BGC model to assess N₂O emissions, nitrate (NO₃) leaching, and nitrogen uptake in crops such as barley, wheat, and oilseed rape. The high-resolution modelling revealed that although eastern Scotland’s intensive cropping systems are efficient, they exhibit elevated N₂O emission intensities per hectare, largely due to the use of synthetic fertilisers. (Myrgiotis, Williams, Rees et al., 2019).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Localised environmental impacts of emissions-intensive farming: While the overall environmental impact of farming may be low when averaged across systems, localized environmental impacts can be significant, particularly in areas with emissions-intensive agricultural activities. (Stakeholder Meeting 8).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	–
Balance environmental goals with socioeconomic sustainability	Environmental goals can coexist with job security and the sustainability of fragile communities, but current policy does not always reflect this balance.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	This study explores what it means to be a responsible farm business in today’s world, especially after COVID-19 and Brexit. Being a responsible business involves tackling poverty, inequality, and environmental harm, but different groups—like customers, the media, and global organisations—have different views on what that means. Farms are part of a complex rural system filled with tensions and contradictions. This research focuses on how farmers can understand and manage these tensions to run more responsible and sustainable businesses. Using data from one farm and interviews with five others in the same community, the study develops a framework to show how farmers balance competing demands. It looks at how farmers’ entrepreneurial mindset (or Entrepreneurial Orientation, EO) is shaped by experience and changing times. The study argues that good policies, informed by real-world farming experiences, can support responsible decision-making. (Smith, Duncan, Edward et al., 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“An acknowledgement that supporting our environment does not need to come at the expense of jobs or supporting fragile communities.” (Workshop 1).
Understand the complexities of meat production and consumption	Variations in where meat is produced and consumed across the UK and internationally influence territorial emissions differently, shaping the regional impacts of dietary change.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Highlights how territorial specialization in meat production and consumption across Europe creates uneven nitrogen and GHG burdens. Countries like the UK import much of their animal feed and meat, meaning dietary change impacts vary regionally based on local vs outsourced emissions. (Billen, Aguilera, Einarsson et al., 2021).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“Complexities around where especially meat is produced and where it is consumed across the UK and internationally. Changes in diet in different regions will affect territorial emissions differently.” (Stakeholder Workshop 3).
Rethink agri-tech and livestock systems for sustainability	Climate and environmental protection should focus on transforming food systems and reducing reliance on livestock feed crops like soy, rather than shifting all animals indoors.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	UK livestock systems rely heavily on imported soy. Holmes proposes a shift to legume-supported agroecology, noting this is better for soil, climate, and economic sovereignty. (Holmes, 2018).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“Issues around agri tech and comms being that to protect climate and the environment, we do not need to put all animals indoors, rather than addressing the food systems themselves and the dependence we have on livestock production and the impact of feeding livestock e.g. deforestation to produce soy that only goes to feed livestock.” (Workshop 3).
Ensure net zero goals align with animal welfare standards	Efforts to intensify food production for climate targets must not compromise animal welfare standards.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Climate change affects agriculture in many different ways. The CCC advises that adaptation efforts should address risks such as flooding, heavier rainfall, and rising temperatures. It also recommends improving the sector’s ability to handle new challenges like shifting pest and disease patterns. These climate impacts will affect multiple areas of farming. For instance, both crops and livestock will face heat stress and a rise in pests and diseases due to warmer, wetter conditions. Waterlogged soils can reduce crop yields, while livestock may suffer from lower welfare, affecting fertility and production, such as milk yields. (Jenkins, Avis, Willcocks et al., (2023).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“Animal welfare: Intensifying food production to meet net zero goals could come at the expense of animal welfare.” (Workshop 4).
3: Environmental Impacts and Food Systems
Address the environmental impact of ultra-processed foods	Ultra-processed foods, including those from large fast-food chains, often have a high environmental footprint and run counter to principles of sustainable food culture.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Global food systems are increasingly unsustainable for human health, the environment, animal welfare, biodiversity, food culture, social equity, and small-scale farmers. While the high consumption of animal-based foods has long been seen as a key contributor to this problem, growing attention is now being paid to the role of ultra-processed foods (UPFs). This review examines whether concerns about UPFs are valid. It looks at the typical ingredients and additives in UPFs and the farming practices used to produce them. The findings show that UPFs are closely linked to emissions-intensive farming and livestock systems, and they negatively impact nearly every aspect of food system sustainability. This is largely due to the global spread of cheap, highly processed products made from low-cost ingredients. Although UPFs generally have lower greenhouse gas emissions than conventional meat and dairy, especially those low in animal-based calories, reducing UPF consumption—without replacing it with other energy-dense foods—can still lead to significant environmental benefits. To improve sustainability, the review recommends cutting back on UPFs and shifting toward minimally processed, seasonal, organic, and locally produced foods. (Fardet & Rock, 2020).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	Environmental impact of ultra-processed foods: Ultra-processed foods, such as those offered by large fast-food chains (e.g., Domino’s Pizza), are often inconsistent with the principles of a sustainable food culture due to their high environmental footprint. (Stakeholder Meeting 11).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	–
Strengthen food system resilience against climate and supply risks	Enhancing farm resilience to weather extremes, power disruptions, and crop variability by reconsidering older, more resilient crop varieties, reducing dependence on a limited range of crops, and growing local varieties better suited to conditions. Greater policy focus is needed on planning and adaptation strategies to support farmers facing climate-related disruptions.
Supporting evidence: Literature review	Report on analysis highlighting how much of Scotland’s traditional food culture connected to native plants has been lost, with significant implications for climate resilience. This loss is rooted in historical events such as land enclosure, the Highland Clearances, the dissolution of monasteries, and strict regulation of industries like whisky production, which excluded traditional local ingredients. These processes contributed to the erasure of knowledge and practices around native plants—plants that could play a vital role in adapting to climate change through low-input, locally adapted food systems. (Lozada & Karley, 2022).
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder meetings	–
Supporting evidence: Stakeholder workshops	“We need to be more resilient. Even weather concerns > power cuts etc. can have a huge impact on the resilience of a farm. A bad year of weather patterns can completely skew a crop trial, and previous variants that we maybe do not use/grow as much now, could potentially be more resilient. Poultry especially is much more sensitive to zoonotic/disease strains around years ago.” (Workshop 3).

How to cite this publication:

Nash, N. (2025) Analysing a Complex Policy Landscape: Diet and Climate in Scotland’, ClimateXChange. DOI

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

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A second in-person workshop (Workshop 2) was planned in Edinburgh on Friday 24^th January but had to be cancelled at the last minute due to disruption from Storm Eowyn. ↑
The ‘Less Favoured Area’ classification refers to areas where farming is naturally more difficult due to factors like poor soil, steep slopes, or challenging climates. See: Less Favoured Area Support Scheme (Scotland) Regulations 2001 (S.S.I. No. 50 of 2001). | FAOLEX ↑
Initial steps that can be taken using existing structures or resources. Includes scoping, piloting, stakeholder engagement, and coordination-building activities. ↑
Actions that require broader collaboration, policy alignment across sectors, or formal programme development. Often builds on earlier pilots or evidence. ↑
Longer-term actions requiring legislative change, significant investment, or systemic redesign. These aim to embed lasting transformation. ↑
Scotland’s Agricultural Reform Programme, particularly through greening payments and conditional support mechanisms (e.g., environmental conditionality), does include some financial incentives intended to encourage more sustainable production. ↑
Food Data Transparency Partnership – GOV.UK ↑
Food labelling is largely governed by UK-wide legislation. ↑
About the Scottish Government’s National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3) – Adaptation Scotland ↑
Meeting 14 involved a group meeting rather than a one-to-one meeting, in which multiple participants contributed to the conversation. ↑
Note: The online workshops omitted the future scenarios activity due to time constraints but retained the same core activities and objectives. ↑
NB: Workshop 2 was cancelled the day before it was due to take place because of Storm Eowyn. ↑
Integrated cattle breeding data systems allow the tracking of genetic traits of livestock over time. This can include feed efficiency and methane emissions. By linking performance data to genetic profiles, these systems support selective breeding for lower-emission animals. Without such a tool, it is more difficult to monitor and accelerate genetic progress toward reducing methane emissions from cattle in a coordinated and efficient way. ↑
An environmental policy principle stating that those who produce pollution should bear the costs of managing it to prevent damage to human health or the environment. ↑
The Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015 is legislation that aims to strengthen the voices of communities in decisions that affect them. It gives communities additional rights and opportunities to influence public service provision, ownership of land and buildings, and participation in local planning and decision-making to improve outcomes. See Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act 2015 ↑
The ARCZero project is a farmer-led initiative in Northern Ireland aimed at measuring and managing carbon flows within agricultural systems to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. Comprising seven diverse farms, the project employs advanced techniques such as detailed soil sampling and LiDAR scanning to assess both greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration capacities. By establishing comprehensive carbon balance sheets, ARCZero empowers farmers to implement informed strategies that reduce emissions and enhance carbon storage, contributing to more sustainable and climate-resilient farming practices. ↑

Research completed February 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5887

Executive summary

Aims

Scotland’s construction industry relies heavily on traditional primary aggregates. Lower carbon alternatives such as recycled concrete and incineration bottom ash aggregates are gaining traction. Innovations in recycling technology have improved the feasible quality and consistency of alternatives to primary aggregates, leading to greater acceptance among contractors and suppliers.

This study seeks to investigate the availability of alternatives to primary aggregates and analyse barriers to their uptake through literature review, data collection and stakeholder engagement. We also provide four case studies of where alternatives to primary aggregates have been used in Scotland.

Findings

We have found that alternatives to primary aggregates can reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly, with local sourcing further amplifying these benefits. However, logistical and supply chain challenges may limit these benefits when transportation distances exceed certain thresholds. As such, while there are promising pathways for the increased use of alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland, strategic actions would be required to address existing barriers and to support the transition towards a more sustainable construction sector.

There are three key interrelated challenges to facilitating increased deployment of alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland. These are technical viability and infrastructure, standards and market demand, and data availability.

Technical viability and infrastructure: Technical viability of alternatives to primary aggregates is improving. Investment in construction and demolition waste (CDW) infrastructure in Scotland has led to improvements in the purity and quality of alternatives to primary aggregates over the last 10 years. Advanced CDW recycling facilities are prevalent across the central belt, but their reach is limited in rural areas due to logistical and operational challenges, limiting uptake in these regions. Similar to the primary aggregates market, the market for alternatives is characterised by low profit margins, with producers of alternative aggregates also facing high investment costs for the development and expansion of recycling infrastructure. Stakeholders proposed incentivising recycling of recovered flat glass from construction and demolition projects through collaboration with the Scottish food and drink sector.
Standards and market demand: Some stakeholders suggested updating procurement specifications and regulations to reflect the advances in recycling technology noted above. Broader use of alternatives to primary aggregates is restricted by industry standards and related concerns regarding structural performance. Clients are generally risk-averse and influenced by uncertainties in technical performance quality. This limits market demand. Demand for alternatives to primary aggregates is also limited by competition from traditional materials.
Data availability: Although aspired to in this study, it was not possible to meaningfully forecast the availability of alternatives to primary aggregates. Low engagement generated limited responses and did not provide a representative dataset of material availability. Without more consistent and granular data, it is not possible to derive a robust definition of the volumes of materials available. That data is not systematically collected and stored as there is no real regulatory or client-led requirement for it, related to the points above. Evidencing the potential for adequate technical performance is difficult when the existing standards are thought by some to not fully reflect what is possible with modern processing techniques. It is difficult to make the business case for investment in a review and potential revision of standards without understanding the potential scale of environmental and economic impact, which is related to the need for more data.

In the context of the Scottish Aggregates Tax and other potential fiscal initiatives, there are two headline takeaways from this work:

Until robust and reliable Scotland-specific data on volumes of alternatives to primary aggregates is collected, any perceived benefits of tax rate changes will be somewhat speculative.
Potential subsidies for alternatives to primary aggregates are considered here at high level. Further work would be required to conduct a thorough assessment of the viability of any such scheme, which would, again, necessitate much more complete data than is currently available.

Further research

We have learned lessons that could inform future research:

Forecasting the availability of alternatives to primary aggregates in the Scottish construction sector is limited by significant data gaps that prevents meaningful baselining of their use.
Any future studies should factor in a longer data collection period to improve response rates.
A technical review of existing standards could be conducted to assess the feasibility of updating the current suite of industry standards to reflect advancements.
Feasibility studies should assess the expansion of infrastructure to rural regions.

Abbreviations

Abbreviation	Definition
CDW	Construction and Demolition Waste
CXC	ClimateXChange
CO₂	Carbon Dioxide
GHG	Greenhouse Gas
GWP	Global Warming Potential
LCA	Lifecycle Analysis
MCI	Material Circularity Indicator
RC	Recycled Concrete
SATBAG	Scottish Aggregates Tax Bill Advisory Group

Table 1: Glossary and abbreviations used during report

Introduction

Study context and aims

The Scottish Government has set the target for Scotland to reach Net Zero carbon emissions by 2045, laid out in the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 (Scottish Goverment, 2019). To meet this target, they understand that GHG reductions must be made across a number of sectors, including the construction sector, which is widely estimated to generate around half of all of Scotland’s waste (Scottish Government, 2024).

In 2023, the Scottish Government commissioned Circle Economy, an international circular economy research body, to map the flow of materials throughout the Scottish economy. The aim of the work was to identify how circular approaches could generate economic benefits and reduce the environmental impacts of waste and material consumption. Their research, among several recommendations, suggests that adopting circular approaches to construction, such as prioritising the use of alternatives to primary materials and aggregates, has the potential to deliver an 11.5% reduction in Scotland’s emissions (Circle Economy, 2023).

To support this aim, the Scottish Government is considering how the Scottish Aggregate Tax can incentivise the use of alternatives to primary aggregates by imposing a tax on the extraction and use of primary aggregate materials. This comes at an opportune moment, as the Scottish Aggregates Tax is expected to go-live in April 2026, and is set to become the third fully devolved tax in Scotland, after the Land and Buildings Transaction Tax, and the Scottish Landfill Tax. It will replace the existing UK-wide Aggregates Levy in Scotland through charging a tax on the use of aggregate when it becomes subject to commercial exploitation in Scotland and will be administered by Revenue Scotland.

However, the evidence base for the significance of the role that alternatives to primary aggregates can play in reducing the environmental impact of the Scottish construction industry is not currently sufficiently robust. There has been no systemic data collection focussing on supply versus demand for alternatives to primary materials in Scotland, and therefore the full extent of the potential environmental impact is unknown. There is also uncertainty about how much more deployment of alternatives to primary aggregates is possible and what the potential options are to overcome the barriers to this ambition.

This study aims to develop a fuller understanding of the types, development levels, and potential impact of alternatives to primary aggregates, and the barriers to their increased use in Scotland. It focuses primarily on aggregates used within the construction industry, which are understood as granular building materials, primarily comprising of sand, gravel, and crushed stone and rock. They are often produced through the crushing, screening, and extraction processes within quarries, or produced as a by-product from demolition practices. While they play a critical role in construction projects, forming the basis of concrete, asphalt, and other materials, their use is not exclusively limited to this industry.

Our work included a review of available industry and academic literature on the subject, an investigation into the availability of relevant primary quantitative data, and a series of stakeholder engagement interviews and surveys. The combined insights from these activities are summarised in this report and draw learnings for policymakers to consider in the further development of the Scottish Aggregate Tax. The methodology followed is discussed in more detail in Appendix A.

Traditional primary aggregates use

In Great Britain, approximately 250 million tonnes of aggregates are used annually within the construction industry, with an additional 20 million tonnes in Northern Ireland. Scotland plays a vital role in the UK’s aggregate supply chain, both as a significant producer and consumer of materials. In 2022, Scotland produced 21.3 million tonnes of crushed rock, accounting for a substantial share of the UK’s total, alongside 4.5 million tonnes of sand and gravel. Additionally, the country produced 1.2 million tonnes of ready-mixed concrete (around 500,000m³), and 2.5 million tonnes of asphalt. Infrastructure projects dominate Scotland’s construction sector, comprising 22% of output and demonstrating a heavy reliance on aggregates (Mineral Products Association, 2024)

The push for sustainable practices in construction has led to growing interest in viable substitutes for traditional primary aggregates. Historically, primary aggregates, sourced from natural materials like rock, granite, and gravel have dominated the market due to their reliability and robust characteristics. Commonly used in applications such as house building and road development, these virgin materials are often chosen by contractors and developers for their proven durability and performance. However, the environmental costs associated with extracting and processing these carbon-intense materials, including significant GHG emissions and the depletion of finite natural resources, present the need for alternative solutions, some of which are set out below.

Alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland

In 2021, recycled and secondary sources supplied 28% of total aggregate demand, while the remaining demand was fed from primary aggregate extraction in the UK (Mineral Products Association, 2022).

While there is no definitive categorisation of the different materials which may be classed as ‘alternatives to primary aggregates’, in this project we apply the following broad understanding:

Recycled aggregate: Construction and demolition waste (CDW) that has been processed into usable aggregate.
Secondary aggregate: Materials derived from the process of extracting aggregate or other industrial processes.

The availability of alternatives to primary aggregates plays a critical role in the successful uptake of sustainable materials in the construction sector. Through desk-based research and stakeholder engagement, it was found that there are a range of suppliers actively producing alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland. The most commonly produced alternatives were found to be:

Recycled concrete (RC) and washed recycled sand, which are primarily used in building and housing construction applications
Incineration bottom ash aggregate (IBA), and
Recycled asphalt plannings which are typically deployed into road construction and infrastructure developments.

Case Studies

Provided alongside this report are four case studies of project examples where alternatives to primary aggregates have been used in Scotland. These are:

Case Study 1 – Using alternatives to primary aggregates to extend full fibre broadband across Scotland.
Case Study 2 – Incinerator Bottom Ash in low-carbon concrete for housing development.
Case Study 3 – Treatment of hazardous soil and use of by-products for secondary aggregates.
Case Study 4 – Sustainable development of the haul road to the East Capellie Recycling Wash Plant.

These case studies demonstrate some of the technical innovations and viability points discussed in Sections 3.1 and 3.3. They also highlight some of the outstanding challenges to stimulating wider replication of the examples discussed, such as a lack of publicly available externally verified full environmental impact calculations, and the lack of firm data on available volumes of the alternative materials discussed. These challenges, among others, are discussed in detail in Section 3.4.

Findings

In this section we present the combined outputs and insights from our literature review, stakeholder engagement, and data collection exercises, organised into general learning themes. Examples of how the themes explored here can impact specific businesses are illustrated in within the Case Studies referenced in section 3.4.

Factors driving uptake of alternatives to primary aggregates

During our stakeholder engagement, representatives of Scottish wash plants and producers of construction materials reported that attitudes to alternatives to primary aggregates have changed significantly over the last ten years. While all stakeholders agreed that there will always be demand for primary aggregates, recent innovations demonstrate that alternatives can now be used effectively in more cases than were previously possible.

Factors driving uptake of alternatives to primary aggregates, as discussed in our interviews, include technical innovations and changing attitudes, explored below.

Technical Innovations

There has been significant investment in development of advanced CDW recycling infrastructure across the central belt of Scotland over the last 10-15 years. Interviewees cited an increase in the number of CDW recycling sites equipped with wash plants, multiple crushers and screening technologies which allow for the removal of contaminants and impurities that can negatively impact the strength of concrete produced from recycled aggregates. This is an advancement on mobile crushing plants traditionally used for the management of CDW, which typically involve single crushing and minimal equipment for the removal of unintended constituents (Pacheco & Brito, 2021). Interviewees felt that these innovations have led to a significant increase in the quality and consistency of the recycled aggregates that can be produced. This view was supported in the interviews by a manufacturer of primary aggregates, a quarry and three operators of CDW recycling and wash plants. Examples of the improved technology are discussed in Case Study 4, provided alongside this report.

When producing concrete, key manufacturers, wash plants and major contractors, are now able to benchmark performance, and grade- and cube test alternatives to primary aggregate. The introduction of these new technologies allows them to understand the compressive strength, relative density and overall quality. Concrete cube testing is an essential process for assessing whether a product meets necessary safety standards and regulatory requirements, and whether they are suitable for different applications within construction. As a result of innovations in wash plant, screening and recycling technologies, these stakeholders are able to produce concrete from alternatives to primary aggregates that are able to meet similar standards and specifications to primary aggregates. This expands the scope of where these materials can be applied.

Changing attitudes

It is acknowledged that the development of Net Zero infrastructure and renewable energy projects, will require a significant increase in concrete production. For some stakeholders, this represented a potential opportunity for greater use of recycled and secondary aggregates. While the rapid growth of renewable energy infrastructure has the potential to reduce overall CO₂ emissions, research has indicated that the increased demand for high impact materials, such as steel and concrete which both have significant carbon footprints, may undermine the environmental benefits of this infrastructure unless otherwise mitigated (Rueda-Bayona, et al., 2022). An interviewed manufacturer of primary aggregates and construction materials noted that they expect this to expand the portfolio of projects where alternatives to primary aggregates may be applied, provided that sufficient quality assurance and standards are in place. They noted that where they had the assets and the capability to supply alternative aggregates, these were being used in nearly every case due to demand from clients motivated by Net Zero targets, such as Tier 1 infrastructure contractors^[1], Local Authority or residential clients.

Interviewees also noted that attitudes have been shaped by the negative impacts COVID-19 and Brexit had on the supply of construction materials. Following the easing of lockdown in 2022, construction projects and demand for construction materials surged. These events created scarcity in the availability of construction materials, particularly cement, leading to fluctuations in prices and long lead-in times for primary aggregates. Due to significant shortage of construction materials and significant lead-in times and costs associated with procuring these materials, Tier 1 infrastructure and housebuilding projects looked to recycled/recovered construction materials to fill the gap. Practical experience with recycled aggregates helped to dispel concerns regarding the quality and practical application of recycled materials.

Environmental impact

The construction sector is the world’s largest consumer of raw materials. According to UNEP and the World Research Institute, buildings account for 40% of all waste generated by volume, 40% material resource use by volume and between 33-37% of all GHG emissions (World Resources Institute, 2016) (UNEP, 2023). In addition, the extraction of primary aggregates, such as rock, sand and gravel generate significant environmental impacts on local biodiversity and habitats. Open-pit mining necessitates the removal of topsoil and vegetation to access the materials that lie beneath. In the UK, up to 22% of sand and gravel is extracted from marine dredging (Mineral Products Association, n.d.). Whilst controlled and responsible marine aggregate extraction would always seek to minimise adverse impacts, there is widely accepted potential for harm to marine habitats from aggregate extraction (United Nations Environment Programme Finance Initiative, 2022). Both activities generate severe negative impacts on animal and plant species and can contribute to sedimentation and erosion of riverbanks and coastlines (UKGBC, 2025).

There is a growing body of evidence that alternatives to primary aggregates can deliver improved environmental performance compared to traditional materials, particularly offering a lower carbon output. Through a rapid review of the literature, we found evidence on lower emissions associated with carbon-reinforced RC industrial flooring (Luthin, et al., 2023), recycled aggregate concrete (Hasheminezhad, et al., 2024) and concrete mixes (Adesina, 2020).

In a study carried out by Luthin (2023), the sustainability performance of a carbon-reinforced RC industrial floor was measured and assessed during its development using the Material Circularity Indicator (MCI) and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methods. These tools were used to evaluate both recycled and virgin materials, respectively. Linear resource flows refer to the traditional approach of resource use, where materials are extracted, used, and then discarded as waste, with minimal or no reuse properties. In contrast, circular resource flows aim to extend the lifecycle of materials by prioritising, reuse, recovery, and recycling, reducing the need for virgin material extraction and waste generation.

The study carried out by Luthin (2023) investigated and analysed the recyclability of a floor that that was produced with an RC mixture as the foundation material for an industrial floor, this was then measured and evaluated upon its strength, performance, and carbon profile. The LCA showed that the reinforced RC industrial floor outperformed traditional concrete in environmental performance, achieving a lower Global Warming Potential (GWP). It was shown that the GWP for producing 1 tonne of RC flooring had an equivalent of 80.3 kg CO₂, compared to 195 kg CO₂ equivalent for 1 tonne of precast slabs (Luthin, et al., 2023).

Additionally, the MCI assessment found that the circular performance reflected a similar result, with the reinforced RC floor accounting for a notably high MCI score of 0.8184 (82%) (with a score of 0 being completely linear, and 1 being completely circular). This score reflects the significant use of recycled materials in its production and the potential for further recycling at the end of its lifecycle. In comparison, a new concrete floor composed entirely of virgin materials would score close to 0 on the MCI scale, as it would rely entirely on linear resource flows, using new raw materials with little to no recycling or reuse involved. The MCI score of 82% demonstrates how effectively the RC floor minimises the use of virgin resources and maximises the use of alternatives. Results like this, however, should be read in conjunction with other aspects of the compared materials. For example, this study also found that the RC floor would be more expensive to install, and has higher levels of human toxicity than the precast slab option. This highlights that all material choices should be made based on as full a consideration of all factors as possible.

This assessment is supported by Hasheminezhad (2024) who conducted a similar study, reviewing the LCA and environmental performance of RC in comparison to traditional concrete materials. The study aimed to assess and highlight the GHG emissions and energy consumption associated with the entire lifecycle of concrete resources. This included evaluating the impacts across all phases of its use, including material extraction, production, transportation, usage, and end-of-life management (Hasheminezhad, et al., 2024). The study found that recycled aggregate mixtures of concrete do require marginally higher quantities of energy and cement than primary aggregates. This is often required to compensate for the lower strength and higher water consumption of the recycled materials involved. However, the research underlined the substantial environmental benefits of using recycled aggregate mixtures due to lower carbon emissions, especially when the recycled aggregates are sourced locally. This is due to the use of recycled materials significantly reducing the demand for virgin resources, such as natural sand and gravel, while also diverting CDW from landfills, both of which produce significant associated GHG emissions.

The Hasheminezhad et al. (2024) study also highlighted the GWP differences between the two concrete materials, showing that the GWP of RC was lower by up to 15% compared to natural aggregates, particularly when recycled aggregates completely replaced all natural components within the concrete mix. The whole life assessment outlines the importance and influence of energy consumption generated through extraction and transportation practices. With a particular focus on the value-chain of the resource and the importance of locally sourced materials, embodied emissions are a critical factor when assessing the carbon reduction potential of alternative materials. Embodied emissions relate to the GHG emissions associated with a product or material across its entire life-cycle, including sourcing and processing of the materials, and eventual end-of-life treatment. Therefore, these comparisons should factor all impacts associated with extraction, use and disposal.

The importance of reducing emissions in the transportation of aggregates is also highlighted in a review by Adesina (2020). The report recognises the potential for all aggregates to improve their carbon impact, and the major role in emissions profiles of cement content levels. They also note that the construction industry has made steady and effective progress in reducing emissions throughout the lifecycle of concrete mixtures by prioritising the extraction and efficient use of locally sourced aggregates. By adopting a more strategic approach to the processing and transportation of recycled aggregates, the industry can continue to effectively address and mitigate the challenge of high embodied carbon emissions (Adesina, 2020). This potential was emphasised by several of the stakeholder interviewees for this study as an important contributor to Scotland’s overall environmental ambitions.

It is also important to consider the environmental impacts generated through the transport of primary and alternative aggregates from their point of extraction or production to their point of use. As discussed in sections 3.1.1 and 3.4.4, wash plants for the recycling aggregates are heavily concentrated in the central belt of Scotland. Therefore, the logistical feasibility of supplying recycled or alternative aggregates is limited by distance, as after a certain distance, it becomes uneconomical to supply these materials via truck due to transportation costs. Similarly, after a certain distance, the environmental benefits of alternatives to primary aggregates are outweighed by the emissions generated through transport.

The outcome of an LCA assessment of CDW recycling completed by Ricardo in 2021 for Natural Resources Wales^[2] found that delivery distances of more than 34km from originating site resulted in higher GHG emissions than were saved from the substitution of virgin materials. This break-even distance will increase as transport is gradually electrified and the electricity grid becomes less carbon intensive. This underlines the point that thorough LCA analysis is the only way to accurately reflect the environmental impacts, positive or negative, of any business decision.

Technical viability

Academic discussion

As discussed in the challenges section 3.4 below, there is a widely held perception that recycled or secondary materials can struggle to meet performance requirement standards. Whilst this will clearly be true for some materials, it is not the case for all, and it is important to be able to demonstrate successful use with technical data (Dhemaied, et al., 2024). There is a body of research which focusses on strength, durability, and workability of CDW-derived aggregates in infrastructure projects, with many studies showing promising results for specific applications. Examples are discussed below and in the case studies provided alongside this report.

Recycled sand can replace natural sand in certain construction contexts without compromising quality. In the Virgin Media O2 project under Scotland’s Full Fibre Charter (Scottish Government, 2022b), sand aggregate derived from CDW was successfully used in telecommunications infrastructure, highlighting the role recycled sand can play in sustainable resource management. Case Study 1 provides more information on this example.

Alternatives to primary aggregates have shown strong potential in asphalt applications, particularly for road construction. The UK’s first carbon-neutral road improvement project employed recycled asphalt aggregate to reduce its carbon footprint significantly (Scottish Construction Now, 2021). Additionally, Tarmac’s biogenic asphalt deployed in this project uses plant-based binders with recycled aggregate to achieve effective carbon capture, reducing reliance on petroleum-based materials. This innovative approach demonstrates the potential for CDW aggregates to maintain or enhance the mechanical properties needed for asphalt in road applications, supporting a low-carbon, sustainable future for Scottish road infrastructure (Tarmac, 2023).

RC is a sustainable construction material, primarily produced as a by-product from construction and demolition activities. It is composed of crushed concrete from structured components such as buildings, roads, and pavements, which is then sorted, cleaned and crushed into aggregate (typically between 2-4mm in diameter). Several studies, as discussed below, confirm the technical feasibility of using CDW-derived aggregates in low-carbon concrete formulations, meeting performance criteria for infrastructure applications while promoting sustainability. According to a review conducted by Han et al. (2023), suitably treated RC can act as a sufficient alternative for virgin concrete materials, with strategic adaptations to mortar content and density in recycled aggregates presenting durability and mechanical benefits to the material. This review highlighted that pre-treatment processes, such as the combined usage of lime soaking and carbonation^[3], can also improve the performance and properties of RC within construction. This is both supported and tempered by Thomas et al. (2018), who conducted a performance analysis review measuring the technical feasibility of RC, covering parameters such as the strength and permeability of concrete mixed with recycled materials. The review found that while recycled aggregates show great potential in being a suitable alternative to virgin materials, the strength can be compromised should RC aggregate content exceed 25% of the overall material. However, the review explains that this can be adapted through modifications in the concrete mix design phase, which would be necessary to address changes in the material’s physical and mechanical properties.

Stakeholder opinion

Amongst the stakeholders interviewed for this study, there was broad agreement that the use of alternatives to primary aggregates has been limited due to concerns among construction companies and potential customers regarding quality and consistency in supply of the materials. It was felt that prior experiences, where the quality of materials used had not delivered the required final functionality, have led to clients being wary and sceptical of specifying for anything other than primary aggregates.

Discussion of the current and future situation, however, revealed a mix of viewpoints. There were several reiterations of the opinion that, beyond uses such as landscaping and backfill of drainage and cable trenches, virgin stone will always be preferable to clients. On the other hand, one producer of both primary and recycled aggregates felt that there has been more market acceptance of recycled products over the last four years. As discussed in section 3.1, this has been driven through the normalisation of alternatives to primary aggregates seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting supply chain difficulties, alongside growing recognition of the fact that modern wash plants can produce very high purity output materials. One producer gave an example of a road construction project on their own site, using entirely recycled materials, which has seen 15,000 truck-loads, conveying 0.5M tonnes of materials, without any quality issues (please see Case Study 4 for more detail). This supports the summarised views from the literature discussed above. While there will continue to be the possibility for impurities and deleterious material to be present in alternatives to primary aggregates, it is not correct to assume this is always the case. It was felt amongst some stakeholders that, were robust testing and certification procedures in place to demonstrate how alternative materials comply with industry quality standards, there would be more comfort in their use for a wider range of applications.

These technical considerations, alongside potential environmental and economic benefits, play a critical role in shaping perceptions. Early involvement of client and design stakeholders in planning and decision-making processes is crucial for addressing specific concerns about the material’s use, while effective communication strategies are essential for securing support from both public and private sector clients and project sponsors.

Challenges and barriers to the increased uptake of secondary and alternative aggregates

As part of the movement to incentivise the development of sustainable practices within the construction sector, the broader adoption of non-virgin materials relies not only on their availability and relative demand, but also overcoming several barriers and challenges within the industry. The challenges identified through this study, and highlighted in the separately provided case studies, are categorised and discussed below, along with some initial ideas for options to begin tackling them.

Data challenges

The most significant barrier to developing a full understanding of what is both possible and practical is the lack of availability of robust quantitative data on alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland. One of the initial ambitions of this project was to forecast the potential contribution to GHG reduction targets of an increase in use of recycled or secondary aggregates in the Scottish construction sector. To calculate this, primary data was sought from key producers and sources of alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland, including established quarries, wash plants and demolition and excavation companies. The aim was to gain a baseline of annual sales in Scotland. This collated dataset would form a baseline of the potential supply of alternatives to primary aggregates, which would then be mapped against expected demand forecasts, both geographically and volumetrically, to calculate a proportion of how much forecast demand could be met. To calculate the GHG emissions associated with these volumes of secondary and recycled materials, we planned to apply GHG emission factors sourced from various standard approaches.

During the data collection phase, a simplified data collection form was sent to 36 suppliers of primary, and alternatives to primary, aggregates and demolition and excavation companies to request data on the types and volumes of materials sold annually. The research team conducted three rounds of emails and two follow-up calls to each identified supplier over a two-month period to request their participation in the study. Engagement with industry stakeholders was supported by ClimateXChange and members of the Scottish Aggregate Tax Bill Advisory Group (SATBAG).

Despite a large number of suppliers being contacted, the research team received minimal complete responses. There were several reasons for this, including:

Contacted suppliers had limited capacity to provide the requested data due to resourcing constraints or competing deadlines.
Contacted suppliers were concerned about potential commercial sensitivity in sharing the data.
Contacted suppliers did not see the commercial value in participating in the study, despite the relevance of the Scottish Aggregate Tax.

As a result, the limited primary data collected would not have been representative or robust enough to form a baseline for forecasting the future supply potential of alternatives to primary aggregates. Therefore, in agreement with ClimateXChange and the Scottish Government, the efforts to develop a GHG reduction forecast were discontinued and replaced by a focus on stakeholder interviews.

The challenge, and importance, of data availability regarding volumes of recycled and alternative aggregates was reiterated throughout our stakeholder interview phase. This interview phase incorporated four suppliers of recycled and alternative aggregate products contacted during the data collection, and seven public sector, industry and regulatory bodies. The purpose of these interviews was to gain in-depth insights into the key challenges facing the uptake of recycled and secondary aggregates (see Appendix A for further details).

During these interviews, it was noted that data availability inhibits the sector’s ability to forecast the potential environmental benefits of incentivising these alternative aggregates. It also limits understanding of what is possible and practical to aim for when considering the question of supply versus demand. There was a general consensus across the stakeholders interviewed that understanding the volumes available in the secondary market is key, but that such understanding does not currently exist at a sufficient level of accuracy. The difficulty was highlighted as particularly prevalent in Scotland, where interviewees noted suppliers are not used to being surveyed annually. While it is understood that the British Geological Survey is conducted every four years (e.g., in 2019 and 2023), the granularity of detail regarding the origin and characterisation of primary, recycled and alternative aggregates is not particularly well-defined.

To address this challenge, a systematic and robust data collection and reporting mechanism would enable confident, evidence-based decision making, both for Government and for industry members. Ideally, it should provide sufficient granularity to develop a quantitative local authority-level understanding on CDW arisings and volumes of alternatives to primary aggregates produced, stored and sold. Such a system would be complex and expensive to design and implement. The possibility of successful deployment would be maximised through collaborative public-private development.

Potential limited scope for increased use of alternatives to primary aggregates.

In contrast with the potential positive environmental impact and technical viability of alternatives to primary aggregates, is the belief of some stakeholders that there is minimal scope for a significant increase in their use. The potential for increased use of alternatives to primary aggregates needs to be balanced between what is possible and what is practical. The Mineral Products Association’s report, Aggregates demand and supply in Great Britain: Scenarios for 2035 (2022), posits that recycled and secondary aggregates are unlikely to meet projected demand in alignment with construction trends. This is due to the bulk of their supply being directly tied to demolition activity, and the fact that most suitable CDW is already being reused.

This sentiment was backed up in some of our interview conversations with sector bodies. They asserted that, in their estimation, 90% of recoverable CDW is diverted from landfill already and therefore opportunities for significant increases in recycled content are limited beyond incremental improvements. Indeed, the point was made by several interviewees that no-one in any industry likes unnecessary cost and waste, so for many years materials have been reused or repurposed on-site where possible to save costs. As such, construction sites have been adopting the principles of circularity without necessarily reporting it as such. Counter to this, among other stakeholders interviewed with experience in recycled aggregate production, and CDW management in general, there was the opinion that there is still potential for an increase in CDW diversion from landfill. One interviewee confirmed from direct experience that they could easily divert a lot more CDW from landfill and that they have the latent site capacity to process it into recycled aggregate. The only reason this is not done at present is that market demand is not sufficient to warrant the additional processing cost. Another interviewee noted that they have been able to significantly increase capacity since opening their first wash plant in 2017. In this time, they have developed facilities able to handle a much dirtier feedstock and process up to 300,000 tonnes per year at a rate of 150 tonnes an hour.

Addressing the data challenges discussed in Section 3.4.1 should provide clarity on how much scope there is for increased use of alternatives to primary aggregates. If there is found to be additional capacity, then efforts could be made to stimulate demand. These could include championing the role of alternatives to primary aggregates in meeting Net Zero targets through building or collating an evidence base of verified LCA studies or reports which demonstrate positive environmental impact when deployed appropriately.

Another significant opportunity to incentivise the use of alternatives to primary aggregates is through leading-by-example. Through public-sector procurement of relevant projects, mandates and design briefs could be developed to stipulate for, or give appreciable scoring consideration to, the use of alternatives where safe and technically appropriate to do so. The re-released Net Zero Public Sector Buildings Standard (2023) provides an example of how an initiative like this could be developed. While it does provide an embodied carbon (i.e. the emissions embodied in the materials used and construction activities themselves) target for new buildings, it is voluntary and does not stipulate specific measures or materials (Scottish Government, 2023). Opportunities to work within this existing framework, or via other public procurement or planning routes, could be explored and developed.

Challenges due to industry standards

A key factor limiting the uptake of recycled and alternative aggregates was found to be restrictions imposed by industry standards, which are then cascaded into procurement specifications. These established standards are instated to ensure safety, durability, and performance. These standards are designed to regulate the properties and quality of both natural and recycled aggregates across various applications. Key standards are listed in Table 2Error! Reference source not found., below.

Standard	Relevance:
BS EN 12620	Aggregates for concrete, outlining requirements for materials used in concrete production.
BS EN 13242	Aggregates for unbound and hydraulically bound materials, applicable to civil engineering work and road construction.
BS EN 933	Test methods for geometric properties of aggregates, covering particle size, shape, and other physical attributes.
BS 8500-2	Complementary to BS EN 206, this specifies additional requirements for aggregates in UK concrete applications.
WRAP Quality Protocol	Governing the performance standards for recycled aggregates, ensuring their safe and reliable use.
PAS 2050	Focused on assessing the carbon footprint of recycled aggregates.
BS EN 13108	Aggregates for bituminous mixtures, regulating reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP) for road surfacing and structural layers.
EA Quality Protocol for IBAA	Specific to Incinerator Bottom Ash Aggregate, ensuring environmental safety and suitability for reuse in construction.

Table 2: Key standards relevant to recycled and natural aggregates

It is important to note that these standards have been developed to ensure the structural integrity, durability and safety of built infrastructure. Any increases to these thresholds must be evidence-based, appropriate for the product’s application, and supported by industry-wide consultation. These limits have been established due to well-grounded concerns regarding the potential of deleterious and contaminant materials making their way into recycled feedstock, which may compromise the safety of the structures. In addition, it was broadly acknowledged by all stakeholders interviewed that while recycled and secondary aggregates have many good properties, they will not fully replace demand for virgin aggregates, which will still be required for some applications. Nonetheless, there was concern among producers of recycled and secondary aggregates that existing standards and testing regimes no longer reflect the potential quality and performance characteristics of alternative aggregates produced through modern recycling techniques. While industry standards for the use of aggregates set an upper threshold of 30% of recycled content rate within concrete, some stakeholders reported confidence in the potential of increasing this upper limit without compromising the structural integrity of the concrete produced. If a concrete product contains a recycled aggregate content higher than this threshold, they can only be sold as an unspecified product and as such will not meet procurement specifications.

The feeling from interviewed producers of both primary and recycled or secondary aggregates is that these limitations may restrict market demand. This issue is compounded by the fact that, largely, project specifications require aggregates to meet specific quality and industry standards for which it is difficult for recycled and secondary aggregates, and secondary aggregate containing products such as RC, to demonstrate full compliance. It was noted during the interviews that a lack of relevant standards reflecting current industry practice for alternatives to primary aggregates may contribute to concerns around potential liability if a fault occurs following completion of a project. As a result, engineers and planners may be less inclined to approve these materials for use, and contractors and procurers may not integrate these materials into contracts and structural drawings. Nonetheless, while there was broad agreement that under the current suite of industry standards it is not possible to accurately test the suitability of non-primary material for some structural works, standards and testing regimes do exist to assess the suitability of these materials for non-structural works, such as pipe-bedding, cable laying and landscaping works.

Moreover, stakeholders noted that alternatives to primary aggregates are often not explicitly included within procurement specifications for public or private construction projects. This has the effect of limiting market demand. It is possibly due to a lack of appropriate standards and testing regimes to discern between high-quality and low-quality alternatives to primary aggregates, which for some stakeholders may contribute to misconceptions regarding the perceived risk of using recycled aggregates. In some cases, it was noted that if procurement specifications require a certain percentage of “recycled content” to be used, contractors may feel more comfortable fulfilling this requirement with lower-impact materials used for furnishings (e.g. wood, polypropylene, vinyl flooring), rather than with aggregates, which may deliver greater reductions in GHG emissions.

Almost all stakeholders agreed that the experience of having low-quality recycled aggregate on the market has contributed to misconceptions regarding the purity and performance achievable through innovative modern technological processing techniques. However, significant investment has recently gone into development of quality control processes and technologies to remove contaminants and increase the purity, and therefore quality, of outputs. This improvement and development has thereby expanded their potential uses for other applications.

For example, an operator of a wash plant noted that traditionally contractors used mobile crushers to produce recycled and secondary aggregates from construction, demolition and excavation activities. These crushers often used dry screening to filter out contaminants. However, due to Scotland’s wet climate – and, in the case of excavation, the silt and clay material common in Scotland’s geology – the crushed feed material would often become sticky, making it difficult to remove contaminants and ultimately reducing the purity of the output. Modern wash plants, on the other hand, are often equipped with multiple crushers, washing and screening technology to crush and effectively segregate aggregates from these contaminants. In the case of excavation activities, this also allows for the collection of the silt and clay as a valuable by-product. Similarly, an interviewed producer of construction materials noted that clients and contractors may not be aware that this sector is rapidly evolving, and that technologies are coming online that can, for example, extract the cementitious properties of concrete and recover the concrete used.

In conclusion, current standards and specifications for recycled and secondary aggregates are felt by industry stakeholders to be outdated or restrictive, failing to support the technological innovations and resultant industry confidence. As noted above, while demand for recycled and secondary aggregates has traditionally been lower than primary aggregates due to concerns regarding quality and consistency in supply, there is a sentiment among some interviewees that this has changed as a result of research and development investment and innovation, leading to significant improvements in the quality of materials that can be produced from CDW. While the structural integrity of built infrastructure must not be compromised, to enable broader recycled and secondary aggregate adoption, updates to standards and specifications are essential to reflect current practice and provide guidance on the materials’ structural performance.

To address these challenges, there is an opportunity to review current industry standards, to understand if there is scope to develop and update them to better reflect modern recycling capabilities and the quality of alternative aggregate products they can produce. Additionally, as with the option to develop a library of proof of environmental performance discussed in Section 3.4.2, a suite of case studies could be built or collated to demonstrate good practice and the technical appropriateness of alternatives to primary aggregates.

Operational and market challenges

There was broad disagreement among the stakeholders interviewed for this study regarding the need to provide additional support for the uptake of alternatives to primary aggregates. This was due to contrasting views regarding the perceived ‘saturation’ of recycling and wash plants across the central belt of Scotland, the operational barriers of expanding aggregate recycling facilities to rural areas, and the challenges in segregating CDW at source.

It was felt that the saturation of state-of-the-art facilities (e.g. wash plants), combined with a lack of demand for non-primary aggregates for reasons discussed above, means some of these businesses are sitting on significant amounts of washed concrete, recycled sand and gravel, with no off-take market (i.e. customers to buy their product). Indeed, four interviewees noted they could significantly increase their recycled output if there was sufficient market demand to justify it.

Within this context, some stakeholders representing primary aggregate suppliers felt that if the Scottish Government used financial or legislative support such as increasing the tax rate applicable under the Scottish Aggregates Tax to generate market demand and incentivise the use of recycled or alternatives to primary aggregates, the primary aggregate sector would be placed at a competitive disadvantage. These state-of-the-art facilities require millions of pounds of investment, which creates a barrier to entry for primary aggregate suppliers seeking to move into the recycled aggregate market due to sustainability and Net Zero benefits. In addition, these stakeholders felt that as some recycled aggregate companies operate their own fleets, they may be more readily able to drop the price of the recycled aggregates in order to sell excess stock, which may contribute to increased market volatility and reduce the competitiveness of primary aggregates.

On the other hand, producers of recycled- and alternatives to primary aggregates felt that their competitiveness was overstated due to the operational and geographic limitations of their business models. It was noted that traditional quarrying allows significant volumes of primary aggregates to be sourced (e.g. through drilling and blasting) and sent out for delivery with lower overheads and lower investment in infrastructure. This allows them to compete favourably against producers of recycled aggregates that require investment in high-specification wash plants, trash screens, and technology to grade and segregate feedstocks.

In addition, suppliers of alternatives to primary aggregates interviewed noted they were also constrained geographically, as their infrastructure needs to be situated in a catchment area where there is a high volume of CDW being generated. This makes competition with traditional primary aggregate suppliers challenging. This is especially true in rural regions outside of Scotland’s central belt, where it is currently not commercially viable to operate wash plants or supply non-primary aggregates due to a lack of non-primary material inputs, and the haulage and fuel costs associated with transporting these to customers. One interviewee noted the fuel costs may be subject to change, if they were able to transition their fleet to electric vehicles supplied by renewable sources. However, this remains a significant operational barrier.

It was generally agreed by interviewed stakeholders and within the supporting literature, that to maximise the financial and environmental benefits of using alternatives to primary aggregates, these should be used as close to the source as possible (e.g. demolition sites or construction sites) (Wang & al., 2024) (Santolini & al., 2024). However, there was concern that availability of recycled and secondary feedstock was also often constrained by resistance within construction and demolition companies to appropriately segregate materials at source, due to concerns regarding feasibility and costs. There was broad agreement that this was due to the structural and commercial pressures that construction and demolition companies face when delivering a contract. It was explained that demolition contracts tend to be awarded for efficiency and speed to avoid financial penalties for not completing a project within the timeframe set by the agreed upon planning permissions. This can lead to a tendency for operators to make business decisions based on the belief that the removal of specific structural elements and the use of screening technology to facilitate reuse and recycling of aggregates will be time consuming and generate additional, unwanted costs.

One specific example is the lack of on-site removal and screening being a key barrier to the recycling of flat glass. Currently, the Scottish Landfill Tax provides little financial incentive to recycle flat glass recovered from buildings as this material qualifies for the lower rate of landfill tax of £4.05/ tonne from 1 April 2025 (previously £3.30/tonne). As a result, recovered glass is crushed for use as a low-value input for aggregates in road construction or landfilled. British Glass (an industry body representing the UK glass industry) noted this is a significant lost opportunity to maximise the value generated from glass recycling, minimise avoidable waste, and reduce GHG emissions. Glass can be continuously recycled and remelted into new glass products without loss of quality, provided it is appropriately segregated to avoid impurities. Their estimates indicate up to 200,000 tonnes of flat glass is generated by the UK demolition and construction sector. If flat glass was diverted from landfill and remelted into new glass products, this could save 60,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year. Replacing virgin raw materials with 10% recycled glass saves 3% of furnace energy when producing glass products (British Glass, 2024).

While there are currently no flat glass recycling facilities in Scotland, British Glass emphasised that there is significant market demand from the Scottish food and drink manufacturing sector, particularly Scottish whisky and gin distilleries, for recycled glass materials in order to reduce their Scope 1 emissions (those that are directly generated through their operations). As such, they underlined the clear synergies and shared economic benefits of greater cross-sector collaboration for the recovery and segregation of flat glass products (e.g. windows) for recycling by the food and drink sector into glass packaging (e.g. bottles). This would only be feasible if appropriate on-site practices were implemented by stakeholders within the construction and demolition sector.

To mitigate these operational challenges, stakeholders interviewed felt that the costs of the segregation and processing of recovered aggregates and glass could be passed onto the client, especially if this was mandated or supported by legislation. A change in planning permissions or adjustments to the Scottish Landfill Tax that increases the cost of disposal were both suggested as potentially significant levers for change.

Finally, it should be noted that several interviewees reflected the view that wash plants should be seen as complementary to, and not competitive against, the existing producers of primary materials. Through sector collaboration it was perceived that increasing use of alternatives to primary aggregates would contribute to the extension of the useful lifetime of quarries, while producing materials that may not directly compete with materials derived from hard rock quarries, such as clean crushed stone.

The market stimulation efforts and ideas to tackle challenges due to industry standards discussed in the above two sections would go some way to tackling the challenges discussed here as well. To address the issue of alternatives to primary aggregates only really making environment and commercial sense if used relatively closely to where they are produced, effort could be made to support the development of recycling infrastructure in areas away from the already well-served central belt of Scotland.

Fiscal factors

There was broad agreement among stakeholders that, currently, the cost of purchasing alternatives to primary aggregates is comparable to that of primary aggregates. Yet, despite this similarity in pricing, there is a preference for primary aggregates in the market. Our findings indicate this is driven by the quality issue perceptions discussed above and the associated costs and challenges of ensuring compliance with required standards (e.g., screening, sorting, testing). However, there could be two areas of flexibility that could support a shift of this market dynamic in favour of alternatives to primary aggregates.

These are:

Tax rate adjustments for primary aggregates: The Government could choose to raise the tax rate on primary aggregates to further strengthen the incentive to use alternatives to primary aggregates.
Subsidies for alternatives to primary aggregates: Businesses that reduce the use of primary aggregates by incorporating alternatives into their operations could be made eligible for a subsidy scheme. Payments could enable businesses to lower their costs and for these cost savings to be passed on to customers. This could lead to more competitive pricing for products made with alternatives compared to those made with primary aggregates.

Tax rate adjustments for primary aggregates

The Scottish Government’s review of evidence and policy options for the Scottish Aggregates Tax (2020b) conducted an illustrative modelling exercise (based on tax rates at the time) for four tax rate scenarios:

Option 1 – High levy rate (Tax increase scenario): Under this option, the Scottish Aggregates Tax rate is set above the UK levy rate.
Option 2 – Low levy rate (Tax decrease scenario): Under this option, the Scottish Aggregates Tax rate is set below the UK levy rate.
Option 3 – Scottish Government baseline (No tax scenario): The levy rate is set to zero under this option, to model the impacts of a ‘do nothing’ approach.
Option 4 – New landfill tax band for aggregates (Landfill scenario): The levy rate is kept at the same level as the UK levy rate, while creating an additional band of landfill tax for aggregates which is higher than the rate for landfilling inert materials.

The results of this modelling are reproduced in Table 3 below.

	BaU	Option 1	Option 2	Option 3	Option 4
Aggregates levy rate	£2.00	£2.50	£1.50	£0.00	£2.00
Landfill tax for inert materials	£2.90	£2.90	£2.90	£2.90	£2.90
New landfill tax band for aggregates	–	–	–	–	£3.80
Demand for aggregates	–	Decrease	Increase	Increase	Unchanged
Production of primary aggregates	–	Decrease	Increase	Increase	Decrease
Imports	–	Decrease	Increase	Increase	Decrease
Exports	–	Increase	Decrease	Decrease	Unchanged
Production of recycled aggregates	–	Increase	Unchanged	Unchanged	Increase

Table 3: Modelled tax rates and impacts under different policy scenarios (reproduced from (Scottish Government, 2020b))

Unsurprisingly, the modelled outcomes for raising the tax rate for primary aggregates and for introducing additional costs for landfilling of aggregates (Options 1 and 4 respectively) show a decrease in the use of primary aggregates and an increase in the use of alternatives. These are expected results for the unambiguous financial interventions into the market modelled. However, the level of redistribution of total demand between primary and alternatives aggregates that is actually possible, and the resultant worth of that compared to additional administrative costs, remains unclear. The 2020 Scottish Government review highlights that 87% of CDW is already recycled in Scotland, and the challenges discussed in Sections 3.4.1 and 3.4.2 above corroborate and augment this note of caution. Until robust and reliable Scotland-specific data on volumes of alternatives to primary aggregates is collected, any perceived benefits of tax rate changes will be somewhat speculative.

Subsidies for alternatives to primary aggregates

While alternatives to primary aggregates will be already be exempt from the Scottish Aggregates Tax, there is the potential to further incentivise their use by offering a subsidy. Potential recipients, such as those economic operators placing alternatives to primary aggregates on the market, would need to comply with any systems set up to verify amounts being claimed, so introducing some administrative burden.

The potential impacts and costs of introducing a subsidy system which aims to offer a positive incentive for using alternatives to primary aggregates are impossible to robustly estimate without access to granular volume data. Any potential scheme itself could require claimants to collect, store and report data on alternatives deployed. This potentially could include volumes and rates of CDW reused on site, capturing material which is not currently reflected in standard waste reporting as it never officially becomes waste. While this would incentivise the use of alternative aggregates and avoid the negative associations of disincentivising primary aggregates through the use of a tax increase, it would necessitate increased administrative and resource burden on both the scheme administrator and relevant claimants. Further work would be required to conduct a thorough assessment of the viability of any such scheme, which would, again, necessitate much more complete data than is currently available.

Summary learnings and next steps

The learnings drawn from the evidence review and potential actions for policymakers are summarised below:

Alignment with net zero targets: The Scottish Aggregates Tax could emphasise the potential role of alternatives to primary materials in meeting net zero targets in the construction sector. This could be relevant for other sectors that may have a use for these materials, such as food and drink manufacturing. This is particularly relevant for the GHG reduction potential of recycled aggregates, as well as for the recycling of flat glass. These environmental benefits can be evidenced through lifecycle assessments, which demonstrate the carbon savings potential of using recycled aggregates and glass.
Data accessibility and transparency: Significant data gaps exist in the monitoring of CDW generation and resultant availability of materials that could be used as alternatives to primary aggregates. This might complicate the implementation of any potential future Scottish Aggregates Tax rate changes and generate reasoned resistance from affected stakeholders. Robust data on waste arisings generated from CDW projects, and the types, quantities and value of alternatives to primary aggregates produced and sold, would enable policymakers to more accurately monitor and understand market dynamics for these types of materials. Given the resource demands of additional data collection, we suggest that systems and processes would need to be developed collaboratively between government and industry partners to promote engagement and adherence.
R&D investment: Continued investment in advanced recycling infrastructure can improve the quality of recycled aggregates. Public-funded R&D could support existing recycling facilities and develop recycling capacity among primary aggregate suppliers, particularly in underserved rural areas.
Addressing quality perceptions: Sector wide misconceptions regarding secondary and recycled materials, often based on historic experience, limit market demand. Public sector and industry partners could seek out targeted opportunities to emphasise successful case studies and promote quality assurance practices.
Updating standards and specifications: Industry standards restrict the use of alternatives to primary aggregates. Investment in R&D to review and potentially update industry standards could better reflect modern recycling capabilities. This could also contribute to addressing the quality perceptions discussed above. This could be complemented by engagement with standards bodies, such as British Standards, National Highways and Transport Scotland.
Capacity building and market demand: Policymakers could capitalise on latent capacity for recycling facilities could increase their capacity by implementing mandates and incentives to require and encouraging the use of alternatives to primary aggregates (e.g. in public sector procurement), where safe and technically appropriate to do so.
Facilitate cross-sector collaboration: Policymakers could support innovation to incentivise cross-sector collaboration for the recovery and recycling of flat glass from construction and demolition projects.

Policymakers should continue to effectively engage with key stakeholder groups within the aggregate industry to ensure any measures, including changes to tax rates and provision of financial incentives, are feasible and accepted. Additionally, the majority of the barriers discussed in this report will require engagement and the development of a mutual understanding with wider stakeholder groups. These include:

Private sector customers of primary and alternatives to primary aggregates, including Tier 1 contractors, homebuilding contractors, landscapers and relevant trade associations.
Public sector customers of primary and alternatives to primary aggregates, including local authorities and relevant public sector procurement representatives.
Relevant industries that may benefit from recycled aggregates, such as the Scottish food and drink sector for the recycling and valorisation of recovered flat glass.
Relevant industry standards bodies and research institutions to review feasibility of updating existing standards for alternatives to primary aggregates.

In summary, while there is a bank of academic, grey literature and stakeholder-opinion evidence that alternatives to primary aggregates can play a practicable and impactful role in reducing GHG emissions in Scotland, there is not universal agreement in the industry on these points. There are significant challenges and knowledge gaps to overcome. There are questions about the feasibility of increasing the proportion of alternatives to primary aggregates deployed, from both the available supply and market demand angles. There are deeply held reservations about the ability of alternatives to primary aggregates to provide the required technical performance, compounded by a sentiment that industry standards do not accurately reflect current recycling capabilities. Finally, there is a clear lack of robust, granular, Scottish-specific data to provide unequivocal clarity on several of the contested points. This study has detailed the key points of these challenges, their roots, and suggested some potential options to begin tackling them to facilitate a move to a more circular economy and sustainable construction sector in Scotland.

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Appendices

Appendix A: Methodology

In the completion of this report, the research team completed the following activities:

Task 1: Policy drivers workshop
Task 2: Literature review
Task 3: Data collection
Task 4: Stakeholder interviews

These activities are described in more detail below.

Task 1: Policy Drivers workshop:

Following inception of the project, a workshop was held with representatives of the Scottish Government, CXC, Ricardo and members of the Scottish Aggregates Tax Bill Advisory Group (SATBAG). This workshop was used as springboard to discuss the aims and objectives of this research project, establish a common understanding of:

The taxation and regulatory context as it pertains to the Scottish Aggregates Tax and Scottish Landfill Tax, including:
The potential and feasibility of different tax rates to remove barriers to the use of alternatives to primary aggregates.
Relevant regulations and potential exemptions that might influence their use.
SEPA’s potential role in providing data and regulatory input into the research.
Barriers to the use of secondary and alternatives to primary aggregates, including discussion of: market perceptions, commercialisation issues, cost considerations, and relevant regulations.
Environmental considerations, including: the environmental impact of recycling and potential unintended considerations, alongside policy drivers to minimise waste arising from construction.
Future research and data need to address potential data gaps and requirements to facilitate survey and evidence gathering.
Industry engagement to develop a clearer picture of how tax and regulatory changes will affect different parts of the industry, as well as consideration of cross-border traffic of aggregates between Scotland and other areas, which could impact the effectiveness of any tax or regulatory changes.
Expected impacts and considerations, including price sensitivities to assess the long-term impacts of a policy shift, and the need to carefully balance the economic impact on industries that rely on primary aggregates with the environmental goals of promoting secondary aggregates and minimising waste.

Task 2: Literature review:

An in-depth literature review was undertaken of academic, grey and white paper sources relating to the economic and environmental impacts of the use of alternatives to primary aggregates and their use. The scope of the review primarily focused on Scottish and UK-related studies, and was expanded to cover international best practice studies, particularly as they pertain to life-cycle assessments of alternatives to primary aggregates. These findings were collated in an Excel Document Register to facilitate the identification and analysis of key themes relevant to the study. The sources identified are summarised in Table 4, below.

Task 3: Data collection and analysis:

Following the literature review, the research team progressed to primary data collection from relevant industry stakeholders involved in the supply of alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland. The purpose of this activity was to gain a baseline understanding of the availability of alternatives to primary aggregates being sold in Scotland. This was then to be used to forecast the potential contribution to GHG reduction targets of an increase in use of recycled or secondary aggregates in the Scottish construction sector. To do this, the research team conducted desk-based research to identify up to 36 suppliers of aggregates, which included: manufacturers of primary aggregates, wash plant operators, construction and demolition waste recyclers, and demolition and excavation companies. Once identified, the collection of primary data was split into two sub-tasks: data collection surveys, and long-form interviews:

Sub-task 3.1: Data collection surveys:

The research team sent out data collection surveys to request the following information for the periods Jan-Dec 2021, Jan-Dec 2022, Jan-Dec 2023:

Material types supplied
Manufacturing locations
Quantities of material produced per year (tonnes)
Associated standards and quality control measures
Challenges associated with either collecting or increasing supply of each material type.

Due to data challenges described in section Error! Reference source not found., the research team received insufficient primary data to accurately forecast the potential availability of alternatives to primary aggregates.

Sub-task 3.2: Stakeholder interviews:

The research team conducted 4 interviews with relevant private companies and industry groups, listed in Table 5, for a duration of 45-60 minutes. The purpose of these interviews was to complement the data collection surveys and gather qualitative data to be used in Task 4, described below.

Research activity	Count	Research activity	Count
Building standards	8	Suppliers contacted for primary datasets	36
Academic and industry papers reviewed	19	Stakeholder interviews/surveys	10

Table 4: Research activities completed

Task 4: Investigate barriers and solutions to the supply of alternatives to primary aggregates:

Following the literature review and data collection phase, the research team conducted a series of interviews with relevant stakeholder groups to discuss any challenges or barriers to the uptake of alternatives to primary aggregates, and to assess potential fiscal or regulatory levers that could be used to mitigate these.

The aim of this phase was to facilitate a deeper understanding of how government and industry can work together to use environmental levies and associated instruments to affect the best possible climate impact and identify any barriers that may negatively impact their implementation. An interview script was developed to gain stakeholder inputs on the following topics:

Perceptions and attitudes toward alternative materials to primary aggregates
Operational considerations related to the supplying of alternatives to primary aggregates
Technical, regulatory and market barriers to the uptake of alternatives to primary aggregates
The policy and regulatory environment related to the application of alternatives to primary aggregates

To ensure that a broad range of viewpoints were considered, 10 interviews were conducted with relevant stakeholder groups identified from the SATBAG and during stakeholder engagement activities in Task 3. These stakeholders are recorded in Table 5.

Stakeholder Group	Organisation	Interview-/Surveyed
Private company	Brewster Bros	Interviewed
Public sector organisation	British Geological Survey	Interviewed
Industry body	British Glass	Interviewed
Industry body	Chartered Institute of Taxation	Interviewed
Local Authority lobbying body	Convention of Scottish Local Authorities	Surveyed
Industry body	Institute of Chartered Accountants Scotland	Interviewed
Private company	J&M Murdoch	Interviewed
Industry body	Mineral Products Association	Workshop
Private company	NWH	Interviewed
Government body	Revenue Scotland	Interviewed
Private company	Tarmac	Interviewed
Private company	Tillicoultry Quarries	Workshop
Industry body	The British Aggregates Association	Interviewed
Private company	W H Malcolm	Workshop
Government representative	William Carlin, Scottish Government	Interviewed

Table 5: Stakeholders engaged

Each interview was recorded and the transcript was cleaned and recorded in an Excel matrix to facilitate objective comparison and analysis of each stakeholder group’s perspective on the above noted topic areas.

Task 5: Synthesising results and report writing

Following completion of Tasks 1-4, the research team reviewed all evidence gathered throughout the study to identify key themes, areas of consensus, and areas where evidence or viewpoints may diverge or contradict each other. These were then mapped against the key objectives of the research project and grouped according to theme. This provided the basis of section Error! Reference source not found. in this report. Following this initial review, an interim report was developed and presented to CXC and representatives of the SATBAG to gain their input and ensure all viewpoints are objectively recorded within the body of the report.

Appendix B: Case studies

Provided as a separate document: Appendix B: Case studies – The role of alternatives to primary aggregates in reducing emissions from the construction sector

How to cite this publication:

Rob Snaith, R, Foss, J, Connell, J and Bonfait, J. (2025) The role of alternatives to primary aggregates in reducing emissions from the construction sector, ClimateXChange.

DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5887

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

High School Yards

Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

Large construction companies that generally manage the entire construction process for a project, often employing sub-contractors as part of the project delivery team. ↑
Unpublished internal report ↑
Saturating in limewater to introduce calcium into the material, thereby augmenting the carbonation reaction in which CO₂ in the atmosphere is diffused into cement-based material to react with CH and form calcium carbonates. Results in enhanced strength and durability. ↑

Executive summary

The Scottish Government’s third Scottish National Adaptation Plan (SNAP3) commits to establishing a short-life expert adaptation finance taskforce by 2026 to the support the development of Scottish adaptation investment strategies over the life time of SNAP3.

The Scottish Government and ClimateXChange co-hosted a collaborative “ignite” knowledge exchange workshop on 18 March 2025, bringing together academics, finance experts and practitioners. The event aimed to take the first steps in developing the terms of reference for the adaptation finance taskforce (henceforth referred to as the Taskforce).

The workshop addressed existing challenges in climate adaptation finance, opportunities for further action and examples of successful and innovatively financed adaptation projects from the UK and other countries. Discussions explored key insights highlighted in the Climate Adaptation Finance: Insights and Opportunities for Scotland (2023) paper, which identifies a range of options for Scotland to harness financial solutions for climate adaptation challenges.

There were three main sessions at the workshop:

a panel session on the key challenges and emerging solutions
a panel session exploring case studies for financing resilience
an interactive session to design and prioritise the remit, membership and timeframe for the Taskforce

Key findings and discussion points

Scale of the challenge

Various figures were referenced on the scale of the shortfall between the financial resources needed to adapt to climate change and the amount of finance available (known as the adaptation gap) in Scotland, the UK and internationally. The United Nations Global Adaptation Gap report found that over two thirds of estimated costs/finance needs are in areas that are typically financed by the public sector.

The key message was that climate adaptation finance and investment is lacking and that innovative partnerships across multiple organisations, the private and public sector, are required to bridge the gap. With this challenge comes multiple opportunities for realising co-benefits across the economy and society and for investing in Scotland’s infrastructure, nature and communities.

Workshop speakers and participants highlighted the global scale of the adaptation finance challenge, noting that no nation has fully effective interventions in place. However, there are valuable initiatives and examples of good practice in the international sphere, in the UK and in Scotland. There are opportunities to learn from these pockets of excellence, apply them to the Scottish context and scale them up into bankable frameworks and projects which can be replicated.

Remit of the Taskforce

Attendees supported the idea of a taskforce to advise the Scottish Government on financing adaptation.

A priority for the Taskforce would be to quantify the required adaptation spend and how to prioritise it on a sectoral basis within Scotland. A majority of participants thought that the taskforce should focus on quantifying the finance needed for increasing resilience in Scotland and indicating in which areas or sectors this spend should be prioritised. A possible output could form the basis of an adaptation investment plan.

Working to better integrate adaptation into existing market codes such as Woodland Carbon Code, Peatland Code and emerging biodiversity/natural capital/ecosystem restoration codes was another proposed workstream for the taskforce which had strong support from attendees.

Attendees questioned whether this work needs to be addressed specifically as an adaptation finance taskforce or whether it is part of good sustainable investment and business practices. It may be useful to frame the need for adaptation finance within wider societal challenges such as food security, health and wellbeing, child poverty etc. As an alternative to a taskforce, one participant suggested creating a climate finance platform, or independent broker, to help facilitate partnerships and unlock longer term bankable actions as per the OECD Climate Adaptation Investment Framework.

Taskforce membership

A range of organisations were suggested to form the taskforce membership. Attendees were keen to be involved in the taskforce. A key gap at the event was finance industry practitioner and expert representation. Participants reflected that, although representatives from these institutions were invited, a more effective method of engagement might be to dedicate time to a targeted event for financial institutions and insurance sector representatives.

The proposed members presented in Figure 1 cover four broad areas:

Finance industry
Public sector
Research/academia
Other

Figure 1: Proposed taskforce membership

Timeframe

Due to the Scottish Parliament elections scheduled for May 2026, attendees queried whether a taskforce could be established and provide recommendations before the pre-election period. An alternative could be for it to be proposed as an early action of the new government.

There was general agreement that a taskforce should have start and end point, and the opportunity to reconvene or follow up after their recommendations are made in order to track delivery.

The example of the Net Zero Investor Panel was discussed as a potential format for replication. This took place over 9 months and all members participated either pro bono or had paid for time within their own institutions.

Next steps

The Scottish Government will look to engage further with industry bodies and other stakeholders, recognising the gaps discussed in this report.

ClimateXChange is offering a 7-8 month post-doctoral research opportunity to support the Scottish Government in developing an evidence base for the costs of ensuring a climate resilient Scotland.

Opportunities for financing a climate resilient Scotland – record of discussion

Session 1 – addressing barriers and maximising opportunities

The first morning session was a panel discussion and Q&A aimed at outlining the emerging opportunities and challenges in the adaptation finance space, how this fits into the Scottish fiscal landscape and lessons learned from net zero investment.

David Ulph, Scottish Fiscal Commissioner, provided useful context on the Scottish fiscal landscape including the relationship to Westminster and the overall spending agreement between reserved and devolved powers. He stressed that fiscal sustainability relies on considering include all aspects of mitigation, adaptation and inevitable damages arising from climate change. Emphasis was placed on the role of both private and public sector investment to deliver on all three aspects of climate change spending. More in depth work on mitigation spend has been carried out by SFC and they would be keen to consider adaptation fiscal analysis in future.

The audience heard from Anna Beswick, Policy Fellow at the Grantham Research Institute at LSE working on climate adaptation and resilience, who discussed the scale of the adaptation challenge across the UK and the rationale for increased investment in adaptation. Finance flows are comparatively much lower compared to mitigation though many adaptation actions can also have net benefits for society, the economy and the ability to reach net zero. Anna outlined the goals of the ATTENUATE project (Creating the enabling conditions for UK climate adaptation investment) which include the creation of an Adaptation Investment Framework processes to translate UK National Adaptation Plan ambitions into a range of outcomes. These include creating bankable adaptation projects, how to use public finance to leverage private investment and the understanding the impact of an improved enabling environment for greater investment.

Michael Mullan who leads the OECD’s programme on adaptation finance and investment outlined the context of the global adaptation finance gap and set out the OECD’s investment planning approach through the Climate Adaptation Investment Framework (CAIF). Michael explained that losses related to global climate-induced natural disasters are at an all-time high, but investment is insufficient. The principles for the CAIF could be used as a reference point for the expert task force. Michael also referenced a number of case studies (in Annex X). A key message from Michael’s intervention was that there is currently no global gold standard or “star pupil” for adaptation finance. There are, however, lots of pockets of excellence but they need to be brought together and standardised in order to address the scale of the challenge.

Looking forward to opportunities to try and overcome some of the challenges set out, Ben Connor from Verture presented the findings from the Climate Adaptation Finance: Insights and Opportunities for Scotland (2023) paper published as part of the Adaptation Scotland programme. The barriers to adaptation finance are summarised into six categories in this paper: market, information, technical, bankability, policy, and behavioural. The twelve opportunities to overcome these barriers were then presented in four categories:

Policy
Ambition and vision for a well-adapted Scotland
Develop high integrity, values-led adaptation markets
Mainstreaming adaptation in existing market codes
Data
Quantification of adaptation finance need
Open data platforms and common metrics
Knowledge management and information sharing
Innovation
Grant funds for project development
Blended finance to facilitate private investment
Project delivery innovation
Collaboration
Regional adaptation planning
Support for SMEs
Partnership brokering and collaboration support

These twelve opportunities were discussed as a rough framework for improving adaptation financing in Scotland as part of SNAP3 delivery and used as the basis for the afternoon’s discussion on the remit of the taskforce.

Picture 1: Ben Connor from Verture presenting in Session 1

Recognising that investment in mitigation measures is comparatively more mature than adaptation investment, Dimitris Andriosopoulos Professor of Finance and Director of the Responsible Business Institute (ReBI) at the University of Strathclyde offered some reflections from supporting net zero investment and his experience as a member of the Scottish Government’s Net Zero Investor Panel.

The discussion and Q&A focused on the need to deliver a financial return for private investment and the inherent difficulties in identifying and quantifying this return in the adaptation space. It was suggested that adaptation has a “marketing problem” in this regard. There may be a need to drop the term adaptation all together and just focus on social responsibility, business sustainability, managing climate risks, due diligence and good governance.

An additional barrier limiting adaptation investment was lack of clear signals to the market from government, including cases in the international sphere, resulting from misalignment or lack of join up between governments’ budget/finance and adaptation teams. More collaboration would foster opportunities for larger scale impact.

Discussion reflected a need for balance between the public sector and regulatory levers to incentivise investment and the need to build on the private sector’s understanding of risk and innovation which can sometimes be lacking in the public sector. There was agreement that private investment is needed (it is not an “if” but a “how”) as the public purse will not cover the scale of finance needed.

Session 2 – what works? Case studies for financing resilience

The groundwork for the conversation including the national context was well set out in the first session which allowed for a deeper dive into some examples of examples of ‘what is working’ in Scotland and internationally in session 2. This took a similar format of short presentations and then a panel discussion.

Craig Love, Director of Impact Assessment and Environment at the Scottish National Investment Bank, discussed the regulatory conditions needed for sustainable adaptation investment, specifically the role of financial risk disclosures such as the Taskforce for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) framework.

Lucy Jenner from Savills spoke about her work with the Pentland Land Managers Association to work at a landscape scale using a blended finance model to increase nature restoration and increased resilience in the Pentland Hills. The Scottish Government Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS) grant helped employ a farmer as a project manager. She reflected that there can be both challenges and opportunities to these landscape scale models, particularly when benefits might be felt in other parts of a catchment (ie those not paying for the adaptation interventions). It is difficult to attribute benefit and to be clear on what is investible.

Ed Heather Hayes from Fife Coast and Countryside Trust and Jyoti Banerjee from North Start Transition presented on another blended finance project pilot at the Dreel Burn in Fife and the opportunities from collaboration on Nature Finance Fife and the Fife Transition Lab. Both projects look for innovative solutions to funding nature restoration and the speakers were advocates for good investment practice and collaboration across sectors. The private partners they have worked with might need more convincing about the need to invest in nature, and need to value ecosystem services, so there is further work required to demonstrate the financial case for investment.

Finally, offering perspectives from the Regions4 network, Melisa Cran highlighted that subnational governments across the world are key drivers of adaptation and that they can be instrumental in delivering innovative approaches to address adaptation finance challenges. She gave examples from Catalonia, Quebec, Lombardy and regions in Brazil which are investing in local-level adaptation, mobilising private capital and testing different climate-resilience financial approaches. Further case study details can be found in Appendix A.

Session 3 – Identifying the remit and membership of the Taskforce

The afternoon session involved facilitated groups of 6-8 people with the purpose of discussing the remit, timeframe and membership of the proposed Scottish Government taskforce on adaptation finance.

In terms of its remit, participants were reminded of the key opportunities for action outlined in the Adaptation Scotland Adaptation Finance Insights and Opportunities paper. These were proposed as potential workstreams for the taskforce. After discussing in groups, participants were encouraged to indicate a prioritisation of workstreams by placing red sticky dots on the various potential opportunities previously identified or offer new suggestions.

The results of this prioritisation exercise can be seen in Table 1 below.

Participants indicated a clear preference for the taskforce to be focused on the quantification of investment/finance needed and mainstreaming adaptation in existing market codes such as the peatland code, woodland carbon code and developing ecosystem restoration codes.

From further discussion, it was suggested the quantification of Scotland’s adaptation finance need would need to go beyond a single high-level figure (as per those referenced in Session 1).

Quantification of investment needs for adaptation should involve the following actions:

Identifying what spend should be included as delivering for adaptation
Highlighting the key sectors which will require adaptation spend
This could be prioritised in terms of levels of risk or sectors of the economy most likely to be impacted by climate change and/or areas where public finance is likely to be most lacking/insufficient
This sequencing (finance gap + priority sectors = spend over next 5-10 years) could form the basis of an adaptation investment plan

There was recognition that we cannot wait until we have the “perfect” quantification of finance, but improved costings are required to help prioritisation of spend and to signal where investment is most needed.

Table 1: prioritisation of workstreams for the Taskforce

Intervention from AS finance insights and opportunities paper	Indication of preference (sticky dots)	Comments/post-its
Quantification of finance needed	12	For this clarification of definitions would be helpful: how does SG define adaptation and resilience? This would feed into data being used to quantify need – i.e. what “counts” as adaptation investment? Need to understand scale of challenge and where we should prioritise spend
Mainstreaming adaptation in existing market codes (such as peatland code, carbon code etc)	11
Regional adaptation planning	8	(Provide governance of RAPs for investment – pivot to Regional Adaptation and Investment Plans)
Partnership brokering and collaboration support	6
Open data platforms and common metrics	6
Blended finance models	5
PDI	4	(Suggestion to help get ideas to an investment ready stage or supporting sequencing of policies from short to long term), picking off any low hanging fruit
Grant funding for project innovation	2
Vision for a well-adapted Scotland	2	A vision already exists through SNAP3. However, there is a need to get specific, go from how to finance adaptation to how do we finance these specific actions to deliver X vision)
Development of new, high integrity, values led markets	1
Knowledge management and information sharing	0
Targeted support for SMEs	0	Largely covered off by Adaptation Scotland engagement.

Other suggestions

Prioritising policies that can be invested in from private sector perspective rather than where are the biggest gaps
Upskilling and training
Supporting projects to start and then scaling them up (possibly similar to a SG funded incubator/accelerator programme)
Relationship building with the private sector
Need to recognise that this is long-term work but a short-term taskforce may provide a catalyst

Appendix A – Case study resources

ATTENUATE project – three ongoing case studies on bridging the adaptation funding gap

West Midlands Combined Authority on flooding and the risk to the built environment, transport network and social cohesion
London Borough of Hackney on risks to health, welfare and productivity, with a focus on social housing, from high temperatures and heatwaves
HM Treasury and Defra on risks to public and private assets, infrastructure, businesses, health, and to public finances (spending and income) from flooding and high temperatures

Case studies by theme

Regulatory alignment / market mechanisms
- Canada: Climate-resilient Infrastructure Standards Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada – Codes, standards and guidance for climate resilience
- Grenada: Climate Resilient Water Sector project by the GCF and GIZ Making water management and use in Grenada climate-resilient – giz.de
- Japan: National Agricultural Adaptation Plan Agricultural Adaptation Policy in Japan | SpringerLink
- Québec, Canada: Operates a Carbon Market, raising $9.2B by pricing carbon and reinvesting the revenue into climate action The Carbon Market, a Green Economy Growth Tool!
Insurance and risk transfer
- UK: FloodRe Flood Re – A flood re-insurance scheme
- Canada: Climate-risk sharing mechanisms in large-scale infrastructure projects Mobilizing private capital for climate adaptation infrastructure
- Central & South America: Parametric insurance for restoration of coral reefs Insuring Nature to Ensure a Resilient Future
Public finance and investment
- EU: 2021-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework and NextGeneration budget Long term EU budget 2021-2027 and Next Generation EU – Consilium
- World Bank Group: Climate Toolkits for PPPs in Infrastructure Climate Toolkits for Infrastructure PPPs
- UNDP: Governance for Resilient Development in the Pacific (Gov4Res) Governance for Resilient Development in the Pacific Project Brief | United Nations Development Programme
- Catalonia, Spain: Creation of a Climate Fund funded by vehicle emissions taxes. Has generated 380 million EUR since 2021 to support adaptation and mitigation projects
Paraná, Brazil: Uses an ecological tax, redistributing $570M last year to 270 municipalities to reward conservation efforts Ecological ICMS: Paraná State’s Environmental Tax Revenue Sharing Program – Regions4
Lombardy, Italy: Pioneering green budgeting, integrating climate priorities into public finance for better transparency, targeted investments, and increased access to climate funds.
Basque Country, Spain: First region in Spain to integrate the socioeconomic perspective into climate risk assessment, assessing the financial impacts of sea level rise and flooding to losses from €450 million to €2 billion by 2100.
England, UK: Partnership funding calculator for flood and coastal risk management grant-in-aid Partnership funding calculator 2020 for FCERM grant-in-aid (GIA) – GOV.UK
Sustainable Finance
- France: French Sovereign Green Bonds issued in 2017 (“OAT vertes”) France_report_final_20_04_18.pdf
- South Africa: Green Finance Taxonomy (GFT) released in 2022 SA Green Finance Taxonomy – 1st Edition.pdf
- Scotland: Adaptation Scotland work on climate adaptation finance https://adaptation.scot/our-work/climate-adaptation-finance/
Support for private investment
- The Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG) PIDG (Private Infrastructure Development Group)
- Lightsmith Climate Resilience Fund CRAFT – CLIMATE RESILIENCE SOLUTIONS FUND LCFP
Blended finance
- Scotland: The Dreel Burn Investment Readiness (DBIRP) partnership, funded by the Facility for Investment Ready Nature in Scotland (FIRNS) grant scheme, aims to restore the Dreel Burn, a river landscape in Fife. The Dreel Burn Investment Readiness Partnership – Fife Coast & Countryside Trust
- Bilbao, Spain – Uses public-private partnerships to de-risk and co-finance adaptation projects, making them more attractive to investors. Public-private partnership for a new flood proof district in Bilbao, Spain
- Scotland: Pentland Land Managers Association, restoration and biodiversity in the Pentland Hills Savills | Creating balance of a natural resource to suit all stakeholders

Appendix B – Agenda

9:30-10:00 Registration 

10:00-10:30 Introductory session 

Dr Kate Donovan, Co-Director of Edinburgh Climate Change Institute and Policy Director of ClimateXChange – Welcome 

Sarah Chalmers, Scottish Government – Setting the Scottish Policy Context – adaptation finance in the Scottish National Adaptation Plan (2024-29) 

10:30-11:30 Session 1 – Key challenges in mobilising adaptation finance and emerging solutions, Chair: Kate Donovan (ECCI and CXC) 

Anna Beswick (Grantham Institute, LSE) – Addressing the adaptation finance challenge: rationale for increased investment and the need for the ATTENUATE project 

Michael Mullan (OECD) – Global adaptation finance challenge and investment planning approaches (OECD CAIF framework) 

Ben Connor (Adaptation Scotland) – Emerging solutions for Scotland 

Dimitris Andriosopoulos (University of Strathclyde) – Lessons from Net Zero investment (SG investor panel) 

David Ulph (University of St Andrews/Scottish Fiscal Commission) – Key fiscal risks from climate change 

11:30-11:45 Coffee break  

11:45-13:00 Session 2 – What works? Case studies of financing resilience, Chair: Anne-Marte Bergseng 

Craig Love (SNIB) – The role of financial risk disclosures   

Ed Heather Hayes (Fife Coast and Countryside Trust) and Jyoti Banerjee (North Start Transition) – Blended finance project pilot – Dreel Burn & Scottish Transition Lab

Lucy Jenner (Savills) – Blended finance project – Pentland Land Managers Association 

Melisa Cran (Regions4) – Adaptation finance in other sub-national regions

13:00-14:00 Networking lunch  

14:00-15:15 Session 3 – Remit of the SG expert Adaptation Finance Taskforce   

Sarah Chalmers, Scottish Government – context and remit 

Table discussions 

15:15-16:00 Closing discussion Kay White (CXC) and Ben Connor (Verture) and next steps (Sarah Chalmers)

16:00-17:00 Drinks reception 

Appendix C – Input from participants (Slido)

Appendix D – Attendee organisations

Adapt40
AECOM
Association of British Insurers
Aviva
Cadlas
Climate Emergency Response Group
ClimateXChange
CLIMPATH
Fife Coast and Countryside Trust
Forth Climate Forest
Government’s Actuary Department
King’s College London
London School of Economics
OECD
Rebalance Earth
Regions4
Scotland Beyond Net Zero
Scottish Government
Scottish Fiscal Commission
Scottish National Investment Bank
Savills
University of Aberdeen
University of Glasgow
University of Strathclyde
University of St Andrews
Verture

The Scottish Government and ClimateXChange wish to thank all participants and presenters for taking part in the workshop on 18 March 2025.

How to cite this publication:

‘Opportunities for financing a climate resilient Scotland – Event report’ (2025), ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6113

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate as at the date of the report, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange, Edinburgh Climate Change Institute, High School Yards, Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

Research completed May 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6063

Executive summary

The Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT), introduced in April 2015, was designed to discourage landfill disposal and encourage prevention, reuse, recycling, and energy recovery.

The tax has two rates. The lower rate of SLfT was designed to provide a low-cost disposal route for inert, low-risk materials, such as rocks and soils. A higher standard rate targeted more polluting materials to support environmental goals.

In early 2024, lower-rate materials exceeded standard-rate materials for the first time. Along with shifts in policy priorities and a widening gap between the lower and standard tax rates, this raises questions about whether the lower rate remains aligned with the Scottish Government’s environmental objectives.

Aims

This research provides an initial evidence base to assess the effectiveness of the lower rate and explore whether changes could better support a low-carbon, circular economy. It examines the most common lower-rate materials, their environmental impacts, the feasibility of diversion and options for policy reform.

We conducted quantitative and qualitative data analysis, a literature review and stakeholder engagement.

Findings

Priority materials

We found that three materials accounted for 77% of all waste landfilled at the lower rate in 2023–24, by weight:

mechanically-treated fines (small particles from treatment of general construction and demolition waste, municipal recyclate etc.)
soils and stones from construction waste
mechanically-treated mineral fines (small particles from treatment of naturally-occurring materials such as rocks and soils, silt, clay, sand and stones, found in quarry, construction and demolition waste etc)

Mechanically-treated fines make up the greatest quantities of all lower-rate materials, despite being intended as a residual output from material recovery processes. Trends raise concerns regarding misclassification and (from our interviews) of intentional production.

Environmental impact analysis, based on the quantities landfilled in Scotland, showed that these three materials also have the highest impacts across indicators such as air pollution, water use and resource scarcity.

The classification of lower-rate materials is complex. The European Waste Catalogue (EWC) codes used by industry do not directly align with SLfT qualifying categories. Moreover, some codes encompass a range of material compositions depending on their source. Mechanically-treated fines are diverse in composition, originating from various construction waste materials. Soils and stones from construction waste, though better defined, also pose classification and compliance challenges. Mechanically-treated mineral fines tend to be more uniform.

Waste prevention and landfill diversion options

Soils and stones are often reused on-site or in restoration, though off-site reuse is constrained by regulation, logistics, and project timing. Options for recovering and re-using mechanically-treated fines are limited, due to contamination and variable composition. The recovery of mechanically-treated mineral fines is easier than the recovery of non-mineral fines but the cost and technical barriers make the use of virgin materials a simpler option.

Upstream measures in the construction sector may have more impact than attempts to recover and re-use waste. Such measures might include improving waste source segregation, designing for reuse and avoiding demolition. While such interventions are technically viable, they are limited in practice by weak incentives, inconsistent standards, and market barriers.

Policy assessment

The SLfT interacts with several fiscal and non-fiscal policies, both existing and on the horizon. These include the upcoming ban on biodegradable municipal waste to landfill; Scottish Aggregates Tax and Digital Waste Tracking, both expected in 2026 (DEFRA, 2023). Based on the assessment of diversion options for the priority materials, we highlighted various fiscal and non-fiscal policy options for future consideration.

Conclusions

This study suggests the lower-rate SLfT may be only partially aligned with Scotland’s current circular economy, waste prevention and climate goals. While it has supported some diversion of inert waste from landfill, it may also be driving unintended behaviours and limiting investment in recovery. Both fiscal and non-fiscal actions may be needed to address these challenges. The upcoming Scottish Aggregates Tax and wider circular economy policy agenda offer opportunities to align SLfT more closely with long-term environmental objectives.

Key areas for further exploration could include:

Raising the lower SLfT rate to incentivise application of the waste hierarchy.
Assigning a new SLfT rate to mechanically-treated fines, to address misclassification and recognise its relatively high environmental impacts.
Strengthening enforcement and guidance on material classification to reduce compliance risks.
Build on existing cross-border regulatory and enforcement cooperation to address ongoing challenges such as waste tourism and the evolution of the landfill tax.

This research is relevant to the Scottish Government, Revenue Scotland, SEPA, and others involved in the design or enforcement of fiscal and waste management policy, as well as stakeholders in the construction, demolition and waste processing sectors.

Glossary / Abbreviations table

AGL	The Aggregates Levy, a UK tax on the use of virgin rock, sand, and gravel for commercial purposes such as building roads and houses; to be replaced in Scotland by the Scottish Aggregates Tax from 1 April 2026
BMW	Biodegradable municipal waste
CCL	The Climate Change Levy, a UK tax to encourage reduction in gas emissions and greater efficiency of energy use.
CPF	Carbon Price Floor, a UK policy which imposes a tax on fossil fuels to incentivise investment in low-carbon power generation
C&D	Construction and demolition
C&D fines	Collective term used in this report for mechanically-treated fines (19 12 12) and mechanically-treated mineral fines (19 12 09) due to similar end-of-pipe diversion options and barriers
EPR	Extended producer responsibility, the responsibility of a producer for the environmentally sound management of a product until the end of its life
EWC code	European Waste Catalogue code, used in Scotland and across the UK for classifying waste, and sometimes referred to as the ‘list of wastes’
GHG	Greenhouse gas
LCA	Lifecycle analysis, a process of evaluating the effects that a product has on the environment throughout its production, use and disposal
LOI	Loss on ignition testing, introduced by HM Revenue and Customs in 2015, is used to determine the organic content of waste fines, helping prevent misclassification for landfill tax purposes: fines with less than 10% LOI qualify for a lower tax rate
RS	Revenue Scotland
SAT	Scottish Aggregates Tax, due to replace the UK AGL from 1 April 2026
SEPA	Scottish Environment Protection Agency
SLfT	Scottish Landfill Tax
SWEFT	Scottish Waste Environmental Footprint Tool, developed by Zero Waste Scotland, quantifies the environmental impact of household waste on a whole lifecycle basis
WAC	Waste acceptance criteria test is used to assess how waste will behave once landfilled, primarily by analysing leachate to determine suitability for disposal.
WTN	Waste transfer note, a document that details the transfer of waste from one person or organisation to another

Introduction

Research context and aims

The Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT) was introduced in April 2015, following the devolution of landfill taxation under the Scotland Act 2012. It replaced the UK Landfill Tax in Scotland and was designed to discourage landfill disposal and encourage adherence to the waste hierarchy. This hierarchy prioritises prevention, reuse, recycling, and energy recovery over landfill.

The tax is collected and administered by Revenue Scotland and has two rates. The standard rate, which covers materials more likely to pollute the environment or generate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, will be £126.15 per tonne in 2025-26. The lower rate is £4.05 per tonne as of April 2025 (Revenue Scotland, 2024b). The lower rate applies to materials considered to have low GHG emissions, limited pollution risks, and no hazardous properties when landfilled. For instance, ceramics, glass, soil and stones, and various mixtures of inert materials. Both rates were raised incrementally each year from 2015-16 to 2024-25, and increased by around 24% in April 2025-26 (Revenue Scotland, 2024a).

However, there is a large, widening gap between the rates, and the criteria and conditions for setting them have remained unchanged since 2016. This prompts questions about whether the lower rate continues to align with Scotland’s evolving environmental priorities. It also offers opportunities for policy development, which this research explores. The timing of this study is particularly relevant: a UK Government consultation on landfill tax reform is underway at the time of the publication of this study, concluding in July 2025 (HM Treasury and HMRC, 2025). Moreover, in 2024, the Welsh Government implemented an increase to its lower rate. These developments signal a wider shift in approach across the UK, and this research aims to inform future decision-making in Scotland as part of that wave of change.

Tonnages of landfilled waste have steadily declined over the past decade, but standard rate materials have dropped fastest. In early 2024, the quantity of lower rate materials exceeded that of standard rate materials for the first time. Figure 1 shows the gap between standard rate material (in orange) and lower rate material (in teal) has narrowed in the last 5 years. The widening gap between the lower and higher tax rates has also increased concerns about whether this is driving waste misclassification and crime. It is hard to determine a clear trend related to the landfilling of lower rate material in the years since 2020.

Figure 1: Tonnes of taxable waste declared by quarter in Scotland (source: Revenue Scotland)

The upcoming ban on landfilling biodegradable municipal waste, effective from the end of 2025, is expected to accelerate this trend (Scottish Government, 2022). It is therefore timely to focus in on lower rate materials to assess if SLfT is still serving its purpose. The Scottish Government has committed to explore whether changes may be needed to this or related policy levers, to support progress towards a low-carbon, circular economy (Scottish Government, 2024a).

The SLfT intended to support Scotland’s environmental objectives, which include

Reducing the volume of waste sent to landfill.
Lowering GHG emissions.
Minimising pollution risks in landfill environments.
Promoting the application of the waste hierarchy.

Scotland’s waste and resources policies have evolved since the landfill tax was introduced. They are now strongly oriented towards the objectives set out in the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024 and the Circular Economy and Waste Route Map to 2030 (Scottish Government, 2024a). These provide a framework for increasing resource efficiency and reducing reliance on landfill. Specific information on these can be found in Appendix A.

The Route Map commits to developing a residual waste plan to 2045 and reviewing materials currently landfilled to identify alternative management routes by 2027. The SLfT legislation allows for additional lower rates to be created in support of future policy (Scottish Government, 2022).

Scotland’s net zero targets and biodiversity strategy were introduced in light of the twin climate and biodiversity crises. They have reinforced the need for waste and resources policies that support decarbonisation across all sectors. Most environmental impacts associated with resource use take place before materials are disposed of. A circular economy, with an emphasis on resource efficiency and waste prevention, is therefore essential for meeting Scotland’s environmental objectives. SLfT should be evaluated in this context, considering not only tonnages landfilled but the whole-life environmental impacts of materials.

Project objective, aims and research questions

The overarching objective of this research is to evaluate the effectiveness of the lower rate of SLfT in supporting Scotland’s environmental policy objectives. These policy objectives include reducing the volume of waste sent to landfill, lowering GHG emissions, minimising pollution risks, and encouraging materials to move up the waste hierarchy.

This research supports policy development by assessing whether the lower rate of SLfT remains effective in advancing Scotland’s environmental objectives. It also examines whether adjustments to the tax or related policy levers could accelerate progress towards these objectives. Specifically, this study aims to:

evaluate the effectiveness of the lower rate in supporting Scotland’s environmental goals;
identify the lower-rate materials that have the greatest environmental impact;
explore waste prevention and diversion options for lower-rate materials and their feasibility;
assess key barriers to reducing reliance on lower-rate landfill disposal;
examine how the SLfT interacts with other fiscal and non-fiscal waste and environmental management policies and identify areas for future research and policy interventions.

To achieve these aims, the following research questions are addressed:

Which materials landfilled at the lower rate rank the highest in terms of quantity and negative environmental impacts?
What diversion options and alternative treatments exist for these materials, and how feasible are they in light of technical, market, and policy barriers?
What are the key barriers to reducing the volume of materials landfilled at the lower rate, and how can they be addressed?
How does the SLfT intersect with other fiscal and non-fiscal waste management and environmental policies, and what options exist to strengthen policy?

This report provides an initial evidence base for discussions on potential changes to the lower rate of SLfT. It does not present a cost-benefit analysis of policy options. It highlights the highest-impact materials and presents opportunities to divert from landfill, noting key barriers.

These findings aim to contribute to ongoing policy discussions and future research,

in support of Scotland’s transition to a low-carbon, circular economy.

Methodology

This study was conducted from December 2024 to March 2025 by Resource Futures and Aether, in collaboration with a steering group comprising the ClimateXChange research lead and representatives of the Scottish Government, SEPA and Revenue Scotland. It followed a three-stage approach (see Figure 2).

We designed the methodology to provide an initial evidence base to progress policy development. Robust data analysis was used to identify key materials and focus future research. Key materials were determined based on impact.

Figure 2: Research approach

We used quantitative and qualitative data analysis, a literature review, and stakeholder engagement to support this approach. Table 1 below summarises each research stage and corresponding data collection methods. These are further detailed in Appendices B and C.

Table 1: Data collection methods by research stage

Data collection methods	Research stage
Data collection methods	Prioritisation of materials	Review of diversion and prevention options	Policy assessment
Weight-based EWC code analysis	X
Environmental impacts analysis	X
Desk-based research		X	X
Stakeholder engagement	X	X	X

In the first stage, we assessed tonnage and environmental impacts data on materials landfilled at the lower rate. This enabled us to prioritise the top three material streams.

We analysed tonnage data by EWC code, or groups of codes where necessary. This relied on data obtained from SEPA and Revenue Scotland. To assess environmental impacts, we used the Scottish Waste Environmental Footprint Tool (SWEFT). This covers a range of environmental indicators, including GHG emissions, resource depletion, and pollution potential (Zero Waste Scotland, 2024). We refined our understanding of the top material streams, through engagement with waste management operators, industry experts, policymakers, and the project steering group.

In the second stage, we examined opportunities to move lower-rate materials up the waste hierarchy. A high-level literature review identified prevention, reuse, recycling, and recovery options, assessing their technical feasibility. Stakeholder interviews provided further insights into potential diversion options and barriers to these.

In the final stage, we reviewed how the lower rate of SLfT interacts with related policies. We used desk-based research to review other relevant measures and draw comparisons with landfill taxation in other jurisdictions. Engagement with policymakers and regulators provided insights into how the tax operates in practice. We identified areas where further research is needed to address gaps or unintended consequences.

For the stakeholder engagement, we conducted eight in-depth, semi-structured interviews, and gathered additional insights via email, in January to March 2025. Further details of the methodology, including the stakeholder engagement, can be found in Appendix C.

Quantitative data review to determine priority materials

This section sets out how we identified the three highest-impact material streams taxed at the lower rate, which are assessed in more detail in Sections 5 and 6.

We first give a summary of the process for preparing and classifying waste for landfill in Scotland (Section 4.1). We then present findings by weight based on Revenue Scotland and SEPA data (Section 4.3) then on the weighted environmental impact of materials (Section 4.4). This forms the basis for prioritising lower-rate materials summarised in Section 4.5.

Introduction to classifying and preparing waste for landfill in Scotland

For waste to be landfilled in Scotland, waste producing businesses must follow a structured process to ensure compliance with environmental regulations. This process involves multiple parties, including waste producers, skip operators, transfer station operators, landfill operators, and regulators such as SEPA and Revenue Scotland.

Key steps in preparing waste for landfill include:

Waste identification – determining the type of waste based on its source, composition, and potential hazards.
Waste characterisation – including chemical analysis and testing (where required) to assess hazardous properties and biodegradability.
Waste classification – the waste is assigned a European Waste Catalogue (EWC) code by the waste producer. EWC codes must be included on waste transfer notes (for non-hazardous waste) and hazardous waste consignment notes. These documents accompany waste during its movement and disposal and are checked by waste carriers, site operators, and regulators.
Pre-treatment and landfill acceptance requirements – including necessary treatment to reduce environmental impact, compliance with landfill permit conditions, and landfill waste acceptance criteria (WAC) testing, where required.
Documentation and record-keeping – maintenance of records, results and transfer documentation to ensure legal compliance.

Two key documents to support businesses in meeting these obligations are:

Waste Classification Technical Guidance (WM3) (SEPA et al, 2015): The guidance, co-produced by SEPA, Natural Resources Wales, Northern Ireland Environment Agency, and Environment Agency, provides comprehensive instructions on identifying whether waste possesses hazardous properties.
Criteria and Procedures for the Acceptance of Waste at Landfills (Scotland) Direction 2005 (Scottish Government, 2012a): The document gives criteria and procedures for waste acceptance at landfills, ensuring compliance with environmental standards. WAC are described in the accompanying ‘Schedule’ to this Direction.

SEPA holds responsibility for governance of compliance and therefore holds national level data on the transfer and treatment of waste into, within, and out of landfills in Scotland. As regulator of the SLfT, Revenue Scotland holds parallel data obtained through tax returns. The anonymised data from Revenue Scotland, alongside SEPA’s, underpins the analysis presented in the following section.

While many elements of the landfill preparation process are legal requirements, some practices – such as separating certain materials for recovery – are strongly encouraged by regulators or industry bodies due to viable diversion routes or market demand. These distinctions are important context for the findings presented later in this report.

Overview of waste data analysis

This section presents a summary of analysis performed on waste tonnages data provided by SEPA, and SLfT returns data from Revenue Scotland which was anonymised for the purposes of this study. The data provided by SEPA and Revenue Scotland are categorised by EWC code (European Commission, 2000). These data insights can be used to help progress policy development.

EWC codes are a list of waste descriptions used in all UK nations and EU member states. However, as explained in detail in Section 5.3, EWC codes do not directly correlate to SLfT rates. EWC codes must be used on waste transfer notes and hazardous waste consignment notes. The submission of waste transfer notes also comes with ‘operator descriptions’ to further explain the EWC code categorisation. There are around 650 individual codes split across 20 ‘chapters’. The chapter typically defines the industry or source of waste; however, some definitions are more material- or process-based. Despite the large library of codes, some remain broad in scope. This means that use of the EWC codes within a dataset does not automatically achieve transparency or traceability in terms of material definitions.

For this report, descriptors have been adopted for each EWC code, or group of codes, present within the lower-rate tonnages data provided by Revenue Scotland. These are outlined in Table below.

Table 2: EWC codes within the lower tax rate in Scotland

EWC code/ group of codes^[1]	Descriptor
19 12 12	Mechanically-treated fines
17 05 04	Soil and stones from C&D waste
19 12 09	Mechanically-treated mineral fines
19 03 05, 19 05 99, 19 12 05, 19 13 06, 20 01 02, 20 01 99, 20 03 01, 20 03 03, 20 03 99^[2]	Mixed household waste and outputs of waste treatment
19 01 12	Incinerator bottom ash and slag
19 01 02, 19 01 11, 19 01 14, 19 01 16, 19 02 09, 19 02 99	Niche materials from incineration, pyrolysis or chemical waste treatment
17 01 07	Mixed minerals (concrete, bricks, tiles, ceramics) from C&D waste
01 04 08, 01 04 09, 01 04 10, 01 05 07, 02 01 03	Niche materials mainly from mining and quarrying
17 01 02, 17 01 03, 17 02 02, 17 05 06, 17 06 04, 17 09 04	Niche materials from C&D waste
06 01 99, 07 01 12, 07 07 12, 10 01 01, 10 01 17, 10 02 01, 10 03 05, 10 11 03	Niche materials from chemical and thermal processes
20 02 02	Soil and stones from municipal waste (gardens, parks, recreation)
12 01 07, 12 01 17, 15 01 07, 16 01 20, 16 03 04, 16 11 02	Mixed niche materials, including from end-of-life vehicles
17 01 01	Concrete

We ranked the data from Revenue Scotland on lower-rate waste to landfill by weight. Data from SEPA for each matching EWC code, or group of codes, was then used to identify the amount of each material landfilled at lower rate as a proportion of the total landfilled. This allowed for prioritisation based on overall tonnage of lower rate material. Further information on steps for data cleansing and review is provided in Appendix B.

Results show the largest quantities landfilled in Scotland by material (at both lower and standard rate), in the financial year 2023 to 2024, were soil and stones, mechanically-treated fines and mechanically-treated mineral fines.

It is important to note that the data presented does not account for exemptions, meaning the reported tonnages are likely an underestimate of the actual quantities of waste generated. Exemptions are highlighted later in the report throughout Sections 6 and 7.

Figure 3 below highlights how the ranking changes when considering only materials landfilled at lower rate (in teal) with results for standard rate material also shown (in orange). The top three materials by weight are:

19 12 12: Mechanically-treated fines (fine particles left over from mechanical waste processing)
17 05 04: Soil and stones (non-hazardous soils and stones from C&D waste)
19 12 09: Mechanically-treated mineral fines (fine particles of minerals, e.g. sand and stones, left over from mechanical waste processing)
These three materials make up 77% of the material landfilled at lower rate in 2023-24. The analysis shows that most mechanically-treated fines and mechanically-treated mineral fines are landfilled at the lower rate. In comparison, only a small portion of soil and stones is landfilled at the lower rate.

Figure 3: Tonnage of waste to landfill at standard and lower tax rates by EWC code, 2023-2024.

Analysis of waste quantities and composition data

We identified short-term trends for each material. We also reviewed operator descriptions in the SEPA data to better understand the materials and their origins. Summaries are presented for the three material groups landfilled in the greatest quantities at the lower rate of tax. These are presented in order with the highest tonnage first.

Mechanically-treated fines: EWC 19 12 12

This non-hazardous material group contains fine particle rejects from mechanical waste processing, including sorting, crushing, pelletising and compacting, as well as a minority share of anaerobic digestion residue. A more detailed description is provided in Section 5.1.

Approximately 60% of mechanically-treated fines were landfilled at the lower rate of tax in 2023-24. As shown through SEPA and Revenue Scotland data in Figure 4 below, the overall quantity landfilled has decreased over the most recent three-year period. However, the quantity landfilled at lower rate (in teal) has increased, while the quantity landfilled at standard rate (in orange) has decreased.

For context, the quantity landfilled under the lower rate was consistently under 200,000 tonnes before 2020. This increased sharply to a peak in 2022-23, before declining slightly again in 2023-24, but remaining well over pre-2020 levels.

Figure 4: Tonnage of waste to landfill at standard and lower tax rates for the three priority materials from 2021 to 2024.

Soils and stones from construction waste: EWC 17 05 04

The soils and stones EWC code group is for non-hazardous materials and results from construction and demolition waste. It is restricted to topsoil, peat, subsoil and stones only. Therefore, soil waste classification testing must take place to determine if soils are non-hazardous or inert (qualifying for the lower rate), or hazardous (standard rate). More information is provided in Section 5.2.

Approximately 21% of soils and stones was landfilled at the lower rate in 2023-24. Figure 4 shows that both the total quantity landfilled (ie the combined teal and orange bars), and the quantity landfilled at lower rate (in teal), have decreased from a 2021-22 peak. As a result, the portion of this waste group landfilled at the lower rate has remained stable over the most recent three years.

Based on the operator descriptions submitted with the waste transfer notes, this EWC material group contained just over 12,000 tonnes (2.2%) of ‘contaminated’ soil in 2023-24. It should be noted that contaminated is not equivalent to ‘hazardous’. Descriptions of this EWC code attached to records of larger waste quantities simply state “contaminated soil” with no further specificity. Descriptions accompanying some of the smaller quantities of lower-rate waste have mention of contamination by Japanese knotweed.

In addition, around 10,000 tonnes (1.8%) was recorded as having traces of asbestos in 2023-24, almost entirely from one waste record. This was much higher than any records mentioning traces of asbestos for previous years.

These findings highlight uncertainty around the application of WAC testing to this code. Soil and stones containing hazardous substances may potentially have been misclassified under the non-hazardous code 17 05 04, instead of its hazardous counterpart, 17 05 03. From stakeholder interviews, it is understood that misclassification is likely to contribute to the large quantity of soil and stones being disposed of under this material group.

Mechanically-treated mineral fines: EWC 19 12 09

This material group is classified as fines from naturally occurring rocks and soils, silt, clay, sand and stones. It is non-hazardous. A more detailed description is available in Section 5.1.

76% of this material group was landfilled at the lower rate of tax in 2023-24, which was similar to the portion in 2022-23. Looking further back, the quantity landfilled at lower rate peaked at just over 120,000 tonnes in 2019-20, before a significant decline in the following two COVID years. Quantities landfilled at the lower rate have bounced back slightly but not to pre-COVID levels.

As shown in Figure 4 above, this material group is landfilled in proportionally greater quantities under the lower rate (in teal) than the standard rate (in orange).

Baseline environmental impact of materials

We used Zero Waste Scotland’s SWEFT data to provide a high-level assessment of how the materials landfilled at lower rate may impact the environment. This enabled us to check whether any lower-tonnage material groups warranted further attention due to their disproportionately higher environmental impacts.

The tonnages for 2023-24 were multiplied by lifecycle-based SWEFT factors. Lifecycle-based SWEFT factors consider the entire environmental impact of a material, from extraction to disposal, which helps assess its true ecological footprint. This produced a weighted impact for each material group against each of SWEFT’s six environmental indicators. Further information on methods and assumptions in application of SWEFT is provided in Appe ndix B.

Because SWEFT factors covers a range of environmental impacts, they cannot be aggregated into a single, comparable “score”. To visualise and compare relative impacts, we used a spider diagram (see Figure 5), which presents the results for the top six material groups landfilled at lower rate in Scotland during 2023-4.

Figure 5 below shows that the top three material groups by tonnage also have the greatest environmental impacts. These materials – mechanically-treated fines, soil and stones, and mechanically-treated mineral fines – are shown in the colours teal, dark orange and black respectively .

Mechanically-treated fines are estimated to have the largest weighted impacts on air pollution, mineral resource scarcity, water consumption and land use. Soil and stones, and mechanically-treated mineral fines, have the next-highest impacts for the same indicators.

One mixed material group (shown in light orange) scores highest on GHG emissions and biodiversity. However, this group, was found to be almost entirely made up of drill cuttings in 2023/24 based on operator descriptions within the SEPA data. As a result, we chose to describe this as a niche material (see Table 2). This results in a high environmental impact but with high uncertainty.

No other material groups were flagged as priorities for further research based on this high-level analysis of environmental impacts. As such, the three lower-rate material groups landfilled in highest quantities were prioritised for further research.

Figure 5: SWEFT tool results presented by material and relative environmental impact (only top six scoring material groups are shown)

Priority materials and supporting interview data

From the analysis of tonnage landfilled and environmental impact assessment, three material groups were prioritised: soils and stones, mechanically-treated fines, and mechanically-treated mineral fines. These materials accounted for 77% of lower-rate landfilled waste in 2023-24 and had some of the highest environmental impacts, particularly on air pollution, resource scarcity, and land use.

Grouped codes of niche materials were excluded due to data limitations: (i) they consist of multiple waste types with varying, and unknown, compositions and quantities, and (ii) the lack of specificity meant the assessment of environmental indicators relied more on generalised assumptions.

Focusing on the three dominant materials enabled targeted research into impactful interventions to reduce landfill and improve resource recovery. This selection was also verified through analysis of interviewee responses. For example:

Mechanically treated fines, mechanically-treated mineral fines and soils and stones were confirmed as the main materials: “They are the majority of materials in the lower rate.” (Commercial remediation company interview); “A lot of the lower rate material will essentially be fines.” (C&D waste management processor)
Most high-quality materials are already reused in construction: “The only reason construction companies take things off sites now is because they can’t use it.” (C&D skip operator)
Mechanically-treated fines come from transfer stations and skip waste: “Mechanical fines come from transfer stations and sorting of skips waste. Skip operators generate the majority of the fines in the Scottish market.” (Commercial remediation company)
Mechanical-treated fines create challenges for waste management: “Mechanically-treated fines are the top waste we question whether the rate is right.” (SEPA interview) and “we tend to stay away from mechanically-treated fines, because the administration and risk of misclassification sits with us.” (Commercial landfill operator)

Complexities in the categorisation of priority materials

Determining when a material qualifies for the lower rate is not straightforward. This is due to the complex properties of the lower-rate materials, the sources of these materials and the different classification systems used in policy. To aid in understanding, this section outlines what the three priority material streams comprise, the sources of these materials and their link to categorisations in Scottish policy.

Mechanical fines: EWC 19 12 12 and 19 12 09

Two of the priority materials, mechanically-treated fines and mechanically-treated mineral fines, belong to the same EWC chapter 19 12. This chapter refers to waste from the mechanical treatment of waste, for example sorting, crushing, compacting or pelletising (Dsposal, n.d.). These are commonly referred to as trommel fines, or mechanical fines (typically 10-40mm).

Fines that qualify for the lower rate under both waste codes largely come from construction and demolition (C&D) waste and, therefore, share similar diversion options and barriers which are discussed in Section 6. The term ‘mechanical fines’ is used hereafter as shorthand when these two categories of fines are discussed together.

The key distinction between the codes is their composition:

Mechanically treated mineral fines (EWC 19 12 09): Primarily from excavation and mechanical treatment of quarry waste, C&D waste, and aggregate recycling (WRAP and Environment Agency, 2013). Composition is relatively uniform.
Mechanically treated fines (EWC 19 12 12): Includes fines from mixed C&D waste, municipal recyclate, and residual waste. Fines qualifying for the lower rate are primarily from mixed C&D waste due to higher inert content (Di Maria et al., 2013; Vincent et al., 2022). Composition is far more varied.

The interview findings and other data suggest that mechanical fines – whether classified under EWC 19 12 09 or 19 12 12 – are commonly produced at transfer stations and through the mechanical sorting of skip waste, particularly when handling C&D material. Composition is mostly crushed bricks, tiles, concrete, and ceramics – similar to mineral fines (the same as mechanically-treated mineral fines). However, the code can also include additional inert materials, including fines from the mechanical treatment to recycle furnace slags, bottom ash, and plasterboard to recover gypsum^[3] (Environment Agency, 2023a; Environment Agency, 2023b).

To summarise, both types of mechanical fines may contain a small amount of contamination and non-qualifying material, but can still be eligible for the lower rate if they meet the conditions set out in Article 4 of the 2016 Order. To qualify, fines must either consist entirely of qualifying material or contain only a minimal amount of non-qualifying material, must not be artificially mixed or hazardous under WM3, and must pass the Loss on Ignition (LOI) test with a result of 10% or less (Revenue Scotland, n.d.). Otherwise, they are subject to the standard rate.

Some waste producers intentionally misclassify mechanical fines to avoid the higher rate of tax, using blending techniques to bring LOI values down (Ali, 2023; SEPA, C&D waste management processor interview, commercial landfill operator interview). Many small- to medium-sized skip operators handle this waste, making enforcement difficult (waste industry association and commercial remediation company interview).

Soils and stones from construction waste: EWC 17 05 04

The EWC code 17 05 04 refers to non-hazardous soils and stones from C&D waste (including excavated material from contaminated sites) (Dsposal, n.d.; Environmental Standards Scotland, 2024; Katsumi, 2015; Commercial remediation company interview; C&D waste management processor interview). In Scotland, this material becomes waste after removal from a site. It can be used for work on site without being classified as waste.

Soils and stones require multiple tests. They must be classified as hazardous or non-hazardous following the WM3 classification. When subjected to testing it is likely for other materials to be found, which could make the soil active (non-inert), such as grass. Unless the contaminating materials are in small amounts and pass the soil LOI test, the whole load will be charged the standard rate. Non-hazardous soil and stone can only be disposed of in inert landfill sites and charged the lower rate if a WAC test confirms this is appropriate. A WAC test will determine the leaching ability of any contaminants in the soil.

Misalignment in waste code and policy guidance

This section compares EWC code definitions (Dsposal, n.d.), Revenue Scotland guidance (Revenue Scotland, n.d.), and SEPA guidance (SEPA, 2015) for the three priority materials.

The Scottish Landfill Tax (Qualifying Material) Order 2016 determines which materials qualify for the lower tax rate. There are seven groups of materials which qualify for the lower rate. However, these seven qualifying material groups and EWC codes do not align. This allows material to be classed as standard or lower rate under a single EWC code, as seen in the analysis of waste quantities (Section 4.3). Such misalignment is common in other jurisdictions in the UK and beyond with the widespread use of EWC codes and varying landfill policies.

Table 3 below presents a systematic review of the EWC codes for the priority three materials against other categorisations in Scottish policy. This provides a more specific, detailed understanding of these material streams.

Soils and stones (EWC 17 05 04) are the most straightforward to categorise, aligning clearly with Group 1 (Rocks and soils) and with no additional SEPA definitions or overlaps.

In contrast, mechanically treated fines (EWC 19 12 12) are the most complex to classify. As discussed in Section 5.1, this code can encompass materials across all seven qualifying groups, depending on source and composition, making consistent classification more challenging and reliant on testing and operator descriptions.

Table : Alignment of priority EWC codes with SLfT and SEPA definitions

Priority material	Mechanically treated mineral fines	Mechanically treated fines	Soil and stones
EWC code	EWC 19 12 09	EWC 19 12 12	EWC 17 05 04
EWC chapter	EWC 19 12: the mechanical treatment of waste, for example sorting, crushing, compacting or pelletising (Dsposal, n.d).	EWC 19 12: the mechanical treatment of waste, for example sorting, crushing, compacting or pelletising (Dsposal, n.d).	EWC 17 05: soil (including excavated soil from contaminated sites), stones and dredging spoil.
The Scottish Landfill Tax (Qualifying Material) Order 2016 groups	Group 1: Rocks and soils. Group 3: Minerals.	Group 1: Rocks and soils. Group 2: Ceramic and concrete materials. Group 3: Minerals. Group 4: Fines from the mechanical treatment to recycle furnace slags. Group 5: Fines from the mechanical treatment to recycle bottom ash. Group 6: Low activity inorganic compounds. Group 7: Fines from the mechanical treatment of plasterboard to recover gypsum.	Group 1: Rocks and soils.
SEPA definitions (SEPA, 2015)	Fines from processing naturally occurring rocks and soils (e.g. group 1). Fines from processing wholly inert bricks, tiles and concrete (e.g. group 3).	Fines from processing municipal recyclate or residual waste. Fines from the processing of mixed C&D waste.	No further definitions given.

Waste prevention and landfill diversion options

In this section, we outline findings on the end-of-pipe and upstream diversion options for the three priority materials described in Section 5: mechanically-treated fines, mechanically-treated mineral fines, and soils and stones. A preliminary feasibility assessment of these technologies is also presented.

‘End-of-pipe’ diversion options involve reprocessing materials that have already been classified as waste, to divert them from landfill. ‘Upstream’ diversion options entail keeping materials at their highest value and reducing waste generation. For mechanical fines, this means preventing C&D waste from being mechanically treated (for example, keeping bricks as bricks). For soil and stones, it involves direct reuse.

We use the term ‘mechanical fines’ where the diversion options relate to both mechanically-treated fines and mechanically-treated mineral fines.

Mechanical fines: End-of-pipe diversion

This section outlines the diversion options and associated barriers for mechanical fines.

As some common challenges were identified, Section 6.1.1 first identifies overarching barriers relevant to all the diversion options. These barriers provide essential context for Sections 6.1.2 to 6.1.5.

Overarching barriers

Due to their complex and variable composition and technical processing requirements, mechanical fines are difficult, risky and costly to recover. According to a waste management company representative interviewed, currently only large- and medium-sized regional players are able to recover a proportion of mechanically-treated fines.

Material complexity (technical barrier): Mechanical fines contain mixed materials, sometimes requiring washing to remove contaminants (Burdier et al., 2022). Differing physical and chemical properties, including composition and size, affect the feasibility of end-of-pipe recovery (Hernandez Garcia et al., 2024). This is further impacted by Scotland’s wet climate, which reduces the effectiveness of dry screening technologies (as highlighted in research conducted by Ricardo for ClimateXChange, due to be published in summer 2025). Composition testing to match materials to diversion options is expensive. Virgin materials are often easier and cheaper to use.
Contamination (health and safety barrier): Heavy metals in some mechanical fines pose health and safety risks, limiting recovery (Oujana & Sanchez, 2018). Washing removes some contaminants (Vincent et al., 2022), but can create toxic wastewater and solid waste requiring further treatment (Cottrell, Ali and Etienne, 2024). The circularity benefits should be weighed against the resources and power needed to wash and process fines.
Processing infrastructure (operational barrier): Washing plants remove silt and clay to produce clean aggregate. However, washing systems are expensive and often require bespoke designs so they do not clog processing systems, reducing efficiency (Vincent et al., 2022; C&D waste management processor interview). Stakeholders cite uncertain policies and tax implications as barriers to investment (C&D waste management processor, C&D skip operator and SEPA interviews).
LOI testing (health and safety and regulatory barrier): LOI determines whether fines qualify for the lower rate tax or if they can be reused (interviews with C&D waste management processor and Commercial landfill operatorSUEZ). One interviewee reported that use of LOI tests to achieve end-of-waste status for mechanical fines was not permitted by SEPA due to its uncertain composition:

“We tried for a couple of years to get end-of-waste status on this material because some of the material, it does look really good and it would serve a purpose in further aspects of construction. But they’re very adamant that it’s a big no, because of the testing and because this material doesn’t come from a single source. You can’t test it as a single source, so it’s a bit of an unknown.” (C&D waste management)

Liability (enforcement barrier): The current liability structure is a barrier to diversion, as it places the risk of misclassification on landfill operators rather than waste producers. This reduces producers’ incentive to ensure accurate classification or pursue upstream diversion. With no direct repercussions, producers can intentionally or unintentionally misclassify mechanical fines as lower-rate material (see Section 5.3).

The following sections detail end-of-pipe diversion options for mechanical fines, noting more specific barriers to mechanically-treated mineral and mechanically-treated fines where relevant.

Landfill/quarry cover, engineering and restoration

Inert mechanical fines are used for engineering and landscaping, such as quarries and pavement base layers, or for daily landfill cover. There is demand in Scotland for such uses, particularly due to a shortage of soils and stones (commercial landfill operator interview). While this can support diversion from landfill, it can waste nutrient-rich fines that might be better suited for agricultural use (Renella, 2021).

Recycled aggregate

Mechanically-treated mineral fines can be stored on site for six months and reused as aggregate without a waste licence under the Waste Management Licensing (Scotland) Regulations 2011 (schedule 1, paragraph 19). Mechanically-treated fines do not qualify for this exemption, however, and SEPA does not include them as waste suitable for the manufacture of recycled aggregate (SEPA, 2013).

Recycled aggregates (from crushed bricks, ceramics, and concrete) are used in roads, railways, and non-structural concrete production. Their carbon footprint can be lower than virgin aggregates when transport distances are short (ClimateXChange and Ricardo, 2025).

Reducing the environmental impact of concrete through recovery of inert fines has received a lot of research interest. For example, in 2023, 934 publications about reuse of clay waste (e.g. brick powder) in cement mixtures were published (Hernández García, Monteiro and Lopera, 2024). Studies suggest the material could replace 10-20% of virgin sand in non-structural concrete (Mansoor, Hama, Hamdullah, 2024; Ali, 2023; Zhao, et al., 2020). Despite the diversion potential for fines, innovations have not been scaled up commercially as virgin aggregates are favoured (European Commission, 2023).

Barriers:

Recycled aggregates have different properties to natural aggregates and suit only low to moderate strength concrete (European Commission, 2023; Ali, 2023; Transport Scotland et al., 2020; commercial landfill operator interview; Ferriz-Papi and Thomas, 2020).
Fine material can be inappropriate for some filling activities. For example, fines can be too smooth for use in layers for road-based applications (Burdier et al., 2022). It could be beneficial to consider other diversion options that suit these physical properties, such as reuse in paint to improve grip, rather than invest in technologies to change them.
Quality and supply of fines are inconsistent (European Commission, 2023).
Despite a high concentration of wash plants in Scotland (C&D waste management processor interview), mechanical fines require further space and infrastructure investment to be diverted to precast or ready-mixed concrete plants (European Commission, 2023).
Wet fines from wash plants require more cement in concrete mixtures, increasing resource use and cost (commercial remediation company interview). Raw material and energy savings from using recycled aggregate need to be balanced against these impacts.
The lack of market uptake of recycled aggregates is likely due to a lack of know-how by concrete producers and trained personnel for recycled aggregates production (ClimateXChange and Ricardo, 2025; European Commission, 2023; Hernández García, Monteiro and Lopera, 2024).

Land treatment and agricultural soil improvement

Inert mechanical fines can improve land, for example, by stabilising soil through land remediation or as a fertiliser for agriculture (Manning and Vetterlein, 2004; Burlakov, et al., 2021; Ali, 2023). This could be a positive diversion option for mechanically-treated mineral fines that are less useful for construction purposes (Renella, 2021).

Mechanically-treated fines can help replenish nutrients to the soil and reduce reliance on commercial fertilisers (Braga et al., 2019; Szmidt and Ferguson, 2004; Campe, Kittrede and Klinger, 2012). By mixing these fines with organic materials, they can create a soil-like material for plants to grow in. Some fine particles, like clay, silt or ash, help keep the organic matter stable (Haynes, Zhou and Weng, 2021; Renella, 2021).

Mechanically-treated fines contain a mixture of these materials. However, the UK Government restricts the use of soil substitutes made from mechanically-treated fines as opposed to mechanically-treated mineral fines (Environment Agency, 2023b). This can only be done under specific permits, such as for landfill restoration schemes, and when ecological improvement is also demonstrable.

In Scotland, under the Waste Management Licensing (Scotland) Regulations 2011 (schedule 1, paragraph 9), exemptions allow the use of mechanically-treated mineral fines on land for agriculture and ecological improvement. Waste companies in Scotland sometimes use mineral fines from skips to create compost for local agriculture (C&D skip operator interview). SEPA, who registers such activities, has reported that this exemption often results in farmers being paid to accept such waste to reduce landfill disposal costs (SEPA interview). However, it is uncertain how much is used for genuine purposes, and how much is diverted to avoid paying tax (C&D waste management processor interview).

Barriers:

Silt and clay fines, which are beneficial for soils, are generally landfilled and this is because of high contamination of heavy metals or presence of organic materials (Renella, 2021).
Nutrient content varies, limiting predictability of composition and related cost savings for farmers. For example, recycled mechanical fines with high nutrient content can reduce costs by 25%, whereas those with low nutrient content may increase costs by 9% (Braga et al., 2019).
Potential conflicts with regulation on fertilisers. For example, UK government restricts the use of soil substitutes made from mechanically-treated fines (Environment Agency, 2023b) and new EU regulations may exclude some fines from fertiliser use (Renella, 2021).

Gypsum fines recycling

Gypsum fines (within EWC 19 12 12) can be recovered from plasterboard and used to make new plasterboards, cement, blocks and bricks (commercial landfill operator interview; Suárez, Roca and Gasso, 2016). Gypsum can also be used to improve soil in land remediation, particularly in areas with alkalinity or heavy metal contamination. SEPA advises that this is acceptable for treating land that has been flooded by seawater (SEPA, n.d).

Waste owners are encouraged to separate gypsum from other waste for recovery, as there are feasible diversion options and “because there’s a good recycling market for gypsum” (waste industry association interview). However, according to a commercial landfill operator, the composition of mechanically-treated fines “tends to be quite high in plasterboard and gypsum, which then means that we struggle to control the gas and the odours”. Gypsum can only be disposed of in landfills where no biodegradable waste is accepted as it has hazardous properties, releasing gas and odour, when mixed with biodegradable waste (commercial landfill operator interview).

When the ban on biodegradable waste to landfill is introduced at the end of 2025, it will potentially make the lower-rate landfill of mechanically-treated waste containing gypsum easier. Additional incentives for diversion to counter this could be necessary.

Barriers:

Recycled gypsum has high market demand, but the lower rate categorisation encourages landfill over recycling (waste industry association interview, commercial remediation company interview, commercial landfill operator interview).
Heavy contamination of mechanical fines restricts the potential to find and extract gypsum (Suárez, Roca and Gasso, 2016).
Lack of incentives to enhance sorting of gypsum and plasterboard; and conversely incentives to process waste products containing gypsum into mechanical fines to qualify for the lower-rate tax (commercial landfill operator interview).

Mechanical fines: Upstream diversion

This section describes the upstream diversion options involving the reduction and reuse of concrete, bricks, tiles and ceramics. These options can prevent mechanical fines from being generated in the first place.

Reducing demolition through refurbishing and retrofitting

Refurbishing or repurposing buildings and assets extends their usable life, avoiding the generation of demolition waste. In doing so, it helps reduce both material use and embodied carbon, making it a key strategy for sustainable construction.

Lifecycle analysis (LCA) is a valuable tool for comparing the impacts of refurbishing and retrofitting with demolition and new build. While new builds may achieve lower operational carbon, they usually require more materials and result in more embodied carbon emissions. In many cases, this means retrofit has lower emissions overall.

Adopting a retrofit-first approach can reduce unnecessary demolition, prioritising reuse unless structures are severely derelict or face irreparable structural issues (Green Alliance, 2023; construction company interview). To support this, pre-demolition assessments could be introduced earlier in the planning process, ensuring that any proposed demolition is justified in terms of carbon and material impacts (Green Alliance, 2023).

Barriers:

VAT policy favours new builds (0%) over renovations (20%) (Green Alliance, 2023).
Current policies focus on reducing operational emissions, such the Heat in Buildings Strategy to increase energy efficiency (Scottish Government, 2021a), rather than embodied carbon emissions (Green Alliance, 2022).
Circular principles are underused in construction and infrastructure, such as rail infrastructure projects (O’Leary, Osmani and Goodier, 2024).

Reduction and reuse of construction materials

Reducing demand for materials in the design stage has the greatest impact on reducing the environmental impact of construction (Green Alliance, 2023). This is particularly important for cement, which is challenging to remove from a building for reuse. Reduction and reuse can be increased through circular construction tools and approaches, sometimes described as ‘modern methods of construction’. These can improve companies’ understanding of GHG emissions throughout their supply chains. Examples include modular buildings, digital tools such as material passports, offsite manufacturing, and sustainable material substitution (Green Alliance, 2023).

Barriers:

Current circular building standards are voluntary, such as the UK Net Zero Carbon Building Standard, and the Scottish Government’s Net Zero Public Sector Buildings Standard (Scottish Government, 2021b; UK Net Zero Carbon Building Standards, n.d.). Construction design is determined by the client. With voluntary initiatives, cost factors are more likely to win over environmental factors (Construction company interview).
There are no mandatory requirements for construction companies in Scotland to conduct an LCA or report scope 3 emissions (those in its upstream and downstream value chains, which typically include the majority of material-related impacts) (construction company interview; Green Alliance, 2022).
Skills shortages and inconsistent standards, for instance for LCAs and product passports, limit the sector’s ability to apply circular practices (Hurst and O’Donovan, 2024; construction company interview).
Certain industry practices lead to unnecessary waste. For example, to ensure they have enough supply, contractors will often order 5-10% surplus, which can be hard to reuse (construction company interview).
Sustainable construction materials often cost more (construction company interview).
Environmental benefits of modern methods of construction are not fully accounted for in public procurement and other financial investment opportunities (Green Alliance, 2023).

Designing for deconstruction

Designing buildings with future disassembly in mind allows more materials, especially bricks and tiles, to be reused instead of downcycled. Such direct reuse has a greater impact in reducing raw material use than recycling (Green Alliance, 2023). However, deconstruction should only be pursued if the building is not fit for repurposing (construction company interview).

Early sorting of demolition materials also improves recovery outcomes. Many mechanical fines are produced from mixed, unsorted demolition waste, which results in variable and lower-quality outputs. Sorting materials earlier produces cleaner, inert fines that are more straightforward to reuse (C&D waste management processor interview, SEPA interview).

A major barrier to recovery and recycling of mechanically-treated fines is their complexity and variability (Section 6.1.1). To minimise the challenges associated with this, upstream measures should support sorting at source, before waste reaches skips or waste transfer sites (C&D waste management processor interview, SEPA interview). Greater source separation would generate more inert-only fines, which are also easier to find uses for due to waste management exemptions.

Barriers:

Mainstream current and historical construction practices do not design for deconstruction (Arup and Ellen McArthur Foundation, 2020).
Investors are not incentivised to incorporate circularity principles in design, considering material recovery (Arup and Ellen McArthur Foundation, 2020).
Demand for low-quality recycled aggregate (Section 6.1.2) takes the focus away from higher-quality recycling and reuse.
Integrated C&D tools and requirements for identifying, classifying and certifying salvaged materials are lacking (construction company interview).

Soil and stones: End-of-pipe diversion

This section explores the end-of-pipe diversion options for soils and stones from construction waste (EWC 17 05 04). End-of-pipe diversion options are concerned with when the material is classified as waste, and is then reprocessed into another material. As there are many exemptions for soil and stones reuse, the main diversion options are upstream, occurring before waste classification. The main end-of-pipe diversion option is to produce recycled aggregates.

Recycled aggregates

Soils can be washed to separate sand, gravel, and stone from contaminants, especially on brownfield sites, and reused as aggregate in construction (Magnusson et al., 2015; Choi et al., 2018; waste industry association interview).

Barriers:

Recycled aggregate is more expensive than virgin materials (Magnusson et al., 2015; commercial remediation company interview). Quarrying for natural aggregate is cheaper and more accessible (commercial remediation company and waste industry association interviews).
Soil remediation technologies are not widely used in Scotland (C&D skip operator interview).
Fluctuations in cost and quality lead to inconsistent demand, impacting the feasibility of supply. For example, a facility failed in 2016 due to lack of demand (commercial landfill operator interview). There is good supply in Scotland of recycled quarry materials, but demand is low (commercial remediation company interview).
There is low industry understanding of how to use recycled aggregates. For example, road projects where the ground is damp tend to require natural aggregates; recycled aggregates are more applicable for farm tracks, because they meet requirements for tractors more easily than cars (C&D skip operator interview).
There is a higher recycling and reuse rate for soils and aggregates on site; what is taken off site tends to be less usable (C&D skip operator interview).

Soil and stones: Upstream diversion options

This section covers how soils and stones can be kept on site or reused at another site under exemptions, avoiding classification as waste.

Landfill/quarry cover, engineering and restoration

Soils and stones are used for temporary or final landfill cover, haul roads within a site, and restoring quarry sites. In landfill restoration, layers of subsoil and topsoil must be added, to enable development of vegetation (SEPA, 2018).

In Scotland, exemptions from SLfT apply under the Waste Management Licensing (Scotland) Regulations 2011 (Schedule 1, paragraph 9). This relates to where soil and stones treat land for agricultural or ecological benefit. Soil and stones are not subject to the same per-hectare limits for infilling agricultural land as other waste types (Waste Management Licensing Regulations, Schedule 2, paragraph 2), making it easier to divert them in larger quantities.

Barriers:

Fewer landfills are operational. The number has declined since 2005 (SEPA, 2023) and this is expected to reduce further after the ban on landfilling biodegradable municipal waste (interviews with commercial remediation company; waste industry association; large public body).

Landscaping and construction

On-site reuse of soils reduces transportation and storage issues, making it the most cost-effective option (commercial remediation company interview). Transfer to another work site requires a waste management licence or exemption. Exemptions apply where soils and stones are used to treat land, provided certain conditions are met (Waste Management Licensing (Scotland) Regulations 2011, Schedule 1, Paragraph 7).

SEPA has issued regulatory guidance to support the sustainable reuse of greenfield soils which are soils from undeveloped, uncontaminated land. The soil must be used for a specified purpose, identified before excavation begins, and transfer must be approved by SEPA. Purposes may include the operational land of railways or land which is woodland, park, garden, verge, landscaped area, sports or recreation ground, churchyard or cemetery.

Interviewees indicated that practices for coordinating soil reuse in Scotland vary between projects based on developers (commercial remediation company and engineering consultancy interview). Public sector contracts sometimes include reuse requirements, while private contracts typically show less incentive. Carbon considerations are an emerging driver for on-site reuse, where these materials are less ideal than virgin quarry materials but still meet requirements (engineering consultancy interview).

Barriers:

The UK has over 700 soil types requiring thorough classification by type (topsoil/subsoil) and hazard level (hazardous/non-hazardous, active/inactive) prior to reuse (The Royal Society, 2020; Soil Association, 2021).
Mismatches in soil type, availability, project timelines, and storage requirements often hinder reuse (Thompson, 2021; Choi et al., 2018; Hale et al., 2021; Marasini et al., 2012; SEPA, commercial remediation company and engineering consultancy interviews).
Geography and pressure to keep heavy vehicle movements off community roads incentivises finding reuse options close to sites of origin, but timing can prevent this (engineering consultancy interview).
In some cases, the SLfT can have less negative financial impact on a project than costs of storage, transport, or project delays, making reuse impractical (engineering consultancy interview).
Reuse of soil and stones may be deprioritised compared to the sustainability of manufactured materials like concrete (Berryman et al., 2023) especially where time and budget constraints apply (commercial remediation company and engineering consultancy interviews).
Reuse options for contaminated soils are limited. Untreated soil is costly to landfill, while treated soil is typically restricted to low-grade uses such as embankments (engineering consultancy interview).
Liability concerns discourage topsoil reuse as developers and landowners remain responsible for future environmental impacts (Hale et al., 2021).
Multiple compliance pathways such as exemptions, permits, and definition of waste protocols create confusion, increasing the risk of non-compliance, misclassification, and illegal disposal (commercial remediation company interview; Thompson, 2021).
Despite Berryman’s et al. (2023) guidance aimed at harmonising best practice, industry uptake remains inconsistent. The absence of a unified legislative framework results in varied approaches across agriculture, land development, engineering, and land management sectors (Thompson, 2021).

Preliminary feasibility assessment of diversion options

This section presents an indicative assessment of the viability of different waste diversion options for the three priority materials: mechanically-treated fines (19 12 12), mechanically-treated mineral fines (19 12 09), and soils and stones (17 05 04). The assessment considers how feasible the diversion options currently are. This includes information on current use, research and development activity, and the barriers mentioned above in section 6.

The feasibility score therefore indicates the extent that future interventions are needed to target barriers and enable diversion. The feasibility scoring is as follows:

1 = Not currently feasible, would require significant intervention to upscale.
2 = Feasible to some extent, some barriers would need to be addressed.
3 = Most feasible, already happening widely in Scotland.
n/a = not applicable, didn’t come up as a diversion option for the material in the research.

The methodology behind this assessment can be viewed in Appendix D.

Tables 4 and 5 below present the preliminary feasibility assessment of the end-of-pipe and upstream diversion options. For reference we also include a general impact rating of the technology based on the findings from desk-based research and stakeholder interviews. The impact rating reflects the overall environmental and circular economy benefits (e.g. quantities of materials diverted from landfill) that could be achieved if the option were implemented more widely, using a simple scale of ‘high’, ‘medium’ or ‘low’.

Key takeaways of the assessment are:

Mechanically-treated fines have a limited number of feasible end-of-pipe solutions at present. Landfill cover and gypsum recycling are technically possible, but most other downstream options score low on feasibility and offer only low to medium impact. As a result, it is likely better to prioritise upstream interventions – such as deconstruction, modular construction, and refurbishment – for their higher impact potential, even though they are not yet widely adopted.
Mechanically-treated mineral fines have more feasible end-of-pipe diversion options, including reuse in land restoration and aggregate recycling. These options are already in operation and could be scaled further considering the opportunity to provide ecological improvements so maximum value is retained.
Soils and stones show the greatest feasibility overall, particularly for recycled aggregates and reuse in landscaping. While some remediation technologies are not yet fully developed, most of the downstream options are already in use.
Gypsum and plasterboard recycling is moderately feasible and could play a larger role with better separation and recovery at source.
Upstream interventions such as modular construction, deconstruction, and refurbishment, score high on impact across all materials where relevant, but face barriers related to investment, data, and planning. Technological readiness is improving – especially with AI-driven solutions for sorting and design – and deployment is likely to increase in the next 5–10 years with the right incentives and digital infrastructure.

Table : Preliminary feasibility assessment of end-of-pipe diversion options

Diversion options	Potential impact (low, med, high)	Mechanically-treated fines	Mechanically-treated mineral fines	Soils and stones
Landfill/quarry cover, engineering and restoration	Low	3	3	3
Recycled aggregates	Medium	1	2	3
Land treatment and agricultural soil improvement	Medium	1	3	n/a
Gypsum fines recycling	Medium	2	n/a	n/a

Table 5: Preliminary feasibility assessment of upstream diversion options

Diversion options	Potential impact (low, med, high)	Mechanically-treated fines	Mechanically-treated mineral fines	Soils and stones
Remediation technologies (e.g. soil washing)	Medium	1	1	2
Landscaping and construction soil reuse	High	n/a	n/a	2
Modular construction and material reuse	High	1	1	n/a
Deconstruction and material sorting	High	1	1	n/a
Refurbish or retrofit before demolition	High	1	1	n/a

Key (see the methodology above for more information)

Score	Colour
1: Not currently feasible
2: Feasible to some extent
3: Most feasible
n/a: Not a diversion option

Policy assessment

This section provides an overview of existing policies influencing the management and diversion of the three priority materials. It also identifies policy gaps and presents potential interventions discussed in previous sections to enhance waste diversion, aligning with Scotland’s environmental objectives.

Overview of existing policies

Several key policies and fiscal mechanisms shape the management and disposal of the priority materials in Scotland. Some policies are devolved to the Scottish Government, while others are reserved, under UK Government control. These policies shape the incentives and barriers encountered by waste producers and processors in diverting materials from landfill.

Fiscal measures

Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT), the focus of this study, is devolved legislation introduced in 2015 to reduce the environmental impacts of waste, encouraging waste reduction and adherence to the waste hierarchy in Scotland. While standard-rate SLfT has risen significantly to £126.15 per tonne in 2025-26, the lower rate (£4.05 per tonne in 2025-26) remains considerably lower, as is broadly the case in the rest of the UK. As discussed, this lower rate is applied to seven groups of qualifying materials (Section 5.3), typically inert or less polluting wastes such as some construction and demolition waste. The lower-rate aims to provide an economic incentive for their diversion from landfill while avoid imposing undue costs on sectors where alternative treatment options may be limited.

The Aggregates Levy (AGL) is a UK-wide tax applied to commercially exploited (virgin) crushed rock, sand, and gravel to encourage the use of recycled alternatives. A Scottish Aggregates Tax (SAT) is expected to replace the UK AGL from April 2026, offering an opportunity to explore ways to further incentivise the use of secondary aggregates (Scottish Government, 2024b).

The Climate Change Levy (CCL) and Carbon Price Floor (CPF) are UK-wide fiscal measures designed to reduce carbon emissions by taxing energy use and setting a minimum price for carbon from electricity generation (HM Revenue and Customs, 2024). While these policies primarily lead to emissions reductions (Döbbeling-Hildebrandt et al. 2024, p.2) they also indirectly affect waste management across the UK by incentivising energy efficiency and low-carbon industrial processes.

Other regulatory measures

The Waste (Scotland) Regulations 2012, which are devolved secondary legislation, require waste producers to prioritise prevention, reuse, and recycling over landfill disposal (Scottish Government, 2012b). Businesses must segregate recyclable materials to improve recycling rates (Zero Waste Scotland, 2023). While these regulations reinforce waste hierarchy principles, they do not specifically address lower-rate waste streams.

The upcoming ban on biodegradable municipal waste (BMW) to landfill, effective 31 December 2025, is a devolved Scottish Government policy aimed at reducing environmental impacts from organic waste. While this ban will primarily impact standard-rate waste (Scottish Government, 2022), it could have indirect consequences for certain lower-rate materials. Minerals, and soils and stones, traditionally used for landfill engineering purposes, may see temporarily higher demand for use in landfill closures, but a long-term decline in demand. Alternative diversion pathways would be needed for these to align with Scotland’s circular economy objectives. In addition, gypsum, which currently can only be landfilled at sites without bio-waste, is likely to become easier to landfill. There may also be an increase bio-based mechanically-treated fines from municipal waste streams. Increased enforcement of fines’ classification and incentives for recycling may therefore be required. However, the ban will not signal the complete end of bio-waste to landfill, as it includes certain exemptions.

Digital Waste Transfer Notes (WTNs), a UK-wide initiative, aims to improve traceability and enforcement by transitioning to an electronic system for recording waste movements (DEFRA, 2023). This system aims to reduce the misclassification of waste, including lower-rate materials like mechanically-treated fines, by providing greater transparency in the movement of waste. It is expected to “shine a light on transactions and actors” currently missing from the system, while enhancing compliance with landfill tax regulations (CIWM, 2023). The April 2025 roll-out has recently been postponed to April 2026.

These are the key fiscal and regulatory policies interacting with lower-rate materials. However, gaps remain in their effectiveness for supporting diversion options for the three categories of waste which make up the bulk of lower-rated waste in Scotland notably mechanically-treated fines, soils and stones, and mineral waste. Addressing these gaps could involve targeted interventions, as discussed in the following sections and Appendix A.

Policy gaps and potential interventions

Despite existing regulatory and fiscal policies, several policy gaps hinder the effective diversion of lower-rate materials from landfill, such as mechanically-treated fines, and soils and stones from construction. These gaps are categorised according to their relation to either end-of-pipe waste management or upstream prevention in the material life-cycle.

This section outlines potential interventions to address such gaps. These are not policy recommendations but options to consider. Further research, analysis and consultation would be required before deciding whether to take any, or all, forward.

End-of-pipe diversion

Compliance risks and landfill misclassification

A key enforcement challenge is misclassification of waste at landfill sites. The widening gap between standard- and lower-rate SLfT (now standing at above £100 per tonne in 2025-26) may have inadvertently created financial incentives for waste producers to classify waste as lower-rate whenever possible. Along with the complex classification criteria (see section 5.3), this may have led to both deliberate and unintentional misclassification, particularly for mechanically-treated fines.

Rather than being residual outputs of material recovery, large quantities of fines are purposefully produced to qualify for the lower rate (Section 6.1.1). This distorts waste tracking data and results in potentially recoverable material being landfilled.

Landfill operators hold tax liability for misclassification, even though they do not generate or pre-process the waste. This creates financial risks for operators, leading some to refuse lower-rate fines altogether.

Ambiguity in classification raises costs for both regulators and waste operators. Waste producers may unintentionally misclassify waste due to lack of clear, standardised guidance, leading to incorrect application of the lower tax rate (see Section 7.2.1.1). Although better guidance could reduce some misclassification, it is unlikely to fully resolve the issue. This is because the underlying rules that determine whether fines are subject to the lower or standard rate are themselves complex and difficult to apply consistently, particularly when mapped against EWC waste code classifications (see Section 5.3). Clearer guidance may help reduce ambiguity, though it may also be worth exploring whether simplification of the tax qualification rules could support more consistent classification.

A recent SEPA report on the BMW-to-landfill ban notes that sorting residues from processing municipal waste (including mechanically-treated fines) may be generated in greater volumes in order to bypass the ban (SEPA, 2024a). This risks undermining the intent of the bio-waste ban policy through reclassification rather than genuine diversion. This risk is supported by our findings about the production of mechanically-treated fines to qualify for the lower rate (Section 6.1.1).

Potential fiscal interventions:

Explore the feasibility of a specific tax rate for mechanically-treated fines which is much closer to the standard rate, or reclassification under the standard rate. This could discourage excessive fines production while retaining the lower rate for less problematic inert materials. A careful balance would need to be struck to avoid unintended consequences, particularly for businesses reliant on landfill for inert waste management. Supportive measures, addressing upstream value chains, would likely be needed.

Potential non-fiscal interventions

Technical: Review LOI testing requirements to ensure they do not deter investment in fines processing, while maintaining environmental safeguards (C&D waste management processor interview; waste industry association interview; C&D skip operator interview).
Enforcement: Explore the potential for enhanced regulatory oversight through the upcoming digital waste transfer notes (WTNs) system to track and verify waste classification at source rather than at landfill. Through this, tax liability for misclassified mechanical fines could be shifted to the company which produced the fines, even if this is discovered after it has been accepted at landfill, along with penalties for misclassification.
Other: Improve guidance on EWC code classification by providing clearer criteria to support consistent decisions on whether waste qualifies for the lower rate. This could include practical examples of lower-rate materials, decision trees, and alignment with the upcoming digital waste transfer note system. In the longer term, there may also be value in exploring whether simplifying the underlying rules on lower-rate material classification could further reduce classification ambiguity.

Separation and recovery of mechanically-treated fines

Inadequate pre-sorting of C&D waste leads to contamination and fines production. Once contaminated, fines are difficult to reprocess. Industry practices in Scotland and globally do not sufficiently prioritise separation at the source, meaning valuable materials are lost to landfill.

Potential fiscal interventions:

Continue strengthening incentives to increase the demand for recycled fines. This is already starting with the planned introduction of the Scottish Aggregates Tax in April 2026 which will initially align with the UK Aggregates Levy. Over time, there may be scope for policy divergence in Scotland. Additional financial incentives – such as tax breaks or recycled content requirements – could drive up industry circularity, such as for reused material content, recycled material content and reusable materials (Green Alliance, 2023). However, interventions would have to avoid unintended consequences related to availability of recycled fines. This could be a particular issue in rural areas, which are further from recycling infrastructure (commercial remediation company interview).

Potential non-fiscal interventions:

Technological: More support for technologies and infrastructure to reprocess fines and reduce contamination could help address issues with fines in washing facilities. Programmes like the Knowledge Transfer Partnership could play a role. Existing examples include phytoremediation, which uses plants and microorganisms to degrade pollutants and reduce heavy metals (Yadav et al., 2022).
Technological: Technologies exist to make the shape of fines coarser and more suitable for construction purposes, though the outputs are currently more costly than natural aggregates (C&D skip operator interview). Further reuse routes could be explored, for example how to promote fine aggregates being added to paints for flooring to increase traction.
Regulatory: Encourage early-stage waste management planning by integrating material audits into construction permitting. This includes site investigations, sampling and testing to support effective use of recycled aggregates.
Other: Improve industry understanding of recycled fines through guidance and awareness campaigns, including how and when they can be reused (C&D skip operator interview).

Cross-border waste movement risks

SLfT operates within a broader UK framework, presenting cross-border waste movement compliance challenges. For instance, if Scotland increased its lower-rate SLfT while England maintained the current lower rate, waste exports may increase, undermining the tax’s effectiveness as well as Scottish tax revenues. Similarly, restricting mechanical fines’ eligibility for the lower rate in Scotland could lead to this waste stream being diverted to England instead of being recovered.

These risks are particularly relevant in light of recent and proposed changes across the UK. As mentioned, the Welsh Government increased its lower rate of Landfill Disposals Tax in 2024, and the UK Government is currently consulting on significant reforms to Landfill Tax in England and Northern Ireland, with the consultation due to conclude in July 2025 (HM Treasury and HMRC, 2025).

Introducing financial or enforcement-based interventions is challenging in a cross-border context. The Scottish Government has limited or no authority over waste processed or disposed of in other UK jurisdictions.

Potential fiscal interventions:

Considering penalties for cross-border misclassification, similar to Wales’ Unauthorised Disposals Tax (150% of the standard rate) and the proposal in the UK government’s consultation (200% of the standard rate) which creates an additional financial deterrent for people seeking to dispose of waste illegally.

Potential non-fiscal interventions:

Regulatory/enforcement: Enhancing regulatory and enforcement coordination between Scotland, England, and Wales to ensure greater policy consistency and prevent waste tourism.

Upstream diversion

Reducing reliance on landfill also requires preventing lower-rate materials from being generated as waste. However, this is constrained by limited incentives for circular practices, inconsistent reuse standards, weak producer responsibility measures and insufficient integration of circularity in planning and procurement.

Lack of incentives for designing in circularity

Soils, stones, and minerals removed from C&D sites are often generated, and classified as waste, without efforts to improve their quality or assess their reuse potential. This results in unnecessary landfill disposal, despite available prevention and recovery pathways. Lack of guidance on soil and stone classification, combined with inconsistent reuse standards, means that secondary materials markets remain underdeveloped.

Mechanically-treated fines are often the result of poor material selection at the design and procurement stages. If more construction materials and products were designed for disassembly, reuse, or easier sorting, rather than demolition, the production of fines could be significantly reduced. Currently, there is no strong economic driver for waste producers to prioritise clean, separable materials over mixed waste streams that result in fines.

Current planning regulations and public procurement rules do not sufficiently integrate circular economy principles. Without upfront material assessments, valuable materials are classified as waste and disposed of unnecessarily.

The UK and the devolved nations are moving toward more comprehensive extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes for other materials. If an effective system is adopted for construction, this could encourage producers to adopt circular practices and reduce waste generation at the design stage. There have also been sub-national developments in London, where large planning applications for approval by the mayor now require whole lifecycle carbon assessments, carbon reduction plans, and circular economy statements. Before a redevelopment or demolition plan can be approved, an audit must be carried out to determine the reuse potential of materials in the existing building (Mayor of London, 2022).

Circular economy policies such as these are needed to transition the construction sector as a whole, changing value chains so that much less of the priority materials in this study are generated. The lower rate of SLfT could be iteratively increased in tandem with these interventions, as a supporting measure; if it were to be raised too rapidly without supporting upstream interventions, negative impacts on the construction sector and on illegal disposal would likely occur.

Potential fiscal interventions:

Consider raising the overall lower rate of SLfT to provide a greater incentive for circular practices on construction sites. Even a relatively modest increase could help to justify the costs of storing and transporting materials such as soils and stones for reuse (engineering consultancy interview). Wales’ new lower rate (£6.30 per tonne) could serve as a benchmark. A rate of £6 per tonne was deemed viable by industry interviewees (commercial landfill operator and C&D waste management processor).
Consider monitoring the development and impacts of the upcoming Scottish Aggregates Tax (SAT), which will replace the UK Aggregates Levy from April 2026. While the SAT will be limited to the commercial exploitation of aggregates as defined in the 2024 Act (Scottish Government, 2024b), its introduction provides a useful opportunity to review whether taxation influences the quantities of lower-rate aggregates sent to landfill. Insights from this review could help inform future considerations around the treatment of other virgin materials used in construction, within the context of devolved powers and existing legislative frameworks.
Consider financial incentives for reuse in construction, such as tax relief for projects incorporating secondary materials (construction company interview).
Ensure SLfT exemptions support the diversion of lower-rate materials from landfill. A review of existing and upcoming exemptions, for instance with the bio-waste to landfill ban, may help assess their effectiveness in facilitating prevention, reuse and recovery while maintaining environmental protections.
Consider engaging with HM Revenue and Customs over VAT reform, such as extending zero-rate VAT to refurbishment and retrofit to reduce incentives for demolition and new build construction.

Non-fiscal interventions

Policy: Consider the expansion of EPR to cover construction materials, shifting financial responsibility for waste management onto producers to encourage modular design and reuse.
Policy: Consider mandatory, rather than voluntary, circularity requirements targeting construction project clients (construction company interview). Investigate opportunities to strengthen public procurement rules to prioritise secondary materials, reuse, spoil management and design for deconstruction. These requirements could support more systematic waste prevention at the planning stage and drive investment in circular practices (SEDA, 2024; O’Leary, Osmani and Goodier, 2024).
Policy: Consider reforms to embed circularity in planning policy, such as requirements for pre-demolition assessments, material recovery assessments before deconstruction and resource management plans to include deconstruction design (Construction company interview; Green Alliance, 2023).
Policy: Explore adoption of carbon reporting tools that account for lifecycle emissions, including embodied carbon and Scope 3 (SEDA, 2024). Distinct reuse and recycling reporting for high-impact materials like concrete may also help reduce downcycling (Green Alliance, 2023).
Technological: Consider supporting the development of product passports or material databases for construction materials to improve transparency and enable reuse (construction company interview).
Technological: Consider the future use of AI and matching platforms to optimise design and reuse coordination (Huang et al., 2022; Choi et al., 2018; construction company interview).
Operational: Consider investigating early-stage site audits, sampling and testing to support on-site recovery and reuse of recycled aggregates (C&D skip operator and engineering consultancy interviews).
Operational: Consider the potential for construction material hubs to store and redistribute soils and other surplus materials. However, barriers remain around ownership, quality control, certification and fraud risk (commercial remediation company and construction company interviews).
Other: Consider aligning government strategies on housing and urban development with circular economy targets to create long-term demand for reused materials (Green Alliance, 2023).
Other: Consider investing in training and awareness to support greater uptake of recycled aggregates and reused soils. Cultural shifts may be needed to encourage viewing soil and stones as valuable resources, rather than ‘dirt’ (Thompson, 2021; Berryman et al., 2023).

Addressing both end-of-pipe and upstream barriers will be essential for improving SLfT effectiveness and enhancing material recovery. As with other areas of circular economy policy, coordinated packages of measures working across material value chains, targeting incentives at multiple stakeholders, are likely to be needed. By considering these policy measures, Scotland could identify strategies to reduce landfill reliance, improve material efficiency, and accelerate its transition to a circular economy.

Conclusions

This section summarises the key findings of the research and assesses whether the lower-rate SLfT remains effective in supporting Scotland’s environmental and waste management objectives. It also considers the broader policy implications, including potential enforcement challenges, unintended consequences, and cross-border impacts.

Summary of key findings

The lower rate of SLfT was introduced to enable the cost-effective disposal of low-risk, inert waste while ensuring compliance with Scotland’s broader environmental policies. Overall landfill trends show a mild downward trend in landfilled lower-rate materials at least until early 2020 (Figure 1), suggesting the tax may have initially influenced disposal patterns. Tonnages of lower rate material to landfill have since fluctuated without a clear trend (Figure 1). This research identifies several factors that may influence the continued effectiveness of the lower rate:

Lower-rate landfill disposal is dominated by three specific waste streams—mechanically-treated fines, soils and stones, and mechanically-treated mineral fines—which together accounted for 77% of all lower-rate waste landfilled in 2023-24.
Mechanically-treated fines are landfilled in the greatest quantities out of all lower-rate materials, and have seen the greatest increase in quantities between 2021-2024 (with a slight dip in 2022-23). This is despite originally being intended as residual outputs from material recovery processes. This trend raises concerns over misclassification and evidence from our interviews of fines being produced on purpose.
Environmental impact analysis highlights that mechanically-treated fines pose significant risks, contributing disproportionately to air pollution, resource depletion, and biodiversity loss compared to other lower-rate materials.
Current SLfT structures, fiscal incentives, and policy measures are not effectively supporting higher-value diversion options for lower-rate materials. The relatively affordable lower tax rate continues to make landfill the most economically attractive option for many waste producers of the priority materials, as it does in some other parts of the UK.
The upcoming ban on BMW (effective December 2025) will change landfill dynamics, reducing long-term demand for materials traditionally used in landfill engineering, and may lead to more lower-rate materials being sent to landfill.
Misclassification of waste remains a major issue, exacerbated by complex EWC code classifications that do not always align with SLfT qualifying material criteria. The lack of easy-to-use guidance and strong oversight contributes to both deliberate and unintentional misclassification.

These findings suggest that while the lower-rate SLfT has played a role in reducing landfill disposal overall, there may be opportunities to better align it with Scotland’s evolving circular economy and net zero ambitions.

Does the lower rate of Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT) still support Scotland’s environmental objectives?

The lower-rate SLfT was designed to provide a cost-effective landfill option for inert, low-risk materials while supporting Scotland’s environmental policies, including waste reduction, emissions reduction, and adherence to the waste hierarchy. Since it was introduced, Scotland has introduced ambitious net zero targets and has increased its policy focus on achieving a circular economy. Compared to when the UK-wide Landfill Tax was first introduced in 1996, there is now more emphasis on reducing environmental impacts associated with upstream material use, rather than solely reducing emissions and hazards once materials are in landfill.

This research finds that the lower rate is no longer fully aligned with Scotland’s environmental objectives. Evidence suggests that progress in diverting lower-rate materials may have stalled, with data indicating a levelling-off of lower-rate landfill tonnages since 2020–21 (Figure 1). In addition, there is insufficient incentive to divert materials upstream, including via the planning and design stages of the construction projects which generate much of these materials.

Misalignment with policy goals

While the SLfT was intended to discourage landfill disposal and promote alternative waste management options, the lower rate has, in some cases, created unintended incentives:

Mechanically-treated fines have become a dominant lower-rate waste stream despite their potential for reduction and recovery, indicating that the tax structure may not sufficiently encourage more circular treatment of the mixed construction materials that make up this waste stream.
The low cost of landfill disposal creates limited incentives for repurposing soils and stones, which could otherwise be reused in construction and landscaping.
The lower rate of tax, at £4.05 per tonne (2025-26) appears to have had a limited impact in shifting waste up the hierarchy, with landfill remaining the most economically viable option for many waste producers.

Environmental and economic consequences

Mechanically-treated fines, which now make up a significant portion of lower-rate landfill disposal, have disproportionately high environmental impacts (on a whole life-cycle basis) compared to other lower-rate materials, including contributions to air pollution, resource depletion, and biodiversity loss.

The financial attractiveness of landfill compared to investment in secondary material recovery remains a major barrier. The cost of processing and diverting lower-rate materials often exceeds landfill costs, discouraging investment in alternative waste management solutions.

Compliance and enforcement challenges

The widening tax differential between standard- and lower-rate waste contributes to increased misclassification, particularly for mechanically-treated fines, where interviewees pointed to the ‘production’ of fines in order to qualify for the lower rate.

Landfill operators, who bear the primary tax liability for misclassified waste, face increased financial and compliance risks, leading some to refuse lower-rate fines due to the high burden of tax assessments and retrospective penalties.

Complexities in aligning SLfT qualifying criteria with EWC codes contribute to misclassification, due to a lack of clear guidance for waste producers and operators.

Conclusion and policy implications

The lower-rate SLfT remains partially effective but is increasingly misaligned with Scotland’s circular economy and wider environmental objectives. While it has supported landfill diversion in some cases, the increasing quantity of mechanically-treated fines being landfilled at lower rate undermines resource efficiency and waste hierarchy goals. Without adjustments, in conjunction with other supporting policies, there is a risk that the tax may continue to favour landfill disposal over resource recovery, limiting Scotland’s progress toward a low-carbon, circular economy.

To ensure Scotland meets its waste reduction, emissions reduction, and circular economy goals, reforms to the lower-rate SLfT are necessary. Key areas for further exploration could include:

Raising the lower SLfT rate by a greater margin than in previous years (as Wales is doing and proposed in the UK’s 2025 consultation), to incentivise application of the waste hierarchy.
Assigning a significantly higher SLfT rate to mechanically-treated fines specifically, to address misclassification and recognise its relatively high environmental impacts.
Strengthening enforcement and guidance on material classification to reduce compliance risks.
Build on existing cross-border regulatory and enforcement cooperation to address ongoing challenges such as waste tourism and the evolution of the landfill tax, recognising the complexities of working across different regimes.

By considering these targeted interventions, Scotland can help reduce reliance on landfill, improve material efficiency, and ensure that landfill tax policy aligns with long-term sustainability goals.

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Zhao, Z. et al (2020) ‘Use of recycled concrete aggregates from precast block for the production of new building blocks: An industrial scale study’, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 157(104786). Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921344920301075 (Accessed: 12 March 2025)

Zhao, X. (2021) ‘Stakeholder-associated factors influencing construction and demolition waste management: A systematic review’, Buildings, 11(4), pp. 1-22. Available at: https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11040149 (Accessed: 12 March 2025)

Appendices

Alignment of the Scottish Landfill Tax (SLfT) with broader policy frameworks

This appendix provides further context on how the SLfT aligns with key environmental policy frameworks, specifically the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024 and Scotland’s wider decarbonisation strategy. It highlights the role of SLfT in supporting waste hierarchy principles, promoting resource efficiency, and contributing to net-zero targets through practical examples – while also noting current limitations.

Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024

Example 1: Waste hierarchy alignment

The Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024 places strong emphasis on the waste hierarchy, which prioritises prevention, reuse, recycling, and recovery before landfill. SLfT reinforces this principle by applying a financial disincentive to landfill disposal. The lower rate of SLfT, applied to certain inert materials such as glass, ceramics and soil, encourages their diversion from landfill toward reuse or recycling. This supports the Act’s objectives by reducing dependence on landfill and promoting material circulation within the economy. However, as outlined in Section 3.1 the lower rate appears to be an insufficient incentive to drive significant upstream changes, such as waste prevention or more ambitious reuse practices.

Example 2: Waste prevention and resource efficiency

The Act also aims to improve resource efficiency across sectors. By differentiating tax rates based on environmental impact, SLfT promotes the recovery of materials with low impacts and discourages disposal of more polluting waste. This financial incentive supports businesses in adopting sustainable waste practices. That said, the influence of SLfT on broader resource efficiency is limited, as its primary focus is end-of-pipe disposal rather than incentivising upstream design, reduction, or material substitution choices

Scotland’s decarbonisation strategy

Example 3: Reducing emissions from waste management

Scotland’s decarbonisation strategy includes a target of net-zero emissions by 2045. Landfilled waste—particularly biodegradable materials—generates GHGs such as methane. SLfT supports emissions reduction by applying a higher tax rate to waste streams which emit more GHGs in landfill, encouraging their diversion. The upcoming ban on landfilling biodegradable municipal waste in 2025 builds on this, aligning landfill policy with Scotland’s climate commitments. However, SLfT’s impact remains focused on reducing emissions from landfilled waste, and does not yet provide strong incentives to reduce embodied carbon or promote lower-carbon materials earlier in the lifecycle.

Example 4: Circular economy and carbon footprint reduction

The strategy also promotes circular economy practices as a means of reducing carbon emissions. SLfT complements this by encouraging alternatives to landfill, such as repurposing lower-rate materials like soil and stones for construction. This can reduce the need to extract virgin materials, contributing to lower carbon footprints. Nonetheless, SLfT’s role in driving circular construction practices remains limited, as it does not directly incentivise material reuse, design for deconstruction, or low-carbon construction methods upstream.

Integration of policy goals

Example 5: Aligning SLfT with policy reviews and landfill ban

The Scottish Government has committed to reviewing waste management options by 2027, alongside the upcoming ban on landfilling biodegradable municipal waste. These developments present an opportunity to better integrate SLfT with other fiscal and regulatory tools. While SLfT plays a role in discouraging landfill and supporting environmental objectives, its effectiveness is partly constrained by limited coordination with wider policies on construction, procurement, and materials management. Stronger understanding of policy cross overs could enhance the overall impact of SLfT.

Methodology for quantitative data gathering and analysis

Data requests

Both Revenue Scotland (as regulators of the SLfT) and SEPA (as the national environmental authority) hold and publish statistical data on waste to landfill in Scotland. However, the public-facing outputs are summarised and categorised from more disaggregated data. This is primarily to protect confidentiality within the tax returns (RS) and to make the outputs more accessible to the public (SEPA). As such, we made data requests to both organisations.

RS provided annual financial year (FY) data for five full years against 13 EWC codes / group codes as highlighted in Section 4.1. Multiple codes were grouped together in six of the 13 rows of data where RS needed to aggregate data to protect confidentiality. This is where only one company is responsible for an entire tax return for a single code and could therefore be directly identifiable.

SEPA provided 3 full years of data broken down by quarter, also at EWC code level. This annual data is publicly available but the latest year was released early to us by SEPA for the purposes of this report. The data is fully disaggregated and includes operator name & address, operator description and waste origin. There are 2,514 individual records in the data file.

We also made a request to Zero Waste Scotland for access to their Scottish Waste Environmental Footprint Tool (SWEFT). The tool provides lifecycle-based factors for certain waste categories across different treatment pathways (e.g. landfill, recycling, incineration…) for six different environmental criteria:

Climate / greenhouse gases, as kg CO₂ eq. The contribution of emissions of greenhouse gases to climate change, measured as Global Warming Potential (GWP100)
Biodiversity, as species loss. An aggregated measure of species at risk, based on the ReCiPe endpoint indicator for Ecosystem quality.
Air pollution, as kg PM_2.5 eq., Air pollution’s damage to human health, measured as the equivalent impact of PM_2.5.
Mineral resource scarcity, as kg Cu eq. Mineral resource scarcity is a measure of the difficulty to mine a resource in the future given expected future production (measured in kg of copper equivalent).
Water consumption, as m³. Water consumption consists of the volume of water withdrawn and used.
Land use, as m² annual crop eq. The species lost due to loss of habitat and soil disturbance, expressed as the equivalent species loss per sqm typical crop production.

Given the timeframe of this project and the desire to consider the role of SLfT against Scotland’s wider environmental objectives – the use of such a tool was considered appropriate to provide quick assessment across a broad coverage of potential environmental impacts.

Data cleansing

We then cleansed the data:

Annual totals were created in the SEPA data by FY, assuming that a financial year is the sum of Q2, Q3, Q4 and the following Q1.
SEPA data was filtered to remove any EWC codes that do not appear in the RS data for lower rate materials.
Tonnages for EWC codes in the SEPA dataset were aggregated where relevant in order to match the EWC code grouping provided by RS.
A SWEFT category was assigned to each material / material group in the RS/SEPA data. This was based on expert judgement of the project team, with the allocations presented in Table A 1 below. It is noted that SWEFT has to date only been compiled for household waste streams. Therefore, the nature of materials from a commercial / industrial source (more likely to qualify as lower rate materials) may differ in nature from household wastes of a similar material description. Given the timeline of this project and the aim to use SWEFT as an indicator of environmental impacts, this was deemed to be an acceptable weakness in the data review method.

We reviewed landfill tonnage data for potential discrepencies by comparing the national total to landfill (SEPA) which is assumed to represent the sum of both lower- and standard- rate materials against the RS data for the same period. For two of the grouped codes, the RS data for lower rate materials was found to be greater than the total to landfill represented by the SEPA data. In one case, this was resolved through communication with the data providers. For the remaining group, it was stated that “there can be slight differences in counting between the organisations due to water discounts applied, permanent removals, and movement from/to non-disposal areas”. For the most part, this verification exercise found good alignment between the two datasets. This is supported by the finding that the two datasets match in totals for some of the EWC codes that are only landfilled at lower rate. As such, the group with a remaining discrepency was identified to the project steering group for their information, without there being a significant impact on research outcomes.

Data analysis and prioritisation scores

We analysed the data with the view of identifying materials/ material groups to prioritise for further research.

For each of the 13 material groups in the RS dataset, we calculated the percentage of lower rate material as a portion of the total material landfilled (SEPA totals) for that group. This allowed for the groups with the highest quantities landfilled at lower rate to be identified and prioritised for further research, whilst providing additional context on the relationship between lower and standard rate wastes within the material definitions.
We reviewed a number of different reference material including the SEPA operator descriptions for each landfill record to give specificity to the materials included under each of the defined material groups. This also enabled us to screen out certain material groups as “niche materials” as described in Section 4.1.
Environmnetal impacts were estimated for each of the 13 material groups across the six environmental indicators included in SWEFT. This was completed by multiplying the 2023/24 tonnage for each material group with the corresponding SWEFT factor.
Based on step III, we ranked material groups in terms of their weighted impact against each environmental indicator. The output of this is provided in Table A 1 below.
An alternative view of the results was defined by calculating the relative impact of each material group across each indicator proportionally from zero to one. This helps to show the significance of impact for each material group which is not automatically understood from the appraoch in step IV. For example, there may be a significant difference in the scale of environmental impact between the first and second ranked material group for a given indicator. The ouput of this analysis is the spider diagram presented in section 4.4.
We assigned an overall priority score to each of the 13 material groups by considering both the overall tonnage disposed at lower rate; and the indicative environmental impacts. The ouput of this priority scoring is provided in Table A 1 below.

This method for prioritising materials was agreed with the project steering group as a basis for narrowing down the materials / material groups for further research and policy review.

Table A : Descriptor terms, SWEFT category, tonnage and weighted environmental impact rankings (SWEFT output)

EWC code/ group of codes	Descriptor	SWEFT category	Tonnage	GHG	Biodiversity	Air pollution	Mineral resource scarcity	Waster consumption	Land use	Overall priority rank
19 12 12	Mechanically-treated fines	Combustion wastes	1	2	NA	1	1	1	1	1
17 05 04	Soil and stones	Soils	2	4	2	3	3	2	2	2
19 12 09	Mechanical treated-mineral fines	Mineral waste from construction and demolition	3	3	NA	2	2	3	3	2
19 03 05, 19 05 99, 19 12 05, 19 13 06, 20 01 02, 20 01 99, 20 03 01, 20 03 03, 20 03 99^[4]	Mixed household wastes / Niche materials	Mineral waste from construction and demolition	4	5	NA	4	5	5	5	4
19 01 12	Bottom ash and slag	Combustion wastes	5	6	NA	5	6	6	6	5
19 01 02, 19 01 11, 19 01 14, 19 01 16, 19 02 09, 19 02 99	Niche materials	Mixed and undifferentiated materials (aggregated)	6	1	1	6	4	4	4	3
17 01 07	Mixed minerals (concrete, bricks, tiles, ceramics)	Mineral waste from construction and demolition	7	7	NA	7	7	7	7	No priority
01 04 08, 01 04 09, 01 04 10, 01 05 07, 02 01 03	Niche materials	Mineral waste from construction and demolition	8	8	NA	8	8	8	8	No priority
17 01 02, 17 01 03, 17 02 02, 17 05 06, 17 06 04, 17 09 04	Niche materials*	Mineral waste from construction and demolition	9	9	NA	9	9	9	9	No priority
06 01 99, 07 01 12, 07 07 12, 10 01 01, 10 01 17, 10 02 01, 10 03 05, 10 11 03	Niche materials*	Combustion wastes	10	10	NA	10	10	10	10	No priority
20 02 02	Soil and stones (garden, park, recreation)	Soils	11	11	3	11	11	11	11	5
12 01 07, 12 01 17, 15 01 07, 16 01 20, 16 03 04, 16 11 02	Niche materials*	Mineral waste from construction and demolition	12	12	NA	12	12	12	12	No priority
17 01 01	Concrete	Mineral waste from construction and demolition	13	13	NA	13	13	13	13	No priority

NA: SWEFT factor = zero for biodiversity loss associated with landfill for those waste categories.

Methodology for qualitative data gathering and analysis

The qualitative research consisted of a literature review and interviews to support an assessment of diversion and policy options.

Desk-based research

The desk-based research was initiated in two stages. The first stage was a preliminary review of diversion options for four top ranking materials, based on the quantitative data collection and analysis of SEPA and RS data (Appendix B). These were: mechanically treated fines, mechanically treated mineral fines, soils and stones, bottom ash, and slags. The second stage was a more detailed review following the quantitative assessment of environmental impacts and a narrowing of focus on three priority materials (Appendix B). After prioritisation was finalised, further research was not conducted for bottom ash and slags.

The priority materials were researched using academic search engines, such as Google Scholar, Scopus and Web of Science. Organisations concerned with inert waste were checked for relevant sources, such as WRAP, Zero Waste Scotland and Green Alliance. Sources were prioritised for review if they were based in Scotland or the UK, summarised a wide range of sources through a literature review, or were indicated to be widely referenced.

Often, sources were not published based on EWC codes. Instead, they refer to common industry names for the materials, for instance, ‘trommel fines’ or ‘mechanical fines’ rather than ‘EWC 19 12 12’. In addition, as research refers to the recycling and recovery of mechanical fines generally, we combined searches on diversion options for mechanically-treated fines and mechanically treated mineral fines.

A combination of search terms were used, including terms related to:

Research questions, e.g. downstream, upstream, diversion, circular, barriers, enablers, limitations, risk, disposal and landfill.
Priority materials, e.g. trommel fines, mechanical fines, minerals, bricks, tiles, ceramics, fines, skip fines, soils, stones and gypsum.
Circularity or waste hierarchy stages, e.g. reuse, recovery, recycling, retrofit and refurbishment.
Industries, e.g. construction, demolition, quarrying, excavation, engineering and recycling.
Diversion options, e.g. aggregate, treatment, land, deconstruction, engineering, landscaping and cover materials.
Geography, e.g. Scotland, UK, Europe and rural.

Stakeholder engagement

Eight one-hour, semi-structured interviews were conducted online and in-person between January and March 2025. In addition, questions were answered via email by some of these stakeholders, and a 3 further stakeholders. The full list can be viewed below in Table A 2 .

Table A 2: Stakeholder engagement list

Stakeholder category	Stakeholder reference	Form of data collection	Date of interview	Position held
Regulator	Revenue Scotland-A	Interview	21 Jan 2025	SEPA Specialist
	SEPA	Interview	21 Jan 2025	Waste Policy Lead
	Revenue Scotland-B	Email	N/A	Head of Scottish Landfill Tax
Waste management, including industry associations	Commercial landfill operator	Interview and email	10 Feb 2025	Regional Operations Manager
	C&D waste management processor	Interview and email	17 Jan 2025	Managing Director
	C&D waste management processor	Interview and email	17 Jan 2025	Chair
	Waste industry association	Interview	22 Jan 2025	Policy Advisor
	Large public body	Email	N/A	National Sustainability Manager
Upstream sources	Commercial remediation company	Interview	03 Feb 2025	Regional Remediation Manager, Scotland
	Engineering consultancy	Interview	21 Feb 2025	Technical Director
	C&D skip operator	Interview	06 Feb 2025	Operations Director
	Construction company	Interview	25 March 2025	Head of Supply Chain Development

A set of standard interview/email questions were developed based on the overarching research questions asked in the project. Before each contact with a stakeholder, these standard questions were tailored to the stakeholder’s knowledge and background and developed into an interview proforma. The standard questions investigated the following key points:

verifying quantitative findings on priority materials and sources of lower-rate materials;
identifying existing or future end-of-pipe diversion options for each priority material;
identifying existing or future upstream diversion options for each priority material;
understanding the barriers hindering the advancement of each diversion option, including technical, operational, policy, financial or wider barriers;
understanding potential policy options to address barriers associated with accelerating the diversion options; and
understanding the unintended consequences of any policy options.

All meeting invites were issued by the Scottish Government via email and were accompanied by a participant information and consent form for interviewees to review and sign. This included full details of data use and protection, in line with UK Government guidance.^{^[5]}

Interview requests were sent out in two stages to support research aims. The first stage targeted regulators, waste management organisations, local governments and tax-implementing organisations. They were selected to provide insights on data availability and granularity, triangulate/verify the assessment prioritising certain materials, and identify further stakeholders to contact. The second stage targeted ‘the source’ of lower-rate materials sent to landfill. Namely, stakeholders from sectors using large amounts of priority materials. Their insights were used to understand the on-the-ground situation, and triangulate quantitative findings on priority materials and desk-based findings on diversion options.

Qualitative analysis

Findings from desk-based research and stakeholder engagement were added to a spreadsheet, using the template shown below in Table 6. This spreadsheet enabled assessment of the diversion options, barriers and enablers. In addition, it informed the analysis of policy options and unintended consequences of these options, and was used to conduct the feasibility assessment described below in Appendix D.

Table : Template of structural headings used to analyse qualitative data

Priority material	Description of diversion option	Limitations	Upstream or downstream	Current barriers	Potential enablers	Risks

Methodology for the preliminary feasibility assessment

This initial feasibility assessment evaluates the viability of different waste diversion options for mechanically-treated fines (19 12 12), mechanically-treated mineral fines (19 12 09), and soils and stones (17 05 04) by considering their existing use in Scotland, research and development efforts, and regulatory and financial barriers. The Table A 2 below details the logic behind our assessment given in Section 6.5.

Note that this assessment serves more as a summary of Section 6 and a high-level guide for policy-makers, than an in-depth feasibility assessment.

Table A : Feasibility assessment methodology

Diversion option	Lifecycle stage of diversion	Key barriers	Feasibility score (3 max)		Feasibility score justification
Mechanically-treated fines (19 12 12)
Landfill cover/quarry cover, engineering and restoration	End-of-pipe	Demand exists, minimal barriers	3		Common practice in Scotland, demand for landfill cover
Recycled aggregates	End-of-pipe	Low substitution rate, contamination risks, infrastructure investment lacking	1		Variability of fines makes reuse challenging and current incentives make virgin aggregate use easier.
Land treatment and agricultural soil improvement	End-of-pipe	Contamination concerns, nutrient content inconsistency	1		Regulatory restrictions in the UK – more limited land where mechanically-treated fines can be used
Gypsum fines recycling	End-of-pipe	Contamination risks, landfill tax incentives encourage disposal	2		Existing recovery infrastructure, but purity issues and low cost to landfill remain
Remediation	Upstream	Need bespoke technologies, barriers to investment in infrastructure	1		Some promising research, but not scaled commercially
Mechanically-treated mineral fines (19 12 09)
Landfill cover/quarry cover, engineering and restoration	End-of-pipe	Demand exists, minimal barriers	3	Common practice in Scotland, but might waste nutrient rich fines that could be used in agriculture, providing a higher value
Recycled aggregates	End-of-pipe	Lack of steady supply, market uptake issues	2	Exemptions exist, and some use is ongoing but low demand.
Land treatment and agricultural soil improvement	End-of-pipe	Requires permits, some contamination concerns	3	Permitted in agriculture with waste management licensing exemptions
Remediation	Upstream	Need bespoke technologies, barriers to investment in infrastructure	1	Some promising research, but not scaled commercially
Soils and stones (17 05 04)
Landfill cover/quarry cover, engineering and restoration	End-of-pipe	Long-term decline in landfill sites	3	Common practice in Scotland
Recycled aggregates	End-of-pipe	Cost competitiveness with virgin aggregates	3	Commercially used, but virgin materials remain cheaper
Remediation (e.g., soil washing)	Upstream	Limited adoption, investment barriers and high processing costs	2	Underutilised in Scotland as it is costly but growing
Landscaping and construction	Upstream	Coordination challenges between projects	2	Varies across projects
Fines upstream diversion (19 12 09 and 19 12 12)
Modular construction and material reuse	Upstream	Expensive upfront investment, scalability challenges	1	Expanding in modern construction but cost barriers remain Future advances in AI will help
Deconstruction and material sorting (including sorting plasterboard)	Upstream	Lack of incentives, infrastructure and industry skill/common practice limitations	1	Circular economy support exists, but still underdeveloped
Retrofit before demolition	Upstream	Predominantly policy/fiscal barriers	1	Wide understanding that retrofit often has a better carbon impact, but fiscal policy and cost are a barrier

How to cite this publication:

Ross, V., Owens, H., Evans, S., Claxton, R., Kaczmarski, J., Chalmers-Arnold, I. (2025) ‘Scottish Landfill Tax: lower rate review‘, ClimateXChange.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6063

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

High School Yards

Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

Some of the data provided by Revenue Scotland was grouped to ensure confidentiality is retained, for example where there is only one operator responsible for a specific code. These grouped codes have been verified by the project team as containing mostly niche materials, and therefore excluded from the shortlist. ↑
This group contains a code for mixed household wastes (20 03 01). An insignificant portion of this code is expected to be landfilled at lower rate. As such, it was assessed separately from the niche materials that make up the remainder of this group (which are more likely to be landfilled under the lower rate). ↑
Diversion options for gypsum have been reviewed, as the upcoming ban on landfilling biodegradable waste may unintentionally make it easier to landfill gypsum. Currently restricted from co-disposal with biowaste, gypsum may no longer face this barrier once all landfills exclude biodegradable waste. ↑
This group contains a code for mixed household wastes (20 03 01). An insignificant portion of this code is expected to be landfilled at lower rate. As such, it was assessed separately from the niche materials that make up the remainder of this group (which are more likely to be landfilled under the lower rate). ↑
UK Government: Getting informed consent for user research ↑

Research completed March 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6008

Executive summary

This project was commissioned to inform the Scottish Government on the potential for an interactive Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) in Scotland. It is proposed that interactivity could allow householders to better assess potential retrofit measures. This, in turn, may prompt households to undertake energy efficiency measures and switch to clean heat systems. This report will help inform whether it would be beneficial to incorporate data or functionality into the national EPC register to support potential EPC interactivity.

Key findings

Three levels of potential interactivity have been identified for the Scottish Government to consider implementing in relation to EPCs:

Simple interaction, where both (i) no new user data and (ii) no integration with a calculation engine are required. Users could choose between customised or simplified views of EPC data. Click-through links signposting to further information could also be included (e.g. about measures, funding, further advice services).
Medium interaction, where (i) no new user data is required, but (ii) integration with a calculation engine is required. Users could see updated calculations based on already-completed as well as potential retrofit measures. Fuel costs could be updated in line with recent trends.
Detailed interaction, where customised user behaviour and occupancy inputs could update outputs via integration with an enhanced calculation engine (medium interaction functions also included). Users could personalise a range of inputs for which default values are normally applied in an EPC calculation.

The EPC outputs likely to be most useful to households are costs: household energy running costs, running cost savings, and the capital cost of various retrofit measures. The extent to which these outputs may be customised varies, as does the complexity of implementation. For example, household energy running costs could be updated by simply considering the latest fuel prices. Or, it could be tailored by updating one or more of the following variables: fuel prices, occupancy, heating temperature set point, heating patterns, or the number of baths or showers taken per day.

However, customising more variables may not necessarily make the outputs more representative, since the reliability of obtaining some of those inputs may be quite low. At any level of customisation, it will be necessary to inform tool users that outputs are ultimately estimates. Actual energy use and costs will inevitably be influenced by annual climate severity, changing fuel prices, and changes in household circumstances.

There are a number of existing tools that already deliver energy advice to households. These have varying levels of interactivity and customisation. In response to user testing and feedback, many offer relatively limited customisation. Circumstantially, this supports the reasoning that a modest spectrum of customisation may be the limit to which users are prepared to use such tools.

Limited evidence was identified of a direct link between the provision of customised information and households being prompted to retrofit. However, various literature sources quoting both professionals and typical consumers call for interactivity and customisation of EPCs. There is also relatable evidence that the provision of tailored information to households can prompt behavioural change. Offering households some level of interactivity alongside a traditional ‘static’ EPC could therefore be beneficial. Unfortunately, no direct evidence was found to support whether simpler or more detailed interaction is more likely to prompt households to retrofit.

Considerations for implementation

If the Scottish Government is minded to pursue an interactive tool, there are various options. It may commission its own interactive tool, or alternatively, it may look to use or adapt an existing tool to deliver a similar service.

The Scottish Government will also need to consider how best to integrate net zero policy ambitions in the implementation of any tool outputs or recommendations.

Providing sufficient interaction/ customisation for end users to feel that outputs are relevant to them is likely to be most important. The ability to update information from a ‘static’ EPC to reflect changes that have already taken place will likely be key. Furthermore, the ability to toggle retrofit measures will give users a sense of choice and control.

While a relatively simple implementation may suit the majority of potential users, a minority of users may see particular benefit in tailoring a wider range of input variables. If ‘detailed interactivity’ were implemented (as defined above), then customised views/ functions for different user groups may help simplify the user experience.

Glossary / Abbreviations table

EER	Energy Efficiency Rating (from EPC certificates)
EIR	Environmental Impact Rating (from EPC certificates)
EPC	Energy Performance Certificate
GDOA	Green Deal Occupancy Assessment
PCDB	Product Characteristics Database
RdSAP	Reduced Data Standard Assessment Procedure. The Government tool for assessing the energy performance of existing homes for regulatory requirements.

Introduction

This project considers how an interactive Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) user interface may help to increase public uptake of energy efficiency and clean heating options in homes.

There could be an opportunity to integrate data that would support the development of an interactive EPC user interface when assessing the future needs of the national EPC register in Scotland. A system that enables the public to better assess energy efficiency and clean heat options may be expected to increase uptake of these measures. However, the Scottish Government needs to understand the likely benefits and limitations of such an interactive user interface before it makes decisions on changes to the EPC register.

Background and research scope

The focus of this report is on domestic EPCs. An EPC assessment combines findings from a physical survey of a building with standardised assumptions on how it is used. EPCs therefore provide an ‘asset performance assessment’ that allows homes to be compared to others elsewhere in the country. This is regardless of whether they are different sizes, specifications, or have different systems and/or use patterns. They are accompanied by a Recommendations Report. This provides examples of measures that may improve the efficiency of the home and make savings, intended to encourage homeowners to take action. Recommendations are presented in a set sequence that follows a fabric-first approach, with renewable energy sources considered last. EPCs are therefore an important source of information for homeowners and buyers to inform decision making.

However, the presentation of recommendations and savings means users are not aware of the impacts of implementing measures out of sequence. Also, EPCs do not provide information regarding potential options for switching to cleaner heat systems where properties are currently served by another fuel type. EPCs as therefore not necessarily aligned with the aims of the Scottish Government Heat in Buildings Strategy with regard to clean heat systems. Savings predictions reflect the standardised assumptions made in the EPC calculation in relation to occupancy and heating patterns. This makes the EPC less helpful when a homeowner wants to understand the benefits and savings they may experience according to their own circumstances. Offering users a level of interactivity may allow benefits of different potential improvement measures to be expressed. This can lead to more tailored recommendations and thus may better support users to act on them. There could therefore be value in a traditional ‘static’ public EPC for regulatory compliance, and an interactive interface to provide customisation for homeowners.

The scope of the research was therefore to identify the data inputs and outputs that may be relevant to an interactive EPC and consider how data inputs may be sourced.

The focus was on interactivity that would allow homeowners to input contextual information about how they use their home; essentially customising aspects of the EPC calculation that would otherwise use standardised assumptions, e.g. occupancy, heating patterns and temperatures. It was assumed that data obtained from an original EPC building survey would not fundamentally be challenged, e.g. floor areas, construction types. However, it is acknowledged that homeowners may wish to update information where retrofit works had already taken place since the EPC was carried out. For example, when new insulation has been installed or when energy systems have been upgraded or changed. Note that implications of the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) on interactive EPCs were deemed beyond the scope of this study.

Further, we sought evidence to understand the benefits and limitations that an interactive EPC interface may provide, to demonstrate whether user interactivity has led to increased uptake of retrofit measures. Our research explored a number of existing tools that offer a level of interactivity with EPC-like outputs. These were primarily targeted at homeowners (i.e. covering domestic/ residential properties), although portfolio-level tools were also briefly considered. The research also involved a desk-based literature review.

Data inputs and outputs for potential EPC interactivity

EPC review

Domestic EPCs for Scotland are produced using the UK Government’s Standard Assessment Procedure (SAP) implemented in approved software tools. For existing dwellings, it is recognised that detailed construction information is unlikely to be available. A ‘reduced data’ version of SAP (RdSAP) is therefore used, which makes assumptions about the construction based on age, etc. A selection of the inputs and outputs of the resulting calculation are held centrally in the Scottish Government’s EPC Register. Note, however, that not all intermediary outputs from the RdSAP calculation steps are held on the Register.

EPC outputs

We reviewed the outputs reported on a current Scottish domestic EPC (as at 2024). Those that may be relevant to end users making decisions on energy efficiency and clean heat measures were identified, as noted below. Further metrics proposed in the Scottish Government consultation on EPC reform were also considered for insight into potential future changes.

Energy Efficiency Rating (EER) (also known as the ‘SAP score’; Proposed to be called ‘Energy Cost Rating’ following EPC reform)
Environmental Impact Rating (EIR)
Primary energy indicator (kWh/m²year)
Running costs (£ for 3 years)
Savings (from potential recommended measures) (£ for 3 years)
Savings per recommended measure (£ for 3 years)
Recommended measures capital cost (£)
Emissions from the home (kgCO₂/m²/year)
Space heating demand (kWh/year)
Water heating demand (kWh/year)
Heat Retention Rating (proposed for EPC reform; expected to be similar to Space heating demand metric)
Total energy use (proposed for EPC reform; expected to be similar to the calculation for primary energy indicator, but for delivered energy, i.e. without primary energy multiplier)

Dependent inputs

We then interrogated the underlying RdSAP calculation methodology^[1] to identify the key inputs used to calculate the identified outputs. All outputs are derived from numerous inputs and calculation steps, with the exception of ‘Recommended measures capital costs’, which are simply quoted reference values. Inputs that offer the potential for contextual customisation relevant to particular occupant behaviour/use are noted below.

Fuel prices and standing charges
Capital costs for retrofit measures
Number of occupants
Number of baths or showers taken per day
Living room comfort temperature set point
Heating pattern on/off times (for a normal day and an alternative day, e.g. weekend)
External temperature (from regional climate information)

Ease of implementation

We made a qualitative assessment of the ease with which the above EPC outputs may be customised via calculation. Extensive customisation of an RdSAP calculation using occupancy parameters was implemented in the Green Deal Occupancy Assessment (GDOA) tool^[2]. Since the GDOA tool functionality already exists^[3], customisation of a number of contextual/ user inputs could be relatively easily facilitated in an RdSAP 2012 calculation. The following ‘ease of implementation’ ranking was therefore applied to the EPC outputs identified above:

High ease: Where an output already held on the Scottish EPC register could be adapted via a straightforward side calculation (i.e. where no RdSAP calculation engine would be required to re-model the impact).
Medium ease: Where the output could be updated by implementing aspects of the GDOA as part of a new RdSAP calculation, using data held on the EPC register.
Low ease: Where customisation of metrics has not previously been implemented in an RdSAP calculation, and therefore more work would be required to implement.

Note: In assigning this ‘ease’ hierarchy, it is assumed that the data held in the non-public version of the Scottish EPC register aligns with the import requirements of an RdSAP 2012 calculation. This appears likely to be the case based on summary information provided by the Scottish Government for this study. However, this would need to be verified in order to validate the recommendations of this study.

Table 1 shows the qualitative ‘ease of implementation’ ranking for customised EPC outputs.

The table refers to the SAP Product Characteristics Database (PCDB). The PCDB holds reference data for mechanical systems, which is used in SAP and RdSAP calculations. It also holds fuel prices and estimates for the capital costs of measures that are used in RdSAP calculations. Fuel prices are updated in the PCDB every 6 months but they are fixed in an EPC at the time of its issue. Capital cost of measures are only updated when a new version of the RdSAP methodology is released.

Currently, the EPC register does not store fuel use totals from the RdSAP calculation, although it is an intermediary calculated value that underpins many subsequent metrics. It is understood that this data is absent from both the public and non-public versions of the register held by the Scottish Government. It follows that even relatively simple-seeming amendments to EPC outputs, e.g. updating fuel prices, would require an RdSAP calculation to be re-run. Two scenarios have been presented in Table 1 for ‘Recommended measures capital cost’. Scenario A is assigned a ‘high’ ease of implementation, while Scenario B is assigned a ‘low’ ease of implementation. The measures costs applied to an EPC are generic and not tailored to the property (e.g. according to property dimensions, or similar). Scenario A assumes this is still the case but an alternative, updated source for measures costs could be referenced by an interactive tool. Customised retrofit measures costs were not a function that was implemented in the GDOA. Therefore, if such a customisation function were desired, this scenario would have a low ease of implementation.

EPC output	Ease of customisation ranking	Notes
Energy Efficiency Rating (EER) (Energy Cost Rating)	N/A	A regulatory metric fundamentally based on standardised assumptions for comparability. We therefore suggest that this metric should not be customised.
Environmental Impact Rating (EIR)	N/A	As with EER, a regulatory metric fundamentally based on standardised assumptions for comparability. We therefore suggest that this metric should not be customised.
Primary energy indicator	Medium	Calculation re-run with inputs customised.
Running costs	Medium	Calculation re-run with custom fuel prices, updated costs from PCDB and/or with other inputs customised.
Savings (from potential retrofit measures) (also ‘per measure’)	Medium	Calculation re-run with custom fuel prices, updated costs from PCDB and/or with other inputs customised.
Recommended measures capital cost	Scenario A: High Scenario B: Low	Scenario A: Values are not used in any output calculations. Updated typical/ generic values from an external source could therefore be presented to users relatively easily. Scenario B: Currently no function exists to ‘customise’ costs via an RdSAP calculation (e.g. according to property dimensions, or similar).
Emissions from the home	Medium	Calculation re-run with inputs customised.
Space heating demand	Medium	Calculation re-run with inputs customised.
Water heating demand	Medium	Calculation re-run with inputs customised.
Heat Retention Rating (proposed)	N/A	Proposed to be a regulatory metric fundamentally based on standard assumptions for comparability. We therefore suggest that this metric should not be customised.
Total energy use (proposed)	Medium	Calculation re-run with inputs customised.

Table 1: Ranking of current and proposed EPC outputs according to their anticipated
ease of customisation

End user value of existing EPC outputs

The EPC outputs identified in 5.1.1 were qualitatively assessed for their likely importance to end users in retrofit decision making. Discussions were held with Retrofit Coordinators at the National Energy Foundation, who directly engage with households on energy retrofit. Their feedback is supported in various studies (including National Retrofit Hub (NRH), (2024), Which? (2024), Jones (2022), and Bančič, Vetršek and Podjed (2021)) that have examined which metrics different end users find or would find valuable when considering home upgrades. In Table 2, the EPC outputs have again been assigned a ranking, this time indicating their expected usefulness to end users. Notes provide supporting rationale for each ranking.

EPC output	Likely importance to end users	Notes
Energy Efficiency Rating (EER) (Energy Cost Rating)	Medium	As a relative metric intended to enable comparison between dwellings, it is somewhat conceptual for consumers. However, it does show a relative point on a sliding scale of ‘good’ and ‘poor’ energy efficiency performance.
Environmental Impact Rating (EIR)	Low	Most consumers do not have a tangible concept of carbon emissions, although the rating does show a relative point on a sliding scale of ‘good’ and ‘poor’ environmental performance.
Primary energy indicator	Low	Primary energy is likely to be an unfamiliar concept for most consumers. It does not correspond directly to people’s actual energy bills despite incorporating ‘kWh’, which could cause confusion.
Running costs	High	Likely to be one of the most important, and tangible, indicators for consumers.
Savings (from recommended measures)	High	Likely to be one of the most important, and tangible, indicators for consumers.
Recommended measures capital cost	High	Consumers may not otherwise have an idea of relative costs of improvement measures prior to seeking their own quotes for work.
Emissions from the home	Low	Most consumers do not have a tangible concept of carbon emissions.
Space heating demand (Heat Retention Metric)	Medium	Allows users to see a breakdown of energy by end use (i.e. space heating). Some people may not readily relate to it being expressed in ‘kWh’.
Water heating demand	Medium	Allows users to see a breakdown of energy by end use (i.e. water heating). Some people may not readily relate to it being expressed in ‘kWh’.

Table 2: Ranking of EPC outputs according to their likely importance to end users
in retrofit decision making

Simple cost-based metrics are more likely to be easily understood by consumers and are therefore more likely to contribute to retrofit decision making. This includes running costs and cost savings from potential retrofit measures. Energy assessors, consultants or other professionals in the sector may see value in the other metrics, but feedback suggests these are of less use to households. Furthermore, the concept of carbon emissions is identified in the above reference sources as not being tangible for most consumers, despite national policy striving for ‘net zero’.

Review of existing interactive home energy advice tools

Numerous tools are available, beyond a traditional RdSAP calculation, that offer EPC-type outputs to users with a level of interactivity/customisation. A selection of these tools were reviewed for this study to consider the possible forms a Scottish EPC user interface could take. Tools were identified using web searches and the knowledge of the research team. Criteria for inclusion included:

A domestic/ housing focus
An aspect of interactivity/customisation
Outputs similar in nature to those on an EPC (e.g. energy use, cost, retrofit recommendations)

Six tools were then selected for more detailed investigation. Selection criteria included:

Sufficient information available so they could be assessed for this research
Tools offering differing levels of interactivity/customisation
Limiting duplication of tools created by a single organisation, unless they offered something distinctly different from one another
Inclusion of a commercial/ portfolio assessment tool

We assessed outputs provided by each tool and the customisable inputs they request from users. These are summarised in Table 5 and Table 6 respectively, in Appendix A, alongside the outputs and inputs discussed earlier for EPCs. For the latter, the potential inputs are those of the RdSAP Green Deal Occupancy Assessment, which is taken as a baseline for calculation customisation potential.

It is apparent that many consumer-facing tools are based on a limited number of calculation engines. The Energy Saving Trust (EST) engine and the Parity Projects/ Core Logic engine appear to be popular options underpinning branded tools. These front-end tools may offer slight variations in presentation or user functionality, but they draw on the same foundational data and calculation approach. All tools rely on an underlying RdSAP calculation engine to generate outputs. However, they do not offer the full functionality of RdSAP to be customised, instead utilising many assumptions and generalisations. Most tools use at least some EPC data (from the EPC register) to pre-populate information for calculations.

Tools typically offer one or more of the following levels of interactivity/customisation:

Ability to toggle potential retrofit measures on or off and assess impacts/ benefits
Ability to make simple updates to property data (compared to that held on EPC), e.g. if insulation or new windows have been installed. Some also ask if there is space to facilitate renewable energy systems
Ability to provide basic contextual or occupancy information (some tools will typically progress with assumptions if users do not wish to provide customised information e.g., number of occupants, typical living room set point temperature, when people are typically at home)
Ability to provide more detailed contextual or occupancy information (again, some tools will typically progress with assumptions if users do not wish to provide customise information e.g., number of baths and showers taken per week, actual energy use totals from bills)

Many tools also offer further interactivity that does not relate to the calculations process but provides users with additional information. Examples include click-through links providing:

Specific information about retrofit measures
Information about potential funding or finance options
Links to trusted trades or advisory services (e.g., TrustMark, one-stop-shops)
Links to professional whole house retrofit plan or Retrofit Coordination services

It was noted in discussions with NEF that consumers often feedback that they are not confident translating a retrofit plan into action. There is apparently often distrust of trades/ contractors. Qualitative information such as that above may help households build confidence to take plans forward.

None of the consumer-facing tools reviewed allows for customisation to the same extent as the GDOA tool. The EST/ Home Energy Scotland tool provided the widest range of user customisation options. From discussions with a selection of tool owners, their user testing and feedback has identified a need for relative simplicity. It is assumed that this reasoning has also been applied to other tools, as they often offer similar functionality.

All the reviewed tools focus on the outputs expected to be of most value to consumers, as noted in section 5.1.4. These include running costs, cost savings from measures and the expected capital cost of retrofit measures. Most tools also report associated carbon emissions. However, despite this alignment in key outputs, the extent to which inputs can be customised varies across tools. It may be expected that outputs based on more extensive customisation will be more representative of a user’s actual circumstances. It is relatively unlikely that users will have an appreciation of this though, since they may only ever interact with one tool. All tools evidently have their place in the market, though it is very difficult to accurately assess their respective ‘success’ (i.e. the extent to which they encourage homeowners to undertake retrofit). Some commentary is offered in relation to specific tools below.

A consistent aspect of functionality offered across all tools is the ability to update whether some building elements have already been enhanced. They all also offer the option to select different potential retrofit measures to form a tailored retrofit plan. It should be noted however, that these outputs are not equivalent to a ‘whole house retrofit plan’ as defined by the PAS 2035 framework (BSI, 2023). These aspects of interactivity can help consumers consider the impacts of certain retrofit options and thus they can provide a useful step beyond a traditional ‘static’ EPC. It may be inferred that these are the aspects of most value to consumers, and there is perhaps less focus on perceived ‘accuracy’ of further customisation. Some aspects of the reviewed tools are discussed in more detail below.

UK Government ‘Find ways to save energy’ tool

This tool is owned by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ). It uses an RdSAP engine hosted by BRE that implements selected parts of the GDOA. It includes default assumptions being made for parts of the GDOA that users are not asked to customise. DESNZ have indicated in discussions that user testing and consumer feedback has shaped the current functionality of the tool. For example, an earlier release of the tool included more customisation questions. However, these were removed as they led to high levels of user ‘drop out’ associated with those questions (i.e. users exited the online tool without completing beyond certain questions). Additional feedback suggests that a minority of users (estimated ~10%) would like more detail than the tool currently offers. DESNZ are exploring options for potential future updates.

EST engine backed tools

Three different tools were reviewed that utilise EST’s calculation engine:

Home energy check (branded as Home Energy Scotland)
Go renewable tool, developed with the Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS)
The Snugg Plan Builder (an example with a custom branded front end)

Each offers slightly different functionality and very different user interfaces. For example, the Home Energy Scotland tool does not directly link with the EPC register. However, users are encouraged to obtain their EPC information (from the register if not readily available) to aid answering questions. The Go renewable tool, as the name suggests, focusses on advising on renewable energy systems. It also gives recommendations on basic fabric efficiency measures that should ideally be carried out in conjunction with certain renewables.

Go Renewable and the Snugg Plan Builder each introduce some novel output metrics. Go Renewable offers a ‘heating system running cost metric’, which allows different heating system options to be directly compared. The Snugg tool features a metric on the potential income from a PV system (based on the Smart Export Guarantee). It also estimates a potential increase in property value increase resulting from installing retrofit measures. ‘Savings’ metrics may not motivate landlords or people that do not expect to stay in a home that long. However, metrics linked to property value may be an alternative motivator for such users.

Parity Project/ Core Logic ‘EcoRefurb’ tool

EcoRefurb is part of the Core Logic ‘Plan Builder’ suite of tools. It is an example of a branded front-end tool that uses the underlying Core Logic engine. According to the developers, user testing shaped the development of both inputs and outputs within the tool. One key aspect they identified as important was the provision more customised measure recommendation costs for users. Very few users apparently fed back that they would like to get into more detail in the initial assessment. More detail may be customised in the Plan Builder tool Core Logic provide to Retrofit Coordinators (similar to that in the GDOA) however, this was not reviewed during this study.

IRT ‘DREam’ stock assessment tool

Stock-level assessment tools were also considered during this study, although it is acknowledged that householders are not their target end users. The IRT tool is one such example intended for housing providers^[4] (e.g. social landlords) to assess potential retrofit options at a stock level. Customisation typically focuses on filling data gaps where individual property surveys or EPCs have not been conducted. They also allow updated information to be input, based on maintenance records for example, to provide updated energy data for properties. A key feature of the DREam tool is that it integrates a map function and can overlay areas by index of multiple deprivation for example. It also provides comparisons of funding options that may support housing providers to deliver area based retrofit schemes. Understandably, occupancy-based customisation is not a focus of tools such as this. However, the property information updating and measures toggling functions are evidently important interactive outputs for the tool’s target audience.

Discussion: Levels of interactivity

Three broad levels of interactivity (simple, medium and detailed) are identified here for potential application to the existing EPC, for consideration by the Scottish Government. These levels reflect the functionality of the calculation tools that underpin an EPC and the capabilities of other existing interactive ‘energy advice’ tools that have been reviewed. This also assumes that data from the non-public version of the Scottish EPC register is sufficient to recreate a new RdSAP 2012 calculation for a dwelling.

Simple interaction

This is characterised as interaction that requires no new user data to be input and no calculation engine. Examples of potential functionality could include:

The ability to provide switchable, customised or simplified views for data for different types of user via an online interface. For example, more detailed EPC information could be accessible by professionals, while only key outputs may be required by households, with options to switch between views.
Click-through links signposting users to further information – such as details about measures or funding, links to trusted tradespeople or advisory services, etc.

Medium interaction

At this level, no new data inputs are required from users, but an RdSAP calculation engine would be needed to support provision of increased interactivity. Examples of potential functionality could include:

Allowing users to select their own potential retrofit measures, providing tailored cost savings for different retrofit approaches or combinations of measures (rather than a fixed sequence as per the current EPC methodology).
Enabling potential updates to property information where retrofit measures have already been installed.
Incorporating updated fuel costs sourced from the latest version of the PCDB.

Detailed interaction

Here it is assumed that a calculation engine is capable of incorporating customised user inputs to inform updated outputs. (All of the medium interaction functions above should also be possible at this level.) Examples of potential customisation could include updating with:

Actual household fuel costs and standing charges.
Actual number of occupants.
Actual living room temperature set points, heating schedules.
Actual number of baths or showers taken per day by household.

Section 6 discusses the ease with which data inputs may be sourced. It highlights that there may be a sliding scale of complexity of customisation at the ‘detailed’ level.

Implications related to RdSAP 10 and the Home Energy Model (HEM)

Data currently held on the Scottish EPC Register will have been created using the RdSAP 2012 software version. Reusing this data to re-run a new RdSAP calculation will therefore be more straightforward with an RdSAP 2012 engine. This is subject to confirmation that data held in the non-public version of the register is an appropriate format.

An updated version of the software, RdSAP 10, is currently in development. The ‘full’ version of SAP 10 has been in use since 2022 for newly built homes. It introduces several updates, related to heat pumps and introduces battery storage into calculations.

Translation of existing EPC Register data (created under RdSAP 2012) for use with a newer SAP engine such as the proposed RdSAP 10 would be more complex. Additional assumptions would need to be added alongside the original data from the EPC register. Furthermore, there is also no GDOA implementation in RdSAP 10 (i.e. customisation of occupancy parameters), so a further exercise would be required to replicate this functionality. However, moving to an RdSAP 10 engine would bring any new tool in line with the most current calculations, based on updated research.

The Home Energy Model (HEM) is a new calculation methodology that will eventually replace SAP and RdSAP. A key change in this approach is that calculations will be performed with much finer time resolution. While existing SAP and RdSAP calculations consider a monthly timestep, HEM utilises a 30-minute resolution. This is expected to better-represent heating demands, energy storage and demand flexibility potential for example.

HEM is based on a fundamentally different underpinning architecture compared to SAP. It will use ‘wrappers’ to assess different use cases, with each wrapper defining inputs and outputs that are processed by the core HEM model. One such wrapper will support the Future Homes Standard (FHS). In this context, key changes to modelling assumptions are expected compared to SAP. For example, assumptions about occupancy being linked to floor area (as in SAP) to being based on the number of bedrooms in a property. These changes reflect evolving consumer behaviours and systems operation patterns, highlighting further divergence from the assumptions used in SAP 10.

HEM will undoubtedly offer additional functionality compared to SAP, along with the ability to assess certain technologies more effectively due to its increased granularity. Some innovators, such as City Science and Furbnow, are already attempting to link existing home energy assessments to HEM. Both have undertaken projects in this space with the support of Innovate UK. However, during presentations at the Innovate UK ‘Net Zero Heat Open Day’ both organisations reported that additional input data, gathered from surveys and/or monitoring, is needed to achieve this (UKRI, 2024). That being the case, it seems unlikely that data from the existing EPC register could readily be aligned with HEM. Exploring the effort likely required in achieving this was beyond the scope of this study.

Data collection/ input methods and limitations

Review of potential data sources

A number of potentially customisable data inputs were identified in section 5.1.2.^[5] This section explores ways such data may be sourced and/ or physically input into a tool (e.g., automated versus manual methods). While several theoretical options have been explored, the likelihood of some such information being available/ usable short term is low.

Table 7 in Appendix A gives an overview of relevant data input options that were identified during this study. Each input method was qualitatively assessed, based on the research team’s judgement, on a ‘high, medium, or low’ scale against the following parameters:

The ease of data input for the user
Likely reliability of the information
Likelihood of an information source to be available in the short-to-medium term

The rankings were assigned a score (High = 3, Medium = 2, Low = 1). These were summed to provide an overall current ‘readiness’ metric (scored out of 9).

Manual data entry approaches

Manual approaches rely on households obtaining data from existing sources (such as energy bills) or simply recalling their comfort/ heating preferences (e.g. temperature set points and heating patterns). Users will also readily know how many occupants are typically in the house.

The current readiness score of some manual inputs reflects the potential risk of reduced reliability when households need to consider typical conditions over a whole year. For example, if users never adjust temperature set points on their thermostats, reliability of temperature inputs may be high. This may also be the case if they never adjust programmed heating patterns. However, users are unlikely to take account of incidental day-to-day or seasonal adjustments made outside the normal programming. It is also unlikely that households would consistently track their average number of baths and showers per day for a whole year. A best estimate based on typical patterns seems far more likely. Reliability of some inputs may therefore be low when it depends on household recollection rather than on actual recorded data.

Automated data entry approaches

Automated methods range from updating information from the PCDB through to potentially obtaining data from internet of things smart devices. Fuel prices and standing charges could be taken from the most recent version of the PCDB. There are artificial intelligence (AI) tools that exist (generally intended for businesses) that can extract information from digital energy bills. However, for individual households, such tools are unlikely to be warranted since the information could manually be obtained relatively easily. Smart sensors include motion detectors (inferring occupancy), shower sensors, thermostats and programmers. All of these devices may theoretically be able to track and log conditions and output household data.

Note that there is currently no function or API (Application Programming Interface) to import external data sources into an RdSAP calculation. SAP calculations call on data held in the PCDB, but this database is updated periodically and not accessed ‘live’. The automated transfer of data is therefore an aspect that would need to be developed, if such functionality were desired. Subsequently, any proprietary sources of data (e.g. from consumer apps) would need to be collated and formatted accordingly to feed into SAP. It is assumed that users would be unlikely to manually process such data themselves if it were not automatically formatted and exported.

Automated methods therefore tend to score less highly than equivalent manual methods in the combined readiness metric. They score highly with respect to the ease of data input for the user and many provide inherently reliable data. However, they score low on the short-term likelihood for such automated functionality to be available. Fuel prices updated automatically from the PCDB are assumed to be less reliable than actual data from household bills due to averaging. However, the relative ease of implementing such an update still gives a high overall readiness score (8 out of 9).

Discussion of external temperature data

The RdSAP calculation utilises climate data broken down into 21 UK regions. These include assumptions for monthly average external temperatures. It is possible that some users may question whether the granularity of these climate zones is representative of their local conditions. However, it is quite likely that most users would not have the necessary awareness to challenge the relative accuracy of the climate data used.

Monthly temperature data is available from the MET office (the source of the current RdSAP climate data) at a resolution of 2km. This is a far higher resolution than the 21 UK regions. The format is essentially the same as is used in an RdSAP calculation. However, it would require reasonable effort (and signposting) for users to obtain this data manually and enter it into a user interface. As discussed above for automated methods, there is currently no function for new data to be imported into RdSAP. This would need to be specifically developed to automate the input of new, more granular external temperature data.

Something of potential interest to users and the Scottish Government is that the MET Office also provide ‘future climate scenario’ data sets. If incorporated into an RdSAP calculation, it would be possible to see the impact of changing climate conditions on key outputs and recommendations. Granularity varies depending on the type of climate predictions offered. For example, monthly average temperature predictions against the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5) are projected at a 12km scale. Import of such data to RdSAP would face the same challenges as other updated MET Office data noted above.

Varying interactivity options for outputs

Table 3 shows the outputs assessed as being of highest importance to consumers^[6] alongside the relevant potentially customisable inputs. ‘Emissions from the home’ is also included, since the policy focus of retrofit is ultimately on achieving net zero emissions. Both a ‘medium interaction’ and ‘detailed interaction’ version (as per section 5.3) is included where such options exist. Note the medium interaction would require a SAP calculation engine but no new user input, instead using updated information from the PCDB or elsewhere. The highest ‘readiness’ levels determined for each of the data inputs is presented in the table.

EPC output	Fuel prices	Fuel standing charge	Capital cost of retrofit measure	Number of occupants	Main temp set point	Heating pattern timings	Partially heated rooms	Number of baths & showers per day	External temp
Running costs (medium interaction)	8	8
Running cost (detailed interaction)	9	9		9	7	7	7	6	7
Running cost savings (medium interaction)	8
Running cost savings (detailed interaction)	9			9	7	7	7	6	7
Measures capital cost (medium or detailed)			7
Emissions from the home (detailed interaction)				9	7	7	7	6	7

Table 3: Highest ‘readiness level’ of data inputs that may be customised for
EPC outputs (at varying levels of interaction)

While some outputs in Table 3 have several potentially customisable inputs, not all may necessarily be customised. The example tools reviewed in section 5.2 implement different customisable inputs yet deliver essentially equivalent outputs. The inputs therefore represent a sliding scale of potential customisation.

Users may find it quite easy to customise one or two inputs with a high-scoring readiness indicator. Meanwhile, a more bespoke version of the same outputs may be possible, but the ease with which the data may be reliably obtained may be lower. This creates a potential risk of dubious accuracy; an output may seem to be accurate since it is based on multiple user customised variables. However, those variable values themselves may be inaccurate or unreliable, thus reducing the overall representativeness of the output. A sensitivity analysis on this phenomenon is unfortunately beyond the scope of this present study.

Absolute accuracy may not in fact be so relevant for an interactive tool intended to aid retrofit decision making. Pre- and post- retrofit energy performance of homes is relative; after all, many variables out of a user’s control influence energy consumption and cost over a given year. (e.g. external climate, energy price changes, varying household needs.) Providing sufficient interaction/ customisation for end users to feel that outputs are relevant to them is likely to be most important. The ability to update information from a ‘static’ EPC to reflect changes that have already taken place will likely be key. The ability to toggle retrofit measures selection will give users a sense of choice and control. Other input variables may be of more or less interest to users depending on how far they feel their behaviours are from ‘typical’. Households that align with these national trends may see little variation in customised calculations compared to default calculations. It is only when household characteristics are quite different from national trends that it may make notable differences to retrofit recommendations.

Evidence of intended outcomes

We looked for evidence that directly linked the use of interactive tools to the initiation of retrofit measures. Information was also sought on whether different types of interaction or customisation were more likely to prompt household decision making. A desk-based evidence review sought information from academic articles and grey literature. A selection of search terms were initially used, as detailed in Appendix B. These were expanded upon as other terms and concepts were identified in the reviewed sources.

In addition, advisors from NEF provided general feedback based on their experiences of directly supporting consumers with retrofit projects and administering grants.

Feedback related to the use of existing interactive energy advice tools, such as those discussed earlier, was also explored. This was primarily via online sources, though interviews were conducted with tool developers where possible. DESNZ (as owners of the UK Government ‘Find ways to save energy’ tool) and Core Logic (EcoRefurb tool) provided direct feedback on their respective tools.

The evidence review was widened to ‘relatable activities’ when it became clear that limited information was available on interactive tools and retrofit. Relatable activities were defined as those in which the provision of some form of customised information prompted behavioural change. The scope was limited to households and housing, and to at least energy-related behaviours, if not retrofit specifically. This broader search was not exhaustive but was intended to provide indicative context relevant to the primary concept.

Review of literature

Many sources suggest there is a need for interactivity and customisation of EPCs, with inference that this could promote the uptake of retrofit measures. However, no evidence was identified in the literature review to confirm that interactive tools would, or have directly, prompted retrofit actions. Nor did the literature review indicate what level of interaction or customisation might be more likely to prompt households to undertake retrofit.

Several EU research projects have explored ways that EPCs could be improved to better-serve various end uses (e.g. U-CERT, D2EPC, X-Tendo, CHRONICLE, EDYCE, Smart living EPC). U-CERT produced an extensive series of recommendations for EPCs (Bančič, Vetršek, and Podjed, 2021). This followed interviews and focus groups with different types of potential EPC users across 11 participating EU countries. Some recommendations related to improved granularity of calculations and reducing the ‘performance gap’ by using dynamic simulation and the use of measured data. However, many specifically focus on helping users better understanding energy use and prompting retrofit action. Several of these are also recognised in other sources (discussed below).

Example recommendations include:

Focus on cost-based metrics, as these are most tangible for users
Offer interactivity to make the information relevant to a user’s own circumstances and context
Provide different views tailored to the needs and knowledge levels of various users:
(a) non-professional users, for buying and selling properties, for energy management, and for retrofit recommendations.
(b) Professionals and more advanced users with more detail and technically specific data.
Digitalisation offers the potential for a ‘modular’ approach from basic to expert with options according to user interests
Explain the context of assumptions, so users understand if their patterns are likely to be different to what is assumed

Various studies have investigated the extent to which current static EPCs motivate users to retrofit. A recent study by Which? (2024) indicated that EPCs are rarely used to inform renovation decisions. Users instead rely on advice from builders or their intuition. The study suggests that the current format of EPCs does not effectively encourage homeowners carry out energy efficient home improvements, nor does it meaningfully guide their choice of measures.

The D2EPC research study found that less than 5% of end users were motivated to retrofit because of their EPC (Panteli and Duri, 2021). At least half of those surveyed were also not convinced that their EPC accurately represented their building’s energy efficiency. A Barclays/ Ipsos survey (Barclays, 2023) suggests that over half of homeowners do not feel confident making homes more energy efficient. A further study (Hiscox, 2018) indicates that a third of those surveyed renovated to keep up with current trends rather than for functional reasons.

The U-CERT and Which? studies indicate there is a need to update an EPC so they can still be relevant if some changes/ improvements are made. Otherwise they are readily obsolete (Bančič, Vetršek, and Podjed, 2021; Which?, 2024). The Which? study also states that EPC recommendations are too rigid, presented in a specific order rather than tailored to household priorities and budgets. This need for greater flexibility was echoed in discussions with Retrofit Coordinators at NEF who work directly with consumers. They observe that many households are favouring less disruptive, less risky technologies, rather than deep energy efficiency retrofit measures. App-linked technologies also gaining popularity, raising people’s interest in things like heat pumps, PV and battery storage.

This supports a case for savings forecasting across a flexible sequence of measures, rather than the pre-defined order used in EPCs. However, NEF note the importance of linked guidance (i.e. simple interactivity) on risks and implications of implementing measures outside a validated sequence. They advocate the role of Retrofit Coordinators in developing whole house retrofit plans to help households avoid unintended consequences. The U-CERT recommendations similarly stress the value of contextual information and guidance alongside an EPC (Bančič, Vetršek, and Podjed, 2021).

The majority of reviewed literature generally supported the concept of interactivity for EPCs. However, in the experience of innovators ‘Furbnow’ (UKRI, 2024), some users were not confident in entering property data in EPC tools. For this study, we recognise that there is a risk that too much complexity could deter users. Simpler interactivity may therefore be preferable.

Review of relatable activities

The literature review was widened to ‘relatable activities’ based on the research team’s experiences in the energy and retrofit sector. This included exploring links between interactive outputs and intended behavioural change on retrofit plans, smart meters and green finance (for retrofit). Reviewing these relatable activities provided some evidence that customised and/ or interactive information can prompt intended behavioural change among households.

Retrofit plans

Retrofit plans are bespoke reports intended to guide owners on how to retrofit their homes. These follow the principle of considering the individual context of a retrofit, (e.g. user influence), i.e. they include customised recommendations. Building Passport trials (including renovation plans) have been in place for a number of years in several countries and have also been the subject of previous ClimateXChange research (Small-Warner & Sinclair, 2022). Despite this, no quantitative evidence was found that their implementation increases retrofit uptake. Only circumstantial evidence of ‘intent’ from end users was given, suggesting likely future uptake of measures. In other words, it is not currently possible to directly link the implementation of renovation plans in Building Passports to a measurable increase in retrofit.

In the iBroad project trial, the majority of respondents agreed that a renovation roadmap enables and motivates them to undertake retrofit measures (Irish Green Building Council (IGBC), 2020). Similarly, 63% of experts surveyed for the follow-up iBroad2EPC project believed that tool would motivate homeowners to renovate (Mellwig, Maiwald, and Pehnt, 2024).

It was observed that renovation plans implemented in EU countries generally follow national policy by prioritising energy efficiency recommendations before renewable energy measures (Enefirst, no date). This is similar to the current approach taken in UK EPCs. As implemented, these plans do not necessarily provide the flexibility called for in many discussions of EPC reform. They are however, tailored to personal circumstances based on assessor expertise.

Smart meters

Smart meters serve multiple purposes. These include accurate billing, supporting the use of flexible tariffs, and improving visibility of the granularity of energy use at a local and national level. Alongside in-home displays, smart meters provide information that can help households to understand and potentially reduce their energy use.

A study for Smart Energy GB (Populus, 2019) found that consumers with smart meters report a higher number of energy saving activities than non-users. These activities increased over time with continued active smart meter use. There were also increased levels of behavioural change, such as buying more efficient appliances and implementing energy saving habits. Smart meters also enabled people to take part in flexibility and Time of Use activities to save money. These benefits are attributed to the in-home display showing energy use in near real time. This tailored, real-time information was reported to aid users in identifying energy usage and making more informed decisions to reduce usage.

These findings are supported by several other studies, some of which highlight the importance of displaying data in terms of cost to make it more relatable to users. (Darby et al, 2015, National Centre for Social Research (NatCen), 2022, Marshall Cross et al, 2019).

Detailed data (i.e., at appliance level information) was found to be most useful and persuasive for end users. For example, Scottish Power data analysis of interactive app users suggests a 5% energy saving compared to non-users. This is attributed to the more detailed breakdown of energy use, which raises awareness among householders and prompts action (Scottish Power, no date).

These findings support the concept that the provision of bespoke, time-relevant and cost-based data can encourage behavioural change. This may be likened to the customisation of an EPC providing up to date cost saving measures recommendations. Similar behavioural motivations may therefore be experienced as has been seen with smart meters.

Green finance mechanisms

Green finance (i.e., lending that supports environmentally-friendly activities) has been briefly explored as a behavioural incentive for retrofit. Data from Knight Frank for example supports the view that users value properties with higher EPC ratings (Knight, 2022). As such, retrofit measures that improve an EPC could increase property value. While this does not directly relate to interactivity, introducing interactivity or customised elements to EPCs that link recommendations to potential increases in property value could help promote behavioural change towards retrofit. This may be particularly motivating for landlords or individuals that do not expect to stay in a property long term, for whom typical ‘savings’-based motivators may be of little interest. The Snugg/ EST tool mentioned in section 5.2.2 includes an assessment on post retrofit property value.

Review of existing tools

No direct evidence was found to indicate whether simpler versus more detailed interaction and customisation is more likely to prompt households to undertake retrofit. As discussed earlier, many of the existing advice tools reviewed for this study offer limited level of customisation features. Circumstantially, this supports the idea that a modest spectrum of interactivity and customisation may be sufficient to motivate consumers. It is noteworthy that many consumer-targeted energy advice tools ultimately refer users to a professional service, where more detail can be explored. Such tools therefore appear to be primarily intended as a mechanism to motivate households onto the next step on a retrofit journey.

Direct feedback was obtained via interview by DESNZ regarding the UK Government’s ‘Find ways to save energy’ tool. This is only an advice tool and is not formal linked to any retrofit delivery schemes. As such, DESNZ are unable to track a ‘success rate’ for how many users of the tool convert to actually implementing a retrofit.

Additional feedback was gathered by interview with product developers Core Logic regarding their EcoRefurb tool. Core Logic advise that it is a free online tool to give consumers an idea of the retrofit options that may be suitable for their home. Users are then encouraged to develop a more detailed Whole House Plan with a Retrofit Coordinator. The developer reports that around 50% of users that submit a plan via the free tool go on to obtain a Whole House Plan. They consider this a good uptake rate.

By the time that consumers engage with professionals, they are reportedly well-informed and have a clear idea of the improvements they wish to pursue. However, from this point, it can sometimes take a year or more for households to instigate measures. A similar observation was also shared by NEF, who noted that households may need to save up for works or may choose to align with wider home renovation activities.

Conclusions and recommendations

Our research finds that cost-based metrics are most tangible and motivating to end users. The following EPC outputs are likely to be the most worthwhile focus for any proposed interactivity or customisation:

Running costs
Running cost savings
Retrofit measures capital costs

We identified three potential levels of interactivity (Table 4) for the Scottish Government to consider implementing in relation to EPCs.

Level of interaction	New user data required?	Integration with calculation engine required?	Example functionality provided
Simple	No	No	Customised/ simplified views Click-through signposting to further information
Medium	No	Yes	Update with already-completed retrofit measures Select own retrofit measures and sequence Running costs updated by calling on updated cost information from the PCDB
Detailed	Yes	Yes	As per Medium interaction, plus: Manual user inputs. (Automated inputs currently limited by a lack of import functionality into RdSAP) More tailored versions of outputs by allowing more customisable inputs

Table 4: Potential levels of interactivity for EPCs

We did not find direct evidence to support whether simpler versus more detailed interaction or customisation is more likely to prompt households to retrofit. However, there appears to be significant demand from professionals and consumers for interactivity and customisation of EPCs. Additionally, there is relatable evidence from the use of smart meters, retrofit plans and from green lending that the provision of tailored information to households can prompt behavioural change. Offering households some level of interactivity alongside a traditional ‘static’ EPC could be beneficial.

All pf the tools reviewed in this study include the ability to update and toggle retrofit measures, addressing the call for increased flexibility in EPCs identified in the literature review. User testing and feedback from energy advice tool providers suggest that most existing tools offer a relatively limited degree of customisation. Circumstantially, this supports the notion that a modest level of customisation may represent the upper limit to what users are willing to engage with.

Many existing energy advice tools operate at the medium interaction level. There can be a sliding scale of complexity of customisation at the ‘detailed’ level. Importantly, greater customisation of inputs does not necessarily make the outputs more accurate, since confidence in various data inputs may be variable. The option to offer various customised or switchable views or functions for different users may help simplify an interactive EPC experience if necessary. For example, users could switch between ‘simple’ and ‘medium’ interaction views for users that do not wish to enter detailed personalised inputs.

At any level of customisation, it will be necessary to inform tool users that outputs are ultimately estimates. Actual energy use and costs will inevitably be influenced by a range of other factors e.g. annual climate severity, changing fuel prices, and changes in household circumstances, etc.

The implementation process may be more complicated depending on what version of SAP is targeted for use. RdSAP 2012 is the version used to create the EPCs currently on the register. Translation of existing EPC register data to use the newer RdSAP 10 engine would be more complex. It would also require some assumptions to be added alongside the original data from the EPC register. A move to align to RdSAP 10 would however bring the tool in line with a number of updated calculation assumptions. Moreover, the effort required to align with a HEM calculation has not been explored, though it is noted that the mechanics of HEM fundamentally differ from SAP. Considerable effort would be required by numerous parties to unlock the automated input of data i.e. an RdSAP tool provider (working on behalf of the Scottish Government) and proprietary software or app providers collecting user data.

Existing tools already deliver energy advice to households with varying degrees of interactivity and customisation. Therefore, rather than developing a new tool, the Scottish Government could consider whether a branded or adapted version of an existing tool may deliver a suitable service.

Opportunities and challenges of implementation

Interactive functionality has the potential to support the promotion of both energy efficiency measures and clean heating systems. There is clear scope to improve alignment with current Scottish Government policies on clean heat, particularly when compared to the limitations with existing EPCs. Currently, EPCs do not provide running cost or savings estimates for fuels types other than those currently used in the home. However, this functionality could potentially be introduced.

The Scottish Government will need to consider whether, and, how it wishes to support recommendations that involve the continued use of fossil-based systems. An interface could, in theory, be designed to present recommendations prioritised either for carbon savings or cost savings. Some of the tools reviewed for this study allow users to express their preference, which can subsequently influence the prioritisation of retrofit measures. The Scottish Government could choose to prioritise carbon savings in order to align with its ‘net zero’ policy. However, this may not align with the approach preferred by all households. Consideration of potential fuel poverty risks will also be needed.

Clean heat measures implemented in isolation from wider energy efficiency measures could lead to increased running costs for some users. However, the likelihood of this is reduced where heat pumps are adopted and appropriately installed (EST, no date, National Energy Association (NEA), 2022). Any changes in running costs should be clearly reflected in tool outputs to support informed decision making. However, this would stray from the current approach to retrofit recommendations on an existing EPC. These are prioritised ‘fabric-first’, and only those that would provide running cost savings are included.

Providing flexibility in how retrofit measures are recommended on an interactive EPC would likely be welcomed by users. However, this flexibility also introduces risks if retrofit measures are actioned without due consideration of wider property factors. For example, improving insulation and airtightness without adequate ventilation can lead to moisture build-up, which poses health risks due to damp and mould, and in some cases, structural damage (May and Griffiths, 2015). To mitigate this, linked guidance would be advisable where users have unlimited flexibility when selecting retrofit options. This would help prevent unintended consequences.

It is noted that the Scottish Government’s consultation for the Heat in Buildings Bill proposed a Heat and Energy Efficiency Technical Suitability Assessment (HEETSA) (Scottish Government, 2023). This is expected to offer a more tailored assessment of the suitability of retrofit than a standard EPC. If implemented, a HEETSA could play a role in reducing the risk of adverse outcomes from retrofit measures.

The provision of guidance and signposting (i.e., simple interactivity) may be a more user preferable and transparent alternative to policy-driven functionality. Users may lose trust in a tool if they feel the outputs are not aligned with their personal motivations. Conversely, they may value clear and candid advice, including information about potential risks, to support informed decision making.

Consideration may also need to be given to the skills and capacity of the retrofit delivery sector when designing an interactive tool. If the service proves very successful, an upturn in retrofit measures may be expected, which may outstrip local supply. Anonymously tracking the types of recommendations typically taken through to household retrofit plans could help identify potential capacity gaps within the delivery sector.

References

(All web references last accessed 18 February 2025)

Bančič, D., Vetršek, J. and Podjed, D. (2021) D2.3 Report on users’ perception on EPC scheme in U-CERT partner countries. Available at: https://u-certproject.eu/media/filer_public/
3c/30/3c30cb41-517f-4625-811c-0381eb745caa/u-cert_d23.pdf

Barclays. (2023) Homeowners put off energy efficiency upgrades due to misconceptions about cost and installation time. Available at: https://home.barclays/insights-old/2023/07/homeowners-put-off-energy-efficiency-upgrades-due-to-misconcepti/
#:~:text=Misconceptions%20around%20the%20cost%20and,homes%2C%20according%20to%20new%20research.

BRE. (2014) The Government’s Standard Assessment Procedure for Energy Rating of Dwellings 2012 edition. RdSAP 2012 version 9.92: Occupancy Assessment version Mar 2014. Published on behalf of DECC by BRE. Available at: https://files.bregroup.com/bre-co-uk-file-library-copy/filelibrary/SAP/2012/OccupancyAssessment2014.pdf

BRE. (2019) The Government’s Standard Assessment Procedure for Energy Rating of Dwellings 2012 edition. RdSAP 2012 version 9.94. Published on behalf of DECC by BRE. Available at: https://bregroup.com/documents/d/bre-group/rdsap_2012_9-94-20-09-2019

BSI. (2023) PAS 2035:2023. Retrofitting dwellings for improved energy efficiency – Specification and guidance. Published on behalf of DESNZ by British Standards Institution.

Darby, S. et al (2015) Smart Metering Early Learning Project: Synthesis report. Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC). Available at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/
media/5a818dd0e5274a2e8ab549c7/8_Synthesis_FINAL_25feb15.pdf

Enefirst. (no date) Building logbook – Woningpas: Exploiting efficiency potential in buildings through a digital building file. Available at: https://enefirst.eu/wp-content/uploads/
12_BUILDING-LOGBOOK-WONINGPAS.pdf

Energy Saving Trust (EST). (no date) Heat pumps: how they work, costs and savings. Available at: https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/advice/in-depth-guide-to-heat-pumps/

Hiscox. (2018) Hiscox Renovations and Extensions Report 2018. Available at: https://www.hiscox.co.uk/sites/uk/files/documents/2018-03/Hiscox_renovations
_extensions_report_2018.pdf

Irish Green Building Council (IGBC). (2020) Introducing building renovation passports in Ireland: Feasibility study. Available at: https://www.igbc.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/
Introducing-BRP-In-Ireland-Feasibility-Study.pdf

Jones, C. (2022) Optimised Retrofit: Engaging with residents; lessons learnt. Available at: https://chcymru.org.uk/cms-assets/documents/ORP_Engaging-with-residents_Lessons-Learnt_Sero_Grasshopper.pdf.

Knight, O. (2022) Improving your EPC rating could increase your home’s value by up to 20%. Available at: https://www.knightfrank.com/research/article/2022-10-11-improving-your-epc-rating-could-increase-your-homes-value-by-up-to-20

Marshall Cross, E. et al (2019) Smart meter benefits. Cost savings households could make within a smart energy future. A Delta-EE Viewpoint, February 2019. Available at: https://press.smartenergygb.org/media/otklgpuf/smart-meter-benefits-cost-savings-for-households-february-2019.pdf

Mellwig, P., Maiwald, F. and Pehnt, M. (2024) iBRoad2EPC ﬁeld test results. Available at: https://ibroad2epc.eu/?sdm_process_download=1&download_id=13627

National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) (2022) Research into maximising the benefits of smart metering for consumers. Qualitative research with smart meter consumers. Available at: https://natcen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-02/Research-into-maximising-the-benefits-of-smart-metering-for-consumers-Qualitative-research-with-smart-meter-consumers.pdf

National Energy Action (NEA). (2022) Making heat pumps work for fuel-poor households. Common challenges and top tips for overcoming them. Available at: https://www.nea.
org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Installing-heat-pumps-for-fuel-poor-households-landscape.pdf

National Retrofit Hub (2024) The future of energy performance certificates: A roadmap for change. Available at https://nationalretrofithub.org.uk/knowledge-hub/epc-reform/
#headline-531-936

Panteli, C. and Duri, M (2021) D1.2: Next-generation EPC’s user and stakeholder requirements & market needs v1. Available at: https://www.d2epc.eu/en/
Project%20Results%20%20Documents/D1.2.pdf

Populus. (2019) Smart meters and energy usage: a survey of energy behaviour among those who have had a smart meter, and those who have yet to get one. Available at: https://press.
smartenergygb.org/media/s3ujojpg/smart-meters-and-energy-usage-may-2019.pdf

Scottish Government. (2023) Delivering Net Zero for Scotland’s Buildings. A Consultation on proposals for a Heat in Buildings Bill. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/
delivering-net-zero-scotlands-buildings-consultation-proposals-heat-buildings-bill/

Scottish Power. (no date) Energy insights. Available at: https://www.scottishpower.co.uk/
energy-insights

Small-Warner, K. and Sinclair, C. (2022) Green Building Passports: a review for

Scotland. Published by BRE on behalf of ClimateXChange. Available at: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/cxc-green-building-passports-january-2022.pdf

May, N. and Griffiths. N. (2015) Planning responsible retrofit of traditional buildings. Sustainable Traditional Buildings Alliance (STBA). Available at: https://stbauk.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/STBA-planning_responsible_retrofit.pdf

UKRI. (2024) Net Zero Heat Open Day. Session 1: Rapid Assessment of Building Fabric Performance. Recordings available at: https://iuk-business-connect.org.uk/events/net-zero-heat-open-day/

Which? (2024) Transforming EPCs: Consumer Research Insights and Recommendations. Available at https://www.which.co.uk/policy-and-insight/article/transforming-epcs-consumer-research-insights-and-recommendations-a7mQM8Z6Pnpj

Appendices

: Supporting data

Outputs

Custom selection of retrofit measures for consideration

Energy Efficiency Rating (EER)/
Energy Cost Rating

Environmental Impact Rating (EIR)

Primary energy indicator

Running costs

Total running cost savings

Cost savings per retrofit measure

Recommended measures capital cost

Emissions from the home

Space heating demand/
Heat retention metric

Water heating demand

Total energy use

Heating system running costs

PV generation potential

Income from PV

Property value increase

EPC

Find ways to save energy (UK Gov)

Go Renewable (EST/MCS)

Home Energy Check (EST)

Snugg Plan Builder (EST)

EcoRefurb (CoreLogic)

DREam (IRT)

Table 5: Summary of outputs of existing interactive home energy advice tools, compared to EPCs

Inputs	Update property info, including completed retrofit measures	Number of occupants	Living room temperature set point	Heating pattern on/off times	Fuel prices & standing charges	Number of baths or showers taken per day	Any unheated or partially heated rooms	Types of appliances present	Fuel bill reconciliation function	Space around home for renewables
RdSAP GDOA	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X	X
Find ways to save energy (UK Gov)	X	X	X	X						X
Go Renewables (EST/MCS)	X	X	X	X
Home Energy Check (EST)	X	X	X	X		X			X
Snugg Plan Builder (EST)	X	X	X							X
EcoRefurb (CoreLogic)	X									X
DREam (IRT)	X

Table 6: Summary of customisable inputs of existing interactive home energy advice tools, compared with GDOA

Data input	Potential data collection/ input methods	Manual or automated?	Already on EPC register or PCDB? Y/N	Ease of data input for user HML	Likely reliability of data HML	Likelihood of availability (short-mid term) HML	Overall ‘readiness’ score	Notes
Fuel prices and standing charges	Actuals from recent fuel bills	Manual	No	High	High	High	9	Actual fuel price information should be easy for households to extract from energy bills.
Fuel prices and standing charges	PCDB updated prices (compared to original EPC)	Automated	Yes	High	Medium	High	8	Medium reliability as will be averages (updated 6 monthly) and not necessarily reflect local actuals.
Fuel prices and standing charges	Automated data extraction from fuel bills/ meters	Automated	No	High	High	Low	7	Current Optical Character Recognition (OCR)/ Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools exist to extract data from (pdf) energy bills. (Generally used by businesses with multiple sites/ fuels). Fuel prices theoretically available from smart meter data.
Capital costs	Actuals from user quotes	Manual	Yes	Low	High	Medium	6	Households could seek their own quotes for various works. However, the EPC does not calculate payback, so there is limited incentive for users to do this until they are relatively committed to pursuing the upgrade measure.
Capital costs	From a national average source	Automated	Yes	High	Medium	Medium	7	Industry/ government sourced data. Medium reliability, since it would give national averages and may not reflect local variations.
Number of occupants	Household knowledge	Manual	No	High	High	High	9	Based on household knowledge.
Number of occupants	Sensor data, IoT	Automated	No	High	Low	Low	5	It is technically possible to infer occupancy from motion sensors. Reliability depends on type of sensors/ mode of operation. Such sensors are not common in homes. It is also likely to be unnecessarily complex for a householder-owned dwelling and too intrusive for a let property. There may be push-back from users for such sensors to be used in this way from a privacy perspective.
Number of baths or showers per day	Household tracking	Manual	No	Medium	Medium	Medium	6	Households are likely to estimate typical number of showers or baths, rather than actually log it (particularly if averaged over a year). Such data may therefore not be entirely accurate, but if (estimated) pattern differs from default assumptions, could be an improvement.
Number of baths or showers per day	Sensor data, IoT	Automated	No	High	Medium	Low	6	Shower sensors exist that extract data on number of showers and duration. However, not common technology in homes. (Note this does not cover baths, so an incomplete picture if a mix of showers and baths used in household, hence Medium ease.)
External temperature	More localised weather file (for average monthly temp)	Manual	No	Medium	High	Medium	7	Data exists, format likely to be appropriate. Medium ease and likelihood for users to go to effort to obtain it and transpose it accurately.
External temperature	More localised weather file (for average monthly temp)	Automated	No	High	High	Low	7	Data exists, format likely to be appropriate. But would need to be linked to SAP (hence Low likelihood currently).
Main temperature set point	Household input (e.g. from programmed set points)	Manual	No	High	Medium	Medium	7	Ease to input a single average value, if one were available, would be high. If users vary their set points from time to time, the input may not be entirely reliable (medium). Users are unlikely to record historic set point information (so medium availability of information).
Main temperature set point	Extracted from home automation/ smart thermostat or similar	Automated	No	High	Medium	Low	6	Smart thermostats may log temperature setpoints. Not widespread in homes, and data not standardised. Would be based on real data, but may only be from a sample period that might not represent typical seasons.
Heating pattern/ on/off times, normal day and alternative day	Household input (e.g. from programmed set points)	Manual	No	High	Medium	Medium	7	Ease to input values, if patterns can be discerned, would be high. If users vary their heating patterns from time to time, the input may not be entirely reliable (medium). Users are unlikely to record historic patterns (so medium availability of information).
Heating pattern/ on/off times, normal day and alternative day	Extracted from home automation/ smart thermostat or similar	Automated	No	High	Medium	Low	6	Data availability from sensors/ programmers varies. Not widespread in homes, and data not standardised. Would be based on real data, but may only be from a sample period that might not represent typical seasons.
Any non-heated or partial heated rooms	Household knowledge	Manual	No	High	Medium	Medium	7	Determining a typical profile if rooms are occasionally heated may be complex. Recollection of such instances over a typical year could be unreliable. Households unlikely to record this. However, if rooms are consistently unheated, it may be relatively easy to report.
Any non-heated or partial heated rooms	Extracted from home automation/ smart thermostat or similar	Automated	No	High	Medium	Low	6	Same issues as extracting heating patterns from sensors, plus would require a room-by-room assessment.

Table 7: Qualitative assessment matrix for data inputs

: Methodology

Review of existing EPCs to identify data inputs and outputs for potential interactivity

An example of the current Scottish EPC format was reviewed. Outputs relevant to end users making decisions for energy efficiency and clean heat measures were identified. The Scottish Government consultation on EPC reform was also reviewed to give insight on future changes/ additional outputs.

The SAP calculation methodology used to create EPCs (RdSAP 2012 v9.94) was interrogated to extract the input data that could be customised to create the identified outputs. This focussed on metrics for which standardised assumptions are used by default in the calculation (e.g. occupancy). The Green Deal Occupancy Assessment, as set out in Appendix V of RdSAP 2012 v9.92, was referenced to help identify contextual parameters. The ease of implementation to make each output interactive was assessed qualitatively with developers in BRE’s SAP team. This followed a ‘high, medium, low’ rating based on the following criteria:

High ease: Where an output already held on the Scottish EPC register could be adapted via a straightforward calculation (i.e. no SAP calculation engine required).
Medium ease: Where the output could be updated by implementing aspects of the GDOA as part of a new RdSAP calculation, using data held on the EPC register.
Low ease: Where customisation of metrics has not previously been implemented in an RdSAP calculation, hence more work would be required to implement.

The likely importance/ value of each output, from an end user perspective, was qualitatively assessed, again on a ‘high, medium, low’ scale. This synthesised information from several sources:

Information from literature sources (identified in subsequent tasks)
Expertise of BRE staff that work in the retrofit sector
Discussions with customer-facing practitioners from NEF

Review of existing consumer energy advice tools

Existing consumer-facing energy advice tools were identified using web searches and the knowledge of the research team. CXC had additionally cited the UK Government household energy tool and EST Renewables selector for consideration. Criteria for identifying tools included:

A domestic/ housing focus
An aspect of interactivity/ customisation
Outputs similar in nature to those shown on EPCs (i.e. energy use, cost, recommendations)

A representative selection of tools were shortlisted for more detailed investigation. Criteria for shortlisting included:

Limited duplication of tools created by a single organisation, unless they offered something distinctly different from one another (e.g. there are many tools created with the same underpinning architecture/ calculation engine by EST)
Tools offering different levels of interactivity/ customisation
Inclusion of a commercial/ portfolio assessment tool (e.g. for social landlords)
Sufficient information available on tools to allow them to be tested and explored as part of the research

Interviews were held with DESNZ and Core Logic as product owners of the ‘Find ways to save energy’ and ‘EcoRefurb’ shortlisted tools, respectively.

Relevant EU research projects (into enhanced or dynamic EPCs) were also explored. However, since the resulting tools were generally intended for use by professionals supporting households, they were not comparable to the other user-centric tools explored. They were therefore not reported alongside the other existing tools but instead informed the wider evidence review on intended outcomes.

Assessment of data collection/ sourcing methods

Methods of data collection/ input were identified using web searches. This used key words on data input sources (taken from the task described above) linked to concepts of ‘collection, data entry, data history, automation, smart’. Further methods were populated based on the research team’s own experiences and expertise in data entry and surveying for SAP/ EPCs. Novel approaches being explored by Innovate UK projects were publicised during the ‘Net Zero Heat Open Day’^[7]. These were also reviewed for relevance.

Approaches were assigned as ‘manual’ versus ‘automated’ methods. It was also flagged if the data was already held on the EPC register or elsewhere linked to the creation of EPCs (e.g. the PCDB). The potential data sources/ collection methods were qualitatively appraised, based on the research team’s judgement, on a ‘high, medium, low’ scale against the following parameters:

The ease of data input for the user
Likely reliability of the information
Likelihood of an information source to be available short-mid term

Table 8 gives a practical illustration of the criteria for assigning the qualitative rating. The rankings were then assigned a score (High = 3, Medium = 2, Low = 1). These were summed to provide an overall current ‘readiness’ metric for each approach (scored out of 9).

Assessment parameter	High ease assessment criteria	Medium ease assessment criteria	Low ease assessment criteria
Ease of data input for user	Either automated, so minimal effort for user, or based on a few input parameters users are likely to readily understand.	Some tracking of household behaviours required, or users will need to seek out relatively simple data.	Difficult to identify or extract data correctly, or laborious to obtain.
Likely reliability of information	Based on real, household-specific data.	Based on real data but averaged or normalised in some way, or some other risk of error being introduced.	Accuracy of automated determination likely to be low.
Likelihood of availability short-mid term	Data currently readily available. Manual or PCDB input into (SAP) tool.	Data source exists in appropriate format, but collation effort/ processing will be required, which is likely to deter users.	Data would need to be appropriately formatted from source, SAP tools not currently capable of accepting import.

Table 8: Example criteria for assigning ‘high, medium, low’ qualitative ratings to
data collection/ sourcing methods.

Identifying evidence of intended outcomes

A desk-based evidence review sought information from academic articles and grey literature. A selection of search terms used are given in Table 9. These were expanded upon as other terms and concepts were identified in the reviewed sources. Feedback linked to the example energy advice tools identified in an earlier task was also sought. This was from online sources, though additional discussions were also held with tool developers where possible. DESNZ (as owners of the UK Government ‘Find ways to save energy’ tool) and Core Logic (EcoRefurb tool) provided direct feedback on their respective tools. Additionally, advisors from NEF provided general feedback from their experiences of directly supporting consumers with retrofit projects and from administering grants.

Research was widened to ‘relatable activities’ based on the research team’s experiences in the energy and retrofit sector. The scope for this was limited to households and housing, and at least energy-related behaviours, if not retrofit. This included researching linkages between interactive outputs and intended behavioural change on smart meters, retrofit plans and green finance (for retrofit).

Energy Performance Certificate	Interactive	Building passport
EPC	User experience	(Retrofit/ Renovation) plan
Retrofit	Personal(ised)	Roadmap
(Retrofit) support	Dynamic	Behaviour change
Renovation	Customised	Consumer attitude
Smart meter	Success	Tailored advice

Table 9: Initial search terms used for evidence review (not exhaustive)

How to cite this publication:

Weeks, C. and Sinclair, C. (2025) ‘Potential for interactive EPCs for Scotland’, ClimateXChange. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6008

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE–CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

High School Yards

Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

As set out in the SAP Technical Appendix document RdSAP 2012 v9.94 (BRE, 2019) ↑
RdSAP 2012 version 9.92: Occupancy Assessment version Mar 2014. (BRE, 2014) This supported the Green Deal funding initiative (2012-2015) to ensure the cost of retrofit repayments would not exceed energy bill savings. ↑
The GDOA tool underpins the UK Government Find Ways to Save Energy tool discussed in section 5.2.1. ↑
Note that others including EST, Core Logic and BRE also provide tools for this market. ↑
Note that much innovation and research is underway into obtaining ‘real’ data for fabric performance metrics for use in SAP. For example, there are projects funded by Innovate UK exploring monitoring solutions, U-value measurement and automated thermography for fabric elements. However, inputs relating to building fabric performance and dimensioning were beyond the scope for this study. ↑
Virtually all outputs were identified as having the same ease of customisation in section 5.1.3. Therefore, outputs with highest perceived importance to consumers have instead been selected as the focus here. ↑
UKRI Innovate UK Net Zero Heat Open Day – Innovate UK Business Connect. Held online 03/10/24. Recordings available. ↑

Research completed March 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5940

Executive Summary

Overview

The Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan update recognised the role that emissions removals will need to play in reaching net zero. Direct air capture (DAC) technologies extract CO₂ directly from the atmosphere at any location rather than at the point of emissions. CO₂ can then either be stored or used for a variety of applications, such as producing more sustainable fuels.

This study explores the costs and profitability of DAC and conducts an international comparison, through an evidence review, stakeholder engagement and modelling. We based the modelling on a 0.5 Mt DAC plant in Scotland operating in 2040, based on a Negative Emissions Technologies study by the Scottish Government. We modelled the two leading technologies, solid DAC and liquid DAC.

Key findings

Our modelling shows that demand for DAC CO₂ in Scotland by 2040 will be approximately 0.1-0.15 Mt, rising to 0.2-0.24 Mt in 2050. This is far below the demand levels needed to make a 0.5 Mt DAC plant profitable. Much of this projected demand is driven by the UK sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) mandate that sets out targets for synthetic aviation fuel (e-SAF) – see figure 1.1. This highlights the importance of government policy for creating a sustainable market. To create demand for a 0.5 Mt DAC plant in Scotland, either Scotland would need to provide a disproportionate amount (~40%) of the UK’s synthetic fuels (particularly e-SAF), DAC would need to supply the vast majority of the CO₂ used to make e-fuels, or much of the captured CO₂ would need to be sent to storage as CO₂ offsets. Please note that in this study, we assumed that only 50% of CO₂ for e-SAF would come from DAC. However, the Committee on Climate Change 7^th Carbon Budget (published after we conducted the study) assumed that all CO₂ required for e-SAF comes from DAC. Therefore, the projected DAC demands for e-fuels are roughly double the values shown here.

Figure 1.1: Projected CO₂ demands for e-SAF until 2050 in the UK (left) and Scotland (right). This demand would be met by a mixture of CO₂ sources, not solely DAC.

Experts highlighted market demand for CO₂ as a key limiting factor with the sector currently relying on voluntary carbon markets, which are volatile. Government policy will be central to setting out a market, or markets, for DAC CO₂ but is not yet fully developed. Planning restrictions, including timelines for approvals, land use concerns and uncertainties around final project specifications, create further hurdles. Other constraints include supply chain bottlenecks, though none of these are viewed as critical, and the immature state of CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure.

The cost of DAC is expected to drop by 30%-60% by 2040, depending on the technology. This will be driven by improved processes and materials, economies of scale and learning by doing. High gas prices in the UK mean that Scotland is not a particularly attractive location for liquid DAC, so advances in solid DAC will most likely be of greatest relevance. Industry experts highlighted the value of learning from current deployments such as understanding the impact of climate conditions, and how carbon capture materials perform and can be produced on an industrial scale. Integration with waste heat could have a significant impact on the cost of solid DAC to below £400/tCO₂. Both the e-fuels and green hydrogen production industries could be expected to grow on a similar timescale to DAC and would be obvious industries to co-locate with DAC due to their production of waste heat.

By 2040, the cost of solid DAC is projected to be around £560/tCO₂ and that of liquid DAC £340/tCO₂. The starting point for the liquid DAC cost ranges are much more uncertain as the technology has fewer deployments than solid DAC. If the UK Government Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) price was set in order to be a penalty for exceeding emission allowances, the cost of DAC plus CO₂ storage could be used effectively to set the ETS price. To be compatible with the e-SAF buyout price set in the UK SAF Mandate, DAC CO₂ would need to cost below £400/tCO₂. Our modelling suggests liquid DAC could reach this cost by 2040. Solid DAC has the potential to reach these costs if the plant has access to low-cost electricity (in the region of 6p/kWh), potentially aided by waste heat from other process such as green hydrogen or e-fuel production.

Despite the potential for DAC in Scotland to reach the costs compatible with profitable e-SAF production, e-SAF from DAC CO₂ is still projected to be one of the most expensive forms of e-SAF compared to e-SAF synthesised from other CO₂ sources. It would also be multiple times more expensive than current aviation fuels. The e-SAF buyout price in the SAF mandate has been set accounting for the cost of DAC CO₂. The analysis in this study indicates that DAC CO₂ would need to be in the region of £400/tCO₂ to be compatible with the buyout price in the SAF mandate. This is compatible with projected liquid DAC costs in 2040 or solid DAC when using a mixture of low-cost electricity and waste heat. The buyout price is set to ensure that it is more economical to buy DAC e-SAF than to not meet the e-SAF mandate requirements. However, if other forms of e-SAF can meet the demand, the market for DAC e-SAF could be much smaller than projected here.

This is amplified when considering DAC as a CO₂ feedstock for shipping e-fuels, where there are more options for decarbonised fuels and current fuel costs are lower than for aviation fuel. Even by 2050, shipping fuels are still projected to be up to 3 times more expensive than current shipping fuels (UMAS, 2023). A key future consideration with shipping e-fuels is whether ammonia comes through as a major fuel, which does not require a carbon feedstock such as DAC. If it does, ammonia could take up a lot of the shipping fuel market. However, significant safety concerns remain. If ammonia’s role is smaller than current projections, then the role of carbon-based e-fuels for shipping and of DAC would be larger.

Solid DAC would not be profitable for usage with the projected ETS price of £142/tCO₂ in 2040, but would require an ETS price of £250-£350 /tCO₂. To make DAC competitive with other sources of CO_2, the ETS price would need to make up the difference between DAC and CO₂ from other sources, currently around £100-£300/tCO₂ depending on the use case and market fluctuations. The ETS scheme is still considering how DAC CO₂ that is re-released is to be treated. DAC CO₂ may not earn credits, but for instance if fuels made from DAC were carbon neutral, that fuel would not use any carbon credits.

Energy prices account for up to 80% of the cost of DAC. Countries or regions with low and stable energy prices, such as Iceland and Texas, are generally more favourable for DAC deployment compared to regions like the UK, where energy costs remain relatively high. The most competitive locations for solid DAC are those with both low-cost and low-carbon electricity, especially when considering the levelised cost of removal (LCOR), as shown in Figure 1.3. The LCOR is the cost of removing 1 tonne of CO₂ from the atmosphere, accounting for any CO₂ released in the process of capturing the CO₂ e.g. CO₂ emissions from energy used for the process.

Low-carbon electricity from renewable energy (especially wind) is an advantage for Scotland. However, given the higher cost of electricity in the UK, Scotland and wider UK are less attractive locations for DAC than other countries with a similar portion of low-carbon energy, as illustrated in Figure 1.3. For liquid DAC, gas prices are a key influence as gas is used to generate the high temperatures needed for the liquid DAC process. However, gas prices in the UK are high, meaning that Scotland is not an attractive location for liquid DAC compared to other international locations.

Figure 1.2: The influence of electricity price on the LCOR of solid DAC across international locations.

Using green hydrogen for liquid DAC increases costs by 33%. These costs are comparable to solid DAC when solid DAC is paired with low-cost electricity or waste heat (i.e. the lower cost solid DAC scenarios).

Abbreviations Table & Glossary

CCC	Committee on Climate Change
CO₂	Carbon dioxide
CXC	ClimateXChange
BEIS	UK Government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (now DESNZ)
DAC	Direct air capture
DACCS	Direct air carbon capture and storage
DESNZ	UK Government Department for Energy Security and Net Zero
EMEC	European Marine Energy Centre
e-SAF	Synthetic sustainable aviation fuel
FOAK	First of a kind, in reference to DAC plants
LCOD	Levelised cost of DAC
LCOR	Levelised cost of removal
KOH	Potassium hydroxide
Mtoe	Megatonne oil equivalent
NET	Negative emissions technologies
NOAK	N^th of a kind, in reference to DAC plants
ONS	Office for National Statistics
PtL	Power to liquid fuels
SAF	Sustainable aviation fuel
s-DAC, l-DAC	Solid DAC, liquid DAC
tCO2	Tonnes of CO₂

Absorption	The dissolution of atoms, ions or molecules into another material. In liquid DAC, the CO₂ from air is absorbed into a carbon capture liquid.
Absorbent	The substance which has absorbed the atoms, ions or molecules. The carbon-capture liquid used in liquid DAC is an absorbent.
Adsorption	The adhesion of atoms, ions or molecules from a gas or liquid onto the surface of a solid material (as opposed to being absorbed into the material). In solid DAC, the CO₂ from the air is adsorbed onto the surface of a solid carbon-capture material.
Adsorbate	The substance which has adsorbed the atoms, ions or molecules onto the surface. The solid carbon-capture material used in solid DAC is an adsorbate.
Contactor	The element of machinery in a DAC plant that brings the air containing CO₂ in contact with the carbon-capture material.
Load profile	The variation in energy demand over time. A flat load profile would indicate a consistent demand across all hours of the year; load profiles tend to fluctuate with periods of higher and lower demand.
LCOD	The cost of capturing one tonne of CO₂ a DAC system. The LCOD reflects the cost of capturing one tonne of CO₂ irrespective of any CO₂ generated to facilitate the process e.g. for energy use.
LCOR	The cost of removing one tonne of CO₂ from the atmosphere accounting for any CO₂ released in the process, e.g. from energy use. If all the energy used is zero-carbon, the LCOD and LCOR will be the same.

Introduction

This study explores the cost and profitability of direct air capture (DAC) technology in Scotland. The findings from this report will feed into the evidence base for the Scottish Government on DAC technology. The focus of this study is on the capture and utilisation of CO₂, as opposed to CO₂ storage.

Aims

The key aims of this project were to:

Review the main research and development (R&D) trends in DAC: high activity research areas, the likelihood of success and the impact if successful
Understand key limiting factors in DAC deployment and scale up
Provide projections for the likely cost of DAC in Scotland and the key sensitivities
Understand how various scenarios, such as low-cost electricity and waste heat, would influence DAC costs
Understand how Scotland compares to other countries as a location for DAC
Quantify potential markets for DAC, both established and emerging, the size of those markets and potential for profitability.

Overview

The modelling in this study is based on a 0.5 Mt DAC plant, with both solid DAC and liquid DAC studied at this capacity. This 0.5 Mt capacity has come from the Negative Emissions Technologies study by the Scottish Government based on the Storegga and Carbon Engineering project, which was proposed to be built in the late 2020s with assumed minimum capture rate of 0.5 MtCO₂ (Scottish Government, 2023).

The information in this study brings together academic literature with cost modelling alongside insight from interviews with DAC experts in industry and academia. It is important to note that the values in this study are projections based on best available data for a developing technology so are subject to significant uncertainty. Where possible, indications are given as to the main factors impacting the values provided and how changes to some of the assumptions would affect them.

Throughout this study, two key terms are used: levelised cost of DAC (LCOD) and levelised cost of removal (LCOR). The LCOD is the cost of capturing one tonne of CO₂ from the air, quoted in terms of £/tCO₂; the LCOR is the cost of removing one tonne of CO₂ from the atmosphere, accounting for any CO₂ released in the process of capturing the CO₂ e.g. CO₂ emissions from energy used for the process. If zero carbon energy were used, the LCOD and the LCOR would be equal. LCOD is the important metric for comparing DAC costs from a purely economical point of view, however, carbon credits will be assigned based on the carbon removed such that LCOR is still a key economic metric as well being important from a carbon reduction perspective.

Overview of DAC Technology

The carbon capture process

The process of capturing CO₂ directly from the air has three generic phases (Third Derivative, 2021):

Drawing air containing CO₂ at atmospheric concentration of around 400 ppm into the system and bringing it into contact with a carbon-capture material
Reaction of CO₂with the carbon-capture material, usually either a liquid absorbent or a solid adsorbent
Releasing the CO₂from the capture material to be used or stored, and regenerating the capture material to begin the cycle again

DAC technology

DAC technology has two main types: solid DAC and liquid DAC. The solid and liquid refers to the materials that are used to capture the carbon. In liquid DAC, the CO₂is absorbed into a liquid solution of potassium hydroxide or another base; this is the method used by the DAC plant developer Carbon Engineering, a partner in the planned Acorn DAC facility at Peterhead. In solid DAC, the method used by the businesses Climeworks and Global Thermostat, solid materials are used with the CO₂adsorbed (binding) to the material surface.

Both processes use heat to release the CO₂and regenerate the capture material, but liquid DAC needs much higher temperatures to do so, in the region of 900°C compared to solid DAC around 100°C (Sodiq, 2022). The high temperatures needed for liquid DAC means natural gas is currently used as part of the process, with the CO₂from the gas burned being captured in the process. This is the method used by Carbon Engineering.

More detail is provided on each of these methods in Appendix A.

Research and Development Trends

DAC is an active area of research both in industry and in academia. Academic research is largely focussed on materials and process improvement, such as sorbents and solvents that capture CO₂more quickly, more effectively and more selectively than those currently used, as well as materials that can last longer through more cycles. R&D in industry works on these same problems but also has a major focus on learning from current deployments, improving the quality of materials, and understanding the impacts of local conditions on processes and equipment. Several DAC companies are working on new processes. One process of particular interest in the UK would be electrochemical DAC that runs purely off electricity (as opposed to requiring heat), advantageous for the ability to run directly on renewable electricity. An overview of the main R&D trends in DAC is provided in Table 5.1 with a mapping of innovation areas shown in Figure 5.1. This overview is based on an initial literature review of DAC research that was then discussed with industry experts to capture their opinions and insights. A more detailed version of Figure 5.1 and more detail on each of the research areas in DAC is provided in Appendix B.

Table 5.1: Overview of research and development trends in DAC.

Area		Level of research activity	Impact on cost successful	Likelihood of success
Air contactors	Geometry	Medium	Medium	High
Air contactors	Passive air contactors	High	High	Low
Solid DAC sorbents	Amine-functionalised sorbents	High	Medium to low	Medium to low
Solid DAC sorbents	Zeolites	Medium	Medium to low	Medium to low
Solid DAC sorbents	MOFs	High	Medium to low	Medium to low
Solid DAC sorbents	Solid alkali carbonates	High	Medium to low	Medium to low
Solid DAC sorbents	Silica gel	High	Medium to low	Medium to low
Solid DAC sorbents	Calcium ambient weathering	High	Medium to low	Medium to low
Solid DAC sorbents	AI and machine learning for better sorbent designs	High	Medium to high	High
Liquid DAC sorbents	Alternative liquid sorbents: alkoamines, alkylamines, and ionic liquids	Medium	Medium to low	Medium to low
Regeneration process	Crystallisation	Low	Difficult to determine	Difficult to determine
Regeneration process	Electrochemical	High	High	Low
Regeneration process	Thermal regeneration	Medium	High	Medium
Regeneration process	Calcination	Medium	High	Medium
Integration with waste heat	Sources	Medium but increasing	Medium	Medium
Integration with waste heat	Process optimisation	Medium	Low	Low
Integration with renewable energy	Grid carbon factors, curtailment and grid balancing	High	Medium	High
Integration with renewable energy	Tidal power	Low	Difficult to determine	Difficult to determine
Integration with renewable energy	Energy storage	Medium	Medium	High
Scaling up	Manufacturability	Low	High	High
Scaling up	Scalability	Low	High	High
Scaling up	Constructability	Low	High	High
Learning from deployment	Impact of climate and local conditions	High	High	High
Learning from deployment	Impact of climate	High	Difficult to determine	Difficult to determine
Learning from deployment	Co-benefits, reducing particulate matter, reducing other local pollutants	Medium, but increasing	Difficult to determine	Difficult to determine

Figure 5.1: Research and development areas in DAC.

Limiting factors for DAC deployment

The key limiting factors that came out in discussion with expert interviewees were cost and supply of green energy, plus demand for DAC through a stable, long-term market. Requirements on industries to use captured carbon, such as the UK SAF mandate, would provide market confidence, encouraging investment and enabling scale up. An overview of limiting factors is provided in the sections below with more detailed information provided in Appendix C.

Energy demand and cost

The high energy demands for DAC are expected to limit scale up, due to high energy costs and associated infrastructure constraints, such as a large connection to the electricity grid. A 0.5 Mt DAC plant would require around 1 TWh of energy, 20% electricity and 80% thermal energy. If the heat was supplied by heat pumps, that value could be brought to around 0.6 TWh of electricity per year. Assuming a flat load profile (i.e. the electricity demand is flat instead of varying across the day, 0.6 TWh would be around 68 MW in terms of connection capacity, in line with other large industrial sites or data centres.

Carbon intensity of electricity and fuel

The carbon intensity of electricity has a significant impact on the levelised cost of removal (LCOR) as the more carbon intense the electricity is, the more of the captured carbon is assigned to offsetting the source electricity. The grid carbon intensity does not directly affect the cost of capturing CO₂, the levelised cost of DAC (LCOD), but does affect the net CO₂ removal and the LCOR. The distinction between these two becomes important if DAC is being considered from a CO₂ removal point of view or simply as CO₂as a product.

The carbon intensity of the UK electricity grid is expected to fall from 213 kgCO₂/MWhe in 2019 to 6 kgCO₂/MWhe in 2040. This has the effect of decreasing the LCOR by 28%.

Demand for CO₂

The main market for DAC is currently voluntary carbon offsetting, which is a purely voluntary market without security of demand.^[1]

The EU and UK SAF mandates offer major long-term markets for DAC, with both mandates stating an intention for a portion of SAF to come from DAC over time. These potential markets are explored in detail in section 9. Beyond e-fuels, other major emerging markets are construction materials and CO₂as a chemical feedstock. Existing CO₂markets such as the food and drinks industry are also of interest but would largely rely on companies looking to advertise their green credentials to offer a market for DAC.

Policy and government procurement were seen as major drivers here. Current carbon price forecast and emission penalties are not currently high enough to drive demand for DAC.

Planning restrictions

A 0.5 Mt DAC plant would be considered a major development under Scottish planning law, the average planning time for major development projects in Scotland in 2023/24 ranged widely from 22 weeks for projects with processing agreements compared to 53 weeks for those without (Scottish Government, 2024). Very roughly, delays impact project costs by 1%-2% per month, but the Scottish Government was praised in some of the engagements within this study for being dynamic and working with organisations to progress projects.

Geographical requirements

The main geographical requirements for DAC are to be near or connected to low cost, low carbon electricity with a high load factor and near transport, storage or usage of CO2.

The impact of climate on DAC is still not fully understood. Modelling indicates that cooler, drier climates could be techno-economically favourable for solid DAC, while warm and humid climates could be favourable for liquid DAC (Sendi, 2022). The UK is considered a cool and humid climate, which slightly reduces the productivity (i.e. how effectively the CO2 is captured) due to competition with water for adsorption to the surface. This increases energy requirements, but the overall impact is less than 10% in terms of levelised cost of DAC compared to a cold and dry climate. This is a much smaller impact than many other factors and technologies/materials could be optimised for different climates.

Transport and storage

The availability of CO2 transport and storage facilities is expected to be a major limiting factor, especially in the short term. The Storegga facility under the North Sea, planned as the first major CO2 storage site in Scotland, was due to be operational mid-2020s but progress appears to be stalled. Placing DAC sites near utilisation sites will minimise transport and storage requirements, the location flexibility of DAC is considered a major advantage.

Supply chain requirements

The supply chain will need to scale up. There are no major blockers foreseen but a bottleneck in the supply chain can be a risk to scale up. The only material that DAC could use a significant portion of supply and therefore the most likely to cause a bottleneck in the system are amine-based sorbents for solid DAC, currently mainly used in smaller quantities in the pharmaceutical industry.

Commercial sensitivity and maturity

Commercial sensitivity was seen to be a limiting factor in the scale up phase and optimising DAC processes, especially when optimising alongside other technologies like green hydrogen and e-fuel production. The European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC) was noted as an advantage in Scotland as they are very open to partnerships, knowledge sharing and demonstration projects.

Cost of DAC

Reference scenario

This study developed a reference scenario which aligns with ‘Pathway 3’ of the Scottish Government’s ‘Negative emissions technologies (NETS): Feasibility Study’ (Scottish Government, 2023). This pathway assumes that policies and mechanisms are implemented by the UK and Scottish Government which result in high carbon capture and NETS deployment. The 0.5 Mt capacity for the reference scenario has come from the NETs study based on the Storegga and Carbon Engineering project, which was proposed to be built in the late 2020s with assumed minimum capture rate of 0.5 MtCO₂. This project was intended to be operational by the mid-2020s but is currently stalled.

Reflecting that current DAC deployment plans in Scotland are behind what was set out in the NETs study, the reference scenario in this study has been run for year 2040, in recognition that we are unlikely to see substantial deployment of DAC in Scotland in the short term. Our model accounts for reducing costs of DAC over time, incorporating the impacts of ‘learning by deployment’ by assuming a ‘learning rate’ on CAPEX, energy requirements and solid adsorbent cost.

Our modelling approach follows that of Young et al. (Young, 2023) with costs converted from USD to GBP using a ratio of 0.8 with key values set out in Table 7.1 and more detail given in Appendix D. A key assumption for year 2040 is the level of global deployment assumed for this year. This, along with the learning rate, determines the level of cost reduction from the ‘First-of-a-Kind’ (FOAK) plant. The 2040 deployment assumption is 15 Mt combined for both solid DAC and liquid DAC which is based on a global technology diffusion rate (i.e. how quickly the deployment capacity increases each year) of 25%. This value is high, above the average technology diffusions rates but still results in DAC deployment values below those projected elsewhere, reflecting an ambitious but realistic scenario.

The modelling of process energy requirements assumes the cumulative capacity of DAC deployed up to 2040 has improved process efficiency, reducing the energy requirements from a first-of-a-kind (FOAK) plant to an Nth-of-a-kind (NOAK) plant. The FOAK energy estimates for solid DAC are based on operational data from the Climeworks Orca plant (4 kt), while liquid DAC is based on academic literature and modelling (Keith, 2018).

Table 7.1 summarises the energy requirements of the solid and liquid DAC processes. The magnitude and split of electricity vs thermal energy across the two technologies is similar, but the liquid technology requires high-grade heat (circa 900^oC), whereas the solid technology requires lower grade heat (circa 100^oC) and therefore could be supplied by a heat pump rather than combustion of a gas. Assuming a COP of 2, the heat pump would use 0.75 MWh of electricity to produce the required 1.5 MWh_th of thermal energy.

While a heat pump was chosen as the solid DAC heat source other sources of heat such as natural gas or hydrogen may also be used. Likewise for liquid DAC process natural gas was selected as the heating fuel with electricity supplied by the national grid but the process could be configured to generate electricity from natural gas in a combined-cycle-gas-turbine or substitute natural gas entirely for hydrogen or electricity. Alternative heat sources are explored further in section 7.2.4.

Table 7.1: Key inputs for the solid and liquid DAC processes built in 2040

Process	Solid DAC	Liquid DAC
Electricity use, MWh/tCO₂	0.27	0.37
Thermal energy use, MWh/tCO₂	1.5 (0.75 MWh electricity assuming COP = 2)	1.46
Thermal energy source	Heat Pump	Natural Gas
Electricity price, £/MWh	187 (Climatescope, 2024)
Natural gas price, £/MWh	49 (DESNZ, 2024)
CAPEX, £/tCO2 capacity	109	65
Lifetime of plant, years	20	25
Capacity factor	88%	90%

Estimating the cost of DAC

The values in the cost modelling and associated sensitivities are presented as two different metrics: the levelised cost of DAC (LCOD) and the levelised cost of removal (LCOR). The LCOD is the cost to remove a certain amount of CO₂ from the air, the LCOR takes account of the emissions associated with the energy used to power the DAC plant e.g. from electricity generation or the burning of natural gas. The figures presented in this section primarily show the LCOD as this is the most relevant metric when considering costs and markets of DAC CO₂; the LCOR is also marked on the figures to provide additional insight.

A breakdown of the contributing costs to the overall LCOD of solid and liquid DAC is shown in Figure 7.1. The effect of ‘learning rate’ and decarbonisation of the electricity grid is highlighted, with significant cost reductions from the estimated costs of a FOAK plant and a plant built in 2040. In 2040, this model assumes a combined global deployment of solid and liquid DAC of 15 Mt, split evenly between solid DAC and liquid DAC; this means that the learning rates applied to each technology are equivalent to 7.5 Mt of global deployment.

For solid DAC, the levelised cost is estimated to decrease by 75% from £2,253/tCO₂ to £557/tCO₂, while liquid DAC decreases by 25% from £453/tCO₂ to £337/tCO₂. The LCOR (shown as diamonds in Figure 7.1) is especially high for a solid DAC FOAK plant and changes significantly by 2040 as the UK electricity grid decarbonises from 213 gCO₂/kWh to 6 gCO₂/kWh.

The largest contributor to overall cost is variable OPEX, consisting of energy, water and sorbent replacement costs. Variable OPEX is significantly higher for solid DAC due to the use of electricity to supply process heat. Electricity is 3.8 times more expensive than natural gas producing heat and 1.8 times more expensive than via a heat pump (COP = 2) than a calciner used in the liquid DAC process. However, using a heat pump enables the use of zero/low carbon electricity. If natural gas were to be used instead in the solid-DAC process the combustion of the fuel would release CO₂ and increase the cost of DAC per tonne of CO₂ captured.

Natural gas is required in the liquid DAC process due to the high temperature requirements, in this case the emissions from natural gas emissions are captured within the DAC process. The use of alternative sources of heat is discussed further in section 7.2.4.

CAPEX costs were also higher for the solid DAC process (£109/tCO₂) compared to liquid DAC (£65/tCO₂). Since financing and fixed OPEX are fixed percentages of the CAPEX cost, these two are higher in the solid process.

Figure 7.1: Levelised cost for solid DAC and liquid DAC, showing breakdown by cost component.

Sensitivity analysis

A one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis was completed for the reference scenario, where a 20% increase or reduction was applied to a variable, holding all others constant, to see the impact on LCOR. Additional sensitivities were completed to assess the impact of changing energy price and waste heat usage by 50% and 100%. The results are shown in Figure 7.2, with negative values representing a reduction in cost. Waste heat costs are difficult to estimate and are usually process specific; for this analysis waste heat is assumed to be zero cost to represent the maximum potential benefit. The analysis highlighted that solid DAC was most affected by the operational capacity factor, see Figure 7.2 below.

Changes in the price of electricity and the proportion of heat from waste sources had a larger impact on the LCOD of solid DAC than liquid DAC, as solid DAC has nearly double the energy cost than liquid DAC per tonne. A 100% change in the price of electricity (zero cost or doubling the cost) impacts the overall cost of solid DAC by 46% and liquid DAC by 23%. The use of waste heat is also more impactful in the solid process, a similar 100% change reduces the overall cost of solid DAC by 32% and liquid DAC by 23%. It is also unlikely waste heat will be able to replace a significant proportion of liquid DAC heating simply due to the very high temperatures required for the liquid DAC regeneration process. A change in capex cost was slightly more significant in liquid DAC since capex made up a higher proportion of the total cost; changing the CAPEX cost by 20% impacts the solid DAC process by 7% and the liquid DAC process 8%.

Both electricity costs and waste heat utilisation were selected for a further, more detailed sensitivity analysis not only because they are major influencing factors, but because accessing those savings is realistic for a DAC plant in Scotland.

Figure 7.2: The sensitivity of levelised cost of DAC to changes in variables

Electricity price

In section 7.2.1 the price of electricity has been highlighted as the most significant factor affecting the cost of both solid and liquid DAC. A number of possible scenarios were modelled to assess the effect of electricity price on LCOD. These scenarios include:

Reference scenario price of grid electricity £187/MWh (Climatescope, 2024)
2040 Green Book estimate for electricity price £111/MWh (DESNZ, 2024)
Price of electricity from onshore wind under a contract for difference tariff of £73/MWh (DESNZ, 2023)
No cost renewables £0/MWh

As shown in Figure 7.3, because the solid DAC process uses electricity for heating, changes in electricity prices have a significant impact on the cost of solid DAC. The maximum achievable reduction in LCOD is 46% for solid DAC to £304/tCO₂ and 23% for liquid DAC to £260/tCO₂, however this relies on zero-cost electricity from a renewable energy source such as wind or solar.

More plausible electricity pricing scenarios such as private wire wind or the 2040 Green Book also significantly improve the LCOD of solid DAC and reduce the cost difference between solid and liquid DAC. By using electricity from onshore wind with a typical feed-in-tariff cost of £73/MWh there is the potential to reduce the overall cost of DAC by 28% and 14% for the solid and liquid processes respectively. However, this may result in longer periods of downtime due to low wind speeds. As shown in Figure 7.2, the LCOD is highly sensitive to the capacity factor and periods of downtime should be avoided.

Using the Green Book estimate for the price of electricity in 2040 has a smaller impact on the overall LCOD, reducing the solid and liquid process costs by 19% and 9%, respectively.^[2]

Figure 7.3: The effect of electricity price on the LCOD of solid and liquid DAC.

Carbon intensity of electricity

The carbon intensity of the fuel used for DAC has no direct impact on the cost of DAC and therefore has no direct impact on the LCOD; however, it does impact the LCOR, i.e. the net cost of removing one tonne of CO₂ from the atmosphere. The LCOR calculation includes the carbon emissions associated with energy use, the impact of which is shown in Figure 7.4. Using a 2024 grid carbon intensity which averaged 213 gCO₂/kWh has an estimated cost of £775/tCO₂. If the carbon intensity of the electricity grid follows DESNZ green book projections and falls to 6 gCO₂/kWh in 2040 (DESNZ, 2024), this would reduce the cost of solid DAC by 28% and liquid DAC by 8%. The decarbonisation of the electricity grid can therefore be considered a necessity for Scotland to be a suitable location for solid DAC when compared to other global locations. Liquid DAC is less sensitive to the carbon intensity of electricity as it uses natural gas for heat process requirements. However, the associated combustion emissions must be successfully captured in the process and the upstream fugitive emissions of natural gas extraction must be considered.^[3]

Figure 7.4: The effect of electricity grid carbon emissions on the LCOR of solid and liquid DAC.

Heat source and integration of waste heat

The LCOR can be significantly impacted by the energy vector used to provide process heating, shown in Figure 7.5 . Electricity, natural gas and hydrogen were considered for each process as well as the utilisation of waste heat.

In the reference scenario, the solid DAC process uses a heat pump to provide the target temperature of around 100°C. Using natural gas for solid DAC heating instead of electricity increases LCOR because of the emission released during combustion. While using green hydrogen does not release any further emissions during combustion, the higher cost of hydrogen compared to natural gas increases the LCOR.

In the liquid DAC process, emissions released from natural gas combustion are captured as part of the process. Natural gas may be replaced with hydrogen as a low-carbon alternative, although the higher cost of hydrogen outweighs the lower carbon emissions and increases LCOR overall.

The utilisation of waste heat is beneficial for both the producer and user of the heat. Waste heat can often be purchased at low cost and is considered as low or zero carbon. Using waste heat would reduce the amount of electricity or natural gas needed for heating, lowering fuel costs and avoid emissions from fuel combustion or electricity generation. However, the extent waste heat can be utilised is limited by the temperature of the source. Since Liquid DAC requires high temperature heating, the proportion of heat that can be supplied from waste heat is significantly lower than solid DAC. For each waste heat source discussed, further details related to calculations and size of plant needed to provide the waste heat are provided in Appendix H.

The viability of using waste heat from sources such as manufacturing processes, energy facilities, or data centres depends on the individual site and process. Both the cost and temperature of heat available influence the potential benefit of reducing the LCOR. The price of heat is subject to commercial negotiations and difficult to estimate. A no-cost waste heat source which can provide 100% of process heat has been modelled to show the maximum theoretical benefit to the solid DAC and liquid DAC processes.

One potential supplier of waste heat is the production of hydrogen via electrolysis. This is most impactful in solid DAC since the 80°C heat from hydrogen production can provide a significant proportion of the process’ thermal energy requirements, reducing the overall LCOD by 26%. There is limited impact on the liquid DAC process due to the high-temperature requirements of around 850°C (Sodiq, 2022). Using waste heat to provide heating up to 70°C and natural gas up to the final temperature of 850°C has a limited impact, only reducing LCOR by 2%.

E-fuel production is another potential source of waste heat. The E-fuel process has an operating temperature ranging from 200°C-240°C (Speight, 2016). This could provide the entire thermal requirement of the solid DAC process, reducing LCOR by 32% (Speight, 2016). As with waste heat from hydrogen, waste heat from e-fuel production can only supply a small proportion of the overall thermal energy of liquid DAC, reducing overall LCOR by 6%.

Figure 7.5: The effect of fuel type on the cost of solid and liquid DAC

Financing costs

An additional sensitivity was performed to understand the impact of financing costs on the cost of DAC. The reference scenario in this study uses financing costs of 3.5%, in line with social discounting rates (DESNZ, 2024).The values in Figure 7.6 show the impact of financing rates at more commercial levels of 10% referred to as the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) (UK Government, 2021). In this sensitivity, the cost of both solid and liquid DAC is increased significantly by the increase in required rates of return on capex investments. The cost of solid DAC is affected more than liquid DAC, with the LCOD of solid DAC increasing from £557/tCO₂ to £642/tCO₂, an increase of 15%; liquid DAC increases from £337/tCO₂ to £404/tCO₂, an increase of 20%. This sensitivity illustrates how the cost of DAC will depend heavily on how the initial capex is funded.

Figure 7.6: The effect of financing rates on the cost of solid and liquid DAC.

Additional costs

Purification

The DAC techniques detailed in this report have been developed with storage as a key market, which requires high levels of purity to minimise how much non-CO₂ is stored. Climeworks reports minimum CO₂ concentrations of 95% although concentrations of 99.9% are discussed in literature (Climeworks, 2022; Ozkan, 2021). These very high concentrations may require additional purification steps but for the purposes of this study, purification costs are assumed to be within the overall DAC costs presented here and additional costs are not added in.

For CO₂ markets, the type of impurities will be important especially for applications within the food and drinks industry. Most of the ‘impurities’ in DAC CO₂ are nitrogen and oxygen left over from the air; more problematic impurities would be from the DAC process such as amines from the sorbents. These impurities would have an impact on the markets for DAC, most notably for food and drink.

Transport

A recent CXC report “Onshore and inshore storage of carbon dioxide” discussed CO₂ transport costs based on literature and discussion with industry, coming to a value of £20-£24/tCO₂ for a 100-mile round trip (ClimateXChange, 2024). These values would be a significant portion of CO₂ costs when CO₂ costs are in the region of £50-£100/tCO_2. Estimated DAC costs are in the region of hundreds of pounds per tonne, so transport costs are less influential. Transport costs would become significant again if carbon pricing was used to bring DAC costs down.

Profit

Profitability information for UK companies is published by the Office for National Statistics with an average for private, non-financial companies consistently around 10% (Office for National Statistics, 2024). It could be argued that DAC would need a higher profit margin as it is a new technology and carries a higher risk, or that finance may be offered to ‘green’ projects at a lower rate by investors seeking environmentally friendly investments. The UK SAF mandate buyout price includes a 20% price premium above expected e-SAF production costs, reflecting that the market is early-stage.

The average UK value of 10% is used to assess profitability in this study. With the cost of capture for DAC in 2040 projected to be in the region of £550/tCO₂, the profit margin would be around £55/tCO₂ bringing the cost of DAC in the market just over £600/tCO₂.

International Comparison

To understand Scotland’s potential for large-scale DAC deployment, the cost to capture carbon in Scotland has been compared against the other countries. Electricity costs, natural gas costs and labour costs have been changed for each country to reflect building DAC plants internationally. Further details are provided in Appendix F.

It is difficult to estimate the future cost of DAC in other countries due to the limited amount of data publicly available on future costs and carbon emissions i.e. there is not a UK Green Book equivalent for all countries. However, current values for energy costs and carbon intensities are available therefore the cost of DAC in different countries in this section has been compared using the same inputs as in the reference scenario (e.g. learning rates have been applied out to 2040, 15 Mt of global DAC deployment is assumed) but the electricity cost and carbon scenarios are from 2024 data. This mix of projected and current data means that the values themselves are likely to change over time but we would expect the trends to remain similar, i.e. countries that countries with very low carbon electricity now will continue to do so, countries with high carbon electricity will take longer to decarbonise their electricity systems.

International comparison for solid DAC

Figure 8.1 presents an estimation of the LCOR for solid DAC in 2024 for various countries. Two points are shown for the UK as a whole: one showing where the UK would sit in 2024 as a comparison against other countries 2024 data, and one showing where the UK would sit in 2040 when the electricity grid has largely decarbonised.

The most competitive locations for solid DAC are those with both low-cost and low-carbon electricity. Iceland and Canada have either significant geothermal or hydro-electric resources, producing electricity with a cost below £100/MWh and carbon intensity below 80 gCO₂/kWh. As a result, these locations have the lowest estimated LCOR ranging between £381/tCO₂ and £434/tCO₂. Whereas locations with high electricity grid carbon intensity like Oman and Texas have some of the lowest electricity costs but the highest LCORs. In terms of DAC capturing and using CO₂, it can be argued that it is the LCOD that is important, purely the cost of capturing the CO₂; however, where DAC is being used for a climate benefit (even if the CO₂ is to be used), it is the LCOR that is relevant.

Scotland has a lower LCOR than five of the thirteen locations assessed. With a relatively high electricity price, the UK is generally only competitive against locations with significantly higher carbon intensity. The focus on LCOR means that Scotland would be a more attractive location for solid DAC than Oman or Australia, despite higher electricity costs. This picture could change over time, for example if the grid in Australia rapidly decarbonised.

The dashed lines in Figure 8.1 show the impact of the cost of electricity in the UK on the LCOR to illustrate how changes in electricity costs would affect the relative competitiveness of DAC in the UK. These lines show that in order for Scotland to become competitive with Iceland, electricity prices would need to be around a quarter of what they are now, more in the region of £40/MWh, a relatively similar picture for the UK as a whole in 2050 once the grid has largely decarbonised.

Figure 8.1: The influence of electricity price on the LCOR of solid DAC across international locations.

International comparison for liquid DAC

The cost of liquid DAC for the same selected locations is shown in Figure 8.2. This analysis shows that countries that are net exporters of gas e.g. Norway, Oman and Texas are estimated to have the lowest LCORs. The UK’s high gas prices result in the highest LCOR out of the locations assessed at £368/tCO₂. The reliance on gas to supply heat for the regeneration process means that the carbon intensity of the electricity supply is far less influential for liquid DAC than it was for solid DAC, such that energy costs (particularly gas costs) dominate the trends more than carbon intensities.

Varying electricity prices, as shown in Figure 8.2, has less impact on the LCOR of liquid DAC in the UK than it did on solid DAC as electricity prices make up a smaller portion of the total cost of liquid DAC. As a result, Scotland is not as cost effective as other locations for the deployment of liquid DAC as described in the reference scenario. This is in line with the rule of thumb from Carbon Engineering that the most attractive countries for liquid DAC are those counties that are net exporters of gas.

Figure 8.2: The influence of electricity price on the LCOR of liquid DAC across international locations.

Market opportunities and potential profitability

To understand how profitable DAC could be in Scotland, various potential markets have been assessed. This section focuses on industrial utilisation of CO₂that might be scalable and viable in Scotland: what the major demand markets are, potential growth in those markets and the potential role for DAC.

This section examines the potential markets for DAC CO₂ within Scotland and the UK. A number of markets are considered, each considered in terms of:

the size of the current market
potential growth in demand
potential competitiveness of DAC CO₂ in the market
potential market size for DAC CO₂
potential for DAC CO₂ to be profitable in the market.

The analysis in each section is put in context of demand relative to a 0.5 Mt DAC plant where all of the captured CO₂ is utilised as opposed to stored. In reality, a DAC plant may supply CO₂ for both use and storage. The costs discussed in this section are based on the reference scenario and the sensitivity analysis in 7.1.

Overview of CO₂ markets

The CO₂ market is split into direct uses of CO₂ (e.g. carbonating drinks) and indirect uses (e.g. as a chemical feedstock). The UK consumes around 0.6 Mt of CO₂ per year (Food & Drink Federation, 2019). The key markets for CO₂ in the UK are:

Food & drink industry
Fire suppression and extinguishers
Medical uses
Industrial and other uses.

Additionally, horticulture uses a significant amount of CO₂ to boost crop yield within greenhouses, but this CO₂ is generally produced as a by-product of gas-powered heating systems onsite. The annual horticultural CO₂demand in the UK in 2030 is estimated to range from 108–218 ktCO₂, around 20%-35% of current UK demand but this will be very much dominated by demand in England (Ecofys, 2017).^[4] As heat production is moved from natural gas to electrification, alternative sources of CO₂ will be needed, offering an additional CO₂ market. In terms of DAC, Climeworks have previously reported sales to greenhouses but it is difficult to see a major CO₂ market here due the current CO₂ used being a by-product of onsite heat generation and horticulture is not a sector with large profit margins that could absorb significant additional costs (Climeworks, 2015).

The indirect CO₂ market is more difficult find information on, and therefore to quantify, but CO₂ is used as a chemical feedstock for:

Fertiliser industry
Polymers and resins
Synthetic hydrocarbons
Other chemical intermediates.

The chemical market was not studied in this report due to this lack of information but recent reports have indicated that there could be demand for CO₂ in the UK chemical industry of 0.45 Mt by 2040, increasing to 2.3 Mt by 2050 (Innovate UK, 2024).

The current cost of CO₂

The cost of CO₂ has been very volatile in recent years largely due to major fluctuations in global fossil fuel prices. During the peak high of energy prices in 2022, CO₂ prices reached £2,000/tCO₂ even £3,000/tCO₂. These prices had a major impact on availability and production of products like meat and carbonated drinks in the UK (Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, 2022). In conversations with expert interviewees as part of this study, current costs in 2024 between £100/tCO₂ – £900/tCO₂ were discussed. These costs still represent a broad range but were generally concentrated at the low end, in the region of £100-£300/tCO₂. The cost of CO₂ depends heavily on the requirements of the use case: the purity level both in terms of CO₂ concentration and the type and concentration of impurities. However, these values provide a comparison range for CO₂ from DAC.

Biogenic CO₂ is seen as a key future source of CO₂ and is generally currently sold for around £100/tCO₂or a little lower. However, there is a limited supply of biogenic CO₂, which is a key issue for scaling up applications like e-fuels. The NETs study states that the total biogenic CO₂currently available from existing sites in Scotland is around 3.3 MtCO₂/year with a future maximum of 5.2 MtCO₂/year by 2032 (Scottish Government, 2023).

Food and beverage industries

CO₂is widely used in food and beverage industries, the primary uses are carbonated drinks, chilling and packaging, transporting food and stunning animals. As other CO₂ sources are reduced, all these markets will need alternative sources of CO₂ but some are more suited to DAC than others. DAC CO₂ is cleaner than combustion sources, making it more attractive for packaging and carbonated drinks. Additionally, products using DAC CO₂ could carry a green premium in the market.

The beverage industry is of particular interest for DAC because of the size of the market and it is possible to see how a product could benefit from being marketed as lower carbon. Packaging and stunning of animals is likely to move to green sources of CO₂ only as required to by law, via organisational targets or due to lack of supply; a green premium for DAC CO₂ is hard to envisage for these sectors. The food and beverage industry is by far the largest user of CO₂in the UK, accounting for around 60% of the UK’s CO₂demand, roughly 360 ktCO₂/year (Food & Drink Federation, 2019). The growing focus on sustainable CO₂sources has brought DAC into consideration, with Coca Cola already investing in UK DAC company Airhive to supply CO₂ to one of its drinks production sites via an on-site DAC plant (AP Ventures, 2024).

Future CO₂ markets in the UK for DAC

The consensus within literature on future markets for CO₂-derived products is that the market size is difficult to predict. However, three key factors were identified for assessing future markets:

Scalability
Competitiveness
Climate benefit.

The climate benefit of a market influences the degree of interest to governments and other organisations seeking to reduce climate impacts.

There are also a number of market segments that consistently appear in literature on using and sequestering CO₂ from DAC in the future:

E-fuels (see section 9.2)
Construction materials (see section 9.6)
Chemicals / plastics.

The 2019 International Energy Agency (IEA) report ‘Putting CO₂ to Use’ highlighted the potential future global markets for CO₂(IEA, 2019); Figure 9.1 shows their analysis of the key markets set out by future global market size and by potential climate benefit. The largest market is e-fuels, with demand driven in the early stages by SAF via government mandates. As SAF production scales up and carbon prices on fossil fuels rise, e-fuels will have an increasing share of the fuel market. Construction materials are considered to be the CO₂ use with the greatest climate benefits as CO₂ is stored within the materials and not immediately released upon use, as happens with fuels or utilisation in greenhouses.

A key unknown in the projections of future CO₂ demand is how much CO₂ is being recycled and reused onsite, as happens in the horticulture industry, and therefore how much CO₂ may be required in future that is not currently being noted within the CO₂ market. One example is the chemical industry, where CO₂ is reused as a feedstock (Huo, 2022). These uses should be monitored and reviewed over time to understand how they could contribute to demand for DAC CO₂.

Figure 9.1: Figure taken from an IEA report detailing the potential global market size and climate benefits of CO₂ derived products. (IEA, 2019)

E-fuels

Carbon-based (IEA, 2019) e-fuels are considered a major future market for DAC CO₂. Beyond CO₂ storage, e-fuels were the most discussed market for DAC CO₂ during the expert interviews within this project. The term e-fuels (also called synthetic fuels or power-to-liquid fuels, PtL) refers to molecular fuels made using electricity; these could be green hydrogen, ammonia or carbon-based e-fuels that can directly replace fossil-based fuels. These carbon-based fuels use CO₂ as a feedstock for the process and are expected to be major market for DAC CO₂.

Overview

The process for making carbon-based synthetic fuels depends on the type of fuel being made:

Fischer–Tropsch (FT) process is used to make long-chain hydrocarbons for synthetic aviation fuel, petrol, diesel etc.
Sabatier process is used for making synthetic methane
Synthetic methanol synthesis (not generally given another name).

This study largely focusses on outputs from the FT process, that creates a mixture of hydrocarbons of different lengths via a highly energy-intense process (more detail provided in Appendix I). The exact make-up of the outputs can be adjusted to favour certain chemical fractions, for example, if the process is optimised for synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF), the kerosene portion can be in the region of 60% of the output. (Wentrup, 2022)

E-fuels can be considered carbon neutral if:

The H₂ has come from a carbon-neutral source^[5]
The CO₂ has been captured either directly from the air or from biogenic sources
The energy used is zero-carbon, e.g. renewable energy sources.

The requirements on the CO₂ source vary between definitions, with some (including the UK SAF mandate) allowing CO₂to be supplied from processes where the CO₂ would otherwise have been emitted into the atmosphere (i.e. CO₂ could come from fossil-fuel exhaust systems) and some having a stricter requirement where the CO₂ must come from DAC or biogenic sources. The modelling within this study focusses on e-fuels produced from CO₂ captured via DAC.

Market for FT chemical byproducts

The FT process makes a mixture of hydrocarbons. When the process is optimised, 60%-75% of the FT output can be used directly for liquid hydrocarbon fuels such as e-SAF or e-diesel (Wentrup, 2022; Mazurova, 2023). The other products created in the FT process are generally shorter, lighter hydrocarbons such a naphtha. These byproducts are useful chemicals with their own markets but are not particularly high-value products making it unlikely that a market for the FT side products will have a significant impact on the cost of e-fuels. This picture would change if there was a shortage of such chemicals from current sources or if there was a distinct drive from the chemical industry to move away from fossil-fuel feedstocks.

Aviation, e-SAF

Aviation fuel is a key market for DAC in the form of SAF for three key reasons:

The aviation sector will struggle to electrify and will still rely heavily on fuels in a net-zero future
There are already targets for e-fuels in the UK SAF mandate (Department for Transport, 2024a)
The aviation industry is relatively high value compared to some other markets and has the potential to absorb higher costs where other markets do not.

This section details potential demand for DAC CO₂ based on e-SAF targets and the buyout price set out in the UK SAF mandate (Department for Transport, 2024a). This e-SAF section is the most detailed of the sections on potential CO₂ markets due to the clear targets for e-SAF and a clearer role for DAC. A short sensitivity analysis is included based on academic research. The key assumptions underpinning this section are detailed in Appendix I.

The UK SAF mandate

In 2025, 2% of UK jet fuel demand will be required to come from sustainable sources, increasing linearly to 10% in 2030, then to 22% in 2040.^[6] The mandate for e-SAF starts in 2028, reaching 0.5% in 2030 and 3.5% in 2040. For context, the last reported UK energy demands were 2022, when UK aviation fuel demands were around 12 Mtoe, though expected to increase in the short term in the rebound from the pandemic (Office for National Statistics, 2024). The mandate sets out intended CO₂ sources for e-SAF but does not currently set targets. The SAF mandate states there is potential to increase the target percentages for e-SAF if market conditions allow.

More information and a comparison with the EU SAF mandate is provided in 12.1.23.

Demand for e-SAF

The UK SAF mandate allows us to project demand for e-SAF and consequently for DAC CO₂. Figure 9.2 shows the projected e-SAF demand for the UK (left) and Scotland (right) based on the targets set out in the UK SAF mandate. These demands shown in Figure 9.2 are calculated using projections for the aviation sector from the UK Committee on Climate Change’s 6^th Carbon budget based on analysis carried out in 2019 (Committee on Climate Change, 2020). The figures show that demand for e-SAF in Scotland reaches above 0.04 Mtoe by 2040, around 7% of the equivalent values for the wider UK at 0.55 Mtoe by 2040.

Figure 9.2: Projected e-SAF demand for UK (left) and Scotland (right) broken down by aviation sector i.e. domestic, international and military.

Figure 9.2 shows the split of demands by domestic, international and military according to the splits from the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) 6^th Carbon Budget. The splits show Scotland has a much higher demand for fuel for domestic flights than the rest of the UK and that military demand is only a small portion. The Royal Air Force has been involved in the development and testing of synthetic fuels in the UK and could be a leader in future demand for e-SAF. However, with military demand being such a small portion of demand, the portion of e-SAF used by the military would have to be many times higher than the SAF mandate to add significant demand to the market. There is currently no indication that the military has such plans, though it could continue to be of notable benefit in supporting demonstrators and initial deployments.

Demand for CO₂for e-SAF

The demand for e-SAF will create a new market for CO₂ but the portion of that CO₂ that will come from DAC is not yet clear. Figure 9.3 show the expected CO₂ requirements for e-SAF production based on the assumptions in Table 12.7 in Appendix I. By 2040, the demand for CO₂ for SAF in the UK would reach around 2.6 MtCO₂, with demand in Scotland around 0.2 MtCO₂. By 2050, this value would increase to around 4.4 MtCO₂ for the UK and 0.3 MtCO₂ for Scotland. These values seem small compared to the potential CO₂ from existing biogenic sources in Scotland (potential estimated at 3.3 Mt), but that biogenic resource is restricted in quantity and location (Scottish Government, 2023; Food & Drink Federation, 2019).

The UK SAF mandate does not state requirements for DAC CO₂ but a 2022 briefing by Transport & Environment noted sub-targets from the EU SAF mandate that gave a target portion of CO₂ from DAC (Transport & Environment, 2022). ^[7] Transport & Environment projected DAC demand based on demand and availability of other sources, “DAC will start to supply CO₂ in 2030 and overtake other carbon sources as the main source by 2035-2040” (page 1). Taking a simple 50% of e-SAF CO₂ demand being met by DAC in 2040 would equate to 1.3 Mt CO₂ demand across the UK and 0.09 Mt CO₂ demand in Scotland, around 20% of the output of a 0.5 Mt DAC plant. However, the high cost of DAC CO₂ makes a 50% target ambitious in terms of supply; the values based on this 50% figure could therefore be seen as an ambitious value or upper limit for DAC demand. Even considering these values as an upper limit, the values demonstrate that demand for e-SAF within Scotland alone will not support a 0.5 Mt DAC plant, but if Scotland was leading UK green hydrogen and e-fuel production then demand for DAC would be higher than demand calculated for Scotland alone.

While this study has assumed that only 50% of CO₂ for e-SAF would come from DAC, the Committee on Climate Change 7^th Carbon Budget (published at the end of this study) appears to have assumed that all CO₂ required for e-SAF comes from DAC, therefore the projected DAC demands for e-fuels are roughly double the values shown here (Committee on Climate Change, 2025).

Something that could significantly affect demand, especially Scottish demand, would be reduction in demand for domestic flights. As we see in Figure 9.2, nearly half of the Scottish e-SAF demand comes from domestic flights, around a quarter of which alone were to London Heathrow, with Belfast, Bristol and other London airports other main destinations (Transport Scotland, 2023). If train and ferry services were improved and made more cost-effective, this domestic portion of demand could reduce.

Figure 9.3: Demand for CO₂ for e-SAF for the UK (left) and for Scotland (right).

Buyout price

The SAF mandate sets targets for SAF and e-SAF as a portion of UK aviation fuel demand but also sets a buyout price for these fuels: the price to be paid by the fuel supplier for failing to meet the SAF and e-SAF percentage requirements. To be competitive, the maximum price for SAF and e-SAF effectively becomes the buyout price + the cost of conventional fuel.

The buyout price in the UK SAF mandate is (Department for Transport, 2024a, p. 46):

£4.70 per litre, £5,875 per tonne for SAF
£5.00 per litre, £6,250 per tonne for e-SAF

Potential profitability of e-SAF

The buyout price in the UK SAF mandate effectively sets a cap on the potential profitability of DAC and allows us to understand the range of DAC costs that are compatible with future e-SAF markets. The buyout price set for e-SAF is designed based on modelled costs for e-fuels using DAC and with a price premium of 20% applied to SAF production costs (Department for Transport, 2024b, p. 83).^[8] By design, the e-SAF buyout price should allow for DAC to be profitable, but it does rely on DAC achieving projected cost reductions (though it is not explicit about projected DAC costs). E-SAF made using DAC CO₂ is still expected to be among the most expensive sources of e-SAF (though one of the most scalable) therefore the size of the market for DAC e-SAF beyond mandated amounts will depend on whether other sources can meet demand.

To examine DAC costs compatible with the e-SAF buyout price, Figure 9.4 shows the resultant e-SAF price per tonne for a range of DAC CO₂ values (y-axis, £0 – £1,000) with other costs (e.g. facilities, capex, green hydrogen, energy) aggregated into non-CO₂ costs (x-axis, £1,500/t to £6,500/t). Two dashed lines are shown on the figure marking the buyout price of £6,250/t and the buyout price minus the assumed 20% premium on e-SAF, reflecting the potential margin that SAF producers would add to production costs. Removing the 20% premium from the buyout price of £6,250/tonne gives a production value of £5,100/tCO₂. Conventional jet fuel in the UK costs broadly in the region of £1,000/t, making the maximum compatible e-SAF price in the region of £6,100/t, very close to the buyout price (Jet A1 Fuel, 2024).

A technoeconomic assessment of SAF through PtL estimated DAC CO₂ as around 40% of the total cost of £5/litre e-fuel production (Rojas-Michaga, 2023). This set the non-CO₂ cost around £3/litre, £3,750/t. Using Figure 9.4, we can see that with non-CO₂ costs at £3,750/tonne, DAC CO₂ could be around £400/tCO₂ while being compatible with the e-SAF buyout price. This value of £400/tCO₂ is well below the DAC costs of capture of solid DAC of £550/tCO₂ in the central case discussed in section 0. Additionally, this value is the cost of sale and would therefore need to include the cost of transport, storage and profit. The central ETS price of £142/tCO₂ forecast for 2040 would bring DAC costs into the compatible range but still without a profit margin. For liquid DAC, the central case has DAC costs around £340/tCO₂, below this target compatible value of £400/tCO₂ and therefore with potential for a profit margin. However, it should be noted again that the liquid DAC costs are more uncertain than the solid DAC costs and other international locations are more attractive than Scotland to liquid DAC developers.

In terms of potentially profitable solid DAC scenarios, low-cost electricity would bring the cost of solid DAC down into the £400 region prior to the ETS (Figure 7.3), and waste heat from co-located e-fuel production could bring it lower still (Figure 7.5). Co-location would also remove transport costs. A major advantage of DAC is that it can be flexible with respect to location (access to energy infrastructure will remain a constraint) though transport costs are only expected to be in the region of £20/tCO₂ (value sensitive to distance) (ClimateXChange, 2024). The main location requirements are around space, grid capacity and access to green, low-cost electricity. These are all the same requirements as for e-fuel production so co-location would be a sensible option.

In terms of profit, it could be assumed that DAC was subsumed into the e-fuel production costs, therefore the 20% premium applied to the buyout price would effectively include the profit on DAC. If the DAC was a separately supplied feedstock, an additional 10% profit on top of the DAC costs would be in the region of £40-£55/tCO₂. These numbers are of course highly uncertain and dependent on many factors but they do show a potential for DAC to be profitable as a source of CO₂ for e-SAF.

Figure 9.4: Comparison of e-SAF costs (values shown in bands) depending on the cost of DAC CO₂ (y-axis) and all other costs in e-fuel production (x-axis). Dashed lines are shown for the buyout price listed for e-SAF in the UK SAF mandate and for the buyout price minus an assumed 20% premium placed on production costs by suppliers.

Other impacts on DAC cost, market and potential profitability

The comparison between DAC costs (i.e. LCOD) and the buyout price shows that DAC costs modelled for Scotland could be compatible with e-SAF production. However, there are three key factors that would have a major impact on potential DAC profitability:

Competition in the market and profit margins, including the cost of conventional fuel
Cost of H₂
Cost of energy

Firstly, as discussed above, to be compatible with an e-SAF cost of £6,100/t, DAC costs would need to come down to around £400/tCO₂. From the projections in section 0, liquid DAC could be compatible with these values or solid DAC using either low-cost electricity (Figure 7.3) or waste heat from co-located e-fuel production (Figure 7.5). The projected central ETS price of £142 for 2040 would bring DAC CO₂ costs down into the £100-£300/tCO₂ region. However, e-SAF from DAC CO₂ is still estimated to be one of the most expensive forms of e-SAF. The market will rely on there not being enough e-SAF from other sources, such as e-SAF generated from biogenic CO₂ for DAC CO₂to be competitive, which the analysis for the UK SAF mandate projects to be around 2-4 times cheaper than PtL from DAC (Department for Transport, 2024b).

Secondly, the cost of H₂ assumed in the central case of the Rojas-Michaga et. al paper is £3.59/kg H₂(Rojas-Michaga, 2023).The most recent ClimateXChange report looking into green hydrogen production in Scotland, titled ‘Cost reduction pathways of green hydrogen production in Scotland’, estimated green hydrogen production costs in the region of £3.4/kg H₂ by 2045 (£4.1/kg H₂ including transport). (ClimateXChange, 2023) The sensitivity analysis in the ClimateXChange work put 2045 values between £2.8/kg H₂and £5.9/kg H₂ such that green hydrogen costs remain a major source of uncertainty in costs with the potential to limit the viability of the industry.

Thirdly, changes in the cost of energy would have major impacts on both DAC costs and e-fuel production costs. The Rojas-Michaga et al. study uses central costs of 6p/kWh based on the cost of electricity from wind, around half the projected cost of electricity in the Green Book but in line with the reduced cost electricity values used in Figure 7.3. (Rojas-Michaga, 2023). This low-cost electricity scenario would result in costs for solid DAC in the region of £400-£430/tCO₂, and bring hydrogen costs to the low end of projected costs from the ClimateXChange report (ClimateXChange, 2023, p. 42). The triple impact of low-cost electricity on e-fuel production, DAC CO₂ and green H₂ production makes it a major lever in whether DAC and e-fuel production could be profitable within Scotland.

Shipping

Within the industry interviews conducted as part of this study and within literature, shipping was viewed as a second major market within the UK for e-fuels (International Energy Agency, IEA, 2024). Maritime transport has more options for fossil-free fuels than aviation due to weight and volume of fuel being less of an issue. The fuels discussed in relation to maritime decarbonisation are methane, methanol, hydrogen, ammonia and gas oil/diesel (Lloyd’s Register, UMAS, 2021). These fuels currently come from fossil fuels either directly using fossil feedstock or using fossil fuel energy, but they can be made sustainably, using clean energy and clean feedstocks (i.e. feedstocks obtained with clean energy).

Although there is an understanding that the shipping industry must decarbonise, there is no equivalent to the UK and EU SAF mandates that proscribe the percentage of sustainable fuels or e-fuels. The FuelEU Maritime mandate sets targets for reducing emissions from shipping but not to the level of detail of the SAF mandates (European Union, 2024). This section uses estimations from industry reports to understand the potential market for shipping e-fuels and the potential for DAC CO₂ to be competitive in that market.

Demand for sustainable shipping fuels

Potential demand for shipping e-fuels was modelled based on projected demand for shipping fuels from current UK fuel demand data (Office for National Statistics, 2024), shipping projections from the CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget (Committe on Climate Change, 2020) and industry projections on future fuel mixes (Lloyd’s Register, UMAS, 2021; Transport & Environment, 2024) . Demand within the UK fuel demand data is broken down into international, coastal and naval. Within this study, it is assumed that domestic shipping will largely electrify, with sustainable fuels prioritised for international shipping. Office for Nationals Statistics (ONS) data gives 2022 values of 8.3 Mtoe of fuel for shipping, split 75% fuel oil and 25% gas oil. Of the total demand, 81% is international, 16% coastal and 2% naval. This 81% demand for international shipping, 6.8 Mtoe, is the focus of the modelling for potential e-fuel demand in this study.

A 2019 report by Lloyd’s Register and UMAS set out a number of scenarios of the potential future mix of low-carbon shipping fuels: a renewable energy dominated pathway; a bioenergy dominated pathway, and a mixed pathway (Lloyd’s Register, UMAS, 2021). The central, mixed pathway (figure shown in Figure 12.812 in Appendix I) shows e-fuels reaching around 20% of demand by 2040 and 30% by 2050 but this covers all e-fuels including hydrogen and ammonia that are not carbon-based. A more recent publication from European Federation for Transport and Environment projects that e-ammonia will be the dominant e-fuel for shipping, covering around 80% of e-fuel demand with carbon-based fuels covering the remaining 20% (shown in Figure 12.13 in Appendix I) The projected mix from the Transport & Environment report suggests only a relatively brief 10-year role for e-diesel with a more permanent transition to e-methanol and e-LNG but with demand for any carbon-based e-fuels not picking up until 2040.

With carbon-based e-fuels not expected to come into the mix of shipping e-fuels until 2040, this would mean demand for carbon-based e-fuels for shipping across the UK would reach about 0.35 Mtoe by 2045, 0.5 Mtoe by 2050. With Scotland representing around 4% of international shipping in the UK, Scottish demand would be in the region of 14 ktoe in 2045, 20 ktoe in 2050. These values are lower than the values projected for e-SAF but ramp much more steeply between 2040 and 2045. Although fuel demand for shipping and aviation is similar, the fact that such a small portion of international UK shipping comes via Scotland (~4%) means that the shipping e-fuel market would be heavily driven by UK demand.

Demand for DAC CO₂for shipping

Of the potential future fuels for shipping, e-methanol, e-LNG plus e-gas oil and e-fuel oil are the carbon-based molecules that would lead to demand for DAC CO₂. E-gas oil and e-fuel oil production is very similar to that for e-SAF discussed in section 0. The FT process could be optimised for shipping fuels such that a larger fraction of FT output was suitable, potentially up to 75% (Bezergianni, 2013). Synthetic forms of methane (e-LNG) and e-methanol can be produced via similar processes (i.e. combining hydrogen and CO₂). E-methanol and e-LNG are not ‘drop-in’ fuels so would require new ships or retrofitting of propulsion system, although there are some ships that already use LNG.

Figure 9.5 shows projected demand for CO₂ for shipping e-fuels for the UK (left) and Scotland (right). The ranges reflect the high and low renewable energy fuel pathways in the Lloyd’s & UMAS report and the split of e-fuels (i.e. ammonia, hydrogen, carbon-based fuels) projected in the 2024 Transport Environment report “E-fuels observatory for shipping” (Lloyd’s Register, UMAS, 2021; Transport & Environment, 2024).^[9]

The central values in Figure 9.5 show CO₂ demand in Scotland reaching towards 0.1 MtCO₂ by 2050, around 2 MtCO₂ in the UK as a whole. The values shown in these figures are based on CO₂ demand from creating e-fuels in the form of e-gas oil and e-fuel oil via the FT process. E-LNG and e-methanol would require similar amounts of CO₂ as they require less CO₂per tonne but have a lower energy density, meaning more fuel is needed.

As with CO₂ demand for e-SAF, not all the CO₂ for these fuels would come from DAC. Taking the same assumption as for e-SAF of 50% of CO₂ demand coming from DAC, DAC demand would reach in Scotland 0.05 MtCO₂ by 2050, around 1 MtCO₂ in the UK as a whole. The Scottish demand would account for around 10% of the output from a 0.5 Mt plant, adding to the 20% demand from e-SAF. Scottish e-fuel demands for aviation and shipping would be projected to support a 0.15 Mt DAC plant by around 2040, but again if Scotland was supplying e-fuels to meet wider UK demands, DAC CO₂ demand would be far above 0.5 Mt CO₂.

Figure 9.5: Projected demand range for CO₂for e-fuel for shipping in the UK (left) and Scotland (right). The central line corresponds to the central ‘Equal mix’ scenario in the Lloyd’s & UMAS report with the coloured areas showing the range from the other scenarios (Lloyd’s Register, UMAS, 2021).

Potential profitability

The analysis above indicates that the market for DAC for carbon-based shipping e-fuels is a broadly around half the size of the market for e-SAF. However, with more options for net-zero compatible fuels there is more potential competition in the market and a lower cost ceiling than for e-SAF. Projections for shipping e-fuel costs are in the region of £1,500-£2,500/t, multiple times higher than current cost for shipping fuel but far below the costs for e-SAF discussed in section 9.3.5 (UMAS, 2023). This difference between projected shipping fuel purchase costs and projected production costs for e-fuels via the FT process presents a major challenge when considering e-fuels from DAC for shipping.

Despite this cost difference, the 2024 Transport & Environment report projects that around 20% of shipping e-fuels will be carbon based, initially mostly e-diesel then shifting to e-LNG with an ongoing role for e-methanol (Transport & Environment, 2024). A similar cost analysis to that carried out for e-SAF is shown in Figure 9.5, showing the resultant price per tonne for e-fuel oil produced via the FT process. The values are shown for a range of DAC CO₂ values (y-axis, £0 – £700) with other contributing costs aggregated (e.g. facilities capex, green hydrogen, energy) into non-CO₂ costs (x-axis, £0 to £3,000). From Figure 9.6 it is clear that e-fuel oil made from DAC via the FT process is highly unlikely to come into the region of £1,500-£2,500/t.

For DAC-based e-gas oil and e-fuel oil to reach these values, not only would DAC costs have to be substantially lower than the central projections in this study, but green hydrogen and e-fuel production costs would also need to be much lower than current estimates. Much lower electricity costs would result in green hydrogen and e-fuel production costs being greatly reduced; zero-cost energy (likely using waste heat and zero-cost electricity) would bring DAC costs into the region of £300/tCO₂, costs that are still far above being compatible with the £1,500-£2,000/t.

The ETS price would have a potential impact on whether shipping e-fuels were a potential market for DAC. In 2040, the central price is projected to be £142/tCO₂e, with the high price at £169/tCO₂e. If the other costs associated with e-fuel production could be brought into the region of £1,500-£2,000/tonne, DAC costs would need to be in the region of £100-£200/tCO₂. These DAC values are still well below the most ambitious estimates for DAC costs presented in section 0, which reach as low as around £300/tCO₂ but with a carbon price of £142/t, fuels produced from DAC CO₂ could potentially enter the market.

In conclusion, shipping e-fuels being a market for DAC CO₂ is likely to rely on a combination of the following:

Costs of e-fuel production being at the lowest end of current estimates, which would include the cost of DAC CO₂ and green hydrogen being at the lowest end of current estimates
ETS prices being in the central or high range, or being greatly increased so that it effectively covers the cost of DAC
If an e-fuel production plant does not have access to biogenic or fossil CO₂, the flexibility of DAC could make DAC CO₂ the most economic (or only) option
sites were located near renewable energy sources but away from other CO₂ sources such as industrial sites
Demand for sustainable fuels being high and driving up market prices.

Figure 9.6: Comparison of e-fuel oil costs for shipping (values shown in bands) depending on the cost of DAC CO₂ (y-axis) and all other costs in e-fuel production (x-axis).

Drinks industry

The food and drink industry, and particularly the carbonated drink industry is of interest for DAC for several reasons:

The food and drink industry is a major UK consumer of CO₂ in the UK
DAC can produce very pure CO₂ meaning it is suitable for food and drink grade CO₂
The carbonated drinks industry (e.g. soft drinks and beer) has a high mark up on products, especially compared to an industry like horticulture or construction materials
There is a market for premium products within the industry.

The market for premium products within the drinks industry is of particular interest as there is potentially a market for products that are greener or more ethical, a ‘green premium’. Typical examples that are already active in the market are organic or fair-trade products. We have used this idea of a green premium to understand how the higher cost of CO₂ from DAC might be absorbed into product costs.

Additionally, there is already proven interest in DAC within the drinks industry with Coca Cola partnering with Climeworks and more recently investing in UK DAC company Airhive to supply DAC CO₂ to replace fossil-derived CO₂ at a production site (AP Ventures, 2024; The Chemical Engineer, 2018).

Current demands for CO₂ and potential demand for DAC

Industry reports suggest the UK food and drink industry consumes in the region of 300-360 ktCO₂annually (Food & Drink Federation, 2019). As this demand is UK-wide, demand will not be spatially concentrated enough to support a 0.5 Mt DAC plant in Scotland. However, the potential size of the market is still considered and the potential for profitability as it is a market area where DAC CO₂ is of interest.

The primary uses of CO₂ in the food and drinks industry are carbonating drinks, chilling and packaging, transporting food and stunning animals. As discussion in section 9.1.2, as other CO₂ sources are reduced, all these markets will need alternative sources of CO₂ but the carbonated drinks industry is the most interesting for DAC. In Table 9.1, estimations are shown for the demand for CO₂ within the soft drinks industry across the UK. These values add up to only 46-77 ktCO₂ across the UK, information on the portion of this that is attributable to Scotland is not easily available so an assumption of 10% is made, broadly in line with population. A Scottish demand of 4.6-7.7 ktCO₂ would only account for 1-2% of annual CO₂ generation from a 0.5 Mt DAC plant and would therefore not be a major market.

Table 9.1: Calculation of CO₂ requirement for UK soft drink and beer industries.

Metric	Soft drinks	Beer
Annual UK production	5,923 million litres (British Soft Drinks Association, 2024)	3,420 million litres (Statista, 2024)
CO₂ required per litre	6-8 g/litre	4-10 g/litre (The Beer Store, 2024)
CO₂ required for annual UK production	36-47 ktCO₂	14-34 ktCO₂

Potential profitability

The price of CO₂ for utilisation discussed in interviews within this study were in the region of £100-£300/tCO₂ though a broader range of up to £900 over recent years was discussed, with higher values again reported in the media (Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, 2022). Food-grade CO₂ commands a higher price than industrial CO₂ due to its higher purity requirements.

To understand potential profitability of DAC in this market, we have considered the impact of changes in the cost of CO₂ on the overall cost of the product. The cost of CO₂ is estimated to be around 0.5%-1.5% of total production cost based on the costs in Table 9.1; much smaller than the portion of costs for e-fuels. Figure 9.7 shows the CO₂ costs that would be compatible with 2% and 5% increases in production costs; the values are shown as ranges to reflect fluctuations in current costs, estimated to be £200-£300/tCO₂. The 2% increase could be considered a green premium or simply a change in production costs, a 5% increase is more representative of a green premium that would to be passed on to customers by marketing the product as a green product.

The value of this green premium depends heavily on the product and the price of the product and varies country to country (Boston Consulting Group, 2023). PwC research giving a value of 9.7% for a green premium was focused shopping habits and is therefore more appropriate for the drinks market (PwC, 2024). Consumer research into green premiums gives values around 10% are but the full 10% has not been applied in the analysis here as other aspects of the production would presumably need to be ‘greened’ and the associated costs for those would also need to be included (PwC, 2024).

The most obvious insight from Figure 9.7 is that the projected DAC CO₂ costs in section 0 are comfortably in the ranges shown. This contrast with e-fuels is because CO₂ makes up a much smaller portion of the total cost than it does for e-fuels; drinks products that use less CO₂ can naturally accommodate higher costs. When CO₂ costs spiked, media reported that costs reached £2,000-£3,000t/CO₂, easily increasing production costs by 10% for drinks and understandably causing issues in supply chains (Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit, 2022).

Figure 9.7: Range of DAC costs compatible with the carbonated drinks industry

The scenarios along the x-axis show various combinations of green premiums on drinks from using DAC depending on the percentage production costs CO₂ currently makes up. The range in each scenario reflects uncertainty and fluctuations in current costs, assumed to be in the region of £200-£300/tCO₂.

The values presented in Figure 9.7 demonstrate that the carbonated drinks industry is highly compatible with the cost of CO₂ from DAC and could likely be profitable. However, the market size means that this would only be on the scale of a few kilo tonnes.

Construction materials

Construction materials come up consistently in discussions about carbon storage and utilisation because it is large-volume market and offers multi-decade storage potential. Additionally, construction materials offer an early market for CO₂ while other markets, like e-fuels, are still developing. However, a market size or understanding the role of DAC is difficult to quantify. Additionally, construction materials are a low-value industry, making absorbing additional costs very difficult.

A key niche for ‘green’ construction materials is turning waste products into useful materials. Carbon8 make use of reactive residues come from processes like energy from waste, biomass, and the steel and paper industries, reacting them with CO₂ captured from the same process to form aggregates that can be used in construction (Carbon8, 2024). A major financial value in this process comes from savings in waste disposal. These savings, combined with a market for the product and a carbon price, create a market for the CO₂-storing product.^[10] Currently, the CO₂ used is collected onsite via CCS, limiting the role of DAC. However, as the market grows, so would the demand for CO₂; not all sites may be suitable for CCS and a portion may choose to bring in CO₂ from elsewhere, creating a role for DAC.

For cement and concrete, CO₂ can be stored when the material is cast or when a structure is demolished and the concrete is reused. Quantification of the CO₂ stored in concrete needs to be carefully considered: standard concrete contains some carbon and naturally reacts with CO₂ in the air. For carbon capture and storage, the material has to store additional carbon to the amount that it would in standard use. Adding CO₂ to cement has been advertised as enhancing the strength of the concrete but this depends heavily on the production process to ensure the concrete is not weakened instead (Fu, 2024).

Potential role for DAC CO₂

There are currently no figures for projected CO₂ demand in the construction industry and even Scotland-specific demand for construction materials is difficult to find data on. The UK datasets on demand for building and construction materials aggregates demand for Scotland and Wales, ranging from 6%-9% of UK demand (Department for Business and Trade, 2024). The IEA’s 2019 report ‘Putting CO₂ to Use’ stated that companies creating products from industrial waste and CO₂ were consuming around 75 kt/year globally, with UK-based Carbon8 storing 5 ktCO₂/year in 2019 (IEA, 2019). By 2021, Carbon8 was producing 300 kt/year of aggregates, which would capture around 10%-20% CO₂ per weight, therefore storing in the region of 10-20 ktCO₂/year (University of Greenwich, 2021). However, this CO₂ demand is largely met by the processes that produce the industrial waste and additional demand for CO₂ may be limited.

The role for DAC in this process would be where there is not sufficient local CO₂ demand or where onsite capture is not practical, for example it is too expensive and disruptive to install carbon capture, or space is limited. In these cases, DAC CO₂ could be transported, but costs would need to be competitive.

Potential market size

Aggregates

Scotland produces around 21 Mt of aggregates per year, mainly from quarries but also from construction and demolition waste. The Carbon8 project generates aggregates from waste materials, with a market size more likely to be dictated by the availability of reactive waste materials than driven by the overall size of the aggregates market.

If we take energy from waste (EfW) as an example: 1.62 Mt of waste was incinerated in Scotland in 2023, a four-fold increase since 2011 (Scottish Government, 2024). The waste output from EfW is 20%-30% of the input by weight, therefore around 0.3-0.5 Mt of EfW waste outputs is generated annually in Scotland. If we again apply a 15% CO₂ uptake to this waste output, we have a CO₂ demand in the region of 0.05-0.07 Mt of CO₂. Most of the CO₂ needed for this process would be expected to come from the EfW process itself, even if 10% of this demand came from DAC to top up local supply, which would only generate a few kilo tonnes of DAC demand annually. Therefore, demand from processes industrial waste is not likely to contribute significantly to DAC demand in Scotland and would not be a driver for a 0.5 Mt DAC plant.

Cement

The UK consumes in the region of 15 Mt/year of cement, with Scottish and Welsh demand together accounting for 6%-9% annually (Statista, 2024). If we take Scottish consumption to be around 4% of the UK’s, we have a value for Scottish cement demand of 0.6 Mt/year. The potential CO₂ uptake of cements depends on the chemical make-up, ranging between 8% and 25%, here we take 15% as a central value. (Hanifa, 2023) The theoretical maximum CO₂ demand for Scottish cement would therefore be around 90 ktCO₂/year. The portion of cement that is treated to store CO₂ will depend on a market for green products, driven somewhat by consumer choice but most likely by legislative requirements to use lower-carbon building products.

As with aggregates, most CO₂ for this process would be expected to come from carbon capture on local process, rather than DAC, and even then, local DAC with minimal transport may be preferable. As such, cement will not be a major driver for a DAC plant in the region of 0.5 Mt but could contribute early demand or drive demand for smaller, dispersed DAC plants.

Cost compatibility and potential profitability

Industry discussion within this project indicated that current CO₂ prices in the region of £100-£300 were compatible with the market for incorporating into construction materials. The high end of this compatible range is at the very low end for projected solid DAC costs in the UK.

As with the shipping e-fuels industry, cost compatibility of DAC is likely to rely on either or both of a high ETS price or legislation. The ETS price would need to make up the difference between the £100-£300 range and the solid DAC price, projected to be in the region of £550, potentially higher if this demand is coming earlier than 2040. The current projected ETS of £142 in 2040 would not bring the solid DAC CO₂ price in line with this range; an ETS price in the region of £250-£350 would be needed to bring DAC prices into this compatible range.

Conclusions

Scaling DAC requires overcoming technical, economic and logistical challenges. Key advances in air contactor design, sorbent efficiency and integration with renewable and waste heat are driving progress. However, high energy demands, market uncertainty and supply chain constraints remain significant barriers. For DAC to fulfil its potential, policy intervention, infrastructure development and a stable CO₂ market will be essential. With continued research and real-world deployment, DAC can play a pivotal role in meeting net zero goals.

The key aim of this study was to understand whether a DAC plant would be profitable in Scotland and under what conditions, and to understand the likelihood of those conditions where possible.

Research and development trends in DAC

DAC technology is advancing rapidly, with research focused on enhancing efficiency, reducing costs and improving integration with renewable energy and waste heat. Innovations in air contactor designs aim to optimise geometries and reduce capital costs, while ongoing work on sorbents and solvents targets scalable, cost-effective materials that maximise capture rates and minimise regeneration energy demands. New approaches to regeneration processes are exploring modular, low-energy solutions that can be optimised for climates and operational scales.

Integration with other energy systems is an area of future focus but research so far has been limited, partially by commercially sensitivity around sharing details of processes. Leveraging waste heat from processes like green hydrogen and e-fuel production could significantly offset DAC’s substantial thermal energy requirements but these technologies are also not yet developed at scale.

Limiting factors in DAC deployment

High energy demands and costs remain primary obstacles, with regions offering stable, low-cost energy (e.g., Iceland and Texas) better positioned for deployment than those with higher energy prices, such as the UK. The current reliance on volatile voluntary carbon markets adds further uncertainty, underscoring the need for government policy to provide confidence in a long-term market.

Additional hurdles include planning delays, including the fear of delays and difficulties, and the immature state of CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure. While cooler, drier climates provide marginal advantages, they are secondary to the broader economic and logistical barriers.

Cost of DAC deployment

The most obvious insight from the modelling in this study on the cost of DAC is that liquid DAC is projected to be cheaper than solid DAC in terms of costs per tonne of CO₂ captured because of lower capex costs and lower energy costs. The central scenario in this study projects costs of capture (i.e. not including transport, storage or profit) in the region of £550/tCO₂ for solid DAC and £340/tCO₂ for liquid DAC. This is focussed on Scotland in 2040, assuming a global deployment level of 15 Mt. These central values carry significant uncertainty, particularly to overall learning rates, but also to the cost of key elements such as materials capex and energy costs.

Energy costs are the biggest contributor to the cost of DAC as modelled in this study, accounting for around half of the total costs. Although energy costs are higher for solid DAC than liquid DAC, there is more scope for reducing energy costs in solid DAC through the use of low-cost electricity and waste heat due the fact that solid DAC relies more on electricity and operates at a much lower temperature than liquid DAC allowing a bigger role for waste heat.

The waste heat sources considered specifically in this study were green hydrogen production and e-fuel production via the Fischer-Tropsch process, the process used to make e-fuels such as synthetic aviation fuel from CO₂ and hydrogen. With e-fuels considered a major future market for DAC CO₂, and Scotland considered an attractive location for these industries (especially within the UK), co-location of these three industries is very plausible, especially due to the major impact on the cost of DAC.

The option to use hydrogen instead of natural gas to provide the high temperatures needed for liquid DAC was also investigated. Using hydrogen pushes up the cost of liquid DAC by around 30% but even with this increase it is still cheaper than solid DAC, if that solid DAC is relying on grid-cost electricity.

An additional sensitivity was performed to understand the impact of financing costs on the cost of DAC by increasing the financing rates from 3.5%, in line with social discounting rates (DESNZ, 2024) to more commercial levels of 10% (UK Government, 2021). In this sensitivity, the cost of both solid and liquid DAC is increased significantly by the increase in required rates of return on capex investments highlighting that the cost of DAC will depend heavily on how the initial capex is funded.

International comparison

The cost of solid and liquid DAC in Scotland is compared to other potentially suitable, international locations. While liquid DAC is estimated to be cheaper than solid DAC per tonne of CO₂ removed, the findings of the international comparison showed that Scotland was the most expensive of the regions investigated for liquid DAC, while Scotland was more favourable than many countries for solid DAC. This insight was in line with discussions within expert interviews in this study that indicated that Scotland and wider UK were not target locations for deploying liquid DAC, though this picture could change over time. Additionally, whilst liquid DAC has been estimated to be cheaper, the use of natural gas for its heat requirements may encounter challenges due to societal acceptance and political opposition to the continued use of fossil fuels.

Market opportunities and potential profitability

The conclusions from this study highlighted that there is a future market for DAC in Scotland broadly in the region of 0.15 Mt by 2040, not enough to make a 0.5 Mt DAC plant profitable for utilisation alone. Two key factors could make a plant of that scale profitable: demand for e-fuels from the rest of the UK or generating revenue from sending most of the captured CO₂ to storage. Scotland’s clean energy resources, most notably offshore wind, offer key advantages for allowing DAC to be profitable especially when placed alongside other technologies such as green hydrogen and e-fuel production that could offer waste heat.

Synthetic fuels, especially sustainable aviation fuels (e-SAF), offer the most obvious market for DAC CO₂ in Scotland, though it does not currently have specific requirements for DAC. In this study, we estimate that by 2040, DAC CO₂ demand for e-SAF would be around 0.09 MtCO₂ in Scotland and 1.3 MtCO₂ for the wider UK but these values are ambitious based on DAC supplying a large share of the CO₂ used. The projected cost of liquid DAC would be compatible with the buyout price for e-SAF, with the compatibility of solid DAC relying on the ETS price and potentially lower fuel costs or waste heat to be profitable

DAC demand from shipping fuels was projected to be lower than for e-SAF (~0.05 Mt for Scotland, 1 Mt for UK) due to there being more options for net-zero compatible fuels, with a knock-on effect on the price that would be paid for fuels. Consequently, not only would DAC costs need to be much lower but so would the other costs for e-fuel production, i.e. energy costs and green hydrogen production.

Carbonation for the drinks is a small but potentially highly profitable market for DAC and could support early development. However, the market is small, only a few kilo tonnes in Scotland, so it would not drive demand for a large-scale plant.

Construction materials come up consistently in discussion, but the potential market is hard to quantify, especially in a large-volume but low-margin industry. The demand for CO₂ could be in the region of tens of kilo tonnes but much of this is expected to be generated and reused on-site rather than bought in from DAC. DAC could play a role in topping up on-site supply, but this demand is not likely to drive DAC demand on a large scale.

Future considerations for DAC in Scotland

Below are a set of future considerations for each of the sections within this study, highlighting areas that are likely to evolve over coming years or that could have a major impact on the potential profitability of DAC in Scotland.

Future considerations for R&D:

Monitor key developments in DAC that would lead to major changes in technology, the most obvious examples being:
Economies of scale balance against reduced storage and transport costs by building smaller plants locally to CO₂ demand
Energy demand reductions that could address the high energy costs associated with DAC
Alternative regeneration technologies where that required less energy or allowed lower regeneration temperature for liquid DAC, eliminating the need for gas and the resultant carbon emissions
Monitor the insights gained from deployments and whether they affect any key assumptions in DAC cost calculations and market assumptions
Encouraging and facilitating co-operation between industries such as DAC companies, e-fuel companies and those developing green hydrogen facilities to understand the potential to use waste heat in DAC.

Future considerations for limiting factors:

Continue to engage with DAC providers, especially with regards to the planning process
Communicate where there is an expected market for DAC (both geographically and in which markets) and engage with suppliers to understand key limiting factors for that site.

Future considerations for the cost of DAC:

Monitor global deployment levels and learning rates, two of the major contributors to DAC cost reductions; R&D will feed strongly into learning rates
Ongoing consideration of energy prices on DAC, and how changes such as zonal pricing would affect DAC costs
Opportunities to co-locate DAC plants with waste heat sources, particularly green hydrogen and e-fuel production.

Future considerations for the market for DAC CO₂:

Monitor relevant details within policies, such as the target for DAC CO₂ in the UK SAF mandate
Seek to understand how DAC demand and generation will be spread across the UK. For example, if e-SAF production using DAC will be focused on a small number of sites, such that a DAC plant in Scotland would a meet a significant portion of UK demand.
Monitor signalling from maritime agencies and governments on the predicted role of e-fuels in shipping. For example, if ammonia began to be viewed less favourably, the role of sustainable carbon-based shipping fuels would increase
Engage with the chemical industry to understand the role of externally generated CO₂ in future processes.

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Appendices

Additional information on DAC technology

This appendix provides additional information on DAC technologies, focussed on established methods.

Within both solid and liquid DAC, the process itself (solvent/sorbent, regeneration process, mechanical design etc.) varies and is an active topic of research and development. Three methods developed by leading companies Climeworks, Global Thermostat, Carbon Engineering are currently at the furthest stages of development and scalability (IEA, 2024). An overview of the most active areas of research and development are provided and assessed for their potential to improve upon these established methods.

Liquid DAC – Aqueous Hydroxides

The liquid DAC capture process used by Carbon Engineering captures CO₂from ambient air using aqueous solution of KOH to form potassium carbonate (Sodiq, 2022). The carbonate is subsequently fed into a calciner where KOH is regenerated and CO₂released in a high temperature, high energy calcination process. The temperatures needed for this regeneration process are around 900°C and above; these temperatures are typically achieved by burning gas, with the released CO₂captured within the process. These high temperatures are an issue for liquid DAC technologies as heat pumps cannot reach this temperature meaning liquid DAC cannot run solely on renewable electricity.

Solid DAC – Solid Amines

Climeworks and Global Thermostat use a solid amine to capture CO₂from ambient air. Once the adsorption beds reach the desired capacity, a temperature-vacuum regeneration system (TVSA) heats the beds between 80 – 100°C which regenerates the sorbent and releases CO₂and water (McQueen et al., 2021). Heat pumps can provide the temperatures needed for solid DAC but not for liquid DAC.

Solid DAC – Solid Alkali Carbonates

This method developed by Heirloom uses a calcium looping method, similar to the liquid DAC method used by Carbon Engineering. Instead of an aqueous hydroxide, solid calcium carbonate (limestone) is heated in a calciner, producing pure CO₂and calcium oxide. The calcium oxide is arranged in a bed and captures CO₂passively from the air. Initially this capture stage required up to four weeks to reach the desired carbon uptake but recent innovation and developments has reduced this time to several days (Heirloom, 2022).

Table 12.1: Summary of established DAC technologies.

Method	Example Company	Energy requirements	Data Type / Source
Aqueous hydroxide solvent and calcium based kraft regeneration process	Carbon Engineering	High temperature heat 2450 kWh_th 1460 kWh_thand 370 kWh_e 2420-2530 kWh_th 1480-1520 kWh_th and 370 kWh_e(Keith, 2018)	Modelling (Keith, 2018) Modelling (An, 2022)
			Modelling (Keith, 2018) Modelling (An, 2022)
Solid amine sorbent and temperature-vacuum (TVSA) regeneration process	Climeworks + Global Thermostat	Low temperature heat Current: 3310 kWh_thand 700 kWh_e Target: 1500 kWh_th and 500 kWh_e 3190-3530 kWh_thand 290 kWh_e	Plant Data (Duetz, 2021) Modelling (Sendi, 2022)
			Plant Data (Duetz, 2021) Modelling (Sendi, 2022)
Solid Alkali Carbonate and calcium based kraft regeneration process	Heirloom (not fully established yet)	High temperature heat 2210-1640 kWh_thand 220 kWh_e	Modelling (McQueen, 2020)

Main R&D trends in DAC

This appendix gives an overview of key current research and development trends in DAC.

Innovation Map

A variety of sources including publications in journals and industry consultations were used to develop a map of trends in research and development in the DAC space. These emerging technologies and methods are presented in the subsequent sections. An overview of the key R&D areas for processes and materials is provided at the start in Figure 12.1, mapping the R&D sectors to technologies and companies.

Figure 12.1: Trends in DAC Research and Development

Air contactors

Air contactors are the section of the system where air is passed through or across the liquid or solid sorbent capture material. Around 20% of the energy demand for DAC is used in this phase, largely as electrical energy for fans and pumps. (McQueen et al., 2021). The main energy demand is overcoming the pressure drop resulting from the input air meeting resistance from components of the system such as the filters. The air pressure needs to be kept high to maintain the concentration of CO₂and therefore the efficiency of the carbon capture.

Cost contribution to DAC

Air contactor’s contribution to the system capex and overall cost depends on the type of DAC. The Hanson et al. report from 2021 gives the cost of an air contactor for solid DAC of $13 million to $84 million ($1–$8 per tonne of CO₂removed), for liquid DAC the numbers are less clear but with projected capex values post innovation in the region of $200-$400 million and an ambitious minimum of $30-$60 per tCO₂, a clear issue when trying to get to total costs of $100/tCO₂ (Ozkan, 2022) (Hanson et al., 2021)

Air contactors

With air contactors being such a large cost in liquid DAC, it makes sense that air contactors are a key R&D area for Carbon Engineering. Carbon Engineering highlighted two main areas of development for contactors: reducing capex costs of the contactors and adapting the geometry of the contactors to increase the contact area between the incoming air and the capture agent, thereby increasing capture efficiency. Much of this contactor optimisation work has been done through computational modelling, with a move away from conventional packed columns where the air had to be forced through, resulting in large pressure drops, to structures that better accommodate air flow minimising resistance while providing a large surface area for CO₂capture e.g. thin, flat sorbent sheets, monoliths, or cooling towers-like scrubbers (Climeworks, 2023). These approaches are being developed in both liquid DAC and solid DAC, reducing electricity demand and increasing capture efficiency.

Passive air contactors

Another area of research is having passive air contactors, where wind or natural airflow drive the interaction between the air and capture material. There is a trade-off here with the capex reduction (up to 25% of the cost of capture) and energy demand reduction versus the reduced capture efficiency and increased capture time (Third Derivative, 2021). There are a number process-based or place-based factors that would make passive air contactors more attractive:

Sorbents with a high capture efficiency and low cost
Locations with lots of space and naturally strong airflow/windspeeds
Locations where airflow is already accelerated, e.g. cooling towers (Noya, 2024)
Locations with high electricity prices.

A number of startups are investigating this option including Heirloom, Carbon Collect, Infinitree, and Noya. Heirloom have reported that they have reduced the time taken for carbonation of their material from an industry standard of 2 weeks down to 2.5 days. It is not entirely clear how the acceleration was achieved but they are using thin layers spread over multiple levels to maximise contact area while minimising land use. The passive approach means that the air contactors need only <0.05 GJ/tCO₂(~14 kWh/tCO₂), compared to upwards of 0.5-1 GJ/tCO₂for other approaches (around 140-280 kWh/tCO₂). (Heirloom, 2022; Third Derivative, 2021)

In 2022, BEIS awarded the Dutch start-up CO2CirculAir B.V. £3 million for their SMART-DAC project, which utilises wind circulation to drive the CO₂capturing process, as opposed to relying on fans, thereby eliminating energy costs associated with forced air movement (Anon., 2022) The funding was allocated towards the construction of a pilot plant in Larne, Northern Ireland, at the B9 Energy Storage offices. Testing was set to begin in spring 2023, with the facility expected to capture at least 100 tonnes of CO₂ per year, however as of March 2025, according to the company’s website, the project is still under construction (Anon., n.d.).

Sorbents and solvents

Sorbents and solvents are the materials that capture the CO₂, either by being absorbed into the solvent in liquid DAC or adsorbing onto the material surface in solid DAC. Solvents and sorbents are a major area of research in DAC, the ideal capture material would be highly efficient at capturing CO₂, doing so quickly and selectively but also giving up the CO₂readily with a small change in temperature or pressure, therefore reducing the energy requirements for generation. For the DAC industry, the ideal capture material would also be low cost, easy to produce at scale and be stable throughout thousands of cycles. There is an additional consideration that some materials work better in humid conditions, while some are much worse in humid conditions; this will affect which materials are best suited to which countries/climates and use cases. A summary of potential improvements is given in Table 12.2 with more detail below with the filled cells indicating the advantages of each material.

Table 12.2: Summary of potential improvements in DAC solvents and sorbents, the filled cells highlight the advantages of each material for DAC.

Topic area	Improvement	Capture efficiency	Capture selectivity	Regeneration temperature/energy	Longevity	Scalable	Cost	Climate optimisation
Solid DAC	Amine-functionalised sorbents
	Zeolites
	MOFs
	Solid alkali carbonates
	Silica gel
	Calcium ambient weathering
Liquid DAC	Alternative liquid sorbents: alkanolamine, alkylamines, and ionic liquids

New Amine Functionalised Adsorbents

The development of new amine functionalised sorbents used in solid DAC methods such as the ones used by Climeworks and Global Thermostat have the potential to reduce the energy demand of regeneration and to improve the number of cycles the sorbent can undergo before degeneration (Wang, 2024). Sorbent lifetime ranges in estimates from 0.25 – 5 years (McQueen et al., 2021).The Climeworks process uses 7.5 kg of sorbent per tonne of CO₂captured with the target of reducing this to 3 kg (Duetz, 2021).

Metal-Organic Frameworks

These physisorbent materials have a porous structure with a high surface area and tuneable properties (Wang, 2024). Tunability means that the material can be more selective to capturing CO₂, as opposed to capturing other molecules like water, an issue particularly in more humid climates (Sodiq, 2022). Climeworks are working with co-producer Svante to create novel air contactors containing MOFs with very high surface areas and lower operational costs. In a recent development, a team at Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, Switzerland (EPFL) have developed a new MOF which prevents the CO₂/water competition, selectively capturing CO₂in wet environments (Sodiq, 2022). In one experiment the energy required for regeneration was comparable to established approaches, using 1,600 kWh_thfor MOF regeneration.

Zeolites

Zeolites have a similar structure to metal organic frameworks and when tuned appropriately, provide efficient and selective adsorption/desorption of CO₂in low concentrations due to a number of zeolite intrinsic properties; pore architecture, low price, crystal size and chemical composition (Sodiq, 2022; Siriwardane, 2001; Zukal, 2010). However, selectivity of CO₂is poor in humid air and the materials degrade through the cycles meaning more research is needed before moving from laboratory scale to industrial scale (Mukherjee, 2019).

Silica Gel

Silica gel materials are also of interest to overcome the issue of absorbing water rather than CO₂. Recently, commercially available silica gels of different pore sizes were grafted onto a triamine to investigate the CO₂capture performance (Anyanwu, 2020). The grafting process was completed in both dry and wet conditions to assess the effects of moisture on the sorbent’s CO₂uptake capacity. The capacity of silica gel to capture CO₂improved by 40% indicating the potential suitability of Silica Gel-based DAC methods for humid climates (Kwon, 2019).

Regeneration Process

Crystallisation

Crystallisation is a potential alternative DAC method that offers low-cost CO₂separation from sorbents with minimal chemical and energy inputs. This method has been the subject of several research papers, one example uses aqueous guanidine sorbent (PyBIG) to capture CO₂from the atmosphere, binding it as crystalline carbonate salts which are subsequently separated by filtration and heated to 80-120°C to release the bound CO₂and regenerate the sorbent, requiring 1410 kWh_th (Seipp, 2017). Other studies have used the same method and alternative sorbents with similar results (Brethomé, 2018). Research is currently limited to laboratory scale with overall energy requirements still higher than the optimised Carbon Engineering method (Sodiq, 2022).

Electrochemical methods

These methods are an active area of research and being developed by companies such as Verdox and Mission Zero Technologies (Voskian, 2019) The key advantage of electrochemical methods is that they use only electrical energy, there is no heat requirement. The electrical-only method is appealing for places where the greenest and cheapest energy sources are electric, as opposed to somewhere like Iceland that has cheap geothermal heat.

Electrochemical methods could offer highly efficient and modular solutions for DAC, suitable for various scales of deployment. An electro-swing method being developed at the Massachusetts institute of Technology (MIT) uses specially designed electrodes to capture CO₂through CO₂’s electrochemistry (Advanced Science News, 2021). The method has shown promising results, working at ambient conditions with low energy requirements of 570 kWh_e per tonne of CO₂captured. However, the process required CO₂concentrations higher than the 400ppm found in atmosphere (6,000 – 100,000) as well as reporting a capacity loss of 30% after 7,000 cycles. Both of these factors have currently limited deployment to laboratory scale (Advanced Science News, 2021).

Moisture Swing

Another active area of research companies such as Carbon Collect and Avnos are exploring moisture-swing adsorption processes using ion exchange resins. These systems capture CO₂efficiently in dry conditions and avoid the need for high energy consumption or a vacuum (Wang, 2024) (Xie, 2024). One recent study estimated a regeneration energy requirement of 377 kWh_th per tonne of CO₂captured, but acknowledged this did not take into account the precooling process or differences in efficiency at scale (Xie, 2024). The method is suitable for low-purity CO₂applications like agricultural greenhouses. The method performs poorly in humid conditions and is limited to deployment in arid environments; research is ongoing to improve efficiency.

Integration with waste heat

Solid DAC and liquid DAC both use heat to remove the CO₂and regenerate the capture material. Approximately 80% of the overall energy demand for both types of DAC is thermal energy, which offers opportunities for using waste heat from other sources (Ge, 2024). The opportunity to use waste heat for DAC was discussed in some of the interviews with industry experts in this study. EMEC highlighted that green hydrogen production and e-fuel production both generate waste heat and are technologies that would make sense to develop alongside and co-locate with DAC.

There are a number of considerations for waste heat incorporation with DAC:

Amount of waste heat, e.g. in GWh
Temperature of waste heat
Concentration, e.g. at a single location or dispersed
Cost, including the cost of transporting or concentrating the heat
Accessibility, also linked to cost
Consistency of supply, within a day or year but also over the lifetime of the plant
Competing demands for the heat
Carbon intensity of the heat

A 2020 report by BRE for CXC considered sources of waste heat in Scotland, split by low-grade and medium-grade sources as summarised in Figure 12.2. These medium-grade sources would be suitable for solid DAC and low-grade sources could be upgraded via heat pumps. Dispersed sources such as supermarkets and bakeries are unlikely to be attractive for DAC due to size and are more likely to be attractive for district heating systems. Instead, waste heat sources that are more isolated and that DAC could be incorporated with from the start or the project (as opposed to retrofitted on to) would be attractive, examples being nuclear energy, green hydrogen electrolysis and e-fuel production.

Figure 12.2: Examples of waste heat sources in Scotland identified in report for ClimateXChange looking into waste heat sources in Scotland (Building Research Establishment, 2020).

Research trends

Research trends relevant to integration with waste heat:

Lower temperature sorbent materials: if the temperatures required for regeneration can be reduced, then waste heat can supply a larger portion of the thermal energy demand
Modular units: while not the key driver for making DAC modular, making units small, scalable and easy to integrate with other processes would allow DAC units to take advantage of dispersed sources of waste heat

Integration with renewable energy

DAC needs clean, low-cost energy with a high load factor. Climeworks has largely deployed in Iceland due to the cheap heat and electricity provided by geothermal energy. Carbon Engineering are deploying in Texas, where there is inexpensive and plentiful renewable energy plus cheap natural gas. Locations with continuous sources of renewable energy, such as geothermal or hydro are particularly appealing, but integration with wind energy is likely to be more relevant for Scotland.

As a rule of thumb, DAC only has ‘relevant’ amounts of negative emissions if renewable energy provides 80% of the energy supplied through the grid (AGU, 2018). Scotland’s electricity grid is around 60% renewables in terms of energy used but with a lot of renewable energy being distributed to other parts of the UK (Scottish Energy Statistics Hub, 2024). Using curtailed energy is attractive for many purposes, but it is hard to make DAC economical with current capex costs if the system is only used part of the time. A 2018 report stated that either DAC capex costs would have to come down 10-fold or carbon prices go up 10-fold to make running DAC on curtailed energy viable (AGU, 2018). While running purely on curtailed energy is never likely to be economically appealing, running only when the grid is at above 80% renewables could be. This sensitivity will be investigated in the modelling phase of this study.

Research trends

Research trends relevant to integration with renewable energy:

Lower temperature sorbent materials: if the temperatures required for regeneration can be reduced, then heat pumps are able to supply the energy more efficiently making integration with renewable energy more efficient
Electrochemical DAC: requires only electrical energy rather than thermal energy
Understanding local environmental impacts: maritime environments are hard on components, understanding which components are most affected and limit the life of the system is a part of the ongoing learnings from current deployments
Energy storage: incorporating energy storage would allow for higher load factors and better use of cheaper renewable energy but would also increase the capex costs
Tidal energy: EMEC brought forward the idea of pairing DAC with tidal energy, due to the periodic nature of tidal energy generation and the cycling nature of solid DAC, especially interesting as EMEC and Orkney are a key centre for tidal energy.

Learnings from deployment

Both Climeworks and Carbon Engineering stated that learning from deployments was their main focus for R&D and where they see the most progress coming from. Climeworks said they are adapting their testing facilities to be more ‘real-life’ and saw the main improvements coming from “better sorbents, better structuring better design of the plant”.

Climeworks posted a very open article on their website titled “The reality of deploying carbon removal via direct air capture in the field” that described and quantified many of the issues they had encountered in the first two years that the Orca plant was operating. (Climeworks, 2024) Many of these learnings were issues that caused the plant to underperform (e.g. 20% quality fluctuations in the sorbent material, recovery losses of 30% of the captured CO₂) but saw the main cost reductions being in applying lessons learned from current deployments such as adaption for local weather conditions.

Understudied areas for R&D in DAC

Three key areas of that emerged as understudied areas for DAC are

Integration with waste heat: currently limited to an extent by a lack of information sharing between commercial parties but the opportunities may become more obvious as the technology matures and progress becomes steadier
Impact of local conditions: with relatively few deployments in place already, the impact of local conditions is not yet fully understood. Elements of local conditions could be climatic (largely temperature and humidity) and impacts of pollution (contamination of filters, degradation of components). These will affect costs and efficiencies, but also which technologies are best suited to which environments. For example, electrochemical DAC is less mature than other DAC technologies but is attractive in Scotland because it runs purely off electricity rather than heat. Different DAC technologies will be better suited to different locations and sensitive to different parameters, research will be needed for optimisation, aided by modelling.

Limiting factors in DAC deployments

This section gives more detail on the key limiting factors in DAC technology and projects. Limiting factors that affect the cost and profitability of a plant but also the rate at which a DAC plant or plants could be deployed beyond purely financial limitations.

Energy demand and cost

From discussion with industry, the key limiting factor for deployment and the key factor in deciding location was cost of energy. The UK is seen as an expensive place for energy compared to the likes of Iceland or Texas where DAC is being deployed. The impact of energy costs will be a key part of the scenarios investigated in the modelling phase. The UK Green Book projects industrial electricity costs in the central scenario to go from 18 p/kWh down to 11 p/kWh over the next decade,^[11] electricity prices in Iceland are not only lower, in the region of 56 p/kWh but also much more consistent (Statistics Iceland, 2022; DESNZ, 2024).

In terms of the scale of the energy demand, a 0.5 Mt plant would require around 1 TWh of energy per year, based on a value of 2 MWh/tCO₂ (IEA, 2024). For context, in 2023, Scotland generated just over 33 TWh of renewable electricity; 1 TWh is roughly equivalent to energy demand of homes in Dundee (Scottish Government, 2024). The energy demand for DAC is around 20% electrical energy and 80% thermal energy. With solid DAC, that 80% thermal energy can be provided by heat pumps, bringing the overall energy demand down. Assuming a heat pump COP of 2, considering the high temperatures needed, the overall energy demand could be brought down to 0.6 TWh. If that 0.6 TWh of energy demand is assumed to be spread evenly across the year (i.e. a load factor of 1), then the connection size required for a 0.5 Mt DAC plant would be in the region of 68 MW. This 68 MW value is equivalent to other large industrial connections or a data centre.

Demand for CO₂

Interviewees generally noted that the other key factor holding back DAC deployment was a lack of long-term demand or a clear carbon market. This market can be either:

Carbon removals/storage
Using non-fossil carbon for application or manufacture of existing products or services, e.g. food and drinks, fertiliser
Using non-fossil carbon for new products or services such as e-fuels or low-carbon chemicals

DAC projects selling CO₂removals (carbon offset credits) are reliant on government policy incentives (e.g. USA’s Inflation Reduction Act), or via off-take agreements on the Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM). The VCM is composed of organisations or individuals buying carbon credits for the purposes of offsetting their emissions, this market can be volatile and is unlikely to scale to size that is meaningful in reducing global emissions due to its voluntary nature. Government mandates and regulation on removals could provide the long-term security for investors in DAC that is not offered by the VCM. The UK Government announced in its 2021 Net Zero Strategy an ambition for 5 MtCO₂of removals by 2030 and 23 MtCO₂by 2035, but this is not yet been backed by a mandate, and this could be met by other removal technologies than DAC (e.g. BECCS) (BEIS, 2021).

It was also noted that in jurisdictions where there are helpful policies in place, those policies often come with restrictions that all activities have to take place within the boundary of that jurisdiction. Large scale deployment will need policies that generate demand across a lot of jurisdictions and allow providers to function in an open market.

The market for captured CO₂as a feedstock in the chemical industry appears to be very immature, with very little information available.

SAF Mandates

SAF mandates were discussed widely in the interviews with attention drawn to differences between the UK and EU SAF (ReFuelEU) mandates where the EU mandate is explicit about where the CO₂in SAF comes from, whereas the UK mandate does not make a distinction. The expectation is that the EU mandate will phase out fossil-based CO₂over time, for other jurisdictions there is lower confidence about if and when fossil CO₂will be phased out. The UK has announced an intention to bring in a specific requirement for DAC within the SAF mandate in future.

Emissions Trading Scheme

The Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) offers a mechanism for DAC to become financially attractive, especially in terms of capture and storage but only if DAC is recognised within the ETS system or the penalty price becomes comparable to the cost of DAC. The question of how greenhouse gas removal (GGR) systems should be integrated into the UK ETS system is currently being consulted on (closed 15^th August 2024). There is concern that integration of removals in the ETS scheme could reduce efforts to reduce emissions (Department for Energy Security & Net Zero, 2023). The carbon price in 2025 is around £90 (~$120), with gradual but uneven increase out to 2050. These carbon values are at the low end of projections for the cost of capture for DAC, as the carbon price increases towards a maximum of £170, (~$220), it gets closer to the potential range of DAC costs.

To incentivise emitters to pay for DAC or DACCS, the more appropriate price comparison would be the buyout price: how much organisations are charged for every tonne of carbon they emit that they do not have carbon credits for. Currently, the buyout price for CO₂in the UK is £100/tCO₂, not much above the carbon price and far below the price that would incentivise DAC use to offset emissions (ICAP, 2022). The names of companies that exceed their emissions allowance are also published, an incentive to comply for companies with a public profile.

Figure 12.3: Projected values for the UK carbon prices used for modelling purposes (Department for Energy Security & Net Zero, 2023).

Planning restrictions

Planning restrictions relevant to DAC are largely around land use and visual impact but the time taken to get planning permission was viewed as an obstacle for DAC projects, mostly because of how long the process can take. A 0.5 Mt DAC plant would be considered a major development; the average planning time for major development projects in Scotland in 2023/24 ranged widely from 22 weeks for projects with processing agreements compared to 53 weeks for those without (Scottish Government, 2024). This difference highlights the advantage of planning agreements and working with the Scottish Government and local authorities. These planning times have been gradually coming down over the last few years and the Scottish Government was praised in some of the engagements within this study for being more dynamic and working with companies to progress projects.

Impact of delays

The cost of delays depends heavily on what stage of the project the delay occurs: a delay at the start of the project has a smaller impact than at the end of the project where there are higher running costs, e.g. staff hired, money borrowed. A very rough rule of thumb is that delays cost 1-2% of the project costs per month. Planning delays can easily run into months, even years. Taking the lower end of those delay costs, 1% per month, is 12% additional costs for a year delay.

Perhaps the most impactful element of planning restrictions is confidence: a country or region known to have a very strict, complex or slow planning process is not attractive for DAC deployment where R&D is still happening at pace, and it may be difficult to give full details of what a plant will look like at the start of the process. Focusing early DAC deployment at existing industrial sites may be helpful in terms of space, grid capacity and minimising visual impacts, as would a flexible planning process with open dialogue with decision makers.

Geographical requirements

Location

The main geographical requirements for DAC are:

Near or connected to low cost, low carbon electricity with a high load factor
Near transport, storage or usage of CO2

During our expert interviews, a rule of thumb was discussed for liquid DAC that if a country was a net importer of natural gas, it is unlikely to be good candidate for liquid DAC. The UK has been a net importer of gas since 2004, indicating that Scotland could be more suitable for solid DAC (Lennon, 2024). Green hydrogen could be used instead of natural gas, but it is unlikely that this would be economical or the best use of green hydrogen. These costs can be investigated in the modelling phase.

Climate

An additional geographical consideration is climate. Most deployments so far have been in Europe or North America, Climeworks have currently deployed in Iceland and Switzerland and are learning how climate impacts their process. Based on learning from those locations, Scotland becomes a more attractive location than places like the Middle East or North Africa where the processes would need to be re-optimised for the climate, especially while deployments are being developed and scaled up.

Model-based research has indicated that cold (<18°C average temperature) and dry (<65% relative humidity) climates are most ideal for DAC. The UK is classified is cold and humid, along with much of Europe and parts of North America. Cold climates, dry or humid, were found to be most favourable climate-wise for DAC but lower energy prices in hotter places (e.g. Middle East, North Africa) compensate for this. This research is based on current, or at least recent, data published on the processes and materials used for DAC and adaption of materials and processes would allow optimisation for different climates, e.g. favouring more selective sorbents in humid regions to avoid capturing water instead of CO₂ (Sendi, 2022).

Land area

The land use requirements for solid DAC plants and liquid DAC plants are very similar, 0.4 km² and 0.5 km² at a million tonne scale plant respectively (World Resources Institute, n.d.). For comparison, the land area needed for a forest to capture a megaton of CO₂is 860 km². These values for the land use of DAC plants do not account for land area required for energy generation.

Transport and storage

Transport and storage of CO₂has been highlighted as a limiting factor both interviews, particularly in the short term. As the DAC industry matures, transport and storage is expected to become less of an issue as transport is optimised and large-scale storage infrastructure is established. Carbon Engineering noted that a key advantage of their site in Texas is that it is placed directly above large CO₂storage reserves. Pipelines and plans for CO₂storage are already in development.

Currently, CO₂is transported mainly by lorries, a limiting factor both in terms of reducing cost and achieving scale of transport and storage. This limiting factor is mirrored on the demand side for the likes of e-fuel manufacturers who will likely need onsite generation to meet CO₂demands as they scale up.

Ambitions for CO₂ storage

The UK Government announced two sets of projects, Track-1 and Track-2 clusters, with an ambition to capture 20-30 Mt CO₂per year (Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, 2023). The Acorn project in the North Sea is within Track-2 and is part of an ambition to capture 510 Mtpa CO₂ (Acorn, 2024). The Acorn project will repurpose existing gas processing and transporting facilities to permanently store CO₂under the North Sea (Scottish Government, n.d.). The Acorn project initially had an ambition to be delivering CCS by the mid-2020s, and storing 56 Mtpa by 2030, but a more recent press report from mid-2024 refers to support from the Scottish Government to “make the Scottish Cluster a reality” indicating a much lower confidence level on the timeline of delivery (Acorn, 2021; Acorn, 2024).

Supply-chain requirements

Supply chain requirements and limitations were discussed with stakeholders and investigated in previous work by City Science. The most likely material to cause a potential bottleneck in the DAC supply chain is amine sorbents, the carbon capturing material in solid DAC technology (McQueen et al., 2021). The bottleneck would occur due to DAC requiring large volumes compared to current production levels as opposed to any issue with a particular material or feedstock, although there are some processing issues as exposure to the precursor chemicals is harmful. These amine-based sorbents are currently produced in small volumes mainly for pharmaceutical applications, there may need to be development of a large-scale synthesis process that could take time to optimise (Coherent Market Insight , 2023). Part of the issue with sorbents such as PEI is that it degrades through the cycles and needs to be replaced or topped up, meaning the demand is ongoing rather than just when the plant is being set up. Improvements to the longevity and alternative materials are active areas of research (Sodiq, 2022). Early engagement with the industry to understand the scale of demand could mitigate some of these issues.

Previous work City Science has carried out has highlighted that material supply of generic materials was not likely to be a limiting factor in DAC supply. The three materials main materials considered were steel, concrete and aluminium. Within the stakeholder engagements as part of this study, no organisation has specifically stated material availability as a key limiting factor in their scale up although materials were mentioned as generic issues encountered during scale up.

In terms of equipment, many components already have very mature supply chains, especially from the oil and gas industry. Some interviewees said that the small size of the DAC industry compared to these suppliers’ usual industries has taken some getting used to for supply chains. Interviewees also discussed learning from deployments where compromises could be made with respect to supply chains and materials e.g. cost versus quality and longevity.

Commercial sensitivity and maturity

A limiting factor that came out of our discussions with industry experts was commercial sensitivity and maturity. One aspect is that there are so many DAC start-ups, each with a slightly different approach or process and each protecting their own commercial interests. The variety of processes and the lack of detailed process information makes it hard for potential backers or partners to pick a technology or company. EMEC was highlighted as a major draw in Scotland and a mechanism for overcoming some of these commercial sensitivity issues due to the expertise, potential for partnerships and involvement in demonstration activities.

Additional details on DAC cost modelling

The cost model used in this study is based on method used by Young et al. (Young, 2023). This approach uses cost data from early-stage DAC plants and applies then projects cost reductions based on learning rates as global deployment increases. The cost model uses an initial plant, the FOAK, then applies learning rates at each doubling of global capacity.^[12]

The FOAK size used for the solid technology was 4 ktCO₂, based on the Climeworks Orca plant. The FOAK size used for the liquid technology was 500 ktCO₂ capacity, based on the STRATOS plant under construction, using Carbon Engineering technology. The FOAK cost is then projected over a level of deployment (i.e. over a number of doublings of capacity) to produce the NOAK cost.

The cost components of the ‘FOAK Outputs’ and ‘NOAK Outputs’ are then used to determine a cost of DAC, which is a levelised cost per tonne of CO₂ evaluated over the lifetime of the plant. Equation 1 below demonstrates how the NUAC is calculated.

Equation 1

The CRF is the capital recovery factor, used to calculate the payback on financing required for the plant capex. Annual capex payments are calculated by multiplying the capex by the CRF. The CRF is based on both the cost of capital (i) and the plant lifetime (n) as shown in Equation 2. The cost of capital was set at 3.5% in the central case, consistent with a social discounting rate, and a value of 10% used in the sensitivity analysis to represent a more commercial weighted average cost of capital (WACC) (UK Government, 2021; DESNZ, 2024).

Equation 2

Three types of cost of DAC can been calculated, depending on the scope of emissions accounted for, and whether costs of transportation and storage are included:

Levelised cost of DAC (LCOD) (gross captured): NPV of abatement determined on the amount of CO₂ physically captured by the DAC plant.
Levelised cost of removal (LCOR)NUAC (net captured): NPV of abatement determined on the amount of CO₂ physically captured by the DAC plant, minus any Scope 1 and 2 emissions, to derive a net abatement.
Levelised cost of storage (net stored): Uses the net captured abatement. Includes the costs of transport and storage of CO₂.

It is the NUAC net captured value that has been used in this study, also called the levelised cost of removal (LCOR). This definition accounts for the CO₂ produced via scope 1 and scope 2 emissions, i.e. the emissions associated with the energy used to run the DAC plant.

A 2-year build period has been assumed for the costing (for both technologies), with the CAPEX spread equally across the first two years. There is no CO₂ capture in these first two years as the plant is not yet operational; after the two-year build period, the annual costs (energy and non-energy OPEX) are modelled for each year, as well as the CO₂ capture. The total length of the analysis period is therefore plant lifetime plus two years.

Range of projected SAF values

There is significant uncertainty in the projected cost of e-SAF driven by large uncertainty in several key contributing factors to the overall cost such as energy prices, the cost of green hydrogen and the cost of DAC. The Sustainable Aviation Fuel Mandate Final Stage Cost Benefit Analysis presents a range of SAF costs illustrating this uncertainty that had to be considered in setting the buyout price for SAF and e-SAF, shown in Figure 12.4 (Department for Transport, 2024b). The projected ranges for PTL, that we have referred to as e-SAF in this report, span a range of thousands of pounds, hence the focus in this study on understanding what the key factors are that will dictate where costs lie within this range.

Figure 12.4: Range of costs for various sustainable aviation fuel types presented as part of the analysis for the UK SAF mandate (Department for Transport, 2024b).

International Energy Data

A summary of the energy data used in the international comparison is provided in Table 12.3. The number of sources used has been minimised where possible to avoid differences in the assumptions and methods used to derive these figures. To account for the recent increase in energy prices due to a rise in global conflict, energy data from 2021 was used as this represents the most recent data unaffected by this increase.

Table 12.3: A summary of the cost and carbon of fuels used in the international comparison

Location	Natural Gas Cost £/MWh	Electricity Cost £/MWh (Climatescope, 2024)	Carbon Intensity of Electricity gCO₂/kWh (Electricity Map, 2024)
Scotland (United Kingdom) (2024)	49 (DESNZ, 2024)	187	213
Scotland (United Kingdom) (2040)	49 (DESNZ, 2024)	187	6
Texas	13 (U.S EIA, 2024)	57	389
Canada	15 (Statistica, 2024)	60	72
Australia	30 (Australian Energy Regulator, 20224)	148	428
Germany	28 (Statistica, 2024)	187	372
Iceland	(No imports)	49	28
Chile	17 (LPG Price monitoring agency, 2024)	139	272
Brazil	32 (Argus, 2023)	110	90
Oman	10 (indexmundi, 2024)	51	471
Denmark	25 (Statistica, 2024)	257	132
Sweden	41 (Statistica, 2024)	88	25
Norway	(Negligible use)	105	30
Netherlands	29 (Statistica, 2024)	73	284
France	34 (Statistica, 2024)	176	53

Comparison to IEA

The International Energy Agency report on DAC provides in-depth analysis, including operating conditions and cost estimates, the LCOD is shown alongside cost estimates from our modelling in Figure 12.5. Using IEA energy prices, estimates of the cost of DAC are similar between the model used in this study and the values reported by the IEA. The IEA report does not include the deployment year within the modelling assumptions however the IEA cost of DAC falls within the range of 2040 to 2050 cost estimates.

Figure 12.5: Comparison to IEA estimates of the cost of solid and liquid DAC

Waste Heat

Hydrogen Production via Electrolysis

Hydrogen production operates at temperatures ranging from 60°C-80°C (Koumparakis, 2025) Assuming a heat exchanger with an approach temperature of 10°C is used, the waste heat can provide heating up to 70°C.

The solid DAC reference scenario used heat pump with a coefficient of performance (COP) of 2 to provide heating up to 100°C. With the hydrogen electrolysis process providing heating up to 70°C, manufacturing tables for heat pumps estimate a heat pump operating between 70°C – 90°C (i.e. a delta T of 20°C) would perform with a COP of 4.4 (Sabroe, 2023). A conservative COP of 4 has been used for the purposes of this modelling. The use of waste heat and a high performing heat pump has significantly reduced the LCOD by 26%.

The liquid DAC reference scenario used natural gas as the heating fuel. Using waste heat supplied at 70°C, natural gas would still need to be used to provide heating from 70°C – 850°C. As a result, the benefits are small, only reducing the LCOD by 2%. It is also unclear how the waste heat could be provided in practice for a liquid DAC system.

The supply the waste heat demand for a 0.5 Mt DAC plant, the scale of the hydrogen electrolysis plant needed was estimated at 34 kt/year for solid DAC and 3 kt/year for liquid DAC, with calculations shown in Table 12.4. This assumes a heat loss from the hydrogen electrolysis process of 26% (Mostafa El-Shafie, 2023) and an electricity use of 54 kWh/kg hydrogen. The scale of the hydrogen plant is small relative to the energy demands of Scotland, 34kt of hydrogen capacity could supply 1% of Scotland’s total energy demand, or 3% of the transport sector’s energy demand (Scottish Government, 2024).

Table 12.4: Estimating the size of hydrogen electrolysis plant needed to provide the thermal energy of the DAC process.

	Solid	Liquid
DAC Capacity, Mt CO₂	0.5	0.5
Thermal Energy Use, MWh/tCO₂	1.5	1.46
% of Energy Supplied by Waste Heat	63%	6%
Waste Heat Supplied, MWh/tCO₂	1.5	0.09
Electrical Energy Used, GWh	33.8	3.2
Hydrogen Production Capacity, kt	34	3

Energy from Waste

Energy from waste (EfW) incinerators burn waste at high temperatures, generating electricity from the exhaust gases produced, a simple process flow diagram is shown in Figure 12.6. Integrating the EfW process with either solid or liquid DAC requires the diversion of heat from electricity production to the DAC process, the simplest configuration of which is also shown in Figure 12.6. Using heat directly rather than for electricity is significantly more efficient, ranging from 500 – 800% (Z factor 5 – 8). (Triple Point Heat Networks, 2024)

Figure 12.6: An example configuration of how a DAC process may utilise heat from an energy from waste process.

An energy balance of the thermal energy required from the EfW process, and the corresponding loss of power production is shown in Table 12.5. Across Scotland municipal waste EfW facilities range from 10 – 45 MW but are typically 10-15 MW. If a 0.5 Mt DAC process were to have all thermal energy requirements supplied by an EfW this would significantly reduce power production. However, this would not be viable as part of a typical EfW commercial model and has not been included as a potential waste heat source.

Table 12.5: Estimating the size of EfW plant needed to provide the thermal energy of the DAC process.

	Solid	Liquid
DAC Capacity, Mt	0.5	0.5
Thermal Energy Use, MWh/tCO₂	1.46	1.50
Total Thermal Energy Use, MWh	750,000	730,000
Energy supplied by EfW, MWh	750,000	730,000
Thermal Power Supplied, MW	85.6	83.3
Reduction in Electrical Output, MW	12.2	11.9

E-fuel production

Further detail on e-fuel production

E-fuel production via the Fisher-Tropsch (FT) Process

This section provides some additional insight into the products from the FT process and the relative amounts of each produced. The reaction typically operates at temperatures ranging from 200-240°C, and requires a metal catalyst (Speight, 2016). The type of catalyst used will lead to selectivity towards different products. This means that the reaction can be tuned to favour specific hydrocarbon fractions, i.e. short chain hydrocarbons C₁ to C₅ through to much longer oils and waxes, C₂₅+, as demonstrated in Figure 12.8. When optimised for synthetic sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF), the kerosene portion can account for 60% of the output as demonstrated in Figure 12.7 (Wentrup, 2022). Figure 12.8 shows some percentage breakdowns for reported processes.

Figure 12.67: Illustrative figure of outputs from the Fischer-Tropsch process, showing the relative amounts of different lengths of hydrocarbons created. (Bharti, 2021)

Figure 12.812.7: Percentage outputs of hydrocarbons for various FT processes (Fasihi, 2016).

The FT process is energy-intensive, with significant heat generation. The waste heat from FT synthesis can be utilised to support DAC operations. Assuming a heat exchanger with an approach temperature of 10°C, the available heat can provide heating up to 230°C, meeting 100% of the thermal energy requirements for solid DAC and 25% for liquid DAC. Table 12.6 shows that the estimated e-fuel production scale required to satisfy this waste heat demand is 583 kt for solid DAC and 144 kt for liquid DAC, assuming a heat loss of 1.29 MWh per tonne of e-fuel (Marchese, 2020).

Table 12.6: Estimating the size of E-fuel plant needed to provide the thermal energy of the DAC process.

	Solid	Liquid
DAC Capacity, Mt	0.5	0.5
Thermal Energy Use, MWh/tCO₂	1.50	1.46
% of Energy Supplied by Waste Heat	100%	25%
Waste Heat Supplied, MWh/tCO₂	1.50	0.37
E-fuel Production Capacity, kt	583	144

Key assumptions for the Fisher-Tropsch process within this study are given in Table 12.7.

Table 12.7: Key assumptions for e-fuel production in this study.

Metric	Value	Source(s)
CO₂ per tonne e-fuel	3.2	Industry discussion, consistent with literature sources (Rojas-Michaga, 2023; Delgado, 2023).
Portion of FT output that is e-fuel	60%-75%	Industry discussion, consistent with literature sources (Wentrup, 2022; Mazurova, 2023).

Uncertainty in e-fuel production costs

This section gives an overview of some of the uncertainties in e-fuel production costs from key sources for this report.

The cost of e-fuel production is dependent on four key variables:

Cost of electricity
Cost of green hydrogen
Cost of CO₂
Cost of e-fuel equipment capex

The future cost of all four of these key variables are highly uncertain. Research by Rojas-Michaga et al. models the contributing factors to e-fuel production cost and the associated uncertainties. Figure 12.9 shows the results of a simulation investigating the potential combinations of factors illustrating the range of potential costs. The modelling outputs form a bell curve showing the likely range of fuel costs in £/kg; the 95% confidence range is between £2.44/kg and £12.91/kg range. The buyout price for PtL in the UK SAF mandate is set at £5/litre, £6.25/kg which is just to the low side of the peak in Figure 12.9. This buyout price will need to be reviewed over time alongside the required percentage of PtL fuel in UK demand.

Figure 12.9: Uncertainty analysis of e-fuel costs showing the potential range of e-fuel costs in £/kg (Rojas-Michaga, 2023).

Impact of CO₂ costs

The biggest contribution to uncertainty in e-fuel costs is expected to be the cost of hydrogen, both because hydrogen is one of the biggest contributions to the overall cost and because the future cost of hydrogen is very uncertain (ClimateXChange, 2023; Rojas-Michaga, 2023). The two other biggest sensitivities are the cost of electricity and the cost of CO₂ in the form of DAC. Figure 12.10 (from the same paper as Figure 12.9) shows a sensitivity analysis of key metrics on the cost of a tonne of e-fuel.

Figure 12.10 : Sensitivity of e-fuel price to changes in costs of key variables (MJSP = minimum jet fuel selling price) (Rojas-Michaga, 2023).

The values used in the sensitivity analysis are given in Table 12.85 (Rojas-Michaga, 2023) Their analysis gives a cost breakdown of around 30% CO₂, 60% H₂ and 10% for the remaining costs. This CO₂ contribution is much higher than some others due to the assumption that the CO₂ is from DAC. In a fuel cost of £5/litre, non-CO₂ costs are around £3.5/litre, equivalent to £4,375/tonne of e-fuel. These values were used investigate the likely range of e-fuel prices in section 12.1.22 below.

Table 12.85: Values used in sensitivity analysis in research by Rojas-Michaga et. al (Rojas-Michaga, 2023).

Parameter	Low value	Nominal	High value	Unit
CO₂ cost	50	359	1000	£/tonneCO₂
H₂ cost	1	3.09	8	£/kg H₂
Cost of electricity	0.03	0.06	0.09	£/kWh

UK SAF mandate buyout price

Figure 12.11 shows the projected costs for different fuels including PtL from DAC (Department for Transport, 2024b). The calculations project values for e-SAF made using DAC in the central case to be around £4k/t but with best and worst case scenarios of £2.2k/t to £9.1k/t.

Figure 12.11 : Table brought in from analysis as part of developing the UK SAF mandate showing the projected costs for different fuels including PtL from DAC (Department for Transport, 2024b).

UK and EU SAF Mandates

The UK’s Jet Zero strategy sets out the UK Government’s strategy to decarbonise air travel, to be introduced from 1 January 2025, sets out targets for requirements for the use of SAF and e-SAF for the UK aviation sector. (Department for Transport, 2024a) In 2025, 2% of UK jet fuel demand will be required to come from sustainable sources, increasing linearly to 10% in 2030, then to 22% in 2040.^[13] The mandate for e-SAF starts in 2028, reaching 0.5% in 2030 and 3.5% in 2040. For context, the last reported UK energy demands were 2022, when UK aviation fuel demands were around 12 Mtoe, though expected to increase in the short term in the rebound from the pandemic. (Office for National Statistics, 2024) The SAF mandate states there is potential to increase these target percentages if market conditions allow.

The equivalent mandate for the EU, ReFuelEU Aviation, has a less ambitious early timeline, but the ramping of targets is steeper and the EU mandate is more specific about CO₂ sources. The EU mandate targets 2% SAF by 2025 and only 6% by 2030 but the ramping is steeper with a 20% target by 2035 and a 70% target by 2050. (European Commission, 2023; International Trade Administration, 2024) For synthetic fuels, the EU mandate aims for 1.2% in all EU airports from 2030 (equivalent to around 0.7-0.9 Mt), more than double the UK percentage for the same year, and 35% synthetic fuels in all EU airports from 2050. (Green Air, 2025) The EU mandate is also explicit about the source of CO₂ for synthetic fuels removing the option to use fossil-generated CO₂ to make e-fuels from 2041, allowing only biogenic and DAC CO₂, accepting these are the only sources compatible with future climate neutrality.

The UK SAF mandate states that the feedstock for PtL fuels will be DAC or point source carbon (biogenic or fossil fuel) but it is not clear if there are restrictions to be placed on what point sources would be allowed. The mandate does state that waste fossil CO₂ is considered to “have zero lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions up to the point of collection”. (Department for Transport, 2024b, p. 86) The UK mandate recognises that DAC will be the main CO₂ source in the long term but that it is expensive in the short term and they do not want to hinder early development. Recognition that DAC will need to be the main source of CO₂ for PtLs in the long-term is reflected in the buyout price, which has been set based on projected DAC-based PtL costs.

E-fuels for shipping

A 2019 report by Lloyd’s Register and UMAS set out a number of scenarios of the potential future mix of low-carbon shipping fuels: a renewables dominated pathway; a bioenergy dominated pathway, and a mixed pathway. The mixed pathway, shown in Figure 12.812, has been used in the modelling in this study as a central scenario for potential e-fuel demands. Figure 12.13 shows the projected mix of e-fuel for shipping from Transport & Environment’ briefing used to estimate the proportion of carbon-based shipping fuels in future years. (Transport & Environment, 2024)

Figure 12.812: Figure taken from Lloyd’s Register and UMAS report showing projected fuel mix for shipping each decade to 2050 in the equal mix pathway. (Lloyd’s Register, UMAS, 2021)

Figure 12.13: Projected mix of e-fuel for shipping from Transport & Environment’ briefing “E-Fuels observatory for shipping” 2024. (Transport & Environment, 2024)

How to cite this publication:

McQuillen, J., Goodwin, H., Kennedy, E., Li, L. (2025) ‘Cost and profitability of direct air capture in Scotland’, ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5940

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

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Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

For context, the total carbon removal market (carbon removals, as opposed to generic carbon offsets) totalled around 13 MtCO₂ globally by the end of 2024 (cdr.fyi, 2024). ↑
Green Book values for future energy costs are generally used for modelling exercises in studies such as this but there is a lack of confidence in projected energy costs, particularly given volatility in recent years. Therefore, Green Book costs were used as a sensitivity rather than as the central case. ↑
Upstream gas emissions are very difficult to accurate quantify, this uncertainty around quantification limits the confidence in the LCOR of liquid DAC(Cooper, et al., 2022). ↑
This estimation is based on the assumption that 10% of the total planted area utilises enriched CO₂with a rate of 5-10% across the industry (Ecofys, 2017). ↑
In terms of hydrogen production, only green hydrogen makes sense for the production of e-fuels as blue hydrogen would involve splitting methane for the chemical constituents only to recombine them to remake hydrocarbons. ↑
Currently, eligible SAF must be produced from sustainable waste or residue feedstocks, such as used cooking oil, forestry residues, unrecyclable plastics, or derived from renewable or nuclear power. Fuels produced from food, feed, or energy crops are not eligible. Over time, the portion of SAF that can come from certain sources (such as cooking oil) will be reduced. ↑
The targets within the EU SAF mandate for CO₂ from DAC are 10% of the carbon feedstock in 2030, 20% in 2035, 40% in 2040, 80% in 2045 and 100% by 2050. ↑
This 20% premium on production costs would presumably cover interest on financing used plus profit for DAC, e-fuel production and green hydrogen production. ↑
The relevant figures from the Lloyds Register & UMAS report and the Transport & Environment report are shown in Appendix I section 12.1.23 (Figure 12.812 and Figure 12.13) (Lloyd’s Register, UMAS, 2021). ↑
In discussion with industry experts, the issue of regulation around repurposing waste products was raised. Recycling products assigned as waste into marketable products creates issues around certification. Making this process of waste to product easier would require the reduction of regulatory barriers across the recycled aggregates industry. ↑
In the high scenario, costs reach up to 40 p/kWh before coming down to 13 p/kWh over the next decade to 2034; in the low scenario drop down much more quickly and are in the range 10-13 p/kWh to 2034. ↑
This application of learning rates to every doubling of technology is an observed trend of developing technologies, sometimes referred to as Wright’s Law. ↑
Currently, eligible SAF must be produced from sustainable waste or residue feedstocks, such as used cooking oil, forestry residues, unrecyclable plastics, or derived from renewable or nuclear power. Fuels produced from food, feed, or energy crops are not eligible. Over time, the portion of SAF that can come from certain sources (such as cooking oil) will be reduced. ↑

Research completed October 2024

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5798

Executive summary

Aims

Scotland has abundant renewable energy resources that could supply significantly more energy than it consumes. This presents a substantial opportunity for Scotland to become a net exporter of low-carbon energy, boosting employment, supporting economic growth and helping to deliver international decarbonisation.

In our research, we review, assess, and rank the potential of technologies that could enable cost-efficient domestic and international trade of hydrogen, as well its derivatives and products. Hydrogen derivatives are substances that contain hydrogen, manufactured for the purposes of transporting energy and converted back to hydrogen before use (e.g. ammonia). Hydrogen products are anticipated to be used directly, with no need for reconversion (e.g. sustainable aviation fuel). Further, we identify offtake sectors and countries, assess the scale of demand in potential markets, and identify gaps and opportunities in domestic and international policy.

We carried out desk-based research and targeted stakeholder interviews to gather data and review a range of hydrogen derivatives and products.

Findings

Hydrogen and derivative offtake markets

Scotland’s hydrogen potential poses an unprecedented opportunity to strengthen domestic industrial capabilities and cut greenhouse gas emissions. Hydrogen production capacity is anticipated to exceed Scottish demand in the future.
Industrial clusters in Scotland, England and Wales all provide a large local market for hydrogen and its derivatives and products. Existing industrial demand, proximity, and a similar regulatory framework offer key advantages over mainland Europe.
The European Union and its member states are unlikely to meet their low-carbon hydrogen demand on their own, creating an export opportunity for Scotland. Germany and the Netherlands are likely to become the dominant hydrogen offtakers in Europe. But because international trade requires extensive infrastructure and harmonised low-carbon certification frameworks, we identify domestic hydrogen offtake markets as having greater potential.

Hydrogen derivatives

Subsea hydrogen pipelines are critical to enhancing the competitiveness of Scottish hydrogen for trade within Europe. Alternative delivery methods and hydrogen derivatives have substantially higher costs.
Ammonia is expected to be the dominant hydrogen derivative in the medium to long term for global trade. This is due to high technical maturity, relatively high roundtrip efficiency, low production and transport costs, and established global market.

Hydrogen products and end use cases

Industry – including oil and biofuel refining, ammonia, and synthetic fuel production – will be the biggest driver of hydrogen demand in 2030 in both the EU and the UK. By 2045, other sectors like aviation, shipping, power generation are also expected to be major players in the hydrogen economy.
Some end-use sectors, such as chemicals and aviation, will be able to use hydrogen derivatives and products directly, avoiding substantial costs on reconversion. Emerging policies in the UK and in the EU make the market highly attractive to potential hydrogen exporters.
Synthetic methanol will be key to decarbonising existing industrial uses of methanol and in initial low-carbon maritime projects. However, uncertainty around maritime policy and the future availability and cost of biogenic CO₂ remains.
In the long term, hydrogen is also expected to play a significant role in power generation, where it could replace natural gas and other fossil fuels in peaking plants.
Hydrogen-based Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) are well-placed to decarbonise the aviation sector due to compatibility with existing infrastructure, policy support in the UK and Europe, and no commercially viable low-carbon alternatives.
The main low-carbon alternatives to hydrogen include Carbon Capture, Utilisation, and Storage (CCUS) and bio-based technologies.

Recommendations

Stimulate demand by improving alignment – Align the UK and EU Emissions Trading Systems to avoid potential carbon taxes on UK products including maritime fuels. The timely launch of the UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is also critical.
Stimulate demand by supporting trials and demonstration projects – Subsidy schemes, such as the Hydrogen Innovation Scheme, trials and demonstration projects help to create learnings, improve investor certainty and get initial projects off the ground.
Support infrastructure – Support key new-built and repurposed infrastructure projects including a core UK hydrogen network, ports, terminals, hydrogen boilers, refuelling stations and salt cavern storage.
Enhance competitiveness of Scottish hydrogen – To effectively compete with renewable rich regions, Scotland needs to meet a lower levelised cost of hydrogen. High electricity prices are one of the biggest weaknesses in Scotland’s hydrogen ambitions.
Reform the planning and permitting regime – Streamline complex processes where possible to avoid unneeded congestion and accelerate decarbonisation. Work with the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) to develop the safety case for hydrogen.
Optimise low-carbon policy frameworks – The Hydrogen Production Business Model needs to be optimised to interact with other low-carbon policy frameworks, such as the Contracts for Difference Scheme, Hydrogen T&S Business Models and the H2P Business Model.
Co-ordinate with the EU – Infrastructure projects have long associated lead times and limited flexibility once approved. Therefore, coordinating infrastructure deployment with the European Hydrogen Backbone and port infrastructure is essential.
Continue progress on low-carbon certification – A mutually recognised low-carbon hydrogen standard is critical to the success of hydrogen trade.
Engage local communities – Continue to engage with local communities and improve public understanding of hydrogen’s role in a net zero energy system.
Set out strategy on hydrogen trade – The Scottish Government could work with the UK Government on a clear strategy for how to develop hydrogen export capacity.

Glossary and abbreviations

Glossary

Dehydrogenation	The process of removing hydrogen from a chemical or organic compound.
Electrolytic (also known as green) hydrogen	Hydrogen produced by splitting water into hydrogen and oxygen molecules using electricity.
Gravimetric energy density	The amount of energy per unit mass of substance, usually expressed in terms of Watt-hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) or megajoules per kilogram (MJ/kg).
Hydrogen	Hydrogen is the most abundant and smallest molecule in the universe, made up of two hydrogen atoms.
Hydrogenation	The chemical process of bonding hydrogen and another compound.
Hydrogen derivatives	Substances that contain hydrogen and at least one other element. They are manufactured for the purposes of transporting energy and are converted back into hydrogen before use.
Hydrogen products	Substances that contain hydrogen and at least one other element, but which are intended to be used directly, with no need for reconversion to hydrogen.
Low-carbon alternative	In this report, low-carbon alternatives include all technologies that are economically viable substitutes to hydrogen solutions, such as electric, CCUS and biomass technologies.
Method of transport	Compressed hydrogen molecules can be transported in many ways, including through pipelines, ships and tube trailers.
Technology Readiness Level (TRL)	TRL is a scale used to identify, rate and compare the technical maturity of different technologies, with 1 being the least mature and 9 being the most mature and widely deployed technology.
Volumetric energy density	The amount of available energy per unit volume of substance. Often shown in terms of Watt-hour per litre (Wh/L) or Megajoules per cubic meter (MJ/m³).

Abbreviations

BEIS	Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy
BECCS	Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage
CAPEX	Capital expenditure or capital cost
CBAM	Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism
CCGT	Combined Cycle Gas Turbine
CCS	Carbon Capture and Storage
CCUS	Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage
CO2	Carbon dioxide
DESNZ	Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (formerly known as BEIS)
ETS	Emission Trading Scheme
FCV	Fuel Cell Vehicle
GHG	Greenhouse gas
HEFA	Hydro Processed Esters and Fatty Acids
HPBM	Hydrogen Production Business Model
HVDC	High Voltage Direct Current
LH₂	Liquified hydrogen
LOHC	Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carrier
LPG	Liquified Petroleum Gas
MCH	Methylcyclohexane
MgH₂	Magnesium Hydride
NH₃	Ammonia
RFNBO	Renewable Fuels of Non-Biological Origin
TRL	Technology Readiness Level

Introduction

Context

Scotland has abundant renewable energy resources which could supply significantly more energy than is consumed nationally. This presents an opportunity for Scotland to become a net exporter of low-carbon energy, potentially boosting employment and economic growth, and helping to deliver international decarbonisation.

In addition to electricity interconnectors, low-carbon energy is expected to be exported via mediums including low-carbon gases such as hydrogen. Scotland has ambitions to produce 5 GW of low-carbon hydrogen by 2030, rising to 25 GW by 2045 [1]. As emphasised by the Scottish Hydrogen Assessment, Scotland has the potential to grow a strong hydrogen economy [2]. The Scottish Government signalled its ambition for Scotland to ‘become a leading producer and exporter of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives for use in the UK and in Europe’ [3]. Projections estimate that 75% of this production (by volume) could be exported to UK and European markets [3] [4]. This rise in production is expected to coincide with hydrogen demand growth in the rest of the UK and the European Union (EU), with the EU targeting 20 Mt of hydrogen per annum by 2030, half of which is expected to come from imports [5]. European industrial clusters are likely to be major offtakers and importers of hydrogen and derivatives due to high industrial demand, ambitious decarbonisation targets and limited renewable resources.

The movement of hydrogen over longer distances is not yet well proven. While existing research has confirmed the cost efficiency of future hydrogen pipelines linking the UK and mainland Europe [6], subsea hydrogen pipeline interconnectors are capital cost-intensive and have long lead times [7], making the Scottish Government’s ambition to export hydrogen in the 2020s [3] challenging without alternative options. Due to the low volumetric density of gaseous hydrogen, hydrogen-carrying derivatives are likely to be used in the absence of a centralised hydrogen pipeline network.

Hydrogen derivatives are substances that are manufactured using hydrogen and are generally capable of transporting hydrogen with higher volumetric energy density. Hydrogen products are also made with hydrogen, but are anticipated to be used directly, with no need for reconversion.

A range of technologies are available to increase the volumetric energy density of hydrogen for easier long-distance transport and storage. At a low temperature, gaseous hydrogen can be turned into liquid hydrogen. Liquefaction can help with storing hydrogen in smaller spaces for longer periods of time, transporting it and using it as aviation or shipping fuel. Hydrogen can also be reacted with nitrogen at high temperature and pressure to produce ammonia. Liquid ammonia can be stored more readily than liquified hydrogen due to it having a higher volumetric energy density. When transported to its destination, ammonia can be cracked back into hydrogen and nitrogen or used directly as ammonia in industrial applications. Liquid Organic Hydrogen Carriers (LOHCs) absorb hydrogen in an organic compound. This work focuses on the most advanced organic carrier, methylcyclohexane, which can be easily broken down to hydrogen and toluene. Lastly, metal hydrides, such as magnesium hydride, can carry hydrogen in a solid state, making international trade safer and simpler.

Methodology

We carried out desk-based research and targeted stakeholder interviews simultaneously to gather data and review a range of hydrogen derivatives and products. This dual approach was key to ensuring the interdisciplinarity of the research and bringing together technical, economic and policy aspects. More details can be found in the appendices (section 10).

To assess hydrogen derivatives and products and produce a clear, non-technical output, we assigned Red-Amber-Green (RAG) ratings to each hydrogen derivative and product. Clarification of these RAG categories is provided in Table 1.

RAG rating	Classification
GREEN	Low technical risks, high suitability, or high economic attractiveness.
AMBER	Moderate level of technical risk or suitability.
RED	High levels of risks, limited suitability or no economic attractiveness.

Table 1: Red-Amber-Green rating classification

Hydrogen Product and end use case mapping

Hydrogen is already used in a wide range of sectors, with 2022 consumption in the UK reaching more than 568,000 tonnes (22.3 TWh_HHV) [8]. Most existing hydrogen demand is taken up by oil refining. While hydrogen today is mainly used for oil desulphurisation, its use in biorefineries for hydrogenation is anticipated to grow in the future as demand for biofuels increases [9]. Hydrogen is critical for ammonia and fertiliser manufacturing, making it the second largest end use case in the UK in 2022 [8]. It is also used as a feedstock in the chemical sector, most importantly, for methanol production. While the methanol industry is limited in the UK, low-carbon methanol production is an area of emerging interest domestically. Furthermore, demonstration projects are underway to investigate the use of hydrogen in steel manufacturing. Hydrogen is not currently used in steel making, but directly reduced iron may become the dominant technology by 2050 (see section4.2).

In addition to existing end use cases in industry, we also reviewed end use cases in three sectors: high-temperature heat, transport, and power generation (see Table 2). UK research suggests that hydrogen can be used in most industrial equipment for heat generation, reducing capital costs (CAPEX) in the manufacturing sector as compared to installing new industrial equipment [10]. Low-carbon alternatives include carbon capture and storage (CCS) and biomass technologies. Hydrogen and its derivatives are also well placed to decarbonise some hard-to-electrify transport applications. While hydrogen can be used directly in fuel cell vehicles, the low volumetric density of gaseous hydrogen or high storage costs associated with liquified hydrogen could require it to be converted into derivatives such as methanol, ammonia or other synthetic fuels. This is particularly the case for long-distance and heavy transport. Lastly, our literature review and stakeholder engagement suggested that hydrogen technologies have a high potential to decarbonise dispatchable power production. Existing power plants can be run on hydrogen, ammonia, biomass or retrofitted with CCS technologies. Technologies shown in Table 2 are assessed in section 4.2.

	Industrial feedstock	Industrial heat	Transport	Power
Hydrogen based technologies	Hydrogen for ammonia and methanol production, refining and as a reducing agent	Hydrogen for high temperature heat	Hydrogen (fuel cell) SAF, ammonia and methanol (maritime)	Hydrogen turbines Ammonia turbines
Alternatives	None or very limited alternatives	CCUS-enabled heat generation Biomass	Battery electric vehicles Biofuels	CCUS and biomass turbines

Table 2: Hydrogen products and end use case mapping from our research

Hydrogen Derivative and Product Assessment

Hydrogen, derivatives and low-carbon alternatives

A range of hydrogen and alternative low-carbon technologies are available to export surplus renewable energy from Scotland to domestic and international demand centres. Table 3 summarises RAG ratings for hydrogen, derivatives and interconnectors. Further discussion on the economic case, technical feasibility and sustainability can be found in Appendix A.

Table 3: RAG ratings for hydrogen, derivatives and interconnectors

High voltage direct current (HVDC) interconnectors already connect the UK with neighbouring countries, allowing the energy system to manage electricity peaks and enhance energy security. To increase export capacities and achieve higher system benefits, HVDC interconnectors can be complemented with hydrogen production, using excess renewable energy and exporting it to UK and European demand centres.

Hydrogen pipelines are the most mature and cost-efficient way to transport hydrogen over short and medium distances. However, due to long lead times and high capital costs they are not expected to be available at larger scale in the short term. Like other gases, hydrogen can be shipped in liquid form, which requires an extremely low temperature of −253°C. Hydrogen derivatives are simpler to transport due to their higher energy density and higher transport and storage temperature.

The most widely used hydrogen derivative is ammonia (NH₃), which is produced by reacting hydrogen with nitrogen at high temperatures and pressures. Ammonia has an established global market and is simpler to handle than liquid hydrogen as the boiling point of liquified ammonia is more than 219°C higher than that of liquefied hydrogen.

Organic compounds can also absorb hydrogen into their structure, forming LOHCs. These compounds remain stable as a liquid during transport even at ambient temperature and pressure, making them highly compatible with existing oil assets.

Although metal hydride technologies are relatively new, their simplicity and safety case could make them competitive with other hydrogen technologies. We took magnesium hydride as a case study as it can be easily shipped in a solvent slurry. Methanol is unlikely to be reconverted back to hydrogen at the point of destination. This is due to the economic case and carbon emissions associated with the methanol steam reforming reconversion process.

Hydrogen products

In some cases, hydrogen and its products can be used directly without the need to reconvert derivatives back to hydrogen or low-carbon power. This direct use can significantly improve overall round-trip efficiency, making the trade of hydrogen products an area of emerging interest. The availability of low-carbon alternatives is introduced as an additional factor in the analysis. A green rating is assigned to end-use cases with no or limited availability of alternatives, supporting the case for hydrogen use. A red RAG rating indicates widespread availability of low-carbon alternatives.

Industrial feedstock

The four main non-energy applications of hydrogen in industrial feedstock are ammonia for fertiliser, methanol production, oil refining and green steel production [11]. Table 4 summarises RAG ratings for selected end-use cases for hydrogen products. Further discussion on the economic case, technical feasibility and sustainability can be found in Appendix A.

Table 4: RAG ratings of selected end use cases for hydrogen products

(* – depending on whether hydrogen is used as a reducing agent or in blast furnaces)

Hydrogen is critical for oil refining and the production of ammonia, a key chemical used for fertiliser, plastic or synthetic fibre fabrication. In oil refining, hydrogen is primarily used in hydrocracking and hydrotreating processes. Hydrocracking uses hydrogen and a catalyst to break down heavy hydrocarbons into lighter fractions like jet fuel, petrol and diesel. Hydrotreating removes impurities from hydrocarbon streams with desulphurisation being a key process to improve petrochemical quality and reduce sulphur oxide emissions at the point of use, thereby preventing acid rain.

While its role in fossil fuel refining may decline, low-carbon hydrogen will remain crucial in biorefineries for producing synthetic and biofuels like hydro-processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO) and biodiesel.

Hydrogen is essential for both conventional and synthetic methanol production. Although methanol can be produced using bioresources [12], bio-based methanol alone is unlikely to meet global demand [13]. This makes synthetic methanol crucial for timely and large-scale industrial decarbonisation. Syngas, a mixture of hydrogen, CO and CO₂ molecule can be produced through natural gas reforming or by combining low-carbon hydrogen with sustainably sourced CO₂. This mixture undergoes methanol synthesis, a process where it reacts at high pressure and moderate temperatures to produce methanol (CH₃OH).

In contrast to the end use cases mentioned above, producing green steel requires new steel making equipment. Hydrogen, as an effective reducing agent for iron ore, holds significant potential to decarbonise steel and iron production. While some low-carbon alternatives exist, the IEA anticipates hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) technology coupled with electric arc furnace will dominate, contributing 44% of all emission reductions in the iron sector [14].

High temperature heat

High temperature heat is essential for various industrial processes including cement, ceramic and glass manufacturing. However, decarbonising high-temperature industrial heat is among the most challenging tasks due to technical difficulties and cost inefficiencies associated with generating such heat (>1000 °C) using existing electric technologies [15].

The need for low-carbon technologies is becoming more urgent as approximately 4,300 industrial heating units in the UK rely on gas, representing 70% of the country’s industrial gas consumption [10]. Existing equipment can be retrofitted to use hydrogen, generating direct and indirect heat up to 1000 °C.

Low-carbon alternatives including biofuels such as biomass or biomethane, and CCUS technologies are also viable. With CCUS, industrial plants are upgraded with post-combustion carbon capture systems, which store the resulting greenhouse gases in underground reservoirs.

Table 5 summarises RAG ratings for high temperature heat use. Further discussion on the economic case, technical feasibility and sustainability can be found in Appendix A.

Table 5: The RAG ratings of selected high temperature heat use

Transport

Hydrogen can be used in fuel cell vehicles and has been shown to be able to be cost competitive with other fuels with government subsidies [16]. While the economic case for fuel cell heavy good vehicles (HGVs) is fairly well established [17], there is more uncertainty around lighter vehicles [18]. Battery-electric passenger vehicles and light duty vehicles (LDV) are likely to be more cost competitive compared to their fuel cell equivalents.

Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is currently used in aviation to reduce carbon emissions, and the similar composition as current options allows for storage for long periods of time in the same infrastructure [19]. While the industry continues to explore alternatives to SAF, there is a wide consensus that aviation is a hard-to-electrify sector. Both the EU and the UK have mandated the use of SAF from 2025 (see Figure 1). SAF is anticipated to be the dominant decarbonisation pathway, with other low-carbon fuels such as hydrogen taking up very small shares of the market [20].

Synthetic methanol and ammonia will increasingly be used as fuels in the maritime industry, as there are not many other alternatives. In case of shorter distances, some ships and ferries may be powered electrically with batteries or fuel cells [21]. A Norwegian ferry currently powered by hydrogen fuel cells can reduce yearly emissions by 95% [22].

Table 6 summarises RAG ratings for transport uses. Further discussion on the economic case, technical feasibility and sustainability can be found in Appendix A.

Table 6: The RAG ratings of selected transport uses

Power generation

Renewables are well placed to decarbonise a large share of the electricity supply. However, due to intermittency challenges, electricity generation cannot always meet electricity demand. Hydrogen, ammonia and biomass are all low-carbon fuels that can be used in turbines to meet electricity demand when required. Alternatively, CCUS enabled gas turbines are an alternative that do not require major alterations of existing fossil fuel infrastructure, with the CO₂captured stored underground.

While all technologies reviewed in this section can generate power, they are not necessarily perfect substitutes (see Figure 1). Our stakeholder engagement confirmed that the main role of hydrogen is expected to be in peaking generation, with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) running at baseload due to high capital costs and substantial carbon benefits [23].

Power generation in Great Britain is dispatched in the order of merit or cost. Baseload units, for example nuclear power plants, run throughout the year. Mid-merit units, for example combined-cycle gas plants operate up to thousands of hours per year. Power plants that operate no more than 5% of the year are generally referred to as ‘peaking plants’ [24].

Table 7 shows the RAG ratings of selected power generation methods, with the ‘low-carbon alternative’ factor not being applicable to non-hydrogen technologies, such as gas CCUS, biomass and ammonia.Further discussion on the economic case, technical feasibility and sustainability can be found in Appendix A.

Table 7: The RAG ratings of selected power generation methods

E-METHANOL IN MARITIME

FEWER ALTERNATIVES

MORE ALTERNATIVES

LOW TECHNOLOGY READINESS

HIGH TECHNOLOGY READINESS

REFINING

CHEMICALS

HYDROGEN
INTERCONNECTORS

STEEL

HIGH-TEMPERATURE
HYDROGEN HEAT

AMMONIA
IN MARITIME

AMMONIA
POWER GENERATION

SMALL-SCALE
HYDROGEN
POWER AND CHP

HYDROGEN IN
LIGHT VEHICLES

HYDROGEN IN
HGVs

SUSTAINABLE

AVIATION FUEL

SMALL MARITIME
APPLICATIONS

LOW-TEMPERATURE
HYDROGEN HEAT

LARGE-SCALE HYDROGEN
POWER

Figure 1: Technical and alternative technology assessment of selected hydrogen products and end use cases

ENERGY CARRIER

POWER GENERATION

TRANSPORT

INDUSTRIAL HEAT

INDUSTRIAL FEEDSTOCK

Offtaker Market Assessment

We assessed potential offtake markets for hydrogen derivative and products, covering Scotland, the rest of the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and the European Union as a whole. Our findings are summarised in Table 8.

A Scottish Flag. A diagonal white cross on a circular blue background.

A flag with a cross with Great Britain in the background

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Table 8: The RAG ratings of selected offtaker markets

Distance from Scotland and rest of UK

Our stakeholder engagement confirmed that distance is a key factor determining the price of both domestic and international hydrogen transport. The cost associated with all methods of hydrogen transportation increases linearly with the distance. Shorter distances between hydrogen production sites and demand centres result in lower capital costs for pipelines or tube trailers, compared to long-distance shipping. This means that the lowest associated costs are found within Scotland. Multiple stakeholders highlighted the potential benefits of co-locating hydrogen production and end-user project, substantially reducing the cost of hydrogen transport.

The nearest potential demand hotspots to Scotland are in the rest of the UK, with the closest being the industrial clusters in the North of England and Wales. Internationally, the closest industrial offtake markets are in the Netherlands, Belgium and Germany, in order of proximity. While distance to the nearest hydrogen terminal is highly relevant in the short term, its importance is expected to decrease as the intra-European hydrogen infrastructure, the European Hydrogen Backbone, becomes available. Once a centralised hydrogen market is in place, Central or Eastern European markets are anticipated to be accessible from Western Europe.

Infrastructure gap and opportunity

Hydrogen trade infrastructure, including ports, terminals, onshore and offshore pipelines, is key to removing barriers to trade. In contrast to the UK’s limited hydrogen infrastructure, Europe has around 2,000 km of hydrogen pipelines [25], with further extensions needed to avoid market inefficiencies. Existing infrastructure, for example gas interconnectors, can be leveraged and repurposed to bring down CAPEX costs. Subsea natural gas interconnectors already link Great Britain with Northern Ireland, Ireland, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium. While IEA analysis suggests that the cost of hydrogen transport can be significantly reduced using repurposed pipelines [26], our stakeholder engagement suggests that the majority of the natural gas assets are unlikely to be altered, to maintain energy security.

While some of the fossil fuel infrastructure is required to stay in place, it is critical to develop purpose-built hydrogen assets, especially given the long lead times associated with new developments. To supplement and link up regional pipelines, the European Hydrogen Backbone project aims to develop 53,000 km of hydrogen pipelines by 2040. The REPowerEU Plan set out three major import corridors via the Mediterranean, the North Sea area and Ukraine. Germany and the UK signed a Memorandum of Understanding in 2023 strengthening collaboration on energy and climate, including security of energy infrastructure [27]. Research conducted by the Net Zero Technology Centre is ongoing to explore the feasibility of a subsea hydrogen pipeline between Scotland and mainland Europe [28]. Stakeholders suggested that further coordination with the European Union is key to ensure alignment between infrastructure.

All selected European countries have strategy on domestic pipeline infrastructure roll-out. Germany has a well-established network of pipelines especially in the north-west and is aiming to add 4,500 km of hydrogen pipeline using Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI) funding [29]. The Netherlands is also aiming to link industrial clusters with a national hydrogen network by 2030 [30].

European ports and terminals, critical for long-distance import and export, are developing similar strategies. The Port of Rotterdam aims to supply 4.6 million tonnes of hydrogen per year by 2030 (181.2 TWh_HHV) [31], with projections suggesting a capacity of 20 million tonnes per year by 2050 (788 TWh_HHV ) [32] become major renewable energy hubs. More detail on infrastructure projects can be found in Table 11 (Appendix B).

As well as infrastructure to support the supply and trade of hydrogen, there is also a need for demand-side infrastructure to complete the value chain with offtake. This includes hydrogen refuelling stations, hydrogen boilers, salt caverns for storage and hydrogen-powered furnaces etc. For example, the EU’s Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation includes a required number of hydrogens refuelling stations along it’s TEN-T core network, a road network that includes the most important connections between major cities and nodes, planned for completion by 2030. The regulation states that a hydrogen fuelling station with a cumulative daily capacity of one tonne, dispensed at least a 700bar, is required every 200km to “ensure a sufficiently dense network to allow hydrogen vehicles to travel across the EU.”

Meanwhile, many European countries are targeting a phase out of fossil-fuel powered household boilers by 2035, with clean hydrogen boilers seen as a key alternative. Development of demand infrastructure currently requires support from similar policies across the value chain, with several EU policy schemes such as the Emission Trading Scheme, SAF Mandates and Road Transport Fuel Obligation (RTFO). With the policy and investment progressing, demand-side infrastructure will follow. This presents an opportunity for Scotland to partner with the EU to shape and support these supply chains as they develop and provide the necessary hydrogen supply.

Existing demand for hydrogen and hydrogen products

While existing demand is mainly met by fossil fuel derived hydrogen and derivatives, the share of low-carbon hydrogen is expected to increase given emerging mandates, policy frameworks and increasing carbon prices. The Netherlands and Germany were the leading hydrogen trading countries in 2023, with a total import of 194,096,000 m³ and 6,322,280 m³ of overwhelmingly fossil-based hydrogen, respectively [33] (see Figure 15 in Appendix B).

Figure 2, below, shows the consumption of hydrogen in the UK, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and the whole of EU for the year 2022. In the EU, Germany is the largest consumer of hydrogen followed by the Netherlands, whereas Belgium is the 9^th largest consumer. Together, these three countries account for roughly 41% of the total consumption of hydrogen in EU [8].

Figure 2: Total hydrogen consumption in the EU, the Netherlands, Belgium, the UK and Germany in 2022

Projected demand for hydrogen derivatives and products

As countries progress toward net zero targets, demand for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives and products is expected to rise. On a European scale, the UK and Germany have the most ambitious short-term demand for hydrogen. The UK Government has estimated between 80 and 140 TWh in demand by the end of 2035 [34] [35]. For Scotland, as shown in section 7.3, analysis by Gemserv projects hydrogen demand to range from 0.6 TWh to 2.8 TWh by 2030, and from 2.9 to25 TWh by 2045.

Germany set a target of 95 – 130 TWh by 2030 [29] with independent projections in line with this range (42 – 72 TWh of demand by 2030) [4]. By 2045, forecasts range from 184 to 694 TWh depending on assumptions. Belgium anticipates a demand of 20 TWh by 2030 but expects a sharp increase to 200-230 TWh by 2050 [36]. The Netherlands has projected demands of 120 TWh (2050) [37]. Demand scenarios developed as part of this research are discussed in Appendix E.

Policy landscape and net zero ambitions

Scotland has an ambitious net zero target for 2045. This is five years ahead of the UK’s net zero target. Both Governments have published strategies and action plans on hydrogen production. However, stakeholders highlighted the lack of clarity on regional and hydrogen trade strategy. This perceived lack of clarity and of commitment to specific targets and routes could be a competitive disadvantage compared to other European countries.

In the UK, hydrogen production projects will be subsidised under the Hydrogen Production Business Model (HPBM). The HPBM will ensure it only stimulates production of hydrogen that is low-carbon by requiring volumes to comply with the Low Carbon Hydrogen Standard (LCHS) which sets a maximum emissions limit of 20 gCO_2e/MJ [38]. While hydrogen production using imported natural gas is eligible for support under the Cluster Sequencing programme, the HPBM is not expected to support any form of hydrogen or hydrogen derivative import [38] and export [39].

In the absence of UK-wide policies supporting hydrogen trade, its main driver is expected to be international hydrogen import subsidies, mandates and targets. While the UK has committed to designing generous hydrogen business models, our stakeholder engagement suggests that regulatory bottlenecks remain, particularly around electricity market and the planning and permitting frameworks. According to stakeholders, the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) is critical to cut the currently ‘very high’ grid electricity prices in the UK, particularly in Scotland. With hydrogen costs highly sensitive to electricity prices, reducing these will be essential to improving Scottish hydrogen competitiveness.

Stakeholders also reported that hydrogen regulation is fragmented and dated, with the planning and permitting process being more complex and lengthier compared to ‘other industrial countries’. These findings are in line with a 2023 research paper commissioned by DESNZ [40]. Scotland and UK specific regulatory bottlenecks are detailed in Table 18 (Appendix D).

The EU aims to be carbon neutral by 2050 [41]. It adopted a strategy on hydrogen in 2020 which focussed on 5 key areas: investment aid, production and demand, creating a hydrogen market (including infrastructure), research and international co-operation [42]. In the 2022 REPowerEU Plan, the European Commission set an ambitious 20 million tonne (equivalent to approximately 330 TWh) hydrogen target for 2030, with the EU aiming to import half of this [43]. Ambitious European import targets could offer potential opportunities to Scottish hydrogen exporters.

The German Federal Government established H2Global in 2021, a double auction model designed to facilitate inter-continental hydrogen trade [44]. In 2023, the European Commission decided to link the European Hydrogen Bank with H2Global to allow all EU member states access to the funding mechanism and agreed to jointly develop a European auction for international hydrogen imports [45]. Germany laid out an ambitious net zero target for 2045 [46] and their national hydrogen strategy states both a domestic hydrogen production target of 10GW alongside an import target of 90 TWh, potentially above 90% of the total demand forecast for 2030 [29]. They anticipate 2030 hydrogen demand to reach 95-130 TWh, around 50-70% (45 to 90 TWh) of which is forecasted be imported [29]. According to the National Hydrogen Strategy, pre-2030 imports are anticipated to be delivered by ships, with imports gradually expanding to pipeline-based solutions after 2030 [47].

Both the Netherlands and Belgium have net zero targets for 2050 and published national hydrogen strategies [48] [49]. The Netherlands has announced hydrogen import targets for 2030 for the Port of Rotterdam, 4.6Mtpa in 2030 increasing to 18Mtpa by 2050, and the Port of Amsterdam, 1Mtpa by 2030 [50]. Belgium has also set an import target of 0.6Mtpa, meaning that 62% of the continent’s 10Mtpa target could be met by these three ports [50].

The EU, along with member states are working towards a harmonised certification framework for low-carbon hydrogen to remove trade barriers [29] [51] [52]. Our stakeholder engagement suggests that misalignment between certification frameworks is expected to be the main bottleneck for international trade. UK and international hydrogen-related policies are further detailed in Table 19 (Appendix D).

SWOT Analysis

To shortlist high-potential hydrogen derivatives, products and end use cases, we considered the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats associated with hydrogen derivatives and the trade of these products from a Scottish perspective.

Strengths

Strengths focus on the competitive advantages of Scotland.

As highlighted by a number of stakeholders, Scotland’s main competitive advantage in the hydrogen sector is access to abundant renewable generation capacity. As future renewable capacity is likely to exceed future electricity demand, Scotland is well placed to transition into an international hydrogen hub. Existing jobs, skills, and infrastructure, especially in the oil and gas and offshore wind sectors, could also confer a competitive advantage. Existing oil and gas infrastructure, such as gas interconnectors, ports, terminals and vessels, can be repurposed, resulting in savings in CAPEX. For example, due to the similarity of LPG and liquified ammonia, existing LPG terminals can be repurposed to import and export ammonia.

While Scotland does not have direct access to geological salt formations required for salt cavern hydrogen storage, depleted and partially depleted gas and oil reservoirs off the coast of Scotland could be suitable for large-scale hydrogen and CO₂ storage. Existing feasibility studies, demonstration projects, and trials funded by the Scottish and UK Governments are critical to get initial commercial projects off the ground.

Weaknesses

Weaknesses focus on the competitive disadvantages of Scotland.

Our research identified high grid electricity prices as the main competitive disadvantage of Scotland. Despite abundant renewables potential, high prices and network charges seem to prevent Scottish industry and consumers to capitalise on this advantage. Additionally, compared to other regions aiming to export surplus low-carbon hydrogen to European demand hotspots, Scotland’s relative disadvantage in solar generation could lead to greater intermittency, translating into higher hydrogen production costs.

In terms of infrastructure, electricity network constraints and limited energy storage capacity could prevent the energy system from mitigating temporal and geographic electricity imbalances. Lack of geological salt formations beneath Scotland will also amplify the challenge of storing large volumes of hydrogen in the absence of a UK-wide centralised hydrogen network.

Other weaknesses include limited experience in the production of ammonia, methanol, LOHC, and other derivative, as well as the lack of low-carbon hydrogen production on a commercial scale.

Opportunities

Opportunities focus on the future potential of Scotland as well as Scotland’s environment, offtake markets and competitors.

Hydrogen presents the opportunity to cut carbon emissions, reduce wind curtailment costs, boost economic growth and enhance energy security and resilience. In trade terms, stakeholders highlighted the opportunity for Scotland to strengthen existing industrial clusters and focus on high value-added industries instead of exporting low value-added fuels.

Although electricity prices are currently high, reforms under REMA could reduce costs for consumers. From an offtake market perspective, the main opportunity is to export hydrogen to industrial clusters in England and Wales. Once online, a core network connecting demand and supply hotspots can transport gaseous hydrogen in a cost-efficient manner. The North of England has the added benefit of large potential hydrogen storage capacities. By transporting hydrogen to Cheshire, Teesside or the Humber, Scottish producers could utilise large-scale storage facilities, enhancing flexibility and hedging against supply and demand-side shocks.

Regulatory misalignment—particularly around certification—is less of a barrier within the UK, as the Low Carbon Hydrogen Standard is expected to be applied nationally. Internationally, the increasing willingness of the EU, Germany and the Netherlands to import and subsidise low carbon hydrogen is a significant opportunity. Partially driven by the RED III directive, industry in the EU will have to meet a substantial share of their hydrogen demand from low-carbon by 2030.

Threats

Threats focus on the future risks in Scotland as well as risk associated with Scotland’s environment, offtake markets and competitors.

As our research identified hydrogen export to England as a high-potential opportunity, any delay in building out a core network connecting UK supply and demand hotpots is a threat to the growth of the hydrogen economy. In terms of international transport, lack of progress with hydrogen interconnectors, ports, terminals and vessels could further delay hydrogen derivative and product trade.

While Scotland is well-placed to supply hydrogen molecules through high-pressure pipelines, it may be outcompeted in the European market by lower cost, low-carbon hydrogen from renewable rich countries particularly in the form of ammonia, methanol and other hydrogen derivatives. This is because of high electricity prices, intermittency challenges and high hydrogen transport costs in the absence of subsea hydrogen interconnectors. However, the main threat on an international scale is the lack of a harmonised certification framework. As emphasised by the IEA, inconsistencies in low-carbon hydrogen standards risk becoming the main barrier for the development of international hydrogen and derivative trade [53].

Hydrogen Derivative and Product Demand

This section discusses the findings of the analysis, with the methodology used to develop these estimates shown in Appendix E. The analysis estimates the annual demand for hydrogen in the EU, the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and England and Wales. Annual demand scenarios were developed for the years 2030 and 2045, and the demand was divided into various sectors and hydrogen products. The years 2030 and 2045 are selected due to their significance to policy targets for both the EU and Scotland. The RED III targets set out by the EU focus on accelerating the demand for hydrogen, among other fuels, by the year 2030 [54] and Scotland has a target of achieving net zero by the year 2045. Finally, in our analysis, hydrogen demand is modelled under three scenarios: High, Central, and Low in 2030 and 2045. The full demand mapping results can be seen in Appendix E.

Sectoral Demand

Figure 3 shows the modelled annual demand, by sector, for the whole of the EU for the years 2030 and 2045. Hydrogen demand is expected to be significantly higher in 2045, compared to 2030. The industrial demand^[3] shown in Figure 3 captures all industrial demand for hydrogen including demand for methanol and ammonia. The subsequent graphs in Figure 4 break down the industrial demand by product type.

Figure 3: Modelled annual demand for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives in the EU

Figure 4 and Figure 5 show the expectation that demand for hydrogen use directly will be greater than demand for ammonia or methanol in both the 2030 and 2045 timeframe for the EU and nations considered. Demand for ammonia and methanol using low-carbon hydrogen will be driven by the RED III mandate which specifies that 42% of industrial hydrogen use (except refining) must utilise renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOs) by 2030. By 2045, it is expected that almost all ammonia and methanol will rely on low-carbon hydrogen.

Figure 4: Central Scenario EU Industrial Hydrogen Demand by Product in 2030 and 2045

Figure 5: Central Scenario National Industrial Hydrogen Demand by Product in 2030 and 2045

In all modelled scenarios for 2030 and 2045, the industrial sector is expected to remain the dominant driver of hydrogen demand in the EU. However, demand is likely to diversify between 2030 and 2045 largely because of increasing forecast contributions from the power generation sector – where hydrogen is expected to serve an important role in balancing the power system during times of low renewable generation.

For example, in 2030 the share of the industrial sector in the mix of total hydrogen demand ranges from 88% to 96% (Figure 6) but is expected to fall to within a range of 28% to 59% by 2045. Hydrogen demand in the transport sector is estimated to grow rapidly between 2030 and 2045 – largely driven by growth in demand for hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel for heavy transport, including maritime transport, aviation and HGV transport. In some scenarios, hydrogen consumption is further diversified between 2030 and 2045 by an increasingly large demand from the heating sector – which comprises as much as 14% of total hydrogen demand in the EU in the high scenario for 2045.

Figure 6: Share of different sectors and hydrogen derivatives of total hydrogen demand in the EU

Figure 7 and Figure 8 depict the modelled annual demand for hydrogen for Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and England and Wales for different sectors in the years 2030 and 2045.

Figure 7 indicates that, consistent with the EU wide hydrogen demand, the industrial sector is anticipated to comprise most hydrogen demand in all countries by 2030. Similarly, reflecting EU-wide trends, hydrogen demand is expected to become increasingly diverse by 2045, when power generation, road transport and aviation will all likely also contribute to hydrogen demand in each of these markets. Hydrogen demand in the heating industry could also grow significantly in these markets; however, this is entirely dependent on the national policy landscape. For both 2030 and 2045, Germany and England and Wales are anticipated to drive most of the hydrogen demand.

Figure 7: Hydrogen demand for countries across all scenarios and sectors for the year 2030

Figure 8: Hydrogen demand for countries across all scenarios and sectors for the year 2045

Demand by Hydrogen Product

The total final demand for hydrogen, ammonia, methanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) in the EU is shown in Figure 9. It is expected that hydrogen demand will be greater than any of the products assessed for both 2030 and 2045 making up 68% and 78% of demand, respectively. Of the products assessed, final demand for ammonia is likely to be greatest, estimated at 42 TWh in 2030. This is driven by low-carbon ammonia demand for use in fertilisers. It is expected that ammonia demand will rise to 206 TWh, with demand for maritime fuel making up over half of this total. Final demand for methanol derived from low-carbon hydrogen is expected to increase from 15 TWh to 20 TWh between 2030 and 2045. SAF demand from power to liquids in the EU is projected to increase from 4 TWh to 59 TWh between 2030 and 2045, due to the emerging SAF mandates.

Figure 9: Central EU Final Demand for Hydrogen and Products in 2030 and 2045

Figure 10 shows the central annual final demand for hydrogen and products by country. Similar to the EU as a whole, it is estimated that hydrogen has the highest demand for each region in both time periods. However, demand for ammonia could be significant, particularly in regions with significant maritime activity such as the Netherlands, where ammonia is estimated to form 44% of final demand in 2045. SAF demand is expected to be more evenly distributed across regions due to greater distribution of aviation activity. Methanol demand is relatively low across all regions ranging between 1 and 7 TWh per year by 2045.

Figure 10: Central National Final Demand for Hydrogen and Products in 2030 and 2045

Demand Scenarios for Scotland

As Figure 11 shows, the projected demand in Scotland is likely to be limited for the year 2030, ranging from just 0.6 TWh to 2.8 TWh from the Low to the High scenarios. The demand jumps up for the year 2045, ranging from 2.9 TWh in the Low scenario to 25 TWh in the High scenario^[4].

Figure 11 shows that for the year 2030, industry is the main driver for demand in Scotland. However, for the year 2045, other sectors like Road Transport and Power Generation play significant roles as drivers of demand.

These results reaffirm the export potential for Scotland as the hydrogen production capacity of Scotland is expected to be larger than the demand for hydrogen.

Figure 11: Annual demand for hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives for Scotland for 2030 and 2045

Figure 12 shows the range of demand for hydrogen and its derivatives for Scotland. The graph shows that the demand for all sectors, other than industry, is limited in all scenarios for the year 2030, with demand varying by sector significantly in 2045. For example, in the transport sector, the Low and High scenarios estimate a demand of 0.6 TWh and 7 TWh, respectively. This wide range is the result of high uncertainty of demand for hydrogen in the maritime and road transport sectors of Scotland for 2045.

Figure 12: Range for hydrogen & hydrogen derivatives across all sectors for Scotland

Comparison to Literature

A European Commission [55] (JRC) study reviewed a diverse range of literature and used the projections from different studies to determine average annual demand for hydrogen in the EU. According to the JRC study, the total projected annual demand for hydrogen in 2030 is 230 TWh [55], which lies towards the upper bound of this report’s estimate of 108-236 TWh. Similarly, the EU Commission’s study projects the annual demand to be 900 TWh in 2040 and 1,270 TWh in 2050. Whereas this report’s analysis projects the demand for hydrogen for 2045 to be within the range of 733 TWh to 1852 TWh.

A 2021 study conducted by European Hydrogen Backbone [56] estimates that the annual demand for green and blue hydrogen in Industry (for both the EU and the UK) will reach 692 TWh in 2040 and 983 TWh by 2050 [56]. Whereas this report projects the demand in industry in both EU and UK to range from 534 TWh to 711 TWh in 2045.

Figure 13 provides a full comparison between the results of this study and those of two external studies. The results estimated for this report are shown as a range of total projected annual demand of hydrogen for EU, for the years 2030 and 2045. The results of the other two studies are not shown as ranges; and the years for these studies are 2030, 2040 and 2050. It is also worth noting that this study includes demand for the heating sector, which is not accounted for in the other two.

Figure 13: Comparison of this study’s results with the literature

The comparison of these estimates is challenging as their geographical scope and timelines vary, with a number further differences in modelling methodologies.

Policy Gap Analysis

Our stakeholder engagement and desk-based research highlighted the following policy gaps. Further regulatory gaps can be found in Table 18.

In the United Kingdom, reserved matters are decisions taken by the UK Parliament, as opposed to devolved matters where devolved institutions, including the Scottish Parliament, hold decision making authority. As such, we have split our policy gap analysis into Scotland based, UK based and international policy gaps.

Policy Gaps in Scotland

Scottish policy gaps are set out below.

Lack of clarity on hydrogen trade strategy

Clear signals from the Scottish Government are required for the Scottish industry to prepare and make strategic decisions to enable successful trade.

Planning and permitting

Planning and permitting processes need to be faster and streamlined. Hydrogen projects typically require long lead times, due to infrastructure requirements as well as typical barriers to the implementation of innovative technology. This finding is in line with our stakeholder engagement and 2023 report commissioned by DESNZ [57]. Streamlining and accelerating the planning processes is key to alleviating investment barriers.

While our stakeholder engagement and desk-based research was conducted prior to the announcement of ‘the Planning Hub’ [58], this new body is anticipated to improve consenting speed and make the planning system more efficient for hydrogen projects.

Regional Strategic Planning

Stakeholder engagement highlighted that Scotland is home to diverse regions, with varied geographical environments. Blanket, national strategic planning risks overlooking localised requirements and optimal use cases =. Scotland needs regional hydrogen strategies that are integrated with a cohesive national strategy.

Increasing need for trials and demonstration projects

The hydrogen industry, especially the trade sector, will utilise new technologies, which still need to be proven and developed. Trials and demonstration projects are increasingly needed to build the case for these technologies.

Policy Gaps in the UK

As outlined above, some policy gaps relate to the UK Government as a reserved power, as opposed to the Scottish Government, as a devolved power. The policy gaps for the reserved power, in this case the UK government, are detailed below.

Hydrogen Trade Strategy

The UK is currently lacking a clear strategy on hydrogen trade as well as a holistic strategy incorporating natural gas, electricity and hydrogen. This is urgently required to provide clarity, allow for strategic decisions to be taken and stimulate investment.

The establishment of National Electricity System Operator (NESO) is a positive step towards solving this issue. NESO is expected to address issues regarding whole system strategy by integrating electricity, gas and hydrogen infrastructure into one energy system plan. NESO has developed whole energy system models, titled Future Energy Scenarios, which support planning and identify the opportunity for Scotland to be an energy exporter. This work should be expanded to include economic modelling on trade, culminating in a developed and full strategy.

Infrastructure

A clear commitment to a core hydrogen network, linking industrial clusters in Scotland, England and Wales is needed. More clarity on the timeline is key to improving investor certainty and get initial projects off the ground.

Dated and fragmented hydrogen regulation

Onshore hydrogen projects are currently regulated under the Gas Act 1986 and Planning Act 2008, with hydrogen generally being defined as a ‘gas’. Our stakeholder engagement suggested that current regulation is fragmented, with more concise and ‘net-zero-aligned’ regulation increasingly needed in the UK.

Hydrogen Production Business Model

Risk-taking intermediaries (RTI), market players who take ownership of the hydrogen molecules before selling it on to transporters or end users, need to be recognised as an eligible offtake option. Stakeholders warned that without the recognition of RTIs, large-scale and efficient hydrogen trade, transport and storage may not materialise. Additionally, the current allocation round set up of the HPBM has also raised a competitive element between projects. This reduces collaboration between key stakeholders. The UK Government should assess how they can reduce this competition driven fragmentation within current funding mechanisms.

Misalignment between UK and EU ETS

The UK and EU ETS need to be aligned to successfully foster low-carbon trade of goods. Clarity is urgently needed around the scope of inclusion for the maritime sector.

Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA)

The current electricity market pricing structure needs reforming to help bring down prices. As electricity prices are a major driver of hydrogen production costs, reforms are critical to increasing uptake and improving competitiveness of UK hydrogen.

Wider and international policy gaps

Alignment between international policy is critical to facilitating successful trade between nations. International policy gaps are shown below.

Lack of clarity on emission factors

Standardised emission factors for alternative fuels (e.g. methanol) are needed. This is highly relevant to sectors such as maritime and aviation where synthetic fuels may play a major role. Standard values are needed for carbon accounting, from accredited sources, to ensure reporting consistency.

Misalignment between certification frameworks

Differences in low-carbon hydrogen certification frameworks create complexity in international trade. The development of mutually recognised standardised certification frameworks is essential to facilitate cross-border trade in hydrogen and its derivatives.

Conclusions

Scotland has significant opportunities in the production, use and export of hydrogen, its derivatives and products, particularly to nearby markets in England, Wales, and the European Union. England and Wales offer a large local market due to existing industrial demand, geographical proximity, and similar regulatory frameworks. The EU is also a potential market because its member states are unlikely to meet their own low-carbon hydrogen demand, creating an opportunity for Scottish exports.

While Germany and the Netherlands are anticipated to import significant amount of hydrogen and derivatives, the extensive infrastructure and harmonised certification frameworks necessary for international trade are not yet in place. Subsea hydrogen interconnectors are crucial for intra-European trade as alternative delivery methods and hydrogen derivatives are associated with substantially higher costs. Without such a pipeline, other renewable resource-rich regions, such as the Middle East, South Africa and South America, may outcompete Scotland in the European market.

For global trade, ammonia is expected to become the dominant hydrogen derivative due to its technical maturity, efficiency, and well-established global market. Other hydrogen transport methods, like liquified hydrogen, LOHCs and metal hydrides, are anticipated have a more minor role. The most suitable hydrogen derivative for export will depend on factors including scale of production, transport distance, infrastructure readiness and end use application.

Key UK and EU industrial sectors such as chemicals, aviation, and steel are well-positioned to use hydrogen and hydrogen products directly, supported by rising carbon prices and emerging policies like the Sustainable Aviation Fuel mandates in the UK and the European Union. Although synthetic methanol will play a key role in decarbonising industrial use and maritime projects, uncertainties remain around maritime policy and biogenic CO₂ availability.

As low-carbon ammonia markets and propulsion technologies mature, the maritime sector is projected to transition from ammonia to methanol in the medium to long term. Hydrogen has also been found to be critical for the decarbonisation of the iron and steel industry, with the majority of steel plants expected to use directly reduced iron (DRI) technology.

The success of international hydrogen trade will depend on robust infrastructure, emission trading schemes, and the timely implementation of the CBAM, alongside mutually recognised certification frameworks.

Recommendations

Stimulate demand by improving alignment – With carbon prices being among the strongest demand-side incentives, the Scottish Government could work together with the UK Government and the EU to maximise its benefits. As pointed out by stakeholders, the UK and EU Emissions Trading System need to be aligned to avoid potential carbon taxes on UK products including maritime fuels. The timely launch of the UK Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is also critical to stimulate demand domestically and achieve better alignment and consistency with the EU policy framework. Section 8 of the report discusses these policies, and more, in higher detail.
Stimulate demand by supporting trials and demonstration projects –The Scottish Government is encouraged to continue its approach with supporting hydrogen demand projects through subsidy schemes, such as the Hydrogen Innovation Scheme, helping end users overcome barriers to investment. More trials and demonstration projects are key to create learnings, improve investor certainty and get initial projects off the ground.
Support infrastructure – Scotland should support key new-built and repurposed infrastructure projects including a core UK hydrogen network, ports and terminals (see Section 5.2). This includes working with the UK Government to give developers more clarity on the timeline of a core hydrogen network and how this will link with UK ports and terminals. There should also be an equal amount of focus on developing demand- and storage-based infrastructure, like hydrogen boilers, refuelling stations and salt cavern storage.
Enhance competitiveness of Scottish hydrogen –To effectively compete with renewable rich regions, Scotland needs to meet a lower levelised cost of hydrogen. This is because the main contributor to the levelised cost of hydrogen is electricity price. High electricity prices are identified as one of the biggest weaknesses in Scotland’s hydrogen ambitions, as laid out in section 6.2. While the power of devolved administrations is limited, the Scottish Government is recommended to (1) commission research into alternative electricity market arrangements and (2) work with the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) and the UK Government, representing the Scottish industry from an evidence base position.
Reform the planning and permitting regime and ensure safety case is developed – With Scotland having a longer and more complex planning and permitting framework compared to other industrialised countries, developers need more guidance. The Scottish Government should look to streamline these processes where possible to avoid unneeded congestion and accelerate decarbonisation. Work with the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) to ensure that the safety case for hydrogen is developed in a timely manner and disseminate the results effectively.
Optimise low-carbon policy frameworks – While current policy is designed to get initial projects off the ground, our research found that the Hydrogen Production Business Model needs to be optimised and designed considering interactions with other low-carbon policy frameworks, such as the Contracts for Difference Scheme, Hydrogen T&S Business Models and the H2P Business Model. The UK Government allowing risk-taking intermediaries in subsequent allocation rounds is critical to strengthen the hydrogen supply chain and unlock domestic hydrogen trade.
Co-ordinate with the EU –Infrastructure projects have long associated lead times and limited flexibility once approved. Therefore, coordinating infrastructure deployment with the European Hydrogen Backbone and port infrastructure is essential. More coordination with the EU, in the form of trade policies, was also one of the key takeaways and a commonly brought up point in the stakeholder engagement that Gemserv conducted. Key findings from the stakeholder engagement are discussed in Appendix G.
Continue progress on low-carbon – A standardised low-carbon hydrogen standard is critical to the success of hydrogen trade. The Scottish Government is recommended to work with the UK Government, European bodies and other international stakeholders to accelerate the harmonisation or the mutual recognition of low-carbon certification frameworks.
Engage local communities – Public perception has been seen to be a critical aspect in the successful implementation of hydrogen as a technology. The Scottish Government should continue to engage with local communities and improve the public understanding hydrogen’s role in a net zero energy system as well as the stringent safety and regulatory measures undertaken in implementation. The Scottish Government could also look at forming a strategy of how best to disseminate the benefits of hydrogen trade to local consumers.
Set out strategy on hydrogen trade – The Scottish Government could work with the UK Government on a clear strategy on how hydrogen export, and potentially import capacities, are planned to be developed.

Appendices

Hydrogen derivative and product assessment

Hydrogen, pipelines, derivatives and low-carbon alternatives

Economic implications

As shown in Figure 14 below, repurposed 48-inch pipelines are likely to have the lowest levelised cost of delivering hydrogen [26]. Since there are no existing pipelines between the Scottish mainland and the proposed hydrogen export markets in Europe, this option would likely involve the construction of a large length of new 48-inch pipeline. The construction of pipelines over long distances, however, would require a significant initial investment of both time and capital. Therefore, conventional tanker transport may provide a short-term solution, especially in cases where scale, distance or the end use case would not justify pipeline construction [59]. From a market perspective, our stakeholder engagement and existing research [60] [61] suggest that compressed pipelines are critical to ensure the competitiveness of Scottish hydrogen in European market. This is because alternative delivery methods and hydrogen derivatives are associated with substantially higher costs. Without a subsea pipeline, other renewable resource-rich regions, such as the Middle East, South Africa and South America, may outcompete Scotland in the European market.

Owing to its higher volumetric energy density of 70.85 kg/m³[62], it is possible to transport the same amount of liquified hydrogen in a smaller tanker compared to gaseous hydrogen. Compared to compressed hydrogen pipelines, this option is still relatively expensive per volume of hydrogen transported, with the liquefaction process estimated to add up to almost half the total cost of hydrogen transport [63]. Liquified ammonia has been shown to be the lowest cost of selected hydrogen derivatives over long distances [26]. When ammonia is used directly as a feedstock, it is not necessary to reconvert the ammonia to hydrogen upon arrival.

Direct use of hydrogen derivatives is further discussed in section 4.2. Our research used offshore high-voltage direct current interconnectors as a reference point, as they are also suitable to alleviate curtailment issues to some extent. Despite no ‘conversion costs’, transporting renewable electricity through HVDC cables could have higher costs compared to repurposed hydrogen pipelines due to efficiency and flexibility restrictions, described within Section 5.1.1.2.

Figure 14: Levelised cost of delivering hydrogen Source: International Energy Agency (IEA) (2022)

Technical feasibility

Subsea high voltage cables are highly mature, with a technology readiness level (TRL) of 9 and nine electricity interconnectors already connecting Great Britain to neighbouring countries [64]. However, congestion issues, relatively low efficiency over long distances and the lack of long-term flexibility could make electricity interconnectors less suitable to export larger amounts of renewable energy compared to hydrogen technologies [7] [65] (Table 15)

Transporting hydrogen through new-built pipelines is a mature technology (TRL 9), with more than 2,000 km of pipelines operational in Europe [26]. Given limited commercial deployment, repurposed pipelines have lower technical maturity (TRL 7) [26]. Investigation into the repurposing of networks is ongoing in the UK as part of National Gas Transmission’s FutureGrid project [66]. Scotland has 17,000 miles of gas pipeline [67], with an additional 100% hydrogen North Sea pipeline being considered as part of the Hydrogen Backbone Link. This would enable export of hydrogen from Scotland to Germany through a 10 GW hydrogen pipeline by 2045, transporting 2.4 kt of hydrogen per day [4] [68]. Liquified hydrogen has been used for a long time, with the first liquefaction taking place in 1898 [69]. As liquified hydrogen has not been produced on a commercial scale, it has a TRL level of 8 [70] [63].

Although conversion and reconversion processes are needed, the simpler handling and higher hydrogen density of hydrogen derivatives make them more attractive. While some liquified ammonia could boil off during transport (approximately 0.098 % /day) [63], ammonia loss is less significant compared to liquified hydrogen, given the relatively high boil point of -33 °C. Stakeholders agreed that while low-carbon hydrogen production is in its infancy, ammonia production and shipping has competitive advantage in technical maturity compared to other derivatives. While no ammonia or liquid hydrogen port projects have been announced in Scotland, some of the existing infrastructure, for example LNG and LPG terminals, can also be repurposed to reduce capital costs [71]. Strategically important Scottish ports are discussed in further detail in Table 11. The final step in the value chain is ammonia cracking, splitting ammonia into hydrogen and nitrogen molecules. Ammonia crackers are not as mature as ammonia synthesis plants and have an overall TRL between TRL 4 and 6 [72].

The main technical advantage of LOHCs, for example methylcyclohexane (MCH) and dibenzyl toluene (DBT), is that they are compatible with existing liquid fuel assets, with no boil off during shipping. While interest in LOHCs is limited in Scotland, some UK-based developers are investigating this technology. Magnesium hydride has a volumetric H₂ density of 106 kg H₂/m³, which makes it a suitable alternative to ammonia in ports that do not allow its import or export, due to stringent safety regulation. Magnesium hydride is easier to handle than ammonia, and magnesium as feedstock is widely available, reducing total costs. Some stakeholders highlighted the increasing need for the HSE’s updated guidance on hydrogen safety, with most stakeholders mentioning the lack of guidance on hydrogen planning and permitting as a significant bottleneck. Several UK-based projects, including, HyDus [73], HEOS [74] and HydroStar [75], are investigating metal hydride technologies. Further research is being undertaken to increase the uptake efficiency and the dehydrogenation process, which does not require high temperatures. Our stakeholder engagement suggests that strategic co-location of hydrogen derivative plants with other heat-intensive processes could offer additional efficiency gains through heat recovery. Strategic planning with holistic and regional approach, however, is critical to unlock these opportunities. Technical advantages and disadvantages are displayed in further detail in Table 12.

Sustainability

Overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with hydrogen and derivative transport are highly sensitive to the fuel and technology used for the conversion, transport and reconversion processes, also known as hydrogenation and dehydrogenation. Among all hydrogen and derivative transport methods, compressed hydrogen pipelines are associated with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions [76], with low energy requirement and compression being easy to decarbonise. Other derivatives, like ammonia and LOHC, require more energy, with some of the processing and transport methods being hard-to-decarbonise [77]. As Haber-Bosch synthesis accounts for approximately one third of all energy consumed in the ammonia production process [78], it is critical that any future ammonia plants are designed to run on low-carbon energy. However, only a limited amount of work has been done on electrifying ammonia synthesis and cracking [79]. A 2022 E4Tech research paper found that low-carbon ammonia would not necessarily meet the UK Low Carbon Hydrogen Standard even if electricity were to be used for ammonia synthesis [76]. Ammonia and most LOHCs are toxic to humans and marine ecosystem, with further sustainability and environmental concerns detailed in the Table 14.

Industrial feedstock

Economic implications

Low-carbon hydrogen can be integrated into ammonia and oil refining processes without significant modifications to existing equipment. This infrastructure readiness may offer cost benefits. As highlighted by stakeholders, there is better economic case for using ammonia directly compared to reconverting it to hydrogen. This is because costs and efficiency losses associated with reconversion, also known as dehydrogenation, can be avoided [80]. In Table 4, ammonia production and refining are not assigned economic RAG ratings due to the lack of a viable low-carbon alternative for reference. The future cost competitiveness of synthetic methanol remains uncertain, given the unknowns surrounding hydrogen and biogenic CO₂. Existing research, however, suggests that bio-based methanol could be produced at a cost up to 55% lower than synthetic methanol [13]. Conventional methanol plants can also operate on bio-feedstock. The economic competitiveness of green steel varies, with a RAG rating of green and amber, depending on the chosen technology. Despite high costs, DRI technology is expected to capture a growing share of the green steel market due to its carbon neutrality. As sustainability becomes a priority, hydrogen-based iron reduction will likely become more cost competitive, gradually reducing reliance on highly polluting blast furnaces [81].

Technical feasibility

In contrast to ammonia and refining plants, synthetic methanol production necessitates significant infrastructure investment or substantial upgrades. The process requires the capture and storage of high purity biogenic CO₂, with the technology currently at a TRL of 8-9 [13]. These plants operate at high efficiencies, ranging from 89 to 95% [82]. However, multiple stakeholders have emphasised the growing need for strategic planning, especially on regional scale, due to the geographical misalignment between biogenic CO₂ and hydrogen supplies which is a challenge to efficient production. For steel production, electrolytic hydrogen has been successfully demonstrated for DRI, but it has not yet reached commercial scale (TRL 7) [83]. Currently, it is estimated that less than 1% of steel in Europe is produced using DRI [84], with the majority of planned DRI projects yet to be operational [85]. Steel production in Scotland has declined in recent years, with annual output falling below 6,000 tonnes of crude steel [86]. Although some plants have outlined their decarbonisation strategies, the path to fully decarbonising Scottish steelmaking remains uncertain. When asked about technical challenges, most stakeholders were not concerned about early-stage technical maturity. Stakeholders suggested that the complexity of the planning and permitting process and the length of consideration are more significant bottlenecks in project development.

The use of low-carbon hydrogen in oil refining and fertiliser production presents minimal technical challenges, as the transition primarily involves fuel switching. INEOS intends to use low-carbon hydrogen, starting as early as 2029 [87]. However, with no ammonia and fertiliser production facilities in Scotland, interest in ammonia production is limited. Meanwhile, plans to establish a renewable methanol plant in Scotland by GEG and Proman are underway [88].

Sustainability

Hydrogen has been used as industrial feedstock for decades, with strict adherence to safety regulations by producers and users. Beyond the environmental benefits associated with fuel switching and decarbonisation, hydrogen also plays a crucial role in desulphurisation which prevents sulphur oxide emissions and reduces the risk of acid rain. While some fugitive emissions may occur (see Table 14), regulations and commercial incentives are in place to minimise these. Further details on environmental impact are detailed in Appendix C.

High temperature heat

Economic viability

Hydrogen has a high gravimetric energy density of 120 MJ/kg compared to 44 MJ/kg of natural gas [89], making it an attractive option for decarbonising high temperature industrial heat. However, hydrogen’s low volumetric energy density compared to natural gas makes it more expensive to store and transport, due to the increased capacities required. For this reason, among others, transitioning to hydrogen as fuel comes with significant costs. For example, converting a furnace in the basic metals sector to hydrogen would cost approximately £730,000 for 10 MW of capacity [10]. It is estimated that £2.7 billion in capital investment would be required to convert UK industrial sites and equipment. CCUS is also considered relatively high cost even though costs are expected to decline with technology maturity [90]. Our stakeholder engagement confirmed that CCUS technologies will become more cost-effective with scale and concentration of demand. The carbon capture process itself is the most expensive component accounting for 80% of the total costs [90]. On the contrary, bio-based fuels are widely available, scalable and cost-competitive in certain locations. Our stakeholder engagement highlighted that while bio-based fuels are widely available today, feedstocks are limited, preventing larger-scale and widespread adoption in the future.

Technical feasibility

Most industrial equipment, such as boilers, kilns, ovens, furnaces, has been demonstrated to be compatible with hydrogen through the Hy4Heat project [10]. While the technology is available, it has yet to be demonstrated at a commercial scale (TRL 7-8; industrial fuel switching). Minor technical challenges persist, including issues with pipe sizes, flue gas composition and different heat transfer characteristics [91]. Additional details on hydrogen heating technical challenges are in Table 13. Many natural gas-fire gas furnaces can be retrofitted, with only certain components requiring modification [91] [92]. However, retrofit options and associated GHG and cost savings depend on the end use sector and the complexity of the industrial site. Our stakeholder engagement confirmed that more trials and demonstration projects are needed to increase the technical readiness of hydrogen technologies and create learnings in a Scottish context.

CCUS systems can be integrated with existing boilers and heaters [93]. However, carbon capture infrastructure requires large investment. The UK’s geological advantage and access to depleted hydrocarbon fields provide a competitive advantage for carbon storage [94]. As pointed out by stakeholders, scale is critical for operating CCUS systems cost-effectively. Therefore, these systems must be strategically located, near concentrated demand, favourable geology and potential biogenic CO₂ offtakers. Although large-scale CCUS projects are not yet operational in Scotland, the Acorn Project has advanced directly to Track 2 of the UK Government’s Cluster Sequencing Programme. By reusing the existing hydrocarbon infrastructure, the Acorn project aims to capture and store between 5 and 10 Mtpa of CO₂under the seabed by 2030 [95].

Hydrogen boiler and indirect dryer	Hydrogen direct dryers and ovens, furnaces	Kilns	Carbon capture (depending on technology)	Biomass technologies
TRL 7 [96]	TRL 4 [96]	TRL 5 [97]	TRL 6-9 [98]	TRL 9[99]

Table 9: Technology Readiness Level of selected high temperature technologies

Solid biomass is a well-established technology, with most biomass boilers, kilns and furnaces achieving a TRL of 9 [99]. While the majority of biomass is currently used to generate electricity, over 37% is utilised to produce heat [100]. Given that CCUS and hydrogen technologies are not yet commercially available, many industrial plants aiming for long term decarbonisation opt for biomass. Unlike hydrogen, biomass can be stored at ambient pressure and temperatures. However, biomass technologies are generally unsuitable for direct heating applications, such as kilns, furnaces and dryers, as they may affect the product quality [99].

Sustainability

Burning hydrogen does not produce CO_2, but it can generate increased levels of nitrogen oxides (NOx) compared to natural gas combustion due to the higher temperatures used [101]. Nitrogen oxides are a mixture of gases, worsening air pollution, impacting human health and, reacting with other gases, indirectly contributing to global warming. However, research indicates that the higher stable combustion temperature of hydrogen may offset NOx emissions [102]. This is because the increased air to fuel ratio enabled by hydrogen leads to lower combustion temperatures which in turn reduces NOx emissions [102]. While CCUS technologies cannot capture 100% of CO₂ emissions, pairing them with biomass kilns and furnaces may result in negative emissions. Additional details on sustainability benefits and challenges are provided in Table 14.

Transport

Economic implications

For LDVs, Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) achieving cost parity with fossil fuel powered LDVs before 2040 will be challenging, unless the fuel cell costs decrease due to higher volume production. When looking at 5-year total cost of ownership, fuel cell powered and battery electric powered LDVs will likely be close or marginally lower than fossil fuel powered LDVs by 2040 [103]. The Advanced Propulsion Centre conducted a battery and fuel cell vehicle cost comparison for a range of vehicle types. Findings included that fuel cell powered vans will be the preferred technology type by 2030 [104].

Fossil methanol has an established global market, with synthetic methanol production growing each year [105]. Existing ships and vessels that run on liquid fossil fuels, like diesel and kerosene, can be retrofitted to run on low-carbon, synthetic liquid fuels, like methanol, allowing owners to avoid the capital cost of a new ship. Although sales of methanol dual-fuel ships have significantly increased in recent years [106], the high cost of synthetic methanol may change commercial incentives [107]. Our stakeholder engagement also suggests that ammonia will be the dominant maritime fuel in the short and medium-term due to the lower cost of the fuel. This is in line with the analysis of the IEA estimating the cost of synthetic methanol production to be 25 to 100% higher than the production cost of low-carbon ammonia [107]. The difference in fuel costs is partially due to the high cost and limited availability of biogenic CO₂, making methanol ships uncompetitive in the long-term, especially once ammonia technologies are mature. This is despite the higher transport and storage cost of ammonia, requiring cooling and compliance with a range of national and international regulations.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA) the average price of jet fuel in 2022 was roughly £3.18 per gallon, a 149% increase on the previous year, yet comparatively, in 2022, the current average price of SAF within the US was £7 per gallon [108]. While the IATA estimates that all SAF products are 2-4 times more expensive than alternative aviation fuels [108], costs could reduce with the emerging SAF mandate.

Technical feasibility

Hydrogen fuel cells have faster refuelling times than Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs), making them well suited for long heavy-duty trips [16]. Fuel cells also have other potential applications in maritime, rail and aviation (HyFlyer) sectors. The Scottish Government has funded multiple hydrogen buses in Aberdeen that have been successfully implemented since 2015 [109]. On the whole, fuel cells have a high TRL, however this can vary slightly by use case. For example, the Aerospace Technology Institute label a generic fuel cell as TRL 8, with a fuel cell in aviation use cases at TRL 5 [110].

Ships can be retrofitted for ammonia engines easier than for fuel cells, which need a complete makeover of the engine infrastructure. Ammonia blends of 70% have been successfully implemented [111] in certain engines. The energy transfer chain of ammonia has a number of conversions resulting in efficiency losses. From the initial renewable energy produced, 17% will make it to the ship’s propeller [112]. On the other hand, it is more complicated to produce synthetic fuels in large quantities limiting the long-term applications. Ammonia must be stored at -33◦C. This gives e-fuels a storage advantage, as the conditions are much milder and not different to the current fuels used. The IEA’s report on International Shipping reports that in 2022, 90 (11% by tonnage) new-build orders were for ammonia-ready vessels, 43 (7%) were for methanol vessels and 3 were for hydrogen-ready vessels [113]. SAF encompasses a range of technologies or SAF production pathways, detailed in Table 10.

TECHNOLOGY	TECHNOLOGY READINESS
Hydrogen fuel cell engine in light vehicles	TRL of 9
Hydrogen fuel cell engine in heavy vehicles	TRL of 7-9
Sustainable Aviation Fuel	TRL of 9 (HEFA)
Low-carbon methanol as a maritime fuel	TRL of 9
Low-carbon ammonia as a maritime fuel	TRL of 9

Table 10: Technology readiness of transport technologies

Sustainability

Whilst SAFs release carbon when burned, they could reduce carbon emissions by 80% over the lifecycle compared to traditional jet fuel [114], while having similar combustion characteristics and safety considerations. Ammonia burns less easily and is less flammable than conventional shipping fuels, and therefore is safer from a health and safety perspective [115]. Hydrogen fuel cells do not result in any emissions of greenhouse gases when in use [116]. Further sustainability benefits and challenges are detailed in the Table 14.

Power generation

Economic implications

The capital cost associated with large scale hydrogen peaking plants is estimated to be between £350 and £600 per kW, whereas capital costs associated with fossil fuel based peaking plants is between £300-600 per kW [117] [118]. The overall cost of electricity, however, will depend on several factors, for example, load factor, efficiency of the turbine, heat and water recovery [119]. While large scale hydrogen power plants can technically provide both mid-merit and peaking generation, they are expected to be cost competitive when running as a peaking plant and below a load factor of 20-30% [118] [120]. This is due to higher operating costs compared to low-carbon alternatives. Despite additional costs, there is an economic case for retrofitting existing natural gas power plants with CCS (Table 17). This is because retrofitting is estimated to extend the lifetime of a power plant by 10 years, resulting in substantially lower capital costs [23]. The estimated cost of retrofit is around £110 per kW compared to the new-build gas turbine’s capital cost of £740 per kW [120]. Due to increasing scale and simplification, it is estimated that the cost of CCS-power plants could reduce by 45% after the first three installations, with technical innovation leading to an additional reduction of 5-10% thereafter [121]. With widely available biomass supply and highly mature technology, unabated biomass generation is currently the most prevalent among the selected technologies. However, as CCS technologies become commercially available, unabated biomass generation is anticipated to be phased out. This is due to the relatively high cost of power generation. While retrofitted hydrogen plants could reach a levelised cost as low as £65 per MWh in 2035, the Contract for Difference of biomass plants guarantees £100 per MWh (2012 prices) [23]. The levelized cost for unabated gas plants may reach £170-£180 per MWh while gas CCS plants’ levelized costs are estimated to be £75-£90 per MWh [23]. Despite this challenging economic case, biomass plants coupled with CCS technology are expected to have high potential due to substantial carbon benefits. While the cost of hydrogen-fired turbines could reduce over time, they are expected to be used for low load factor operation, with CCUS-enabled power generation running on higher load factors.

Technical feasibility

While only minor alterations are required to existing gas power plants to reach hydrogen/gas blends around 70% [122], 100% hydrogen power plants have more potential in the long term due to higher carbon benefits. Retrofit to 100% hydrogen plants is also technically feasible, with a few technical challenges including changes to pipes and combustors due to differences in hydrogen’s volumetric density. Ammonia is the least mature power generation technology among the four. A few projects have demonstrated the viability of co-firing up to 20% and 70% with coal and natural gas, respectively [123]. Some technical challenges such as flame stability, and the low combustion speed of ammonia do not only make ammonia-fired power generation less efficient than the baseline but also result in incompatibility with larger gas-turbines [124]. The main technical advantage of biomass power plants is that existing coal power plants can be easily retrofitted to run on biomass. Given high technical maturity, capacity for electrical generation from biomass in the UK reached 12% of all capacity in 2023 [125]. Despite high hydrogen potential, there is limited experience with hydrogen power generation in Scotland. The Peterhead Power Station is planned to be coupled with CCUS technology as part of the Acorn project, positioning the facility as one of the first CCUS-enabled gas power plants. In addition, there are eight major diesel generation sites in Scotland used as backup supply for remote locations [64] [126]. A few hydrogen power projects, like the Kirkwall Airport CHP, are operational in Scotland, but further trials are needed, particularly on remote Scottish Islands, to provide learnings of this sector in a Scottish context, according to our stakeholder engagement. Further technical details can be found in Table 17.

Sustainability

Main sustainability concerns include CO₂ leakage rate from underground reservoirs, ammonia’s toxicity and NOx emissions. Due to high carbon benefits, a 2018 CCC Biomass report concluded that available biomass should be used with BECCS applications ‘to the maximum extent possible’ [127]. Further sustainability challenges and benefits are detailed in Table 14.

Offtaker Market Assessment

Existing demand

Figure 15: Import of hydrogen in 2023 in selected countries [33]

Figure 16: Value of ammonia trade in EU, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. Source: Eurostat

Infrastructure log

Country	Name	Type	Description
Shetland, Scotland, UK	Sullom Voe	Terminal	Shetland has some of the most abundant wind resources in the UK but is somewhat isolated from the mainland grid. This makes development of curtailment options including green hydrogen a top priority. Sullom Voe is a deepwater port that already has three existing tanker jetties designed for ultra-large crude oil tankers and one for medium sized LPG tankers. It is suitable for ammonia export based on similarities to the technology currently in use at the terminal for LPG.
Orkney, Scotland, UK	Flotta Terminal	Terminal	Flotta Terminal has a crude oil import pipeline and a jetty. It has been earmarked as the location for Hydrogen Hub Orkney test facility, owing to its remote location and significant industrial space available in the immediate vicinity for hydrogen production. Approval has been obtained for a 220MW interconnector to the Scottish mainland in order to facilitate future offshore wind generation.
Scotland, UK	Port of Cromarty Firth	Port	Plans to produce, use and export (via LOH and liquefaction) hydrogen are already in development. The port has a depth of up to 14m and is able to provide more than 2000m quayside in an ideal location to serve several of the North East ScotWind option areas. It was awarded Green Freeport status in 2023 and this is expected to attract further investment in a number of offshore wind and hydrogen projects.
Scotland, UK	Outer Hebrides Hydrogen Hub		An expansion of the green hydrogen production capacity has been put forward in the updated Energy Strategy for the hub. The Stornoway Port Masterplan included development of a 400m long, 10m deep port, that could accommodate LPG/NH₃ gas carrier vessels that are unable to make use of the 6m port currently in operation. It is well placed to serve the northerly ScotWind option areas.
Scotland, UK	St Fergus Gas Terminal	Terminal	It is the central gathering hub for gas production from the Northern North Sea region and contains the SEGAL system and the SAGE gas terminal. Extensive international (Norway) and North Sea gas pipeline infrastructure have made the terminal the primary candidate for any new hydrogen export pipeline. The site is well positioned to receive any hydrogen produced offshore in the North Sea through these existing gas pipelines. The Acorn project intends to enable production of blue hydrogen, for the domestic market, next to the terminal, as a part of the “Hydrogen Coast” initiative.
Scotland, UK	Grangemouth/Hound point	Terminal (+ refinery)	The Hound point marine terminal appears to be the obvious export port suitable for the loading of VLGC. The company LNG9 have allegedly proposed a blue hydrogen/CSS project in the area already.
England, UK	Port of Immingham	Port	ABP and Air Products are collaborating to construct a jetty at the port that is capable of handling green hydrogen.
England, UK	Stanlow Terminals	Terminal	There has been an announcement of an intention to open a major new import terminal for green ammonia in the port of Liverpool. The new terminal is expected to be able to import and store in excess of one million tonnes (39.4 TWh_HHV) of green hydrogen per year.
England, UK	Teesport	Port	While plans on low-carbon ammonia imports are unclear, Teesport is the main point for ammonia imports for fertiliser production in Teesside.
Antwerp, Belgium	Antwerp NH3 Import Terminal	Terminal	Aims to become a large hydrogen import hub and has excellent connections to the Shell and Exxon Mobil refineries and three steam crackers. A conceptual ammonia storage facility is planned for completion here in 2027.
Zeebrugge, Belgium	Zeebrugge New Molecules development	Other	Conceptual ammonia cracking facility planned for completion in 2030.
Brunsbüttel, Germany	Ammonia Brunsbüttel	Port	Ammonia cracking facility in the feasibility study stage. It has a projected capacity of 300 kt ammonia and a projected 2026 completion date.
Wilhelmshaven, Germany	Green Wilhelmshaven	Other	Ammonia cracking site with an announced size of 295 kt H₂/year).
Hamburg, Germany	Ammonia import at Hamburg	Port	Conceptual ammonia cracking and storage facility at the port of Hamburg – planned for completion in 2026.
Maasvlakte, Netherlands	ACE Terminal	Terminal	Conceptual ammonia cracking and storage facility intended for completion in 2026.
Rotterdam, Netherlands	H2Sines.RDAM	Other	LH2 regassification facility in the feasibility study stage, with an announced size of 100 tpd LH2, with upscaling to 300 tpd and an intended start date of 2028.
Maasvlakte, Netherlands	Global Energy Storage (GES)	Other	Ammonia storage facility in the conceptual stage.
Maasvlakte, Netherlands	OCI Import terminal	Terminal	A terminal that is expected to be expanded to a capacity of 1.8Mt of ammonia
Maasvlakte, Netherlands	Koole & Horisont Energi	Other	Ammonia storage in feasibility study stage.

Table 11: Infrastructure opportunities in Scotland, the rest of the UK and selected European countries

Techno-economic tables

	Round-trip efficiency (%)	Storage temperature (°C)	Gravimetric energy density (MJ/KG)	Volumetric energy density (MJ/L)	TRL	MRL	CRL
Compressed hydrogen pipeline transport	37	Ambient	Depends on pressure	6.456	7-9	N/A	N/A
Liquified hydrogen	9-22	-252.8	120-142	~70.8	6-9	3-6	1-5
Liquified ammonia	22	– 33	21.18- 22.5	107.7-120	7-9;6-7	4-6;3-4	1-5;~1
LOHC	~18	Ambient	7.35	5.66	4-7	1-4	~1
Metal hydrides (magnesium hydride)	N/A	Ambient	26.32	86-109	4-7	1-4	~1

Table 12: Technical table of hydrogen carriers

Sources: [128]; [129]; [130]; [131]; [77]; [132]; [133]

In order to attract investment, hydrogen transport must be financially profitable within a specifically defined niche. A number of methods of hydrogen transport are available, all with differing properties which determine how cheaply and safely the hydrogen can be transported. Although hydrogen is incredibly dense by mass, it takes up a lot of volume, which makes it expensive to transport. It can therefore be compressed or even liquified to decrease the price of transport, or alternatively it can be transported in the form of other substances that contain a large amount of hydrogen but have different properties (for instance density) that make them cheaper to transport. Physical properties such as the volumetric density and storage temperature of each carrier are important factors that would have to be accounted for in the supply chain. On the other hand, technology readiness level (TRL), market readiness level (MRL) and commercial readiness level (CRL) are all technoeconomic properties that reflect how mature each technology is and whether the carrier is likely to be financially viable. Technoeconomic properties are not fixed in the same way as physical properties and so as the technologies develop, certain carriers may become increasingly viable. Ultimately both physical and technoeconomic properties of each transport option must be weighed up and used by decision makers to predict the best course of action.

Hydrogen heat technical challenges

Challenge	Description
Difference in flame speed	The combustion of hydrogen results in a much greater flame speed compared to the combustion of natural gas (1.7 ms^-1compared to 0.4 ms^-1). If existing natural gas combustion equipment is used to combust hydrogen, there is a risk that the flame speed will exceed the gas velocity exiting the burner nozzle. This can cause an event called a “flashback” which can damage the nozzle and other components of the burner.
Adiabatic flame temperature	Hydrogen flames are much hotter than natural gas flames. This is referred to as a large difference in “stochiometric adiabatic flame temperature”. The adiabatic flame temperature of hydrogen is 2,182°C, whereas it is 1,937°C for natural gas – a difference of 245 °C. This temperature increase poses a risk to natural gas combustion equipment if operated with a hydrogen fuel source and additionally increases the NO_xemissions.
Flame emissivity	Hydrogen flames radiate more UV radiation in comparison to natural gas flames, which makes them paler in colour and more difficult to see.
Safety considerations	Hydrogen has a higher flammability limit than natural gas and due to its molecular size (the smallest of all molecules), hydrogen is more prone to leakage. This is most problematic in poorly ventilated or confined situations where the leaking hydrogen cannot diffuse into the atmosphere and thus poses a risk of explosion.

Table 13: Technical challenges with high temperature heat equipment

Sources: [134]; [135]

Environmental log

Impact Sub-category	Description		Hydrogen derivative
		Emissions reduction
NO_x	Nitrogen oxides are a mixture of gases, worsening air pollution, impacting human health and, reacting with other gases, indirectly contributing to global warming. Ammonia typically generates high NOx levels during combustion, however recent research and development suggests that ammonia can be used to reduce NOx emissions at the point of combustion [136].		Hydrogen, ammonia
CO₂	Combusting ammonia significantly reduces CO₂ emissions, and any CO₂produced can be stored in geological storage in Scotland that have reliable leakage rates below 0.1% [137].
Fugitive hydrogen emissions	Hydrogen leakages in the NH₃-H₂ conversion process are estimated at 5% but stringent protocols and advanced processes are designed to minimise this risk [138] [139].
CO₂	Utilises captured CO₂ in production, offsetting any released CO₂ and lowering atmospheric concentrations [140].		Synthetic methanol
SO_x and NO_x	Produces fewer NOx and SOx during combustion compared to fossil fuels [141].		Synthetic methanol
CO₂	Use of SAFs reduces lifecycle CO₂ emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel [114] and SAFs made from biomass or waste materials can be carbon neutral [142].		SAF
Indirect emissions	SAF as a drop in solution, is compatible with existing engines, reducing additional emissions by eliminating the need for new infrastructure [143].		SAF
		Air quality
Particulate Matter	Upon combustion ammonia produces significantly less particulate matter [144].		Ammonia
Particulate Matter	Burns cleaner than fossil fuels, producing less particulate matter [13].		e-methanol
Particulate Matter	Typically generates fewer particulates and soot due to lower amounts of aromatics and sulphur [145] [146]. Evidence shows a reduction in contrail cloudiness when using SAFs [147].		SAF
	Resource depletion and land use
Resource demand	The ammonia-hydrogen conversion process is energy intensive, requires significant volumes of water and involves extracting critical minerals for catalysts, potentially impacting direct or indirect land use changes [148] [149]/		Ammonia
Land Use Competition	Challenges arise if crops are specifically grown to capture biogenic CO₂, leading to land use competition. Thus, other CO₂ sources, like concentrated or engineered carbon capture, are preferred [150].		e-methanol
Use of renewable feedstock	SAF can be produced from waste materials or renewable sources like algae or plant oils, reducing the need for virgin resources and minimising land use competition [145], [151]. However, using food crops for SAF production displaces food crops, leading to the expansion of cropland into forests and grasslands, which reduces natural carbon sequestration [151] .		SAF
	Ecotoxity
Environmental contamination	While ammonia is linked to eutrophication and acidification of soil and water bodies which impacts ecosystems [152], the effect is highly dependent on several factors and relatively higher concentration of ammonia [112].		Ammonia
Environmental contamination	Methanol is less toxic to the environment than many conventional fuels. Spills or leaks are less harmful and easier to remediate due to its quick evaporation. In addition, methanol does not dissociate into ions when dissolved in water, avoiding acidification [153].		e-methanol
Environmental contamination	Current reports indicate potential toxicity to aquatic life and suggest that certain SAF production methods may contribute to eutrophication [154].		SAF
	Human / General toxicity
Acute toxicity	Ammonia is highly toxic and corrosive, posing life threatening health risks upon exposure though acute toxicity is usually a result of direct contact with it [155].		Ammonia
Flammability	Ammonia is not highly flammable but can form explosive mixtures with air at certain uncontrolled concentrations [155].		Ammonia
Chemical exposure	Prolonged, direct exposure to methanol via inhalation or ingestion is harmful to human health but small quantities are not [156].		e-methanol
Flammability	Methanol is highly flammable and poses a significant fire hazard [156].		e-methanol
Chemical exposure	Some SAF production pathways may produce volatile organic compounds or harmful substances, though in minimal quantities [157].		SAF
Combustion emissions	Whilst SAFs produce less particulate matter and NOx than conventional aviation fuels, they still emit fine particles and NOx which can cause respiratory issues when inhaled [146].		SAF

Table 14: Environmental log

	HVDC interconnectors	Hydrogen pipelines	Liquified hydrogen	Ammonia	LOHC	Metal hydride
Energy transfer capacity per project (current maximum)	12 GW [65]	20-30 GW [65]	Depends on ships	Depends on ships	Depends on LOHC type and conditions of transport Example of LOHC type (H-18 DBT): 47 MWh [158]
Technical advantage	Technical maturity and experience	Long-duration, inter-seasonal storage. Potential to decarbonise industrial processes directly. Long-duration, inter-seasonal storage. Potential to decarbonise industrial processes directly.	Long-duration, inter-seasonal storage. Potential to decarbonise industrial processes directly.	Long-duration, interseasonal storage. Potential to decarbonise industrial processes directly.Long-duration, inter-seasonal storage. Potential to decarbonise industrial processes directly.	Long-duration, inter-seasonal storage.	Long-duration, inter-seasonal storage.
Technical advantage	High voltage capacity with low energy to heat losses High power transmission capacity therefore low power losses Efficiency over long distances [65] [159]	Can transport large volumes of energy over long distances [65]	More efficient for long distance transport. Space efficiency by allowing more storage by volume relative to gaseous hydrogen [160]	Established global market High volumetric density thus easier to store and transport Efficiency over long distances [161]	Hydrogenation is exothermic, therefore, while efficiencies are low, heat recovery can increase overall efficiency. [162]	Operates at near room temperature and atmospheric pressure) Enhanced safety during operation No leakage [163]
Technical challenge	Congestion issues Inefficiency over long distances [65] Wind pattern correlation across the North Sea	Metal pipelines are susceptible to embrittlement (mainly an issue for distribution pipes) [65]	Requires high energy demand for liquefaction and regasification of hydrogen Leakage through boil off is common [160]	Intermittent ammonia production is challenging. Conversion and reconversion process are energy taxing [161]	Needs to be purified Needs to be returned after dehydrogenation. Dehydrogenation is endothermic [162]	Tanks can be heavy, due to metal hydrides’ low mass-specific storage density Dehydrogenation requires high temperatures [163]

Table 15: Technical table of hydrogen derivative technologies

Name	Feedstocks	Notes
HEFA – Hydroprocessed Ester and Fatty Acids	Waste and residue fats (vegetable oil) Purposefully grown plants	TRL 8-9. Already used commercially in aviation, as well as in road transport, so pressures on supply exist.
AtJ – Alcohols to Jet	Agricultural and forest residues Sugar or starch crops	TRL 7-8. AtJ (and Gas+FT) can are considered advanced biofuels if produced from REDII compliant feedstocks.
Gas + FT – Biomass Gasification + Fischer-Tropsch	Same as AtJ (listed above) Municipal solid waste	Gas+FT has significant carbon reduction and supply potential.
PtL – Power to Liquid	Hydrogen Carbon dioxide	The CO2 can be sourced from biomass, waste processes (with CCS) or via direct air capture.

Table 16: An overview of SAF production pathways [77]

	TRL [164]	Efficiency (%)	Levelized cost in 2035
Unabated gas (CCGT)	9	57	170-180
CCUS (CCGT)	8	50	75-90
Retrofit hydrogen	7	55	£65-100/MWh
New-built hydrogen	7	55	£90-125/MWh
Unabated biomass	9	20 [165]	£98 per MWh [166] and existing low-carbon contracts are for £100 per MWh (in 2012£)
BECCS	6-7	31-38 [167]	Approximately $170/MWh [168] OR 193 per MWh (2018 prices) [166]
Ammonia	4	50 – 60 Ammonia: zero-carbon fertiliser, fuel and energy store (royalsociety.org)	Approximately between $167 and $197 pwe MWh at 25% power plant capacity factor in 2040 [169]

Table 17: Techno-economic table of power generation technologies

Policy tables

UK Regulatory Barriers

	Policy gap	Description
1	HSE	The safety case for hydrogen still needs to be signed off by the HSE in the UK. This will remove uncertainty and confusion about the potential role of hydrogen in decarbonising heat, and other applications. The uncertainty that currently exists stops stakeholders from forward planning and making strategic decisions.
2	ADR regulation	Hydrogen transport is currently prohibited through ten road tunnels in the UK based on its classification under the European ADR rules (carriage of dangerous goods by road). Reviewing hydrogen-specific ADR regulation, along with restrictions for ammonia and LOHCs, transport efficiency could be significantly increased. However, any changes to these regulations should be dependent on safety cases being proven.
3	Offshore licensing	While it is confirmed that the North Sea Transition Authority will be the licensing and decommissioning body for offshore hydrogen projects [170], the industry seeks more clarity on the timeline and details of future hydrogen regime.
4	Gas Safety Management Regulation (GSMR)	GSMR currently prohibits injecting more than 0.1% hydrogen into the networks. This will need to be updated to unlock the UK’s line pack capacity. The UK Government will make a policy decision in 2023 on whether to allow blending of up to 20% hydrogen by volume into the gas distribution networks [16].
5	Planning and consenting	Our research suggests that developers face a number of constraints surrounding the delivery of critical regulatory consents, particularly planning and environmental permitting. Delays around consenting can significantly extend the lead time of hydrogen storage projects. Some stakeholders suggested streamlining the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Project (NSIP) regime in England and accelerating the consenting process through increasing funding to relevant planning offices across the UK.
6	Gas Act 1986	With no comprehensive hydrogen-specific regulation in place, onshore hydrogen is regulated under the Gas Act 1986 and Planning Act 2008. As hydrogen is defined as “gas” under the Gas Act, most transportation, storage, and supply regulatory requirements of natural gas applies to hydrogen as well.
7	Control of Major Accident Hazard (COMAH) regulation	Control of Major Accident Hazard (COMAH) applies to hydrogen and most of its derivatives, such as ammonia, methylcyclohexane and toluene. Magnesium hydride, however, is not considered a dangerous substance under COMAH. In Scotland, COMAH regulations are enforced by the COMAH Competent Authority.

Table 18: Policy gaps in the UK

International Hydrogen Policy Log

Region	Policy name	Description
European Union	Net Zero Target	The European Union aims to meet net zero emissions by 2050.
European Union	Hydrogen Strategy	The hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral Europe was adopted in July 2020.
European Union	RePowerEU	The European Commission implemented the REPowerEU Plan to phase out reliance on Russian fossil fuel imports following the invasion of Ukraine.
European Union	REDIII Targets	Transport: RED III fuel suppliers must achieve a 14.5% reduction in GHG emissions associated with their fuels or achieve at least 29% renewables share in the fuel supply. In addition, at least 5.5% of the fuel mix must be composed of advanced biofuels and RFNBOs (combined binding target). Industry: The EUs CBAM Regulation (10th May 2023) will be transitioned in during the period of 2023-2026 and then full force from 2026 onwards. The EU’s Fit for 55 proposals include a 50% renewable share for hydrogen used in industry. RED III – Industry must procure at least 42% of its hydrogen from renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBOS) by 2030, though countries that can achieve a fossil-free hydrogen mix of at least 77% by 2030 can see that target reduced by 20%.
European Union	H2Global	H2Global is live (1st auction closed 2023) and formed through H2 purchase and sale agreements through a central body. Managed windows for funding applications through 10-year hydrogen purchase agreements, competition-based procurement process. As of 06/23, H2Global and the Hydrogen Investment Bank have been linked. Working on a European auction open to all EU countries.
European Union	Hydrogen Bank	Acts through an auction system, fixed price payment per kg. Fixed premium per kg hydrogen produced for a maximum of 10 years of operation. Auctions launched under the Innovation Fund in the autumn of 2023.
European Union	Innovation Fund	The innovation fund hydrogen focussed from Nov 2022. Acts through a competitive bidding process – max bid 4 Euro per kg* – and via waves of calls for proposals.
European Union	IPCEI	Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI) are live and provided in waves of grant funding. A requirement for projects must be for them to show they are financially viable without subsidies.
European Union	AFIR	AFIR passed March 2023, detailing one HRS to be deployed every 200km along Ten-T core.
European Union	Fitfor55	Fit for 55: 2.6% target for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO) in transport by 2030
European Union	EU ETS	The EU Emission Trading Scheme is a “cap and trade” system that limits the amount of greenhouse gases which can be emitted within the EU.
European Union	EU MoUs	The EU has signed MoUs with Japan, Egypt, Mauritania (and others) around hydrogen including export/imports.
European Union	RED Low Carbon Hydrogen Standard	3.38 kg CO2-eq/kg hydrogen (28 gCO2e per MJ) (70% lower compared to emissions from fossil fuels). Two delegated acts under Renewable Energy Directive published by the Commision in Feb-23 – (i) principle of additionality, (ii) methodology for calculating GGG emissions. Rules to apply to imports.
United Kingdom	Net Zero Target	Net zero by 2050. 78% emission reduction by 2035. Mandated in law. Net Zero power system by 2030.
United Kingdom	UK Hydrogen Strategy	Production target of 10 GW by 2030, with at least 6 GW of this coming from electrolytic production.
United Kingdom	HPBM	Hydrogen Production Business Model – a CFD funding mechanism bridging the difference between producing low-carbon hydrogen gas and the price of natural gas. Funding provided through allocation rounds.
United Kingdom	LCHS	The UK Low Carbon Hydrogen Standard sets a carbon intensity threshold for hydrogen production of 20 gCO2e/MJ (2.4 kg CO2-eq/kg hydrogen). If the hydrogen produced meets this standard, it can be deemed low-carbon and is eligible for government subsidy.
United Kingdom	UK ETS	The UK’s own ETS scheme since leaving the EU.
United Kingdom	SAF Mandate	The UK has formed a SAF mandate stipulating set targets for percentage shares of SAF, and specific production pathways (such as PtL). Headline figure is that 10% of UK aviation fuel will be SAF by 2030.
United Kingdom	RTFO	The Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation
Germany	Net Zero Target	Net zero by 2045. Emissions shall move to net negative after 2050. Germany has set the preliminary targets of cutting emissions by at least 65 percent by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and 88 percent by 2040 Mandated in law.
Germany	National Hydrogen Strategy	The German hydrogen national strategy was released in 2020 before being an update was released in 2023.
Germany	H2 Global	H2 Global – value €4 billion. Initial auction of 900mn euros launched in Dec 2022 for H2 derivatives. Government plans to make a further 3.5 billion euros available for new bidding rounds with durations up to 2036.
Germany	Carbon Tax	CO2 tax (introduced in 2023) for Avgas and Jet A-1.
Germany	Hydrogen Mobility Targets	Targets include fuel cell trucks, 20 HRS’s and passenger cars, fuel cell buses for public transportation, and the operation of the first inland ship operating on hydrogen by 2025.
Germany	National MOUs	Several MoUs signed surrounding imports of hydrogen and ammonia into the country – Mauritania MoU could equate to 8 million tonnes/year.
The Netherlands	Net Zero Target	Net zero by 2050. 55% CO2 reduction by 2030. In law.
The Netherlands	National Hydrogen Strategy	The Netherlands hydrogen strategy was released in 2020.
The Netherlands	National Climate Agreement	The national climate agreement contains set targets for fuel cell HDVs, passenger cars and hydrogen refuelling stations.
The Netherlands	Carbon Levy	In 2021, introduced carbon levy for industry – complementary to EU ETS – road mapped to 2030 currently.
The Netherlands	Guarantees of Origin Scheme	Green hydrogen Guarantees of Origin operational from Oct-22, following a Bill (May-22) and trial (summer-22).
The Netherlands	H2Global	300mn euro specific funding from H2Global, including funding for ammonia.
The Netherlands	National MoUs	In 2020, the US and the Netherlands signed a statement of intent to collaborate on hydrogen. The Minister of Energy of Chile and the State Secretary for Economic Affairs and Climate Policy signed a joint statement on collaboration in the field of green hydrogen import and export (July 2021). The UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure and the Dutch Ministry for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation have signed a Memorandum of Understanding on hydrogen energy. As part of their Joint Economic Committee, the UAE and the Netherlands have been in discussions to identify common interests and create a partnership for decarbonisation of the energy sector and increasing the use of clean hydrogen (March 2022).
Belgium	Net Zero Target	Net Zero by 2050, 55% emissions reductions target in place for 2030.
Belgium	National Hydrogen Strategy	Hydrogen strategy enacted firstly in 2021, with an update in 2022. Both strategies focussed on positioning Belgium as an import and transit location for low-carbon molecules into Europe. The country will remain dependent on energy imports in various forms to cover its domestic demand, estimating between 2 and 6 TWh of renewable hydrogen (or derivatives) in 2030 and between 100 and 165 TWh in 2050
Belgium	Energy Transition Fund	The Energy Transition Fund will fund until 2025, providing 20-30 million euros in support. The federal government has also earmarked 60 million euros (including 50 million euros from the national recovery and resilience plan) to invest and support projects to scale up innovative, low-carbon technologies.
Belgium	Hydrogen Act	The Hydrogen Act establishes a regulatory framework for the transport of hydrogen via pipelines. The act intends to foster the growth of the Belgian hydrogen market and the required hydrogen transport infrastructure.

Table 19: International Hydrogen Policy Log

Demand mapping methodology

Overview of Approach

The demand mapping analysis is carried out for five regions and six sectors for the years 2030 and 2045. The analysis only considers low-carbon hydrogen and derivate demand, and not hydrogen demand that does not meet sustainability criteria in the region. The regions covered are chosen based on the regional mapping carried out earlier in this project and include:

The EU
Germany
Belgium
The Netherlands
Scotland, England and Wales

The sectors covered are the ones in which hydrogen may play a role, with a focus on sectors where the role of derivatives and products could be greatest. These include:

Industry
Power Generation
Road Transport
Aviation (with a focus on power to liquid fuels)
International Maritime (with a focus on ammonia and methanol)
Heat

The analysis has taken a high-level approach to develop three scenarios (low, central and high) for each region and sector. In general, the approach taken for the EU and EU national geographies aligns due to similar overarching policy and data sources. While the approach for England and Wales often differs due to different policy and assumptions.

The EU and EU National Geographies (Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands) Sectoral Approach

Industry

The demand mapping for industry utilises data from Eurostat Simplified Energy Balances [171] which gives total demand for energy by industrial sector in the EU and the three EU nation states considered. The change in energy demand and suitability for hydrogen in each sector is based three scenarios developed in N-ZIP model produced for the Climate Change Committee (CCC) [172]. While this source does not give data based on EU suitability, it does give broad indications of sectoral suitability for hydrogen compared to alternatives and is therefore used to produce a low, central and high range of suitability.

An alternative approach has been used for sectors that currently use hydrogen (predominantly the chemicals sector and the refining sector). This is partially due to the EU’s target to ensuring 42% of hydrogen use meets RFNBO criteria in 2030 [54], however it is worth noting that refining is excluded from this target. The approach for the chemicals sector is to use a combination of current estimates of hydrogen demand [173], and calculating the proportion of low-carbon hydrogen that is required to meet the RFNBO target, while assuming the CCC’s reduction in energy demand for the sector by 2030.

While the 42% target does not apply to refineries, it is expected that refining will be an early user of low-carbon hydrogen due to current demand, experience in handling hydrogen and RFNBOs used in refining contributing to RFNBO targets in the transport sector. Hydrogen Europe estimate that there are 1.2 Mt/year of clean hydrogen projects announced in the refining sector by 2030, representing 26% of current hydrogen demand [174]. Furthermore, current hydrogen demand makes up approximately 40% of total energy demand in the sector. For this reason, estimates of total energy demand that is clean hydrogen in 2030 of 5, 10 and 15% have been selected for 2030. All scenarios assume refineries operate on clean hydrogen by 2045.

Industrial Sector (*Different source / approach used for starred sectors)	Reduction in energy use 2022-2030	Proportion of total energy that is clean hydrogen in 2030	Reduction in energy use 2022-2045	Proportion of total energy that is clean hydrogen in 2045
Chemicals*	5-9%	8-9%	4-7%	24-29%
Construction	28-29%	0%	28%	71-80%
Food, beverages & tobacco	17-19%	0-7%	29-32%	15-25%
Iron and steel	0-6%	14-18%	29-36%	29-59%
Other industries	21-25%	0-4%	29-36%	18-37%
Mineral products	18-31%	3-7%	22-40%	25-28%
Non-ferrous metals	32-36%	0%	36-40%	26-28%
Oil and gas extraction	46-49%	4-10%	61-70%	47-50%
Paper, printing & publishing	21-26%	1-5%	44-49%	10-14%
Petroleum refineries*	20-22%	5-15%	29-35%	40%
Vehicles	27-30%	2-8%	29-35%	18-41%

Table 20: Trajectory of proportion of clean hydrogen used energy for the years 2030 and 2045

Industrial demand is broken down by product in 2030 based on applying RED III mandates to historic ammonia and methanol demand by region, developing scenarios based on historic high and low demand levels. Demand for 2045 is estimated, by assuming that all hydrogen demand for these products is low-carbon.

Power Generation

Hydrogen’s role in the power sector is uncertain and depends on policy incentives, infrastructure and technology readiness of turbines. This analysis assumes that total electricity generation in 2030 for the EU, Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands follows the estimates of generation in the MIX-CP scenario developed for European Green Deal Analysis [175]. This scenario was selected as it most closely aligns with policy measures that were agreed upon.

The analysis assumes that total electricity generation in 2045 follows the midpoint of the of the 2040 and 2050 values for the two scenario estimates in a recent European Commission report considering energy infrastructure configurations in Europe [176]. This estimate is used to develop a compound annual growth rate assumption of 4.2% for electricity generation in the EU between the 2030 estimate and 2045 assumption. This compound annual growth rate is applied to regional estimates in the MIX-CP scenario for Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands to estimate annual electricity generation in 2045.

It is broadly accepted that an electricity grid that is dominated by intermittent renewables will require low-carbon dispatchable generation to meet demand at times of low renewable generation. The CCC estimate that in the Balanced Pathway, 13% of electricity demand is met by low-carbon dispatchable power generation in 2045 [177]. However, the split between hydrogen and other options such as gas with CCUS or BECCS is unknown at this stage.

For the purposes of this analysis, the following proportions of electricity generation that are met with hydrogen are assumed. These include no hydrogen to power in 2030 due to the requirement for large scale hydrogen storage to be in place to operate hydrogen power at low load factors, which is its optimal role in the power system [178]. It is unlikely that there will be access to sufficient volumes of hydrogen storage in the 2030 timeframe due to the long lead times for large scale geological hydrogen storage [179]. Hydrogen power generation is assumed to have an efficiency of 48% [180].

Proportion of Total Power Demand that is met by Hydrogen	2030	2045
Low Scenario	0.0%	2.5%
Central Scenario	0.0%	5.0%
High Scenario	0.0%	7.5%

Table 21: Proportion of hydrogen in total power demand

Road Transport

The road transport analysis focuses on vans, buses and HGVs given that heavier vehicles are more suited to hydrogen and lighter vehicles are more suited to battery electric drivetrains. The low and the high scenario are based on the proportion of road transport energy consumption that is hydrogen in 2030 and 2045 in FES 2024 in the highest and lowest hydrogen deployment scenarios. The central scenario is estimated as the midpoint between these upper and lower bounds. The estimated demand for transport by these vehicle segments in 2030 is taken from the MIX-CP Scenario [175], for the EU, Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands.

Scenario	Proportion H2 2030	Reduction in Energy Demand 2030 – 2045	Proportion H2 2045
Low	0.4%	-66%	7.7%
Central	0.5%	-66%	17.7%
High	0.6%	-66%	27.8%

Table 22: Hydrogen Proportions of Energy Demand for Bus and Coach Transport

Scenario	Proportion H2 2030	Reduction in Energy Demand 2030 – 2045	Proportion H2 2045
Low	0.1%	-58%	0.7%
Central	0.1%	-53%	17.3%
High	0.2%	-49%	34.0%

Table 23: Hydrogen Proportions of Energy Demand for Heavy Goods and Light Commercial Vehicles

Aviation

The analysis on aviation focuses on e-fuels which are based on hydrogen combined with captured carbon. The analysis utilises estimates of future aviation fuel demand for the EU and the PtL sub mandate to estimate e-fuel demand in 2030 and 2045, based on a report from the European Union Aviation Safety Agency [181]. The value for total fuel demand in 2045 is estimated by taking the midpoint of the 2040 and 2050 values. This is used to estimate the central demand estimate.

EU Aviation	2030	2040	2045	2050
SAF Mandate (%)	5%	32%	38%	63%
PtL Sub-Mandate (%)	0.70%	8%	11%	28%
Total Fuel Demand (Mt)	46	46	45	44
SAF Supply (Mt)	2.3	14.8		27.7
PtL Supply (Mt)	0.3	3.7	5.0	12.3

Table 24: Projections for supply of SAF

The energy content of these e-fuels is then estimated using the value of 43 MJ/kg [182] to develop estimates in TWh. Both low and high scenarios assume the same mandate for PtL, but varying levels of fuel demand based on the EASA’s low and high aviation scenarios [181].

	2030	2045
Low Scenario Multiplier on Base Case	90%	84%
High Scenario Multiplier on Base Case	115%	124%

Table 25: Multipliers on base case, by scenario

The national estimates for Germany, Belgium and The Netherlands are estimated based on national airport traffic data in 2023 [183]. This assumes that the current mix of air traffic data remains constant over time.

International Maritime

The analysis focuses on international maritime due to its greater suitability for hydrogen, derivatives and products than domestic maritime. This is due to the longer distances travelled in larger ships for international maritime which is less suitable for electrification. The decarbonisation route for ships is uncertain and could be met with biofuels or synthetic fuels. Transport & Environment (T&E) have estimated different routes to decarbonisation that comply with the EU’s FuelEU policy [184]. Note that the analysis carried out for T&E was designed for containerships and different shipping segments may select different decarbonisation routes. However, the authors of the report deemed it to be a good enough proxy to provide a high-level estimate of the entire international shipping sector.

These T&E scenarios are used to estimate the upper and lower bounds of e-fuel deployment in 2030 and 2045. The central scenario is derived as the midpoint of these bounds. The EU’s policy ensures that there is a minimum of 2% RFBNOs from 2034 onwards.

Proportion of International Shipping Demand that is e-fuels	2030	2045
Proportion e-ammonia high (%)	1%	42%
Proportion e-methanol high (%)	4%	4%
Proportion e-ammonia central (%)	0%	21%
Proportion e-methanol central (%)	2%	2%
Proportion e-ammonia low (%)	0%	2%
Proportion e-methanol low (%)	0%	0%

Table 26: Proportion of international shipping demand that is e-fuels

These fuel proportions are applied to the estimated energy demand for international shipping. This is calculated using the CP-MIX scenario as this complies with the fit-for-55 regulation and most closely follows the current policy structure of the energy scenarios produced by the EU Commission [175]. As this scenario only produces estimates to 2030, the growth rate for international shipping energy demand for each region between 2025 and 2030 is applied to the period 2030 to 2045 to estimate international shipping energy demand in 2045. This is deemed appropriate as applying this carbon reduction trajectory from 2025-2030 to the emissions metric results in gross emissions of approximately 14% for the EU in 2050, which should be compatible with achieving net zero provided sufficient greenhouse gas removals are in place.

Heat

The demand for hydrogen in residential heating is highly uncertain and could be significant, or non-existent in 2045. For this reason, and a lack of policy certainty, high level assumptions have been made for hydrogen deployment for heat. It is likely that due to the high efficiency of heat pumps, hydrogen heat would, at most, play a supplementary role in the heating mix. As with other sectors, the residential energy demand is estimated using the MIX-CP scenario and applying the 2025-2030 (negative) growth rate forward to 2045.

Proportion of Residential Energy Demand that is Heat	2030	2045
Low	0.0%	0.0%
Central	0.0%	10.0%
High	0.0%	20.0%

Table 27: Proportion of residential energy demand that is heat

Approach for England and Wales

Industry, Power Generation, Road Transport and Heat

The approach for the industrial, power generation, road transport and heating sectors for England and Wales utilises Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2024 [185]. This contains three net zero compliant pathways for a decarbonised Great British energy system. In general, Electric Engagement is used for the low scenario, Holistic Transition forms the central scenario and Hydrogen Evolution is used to estimate the high scenario. However, the approach for the power generation sector is different, and the pathway mapping to our scenarios is inverted for Electric Engagement and Holistic Transition to provide consistent results.

The CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget [177] is used to estimate the proportion of hydrogen demand that occurs in England and Wales for each sector as the FES results estimate demand for Great Britain as a whole. This process is carried out for both 2030 and 2045 periods for the low, central and high scenarios.

Hydrogen Regional Demand Split	Units	2030	2045
Industry England & Wales % of GB	%	88%	89%
Electricity supply England & Wales % of GB	%	97%	94%
Surface transport England & Wales % of GB	%	94%	92%
Non-residential buildings England & Wales % of GB	%	87%	87%
Residential buildings England & Wales % of GB	%	93%	93%

Table 28: Hydrogen regional demand split between England and Wales

The only sector that does not map directly between the Sixth Carbon Budget and FES 2024 is surface transport which includes rail in the Sixth Carbon Budget. The regional split for surface transport is assumed to apply to road transport for this analysis.

To estimate the hydrogen demand reduction from the announcement of the closure of Grangemouth refinery, in September 2024, Gemserv interpreted data and forecasts in NESO’s Future Energy Scenario’s databook [194]. The total demand provided by Grangemouth in each forecast were extracted and multiplied by an assumption on what proportion of this demand was forecasted as being served by hydrogen. This proportion was assumed to follow the forecasted mix between fuels of oil, hydrogen and gas for total Industry and Commercial sector.

Scenario		2030			2045
Scenario		Input Grange-mouth Demand (Twh)	Hydrogen proportion of Industrial fuel mix %	Adjustment (Twh)		Input Grange-mouth Demand (Twh)	Hydrogen proportion of Industrial fuel mix %	Adjustment (Twh)
Low	Electric Engagement	0.19	12%	0.02		0.41	49%	0.20
Mid	Holistic Transition	0.18	33%	0.06		0.33	74%	0.25
High	Hydrogen Evolution	0.19	39%	0.08		0.35	82%	0.28

Table 33: Grangemouth refinery hydrogen demand adjustment.

Aviation

The UK has announced its intentions for a SAF mandate which increases the proportion of SAF in the aviation fuel mix, this policy also includes a PtL sub mandate [186]. For this obligation to be met, PtL derived fuels must meet 0.5% of aviation fuel consumption in 2030, rising to 3.5% by 2040. The PtL sub mandate increases by 0.4% points for the five years between 2036 and 2040 [187]. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that this trajectory continues and the PtL sub mandate increases to 5.5% by 2045.

Total aviation demand for the UK in the years 2030 and 2045 is based on the CCC’s Sixth Carbon Budget, utilising the Widespread Innovation and Tailwinds scenarios as these are the highest and lowest demand scenarios for aviation fuel. The central scenario is estimated as the midpoint between these. To estimate SAF demand in England and Wales, the regional split from the Balanced Pathway annual SAF demand is applied. England and Wales are estimated to be responsible for 94% and 93% of UK demand respectively for the years 2030 and 2045.

International Maritime

The UK generally does not report on energy consumption in the international maritime sector; however, T&E have developed analysis that estimates over 7 million tonnes of fossil marine fuel oils are used in the total maritime sector [184]. For the purposes of this analysis this is assumed to be exactly 7 million tonnes. The energy content of this fuel is estimated using EU Commission assumption of 40.5 MJ/kg for Marine Gas Oil (MGO) [188]. It is assumed that international maritime makes up 80% of fuel consumption based on the emissions estimates produced by T&E. Major port freight activity is used to estimate the proportion that occurs in England and Wales, estimated to be 81% of the UK total [189]. The proportional change in total energy demand for shipping is assumed to be the same for England and Wales and the assumptions made for the EU as a whole.

Once estimates of fuel demand in 2030 and 2045 are estimated, the proportion of this that is met with hydrogen derivates is applied to estimate derivative demand in the two time periods. The analysis assumes that the UK achieves less in terms of e-fuel deployment than the EU by 2030 due to its less ambitious policy in the sector. However, the UK Government has recognised a requirement to have at least 1% low-carbon shipping fuels by 2030. The analysis assumes that this is entirely met by e-fuels for the high scenario, half met by e-fuels for the central scenario and entirely met by other options such as biofuels for the low scenario. Due to the low technology readiness of ammonia as a shipping fuel, it is assumed that the 2030 demand is met with e-methanol. This is also in line with DNV data on fuel choices for ships on order, where 8% are methanol powered on gross tonnage basis [190]. For 2045 the assumptions for England and Wales follow that of the rest of the EU reflecting the international nature of shipping refuelling requirements.

Additional Tables and Graphs for Projected Demand

Figure 17: Mix of different sectors and derivatives in all three scenarios for the years 2030 and 2045

Note: Industrial demand figure is an aggregate of hydrogen, ammonia and methanol demand, with road transport figure showing 100% hydrogen demand. Heat notes domestic heating demand only.

Figure 18: Demand scenarios for the EU for all three scenarios

Figure 19: Hydrogen demand scenarios for 2030 for all the regions

Figure 20: Hydrogen demand scenarios for 2045 for all the regions

High Hydrogen Demand Scenario (TWh)	EU		Germany		Belgium		Netherlands		England and Wales
High Hydrogen Demand Scenario (TWh)	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045
Industry: Hydrogen	153.6	525.4	37.2	132.2	5.5	18.9	7.5	28.0	14.1	50.6
Industry: e-Ammonia	48.9	116.4	9.1	21.7	4.2	10.1	6.7	15.8	3.0	7.2
Industry: e-Methanol	4.6	11.0	2.9	6.8	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.9	0.0	0.0
Power: Hydrogen	0.0	441.2	0.0	86.4	0.0	13.3	0.0	23.2	3.6	73.1
Road: Hydrogen	0.8	129.0	0.3	21.0	0.1	6.5	0.1	3.9	1.3	35.7
Aviation: e-fuels	4.4	73.4	0.6	10.4	0.1	1.9	0.2	3.3	0.7	6.8
Maritime: Ammonia	3.5	209.2	0.2	13.9	0.6	30.8	1.0	59.5	0.3	20.8
Maritime: Methanol	20.8	18.5	1.2	1.2	3.5	2.7	5.8	5.2	0.3	1.8
Heat: Hydrogen	0.0	327.9	0.0	67.0	0.0	9.8	0.0	13.3	0.5	70.5
Total	236.6	1851.9	51.6	360.7	14.0	93.9	21.5	153.1	23.8	266.5

Central Hydrogen Demand Scenario (TWh)	EU		Germany		Belgium		Netherlands		England and Wales
Central Hydrogen Demand Scenario (TWh)	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045
Industry: Hydrogen	129.0	484.6	32.2	122.9	5.1	18.0	7.0	26.0	10.0	31.7
Industry: Ammonia	40.3	96.0	7.5	17.9	3.5	8.3	5.5	13.1	2.5	5.9
Industry: Methanol	4.3	10.3	2.7	6.4	0.0	0.0	0.4	0.9	0.0	0.0
Power: Hydrogen	0.0	294.1	0.0	57.6	0.0	8.8	0.0	15.5	0.9	29.7
Road: Hydrogen	0.6	62.1	0.2	10.1	0.1	3.1	0.0	1.8	1.2	18.9
Aviation: e-fuels	3.8	59.3	0.5	8.4	0.1	1.6	0.2	2.6	0.6	5.4
Maritime: Ammonia	1.7	109.6	0.1	7.3	0.3	16.1	0.5	31.1	0.1	10.9
Maritime: Methanol	10.4	9.2	0.6	0.6	1.8	1.4	2.9	2.6	0.1	0.9
Heat: Hydrogen	0.0	163.9	0.0	33.5	0.0	4.9	0.0	6.6	0.5	13.1
Total	190.2	1289.2	43.9	264.6	10.8	62.2	16.4	100.3	15.9	116.6

Low Hydrogen Demand Scenario (TWh)	EU		Germany		Belgium		Netherlands		England and Wales
Low Hydrogen Demand Scenario (TWh)	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045	2030	2045
Industry: Hydrogen	68.8	436.8	19.0	106.8	3.3	16.6	4.5	26.1	1.6	7.5
Industry: Ammonia	31.8	75.7	5.9	14.1	2.8	6.6	4.3	10.3	2.0	4.7
Industry: Methanol	4.0	9.6	2.5	5.9	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.8	0.0	0.0
Power: Hydrogen	0.0	147.1	0.0	28.8	0.0	4.4	0.0	7.7	0.0	9.4
Road: Hydrogen	0.4	4.7	0.1	0.7	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.1	1.0	2.1
Aviation: e-fuels	3.5	49.6	0.5	7.0	0.1	1.3	0.2	2.2	0.6	4.1
Maritime: Ammonia	0.0	9.9	0.0	0.7	0.0	1.5	0.0	1.5	0.0	1.0
Maritime: Methanol	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Heat: Hydrogen	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Total	108.5	733.4	28.0	164.0	6.1	30.6	9.4	48.7	5.2	28.7

Summary: Hydrogen Delivery Method

	H2 pipeline	Liquid H2	Ammonia	LOHC	Metal hydride
Method of usage	High volume gaseous hydrogen delivery.	High volume liquified hydrogen delivery, reconverted back to gaseous form upon delivery.	NH3 delivery, used directly (as a fuel; for chemicals production), or reconverted back to hydrogen.	Reconverted back to hydrogen upon delivery.	Reconverted back to hydrogen upon delivery.
Advantages	High efficiency. Low cost over long duration Continuous supply ability.	High volumetric energy density. Increased efficiency compared to gaseous hydrogen transportation. Flexibility in transport destination.	High volumetric energy density Established market. High efficiency over long distances. Ambient conditions.	Heat recovery during hydrogenation reaction. Ambient conditions.	Ambient conditions No leakage. Enhanced safety
Disadvantages	High investment cost. Low flexibility.	Very low temperatures required, leading to high costs. Reconversion to gaseous hydrogen is also energy intensive. High boil-off rate reduces efficiency.	High energy requirement of conversion and reconversion. Safety concerns around the handling of ammonia.	Purification and dehydrogenation are energy intensive. The LOHC must be returned in a dehydrogenated state to be reused, adding to transportation costs.	High temperatures required for dehydrogenation. Storage tanks are heavy due to a low mass-specific storage density.

Summary: Industrial Feedstock

	Ammonia	Methanol	Refining	Green Steel
Method of usage	H2 required for NH3 production. End uses involve fertiliser, plastic or synthetic fibre production.	H2 required for synthetic and conventional methanol production. The methanol is then used within chemicals production for polymers and hydrocarbons.	H2 is needed for hydrocracking and hydrotreating within oil refining, both crucial steps within the refinery process. End uses include fossil fuels and biofuels.	Hydrogen can be used to produce steel, acting as a reducing agent for iron ore, via the hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) method. End uses include current uses for steel.
Advantages	Mature market. Well-established technology. Currently transported in large volumes. Existing infrastructure available. Increases efficiency when NH3 is used for chemicals production compared to reconversion back to hydrogen.	Mature market. High demand for low-carbon methanol, and bio-methanol production alone will be unlikely to fulfil demand.	Large current market via fossil fuel production. Growing market of biofuels will require hydrogen for refining. Existing infrastructure available.	A method of reducing emission from the carbon-intensive steel industry. Mature market with high demand.
Disadvantages	No current ammonia production facilities in Scotland. The use of low-carbon hydrogen can increase costs.	Infrastructure development required. The use of low-carbon hydrogen can increase costs. Bio-based methanol likely to be more cost competitive than synthetic methanol. Scottish methanol production capabilities currently are lacking, although there are plans for a renewable methanol plant underway.	Fossil fuel refining demand expected to decline. The use of low-carbon hydrogen can increase costs.	New infrastructure required. Production route is higher cost than current steel production. No current steel production facilities in Scotland.

Summary: High-Temperature Heat

	Hydrogen	CCUS-enabled Gas	Bio-based Products
Method of usage	Existing heat equipment can be retrofit to use hydrogen, supplying direct and indirect heat up to 1000°C.	Current industrial heat equipment is fitted with carbon capture technology, and the carbon is stored to reduce emitted emissions.	Biofuels such as biomass or biomethane can be used for high temperature heat, usually up to temperatures of 200°C although higher temperatures could be used, depending on the biomass form.
Advantages	Current gas systems can be retrofit for hydrogen use. High energy density of hydrogen. Very high temperatures reached. Can be low or zero carbon depending on the hydrogen production route.	Current gas systems and feedstocks can be used. Scotland is geographically favoured for CCUS storage facilities.	Widely available, scalable and can be cost-competitive. Can be stored under ambient conditions. Scottish production abilities are promising.
Disadvantages	Retrofitting can be complicated due to the difference in combustion properties between H2 and natural gas. The cost of low-carbon hydrogen is much larger than current sources of high temperature heat fuels. Storage requirements of high pressures or low temperatures due to low volumetric density. Technology not fully mature.	Cost of CCUS integration can be high due to high investment costs. Cannot capture 100% of carbon emissions.	Feedstocks are limited, slowing further adoption.

Summary: Transport

	Hydrogen (fuel cell)	SAF	Methanol (maritime)	Ammonia (maritime)
Method of usage	Hydrogen can be used in a fuel cell vehicle, for example in road and rail transport. Heavy good vehicles have been shown to suit fuel cells economically, but lighter vehicles show some uncertainty.	SAFs are a type of liquid biofuel for aviation, produced via feedstocks of synthetically via a process that captures carbon from the air. They are equivalent to Jet A1 aviation fuel and are compatible with modern aircraft.	H2 required for synthetic and conventional methanol production. This methanol can then be used directly as a fuel for maritime application.	H2 required for NH3 production. This ammonia can then be used directly as a fuel for maritime application.
Advantages	Zero emissions Hydrogen refuelling is similar to current petrol refuelling. Faster refuelling times and longer ranges than battery counterparts. Fuel cell buses have been used in Scotland since 2015.	Easily integrated into current operations. Little alternatives for aviation decarbonisation currently, leading to growing market. Can reduce carbon emissions by over 80% compared to jet fuel.	Not many alternatives other than ammonia for longer distance maritime travel, leading to a growing market. Existing infrastructure can be retrofit to run on methanol.	Not many alternatives other than methanol for longer distance maritime travel, leading to a growing market. Lower cost of ammonia production, compared to synthetic methanol. Existing infrastructure can be retrofit to run on ammonia.
Disadvantages	High costs of operation due to the high cost of low-carbon hydrogen and expensive equipment required.	When produced from feedstock, can compete with other uses of the feedstock e.g. crops and water supplies. Not fully mature market. Higher cost than conventional jet fuels. Release carbon when burned.	High cost of synthetic methanol.	Relatively high transport and storage cost, due to cooling and compliance. Efficiency losses due to extensive energy transfer chain.

Summary: Power Generation

	Hydrogen	CCUS-enabled Gas	Biomass	Ammonia
Method of usage	Hydrogen can be used in turbines to meet electricity demand when electricity generation via renewable is not sufficient.	Natural gas turbines, coupled with CCUS, is a method of providing energy using existing infrastructure and fuel feedstock, while reducing carbon emissions.	Biomass can be used in turbines to meet electricity demand when electricity generation via renewable is not sufficient.	Ammonia can be used in turbines to meet electricity demand when electricity generation via renewable is not sufficient.
Advantages	Suitable for low-load factors. Hydrogen/gas blends possible. Retrofit of gas infrastructure available.	Retrofitting extends the life of the power plant, reducing capital costs. Suitable for high-load factors. Plans for a CCUS-coupled power plant in Scotland.	Widely supplied and highly mature technology. Suitable for high-load factors.	Ammonia production is a mature technology.
Disadvantages	High operating costs. Retrofit to 100% hydrogen requires more significant modifications due to differences in volumetric density. Limited experience with hydrogen power generation in Scotland.	CO₂ leakage from underground storage is a concern.	Can depend on feedstocks which could be required for other purposes, e.g. food and water. Relatively high cost of power generation.	Least mature power generation technology. Low efficiency and incompatibility with larger gas-turbines. High toxicity.

Stakeholder Engagement Approach

We interviewed stakeholders for one hour, following a semi-structured format. Interviews began by presenting the scope of the project and gathering high level thoughts on the storage technologies considered as well as identifying any potential gaps in scope. Questions were structured around the seven evaluation criteria in the scope of the project. The topics focused on in interviews are shown with the list of stakeholders below.

List of stakeholders

Enquest
Net Zero Technology Centre
Centrica
Hydrogen Europe
Air Products
DNV
Johnson Matthey
INEOS
Scottish Futures Trust

Broad topics

Which hydrogen derivates are likely to dominate the market?
Which industries/ sectors are likely to be the main offtakers for HDPs?
Which countries or regions would you consider main import/ demand hubs?
What are some of the policy gaps and bottlenecks for hydrogen projects?
What are the most likely end users for hydrogen products?

Key findings

Most stakeholders suggest ammonia to dominate the European market. Some stakeholders also mentioned SAF (in addition to ammonia), green methanol and green diesels.
There are several concerns about policy gaps and bottleneck too. Concerns include but are not limited to: concerns about subsidising export, absence of trade policies with other EU nations, lack of uniform approach to global carbon pricing, planning and permitting issues causing complexity.
Stakeholders also mentioned some security concerns associated with ammonia like toxicity and difficulty in detecting leaks.
Stakeholders expect Southern and Northern Europe to be the new major hubs for hydrogen demand.
The most likely end-use sectors for hydrogen are fertilisers, shipping and aviation.
Finally, the stakeholders also identified some Scotland specific challenges. Scotland will have to compete with both nearby regions like the EU and faraway regions like the middle east, north America and even Australia.

Table of units

Abbreviation	Unit	Quantity
MJ/kg	Megajoules per kilogram	Energy content per unit of mass
MJ/m³	Megajoules per cubic meter	Energy content per unit volume
MW	Megawatt	Power output
GW	Gigawatt	Power output
MWh	Megawatt hour	Energy
TWh	Terawatt hour	Energy
Wh/kg	Watt-hours per kg	Energy stored in one kg
Wh/l	Watt-hour per litre	Energy stored in one litre
gCO_2e	Grams of carbon dioxide equivalent	Amount of GHG equivalent to CO₂ emitted (in grams)
kgCO_2e	Kilograms of carbon dioxide equivalent	Amount of GHG equivalent to CO₂ emitted (in kilograms)
gCO2e/MJ	Grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule	Carbon intensity

References

[1]	Scottish Government, “Draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan,” 10 January 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.gov.scot/publications/draft-energy-strategy-transition-plan/.
[2]	Scottish Government, “Scottish hydrogen: assessment report,” 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-hydrogen-assessment-report/.
[3]	Scottish Government, “Hydrogen Action Plan,” 2022. [Online]. Available: https://www.gov.scot/publications/hydrogen-action-plan/.
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Acknowledgements

The delivery team extends thanks to Dr Jamie Speirs, Reader and Deputy Director in the Centre for Energy Policy at Strathclyde University, and Dr Edward Brightman, Lecturer at the University of Strathclyde, for their thorough review and helpful and constructive comments throughout the project. Special thanks go to Dr Nicola Dunn, Project Manager at ClimateXChange, for her continuous support and valuable guidance. We also express our appreciation to the Steering Group for their insightful input and feedback and to the industry stakeholders who contributed to our research, providing essential perspectives.

We would also like to recognise the dedication and hard work of the Gemserv team, including analysts and graphic designers Rachael Quintin-Baxendale, Sandile Mtetwa, Dhairya Nagpal, Isaac Guy, and Thomas Gayton, whose efforts were key in bringing this report to its final form.

How to cite this publication:

Csernik-Tihn, S., Mitchell, J., Wilson, J., Morton, H. (2025) Review of demand for hydrogen derivatives and products’, ClimateXChange. DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5798

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate as at the date of research completion, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

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+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

Distance of less than 2,000 kilometres. ↑
Distance of more than 2,000 kilometres. ↑
Industry includes chemicals and petrochemicals, construction, food, beverages and tobacco, iron and steel, machinery, textile and leather, non-metallic minerals, non-ferrous metals, oil and natural gas extraction, paper, pulp and printing, refineries, and transport equipment. ↑
These demand projections have been revised down to account for the closure of the Grangemouth refinery, announced in September 2024. The demand for the refinery as per NESO’s FES scenarios [194] was reversed, with assumptions according to data availability. The exact methodology used is discussed in Appendix E. ↑

Research completed September 2024

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6005

Executive summary

Aims

This evidence review addresses: (1) the climate change risks to mental health and wellbeing internationally and in Scotland, (2) the nature and prevalence of eco-distress in Scotland, (3) interventions for mental health and wellbeing in a climate change context from international literature, and (4) the evidence of co-benefits for mental health and wellbeing from climate action.

We undertook the review between February and July 2024 largely drawing on peer-reviewed studies and, where relevant, government strategy documents, risk assessments and evaluations of interventions.

The Scottish National Adaptation Plan (2024-2029) sets out actions to build Scotland’s resilience to climate change, it notes that: ‘Climate change means that Scotland will be wetter in winters, drier in summers, sea level rise will continue, and our weather will become more variable and unpredictable. Extremes will be more common.’ This review explores the possible effects of these changes on mental health and wellbeing in Scotland.

Findings

Climate-related risks and impacts to mental health

We found an increasing quantity of evidence that climate change can have substantial effects on mental health and wellbeing. The review found limited primary evidence of the impact of climate change on mental health and wellbeing for Scotland specifically, so these findings reflect the international evidence relevant to a Scottish context.

These effects are the result of key climate change-related hazards: acute weather events such as floods; sub-acute weather events such as longer periods of high temperature; or chronic climate changes, such as sea-level rise.
Each hazard can lead to negative mental health outcomes through direct pathways (injury, traumatisation, property loss) and indirect pathways (on livelihoods and social networks). There is also increasing evidence that awareness of climate change can affect mental health and wellbeing.
Internationally, the reported mental health and wellbeing effects of climate change can include heightened risk of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), suicide, depression, anxiety and overall poorer mental wellbeing. This varies in type and severity depending on the nature of the hazards.
Climate change amplifies existing mental health risks, affecting already vulnerable groups more. It presents particular challenges for coastal and island communities, and workers in agriculture and fisheries.

Definition and prevalence of ‘eco-distress’

Eco-distress (including eco-anxiety) is a psychosocial response to the awareness of climate change. While eco-distress currently lacks a consistent definition in published literature, common themes are (a) its future-oriented nature, (b) association with feelings of uncertainty and being overwhelmed, and (c) its rationality as a response to an existential threat.

Early evidence indicates that distress about climate change is widespread. As many as 70 percent of people in Scotland worry about climate change, with 25 percent reporting it affects their mental wellbeing.
Eco-distress appears to be more prevalent among young people, those with pre-existing mental health conditions and members of marginalised groups.

Evidence on effective intervention on mental health and wellbeing risks of climate change

The current evidence base for interventions in this field is limited, with few evaluated studies conducted in Scotland. The evidence reviewed in this study comes from a range of international studies and data sources.

Evaluated interventions predominantly focused on building psychological resilience, social connections, nature connection, building capacity of communities and encouraging climate action.

Evaluated interventions measured a wide range of outcomes including improved wellbeing, improved ability to cope and relief from psychological disorders.

Evidence of co-benefits and risks for mental health and wellbeing from climate action

Climate action can lead to improved mental health and wellbeing through addressing some of the social determinants of mental health such as financial security and quality housing. Key areas for action include energy efficiency measures, which can improve financial security and general physical health, active transport measures, which can improve mental health through increased physical activity and greater social participation, and nature-based climate solutions, which can improve mental health and wellbeing through increased physical activity, nature connection and a greater sense of community.

Lessons for policy in Scotland

Our review suggests that action to address the mental health and wellbeing impacts of climate change should focus on lessening the frequency and severity of hazards and managing the severity of their impacts. In general, responses should consider reducing exposure and vulnerability to hazards through adaptation and mitigation, increasing access to resources and support to recover from climate related hazards, and targeting support at the most vulnerable groups.

To reduce eco-distress, the findings support government taking visible action in relation to adaptation and mitigation that is clearly communicated to the public and that seeks to harness public concern about climate change to support climate action.

Finally, monitoring the prevalence and distribution of climate-related mental health and wellbeing effects and evaluating interventions and adaptations to address these, could help better understand the level of need and what best can be done to address this.

Glossary

Biodiversity	The variety of plant and animal life in a particular habitat. A high level of biodiversity means that there is a wide variety of plant and animal life.
Causal pathway	A sequence of events or processes through which an initial cause leads to a given outcome.
Causal relationship	A connection between two factors or events, where one leads to the occurrence or change of another.
Climate change related hazard	Climate-related physical event or trend that is more likely or severe due to the changing climate and may cause damage and loss. These include acute weather events, sub-acute weather events and chronic climate changes.
Climate Change	Long-term shifts in temperature, precipitation patterns, and other aspects of Earth’s climate, largely driven by human activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes.
Climate Crisis	The urgent threats posed by the irreversible consequences of climate change, whether environmental, social, political, cultural, or environmental in nature.
Ecological Crisis	The destabilisation of a species or population owing to changes to the environment in which it lives, which threatens its survival.
Ecosystem	A community of living organisms, interacting with one another and their environment to function as an interconnected system.
Eco-distress	The wide range of emotions and thoughts people may experience when they hear bad news about our planet and the environment (Please see section 4.5.1 for review findings about the definition of eco-distress).
Emotional/Psychological distress	The unpleasant and difficult emotions or feelings a person experiences when they are overwhelmed.
Evaluation	A systematic process to judge the merit, worth or significance of an intervention by combining evidence and judgement.
Evidence/literature review	A comprehensive and methodical summary of existing research and publications on a specific topic. In most cases it is analytical, and is used to identify trends, gaps, and key findings.
Mental Health	A part of our overall health, alongside physical health, experienced daily; good mental health means realizing our full potential, feeling safe, secure, and thriving in everyday life.
Mental illness	A health condition that affects emotions, thinking, and behaviour, substantially interfering with or limiting life, and if untreated, impacting daily living, work, and relationships (WHO, 2022a). May be referred to the now outdated term, mental ‘disorder’.
Mental wellbeing	Our internal positive view that we are coping well psychologically with the everyday stresses of life, working productively, feeling happy, and living our lives as we choose.
Meta-analysis	A type of evidence review that carries out statistical analysis about the body of evidence on a given topic, comparing different studies to identify inconsistencies and discrepancies.
Narrative Review	A type of evidence review that summarises different primary studies from which conclusions may be drawn in a systematic way and from a holistic point of view.
Physiological	Concerning the way in which a living organism or bodily part functions when it is healthy.
Qualitative	Research or analysis that focusses on understanding the subjective characteristics, meanings, and experiences of a given subject.
Quantitative	Research or analysis that focusses on measuring numerical data to identify patterns, relationships, or trends in a subject.
Systematic review	A type of evidence or literature review using a highly structured methodology, which looks to answer a specific research question, offering an analysis of the existing research and publications.
Trauma	A deeply distressing or disturbing experience that overwhelms an individual’s ability to cope, often having lasting emotional, psychological, or physical effects.
Unvalidated measures/ scales	Questionnaires that measure specific attitudes, behaviours, or psychological attributes that have not been through the process of validation
Validated measures/ scales	Questionnaires that measure specific attitudes, behaviours, or psychological attributes that have been rigorously tested using both qualitative and quantitative methods to demonstrate that they reliably measure the construct they intend to.
Vulnerability	The characteristics of individuals and groups that influence their potential to experience poorer mental health and wellbeing from exposure to a climate change related hazard.
Weather event	A natural phenomenon that occurs in the Earth’s atmosphere that has significant impacts on the environment and human activities. This can include storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, heatwaves, and droughts.

Introduction

Context for the study

Scotland’s climate is already changing. It has become warmer and wetter over the last two decades with changes projected to intensify in the coming years (UK Climate Risk, 2021). As the Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 states (Scottish Government, 2004): “Climate change means that Scotland will be wetter in winters, drier in summers, sea level rise will continue, and our weather will become more variable and unpredictable. Extremes will be more common”.

While there is a substantial body of scientific literature on the damaging effects of climate change on physical health (e.g., Costello et al. 2009; Rocque et al. 2021), the mental health and wellbeing effects of climate change remain comparatively under-explored. This is despite the growing recognition that climate change can have a significant impact on mental health and wellbeing (Vigo et al, 2016). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the World Health Organisation (WHO) have both highlighted the risks climate change presents for mental health and wellbeing and have called for greater understanding of these issues and the evidence around the impact of mitigation and adaptation strategies on mental health and wellbeing (Vigo et al, 2016).

Scotland continues to develop a range of responses to the impacts of climate change, built around their national adaptation plan, Climate Ready Scotland 2019-2024, and its successor. This plan already acknowledges the mental health and wellbeing impacts of a changing climate in terms of the risks to the general population and how to support vulnerable groups, as well as the readiness of services to meet the emerging needs. Scotland’s Climate Change Plan 2018 – 2032, which sets out Scotland’s approach to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions and achieving its Net Zero goal, also emphasises the importance of supporting population wellbeing and health throughout the necessary transformations. These strategies are supported by Scotland’s Just Transition plan, which sets out a vision of how the transition to net zero and climate resilience can be done in a fair way that reduces existing health inequalities.

Research aims

Our research has been conducted to support the Scottish Government in developing its adaptation and mitigation plan for climate change. We have done this by reviewing the latest available evidence on how climate change affects mental health and wellbeing, which groups are particularly vulnerable to these effects, and what steps can be taken to mitigate and protect against the worst impacts. Specifically, we answer four research questions:

What is the evidence of climate related risks and impacts to mental health and wellbeing in Scotland, and how these might differentially affect population groups?
How is ‘eco-distress’ (including ‘eco-anxiety’) currently defined, what is the current/potential prevalence in Scotland and how might this differentially affect population groups?
What is the evidence on effective prevention and early intervention, and on responding to mental health and wellbeing risks and impacts in a climate change context in Scotland?
What is the evidence of co-benefits and risks, or unintended consequences, for mental health and wellbeing from climate action (both mitigation and adaptation) relevant in a Scottish context?

Methodology

This rapid evidence review (RER) was conducted between February and July 2024. A rapid evidence review is a type of systematic review which takes place over a relatively short period of time. Rapid reviews are accelerated by focused research questions, scope restrictions, and a narrower search strategy (Smela, 2023; Klerings et al., 2023). Given the research had four broad research questions and a limited time frame, our rapid review systematically focused on the most relevant literature with a narrow focus; for instance, secondary effects of climate change, such as climate migration, were not considered as within scope for this review. This allowed us to explore the research questions in depth, though with the limitation that some possible secondary or tertiary effects of climate change on mental health were not within scope.

This review was conducted in five stages: (1) key informant interviews; (2) refinement and agreement of research design; (3) scoping, collating, and assessment of a longlist of relevant literature as per the research questions in Appendix A; (4) collating and assessing our shortlist; and (5) synthesising the results and reporting on them. Appendix A gives a full overview of the methodology which is represented in Figure 1 below.

Figure 1 Process of the Rapid Evidence Review

Research design

We began the review with a scoping stage which had two objectives: to agree the review procedures and to understand the scope of the research through key informant interviews. In total we undertook four interviews, with two policy staff and two academics. The purpose of these interviews was to understand the scope of literature, relevant national policies, contextual factors, and adaptation/mitigation interventions which were less likely to be identified in databases.

The review procedures were agreed during the scoping phase. These set out the longlisting, shortlisting and analysis processes for the study. For longlisting, this included data sources, search terms, procedures for entering items in extraction spreadsheet, inclusion/exclusion criteria and scoring of items added to the longlist. Whilst the methodology is presented in full in Appendix A, it is worth providing and overview of the principles of the review here to guide the reader. Our team of four researchers were assigned to a research question each. The researchers undertook their reviews in parallel with frequent team meetings. Each researcher used search terms which differed according to the research question. We used four different sources for the search terms: academic search engines, generic search engines for grey literature, Scottish and other government websites, and references of relevant documents including documents referred to by experts. Each relevant item found was input to a shared database, and each item was checked for quality assurance purposes by at least one other researcher. Reviewers also noted which research questions the item was relevant to, since many covered multiple questions.

In terms of the criteria for inclusion, as a Rapid Evidence Review, items were only included if they directly addressed both climate change and mental health/wellbeing. Items were excluded from the long list if they did not fulfil this criterion. Items were scored out of ten on the criteria shown in Table 1 below.

Table 1 Scoring criteria for the evidence review

Criteria	Scoring
Domain relevance	Score 1 if directly addresses both climate change and mental health/wellbeing. Exclude if criterion is not fulfilled
Recency	Score 1 if from 2015 or later
Geographical relevance	Score 2 if study in Scotland, score 1 if in the rest of the UK
Addresses target group	Score 1 if addresses vulnerable groups
Primary evidence	Score 1 if the item included high quality primary evidence
Scoping review	Score 2 if the item was a scoping review, literature review, or systematic review
Research gap	Score 1 if this item addresses emerging research gap
Direct relevance	Score 1 if directly addresses a research question

The longlisting process resulted in 267 items being scored and considered for further analysis. Most items were recent, with 87 percent of items written since 2015. 45 percent of the items were either a systematic or a scoping review. The majority of studies were not Scotland specific, with only 34 items (13 percent) concerning Scotland directly. Items were scored 0-10 according to these criteria and, in total, 55 items scored 7 or above.

Following the scoring process, each researcher filtered the longlist for studies that related to their specific research question and then selected the most relevant items for their purposes. This process led to a total shortlist of 72 items for Research Questions for 1,2 and 4, which can be seen in Appendix C. The unit of analysis for Research Question 3 differed from the rest of the study, being concerned with interventions (programmes, policies, and practices) that have been delivered to support mental health/wellbeing in the context of climate change. Literature from the longlist was extracted to identify relevant interventions, resulting in a list of 60 interventions relevant to Research Question 3, which can be viewed in Appendix D.

In the analysis phase, we conducted a shortlist analysis for each research question. We scanned each item in the shortlist manually, and iteratively developed a classification framework and coding constructs to ensure that each finding was directly derived from the literature and traceable. This helped us to develop themes for each domain to understanding relationship between themes for each research question. Our classification frame and set of constructs were added to and modified as new material came to light. Following synthesis and reporting, the report underwent a series of feedback and revision cycles, to address concerns from multiple stakeholder groups.

Describing the field

Defining mental health and wellbeing

In answering the research questions, we have adopted a broad definition of mental health and wellbeing, encompassing a range of concepts, including ‘mental health’, ‘mental wellbeing’, ‘mental disorder,’ and ‘mental illness.’

In its broadest sense, mental health refers to an aspect of overall health that includes our emotional, psychological, and social wellbeing. It describes how we think, feel, and act, how we cope with challenging situations, how we relate to others, and how we generally function in our lives. Good mental health and wellbeing is understood to be more than simply the absence of mental illness. Good mental health is a positive psychological state of functioning well in the world (WHO, 2022b).

We drew on the current Scottish Government definitions as set out in the 2023 Mental Health and Wellbeing Strategy (Scottish Government, 2023). These suggest:

Mental health is a part of our overall health, alongside our physical health. It is what we experience every day, and like physical health, it ebbs and flows daily. Good mental health means we can realise our full potential and feel safe and secure. It also means we thrive in everyday life.
Mental wellbeing is our internal positive view that we are coping well psychologically with the everyday stresses of life and can work productively and fruitfully. We feel happy and live our lives the way we choose.
Mental illness is a health condition that affects emotions, thinking and behaviour. Mental illness substantially interferes with or limits our life. If left untreated, mental illnesses can impact daily living, including our ability to work, care for family, and relate and interact with others (WHO, 2022a).^[1]

The impact of climate change on mental health and wellbeing can be seen in several ways: the overall population may have poorer mental health and wellbeing, those with existing mental health conditions may deteriorate, or more people may develop mental illnesses. We have found variation in the literature we reviewed, both in terms of the focus of different studies and the terminology they used to describe mental health. Some studies focused on the impact of climate change on clinical diagnosis such as Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) or PTSD. Others described effects on this wider conception of mental health and wellbeing that encompasses general life satisfaction, and social and emotional functioning. Where we draw on evidence from studies focused on a specific or narrow aspect of mental health, we state this in the text.

Wider determinants of mental health

An individual’s mental health is shaped by a wide variety of contextual factors. These are often referred to as the ‘social’ or ‘wider determinants’ of mental health (Allen et al, 2014). These are defined as:

“…the set of structural conditions to which people are exposed across the life course, from conception to death, which affect individual mental health outcomes, and contribute to mental health disparities within and between populations.” (Kirkbride at al., 2024)

These determinants operate at individual, social, and societal levels. This includes an individual’s social relationships and networks, their living conditions, income, education, employment status, as well as wider factors such their exposure to inequality or discrimination. These wider determinants can act as risks or protective factors in relation to mental health. For example, mental health is protected by secure housing, stable employment, and supportive social networks. Mental health is put at risk by poverty, unemployment, social isolation, and exposure to trauma. We acknowledge the wider determinants of mental health to help explain why some groups within society are at greater risk of poor mental health than others (WHO and Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, 2014.). This report explores these determinants in the context of climate change.

Climate change related hazards

When describing the mental health impacts of climate change, the scientific literature tends to distinguish between different types of climate change related hazards. These are the impacts of climate change that people are most likely to encounter and therefore are most likely to have an impact on their mental health. Major reviews in this field (Charlson et al, 2021; Hayes et al. 2018; Manning and Clayton, 2018; Cianconi et al, 2020) demonstrate a high level of consensus on the classification of these phenomena, dividing them into three categories based on their duration in time:

‘Acute’ (or ‘extreme’) weather events such as floods, wildfires, storms, and hurricanes (lasting days or weeks)
Sub-acute weather events, including droughts and long-periods of high temperatures (lasting months or years)
‘Chronic’ climate changes such as loss of habitat and biodiversity, sea-level rises, coastal erosion, and permanently higher temperatures (lasting centuries)

Major climate related hazards in Scotland

Of these hazards, the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) highlights flooding, overheating, and coastal change as the most severe climate risks for Scotland. Increased winter rainfall and heavy rainfall events make flooding a major threat, impacting communities and infrastructure, with vulnerable populations at greater risk (UK Climate Risk, 2021). High temperatures pose risks to health and wellbeing due to overheating which are known to disproportionately affect vulnerable groups such as care home residents (UK Climate Risk, 2021). Loss of and change to coastal areas due to rising sea levels threatens 19 percent of Scotland’s coastline within 30 years, posing significant risk to coastal communities and essential infrastructure.

Defining causal pathways between climate change on mental health and wellbeing

Several evidence reviews in this field highlight that the relationship between climate hazards and mental health and wellbeing outcomes is complex and multi-faceted. These reviews found many pathways through which each hazard disrupts the conditions that support good mental health and wellbeing (Lawrance et al, 2020). These effects occur by disrupting the conditions for positive physical health, for positive social relationships, and for economic and political security.

Most major reviews adopt and build on the conceptual framework for these pathways. This framework, first proposed by Berry, Bowen, and Kjellstrom (2008) and Fritze et al. (2008) aimed to differentiate the causal relationships into ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ effects of climate events through disruption to the determinants of mental health. Subsequent reviews argue for the inclusion of a third pathway that is understood to result from psycho-social and emotional response to climate change awareness rather than experience of events. This third pathway has latterly been described as ‘overarching’ (Hayes et al. 2018) and is commonly described as ‘climate’ or ‘eco-distress’.

More recently, some authors have also argued for the direct/indirect frame to be understood as a continuum, ranging from more direct to more indirect (Lawrance et al. 2022). An explanatory figure for the direct-indirect continuum is provided in Appendix B. For this report, the causal relationship between climate change and mental health includes:

Direct causal pathways:

via traumatic events (such as risk to life, injury, or witnessing injury)
loss of or damage to property
via physical health such as the effects of high temperature

Indirect causal pathways:

via effects on food supply and diet, increased risk or spread of infectious diseases
via community wellbeing (such as effects on livelihoods, economic and social functioning, service disruption, poverty, isolation, bereavement, and displacement)

Overarching psycho-social response to climate change awareness (climate or eco- distress):

A type of indirect pathway related to how people respond psychologically and emotionally to the fact of climate change and news/information about its effects

While conceptualising causal pathways in this way is helpful to demonstrate the full range of possible mental health effects of climate change. In real world scenarios, single events may have both direct and indirect effects on mental health as well as increased eco-distress over time. For example, a flood can cause injury and trauma immediately and lead to longer term economic disruption to local businesses, and increased anxiety about climate change more generally for those caught up in the events.

Given the wide range of factors that influence mental health, and the range of pathways through which climate change interacts with these, many authors stress that the effects of climate change are not distributed equally across populations. Certain groups are especially vulnerable to its mental health impacts. They describe climate change variously as an ‘exacerbator’ (Berry et al, 2010) ‘amplifier’, or ‘multiplier’ (Lawrance et al. 2022) of risk. This means that climate change related hazards interact with existing vulnerabilities to poor mental health such as deprivation, marginalisation, poor health, or existing mental health problems to create greater negative effects for some groups.

Report structure

The report is structured in line with the research questions. Chapter 4 addresses both Research Questions 1 and 2 as these both focus on the impact on climate change on mental health, its prevalence in Scotland, and an analysis of vulnerable populations. Chapter 5 addresses Research Question 3 with an analysis of available evidence on effective measures to mitigate negative mental health outcomes. Chapter 6 addresses Research Question 4 about the co-benefits and unintended mental health effects of climate action more generally. Chapter 7 contains the conclusion of our review including a section on policy implications.

Limitations of the study

We drew on aspects of systematic review methodology in the identification and appraisal of relevant evidence. However, given the breadth of the research questions, the quantity of potentially relevant evidence, and the time available to conduct the review, this paper is not a systematic review. We therefore acknowledge the risk that some key evidence on these topics may have been missed by our search and appraisal procedures.

This report is based predominantly on UK and international literature (rather than being specific to Scotland) that draws its findings from the study of climate change and mental health in different countries and geographies around the world. Inevitably, some of these studies are more relevant than others to a Scottish context. Through our appraisal process we have sought to identify evidence from settings that share similar features to Scotland, in terms of climate, populations demographics, and social and political context, for example particularly drawing on studies based in the UK and Northern Europe. However, it remains a possibility that research evidence quoted in the report from other regions is not fully applicable to Scotland. The literature reviewed is provided in Chapter 12: References.

The researchers note that in the international literature reviewed, the terms such as mental health, mental illness, wellbeing are defined in different ways, with occasional conflation of clinical mental illness and negative impacts on wellbeing. Where possible we refer to the definitions set out in the Scottish Government Mental Health Wellbeing strategy but urge the reader to proceed on the basis of a broader understanding of the range of concepts as set out in 3.4.1.

Climate related risks and impacts to mental health and wellbeing

Summary of findings from Chapter 4

This chapter addresses two research questions:

What is the evidence of climate related risks and impacts to mental health and wellbeing in Scotland, and how these might differentially affect population groups?
How is ‘eco-distress’ (including ‘eco-anxiety’) currently defined, what is the current/potential prevalence in Scotland and how might this differentially affect population groups?

Evidence of climate-related risks and impacts to mental health:

We found strong evidence that links climate change to increased mental health risks. Scotland specific studies focus on the impacts of flooding.

Scotland’s main climate change-related hazards are flooding, higher temperatures, and coastal changes due to sea-level rises.
Each of these hazards can lead to various negative mental health outcomes. These can happen through direct pathways (injury, traumatisation, property loss) and indirect pathways (impacts diet, livelihoods, social networks, or displacement).
The negative effects on mental health have a wide range in their severity depending on the nature of the hazard and the degree of disruption caused.
Vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected by these effects. These include older people, children, women, ethnic minorities, individuals with low-income, those with pre-existing conditions, coastal and island communities, and workers in agriculture and fisheries.

Definition and prevalence of ‘eco-distress’:

Eco-distress (including eco-anxiety) is a psychosocial response to the awareness of climate change.

There is currently no consistent definition for eco-distress in published literature. We found definitions ranged from any distressing psychological response to climate change, to a narrow focus on specific severe responses.
Common themes in eco-distress are (a) its future-oriented nature, (b) association with feelings of uncertainty and being overwhelmed, and (c) its rationality as a response to an existential threat. Eco-distress can lead to positive, pro-environmental behaviours.
Early evidence indicates that distress about climate change is widespread. As many as 70 percent of Scottish people worry about climate change, with 25 percent reporting it affects their mental wellbeing.
Eco-distress is associated with certain sub-groups, including youth, people with pre-existing mental health conditions, and being a member of a marginalised group.

Introduction

In this chapter we present the available evidence on links between climate change and mental health. We divide this into two parts: Section 4.2 and 4.3 address Research Question 1 and describe the current evidence about ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’ impacts of climate change related hazards on mental health. Section 4.5 addresses Research Question 2 and focuses on the nature of psycho-social responses to an awareness of climate change, what is often described as ‘climate anxiety, ‘climate distress’, or ‘eco-emotions.’ Here we outline the current state of research in relation to these emerging concepts, their definitions, their measurement, and research gaps.

Methodology

We undertook content analysis of the material related to Research Questions 1 and 2 through the ‘inspection’ method. We read the material manually to create a classification framework that logged each item by name, source, and summary of the content. Each item was then analysed across three dimensions: themes, constructs, and codes. We highlighted evidence particularly relevant to Scotland, research examining Scottish or UK populations; relating to common climate change hazards in Scotland (e.g., flooding); or from similar climatic, geographical, or social/governmental contexts.

Our searches in relation to Research Questions 1 and 2 revealed a high number of primary research outputs accompanied by a growing amount of literature and evidence reviews that summarise the overall state of the field. We focused our analysis on the most recent and most highly cited literature and evidence reviews, supplementing review findings with reference to original studies or additional evidence where useful.

The reader should note that the evidence identified for this section is drawn from international and UK literature and therefore caution should be taken in applying directly the lessons from other geographies to a Scottish context. To aid with this we have marked throughout the section where evidence in international or Scottish/ UK based.

Direct effects of climate change on mental health

We found strong evidence^[2] of the direct effects of climate change impacts on mental health outcomes drawn from research conducted around the world. These occurred through the increased likelihood of experiencing traumatic events as the result of extreme weather events, or through the direct physiological effects of increased higher temperatures.

As we described in Section 3.4.5, some climate events, including flooding, have both direct and indirect mental health effects (i.e., can cause both injury and loss of property in the short run and impact livelihoods or social networks in the longer-term). The types of events examined in this section are those identified in the literature as causing, as a first step, direct mental health impacts, though in most cases they will have both direct and indirect effects.

Flooding

Flooding is the most common extreme weather event globally, accounting for 47 percent of all weather-related disasters (CRED, 2015; CRED, 2019).

Scottish context

A recent comprehensive review of climate risks in Scotland states that flooding is among the most severe risks (UK Climate Risk, 2021). Winters have been 19 percent wetter in the last decade (2010-2019) compared to 1961-1990 with a rising proportion of rainfall coming from heavy rainfall events (UK Climate Risk, 2021). Flooding poses a risk to people, communities, buildings, infrastructure, and businesses. In the coming decades, flooding in Scotland is likely to be more frequent and more severe (UK Climate Risk, 2021). It is also likely to affect food availability, affect agriculture and food production, cause damage to cultural heritage assets, and impact ecosystems. A study on the public awareness of climate risks in Scotland showed that flooding was also seen as one of the most urgent weather-related problems. In a nationally representative survey of the Scottish public, 51 percent of respondents indicated that flooding is already a serious problem (Millar et al, 2022). We know from the CCRA3 (UK Climate Risk, 2021) that those living in the Glasgow City Region, coastal areas, and rural communities are most likely to be at flood disadvantage. This is the result of a combination of flood risk due to where people live and wider social vulnerabilities.

We found that flooding in the UK has been extensively studied over the last 10 years providing high quality, relevant evidence for a Scottish context. A narrative review and meta-analysis of the effects of flooding in the UK found that flood victims show higher levels of common mental health problems compared with the wider public, displaying higher rates of PTSD and anxiety disorders (Cruz et al, 2020). The meta-analysis found flood victims were up to four times as likely to report long-term mental health problems, including PTSD, and anxiety, compared to the general population. We do not know what the mental health status of individuals was prior to the flooding event or that of other individuals living in a similar area but not exposed to flooding.

Flood victims also reported relationship difficulties, and sadness around ‘a loss of a sense of place and security’ after loss of or damage to possessions (Cruz et al, 2020). These issues often persisted in the long-term (sometimes years after the floods) with flood victims more likely to report anxiety during heavy rain, which was associated with heightened stress, poor sleep, panic attacks, mood swings and increased use of alcohol or prescription drugs. Physical health problems linked with the flooding (such as waterborne diseases) were also associated with psychological distress (Cruz et al, 2020).

A study in Scotland on the floods in Ballater and Garioch in 2016-17 (Margaret, Philip, and Dowds, 2020) supported these findings. This study used a validated measure of wellbeing (Short Warwick and Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale) at two time points to track the wellbeing of those affected by flooding in combination with interviews. This found that those whose homes had been flooded had significantly lower mental wellbeing immediately after the floods than those from the same areas whose homes had not been. While both groups’ wellbeing improved as time went on, those whose homes had been flooded continued to lag at the 18-month follow-up. In this follow-up, the findings showed that that the communities of Ballater and Garioch were still grappling with emotional repercussions following the floods. Residents, even those whose homes were not flooded, continue to experience high levels of anxiety, particularly triggered by rain and flood warnings. Interviewees reported sleep disturbances, increased stress, and worsened health conditions. The stress of dealing with insurance claims, home renovations, and financial burdens compounded these impacts. These findings highlight the long-lasting negative impact of flooding on mental wellbeing.

Vulnerable groups – UK context

We found that several factors worsened the mental health impacts of flooding. These included: the flood water depth; lack of flood warning; repeat flooding; evacuation and/or temporary rehousing, and disruption to domestic utilities. Each of these factors led to higher rates of anxiety, depression, and PTSD. As well as this, issues with home or property insurance were associated with greater stress levels and difficulties recovering from the flood, either from being uninsured or facing difficulties claiming insurance. The review also noted that when little support arrived from relevant authorities, this also led to poor mental health outcomes (Cruz et al, 2020).

In keeping with the factors above, the meta-study found that the severity and duration of the mental health impact of flooding varied between different groups of people (Cruz et al, 2020). This depended on their susceptibility to harm, their (in)ability to prepare, respond, and recover, and their access to resources, services, and support. Women’s mental health was affected more severely than that of men, people under 65 years old experienced greater psychological distress than those over 65, and those from higher income groups reported lower levels of poor mental health in the long run than those from lower income groups. The CCRA3 also highlights the particular risk to those with mobility difficulties, and black and Asian people (UK Climate Risk, 2021).

Temperature – International

In their recent review of evidence quality and gaps, Charlson et al (2021), found that temperature was the most studied climate-change related hazard in international literature, identifying 27 original studies of the relationship between temperature and mental health. These studies focused on hazards of extreme heat (heatwaves) and longer-term increases in ambient temperature. Both higher ambient temperatures and extreme temperatures have been found to impact mental health and wellbeing negatively, showing associations to poorer mental health in the general population (Charlson et al. 2021). These effects occur through physiological impacts, such as overheating and dehydration, leading to cognitive changes, heat stress, sleep disruption, and worsening cardiovascular disease and pre-existing conditions (Berry et al, 2010). This international study also found that rising temperatures can be associated with a general increase in aggression. A recent analysis found “increasing evidence that is suggestive of a relationship between temperature and violence at the population level” which sees increases in the frequency of both interpersonal violence and intergroup conflict as temperature exceeds local seasonal norms (Mahendran et al, 2021). Increased temperatures may also reduce people’s capacity to undertake manual tasks and increase the risk of accidents. This can result in injury or loss of income which both have negative mental health impacts (Berry et al, 2010).

International evidence also suggests that increased ambient temperatures are associated with increased death by suicide. Several recent meta-analyses concluded that each 1°C increase in temperature (above local norms) was significantly associated with a between 1-1.7 percent increase in the incidence of suicide with those living in tropical or temperate zones more vulnerable (Gao et al, 2019; Thompson, et al, 2023)_.However, caution in interpreting these findings is urged due to the finding that this link was not always linear, varied between countries, and was influenced by factors such as humidity and sunlight (Ngu et al. 2021). Heatwaves have been found to be associated with increased hospital admissions for mental illness. In Thompson et al.’s (2023) meta-analysis, heatwaves (defined as temperatures of at least 35°C lasting for at least 3 days) were correlated with a 9·7 percent increase in hospital attendance for mental illness when compared with periods of non-heatwave in three studies in Australia and Vietnam.

Scottish context

Historically, overheating and rising temperatures have not been perceived to be major threats in Scotland. Ready.scot, informed by the Met Office, defines a heatwave in Scotland as a period of at least three consecutive days in a location with maximum temperatures above 25°C. However, a recent paper on heat-health management in Scotland, argued that while Scotland has historically had low average temperatures, climate change driven increases in temperature still present challenges for the physical and mental health of the nation. The paper noted that Scotland’s low average temperature present “socio-cultural barriers to intervention” including a “perceived lack of heat-health risks and policy priority, as well as unsuitable building stock” (Wan et al, 2023). Indeed, some studies on effects of temperature have used a relative measure of extreme heat that considers the regional temperature norms. For example, heatwaves can be defined as a minimum daily temperature in that exceeds the 99th percentile for the region (Chambers, 2020) meaning that in colder countries a lower temperature may still be considered extreme.

As the CCRA3 demonstrates, along with flooding, rising temperatures are one of the most severe climate change risks for Scotland now and in the future. The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1997, with annual temperatures expected to rise by 1.1°C by the 2050s, leading to an increase in average ambient temperature and greater frequency and severity of extreme heatwave events nationally (UK Climate Risk, 2021)..Despite this trend, there is limited evidence of the effects of increased ambient temperature and heatwaves on population mental health in Scotland or in the wider UK. However, as part of the above international study on suicide and temperature, Kim et al (2019) investigated UK records between 1990-2011. They found a near linear increase in suicide rates associated with increases in ambient temperature with the highest risk of suicide recorded when temperature reach the 99^th percentile of national norms (Kim et al, 2019). In relation to the effects of heatwaves, a 2018 review of the effects of extreme weather on mental health in the UK identified only one paper specifically addressing heatwaves and was therefore unable to draw comprehensive conclusions.

Vulnerability – UK and international

High temperatures are likely to have an effect on health and social outcomes (UK Climate Risk, 2021). The evidence reviewed for this paper found that the groups most affected by heat are those with ‘impaired thermoregulation’ and those unable to access cooler spaces, such as people in care homes, hospitals, and prisons. This group includes the elderly and those with substance abuse problems, and particularly those with pre-existing mental health problems on certain prescription medications (including hypnotics, anxiolytics, and antipsychotics) that can affect the bodies ability to regulate temperature (Hayes et al, 2018; Liu et al, 2021). Higher temperatures have been found to be associated with worsened mental health for people with existing mental health issues. International studies have shown that, during heatwaves, hospital admissions increase for mental health conditions such as schizophrenia, dementia, mania, so-called ‘neurotic disorders’, and substance misuse (Hayes et al, 2018). Internationally, heatwaves have also been shown to significantly increase mortality risk for individuals with mental illnesses which again appears to be partly due to medications impairing the body’s temperature regulation (Lawrance et al. 2022).

Relevant reviews have concluded that there is limited evidence of the impact on increased temperature and heatwaves on more common mental health issues such as depression and anxiety and have encouraged further investigation (Thompson et al, 2018). The other groups most affected include people of colour, members of deprived and marginalised communities, those living in insecure housing, people experiencing homelessness, and prisoners owing to reduced access to air conditioning, tree cover or green spaces (Lawrance et al, 2022; UK Climate Risk, 2021).

Wildfire – International

In its three-year strategy, the Scottish Wildfire Forum stated that it anticipates a growth in the number and intensity of wildfires year by year (Scottish Wildfire Forum, 2021). While there was no research evidence of the wildfires’ effects in Scotland we found international evidence that wildfires can negatively affect mental health through several pathways. They negatively impact physical health, particularly through prolonged smoke inhalation, which can lead to respiratory problems. This can affect mental health and wellbeing as poorer physical health is known to be strongly associated with poorer mental health (Ohrnberger et al, 2017). Wildfires also disrupt social and community functioning through displacement and evacuation. Wildfires can directly affect psychological health by causing traumatic events, feelings of fear, stress, and anxiety, all of which contribute to severe, long-term negative impacts on mental health (Charlson et al. 2021). For example, a six-month follow-up after a particularly severe wildfire in Canada found those affected had an almost eight times higher rate of Generalised Anxiety Disorder (GAD) than the general population (Agyapong, et al. 2018). These effects are compounded by increased periods of time spent indoors due to smoke, and general disruptions to lives and livelihoods, with a negative impact on earnings associated with greater psychological distress (Agyapong et al, 2018). Caution should be taken in applying these findings directly to Scotland given the magnitude of wildfire events in Canada are much greater than in Scotland.

Indirect effects on mental health

We found that over the past two decades there have been substantial developments in the conceptualisation and evidence of the indirect impacts of climate change on mental health internationally. However, these pathways are still less well understood than the direct effects. This is due to the increasing complexity of the causal pathways in this category. Indirect pathways involve a larger number of steps between cause and effect. Some evidence reviews, when addressing this topic, describe ‘potential’ or ‘likely’ mental health effects of climate change, drawing on illustrative research evidence to build a picture of how these effects operate. For example, Lawrance et al (2022) propose a model whereby climate change is understood to have a destabilising effect on political, governmental, and cultural domains of society. This destabilisation causes ‘cascading effects,’ disrupting living and working conditions, community networks, physical health, and inequalities (Lawrance et al, 2022).

Drought – International

We found no direct evidence of the impacts of drought on mental health in Scotland or the UK. However, drought has been extensively studied in Australia. The key finding from these studies is that drought affects mental health through a range of pathways. By affecting both food and water supplies, it is associated with higher levels of psychological distress in rural communities, with urban areas less affected. Drought is particularly associated with negative mental health effects on farmers due to their reliance on the land for their livelihoods. The economic consequences of land degradation, crop loss, and reduced yield result in high levels of stress and potential increase in risk of suicide among farmers (Hayes et al. 2018). Factors exacerbating psychological distress associated with drought include unemployment and prior exposure to adverse life events. Conversely, negative mental health effects are reduced by factors such as financial security, access to social support (Charlson et al. 2021).

Scottish context

While we cannot directly transfer the findings from an Australian context to a Scottish one given the different geographies, the likely economic and social disruption of increased droughts in Scotland can be predicted to impact the mental health and wellbeing of communities dependant on the land for work. A recent NatureScot analysis projects extreme droughts will become more frequent and prolonged across Scotland in the coming years, increasing from an average of one event every 20 years (in the period 1981-2001) to one every three years by 2021-2040, with typical events each lasting 2-3 months longer (Baird et al, 2021). The authors anticipate the greatest increases in the eastern regions, including the Borders, Grampian, Caithness, Orkney, and Shetland. These areas are home to substantial economic activity vulnerable to drought, including the whisky industry in Speyside, extensive areas of agriculture and forestry and a rural population dependant on wells as water sources (Kirkpatrick et al, 2021).

Biodiversity – International

Climate change is an ongoing driver of biodiversity loss, which is expected to negatively affect mental health (Lawrance et al. 2022). This impacts population groups that depend on biodiversity for their livelihood, such as agricultural workers that rely on the pollination of insects (Vasiliev and Greenwood, 2021) and those who work in fisheries. For example, the North Sea has experienced significant decreases in the maximum sustainable yield of fish populations over the past 25 years, linked to warmer seas and reduced food availability (Pinnegar et al, 2020). Reductions in and uncertainty around yields from agriculture and fisheries can affect those working in these industries both by reducing income, increasing the likelihood of unemployment, and raising stress and anxiety.

More broadly, nature connectedness and time spent in biodiverse environments are both strongly correlated with positive mental health (Lawrance et al. 2022). A key evidence review on the relationship between human health and wellbeing and nature and biodiversity found a number of psychological benefits of access to biodiverse settings, including reduced depression and anxiety, increased vitality, pro-social behaviour and life satisfaction (Sandifer et al, 2015). Therefore, through its negative effect on biodiversity, climate change is likely to have detrimental effect on those for whom contact with nature plays a protective role in their mental health (Sandifer et al, 2015). Conversely, where climate action increases or restores biodiversity there will be a likely positive effect on mental health and wellbeing (discussed in Chapter 6). Again, access to ‘high quality’ green space is not equally distributed, with especially deprived urban communities having less access.

Awareness of biodiversity loss both locally but also further afield, along with other visible climate change impacts such as floods, may also contribute to an experience of eco-distress by making climate change more salient to people. This pathway between the impacts of climate change and mental health and wellbeing is further explored in Section 4.5 of this chapter.

Air quality – International

Some international reviews on the impacts of climate change on mental health identify air quality as a pathway for climate change to affect mental health. Poor air quality has been found to be associated with increased instances of a range of mental health conditions such as anxiety, psychosis, and dementia as well as increased use of mental health services and rates of suicide. (Sandifier et al, 2015; Lawrance et al., 2022). This is thought to result both from the association between exposure to air pollution and wider socio-economic vulnerabilities and the effect pollutants have on brain function: as Lawrence et al. (2022) states “Air pollution, specifically particulate matter (PM), and nitrogen oxides (NOx), increase the risk of mental health problems, potentially via mechanisms of inflammation and neuronal injury”. While the main cause of poor air-quality is the burning of fossil fuels, which is a cause of climate change rather than a consequence of it, increasing global temperatures and wildfires (both climate-change related hazards) can degrade air quality and increase the presence of pollutants and particulate matter in the air (Sandifer et al, 2015, Cianconi et al, 2020).

Scottish context

The CCRA3 ranks poor air quality as a medium risk for health and wellbeing in Scotland. While it states that Scotland faces challenges with poor air quality, despite reductions in emissions and improved pollution control, it acknowledges that the contribution of climate change to these issues is hard to establish and therefore needs further investigation.

Displacement and migration – International

Extended periods of extreme heat, long-term droughts, excessive rain, and loss of coastal land are expected to lead to displacement of populations from their homes and land. Climate change can cause both temporary displacement through evacuations and permanent displacement through physical changes to the environment, such as soil no longer being viable for crops, or loss of coastal land. Estimates of the scale of displacement because of climate change vary widely, with the figure of 200 million people globally being displaced by 2050 most frequently cited (Hayes et al. 2018).

Both temporary and permanent displacement because of extreme weather has been shown to be associated with mental illnesses and poor mental health, including instances of PTSD, depression, anxiety, and stress. (Tunstall et al, 2006; Hayes et al. 2018; Berry et al., 2010).

Scottish context

In Scotland, the most likely cause of temporary displacement is flooding, however the most likely cause of permanent displacement is changes to and loss of coastal land. The CCRA3 states that one of the most severe risks is sea levels rising and the associated coastal change. Erosion, landslips, and permanent inundation threaten the long-term viability of coastal communities. It predicts that within the next 30 years, 19 percent of Scotland’s coastline is at risk of erosion, which has projected knock-on effects for transport, energy, water, and housing infrastructure, and a knock-on effect on livelihoods and community wellbeing (UK Climate Risk, 2021). Scotland is also renowned worldwide for its coast and coastal wildlife which contribute to national identity as well as tourism. Coastal change is likely to have a considerable impact on this, threatening the preservation of Scotland’s cultural heritage. Naturally, coastal communities are most at risk with Falkirk, West Dunbartonshire, Highland and Dumfries and Galloway expected to be most vulnerable to coastal flooding. Moreover, the study on public awareness showed that the increase in concern surrounding climate change was higher than average among respondents in the Highlands and Islands (62 percent). This could be attributed to vulnerability of island communities from extreme weather and coastal erosion (ClimateXChange, 2021).

Vulnerable groups

Climate change related hazards amplify existing risks for individuals and groups, and further compound existing social injustices and inequalities (McMichael, 2017). Watts et al. state that “by undermining the social and environmental determinants that underpin good health, climate change exacerbates social, economic, and demographic inequalities” (Watts et al, 2018). This means that some population groups are more vulnerable to the mental health effects of climate change than others. Some are more vulnerable in general to poor mental health and therefore to all climate related risks. Such groups include older people, children, women, ethnic minorities, people from deprived and marginalised communities, and people with pre-existing health conditions (Hayes et al, 2018). There are also groups that are vulnerable owing to the specific hazards they are exposed to, such as people living in areas subject to flooding; people who work in agriculture and fisheries; and outdoor labourers. In a Scottish context this also includes coastal and island communities who are more likely to face disruption to services and infrastructure due to extreme weather events and face a higher risk of displacement in the long run.

These risks are mediated by the ability of individuals and groups to protect against and recover from the harmful effects of climate change. This is largely determined by access to services, resources, and social support. Different groups have varying access to these resources, further compounding risks for the already vulnerable (Berry et al, 2010; Lawrance et al, 2022; Charlson et al, 2021).

The CCRA3 identifies flooding, high temperatures, air quality and coastal change as the four key climate hazards facing Scotland now and, in the future, (UK Climate Risk, 2021). A study on population groups vulnerable to climate change likewise identifies low-income groups; people with poor health; and people living areas with high levels of social and private rented housing, and people from Black ethnic groups as those most at risk (Sayers et al, 2023). While these reports focused on overall risks, rather than just risk to mental health and wellbeing, their findings align closely with the wider literature on mental health vulnerabilities.

Psycho-social responses to climate change

In addition to the causal pathways described in the previous sections, we found increasing evidence of a pathway which affects the general population’s mental health through awareness of the changing climate. This may occur through learning about the risks of climate change via the media or the response to these risks by state actors. The heightened awareness of climate change and its impacts can result in psychological strain. This section examines definitions of eco-distress, its prevalence in Scotland and how it affects different population groups.

Definitions of eco-distress

We found that the emotional and psychological responses to climate change awareness have generated increasing attention and interest in the media and academia. New terms have recently emerged to describe these responses including ‘climate anxiety,’ ‘eco-anxiety,’ and ‘eco-distress’ (Thoma et al, 2021). These terms are often used inconsistently and usually interchangeably in the literature. For the sake of consistency, this report uses the term ‘eco-distress’ when referring to the broad range of these emotional responses unless otherwise stated.

Eco-distress is a relatively novel term in academic literature. Environmental philosopher Glenn Albrecht (2011) first coined the term “psychoterratic syndromes” in 2011 to describe emergent emotional responses to climate change, including eco-anxiety, eco-grief, and solastalgia. In the past ten years, interest in the topic has grown rapidly. One review found that 80 percent of all published research on eco-anxiety has been published since 2020 (Jarrett et al, 2024). This is prompted by increasing numbers of mental health practitioners, teachers, social workers, and others caring for vulnerable individuals reporting cases of deep concerns about climate change having debilitating effects on people’s daily lives (Charlson et al. 2021).

Despite increasing attention, eco-distress and the range of emotional responses to climate change it refers to are challenging concepts to pin down. There is no clear consensus or set of standard definitions, and the concepts are currently undergoing development (Coffey et al, 2021; Clayton, 2020; Brophy et al, 2022). The scope that different authors cover when using these terms range widely, from a broad concept to more narrow definitions developed for clinical or epidemiological purposes.

In many cases ’eco-distress’ and ‘eco-anxiety’ are used interchangeably to refer to a wide range of difficult emotional and physiological responses that people experience due to their awareness of climate change (Brophy et al, 2022). These include but are not limited to anxiety, grief, anger, despair, depression, hopelessness, and worry (Hickman et al, 2020). This broader use of the term is succinctly captured by the Royal College of Psychiatrists, who synonymously define eco-distress and eco-anxiety as:

“The wide range of emotions and thoughts people may experience when they hear bad news about our planet and the environment” (Royal College of Psychiatrists, 2021).

Narrower definitions have been introduced when operationalised for specific research objectives. For example, some authors distinguish between ‘climate’ and ‘eco(logical)’ distress. They reason that ecological change or crises can occur independently of the climate crisis and that therefore the two must not be conflated (Clayton et al, 2017). Some papers make clear delineations between eco-distress, eco-anxiety, and eco-grief in order to study them as distinct objects of research, objecting to the use of ‘eco-anxiety’ as an umbrella term to refer to a broad range of emotional responses (Coffey et al. 2021). Others use terms such as ‘psychoterratic syndromes’ and ‘eco-emotions’ as umbrella concepts, under which eco-anxiety and other such terms fall (Lawrance et al, 2021; Albrecht 2011).

Greater precision in the definitions of eco-distress and eco-anxiety is often seen in papers approaching the topic from a clinical research perspective, such as examining its potential for being a diagnosable pathology or exploring practical implications for healthcare practitioners (Lawrance et al, 2022). Several authors stress that eco-anxiety in these contexts must be defined as being excessive or debilitating distress, underscoring a common theme in the literature that medicalising or pathologizing eco-anxiety should be avoided on the basis that distress is a rational and healthy response to climate change (Searle and Gow, 2010; Gifford and Gifford, 2016). Despite variation in definitions, some authors have attempted to draw out common definitional features from the literature (Helm et al, 2018). For example, Brophy et al. (2022) identified the following broad common features of eco-distress:

It is future-oriented and anticipatory, distinguishing it from other forms of environmental distress like solastalgia.
It is associated with feelings of uncertainty, unpredictability, uncontrollability, and being overwhelmed, accompanied by a range of emotions such as anger, frustration, despair, guilt, shame, grief.
It should not be regarded as pathological because it is a rational and justified response that can also lead to pro-environmental behaviours and thoughts. Difficult feelings can motivate active engagement and mitigation, with some suggesting that eco-anxiety can be seen as “practical anxiety”, highlighting its potentially adaptive nature (Pihkhala, 2020).

Measures of eco-distress

Most of the research papers we reviewed in our study use unvalidated measures to measure the prevalence of eco-distress. Most define and operationalise the concept to meet the needs of their study, particularly when aligning their work with existing measures used in psychology, such as those for anxiety (Lawrance et al. 2022; Clayton, 2020; Laronow, Soltys, and Izdebski et al, 2022). Consequently, researchers must carefully interpret how each study defines eco-distress and the scope of what is being studied.

More recently there have been some notable efforts to develop validated measures for the construct. Early studies include Searle and Gow’s 12 item questionnaire to measure what they describe as climate change distress (Searle and Gow, 2010); while Reser et al (2012) developed a survey to measure climate change distress and psychological coping and adaption responses. These measures only examine the nature and extent of emotional reactions to climate change in individuals, but do not measure the relationship between these reactions and a person’s emotional wellbeing (Reser et al, 2012). This distinction is important because experiencing emotional distress when learning of climate change is not necessarily unhealthy or harmful, given the possible long-term consequences of climate change in people’s lives. Jarret et al. (2024)’s review of empirical research supporting eco-anxiety found a total of nine structurally validated measures that have been developed, of which four have been implemented in an empirical study outside the original work: the Climate Anxiety Scale (CAS), the Hogg Eco-Anxiety Scale (HEAS), the Climate Distress Scale (CDS), and the Climate Change Worry Scale (CCWS) – though, the latter two scales have not to date been implemented widely.

The CAS is the most frequently cited validated measure of eco-anxiety, with 24 papers implementing the scale (e.g., Larionow et al, 2022; Jarrett et al, 2024). It is a 13-item questionnaire used for assessing eco-anxiety as a psychological response to climate change, which draws on a number of existing measures for rumination, environmental identity, and anxiety (Wullenkord et al, 2021; Laronow et al, 2022).

The next most common scale is the HEAS with five studies to date employing this measure. It is similar in its construction to the CAS. However, it has a broader application in that it measures distress about indirect and direct climate change impacts, as well as more localised environmental changes such as habitat change (Hogg et al, 2021). Two additional validated measures have been published in the form of the CCWS, and the CDS, though neither explicitly link the measure of emotional response to a person’s wellbeing, instead mapping responses as ranging in ‘severity’ from low to high (Vercammen and Lawrance, 2023; Leger-Goodes et al, 2023).

While such measures are gaining traction, their application is not widespread. Just as the clarity of definition around the concept of eco-distress can be expected to crystalise as the body of literature expands, so too can the emergent range of measures of eco-distress be expected to gain greater validation and be more rigorously and consistently implemented across a wider range of populations in the future.

Prevalence and vulnerable groups – Scotland and UK

Concern about climate change is widespread in Scotland and the UK, but the prevalence of eco-distress remains unclear owing to the definitional inconsistencies previously discussed. A Scottish survey found 68% of respondents worried about climate change, with 25% reporting negative impacts on mental health (Andrews et al. 2022). A YouGov tracker in March 2024 showed 60% of Scots were concerned about climate change (YouGov, 2024). Data on public attitudes to the environment and the impact of climate change, Great Britain – Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) reported 75% of UK adults, including 74% in Scotland, were worried. The study found a statistically significant generational difference, with 39 percent of people aged 16-44 feeling this way compared to 12 percent of people aged 45+. Those with existing long term health conditions were also more likely to be affected. Where validated scales are employed the prevalence of eco-distress is relatively lower. For example, a UK study employing the CAS (Whitmarsh et al, 2022) found that only 5% of participants met the threshold for experiencing moderate to high climate anxiety, despite 46.2% being very or extremely worried. Likewise, a UK study using the Climate Distress Scale (Vercammen et al. 2023) found that while 60 percent of respondents experienced eco-distress, only 10 percent experienced it such that it was associated with worse wellbeing outcomes.

Young people – Global

Surveys show that distress about climate change and environmental degradation is highly prevalent among children, adolescents, and young adults globally. Measuring the prevalence of eco-anxiety among young people, as opposed to the general population, was the most common demographic focus of the studies we reviewed (Brophy et al, 2022; Hickman et al. 2021). Key findings of a global survey of young people aged 16-25 carried out by Hickman et al (2021) include that 84 percent of respondents globally reported feelings of sadness, anxiety, anger, powerlessness, helplessness, and guilt, with 59 percent reporting being very or extremely worried.

A key finding from our review is that eco-distress is closely linked to a real or perceived lack of agency to respond to the threat posed by climate change. Notably, Hickman et al. (2021) found that eco-anxiety is closely linked to perceived government inaction on climate change. In other words, the perceived failure of governments to adequately respond to the climate crisis is associated with increased distress among individuals. Lawrance et al’s (2021) study similarly highlights that young people feel powerless to affect change and feel despondent that those with the power to do so are not. Further, young people have higher exposure to information (e.g. via social media and education about climate change in schools) and so are more aware and knowledgeable about climate change and its consequences. Young people inherently have less agency to affect change (e.g. no financial independence, inability to vote in elections), contributing to a sense of hopelessness.

Young people – UK

The UK component of Hickman et al.’s (2021) global survey of people aged 16-25 showed that the climate crisis was a major cause of distress amongst young people, despite it having a relatively small impact on day-to-day functioning and quality of life of respondents. The study found that the global average for eco-distress affecting day-to-day life was 18 percent lower in the UK than the global average (46 percent). However, 28 percent reported that their feelings about climate change negatively affected their daily life and functioning in areas such as eating, concentrating, work, school, sleeping, spending time in nature, playing, having fun, and relationships. Additionally, 73 percent stated that they find the future frightening, and 80 percent believed that people have failed to take care of the planet.

This latter point is further supported by a Savanta-Comres survey commissioned by BBC Newsround that found that 58 percent of the 2000 responding children aged 8-16 were “worried about the impact that climate change will have on their lives”, and that a majority felt that climate change was broadly important to them (Savanta-Comres, 2020). The survey also reported that 64 percent of children felt that people in power were not doing enough to address climate change, and that 41 percent did not trust adults to take action (Savanta-Comres, 2020).

There is limited evidence comparing the prevalence of eco-distress to other major national threats to wellbeing experienced by young people in Scotland. Lawrance et al (2021) conducted a UK study of young people aged 16-24 (N=530) looking at psychological responses to COVID-19 and climate change. Despite COVID-19 having a more pronounced reported effect on the day-to-day functioning of young people’s lives, climate change was found to have a slightly more pronounced impact on their overall distress. The key distinctions were that climate change elicits feelings of guilt, personal responsibility, and a lack of agency to respond to it, whereas COVID-19 warranted a sense of loss and grief over quality of life.

Other groups – international

The body of literature suggests that people in the Global South have a higher prevalence of eco-distress (Hickman et al, 2021). Other groups that have been identified as being vulnerable to eco-distress include racialised communities, immigrants, and people with pre-existing mental health conditions (Cianconi et al, 2023). The evidence base is substantially less robust for these groups, though is concerned with how climate change compounds on existing marginalisation. Vulnerability here does not imply a greater prevalence, rather a higher level of threat posed to such groups as inequalities such as access to healthcare or agency to affect political change diminish these groups’ capacity to respond and adapt to climate change (Ciarconi et al, 2023).

Research and evidence gaps

Research on the relationship between climate change and mental health, while historically understudied, is a rapidly growing field.

Hayes et al. (2017) note a range of methodological challenges in researching this topic. These include the risk of either over or underestimating the mental health impact of climate change. This is due to the wide range of possible climate change related mental health outcomes, the challenges in understanding the effects of climate events over time, and difficulties in understanding the mechanism by which climate events produce mental health outcomes in the complex context of the wider social determinants of health (Hayes et al. 2017).

Two recent scoping reviews designed to evaluate the quality and range of evidence and identify research gaps (Hwong et al, 2022; Charlson et al. 2021) found that most studies available on this topic are survey-based, cross-sectional designs, using self-reported mental health measures to understand the effects of climate events. A smaller number of studies use health records combined with temperature data to understand the effects of temperature mental health.

They identified gaps in relation to research focused on protective factors, coping mechanisms, or resiliency in response to the mental health effects of climate change. Additionally, there is a lack of research that links population mental health outcome databases to weather databases, which they recommend filling through greater collaborations between mental health professional and data scientists to build clinically meaningful research tools that address the challenges of climate change. The reviews also point to the potentially fruitful opportunity to draw on literature from other disciplines that do not explicitly address climate change such as the extensive literature on mental health and natural disasters. While some of the reviews we have analysed attempt to do this, there is greater opportunity for inter-disciplinary collaboration on this topic, particularly in understanding the more indirect causal pathways.

The body of literature specifically discussing eco-distress is nascent, meaning that there are many gaps in the literature. A gap exists in understanding the prevalence of eco-distress in the UK specifically, not least its impacts on mental wellbeing. One study found that, as of 2020, only 11 percent of studies on the mental health impact of climate change focused on psychological responses to climate change awareness (Charlson et al, 2021).

Ambiguity and inconsistency in how eco-distress is defined is partly explained by the absence of qualitative research into eco-anxiety. Approximately 75 percent of studies on eco-anxiety are quantitative, the rest being mixed method or qualitative (Jarrett et al, 2024). Although 2021 saw an increase in the number of qualitative studies published, quantitative research still represented the majority of papers that year (Brophy et al, 2022). This means there is relatively little discussion about the nature of eco-anxiety and a lack of exploration into its qualitative causes. This is particularly important given the lack of clarity in the terms employed and the wide range of terms used.

Evidence on interventions addressing the mental health risks of climate change

Summary of findings from Chapter 5

This chapter addresses Research Question 3:

What is the evidence on effective prevention and early intervention, and on responding to mental health and wellbeing risks and impacts in a climate change context in Scotland?

Key findings:

The evidence base for interventions is thin. Only 23 evaluated intervention types were found which address prevention, early intervention, or responses to the mental health risks of climate change. Eight of these were delivered in developing countries, and only two were based in Scotland.
Almost half of the evaluated interventions focused on building resilience amongst the participants. The other evaluated interventions focused on capacity building, social connections, nature connection, and encouraging climate action. Capacity building interventions had a high-level of evaluation.
Evaluations of interventions measured a wide range of outcomes. These included improved wellbeing (6), improved ability to cope (6), and relief from psychological disorders (4).
Four other types of intervention were found. These were a) promoting public participation in decision making, b) supporting mental health practitioner development, c) climate justice and d) public communication. To date, there has been no evaluations of the interventions within these categories.

Introduction

For policymakers, the mental health risks outlined in Chapter 4 imply that actions and programmes should be designed to address the causes of poor mental health and its symptoms. This chapter focuses on public health interventions that directly address poor mental health resulting from the impacts of climate change or wider concerns. In this section we explore the broad topic of evidence on effective prevention and early intervention, and on responding to mental health and wellbeing risks and impacts in a climate change context in Scotland. We have included any intervention or programme which has been designed to help alleviate adverse mental health and wellbeing effects of climate change and have focused on those which may be applicable to Scotland.

Methodology

This chapter analyses mental health interventions. We took interventions to be programmes, policies, and practices aimed at supporting mental health in the context of climate change. We found 60 interventions during the shortlisting process, derived from the longlist of material which answered Research Question 3. The shortlist of 60 was analysed on several grounds including whether the intervention had been evaluated, what the evaluation found, and replicability of the intervention. ‘Evaluation’ here means any systematic process to judge the merit, worth or significance of an intervention by combining evidence and judgement. ‘Replicability’ we take to mean a project has been sufficiently described, evaluated and shown to be effective in meeting its objectives, there is an understanding of why it worked and how it may need to be adapted to be repeated elsewhere. Appendix A describes the analytical procedures in more detail.

This chapter begins with an overview of the different types of programmes that have been delivered to support mental health in a climate context and their levels of evidence. The remainder of the chapter explores the nine different types of intervention, describing how they may lead to mental health benefits, and what these interventions look like in terms of their target groups, outcomes, and how they were delivered.

Overview of types of interventions and evidence

We found a growing number of international studies of wellbeing interventions in the context of climate change. These studies broadly agree on how to categorise mental health interventions. From reviewing their frameworks, we identified nine exclusive intervention categories which were potentially relevant to a Scottish context. These were: psychological resilience and coping; capacity building; social connection; nature connection; encouraging action; democratic participation; practitioner development; public communication, and; climate justice.

In practice, these categories were not exclusive. Ninety three percent of interventions crossed multiple categories. For example, a group therapy intervention might focus on primarily on building psychological resilience but also have a secondary focus on building social connections between participants. Encouraging action was notable in this regard. No mental health intervention had a primary purpose of encouraging action. Yet many interventions encouraged participants to take climate action through other means such as mental health toolkits, discussion club, or community gardening.

Our review identified 60 interventions. Most have been recently designed and delivered. Only 36 percent of interventions found had been evaluated. However, interventions building psychological resilience and coping skills have been delivered more than other and have and relatively frequently evaluated (9). Capacity building interventions have been delivered less frequently but the evaluations that have taken place are of higher quality than for some of the other interventions. For four intervention categories, there were no evaluations of interventions identified. Table 2 shows which intervention categories have been most frequently evaluated, and which outcomes were measured in those evaluated interventions.

Category of intervention	Number of separate interventions	Number of these interventions that have been evaluated	Measured outcomes in evaluated interventions
Category of intervention	Number of separate interventions	Number of these interventions that have been evaluated	Relief from disorders	Reduced distress	Improved wellbeing	Coping self-efficacy	Reduced isolation	Validate emotions
Resilience and coping	24	9	2	1	2	3	1
Capacity building	4	4	1	1	2
Social connection	11	5				1	2	2
Nature connection	6	5	1		2	2
Encouraging action (secondary only)^[3]	16	(5)		1	1	1	1	1
Democratic participation	7	0
Practitioner development	5	0
Public communication	2	0
Climate justice	1	0
Total	60	22

Table 2 Summary of the types of interventions that have taken place, the number which have been evaluated, and the main measured outcomes for the evaluated interventions

Intervention types with evaluated interventions

In this section we focus on intervention types that have evaluated interventions. For each type of intervention, we outline the reasoning for how this may help and the evaluated outcomes from different interventions in this group. We’ve also noted interventions that may be replicable or scaled up further in Scotland.

Psychological resilience and coping interventions

The most common form of mental health and wellbeing intervention^{^[4]} in a climate change context were those aimed at building psychological resilience and coping mechanisms. Psychological resilience is the ability to regain or remain in a healthy mental state during crises without long-term negative consequences, whilst coping mechanisms are the patterns and behaviours people use to deal with unusually stressful situations. Both resilience and coping techniques are useful both for ‘bouncing back’ from climate events and for dealing with climate distress day-to-day without being overwhelmed. We identified 24 separate resilience interventions of which nine were evaluated. Of the 24, 17 focused on climate distress, and six on responding to climate events.

Resilience interventions use a number of different tools and approaches to help people cope (Dooley et al, 2021), including reframing climate distress as connection, care and empathy, and cultivating positive emotions, such as optimism and realistic hope (Hickman, 2020). Similarly, resilience interventions for climate distress had a wide variety of target groups: the general population (6 interventions), teachers (4), youth (3), and activists (3). Resilience interventions around climate hazards (such as floods) were targeted at rural populations (2), those with poor mental health (2) or any resident (2).

The diversity and scale of interventions for building resilience is noteworthy. Forty percent of identified interventions primarily focused on building resilience, as well as the range of target groups and diversity of approaches. This indicates that strengthening emotional resilience, rather than moving straight into action, is the most accepted approach for mental health professionals for people facing climate change (Dooley et al, 2021).

The evaluated interventions for psychological resilience-based programmes were focused on two outcomes: developing coping mechanisms and giving relief from disorders such as anxiety and depression.

For coping mechanisms, one group therapy-based intervention, delivered following Super Typhoon Haiyan, found that participants improved in coping self-efﬁcacy in all module domains managing unproductive thoughts and emotions and identifying personal strengths (Hechenova et al, 2018). A Skills for Life Adjustment and Resilience (SOLAR) intervention delivered after Cyclone Pam resulted in signiﬁcantly decreased distress/post-traumatic stress symptoms and functional impairment after the intervention, with some effects retained at 6-month follow-up (Gibson et al, 2021).

For relief from disorders, group therapy methods appear to be effective. Rational Emotive Behavioural Therapy (REBT), a type of Cognitive Behavioural Therapy (CBT), was administered in groups to 49 participants with depression in Kogi state, Nigeria, following a series of floods. Researchers found that REBT was significantly effective in decreasing post traumatic depression among flood victims. Fatigue, feelings of hopelessness, and suicidal thoughts had been significantly reduced after being exposed to REBT (Ede et al, 2021). Flooding in the UK has been shown to be associated with higher instances of PTSD and anxiety (Jermacane, 2018). A survey in Aberdeenshire found that 71 percent of respondents reported experiencing anxiety (Andrews, 2020). The large effect size which continued at follow-up is promising for potential replication in Scotland. While REBT is currently not a standard therapeutic approach in Scotland, REBT and other talking therapies may be appropriate and fruitful avenues to explore for climate change related mental health issues.

Capacity building interventions

Capacity building is a programme which tries to improve a community’s potential to act and respond to climate events. Whilst only four capacity building interventions were identified, each of these had been evaluated, mostly to a high standard.

The four identified capacity-building interventions in the literature covered two delivery models: training and financial aid.

We found two training programmes. First, a 3-day mental health integrated disaster preparedness intervention was delivered in a group setting in Haiti. This disaster preparation training in Haiti^[5] showed reduced symptoms associated with depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and functional impairment, and increased peer-based help-giving and help-seeking (James et al, 2020). The second training programme was the Rural Adversity Mental Health Program (RAMHP) in Australia which offered training and support in the context of drought. The RAMHP training programme increased mental health understanding and willingness to assist others for over 90 percent of participants (Maddox, 2022).

Our search also found two financial assistance programmes. First, livestock trading grants and collective-action groups were delivered to 2300 people in Ethiopia. The livestock trading grant in Ethiopia resulted in confidence in the future and ability to recover from a crisis being much more likely to rise (Gibson et al, 2021). Second, we found a Red Cross intervention in Bangladesh which distributed an unconditional cash transfer in advance of a monsoon flood. These direct cash transfers in advance of flooding in Bangladesh appear to have been effective in improving household access to food and reducing psychosocial stress during and after the flood period (Maddox et al, 2022).

Financial assistance was offered in Bangladesh and Ethiopia, yet the impact may be in part due to both countries having GDP per capita below $3,000. These interventions were mostly funded or run by international humanitarian organisations rather than being integrated into the local system. These factors mean that, despite their high evidence level, there is some uncertainty about the replicability of capacity building interventions in Scotland, which has a high GDP per capita, and fewer outside-party delivery of interventions.

Social connection interventions

We found eleven initiatives which used social connection to help participants deal with mental health issues in a climate change context. Five of these have been evaluated. Social connection interventions are particularly common in the UK, where five of these interventions have been delivered or developed. All social connection interventions were and appear to prioritise two mental health related outcomes: improved social capital and validation of emotions.

First, social connection interventions can help reduce isolation and increase social capital in participants, through forming new acquaintances and resources. Examples include a cooperative enquiry into climate change in a Welsh school. This helped the participants feel less alone and more connected with group members, teachers and the school (Togneri, 2022). Social connection has been shown to protect mental health following disasters. Using a more extreme example to illustrate this, people with higher levels of social support prior to and following Hurricane Katrina had lower levels of psychological distress, even years after the event (Lowe et al, 2010).

The number of wellbeing interventions focused on building connections to others reflects the understanding that social networks are both a basic human need and a primary source of resilience (Holt-Lunstad, 2020). Social support has been found to protect against stress and is strongly associated with both physical and mental health (Leigh-Hunt et al. 2017). This is in line with the social determinants of health model that shows loneliness and social isolation increase the risk of poor mental health (Kirkbride et al, 2024).

The second major outcome from social connection interventions is validation of emotions. In group settings, people can share their feelings about the climate crisis and be heard by others who feel similarly. Climate Cafes (Box 1) are one of the most popular intervention designs to achieve both reduced isolation and validating negative feeling.

Acknowledging and validating feelings in relation to climate distress has been particularly important for young people. As highlighted in Section 4.5.3, young people often feel their concerns about the environment are ignored or belittled and have no one to talk about their worries (Atherton, 2020). Providing safe spaces to express emotions is important for avoiding isolation and emotional repression; often this will involve parents, caregivers and educators initiating conversations or actively listening (Atherton, 2020).

Climate Cafés

Climate Cafes are widespread across Scotland and, increasingly, worldwide. Somewhat confusingly, there are two main types of Climate Café with differing emphases.

First, Climate Psychology Alliance (CPA) Climate Cafes are primarily a space for talking about emotions. A typical CPA Climate Café has two facilitators. An initial round of sharing is often scaffolded by images or natural objects that participants are invited to interact with. After an initial round of reflections from each participant, the conversation is opened up and participants are invited to respond to, and reflect on, the contributions of others. Throughout the Café, the focus of discussion is on participants’ thoughts and feelings about the climate and ecological crises.

A forthcoming study of CPA Climate Cafés found that prior to attending attendees had felt “helpless at times… depressed… angry” . Regarding this type of distress as unique to the climate crisis, it was regarded as impervious to existing therapies: “CBT won’t fix my climate anxiety.” Reflecting upon their Climate Café experience, participants noted how they had not been fully conscious of the depth and breadth of their emotional responses to the climate crisis prior to attendance.

The study showed participants had a sense of surprise at how quickly and strongly a connection developed in a new group. Attendees could “express yourself more authentically”, drop the mask of a “brave face”: “meeting someone who is seeing the same thing that I’m seeing and then saying, oh, that’s really hard, isn’t it…like ‘oh thank God’”. CPA Climate Cafés were seen to offer a contrast to the other climate related groups participants had attended, which often had a tonne of “we need action… there’s this line of anger to it.”

The second type of climate Café offered by the Climate Café® Network is more action orientated, though focused first on sharing and building connections between participants. These Climate Cafés® are defined as “informal spaces for chat [which] often inspire and inform action” and are delivered throughout Scotland and worldwide.

As informal community meetings for people to share climate-related feelings and inspire collective action, Climate Cafés® help participants to validate feelings around climate distress, increase awareness of threats to planetary health, action taken in the face of climate change, and improved social connection. One Scottish participant said, “Here are like-minded people with an equal passion and inspiring, practical answers to climate issues – both wider issues and very close to home.” Another participant stated “I feel completely comfortable when stating my opinion on matters or contributing ideas as I am never alienated, I am always encouraged to just go for it.”

Both CPA Climate Cafés and the Climate Café® Network are well established in Scotland. The Climate Café® Network originated in Scotland where there are 26 ongoing Cafés®. Both types of Climate Café are freely offered to all attendees. A number of tools and training offers exist to set up new cafés. Further evaluation should be commissioned to increase confidence in the outcomes from Climate Cafes and to determine which factors are critical to their success, and how this varies among population groups. Climate Cafes are already used in COP events and Community Climate Action Networks in Scotland and could be further scaled and integrated into mainstream public health, for instance, as an option in social prescription.

Nature connection interventions

Our review found seven interventions focused on nature connection, four of which have been evaluated. Two main types of outcomes were found: improvements to wellbeing and increased self-efficacy and coping.

Two evaluated interventions have focused on improving wellbeing among participants. Wetlands for Wellbeing in the UK has been delivered to people with poor mental health with strong results, helping participants connect to nature as a space of reflection, resourcing, and inspiration, supporting them to manage distress. Statistically significant improvements were found in mental wellbeing, anxiety, stress and emotional wellbeing, as well as social isolation, confidence to be in nature, and management of physical health (Maund et al, 2019). Another evaluated nature-based intervention addressing climate change which included a community garden hub demonstrated improvements in mental health and social connectedness for participants (Patrick et al, 2011).

Wellbeing outcomes have been strongly associated with nature connection for some time. As described in 4.3.2, climate-related loss of biodiversity represents a risk to mental health as both nature exposure and nature connection have positive impacts on mental health and wellbeing and allow humans to flourish (Passmore and Howell, 2014). Nature-based interventions have been found to reduce anxiety, reduce stress-related cortisol levels, reduce neurodevelopmental disorders, reduce severity of depression, increase cognitive function and promote social cohesion (Nabhan et al, 2020). Nature connection is also associated with improved wellbeing in general, positive moods and lower distress (Nisbet, Shaw, and Lachance, 2020).

The second outcome, self-efficacy and coping, was found in two evaluated interventions. One example of a nature-based programme delivered in Scotland, the Green Team, showed strong post-activity survey results, particularly around self-efficacy and social connection: 94 percent of young people involved in the one project increased their confidence; for another project 95 percent of young people developed positive relationships (Grant, 2021; The Green Team, 2023). Borderlands Earth Care Youth Institute, a nature-restoration project for young people project on the US-Mexico border, improved emotional strength, as well as leadership, sense of community, and social responsibility (Nabhan et al, 2020).

We found research in a small student population showing exposure to nature improving coping ability for climate distress, often through developing a sense of peace, hope, calm, ease of worries and grounding (Grant, 2021). Most nature-based interventions are delivered to marginalised people or those more susceptible to climate anxiety (such as young people from lower income households) who may have less access to nature.

However, it is notable that only one of the four evaluated interventions was explicitly addressing eco-distress. There’s some evidence to suggest nature-connection interventions have perverse effects for those experiencing climate distress. Whilst studies generally agree that spending time in nature (nature exposure) is an effective strategy for coping with climate distress (Dooley et al, 2021), several studies have found that feeling connected to nature is associated with climate change anxiety (Curll et al, 2022). For this reason, some programmes seek to encourage both nature-connection and optimism simultaneously (Smithsonian, 2021). Nature connection interventions also have different designs depending on the groups that are engaged. In the UK, many minorities feel excluded from rural settings and groups have been established to provide safe spaces for ethnic minorities, such as Black Girls Hike and Flock Together, a bird watching group for people of colour.

Interventions encouraging meaningful action

We found 16 interventions which encouraged participants to take meaningful action, five of which were evaluated. Fifteen of the 16 interventions related to climate distress. As described in the discussion of eco-anxiety in 4.5, emotions around climate change including distress are increasingly understood as rational and proportionate responses to an existential threat. Our review has found that action taken by government, groups, or individuals to combat climate change can alleviate some of these negative effects. Climate distress often involves feelings of helplessness due to the scale of the issue of climate change. Action and activism can help address these threats by helping individuals focus on what they can control, thereby promoting a sense of agency, efficacy, and competence (Schwartz et al, 2022).

It is particularly notable that all climate action interventions for mental health have action as a follow-on aim rather than encouraging participants to leap straight to solutions. Climate anxiety researcher Pikhala and psychoanalyst Randall caution against pushing clients too quickly into action, emphasising the importance of addressing emotional and identity challenges first (Dooley et al, 2021). For mental health interventions, in order to engage in action, it is vital to first provide a space for the expression of emotion.

The most common outcome of encouraging action is improved levels of empowerment, which was an expected outcome in seven out of the 16 action-based interventions. A social connection intervention in Wales used Cooperative Inquiry to improve knowledge of a group of pupils. Qualitative research found that ‘knowing about solutions’ made a difference. This knowledge was directly connected by the young people to their wellbeing and a sense of hope, highlighting the importance of envisioning alternative futures (Togneri, 2022). In Cameroon, the Ibanikom Climate Mental Health Literacy Project facilitated meetings for flood-affected communities, allowing participants to learn about the effects of climate change on mental health and co-develop local, small-scale culturally relevant integrated health and agriculture projects (Xue et al, 2024).

Another intervention, the Work That Reconnects, has been developed to help participants talk about how they feel, moving from hope and despair, build empathy and begin acting upon these feelings. The intervention is not only focused on climate change but a sense of connection to the wider ecology. Research found that participants find concrete ways of living out hope in their daily lives: one participant noted “these questions made me rethink about the legacy I will leave behind” (Hathaway, 2017). All eleven research participants in a study commented on how it is helpful as a framework for life, sharing that they use it in their relationships with family and friends, activism, and making major life decisions.

Intervention types with lower levels of evidence

We found that government and third-sector responses to climate change’s effect on mental health are not limited to direct services to those effected. The disempowerment felt by many in climate distress has led to innovative new programmes to help restore a sense of agency to those effected, including through participation in decision-making, and communication. This section gives an overview of four types of intervention which are emerging as the scale of the climate crisis becomes apparent, but which to date have no evaluated programmes. We will briefly examine how interventions are theorised to support wellbeing and describe any recognised barriers to impact in Scotland.

Interventions promoting participation in decision-making

Citizen participation in decision-making is increasingly perceived as not only a matter of justice and democracy but also a practical necessity for transitioning into sustainability (Huttunen et al, 2022). While these interventions mainly concern wider issues than mental health, participation in decision making has been theorised to have benefits to wellbeing, particularly empowerment. We found seven wellbeing interventions which focused broadly on participation. A large number of these were in Scotland, particularly within the umbrella of the Climate Change Public Engagement Strategy.

To date, publicly available evidence remains thin and shows mixed outcomes. The Scottish Climate Assembly (2020-2022) reporting included evidence on the emotional experience of assembly members, focusing on optimism, distress and worry of members throughout the process. Findings indicated that members were less worried and more hopeful than the general population about what Scotland can do to tackle climate change and became increasingly optimistic that ‘things will work out fine’ over the course of the main Assembly period (Andrews et al, 2022). However, 21 percent reported their feelings about climate change were having a negative impact on their mental health. The Assembly member survey showed that feelings of worry increased, and optimism decreased. In addition, many participants reported feeling disappointed at the final meeting which reviewed the government response to their report (Andrews, 2022).

Practitioner development interventions

We identified five interventions aimed at increasing mental health practitioners’ knowledge and skills to respond to climate related mental health issues. These typically involved workshops that facilitated discussion and training in relevant approaches to their practice. These initiatives provide training to practitioners to treat eco-anxiety not as a personal neurosis but rather as evidence of the client being connected to a greater whole (Dooley et al, 2021). Many interventions focus on grief awareness, including anticipatory loss, disenfranchised grief, and use Worden’s model of the tasks of grief^{^[6]} to successfully address eco-anxiety (Worden, 2009).

Climate justice awareness interventions

Climate justice is a movement that connects the climate crisis to social injustice including racial discrimination, poverty, and human rights. Many strategies in Scotland and worldwide are developing programmes to ensure that the transition to net zero is fair to all groups. However, no evaluated interventions were found which had an explicit mental health focus. Evidence suggests that educating people about climate justice can help them cope with climate anxiety and support their involvement in creating fair solutions (Davenport, 2021). Current evaluation work on Just Transition in Scotland (Tavistock Institute, 2024) has found that there will be overlap with outcomes from participative decision-making interventions, since community empowerment is a key objective to both types of intervention.

Public communication interventions

The final area we found for intervening in the mental health risks of climate change was public communication. Messaging on climate change needs to be viewed through the lens of building resilience and agency or it may increase levels of climate dread and denialism (Hathaway, 2017). From a mental health standpoint, communication should seek to give agency to those in distress through engaging empathy, cultivating hope and focusing on local level actions rather than provoking guilt. Scotland has delivered public engagement activities in these areas, including the Let’s Do Net Zero website and toolkit, Our World, Our Impact, Climate Beacons, and Climate Ready Classrooms. Little evidence exists on the success of these or other projects in addressing climate anxiety or climate events. However, the Climate Beacons evaluation report shows results in community engagement that may relate to outcomes of interest, such as new connections made, confidence and empowerment (Hall and Coenon-Rowe, 2022).

Implications for Scotland

From the evidence review on interventions, scaling up appears most promising for interventions which promote resilience and capacity building due to the large volume of impactful and evaluated interventions in these two areas. Resilience building and coping are essential components for both climate distress and ‘bouncing back’ from climate change related events. Scottish policy makers can draw on a wide range of interventions with established mental health outcomes in these two categories. The strength of evidence for capacity building implies that for interventions responding to climate events, building community skills such as disaster preparedness and mental health first aid may be helpful in avoiding and mitigating direct and indirect mental health effects.

We also found three other types of evaluated interventions: social connection, nature connection and meaningful action. Each type is already delivered in Scotland and could possibly be scaled up and integrated with existing services and strategies. Interventions such as Climate Cafes, the Work That Reconnects, and various nature connection initiatives are already delivered in Scotland often as part of strategies including the Climate Change Public Engagement Strategy.

Climate action co-benefits and risks

Summary of findings from Chapter 6

This chapter addresses Research Question 4:

What is the evidence of co-benefits and risks, or unintended consequences, for mental health and wellbeing from climate action (both mitigation and adaptation) relevant in a Scottish context?

Key findings:

Climate action can lead to improved mental health and wellbeing through supporting improved physical health and by addressing some of the social determinants of mental health such as financial security, and quality housing. Policymakers taking a cross-disciplinary approach to climate action and understanding the interconnected pathways of impact can achieve a win-win outcome for the climate and mental-health.
Energy efficiency measures in homes can lead to warmer homes which may increase thermal satisfaction; improve air quality; and reduce fuel poverty, in turn leading to financial security and improved general physical health. However, with increasing temperatures and overheating risks, it is important that building regulations support proper ventilation and cooling adaptation measures.
Active transport measures can improve mental health through increased physical activity and greater social participation. Equitable approaches to transport policy are key to ensure vulnerable groups are able to take advantage of the benefits.
Nature-based climate solutions have the potential to improve mental health and wellbeing through increased physical activity and a greater sense of community. However, they currently risk offering most benefits for those who live in more affluent areas given that they have better access to green spaces than those in deprived areas.

Introduction

This section examines the intended or unintended co-benefits and risks of ‘climate action’ for mental health and wellbeing. In the context of this chapter, ‘climate action’ refers to policy interventions that aim to address climate change (mitigation and adaptation). Co-benefits are the range of positive side effects from climate action on mental health and wellbeing that can equal or even outweigh the importance of environmental impacts. Conversely, risks are the range of negative unintended consequences from climate action.

In this review we frame climate action as adopting one of two approaches: climate change adaptation and mitigation. Adaptation is about managing the impacts of climate change as it occurs, for example, installing flood defences (Hiscock et al, 2017). Climate change mitigation is primarily concerned with the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, such as using renewable sources of energy (Ürge-Vorsatz, 2014). While climate action primarily serves an environmental purpose, it sits within a broader interconnected system which targets other major challenges. In Scotland, adaptation and mitigation strategy also focuses on addressing public health issues, reducing poverty and inequality, and building a stronger economy (Liski et al, 2019).

As discussed in Chapter 4, a cause of eco-distress is the (perceived) lack of action by decision makers and governmental institutions to combat climate change. The most direct method to address this cause of eco-distress is therefore to take effective climate action. Climate action on an individual, community and systems level (governments, corporations etc.) can work to help people cope with the difficult emotions surrounding climate change and help generate hopeful perspectives, improving mental health and wellbeing (Lawrance et al, 2022). Individual climate action such as reducing car use or choosing a plant-based diet can lead to a positive emotional response through acting in line with one’s values. Collective climate action can strengthen solidarity and social networks which may be particularly supportive for those living in climate vulnerable areas, such as island communities in Scotland. Systems climate action and its effective communication can improve the population’s trust in societal actors to help solve the climate emergency which can help reduce distress, particularly for young people (Lawrance et al, 2022).

We chose to focus on systems level climate action in our analysis. This is primarily due to there being a sufficient evidence base of relevant research to undertake our analysis for systems level climate action, but not for community or individual levels. Furthermore, putting trust in societal actors with visible climate leadership appears to be one of the most effective strategies to reduce and help prevent eco-anxiety impacting on wellbeing (Lawrance et al, 2022). Therefore, examining system level climate action may be the most useful analysis for policy makers.

Methodology

We reviewed 22 shortlisted sources related to the co-benefits and risks of climate action for mental health and wellbeing. While the health co-benefits or risks of climate action related to physical health are well documented, those related to mental health and wellbeing are less explored, as in most cases mental health and wellbeing are not the primary focus of the climate action so data on these outcomes is rarely collected. We found some evidence indicating risks to wellbeing, particularly when strategies do not adequately address concerns of equity, equality, and justice. However, the extent of these risks were difficult to determine due to limited evidence broken down by population demographic type (e.g., age, gender, ethnicity). We also found very limited evidence for these effects in Scotland.

From the 22 studies, we identified three main areas of climate action were most relevant for mental health and wellbeing co-benefits and risks in Scotland, which we have used as the thematic basis for presenting our analysis: (1) housing (energy efficiency measures), (2) transport (active travel) and (3) nature-based solutions including blue-green infrastructure. Other areas such as land management (biological sequestration, peatland restoration, afforestation) and food have not been included due to less evidence of direct causal pathways between the action and mental health or wellbeing (Lawrance et al, 2022).

Most evidence we found regarding mental health and wellbeing co-benefits of climate action were related to mitigation measures. In a Scottish context, evidence related to adaptation measures was more limited. However, there was some evidence related to how managed realignment, as an adaptation measure to address coastal erosion, can pose both co-benefits and unintended negative consequences for coastal communities. See section 6.4 for discussion.

Climate action related to housing

In Scotland, the housing sector is an important area for developing climate mitigation and adaptation, with mitigation methods addressing the energy efficiency of housing providing the most relevant evidence. Energy efficiency improvement measures, such as wall and roof insulation, boiler upgrading and draught-proofing, can support a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing the fuel needed to heat homes. Much of the literature analysing energy efficiency measures used environmental, public health, and anti-poverty lenses, which are relevant given the rise of fuel poverty and the cost-of-living crisis in Scotland. Moreover, there are strong links between energy efficiency measures and physical health improvements, particularly respiratory health. This is particularly relevant for Scotland where ill-health related to cold homes is a significant public health issue (UK Climate Risk, 2021).

The co-benefits and risks from climate action on housing are presented below through their causal mechanisms.

Improved thermal satisfaction

The evidence reviewed in our study presented it as an established fact that living in cold housing can contribute to poor mental health and wellbeing (Grey et al, 2017). Common mental health disorders such as anxiety and depression, as well as respiratory conditions such as asthma, have all been linked to living in cold homes. Vulnerable groups are more likely to live in poor quality housing. Vulnerable groups are also more likely to be unable to afford to turn heating on, and to spend more time in their homes (Gray et al, 2017). Energy efficiency measures can lead to warmer homes, and there is substantial evidence to suggest that improved thermal satisfaction can be linked to improved mental health (Hiscock et al, 2017). This is particularly true for those with existing chronic respiratory conditions (Thomson et al, 2013). However, there is also some evidence to suggest that energy efficiency measures could reduce thermal satisfaction through overheating, negatively impacting resident wellbeing (Hiscock et al, 2017). This risk is particularly relevant considering heatwaves and rising temperatures are an outcome of climate change in Scotland.

Improved air quality

Damp housing, the presence of mould, and poor indoor air quality have considerable negative impacts on overall health, including mental health (Hiscock et al, 2017). Access to warm and dry housing, especially for vulnerable groups such as children, older people and those with existing health conditions, is therefore associated with improved wellbeing (Vardoulakis et al, 2015; Bikomeye et al, 2021). Improved air quality can enhance the comfort of a home, making it easier to relax. However, if retrofitting is mismanaged and ventilation is not adequately considered, indoor air quality can worsen, potentially having unexpected negative consequences for wellbeing (Hiscock et al, 2017; Hiscock et al, 2014). By taking a more integrated approach to new-builds and retrofitting, risks associated with high indoor vapour and mould can be avoided (UK Climate Risk, 2021).

Potential reduction of fuel poverty

Energy efficiency measures may contribute to improved wellbeing by making heating more affordable. In Scotland, the majority of residential energy use is spent on heating homes (UK Climate Risk, 2021). Energy efficiency measures can reduce energy costs, alleviating some of the financial burden associated with fuel poverty. There is evidence to suggest that lower energy costs can reduce financial stress, benefitting mental health. Additionally, residents would have more money to spend on other necessities such as food, rent and transport (Grey et al, 2017). It can be inferred from this that energy efficiency measures could have the most impact on vulnerable groups and those in precarious financial situations.

Increased social interaction

Our review found evidence demonstrating the importance people place on their homes as places of comfort and relaxation (Hiscock et al, 2017). Warmer homes and improved air quality can lead to higher home satisfaction, which in turn can have a positive influence on social interaction as residents are more comfortable inviting guests to visit (Grey et al, 2017).

Climate action related to transport

Our review found evidence of the co-benefits for mental health and wellbeing of climate action regarding transport (Hiscock et al, 2017; Davis and White, 2022; ClimateXChange, 2021; Milner, Davies, and Wilkinson, 2012), including climate mitigation strategies such as individuals reducing their use of cars; policies promoting active travel (walking, wheeling, and cycling); and the prioritisation of public transport. These strategies aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while emphasising the health and wellbeing benefits of increased physical exercise and reduced noise and air pollution. These measures are known to provide a range of health and wellbeing benefits such as reduction in depression (Hiscock et al, 2014), reductions in obesity, diabetes, respiratory conditions, and cardiovascular disease and are shown to benefit mental health and wellbeing (Douglas et al, 2023).

In Scotland, the 20-minute neighbourhood concept supports a behavioural shift towards active travel. The idea behind it is that residents can meet their daily needs within a 20-minute walk, cycle or wheel of their home. Daily needs may include food shopping, accessing primary healthcare services, getting to school, and using public transport for onward travel to work and leisure activities (ClimateXChange, 2021). Another mechanism for climate change mitigation found in the literature is road space reallocation. This policy involves repurposing existing motor infrastructure (roads, roadside car parking) to promote sustainable transport (e.g., cycle lanes) or for community use (e.g., greenspace) (Douglas et al., 2023).

The co-benefits and risks from climate action on transport are presented below through their causal mechanisms.

Increased physical activity

The literature reviewed reports strong links between increased physical activity and improved mental health and wellbeing (Penedo and Dahn, 2005; Muirie, 2017). There is evidence that 20-minute neighbourhood infrastructure can increase walking and cycling behaviour in residents by reducing the need to travel by car. This behaviour change has physical health co-benefits, such as reducing the risk of obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular diseases.

However, there may be unintended negative consequences of promoting active travel on residents’ wellbeing if policies that restrict car use are perceived as reducing independence or personal choice (Douglas et al, 2023). Moreover, in some areas, residents may unsafe walking alone or in poorly lit areas, preferring to use a car for personal safety. Feeling afraid may counteract a positive wellbeing effect and reduce people’s willingness to take up active transport options (Hiscock et al, 2014).

Reduced social isolation and improved community relationships

Safer walking and cycling routes can build more connected communities and increase the likelihood of social interaction compared to car use. This is due to people spending more time in their local area and being more likely to interact with others living nearby when using public transport or actively traveling. There is evidence that demonstrates the positive impact this has on wellbeing, including general mood improvement (Hiscock et al, 2017). However, unless a lens of equity is used when implementing 20-minute neighbourhood and active travel infrastructure, accessibility for disabled people may be overlooked. This is particularly true for road space reallocation which can make car travel difficult (Douglas et al, 2023). Such changes may negatively impact the wellbeing of those rely on cars by reducing independence and ability to travel.

Climate action using nature-based solutions

Our review found that nature-based solutions are important climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies with co-benefits for mental health and wellbeing. This was supported by systematic literature reviews such as Hiscock et al. (2017). Nature-based solutions are ‘actions to protect, sustainably manage, or restore natural ecosystems, that address societal challenges’ (World Bank, 2020). While there are many types of nature-based solutions, this report focuses on blue-green infrastructure, which provided the most relevant, high-quality evidence. Blue-green infrastructure can be defined as ‘a strategically planned multifunctional network of natural and semi-natural areas and features designed and managed to deliver multiple benefits to people’ (Kirby and Scott, 2023). Examples include linear greenways and paths; ground, wall and roof vegetation; urban trees and streetscapes; parks and green spaces; peri-urban and rural forests and woodlands; inland blue infrastructure regeneration (ponds, lakes, wetlands, canals, rivers); and coastal blue infrastructure regeneration. Blue-green infrastructure contributes to climate change mitigation by cooling down towns and cities (reducing the urban heat island effect) and capturing carbon. It can also help improve urban resilience to flooding by reducing stormwater runoff (Kirby and Scott, 2023).

Our review identified direct causal mechanisms tied to improved wellbeing through blue-green infrastructure, including increased physical activity, spending time in nature, and a sense of stewardship. Indirect pathways mentioned in the literature include the potential wellbeing benefits and risks of increased tourism and local business use resulting from blue-green infrastructure implementation. Different types of green infrastructure may produce different mental health and wellbeing co-benefits or risks, however the high-level analysis adopted in our approach produced insufficient evidence to offer a more granular typography of this effect. Architectural and urban design-focused green infrastructure, such as sustainable drainage solutions, cannot be covered in our analysis since there is insufficient evidence related to wellbeing co-benefits in a Scottish context. This may warrant future exploration if new evidence becomes available.

The co-benefits and risks from climate action through nature-based solutions are presented below through their causal mechanisms.

Increased physical activity

Regeneration of green and blue assets can lead to more local opportunities for physical activity. There is a strong link between exercise and positive mental health and wellbeing, both immediate and long-term. Being more active and increasing fitness can lead to improved physical health through reduced obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease risk (Bikomeye et al, 2021). Improved self-perceived general physical health can enhance overall quality of life and general wellbeing. However, unless implementation and regeneration of blue-green infrastructure is applied equitably, it risks benefitting primarily those in higher socio-economic communities. Environmental justice studies have demonstrated that those living in more deprived areas of towns and cities have less access to high-quality greenspaces and that the residents have poorer overall physical and mental health compared to those who live closer to green environments (Baka and Mabon, 2022).

Spending time in nature

The implementation and regeneration of blue-green infrastructure positively impact biodiversity, encouraging local people to spend more time in nature. As described in the previous sections in 4.3.2 and 5.2.4, our review found strong evidence of links between time spent in nature and improved wellbeing including reduced stress, recovery from mental fatigue and increased happiness (Bikomeye et al, 2021). Specific examples include studies showing the positive impact of socially prescribed visits to wetlands on patients’ anxiety and depression (Kirby and Scott, 2023). Existing research demonstrates that blue-green infrastructure must have essential components in order to produce these benefits, such as tranquillity, perceived ‘greenness’ and a sense of safety (Baka and Mabon, 2022). There is also evidence to suggest that connecting with nature can enhance ecological awareness, which, along with wellbeing improvements, can also elicit feelings of distress (Smith et al, 2024).

Sense of stewardship and community

Visible efforts to improve communities through linear greenways and paths, parks and green spaces, regenerated canals and wetlands can increase residents’ sense of pride and stewardship in their community. Our review found evidence supporting the idea that an improved sense of place and increased social cohesion benefits social wellbeing (Bikomeye, Rublee, and Beyer, 2021). Furthermore, good quality blue-green infrastructure can support the maintenance of collective identity and social memory (Baka and Mabon, 2022). As mentioned in section 5.4.1, the emphasis on quality infrastructure in realising these benefits is important to note. Blue-green infrastructure differentiates itself from general greenspace in its essence as a nature-based solution which is strategically planned to produce benefits for humans and the planet.

Managed realignment

In addition to ‘blue-green’ infrastructure we found some evidence that climate adaptation could also bring wellbeing benefits. Managed realignment is the restoration of wetlands through the deliberate moving inland of coastal defences (Liski et al, 2018). One study found that managed realignment could contribute to improved local population wellbeing due to the restoration of natural wetland habitat and the possibility for more activities in nature. It was also recognised that managed realignment could affect agricultural yield potential and therefore it may negatively impact farmers’ mental health due to risks to their livelihood and financial security (Liski et al, 2019).

Conclusions and implications for policy

Conclusion

This review has aimed to address four related research topics: the evidence of climate change risks to mental health and wellbeing, the nature of eco-distress in Scotland, evidence on interventions for mental health and wellbeing in a climate change context, and the evidence of co-benefits for mental health from climate action.

Direct and indirect risks to mental health

The findings of the review strongly support the view that climate change is increasing risks to mental health in Scotland and will continue to do so. Based on the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) and other country specific analysis, we found that the main relevant climate change-related hazards for Scotland are increased frequency and severity of flooding, higher temperatures, more frequent and longer droughts, and coastal changes due to sea-level rises. These hazards contribute to a range of negative mental health outcomes through the disruption of the conditions for good mental health in each domain of life. These disruptions operate through direct pathways, such as injury, trauma, and property loss because of extreme weather, and indirect pathways, such as impacts on livelihoods, social networks, and the increased risk displacement. The severity of mental health outcomes varies depending on the nature of exposure to the hazard and the circumstances of those facing them, but includes heightened risks of PTSD, suicide, depression, anxiety and general poor mental wellbeing.

There is strong evidence that the impacts of climate change on mental health are not distributed evenly but will affect some groups more than others. The three main factors that determine a group’s vulnerability to poor mental health outcomes are (1) their exposure to climate change-related hazards, (2) their wider vulnerabilities to poor mental health and (3) their access to resources and support to help them recover. Climate change amplifies existing, social, economic and demographic inequalities by disrupting the positive conditions for good mental health making groups vulnerable. In Scotland, groups at heightened risk include older people, children, women, ethnic minorities, low-income individuals, those with pre-existing health and mental health conditions, coastal and island communities, and workers in agriculture and fisheries.

Eco-distress

We also found that climate change may have an impact on mental health through eco-distress or eco-anxiety, a psycho-social response to the awareness of the threat to the environment. Our review of evidence from this emerging field of research shows that while there is currently no consensus on the definition, some common themes are clear. These include that eco-distress is future-orientated, is associated with feelings of uncertainty, unpredictability, uncontrollability and being overwhelmed, and it particularly affects young people and vulnerable groups. The emotions from eco-distress include anger, frustration, despair, guilt, shame and grief. Crucially, the literature is generally in agreement that eco-distress is not a pathological condition. Eco-distress is considered a rational and justified response that can also lead to pro-environmental behaviours and thoughts.

In Scotland, researchers have found that up to 70% of people express distress and worry about climate change and environmental issues. However, whether this translates to a high proportion of people meeting narrower definitions of eco-distress is very much dependent on the definition employed. Where validated scales of eco-anxiety are used, this figure appears to be lower.

While there remains disagreement on measurement of these emerging constructs the data clearly demonstrates that people, particularly young people and vulnerable groups, are worried about climate change. Whether some forms of worry should be considered damaging to a person’s wellbeing and what should be done about this, is less clear. We expect to see greater clarity in how researchers understand and measure the phenomenon of eco-distress as the field matures.

Mental health interventions

We reviewed the evidence on mental health interventions (programmes, policies and practices) aimed at supporting mental health in the context of climate change. The evidence we found in this area was mostly thin, with only 22 out of 60 identified interventions having been evaluated. Whilst our review indicated that there are many good practices available, it remains uncertain how relevant and helpful any intervention may be to addressing mental health risks related to climate change in Scotland.

Two types of intervention had relatively strong evidence of their effectiveness. First, we found nine evaluated interventions that focused on strengthening psychological resilience and building coping mechanisms. Activities such as group therapy were found to be useful both for bouncing back after experiencing traumatic climate events and for dealing with climate distress day-to-day without being overwhelmed. Second, we found four capacity building interventions with high-quality evaluations. Despite mostly being delivered in developing countries, capacity building programmes may be a useful response to climate events in Scotland, particularly through training on disaster preparation and mental health in the community.

We found some evidence that social connection, nature connection and taking climate action could also help prevent and respond to climate change risks to mental health, particularly for climate distress. Social connection interventions such as climate cafes reduced isolation and increased social capital, and also provided a space to validate climate emotions. Nature-based interventions have been found to reduce anxiety, stress and the severity of depression. Group activities for children and young people in nature were also found to improve emotional strength and develop social skills. Programmes that encouraged climate action improved levels of empowerment, which is particularly relevant for people experiencing climate distress.

Co-benefits of climate action

Climate action can lead to improved mental health and wellbeing through addressing some of the social determinants of mental health such as financial security and quality housing. Policymakers taking a cross-disciplinary approach to climate action and understanding the interconnected pathways of impact can achieve a win-win outcome for the climate and mental health.

Climate action can have co-benefits and unintended consequences. In fact, our analysis found that climate action related to housing provided an important opportunity to address several cross-cutting issues in Scotland, including mental health and wellbeing. Energy efficiency measures such as improved insulation can lead to warmer homes, which may increase thermal satisfaction, improve air quality and reduce fuel poverty. Social determinants of mental health including better financial security and improved general physical health play an important role in wellbeing co-benefits of housing climate action. However, with increasing temperatures and overheating risks posing a serious hazard in Scotland, it is important that building regulations support the installation and proper maintenance of appropriate ventilation and cooling adaptation measures when considering energy efficiency.

Social determinants of mental health were also present in our analysis of transport-related climate action. Prioritising active travel has potential wellbeing benefits through increased physical activity, reduced noise and air pollution, and improved community relationships. It is also important to take an equitable approach to transport policy to ensure vulnerable groups are able to take advantage of its benefits.

Climate action using nature-based solutions demonstrated similar opportunities for improving mental health and wellbeing through increased physical activity and a greater sense of community. However, nature-based solutions offer the most benefits for those who live in more affluent areas given that they have better access to green spaces and resources than deprived areas. Active measures to improve access for all groups within society to green spaces and natural environments can address this inequality.

Lessons for policy in Scotland

It is clear from our research that climate change represents a risk to the mental health and wellbeing of the Scottish population. In this section we discuss the main implication of our findings for policy.

Focus on risk areas

Mental health risks related to climate change derive from three main factors: people’s exposure to or awareness of climate related hazards; their existing vulnerabilities to poor mental health; and their access to resources and support. In general, each of these factors is potentially the site of policy intervention.

Exposure to hazards: A primary way to address climate change-related impact on mental health is by addressing climate change itself at a macro-level through climate action (adaptation and mitigation). By lessening the frequency and severity of hazards and managing the severity of their impacts on communities, infrastructure, and services, one can reduce its impacts on mental health outcomes. Put simply, actions will prevent disruptions to the conditions for positive mental health.
Existing vulnerabilities: As our research shows, climate change acts as an amplifier of existing vulnerabilities, which are the result of social, economic and demographic factors such as poverty, inequality and social exclusion. By working at a societal level to address the main causes of vulnerability to poor mental health outcomes, you reduce individual and groups vulnerabilities to the additional stressors caused by climate change. The effects of climate change are only one factor among many that impact population mental health. Taking steps to build a healthier and more resilient population will help protect against these impacts.
Access to resources and support: Finally, a key determinant of mental health outcomes is people’s access to timely and appropriate support to recover from emergencies, or navigate the disruption caused to lives and livelihoods by climate hazards. Improving the comprehensiveness and accessibility of support in relation to the main hazards (e.g., emergency services, welfare and social services, health and mental health support) is likely to reduce the negative impact of climate change on population mental health. While there is also a need for targeted and climate change-specific interventions, mainstream services have a strong role to play in protecting the population from negative outcomes.

Prioritise areas of urgency and vulnerability

There is a growing body of risk analysis that predicts the most common and impactful climate-related hazards in Scotland. These are flooding, increased temperatures and loss of coastal land. Risk analyses also note the growing risk offered by droughts, poor air quality, and biodiversity loss. There is also an increasing understanding of populations most at risk from these hazards, determined by their exposure to the hazards (i.e., geographical in the case of flood risk or sea-level rises) and social vulnerabilities in terms of social, economic, demographic factors, and living circumstances. With this knowledge, responses may include for example:

Integrating mental health awareness/response into emergency response, as more evidence shows the negative mental health consequences of involvement in emergencies, and which groups are most vulnerable to these impacts. Incorporating a mental health lens to emergency response may help reduce the negative mental health impacts. Targeted support for vulnerable people caught up in climate-related emergencies may reduce the prevalence, duration and severity of poor mental health outcomes. This should involve developing cross-sector plans for emergency response prior to emergencies that integrates mental health awareness and support, combined with early identification of mental health concerns and intervention in the event of a climate-related emergency.
Specific action about temperature for the most vulnerable: In addition to public health information provision aimed at increasing heat awareness and reducing the impact of temperature on population mental health, there may be value in identifying people at most risk of poor outcomes via their contact with services. This may require the provision of training and awareness raising for professionals. It is also important to ensure that settings with high proportions of vulnerable people such as healthcare and care settings are equipped to manage high temperatures.
Support for groups whose livelihoods are impacted by climate change and climate action: Our research identifies groups whose livelihoods may be affected by climate change in the long run, such as agricultural and fisheries workers, those who work in the tourism industry and groups who work in high-emissions industries such as oil and gas whose livelihoods may be affected by the planned transition to net zero. Policymakers should consider measures to mitigate negative mental health and wellbeing outcomes from these changes through, for example, the provision of alternative employment and training opportunities, welfare transfers and other forms of support.
Managed displacement: As the effects of climate change advance, it is increasingly likely that communities will be displaced. Our research found that the way this process is managed – whether it is planned and orderly, or unplanned and in response to an emergency – can have a major bearing on mental health and wellbeing. This suggests the importance of long-term planning to identify the most vulnerable communities to work with to manage future displacement.

Reverse disempowerment though building connection and prompting action

A key challenge for policy is to understand climate emotions not only as problems but also as levers and solutions. Emotions are often what lead people to act: “ecological anxiety and grief, although uncomfortable, are in fact the crucible through which humanity must pass to harness the energy and conviction needed for the lifesaving changes now required.” (Cunsolo et al, 2020). In short, policy can use care and emotion as assets.

While eco-anxiety affects people from all demographics, young people are particularly exposed to it and it is important that they are supported to help mitigate this. Early evidence suggests that eco-anxiety is lessened where people are empowered to act in their lives, communities and political systems.

One of the most effective areas for action is to identify affected groups and invest in interventions that empower participants and give agency. In practice, direct climate action and preventing/addressing mental health risks are often two sides of the same coin. Addressing helplessness supports a sense of agency and can often trigger people and groups into action. The way people think and feel about climate change influences climate action, and climate action in turn changes emotions related to the environment (Lawrance et al, 2022). This implies that increasing climate agency and action has the potential to reduce the impact of climate distress on mental health and wellbeing, while also improving the climate itself (Lawrance et al, 2022).

Take visible actions

As described above, a key pillar of any response to climate change-related mental health issues is robust, ambitious climate action on mitigation and adaptation. In order to address people’s rational and legitimate anxieties about the future, they need to feel that proportionate action is being taken to address the threats and local, national and supra-national levels. Our review shows that eco-anxiety is linked to the perception of inaction on climate change by government and other actors. While this is a key condition to manage the mental consequences of climate change, action should be coupled with clear and transparent communication.

Public communication about climate change and climate action

The final area found for intervening in the mental health risks of climate change was public communication. Messaging on climate change needs to be viewed through the lens of building resilience and agency or it may increase levels of climate dread and denialism (Hathaway, 2017). For many experiencing eco-distress, the severity of the ecological crisis is such that it is no longer certain that future generations will arrive and thrive. This creates disorientation. Attempts to shock people with facts or using fear, guilt, or shame to motivate ecological action produce ‘defensive rigidity’ (Hathaway, 2017).

For many who read shocking news on the climate, full awareness of the crisis may be painful. Psychic distress can be reduced by ‘‘turning down the volume’’ instead of acting (Sewall, 1995). Danger signals, which should demand attention and lead to collective action, instead “make us want to pull down the blinds and busy ourselves with other things” (Macy and Brown, 1998). From a mental health standpoint, communication should seek to give agency to those in distress through engaging empathy, cultivating hope and focusing on local level actions rather than provoking guilt.

Select areas for action with existing resources in mind

The scale of climate worry and the necessity for climate action mean that at national, regional and local levels, collaborative efforts should be developed to address the mental health implications of climate change through concrete actions by all key agencies including health and mental health services, and local authorities (Hayes et al, 2018). At present, global studies indicate mental health resources available to intervene specifically in mental health issues arising from climate change are inadequate, insufficient and inequitably distributed (Hayes et al, 2018; Lawrance et al, 2022); As temperatures and climate events increase, investment in effective interventions and climate actions, such as in transport and housing, will be necessary to improve wellbeing of residents in Scotland to cultivate hope and prompt individual and collective action. However, since public finances in Scotland and elsewhere are tight, it is important to build upon existing resources and systems and avoid building a parallel suite of actions:

The authors recognise that addressing inequalities of access and care are already a priority in the long-term mental health strategy (Mental Health and Wellbeing Strategy) and the latest delivery plan (2023-2025), and recommend that climate change and its impacts be considered in their implementation.
We found many areas of intervention and adaptation that are either already delivered in Scotland or similar actions are taking place. These include nature-based solutions, social connection interventions and nature connection interventions.

Support monitoring of prevalence and evaluation of interventions and adaptations

Evidence on the prevalence and distribution of mental health impacts of climate change in Scotland is inconsistent with substantial gaps. We suggest more systematic monitoring of key indicators to best target support towards the communities with the greatest need. For example, consider including eco-distress as an item on an existing or new longitudinal survey of the population in Scotland.

It is notable that many interventions and adaptations were delivered with very little attention to measuring the mental health impact on participants. This has led to a limited evidence base on what works to address the mental health and wellbeing impact of climate change, despite many promising and worthy actions in this area. As a result, the scope to have fully evidence-informed confident policy decisions for addressing mental health risks in this area or to see which outcomes are produced (and can be reproduced) for vulnerable groups in Scotland is also limited.

The evidence base could be improved by the adoption of a more holistic vision of climate action, taking a system-wide view to include physical health and mental health not as co-benefits but primary benefits. Further, when commissioning infrastructure, adaptations or interventions, we recommend the inclusion of funding for monitoring and evaluation or access to evaluation resources that have at least some focus on the mental health impact on participants. Given the growing incidence of climate events and climate distress, building a knowledge base now will help policymakers make informed decisions to address the wellbeing impact of climate change in Scotland.

Appendix A: Methodology for systematic evidence review

Process overview

The systematic evidence review was conducted in three sequential stages: (1) scoping and collation and assessment of longlist; (2) collation and assessment of shortlist; and (3) synthesis and reporting. This document provides an overview of these stages and the procedures that were applied.

Figure 2 Workflow for the evidence review

Our approach to this review was designed to produce strongly evidenced answers to four research questions which are collectively targeted at understanding the relationship between climate change and mental health, and how interventions may affect this relationship.

These research questions can be clustered according to whether they relate primarily to population studies or interventions.

Population study based and conceptual questions:

What is the evidence of climate related risks and impacts to mental health and wellbeing in Scotland, and how these might differentially affect population groups?
How is ‘eco-distress’ (including ‘eco-anxiety’) currently defined, what is the current/potential prevalence in Scotland and how might this differentially affect population groups?

In general, these questions were answered by reviewing general population studies (for instance, research addressing how people feel because of climate change) or conceptual studies (for instance, defining relevant concepts or identifying types of causal relationship).

Intervention based questions:

What is the evidence on effective prevention and early intervention, and on responding to mental health and wellbeing risks and impacts in a climate change context in Scotland?
What is the evidence of co-benefits and risks, or unintended consequences, for mental health and wellbeing from climate action (both mitigation and adaptation) relevant in a Scottish context?

These questions were mainly addressed through analysis of intervention studies (for instance, studies of how people feel following climate change interventions or after a climate adaptation has been delivered).

Given the potential breadth of these questions and the timeline in which to answer them, the study included four interviews with experts who provided an informed overview of the topic areas, including working definitions of key terms, Scotland-specific insights to the topics, and key studies and interventions. With the help of the project steering group and our own searches we identified individuals with expertise in either/ both academic research in relevant fields to the research questions (i.e., mental health and climate change), and relevant Scottish Government policy and practice.

Stage 1: Collating and assessment of a ‘long list’ of items

The first stage in the evidence review entailed searching and collating relevant material using search engines and identifying other sources to create a longlist of potentially relevant documents. This involved searching, collating, and defining items for review and entering these into an extraction spreadsheet. The items were drawn from two sources:

Items results from search engine searches to identify materials.
Items identified through ‘snowballing’ (recommendations from the Core Team; external experts; other experts; references from other documents)

The documents selected were then assessed and filtered to produce a shortlist. Many of the documents on the longlist were not directly relevant to answer the research questions, therefore were excluded from the shortlist. However, many covered topics tangentially related to mental health and climate change, such as climate migration and job losses, and so were retained in the longlist, shared, and referred to in reporting where relevant to the broader topic or when indicating areas for further research .

Data sources

The searches were performed on a variety of platforms to ensure that two types of sources were identified: i) ‘official’ published literature, e.g., books; peer reviewed journal articles; formal reports and ii) ‘grey’ literature, e.g. website material; intervention descriptions; statistics; company data; government policies and actions. Searching was confined to the period 2015-present unless key ‘landmark’ texts (that have very high levels of citations within the field or are considered to provide key theoretical developments to the field such as coining key terms) and surveys were identified by stakeholders or in other publications that had been published earlier. This search concentrated on the peer reviewed ‘academic’ and practice literature, mapping concepts, theories, policies, and practices with regard to climate change and mental health.

The sources for materials are set out below.

Academic search engines (semanticscholar.org and Google Scholar)
Generic search engines for grey literature (Google)
Government and other public body websites e.g. https://www.gov.scot/publications/ ; http://www.healthscotland.scot/publications
References of relevant documents, documents referred to by experts

Search terms

The search terms were structured to answer the four key research questions we needed to cover. This initial list was subject to iteration depending on the search results.

Table 3 Search Terms

Identification of studies		Identification of interventions
Risks	Eco-distress	Prevention/ intervention	Climate action
Wellbeing+risk+“climate chang*”	Eco-anxiet+defin	“Mental health”+”climate chang*”	Citizen+“climate action”
“Mental health”+risk+”climate chang*”	“Ecological grief”	“Wellbeing”+“climate chang*”	“Green prescription”
Extent+eco-distress	“Environmental psych*”	Eco-anxiety+treat*	“Climate mitigat*”+wellbeing
Extent+eco-anxiety	“Conservation psych*”	Eco-distress+treat*	“Climate adapt*”+wellbeing
Direct+eco-distress	“Solastalgia”	Eco-distress+“early interv*”	“Public climate action”+wellbeing
Indirect+eco-distress	“Determinants of health”+”climate change”	Eco-distress+“prevent*”	“Just transition”+”Mental health”
Vicarious+eco-distress	Groups+eco-distress	All above +Scotland	“Just transition”+Wellbeing
Flooding+”mental health”	Vulnerable+eco-distress		All above +Scotland
Snow+disruption+”mental health”	All above +Scotland
Heatwaves+”mental health”
All above +Scotland

Entering items in extraction spreadsheet

Each item identified was logged in an excel spreadsheet, one per row, using the following descriptors (column headings):

Item number – for researcher reference
Title – of book; article etc.
Type – book, article, report etc.
Source – where obtained from
Authors
Date – date published
URL – if exists (data consulted)
Focus – Short description of which research question(s) it addresses or the focus of the study
Summary – A brief one- or two-line summary description of the item, e.g. using an ‘abstract’ of a report or article
Who – the researcher who inputted the item.

Table 4 Snapshot of longlist extraction template: basic information

Stage 2: collation and assessment of a ‘short list’ of items

Inclusion/exclusion criteria

The searching process generated 238 items that were potentially of value. Due to time constraints, only items that were likely to score ‘1’ on domain relevance were included on the longlist. These items had to be separated into the four research areas and assessed for their rigour, relevance and value to the study. This second stage therefore entailed reviewing the material collected though stage 1 in order to select a shortlist of the most relevant items. The checklist below provided a simple way for the research team to rank relevance and consists of applying seven assessment criteria to each item. Table 4 presents the checklist the research team used which was completed by scoring each of the boxes for which the item meets the criteria to arrive at a total ‘score’. In order for the shortlist to be relevant to Scotland and include systematic reviews, the two relevant criteria were given double weighting.

Table 5 Inclusion-Exclusion criteria for Data Audit

Criteria	Question	Tick box
1.Domain relevance	Does the item directly cover climate change AND mental health/wellbeing?	o
2. Recency	Is the item up to date (published after 2015)?	o
3. Research relevance	Does the evidence concern Scotland? (score 2 for Scotland, 1 for UK) Does this item address vulnerable/target groups? Does this item address known gaps in our knowledge? Is this item directly relevant to answering a research question? Does this item include high quality primary evidence?^[7] Is this item a systematic or scoping review which reviews several studies in one item? (score 2 if so)	o o o o o o
SCORE		0-10

The shortlist selection used the checklist as follows:

If Criterion 1 not ticked (Domain relevance) then the item was discarded. This includes items relating to potentially indirect effects of climate change, such as the wellbeing impact of losing a job, the impact of migration, that did not explicitly refer to climate change as a cause.
Make judgement on selection of the remaining items. Firstly, look at the total score. The higher the score, the stronger the case for selecting a particular item for subsequent analysis. Secondly, look at the ‘relevance’ scores for the items, particularly on whether the study concerned Scotland. The higher the relevance scores the stronger the case for selecting a particular item for subsequent analysis. Finally, check the summaries for the items from the extraction sheet and assess the extent to which they are useful for the study.

Table 6 Snapshot of shortlist extraction template: Inclusion rating

Many items fulfilled several criteria. All items were relevant to at least one research question and only 13 percent were not published since 2015. Close to half (45 percent) of items were scoping or systematic reviews. Fourteen percent directly concerned Scotland since search terms specifying ‘Scotland’ were included in all searches.

Table 7 Item counts for the shortlisting criteria

Criteria	Number of items fulfilling criteria	Proportion of items which fulfilled criteria
Relevant domain	238	100 percent
Recent	206	87 percent
Concerns Scotland	34	14 percent
Addresses vulnerable/ target groups	120	50 percent
Addresses gap in knowledge	163	68 percent
Direct relevance to a research question	127	53 percent
Includes high quality primary evidence	101	42 percent
Systematic or scoping review	107	45 percent

Table 7 shows that nearly 75 percent of items scored five or above and under 5 percent scored 8 or above. As over 100 items scored between 6 and 10, these high scoring items were the focus of analysis in the analysis and synthesis stage. This scoring system was not infallible, however, and some items were selected from the longlist with lower scores where appropriate. In addition, other items not in the longlist were also added to the analysis where gaps in the literature were found during the analysis stage.

Table 8 Scores of items in the longlist

Score	Item count	Proportion of items
10	1	0.4 percent
9	2	0.8 percent
8	7	3.0 percent
7	45	19.0 percent
6	54	22.8 percent
5	68	28.7 percent
4	31	13.1 percent
3	17	7.2 percent
2	12	5.1 percent
1	1	0.4 percent

Stage 3: Analysing selected items

Using the results of the shortlisting process, we analysed each item selected in the shortlist and summarised the results of the analysis. The approach taken to answering the research questions differed depending on the nature of the research question.

Analysis for research questions 1 and 2

Content analysis of the material related to research questions 1^[8] and 2^[9] followed the ‘inspection’ method. This entails scanning each item of material manually, creating a classification framework and coding constructs to map the occurrence of particular items, and the relationships between them for each research question. This classification frame and set of constructs were then modified and added to as the analysis develops.

The framework is divided into three sections.

Section 1 provides details on the item (name; type of material; source; summary of the content). This was imported from the extraction template.

Section 2 provides a framework for analysing the item. The initial classification framework is a ‘first baseline’ for the content analysis. Each item was analysed across three dimensions which underwent iteration depending on the results of the exercise:

A Thematic dimension (column 1), reflecting the key themes and research objectives of the study, using the language of the research questions. For example, determinants of health; unintended effects; prevention.
Each theme is broken down into a number of sub-themes – ‘constructs’ – that should be searched for within each item being analysed. These were initially developed following the shortlisting process and undergo further iteration throughout the analysis. For example, exacerbation of health conditions, prevalence of conditions, community-based interventions etc.
Codes and examples or descriptors of how each construct is treated (described) in the material being analysed should be entered into Column 3. This could include direct quotations from the text/material to help illustrate the study research questions. For example, a paragraph of text on the wellbeing effects of being flooded.

In Section 3 additional themes, constructs, and descriptors were added as the analysis developed.

We highlighted evidence particularly relevant to Scotland, particularly research examining Scottish or UK populations; relating to common climate change hazards in Scotland (e.g., flooding); or from similar climatic, geographical, or social/governmental contexts.

A 2021 scoping review identified 120 original research studies that examined mental health and climate change. The earliest study identified was published in 2007 with the review finding an increasing trend in the number of studies on this topic each year up to the present (Charlson et al, 2021). As the number of original research studies has increased, there has been a growing number of literature and evidence reviews that summarise the overall state of the field now (Lawrance et al, 2022; Charlson et al, 2021; Cianconi, Betro, and Janiri, 2020; Hayes et al, 2018; Manning and Clayton, 2018). For this reason, we took the decision to focus our analysis on the most recent and highly cited literature and evidence reviews and those with the most robust review methodologies, for this we following adapted Rapid Evidence Assessment protocols from DfID (2015), research quality assessment for each shortlisted study was related to four criteria: conceptual framing, methodological transparency, validity, and relevance. We then supplemented review findings with reference to original studies or additional evidence where useful.

Analysis for research question 3

For answering research question 3^[10] the analytical process initially paid close attention to the core dimensions of Realist Synthesis:

Context (where the studies/interventions were conducted, what part context played in the results for example via geography specific effects)
Mechanisms that underpinned the effects of interventions (for instance, experiencing a greater sense of agency through direct environmental work)
Outcomes (which aspects of mental health, other determinants of health are covered)

Individual interventions were identified from the shortlist for research question 3. Systematic reviews and other scoping reviews were then mapped in terms of how they categorised relevant interventions. Areas of overlap were identified and some intervention types were insufficient data were not included in the analysis. This resulted in eight types of intervention being included in the review: Capacity building, Climate justice, Communication, Nature connection, Participation, Practitioner development, Resilience and coping, and Social Connection.

Interventions were then input into a spreadsheet with the following criteria using descriptive text:

Name
Level of action
Location
Study design
Climate stressor
Target population
Intervention details
Inclusion of co-design
Expected mental health outcome (measure)
Evaluation results

From this, further analysis was conducted on the qualitative data to make a simpler set of codes from the descriptive data. These topics are listed below along with the input options [in square brackets]:

Location code [Developed country, Global South, UK or Scotland]
Evidence effectiveness cluster [A, B or C – see below for more details]
Climate distress [Yes or no]
Primary subgroup [Any, Indigenous, Low income, Minorities, Poor mental health, Potential activists, Practitioners, Rural, Teachers, Vulnerable, or Youth]
Primary outcome [Relief from disorders, Reduce distress, Improved wellbeing, Empowerment, Coping self-efficacy, Social capital, Validate emotions, or Optimism]
Secondary outcome [same list as primary outcomes]
Primary mechanism [Capacity building, Climate justice, Communication, Nature connection, Participation, Practitioner development, Resilience and coping, and Social connection]
Secondary mechanism [same list as primary mechanism]

The framework used for assessment of quality of evidence for the interventions is outlined below.

Evidence of Effectiveness Assessment for Interventions

To ensure the appraisal process measures strength of evidence, the research team assessed each identified initiative using a bespoke Standards of Evidence framework we developed for the Medici project called the Evidence Effectiveness Framework. The framework has tight criteria and clusters initiatives into three categories: Cluster A: Innovative Interventions, Cluster B: Effective Interventions, and Cluster C: Replicable Interventions. These clusters and the inclusion criteria are outlined below.

Cluster A: Innovative Interventions

Cluster A has a low threshold for inclusion as it is for new, innovative interventions which are prepared for further roll out. This is where many interventions were assigned, since interventions related to eco-distress are likely to be relatively new.

We do not expect new interventions to have been subject to rigorous evaluations. However, a promising intervention should be as prepared as possible through research, specification of the intervention logic, piloting and plans for evaluation.

This cluster includes interventions which have:

Recently begun delivery
Have defined and designed their intervention with care
Are likely to have a positive impact if delivered at scale

Assessment questions

Has any research been conducted on this intervention type by the originating organisation?
Yes / no
Has their intervention been piloted by the originating organisation?
Yes / no
Is there evidence that the intervention has a defined theory or a Theory of Change?
Yes / no
Is there an evidence plan to determine whether the intervention makes a difference?
Yes / no
When was the intervention first delivered?
Year/month
To what extent can this intervention be considered to be innovative?
Likert scale 1-5 from not innovative at all to highly innovative

Threshold for inclusion in Cluster A

Projects must achieve the following to be included in Cluster A:

Questions 1, 2, 3 & 4 must be ‘yes’ (or don’t know) AND
Question 5 must be under 5 years ago
Question 6 must be a ‘3’ or higher.

Cluster B: Effective interventions

Cluster B relates to whether the intervention has been shown a positive effect on its target group. This implies a specific evaluation of the project has been implemented, that the evaluation showed a positive effect on relevant outcomes, and that the data which shows this positive effect has been generated using an appropriate methodology.

The questions on methodological fit assume that the intervention logic or theory has been articulated and the methodology is transparent. The question can be answered with respect to which outcomes were measured, how they were measured, and whether (quasi-) experimental methods would be logistically/ethically inappropriate.

This cluster included interventions which have:

Received one or more evaluation with positive outcomes
Been evaluated using appropriate methods that support confident conclusions
Include a well-defined set of outcomes which fits their change model.

Assessment questions

Through the data collected and analysed we have seen there is change.
Yes / no
Is / are the outcome evaluation(s) based on an appropriate / well-articulated and justified evaluation approach that is commensurate with the intervention? This could be either “qual” and/or “quant”.
Yes / no
How well has the study has been implemented / methodological issues (like sample sizes) been considered to allow rigorous conclusions to be drawn?
Likert scale of 1 – 5

Threshold for inclusion in Cluster B

An intervention was included in Cluster B if it:

Answers ‘yes’ to question 1 and 2 AND
Scores 3 out of 5 or above for question 3.

Cluster C: Replicable interventions

This is the final cluster in the evidence of effectiveness rating system. It is for interventions that already have a strong evidence base behind them that has been generated by a number of evaluations which may also have been implemented in different locations or by applying the intervention with different target groups.

This cluster is differentiated from Cluster B as the evaluations should provide a higher degree of confidence that the intervention has caused or contributed towards the change observed. The evidence provided may be qualitative or quantitative and ideally, combine the two. The chosen methods need to be embedded in, and appropriate to, a well justified evaluation approach and implemented to provide the best data possible.

This cluster included interventions which have:

Received more than one evaluation with positive outcomes (without replication but with increasing rigour)
Been replicated and evaluated in the replication destination
Both of the above.

We have included flexibility as to whether the cluster requires interventions to have been replicated as we feel that there is otherwise too great a distance between the requirements for cluster B and C.

Assessment questions

Does the project have a Theory of Change and if so, does this theory of change include evidence based / realistic outcomes that have been shown to materialise (for the target group / beneficiaries)?
Yes / no
Are the outcome evaluations based on an appropriate / well-articulated and justified evaluation approach that is commensurate with the intervention? This could be either “qual” and/or “quant”.
Yes / no
How well have the studies been implemented / methodological issues (like sample sizes) been considered to allow rigorous conclusions to be drawn?
Likert scale of 1 – 5
Has more than one evaluation of this intervention been conducted by an independent evaluator? These evaluations could be in one location or multiple locations.
Yes / no

Threshold for inclusion

Projects must achieve the following to be included in Cluster C:

Questions 1, 2 & 4 must be ‘yes’ AND
Question 3 must be a ‘3’ or higher.

The analysis resulted in 60 interventions being categorised

Table 9 Count of evidence effectiveness categorisation

Evidence Effectiveness Cluster	Count of interventions	Proportion of interventions
A – Innovative interventions	35	61 percent
B – Effective interventions	14	25 percent
C – Replicable Interventions	8	14 percent

The full list of interventions can be found in Appendix D.

Analysis for research question 4

As stated in Chapter 6, analysis of research question 4^[11] on the co-benefits of climate adaptation and mitigation largely followed the same process as the three sections outlined for research questions 1 and 2: identifying themes, sub-themes and key extracts from studies, then using this as a basis for further analysis. This resulted in 22 high quality sources being reviewed which related to the co-benefits and risks of climate action for mental health and wellbeing.

Appendix B: Causal pathways between climate change and mental health

Figure Illustrates Lawrance et al (2022)’s idea of a continuum of casual pathways between climate change and mental health (from direct to indirect), starting with the main hazards at the top of the diagram leading through to the main mental health outcomes at the bottom via many possible casual pathways.

Appendix C: Shortlisted items from the Realist Synthesis Review

Item number	Reference	Summary	Score	RQ1	RQ2	RQ3
191	Douglas, M. J., Teuton, J., Macdonald, A., Whyte, B., & Davis, A. L. (2023). Road space reallocation in Scotland: A health impact assessment. Journal of Transport & Health, 30, 101625.	We conducted a health impact assessment to identify and assess the potential impacts of road space reallocation on health and health inequalities in Scotland. This involved a facilitated scoping workshop to identify potential impacts, collation of routine data, interviews with 13 key informants and a rapid review of research literature.	10			x
152	Fazey, I., Carmen, E., Rao-Williams, J., Hodgson, A., Fraser, J., Cox, L., Scott, D., Tabor, P., Robeson, D., Searle, B., Lyon, C., Kenter, J. O., & Murray, B. (2017). Community Resilience to Climate Change: Outcomes of the Scottish Borders Climate Resilient Communities Project. University of Dundee	This report presents findings from an action research project conducted in the Scottish Borders between May 2015 and September 2016. The project aimed to: 1) Support a local process of community change through building partnerships, learning and capacity building; and 2) Understand the critical factors involved in facilitating the development of community resilience to climate change to draw out key levers for change nationally.	9	x		x
266	Curl, A., & Kearns, A. (2017). Housing improvements, fuel payment difficulties and mental health in deprived communities. International Journal of Housing Policy, 17(3), 417–443. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616718.2016.1248526	This paper examines the effect of warmth interventions on self-reported difficulties affording fuel bills and mental health, using a longitudinal sample in Glasgow, UK	9			x
149	Houston, D., Werritty, A., Ball, T., & Black, A. (2021). Environmental vulnerability and resilience: Social differentiation in short‐and long‐term flood impacts. Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, 46(1), 102-119.	Survey of representative samples (n = 593) of households up to 12 years after they were flooded, one of the first to provide detailed analysis of social differentiation in long-term flood impacts. Social differentiation in flood impacts is relatively small soon after a flood, but widens over time, with socially disadvantaged groups displaying less recovery.	8	x	x
156	Tieges, Z., McGregor, D., Georgiou, M., Smith, N., Saunders, J., Millar, R., … & Chastin, S. (2020). The impact of regeneration and climate adaptations of urban green–blue assets on all-cause mortality: a 17-year longitudinal study. International journal of environmental research and public health, 17(12), 4577.	The present observational study used a unique 17-year longitudinal natural experiment of canal regeneration from complete closure and dereliction in North Glasgow in Scotland, U.K. to explore the impact of green and blue canal assets on all-cause mortality as a widely used indicator of general health and health inequalities.	8			x
162	Salvador Costa, M. J., Leitão, A., Silva, R., Monteiro, V., & Melo, P. (2022). Climate change prevention through community actions and empowerment: a scoping review. International journal of environmental research and public health, 19(22), 14645.	As society tries to tackle climate change around the globe, communities need to reduce its impact on human health. The purpose of this review is to identify key stakeholders involved in mitigating and adapting to climate change, as well as the type and characteristics of community empowerment actions implemented so far to address the problem.	8	x
197	Jill Muirie (2017) Active travel in Glasgow: what we’ve learned so far. Report for the Glasgow Centre for Population Health	This report follows the synthesis of ten years of GCPH evidence published in October 2014 which emphasised, in line with international evidence, the importance of economic, environmental and social factors on health.	8			x
227	Paavola, J. (2017). Health impacts of climate change and health and social inequalities in the UK. Environmental Health, 16, 61-68.	This article examines how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, and what the implications are for climate change adaptation and health care provision. Exposure to heat and cold, air pollution, pollen, food safety risks, disruptions to access to and functioning of health services and facilities, emerging infections and flooding are examined as the key impacts of climate change influencing health outcomes. Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are found to be the key (but not only) factors that make people vulnerable and to experience more adverse health outcomes related to climate change impacts.	8	x
231	Dunnell, K., Farager, R., Haberman, S., Leon, D., Price, D. & Sloman, D. (2022). The current and future effects of climate change on health in the UK. Longevity Science Panel.	UK focus on health effects of Climate Change	7.5	x	x
2	Hayes, K., Blashki, G., Wiseman, J., Burke, S., & Reifels, L. (2018). Climate change and mental health: risks, impacts and priority actions. International journal of mental health systems, 12, 1-12.	This article provides an overview of the current and projected climate change risks and impacts to mental health and provides recommendations for priority actions to address the mental health consequences of climate change.	7	x	x
3	Hayes, K., Berry, P. and Ebi, K.L., 2019. Factors influencing the mental health consequences of climate change in Canada. International journal of environmental research and public health, 16(9), p.1583.	A scoping review of literature published during 2000–2017 explored risks, impacts, and vulnerabilities related to climate change and mental health.	7	x	x
5	Charlson, F., Ali, S., Benmarhnia, T., Pearl, M., Massazza, A., Augustinavicius, J., & Scott, J. G. (2021). Climate change and mental health: a scoping review. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(9), 4486.	This scoping review aims to assess the available literature related to climate change and mental health across the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) five global research priorities for protecting human health from climate change.	7	x	x
24	World Health Organization. (2021). COP26 special report on climate change and health: the health argument for climate action.	The 10 recommendations in the COP26 Special Report on Climate Change and Health propose a set of priority actions from the global health community to governments and policy makers. The recommendations were developed in consultation with over 150 organizations and 400 experts and health professionals.	7	x
26	Berry, H. L., Waite, T. D., Dear, K. B., Capon, A. G., & Murray, V. (2018). The case for systems thinking about climate change and mental health. Nature climate change, 8(4), 282-290.	The authors outline current thinking about climate change and mental health, and discuss crucial limitations in modern epidemiology for examining this issue. A systems approach, complemented by a new style of research thinking and leadership, can help align the needs of this emerging field with existing and research policy agendas.	7	x	x
28	Hickman, C., Marks, E., Pihkala, P., Clayton, S., Lewandowski, R. E., Mayall, E. E., … & Van Susteren, L. (2021). Climate anxiety in children and young people and their beliefs about government responses to climate change: a global survey. The Lancet Planetary Health, 5(12), e863-e873.	We surveyed 10 000 children and young people (aged 16–25 years) in ten countries (Australia, Brazil, Finland, France, India, Nigeria, Philippines, Portugal, the UK, and the USA; 1000 participants per country).Data were collected on participants’ thoughts and feelings about climate change, and government responses to climate change.	7	x	x
47	Ma, T., Moore, J., & Cleary, A. (2022). Climate change impacts on the mental health and wellbeing of young people: A scoping review of risk and protective factors. Social Science & Medicine, 301, 114888.	The article reviews evidence on the scope and nature of the climate change challenge; reviews how these impacts manifest themselves in insecurity at diverse scales; and examines evidence on the political economy of adaptation responses to these impacts.	7	x
56	Dooley, L., Sheats, J., Hamilton, O., Chapman, D., & Karlin, B. (2021). Climate change and youth mental health: Psychological impacts, resilience resources, and future directions. Los Angeles, CA: See Change Institute.	this report: (1) synthesizes a decade of research on climate and mental health with a focus on youth and BIPOC, (2) shares a framework of the key components of climate resilience / anxiety interventions, and (3) highlights promising approaches in schools, families, communities, and clinical settings for climate anxiety support. synthesized over a decade of research and theory on climate change and mental health, with a focus on youth and BIPOC groups.	7		x
84	Elaine C Flores, Laura J Brown, Ritsuko Kakuma, Julian Eaton and Alan D Dangour. Mental health and wellbeing outcomes of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a systematic review 2023 IOP Publishing Ltd Environmental Research Letters, Volume 19, Number 1	We included controlled, quasi-experimental, pilot, and focussed case studies reporting mental health or wellbeing outcomes assessments of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.	7			x
101	Kirby, M., & Scott,. AJ. (2023). Green Blue Infrastructure Impacts on Health and Wellbeing; A Rapid Evidence Assessment: CAPE, University College London.	This rapid evidence assessment assesses current knowledge in the academic literature concerning the impacts of Green Blue Infrastructure on people’s health and wellbeing in the UK, and the implications therein for policy and practice and its use in Parliamentary work.	7			x
102	Grey, C.N.B., Jiang, S., Nascimento, C. et al. The short-term health and psychosocial impacts of domestic energy efficiency investments in low-income areas: a controlled before and after study. BMC Public Health 17, 140 (2017).	This study examined the relationship between energy efficiency investments to homes in low-income areas and mental and physical health of residents, as well as a number of psychosocial outcomes likely to be part of the complex relationship between energy efficiency measures and health outcomes.	7			x
110	Sanna Markkanen & Annela Anger-Kraavi (2019) Social impacts of climate change mitigation policies and their implications for inequality, Climate Policy, 19:7, 827-844,	This paper synthesizes evidence from the existing literature on social co-impacts of climate change mitigation policy and their implications for inequality.	7			x
113	Miller ME, Nwosu CO, Nyamwanza AM, Jacobs PT. Assessing Psychosocial Health Impacts of Climate Adaptation: A Critical Review. NEW SOLUTIONS: A Journal of Environmental and Occupational Health Policy. 2023;33(1):37-50.	This critical review seeks to contribute towards closing this gap through a synthesis of current literature on the psychosocial health outcomes of climate adaptation actions.	7	x		x
121	Hayward, G., & Ayeb-Karlsson, S. (2021). ‘Seeing with Empty Eyes’: a systems approach to understand climate change and mental health in Bangladesh. Climatic Change, 165(1), 29.	hree databases were searched for English primary qualitative studies published between 2000 and 2020. Out of 1202 publications, 40 met the inclusion criteria. This systematic review applies a systems approach to further understand Bangladesh’s ‘climate-wellbeing’ network. The literature indicates diverse factors linking environmental stress and mental ill-health including four key themes: (1) post-hazard mental health risks, (2) human (im)mobility, (3) social tension and conflict, and (4) livelihood loss and economic hardship. This systems analysis also revealed that people’s mental wellbeing is strongly mediated by socio-economic status and gender.	7	x
134	Vergunst, F., & Berry, H. L. (2022). Climate change and children’s mental health: a developmental perspective. Clinical Psychological Science, 10(4), 767-785.	Drawing on a developmental life-course perspective, we show that climate-change-related threats can additively, interactively, and cumulatively increase psychopathology risk from conception onward; that these effects are already occurring; and that they constitute an important threat to healthy human development worldwide.	7	x	x
138	Thoma, M. V., Rohleder, N., & Rohner, S. L. (2021). Clinical ecopsychology: the mental health impacts and underlying pathways of the climate and environmental crisis. Frontiers in psychiatry, 12, 675936.	This synergy of literature provides a current summary of the adverse mental health impacts of the climate and environmental crisis from the perspective of Clinical Psychology. Furthermore, it presents potential underlying processes, including biological, emotional, cognitive, behavioral, and social pathways.	7	x	x
146	Cianconi, P., Hanife, B., Grillo, F., Lesmana, C. B. J., & Janiri, L. (2023). Eco-emotions and Psychoterratic syndromes: reshaping mental health assessment under climate change. The Yale Journal of Biology and Medicine, 96(2), 211.	Paper focusses on what it describes as emergent ‘eco-emotions’ and ‘psychoterratic syndromes’, i.e. psychological categories resultant from the existential (mortal/cultural/societal/personal) threat posed by climate/ecological crises. Owing to this clinical angle, it further distinguishes between phsychological distress resulting in ‘positive outcomes’ (i.e. pro-environmental behaviours/actions) and those which result in psychotherapy – a means of stressing that eco-anxiety should not be pathologised, while acknowledging that eco-anxiety can result in outcomes that require theraputic interventions that have been considered in light of eco-anxiety as a distinct category.	7	x	x
148	Brophy, H., Olson, J., & Paul, P. (2023). Eco‐anxiety in youth: An integrative literature review. International journal of mental health nursing, 32(3), 633-661.	This literature review aimed to summarize the relevant works on eco-anxiety in young people, provide a critique of the literature, identify gaps, and discuss the relevance to nursing practice.	7	x	x
150	Werritty, A., Houston, D., Ball, T., Tavendale, A., & Black, A. (2007). Exploring the social impacts of flood risk and flooding in Scotland.	This report presents the findings of a social research project, the aim of which was to assess the range of impacts that experience of recent flooding in Scotland has had on people, their attitudes and behaviours; and to establish “what works” with particular popluation groups and locations in relation to flood prevention campaigns and flood warning/dissemination systems.	7		x
154	Liski, A.H., Ambros, P., Metzger, M.J. et al. Governance and stakeholder perspectives of managed re-alignment: adapting to sea level rise in the Inner Forth estuary, Scotland. Reg Environ Change 19, 2231–2243 (2019).	We interviewed 16 local organisations, landowners and farmers and held workshops with 109 citizens living the Inner Forth estuary in eastern Scotland, to examine how managed realignment is supported by stakeholder attitudes and their engagement.	7			x
157	Lawrance, E. L., Jennings, N., Kioupi, V., Thompson, R., Diffey, J., & Vercammen, A. (2022). Psychological responses, mental health, and sense of agency for the dual challenges of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic in young people in the UK: an online survey study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(9), e726-e738.	The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are affecting the wellbeing of UK young people in distinct ways, with implications for health service, policy, and research responses. There is a need for mental health practitioners, policy makers, and other societal actors to account for the complex relationship between climate agency, distress, and mental wellbeing in young people.	7	x	x
161	Majekodunmi, M., Emmanuel, R., & Jafry, T. (2020). A spatial exploration of deprivation and green infrastructure ecosystem services within Glasgow city. Urban Forestry & Urban Greening, 52, 126698.	We map potential of ecosystem services within urban areas to provide cooling and increase resilience to surface flooding and highlight the geographical mismatch between social deprivation and the preponderance of these ecosystem services. We explore the implications for a ‘climate just transition’ using GI as a performance indicator. (Glasgow)	7	x		x
201	Hannon, M. J., Cairns, I., Combe, M., Cooper, E., Davidson, M., Kerr, F., McDonnell, A., Phillips, P., Potts, T., Reay, D., Roberts, J., Wharmby, C. Carbon Offsetting and Communities: Can Nature-Based Voluntary Carbon Offsetting Benefit Scottish Communities?, Workshop Report University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, https://doi.org/10.17868/strath.00083777	This briefing note captures the outputs of a workshop, involving team members and guest speakers, from the University of Strathclyde led project: Carbon Offsetting and Communities: co-developing alternative place-based voluntary offsets in Scotland.	7	x
213	N. Kabisch et al. (2017), Nature‐based Solutions to Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Areas, Theory and Practice of Urban Sustainability Transitions, DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-56091-5_1	This book brings together experts from science, policy and practice to provide an overview of our current state of knowledge on the effectiveness and implementation of nature-based solutions and their potential to the provision of ecosystem services, for climate	7			x
224	Budziszewska, M., & Kałwak, W. (2022). Climate depression. Critical analysis of the concept. Psychiatr. Pol, 56(1), 171-182.	The aim of this paper is to discuss the challenge posed to mental health by climate change. Our inquiry is based on literature review and original qualitative studies. The data are collected from both desk research and in-depth interviews with participants belonging to following groups: high school and university students, young parents, activists, and psychotherapy patients. This paper also offers the critical review of contemporary terminology used for mental health problems and emotions appearing in the context of climate change, as well as the history of scientific interest in the issue at hand	7		x
228	Lee, H., Kim, H., & Pehlivan, N. (2023). Heat exposure and mental health in the context of climate change. In Heat Exposure and Human Health in the Context of Climate Change (pp. 155-187). Elsevier.	This investigation aims to determine the impacts of heat exposure on mental health, in a climate change context, by reviewing the literature systematically to contribute to establishing appropriate public health policies and interventions for mental health. Findings are classified into five categories as diagnosed mental disorders and illnesses, suicides, violence, subjective wellbeing, and other outcomes. The mental health outcomes affected by heat exposure consisted of mortality due to mental illnesses, hospitalizations, emergency department or outpatient visits, aggravation of symptoms, incidence of mental disorders, dementia, suicide, and violence including assault and crime.	7	x
4	Palinkas, L. A., & Wong, M. (2020). Global climate change and mental health. Current opinion in psychology, 32, 12-16.	Poor mental health is associated with three different forms of climate-related events. Depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress are the most common impacts. Impacts represent both direct and indirect consequences of global climate change. Children and residents of low and middle-income countries are especially vulnerable. Understanding impact scope and scale is critical for prevention and treatment.	6	x
23	Coffey, Y., Bhullar, N., Durkin, J., Islam, M. S., & Usher, K. (2021). Understanding eco-anxiety: A systematic scoping review of current literature and identified knowledge gaps. The Journal of Climate Change and Health, 3, 100047.	Scoping review aims to understand 1. how eco-anxiety was operationalized in the existing literature, and 2. the key characteristics of eco-anxiety. Specifically, it seeks to address some conceptual nuance that is overlooked Hence, it focusses on eco-anxiety, not simply as a byword for negative emotions stemming from climate change, but on anxiety as a trauma response to climate change.	6		x
27	Cianconi, P., Betrò, S., & Janiri, L. (2020). The impact of climate change on mental health: a systematic descriptive review. Frontiers in psychiatry, 11, 490206.	163 items were selected. We looked for the association between classical psychiatric disorders such as anxiety schizophrenia, mood disorder and depression, suicide, aggressive behaviors, despair for the loss of usual landscape, and phenomena related to climate change and extreme weather.	6	x
45	Ma, T., Moore, J., & Cleary, A. (2022). Climate change impacts on the mental health and wellbeing of young people: A scoping review of risk and protective factors. Social Science & Medicine, 301, 114888.	This review scopes the current research on what and how RFs and PFs are related to the mental health impacts of both direct and indirect exposure to climate change for young people. RFs and PFs were reviewed through the lens of ecological system theory.	6	x
63	Ojala, M., Cunsolo, A., Ogunbode, C. A., & Middleton, J. (2021). Anxiety, worry, and grief in a time of environmental and climate crisis: A narrative review. Annual review of environment and resources, 46(1), 35-58.	Climate change worry, eco-anxiety, and ecological grief are concepts that have emerged in the media, public discourse, and research in recent years. However, there is not much literature examining and summarizing the ways in which these emotions are expressed, to what processes they are related, and how they are distributed. This study finds that negative emotions regarding environmental problems are normal, and often constructive, responses. Yet, given the nature, range, and extent of these emotions, it is important to identify diverse place-based and culturally relevant strategies to help people cope.	6		x
78	Bikomeye JC, Rublee CS, Beyer KMM. Positive Externalities of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation for Human Health: A Review and Conceptual Framework for Public Health Research. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 3;18(5):2481.	We briefly summarize the burden of climate change on global public health, describe important mitigation and adaptation strategies, and present key health benefits by giving context specific examples from high, middle, and low-income settings. We then provide a conceptual framework to inform future global public health research	6			x
100	Anastasia Baka & Leslie Mabon (2022) Assessing equality in neighbourhood availability of quality greenspace in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom, Landscape Research, 47:5, 584-597	We assess the relationship between neighbourhood-level deprivation and local greenspace quality in Glasgow, Scotland…unlock the health, wellbeing and resilience benefits that good quality greenspace can provide.	6			x
106	Aylward, B., Cunsolo, A., Vriezen, R., & Harper, S. L. (2022). Climate change is impacting mental health in North America: A systematic scoping review of the hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, risks and responses. International Review of Psychiatry, 34(1), 34-50.	This scoping review systematically examined the nature, range and extent of published research in North America that investigates climate-mental health interactions.	6	x
132	Comtesse, H., Ertl, V., Hengst, S. M., Rosner, R., & Smid, G. E. (2021). Ecological grief as a response to environmental change: a mental health risk or functional response?. International journal of environmental research and public health, 18(2), 734.	In this study, we examined how negative climate-related emotions relate to sleep and mental health among a diverse non-representative sample of individuals recruited from 25 countries, as well as a Norwegian nationally-representative sample. Overall, we found that negative climate-related emotions are positively associated with insomnia symptoms and negatively related to self-rated mental health in most countries.	6	x
137	Tang, K. H. D. (2021). Climate change and its impacts on mental wellbeing. Glob Acad J Humanit Soc Sci, 3(4), 144-151.	This review aims to examine the impacts of climate change on people’s mental wellbeing . To achieve the aim, relevant peer-reviewed scholarly articles published between 2000 and 2021. climate change could affect mental health in multiple ways including the experience of mild stress, distress, sleep disturbances, depression and anxiety. Extreme weather events posing risks to life could trigger post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, substance abuse and even suicidal thoughts, in addition to disrupting social support and networks. Gradual climate change yields less dramatic impacts on mental wellbeing. Global warming is associated with transient mental disorders, episodic mood disorders and higher inclination towards aggression while rising sea level stirs fears and worries of inundation, safety and food security. Melting ice changes landscape and triggers solastalgia besides loss of individual identity.	6	x
212	Irena Leisbet Ceridwen Connon, Extreme weather, complex spaces and diverse rural places: An intra-community scale analysis of responses to storm events in rural Scotland, UK, Journal of Rural Studies, Volume 54, 2017, Pages 111-125, ISSN 0743-0167	The article makes the claim that policies and practices of Disaster Risk Reduction, including the Scottish Community Resilience initiatives, need to focus more on the intra-community scale in rural settings in order to better protect residents from the risks that extreme weather poses to human wellbeing.	6	x
223	Mullins, J., & White, C. (2018). Temperature, climate change, and mental health: Evidence from the spectrum of mental health outcomes. Working Papers 1801. Polytechnic State University, Department of Economics, California.	We find that higher temperatures increase emergency department visits for mental illness, suicides, and self-reported days of poor mental health. Specifically, cold temperatures reduce negative mental health outcomes while hot temperatures increase them. Our estimates reveal no evidence of adaptation, instead the temperature relationship is stable across time, baseline climate, air conditioning penetration rates, accessibility of mental health services, and other factors. The character of the results suggests that temperature affects mental health very differently than physical health, and more similarly to other psychological and behavioral outcomes.	6	x
264	Roe JJ, Thompson CW, Aspinall PA, Brewer MJ, Duff EI, Miller D, Mitchell R, Clow A. Green space and stress: evidence from cortisol measures in deprived urban communities. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2013 Sep 2;10(9):4086-103. doi: 10.3390/ijerph10094086. PMID: 24002726; PMCID: PMC3799530.	This study extends an earlier exploratory study showing that more green space in deprived urban neighbourhoods in Scotland is linked to lower levels of perceived stress and improved physiological stress as measured by diurnal patterns of cortisol secretion.	6			x
267	Houlden V, Weich S, Porto de Albuquerque J, Jarvis S, Rees K (2018) The relationship between greenspace and the mental wellbeing of adults: A systematic review. PLoS ONE 13(9): e0203000.	A systematic review of the evidence for associations between greenspace and mental wellbeing, stratified by the different ways in which greenspace has been conceptualised in quantitative research.	6			x
17	Hiscock R, Mudu P, Braubach M, Martuzzi M, Perez L, Sabel C. Wellbeing Impacts of City Policies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2014; 11(12):12312-12345.	Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions.	5			x
21	Hiscock, R., Asikainen, A., Tuomisto, J., Jantunen, M., Pärjälä, E., & Sabel, C. E. (2017). City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?. Preventive medicine reports, 6, 265-270.	It is increasingly realised that enacting climate adaptation policies will have unintended implications for public health, but there has been less focus on their implications for wellbeing. Survey designed to measure living conditions and levels of wellbeing in Kuopio, Finland.	5			x
22	Hiscock R, Mudu P, Braubach M, Martuzzi M, Perez L, Sabel C. Wellbeing Impacts of City Policies for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2014; 11(12):12312-12345.	We illustrate how wellbeing can be divided into objective and subjective aspects which can be measured quantitatively; our review of measures informs the development of a theoretical model linking wellbeing to policies which cities use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.	5			x
35	Berry, H. L., Bowen, K., & Kjellstrom, T. (2010). Climate change and mental health: a causal pathways framework. International journal of public health, 55, 123-132.	We propose an explanatory framework to enhance consideration of how these effects may operate and to encourage debate about this important aspect of the health impacts of climate change.	5	x
40	Lawrance, E. L., Thompson, R., Newberry Le Vay, J., Page, L., & Jennings, N. (2022). The impact of climate change on mental health and emotional wellbeing: a narrative review of current evidence, and its implications. International Review of Psychiatry, 34(5), 443-498.	This article explores the relationship between climate change and mental health, emphasising the need for a comprehensive understanding of the impacts on human wellbeing. The review highlights the urgent need to address the mental health impacts of climate change, emphasizsng the interconnected nature of mental health with environmental conditions. It calls for effective interventions and actions to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on mental health and wellbeing, advocating for a holistic approach that considers various factors influencing mental health in the context of a changing climate.	5	x	x
43	Clayton, S., Manning, C., Krygsman, K., & Speiser, M. (2017). Mental health and our changing climate: Impacts, implications, and guidance.	This is an updated and expanded version of our 2014 report, Beyond Storms & This updated report is intended to further inform and empower health and medical professionals, community and elected leaders, and the public.	5	x
44	Manning, C., & Clayton, S. (2018). Threats to mental health and wellbeing associated with climate change. In Psychology and climate change (pp. 217-244). Academic Press.	The mental health effects of climate change are multifaceted, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and suicide, and anxiety. Research has consistently demonstrated that specific risk factors (e.g., gender, socioeconomic status and education, pre-existing mental health symptomatology), are associated with increased vulnerability to mental health conditions post-disaster.	5	x
46	Hrabok, M., Delorme, A., & Agyapong, V. I. (2020). Threats to mental health and well-being associated with climate change. Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 76, 102295.	This paper aims to describe the impact of climate change on mental health conditions, including risk and protective factors related to the expression of mental health conditions post-disaster, as well as a discussion of our local experience with a devastating wildfire to our region within Canada.	5	x
50	Kjellstrom, T., & McMichael, A. J. (2013). Climate change threats to population health and well-being: the imperative of protective solutions that will last. Global health action, 6(1), 20816	This article highlights links between climate change and non-communicable health problems, a major concern for global health beyond 2015.	5	x
52	Chersich, M. F., Wright, C. Y., Venter, F., Rees, H., Scorgie, F., & Erasmus, B. (2018). Impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing in South Africa. International journal of environmental research and public health, 15(9), 1884.	We systematically reviewed the literature by searching PubMed and Web of Science. Of the 820 papers screened, 34 were identified that assessed the impacts of climate change on health in the country. Most papers covered effects of heat on health or on infectious diseases (20/34; 59%).	5	x
68	Middleton, J., Cunsolo, A., Jones-Bitton, A., Wright, C. J., & Harper, S. L. (2020). Indigenous mental health in a changing climate: a systematic scoping review of the global literature. Environmental Research Letters, 15(5), 053001.	Thus, the goal of this study was to examine the extent, range, and nature of published research investigating the ways in which global Indigenous mental health is impacted by meteorological, seasonal, and climatic changes. Following a systematic scoping review protocol, three electronic databases were searched.	5	x
71	Charlson, F., Ali, S., Augustinavicius, J., Benmarhnia, T., Birch, S., Clayton, S., … & Massazza, A. (2022). Global priorities for climate change and mental health research. Environment international, 158, 106984.	Twenty-two experts participated from across low- and middle-income countries (n = 4) and high-income countries (n = 18). Our process identified ten key priorities for progressing research on mental health and climate change.	5	x
104	Obradovich, N., Migliorini, R., Paulus, M. P., & Rahwan, I. (2018). Empirical evidence of mental health risks posed by climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(43), 10953-10958.	Here, we show that short-term exposure to more extreme weather, multiyear warming, and tropical cyclone exposure each associate with worsened mental health	5	x
122	Clayton, S. (2018). Mental health risk and resilience among climate scientists. Nature Climate Change, 8(4), 260-261.	Awareness of the threats to mental health posed by climate change leads to questions about the potential impacts on climate scientists because they are immersed in depressing information and may face apathy, denial and even hostility from others. But they also have sources of resilience.	5	x
135	Sharpe, I., & Davison, C. M. (2021). Climate change, climate-related disasters and mental disorder in low-and middle-income countries: a scoping review. BMJ open, 11(10), e051908.	We used the scoping review methodology to determine how exposure to climate change and climate-related disasters influences the presence of mental disorders among those living in LMICs. We also aimed to recognise existing gaps in this area of literature.	5	x
147	Seritan, A., Asghar-Ali, A. A., Cooper, R., & Hatcher, A. (2023). The time is now: Climate change and aging adults’ mental health. The American Journal of Geriatric Psychiatry, 31(3), S21.	Review age-specific and socio-economic-cultural determinants which increase the risk of adverse outcomes for this vulnerable population (older people). We will discuss the prevalence and phenomenology of psychiatric conditions that can occur in aging adults exposed to heat waves and/or natural disasters.	5	x
158	Jackson, L., & Devadason, C. A. (2019). Climate Change, Flooding and Mental Health. New York: The Rockefeller Foundation.	This review aims to fill an important gap in understanding of the potential key risk factors affecting farmers’ mental health around the world.	5	x
170	Trenbirth, H., & Dutton, A. (2019). UK natural capital: peatlands. London, UK: Office for National Statistics.	Peatlands occupy around 12% of the UK land area. This dramatic landscape provides over a quarter of the UK’s drinking water and stores a significant amount of carbon making it an important habitat for providing both provisioning and regulating ecosystem services in the UK. Peatlands are also a major tourist destination and provide cultural history contributing significantly to the UK’s cultural ecosystem service.	5			x
265	Beyer KM, Kaltenbach A, Szabo A, Bogar S, Nieto FJ, Malecki KM. Exposure to neighborhood green space and mental health: evidence from the survey of the health of Wisconsin. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2014 Mar 21;11(3):3453-72. doi: 10.3390/ijerph110303453. PMID: 24662966; PMCID: PMC3987044.	This study contributes a population-level perspective from the United States to examine the relationship between environmental green space and mental health outcomes in a study area that includes a spectrum of urban to rural environments.	5			x
54	Tiatia-Seath, J., Tupou, T., & Fookes, I. (2020). Climate Change, Mental Health, and Well-Being for Pacific Peoples. The Contemporary Pacific, 32(2), 400-430.	This article analyzes existing research on climate change and its impact on mental health and wellbeing, primarily among Pacific Islanders. To compensate for a lack of research in this area, the article also addresses some of the projected mental health implications resulting from disasters linked to climate change, such as flooding, hurricanes, and cyclones.	4	x
64	Pihkala, P. Toward a Taxonomy of Climate Emotions. Front. Clim. 2022, 3, 738154.	This article conducts a preliminary exploration of the taxonomy of climate emotions, based on literature reviews and philosophical discussion.	4		x
133	Willox, C., Harper, L., Ford, D., Edge, L., Landman, K., Houle, K., … & Wolfrey, C. (2013). Climate change and mental health: an exploratory case study from Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada. Climatic Change, 121(2), 255-270.	Through a multi-year, community-led, exploratory case study conducted in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Labrador, Canada, this research qualitatively explores the impacts of climate change on mental health and wellbeing in an Inuit context. Drawing from 67 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2010 and October 2010	4	x
241	Thomas, F., Sabel, C. E., Morton, K., Hiscock, R., & Depledge, M. H. (2014). Extended impacts of climate change on health and wellbeing. Environmental Science & Policy, 44, 271-278.	Here we propose that greater insight and understanding of the health-related impacts of climate change can be gained by integrating the positivist approaches used in public health and epidemiology, with holistic social science perspectives on health in which the concept of ‘wellbeing’ is more explicitly recognised. Such an approach enables us to acknowledge and explore a wide range of more subtle, yet important health-related outcomes of climate change.	4	x
42	Huebner, G., (2021), Climate Change and Mental Health. Web article: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/news/2021/jul/climate-change-and-mental-health	Overview of topic with references	3	x
51	Sachs, J. D. (2014). Climate change and intergenerational well-being. The Oxford handbook of the macroeconomics of global warming, 248-259.	Theoretical macro-economic work on wellbeing in a Climate Change context	2	x

Appendix D: Interventions included in Chapter 5

Intervention name	Location	Climate distress focus	Primary sub group	Intervention details	Primary outcome	Evidence effectiveness cluster	Evaluation results	Primary mechanism
Livestock trading grants and collective-action groups	Global south	No	Rural	(1) Step-wise capacity-building interventions (59 collective-action groups with total membership of 2300) (2) Livestock trading grant	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	C	Capacity-building package plus trading grant improved personal/household wellbeing attributes in both Districts in comparison to control group. Link	Capacity
Rational Emotive Behavioural Therapy in Lagos	Global south	No	Poor mental health	REBT (20 sessions; 50 minutes each) delivered in a group setting by therapists with PhD in career/mental health	Relief from disorders e.g. anxiety/depression/PTSD	C	Intervention group had signiﬁcantly decreased depression symptoms in comparison to waitlist control group. Link	Resilience
Skills for Life Adjustment and Resilience (SOLAR) program	Global south	No	Poor mental health	Program delivered in a group setting (up to 10 participants per group) over 5 consecutive days, delivered by trained non- specialist facilitators or ”coaches”	Relief from disorders e.g. anxiety/depression/PTSD	C	Participants had signiﬁcantly decreased distress/post-traumatic stress symptoms and functional impairment after the intervention, with some effects retained at 6-month follow-up. Link	Resilience
Bangladesh flooding grants	Global south	No	Low income	Red Cross Red Crescent Project distributed ﬂood- forecast-based unconditional cash transfer (USD 60 equivalent)	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	C	Intervention group was less likely to experience psychological distress after the ﬂood or feel anxious/depressed in the last seven days before the survey. Link	Capacity
Katatagan health intervention	Global south	No	Any	Locally adapted “Katatagan” resilience intervention delivered in a group setting (5–7 participants per group) over 2 days as part of multi-day mission trips that provide medical/ dental and social services	Improved coping self-efficacy	C	Participants improved in coping self-efﬁcacy in all module domains managing unproductive thoughts and emotions and identifying personal strengths. Link	Resilience
Katatagan anxiety intervention	Global south	No	Any	Locally adapted “Katatagan” resilience intervention delivered in a group setting (8 participants per group) by trained paraprofessionals	Improved coping self-efficacy	C	Intervention group had reduced anxiety scores and increased individual resilience 7–8 months post-intervention in comparison to control group; improvement in adaptive coping was less sustained. Link	Resilience
Haitian disaster preparedness	Global south	No	Vulnerable	3-day mental health integrated disaster preparedness intervention in a group setting (up to 20 participants per group) delivered by trained Haitian lay mental health workers	Relief from disorders e.g. anxiety/depression/PTSD	C	Intervention group had decreased mental health symptoms and functional impairment from baseline; and exhibited a trend in increase in social cohesion. Link	Capacity
Carbon Conversations	UK	Yes	Any	Guided group sessions (typically 6 sessions with 6–8 individuals per group, moderated by 2 trained volunteer facilitators) with themes set out in the handbook; created by Rosemary Randall and Andy Brown	Validation of emotions	B	Participants reported feeling less scared, less powerless, and more empowered (greatest perceived beneﬁt among those with interest in climate change but has not engaged deeply in addressing carbon footprint). Link	Social
Rural Adversity Mental Health Program	Developed	No	Rural	Various; dedicated full- time drought mental health workers; farmer with lived experience/ RAMHP based on DMHAP with new components targeting aboriginal communities, older farmers, youth, women and substance use	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	B	The RAMHP training programme increased mental health understanding and willingness to assist others for over 90 percent of participants. Link 1 Link2	Capacity
Sonoma Wildﬁre Mental Health Collaborative	Developed	No	Rural	(1) Free trauma-informed yoga and meditation classes facilitated by trained yoga instructors, and (2) SPR training to counsellors and paraprofessionals	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	B	Most participants (84%) reported feeling better after class; repeat attendees reported feeling better for the rest of the week (32%), “lasting effects at reducing heightened response to ongoing stressors and episodic triggers”. Limited data to conclude SPR was associated with any mental health improvement. Link	Resilience
Environmental Health Clinic	Developed	Yes	Potential activists	Structured problem- based coping	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	B	Helped convert people’s anxiety and concern about environmental issues into specific, measurable, and significant actions. Link	Resilience
Borderlands Earth Care Youth Institute	Developed	Yes	Low income	Borderlands Earth Care Youth Institute (hands-on nature restoration work); essays and reﬂections on land ethics and nature	Improved coping self-efficacy	C	Program evaluation demonstrated positive effects of the program including improved emotional strength, as well as leadership, sense of community, and social responsibility. Link 1 Link2 Link 3	Nature
Addressing Climate Change impacts through Health Clinics	Developed	Yes	Vulnerable	Community garden hub and many associated programs, including community kitchen, market, school gardening and agricultural courses, tree-planting workshops, and sensory garden for hospital patients and aged-care residents	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	B	Internal program evaluation demonstrated improvements in mental health and social connectedness for participants. Link	Nature
Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program	Developed	Yes	Indigenous	On-the-land activities at ﬁsh camp for youth to connect with indigenous traditional knowledge facilitated by local community members including Selkirk Elders; participatory research documenting climate impact	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	B	Evidence presented showing how programme mitigated and adapted to the health impacts of climate change to demonstrate climate change resiliency within Indigenous communities. Link	Nature
All We Can Save	Developed	Yes	Any	Self-organized groups for reading the book “All We Can Save” over 10 sessions (recommended 6–10 people per group); founded by Katherine Wilkinson and Ayana Johnson	Reduced isolation/increased social capital	B	A survey for past participants is available to ﬁll out on the organization website; results are not public. Link	Resilience
Climate Cares guided journal	Developed	Yes	Youth	Physical journal with 4-weeks of guided activity content to support a person’s “mental wellbeing and effectiveness in acting on environmental issues”; developed by Climate Cares	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	B	Positive qualitative comments from 40 youth who received the journal in a pilot study. Link	Resilience
Climate Café®	Scotland	Yes	Any	Informal community meetings for people to share climate- related feelings and inspire collective action	Validation of emotions	B	Evidence that cafes help participants to validate feelings around climate distress, increase awareness of threats to planetary health, action taken in the face of climate change, and improved social connection. Link	Social
Climate Psychology Alliance’s Climate Cafes	Scotland	Yes	Any	Climate Cafes are a space for talking about emotions. Throughout the Café, the focus of discussion is on participants’ thoughts and feelings about the climate and ecological crises.	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	B	Participants noted how they had not been fully conscious of the depth and breadth of their emotional responses to the climate crisis prior to attendance Link 1 Link 2
Ibanikom Climate Mental Health Literacy Project	Global south	Yes	Youth	A mental health literacy program built on Ibanikom ancestral and cultural identity and knowledge that involved meetings twice a week for 6 months; participants learned about the psycho-effects of climate change and co-developed local small-scale integrated health and agriculture projects that are ecologically sound	Improved coping self-efficacy	B	One-year internal evaluation results indicative of community having increased awareness of climate disasters and mental preparedness of ﬂood effects. Link	Social
Scotland’s Climate Assembly	Scotland	No	Any	Scotland’s Climate Assembly took place between November 2020 and March 2021. Its purpose was to consider and make recommendations on the question: “How should Scotland change to tackle the climate emergency in an effective and fair way?”. Its report was published in June 2021.	Increased hope/optimism	B	Members were less worried and more hopeful than the population as a whole about what Scotland can do to tackle climate, and became increasingly more optimistic that ‘things will work out fine’ over the course of the main Assembly period. 21% reported their feelings about climate change were having a negative impact on their mental health. Link	Participation
Good Grief Network	Developed	Yes	Any	Group sessions (over 10 weeks) delivered by peers in-person or virtually based on the Alcoholics Anonymous Approach; co- founded by Laura Schmidt and Aimee Lewis Reau	Reduced isolation/increased social capital	B	Internal evaluation suggested “participants report feeling less alone, more connected, empowered to take action in their lives”. Link	Social
Wetlands for Wellbeing	UK	No	Poor mental health	The wetland Nature-based intervention was designed to facilitate engagement with nature as a treatment for individuals diagnosed with anxiety and/or depression. Participants took part in a two-hour session per week for six consecutive weeks	Relief from disorders e.g. anxiety/depression/PTSD	B	Significant improvements in mental wellbeing, anxiety, stress and emotional wellbeing, as well as social isolation, confidence to be in nature, and management of physical health. Link	Nature
Cooperative enquiry Welsh school	UK	Yes	Youth	Two separate, but connected and consecutive inquiries were conducted in a high school in South Wales; the first with a group of young people (13-14 year olds), the second with a group of supportive adults (their teachers and leaders).	Reduced isolation/increased social capital	B	Cooperative inquiry helped the participants feel less alone and more connected with others in the group, with the teachers and the school, and prompted action. Link	Social
Climate Awakening	Developed	Yes	Any	Climate Emotions Conversations (group sharing and listening sessions; 4 participants per session) that occur 3 times per month guided by videos and conversation prompts; founded by Margaret Salamon	Validation of emotions	A	N/A	Social
Circularity	Developed	Yes	Any	Facilitation of in- person and virtual custom workshops that draw from climate psychology and nature therapy	Reduced isolation/increased social capital	C	N/A.	Social
Public mobile app to reduce symptoms of postdisaster distress	Developed	No	Youth	Sonoma Wildﬁre Mental Health Collaborative: “Sonoma Rises” mental health app based on SPR and uses select audio tools from PTSD Coach	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	No signiﬁcant effects on clinical/functional outcomes detected; may be due to confounders/ small sample size. Link	Resilience
Climate Psychology Alliance	UK	Yes	Any	Therapeutic outreach program involving trainings and workshops on climate psychology	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	A	N/A	Resilience
Conceivable Future	Developed	Yes	Any	House parties for individuals to connect, advocate against fossil fuel subsidies, and provide testimonies on the climate crisis, which is viewed as a reproductive justice crisis; led by Meghan Kallman and Josephine Ferorelli	Reduced isolation/increased social capital	A	N/A	Social
Deep Adaptation Forum	UK	Yes	Any	In-person or virtual groups and recurrent events (nature and frequency dependent on facilitators); speaker and workshop offerings; founded by Jem Bendell	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Social
Eco-Anxious Stories	Developed	Yes	Any	Online platform for climate and mental health storytelling; participatory “Sharing our Stories” worksheet, and services include eco- anxiety workshops, content creation and resource development; founded by Rachel Malena-Chan	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	A	N/A	Communication
Force of Nature	UK	Yes	Youth	Training programs for young people, youth speakers agency, student consulting network for businesses and non-proﬁts, Anxiety- to-Agency workshops for students and educators; founded by Clover Hogan	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	A	N/A	Resilience
Globe and Psyche	Developed	Yes	Practitioners	Local conversation meetings to “explore what climate change means in their area, both its impacts and also opportunities for personal and collective healing”	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	A	N/A	Practitioners
Hold This Space	Developed	Yes	Any	An interactive website that guides individuals to “feel, imagine and connect” around climate change issues; developed by Common Vision in partnership with Climate Cares and Force of Nature	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	A	N/A	Communication
One Earth Sangha	Developed	Yes	Any	Trainings, courses, and events aimed to build practices, community and action based on Buddhist tradition and Dharma teachings	Improved levels of empowerment	A	N/A	Resilience
Project InsideOut	Developed	Yes	Any	Online hub with interactive tools and resources to engage with and transform feelings, with the goal of becoming Guides to inspire changes in others	Improved levels of empowerment	A	N/A	Practitioners
The Climate Journal Project	Developed	Yes	Activists	Live journal circles and weekly climate journal prompts to “cope with eco- anxiety, move past paralysis and transition into action”; founded by Yvonne Cuaresma	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
The Eco- Anxiety in Africa Project (TEAP)	Global south	Yes	Youth	A project of Sustyvibes founded by Jennifer Uchendu; offers research service, community action events, and physical/virtual spaces for sharing climate emotions	Validation of emotions	A	N/A	Social
The Resilience Project UK	UK	Yes	Youth	Youth are trained through a residential program then lead 8-week Circles (typically 10 youth per Circle) to build knowledge and co- design programs to build resilience for other youth	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	A	N/A	Participation
The Resilient Activist	Developed	Yes	a	Self-care, speaker’s bureau, online events, climate cafés, and nature- connected programming that support emotional wellbeing; founded by Sami Aaron	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
The Rest of Activism	UK	Yes	Any	A grant-subsidized program (by the Emergence Foundation) founded by Jo Musher- Sherwood that includes a weekly facilitated structured online space to support individuals’ “joy-ﬁlled activism”; monthly subscription fee required for membership	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	A	N/A	Resilience
The Resource Innovation Group (TRIG)	Developed	Yes	Practitioners	Workshops, webinars, and conferences based on the Resilience Growth Model of Transformation	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Practitioners
Transition Network	UK	Yes	Any	Global network of community-led Transition groups that aim to build resilient communities and caring culture with an “Inner Transition” dimension (and “Heart & Soul” groups) that investigate the emotional/ psychological aspects of climate action	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
Flood Re	Scotland	No	Low income	Underwriting flood insurance in the UK for citizens/businesses in flood-risk areas and building back better (BBB) so that properties are more resilient to flooding	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	A	N/A	Capacity
Psychology for a Safe Climate (PSC)	Developed	Yes	Practitioners	Professional Development series designed to equip health and mental health professionals with knowledge and skills needed to become more climate aware. 3-session series.	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	A	N/A	Practitioners
Ecotherapy and Climate Conscious Training and Consultation for Mental Health Professionals	Developed	Yes	Practitioners	10-session, weekly group based online training for mental health practitioners to train in eco-therapy or climate-conscious therapy	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	A	N/A	Practitioners
The work that reconnects	UK	Yes	Any	Wide variety of activities, including workshops, study groups, webinars, conversation cafes and retreats around the world	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
Living with the Climate Crisis	UK	Yes	Any	Living with the Climate Crisis and its predcessor Carbon Conversations offer emotionally safe spaces to discuss and share feelings arounf climate change	Reduced isolation/increased social capital	A	N/A	Social
Emotional Resilience Toolkit for Climate Work	Developed	Yes	Activists	A facilitation guide for individuals, including a compilation of five practices	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
Green Latinos Coalition	Developed	Yes	Minorities	A broad coalition of Latino leaders committed to addressing national, regional and local environmental issues	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	A	N/A	Participation
Outdoor Afro	Developed	Yes	Minorities	A non-profit that connects more than 100 leaders in 56 cities around the US to connect thousands of people to nature experiences	Reduced isolation/increased social capital	A	N/A	Participation
Sunrise Movement	Developed	Yes	Youth	“A youth movement working to stop climate change and create millions of good jobs in the process”	Improved levels of empowerment	A	N/A	Participation
Fridays For Future	Scotland	Yes	Youth	Youth-led global strike movement, the goal of FFF “is to put moral pressure on policymakers, to make them listen to scientists, and then to take forceful action to limit global warming”	Improved levels of empowerment	A	N/A	Participation
Youth Vs Apocalypse (YVA)	Developed	Yes	Youth	“A diverse group of young climate justice activists working together to lit the voices of youth, in particular youth of color and working-class youth.”	Improved levels of empowerment	A	N/A	Participation
Classroom guide for confronting anxiety and despair	Developed	Yes	Teachers	A paper that includes a strategic guide for confronting anxiety and despair in environmental studies and sciences	Reduce general psychological distress/stress	A	N/A	Resilience
Contemplative pedagogy	Developed	Yes	Teachers	Contemplative pedagogy is a method of integrating emotions into teaching practices, involving using mindfulness, silence, sensitivity to feelings in the body in teaching practice	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
Existential Toolkit for Climate Justice Educators	Developed	Yes	Teachers	A website to help support environmental educators with hundreds of curated resources for educators	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
Staying Sane in the Face of Climate Change	Developed	Yes	Youth	A toolkit (two versions) to support emotional resilience, mental health and action and build capacity of educators and students of crisis students to remain positive, resilient and effective.	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Resilience
Transform our world	Developed	Yes	Teachers	An online hub to support teachers in bringing environmental and social action in the classroom	Validation of emotions	A	N/A	Resilience
Biocitizen	Developed	Yes	Youth	Offer summer camps, after-school enrichment, day hikes and overnight trips for children and teens.	Increased hope/optimism	A	N/A	Nature
Acta Non Verba	Developed	Yes	Youth	Offers services including education, childcare, economic empowerment, and access to green, safe spaces and healthy food	Improved general wellbeing or mental health	A	N/A	Nature
The evolving edge	Developed	Yes	A	Undoing Oppression sub-area that includes an Anti-Oppression Resource Group, a Spiral Journey Facilitator Development Program, and School for the Great Turning which is oriented to centering BIPOC activists, organizers, healers, and educators.	Improved coping self-efficacy	A	N/A	Climate justice

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How to cite this publication:

Gieve, M., Drabble, D., Copeland, R., Clay, F., Iacopini, G. (2025) Climate change and mental health & wellbeing – a review of emerging evidence, ClimateXChange. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6005

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

High School Yards

Edinburgh EH1 1LZ

+44 (0) 131 651 4783

info@climatexchange.org.uk

www.climatexchange.org.uk

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

This source suggests that common mental illness and mental disorders include Anxiety Disorders, Depression, Bipolar Disorder and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) ↑
E.g., substantial numbers of high-quality research papers linking climate change impacts (such as flooding, wildfires, increased temperatures) to poorer mental health outcomes (such as increased risk of mental disorders, suicide, or poorer mental wellbeing). ↑
No intervention was primarily focused on moving participants directly into climate action as a way of supporting wellbeing. However, 16 interventions encouraged action through other means, such as group therapy, toolkits, and discussion groups. ↑
Please note, use of the term ‘resilience’ in this section refers to individual psychological/ emotional resilience as opposed to climate/community resilience to extreme weather events, for example. ↑
The research was conducted using a randomised control trial (RCT), with two post-intervention surveys, both undertaken following a typical hurricane season with moderate associated flooding and other storm-related damage in the research communities. ↑
These tasks being: to accept the reality of the loss, to process the pain of grief, to adjust to a world without the deceased, and to find an enduring connection with the deceased in the midst of embarking on a new life. ↑
Evidence quality was assessed using the wording in question 3 for Cluster C, in 8.4.3 below, that is, whether the research was based on an appropriate / well-articulated and justified research approach that is commensurate with the intervention, which could be qualitative, quantitative or mixed methods. ↑
1. What is the evidence of climate related risks and impacts to mental health and wellbeing in Scotland, and how these might differentially affect population groups? ↑
2. How is ‘eco-distress’ (including ‘eco-anxiety’) currently defined, what is the current/potential prevalence in Scotland and how might this differentially affect population groups? ↑
What is the evidence on effective prevention and early intervention, and on responding to mental health and wellbeing risks and impacts in a climate change context in Scotland? ↑
What is the evidence of co-benefits and risks, or unintended consequences, for mental health and wellbeing from climate action (both mitigation and adaptation) relevant in a Scottish context? ↑

Research completed: March 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6006

Executive summary

Our soils underpin all nature-based systems and are therefore vital for Scotland’s communities and economy. From food security to transport disruption through events such as landslides, the climate resilience value of investing in healthy soils is recognised by the Climate Change Committee as a priority adaptation area for Scotland.

There are many risks threatening Scottish soils across different soil types and land covers. However, unlike air and water, there is no single overarching soil policy providing security and governance for Scottish soils. Soils are spread across multiple policy divisions, which results in a lack of cohesive leadership in tackling threats to soils.

The aim of this route map is to consolidate the challenges of managing soil systems to develop an overarching strategy for delivering improved soil security across Scottish landscapes.

Key points

There is increasing awareness of the important role soils play for our communities, economy and environment in terms of their ability to contribute to climate regulation, flood resilience, food security, support forestry and assist biodiversity. This is reflected in recent policy updates which have outlined objectives that directly relate to improvements in soil health and/or security, such as:

The 3rd Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029
Scotland’s National Peatlands Plan
National Planning Framework 4
UK Forestry Standard 5^th Edition
The Vision for Agriculture and Agricultural Reform Programme (Agriculture and Rural Communities Act)
Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045

This route map acknowledges the challenges of addressing soil security in a policy context due to the absence of an overarching soil-specific policy. Currently actions to support soils sit across different policies, which focus on different environmental challenges at different scales. Nevertheless, this route map outlines opportunities to gain value and effectiveness through better coordination of existing activities and policy delivery.

Next steps

Objectives

This route map recommends six objectives for Scotland to achieve our vision of ‘thriving soils for Scotland’s communities, economy and environment’:

Lead – Inspire and collaborate to deliver the vision for Scottish soils
Protect – Prevent further damage to soils
Restore – Repair damaged soils
Enhance – Strengthen soils for the future
Evidence – Data, knowledge and wisdom relating to Scottish soils
Mobilise – Communicate, engage and participate towards thriving soils in Scotland

Next steps

We recommend that the delivery of the route map is supported by ensuring the following:

Scottish Government support the vision and common goals through the allocation of a soil policy group to lead and coordinate the delivery of this route map
Baseline Scottish soil status to ascertain a starting point towards ‘thriving’ soils
Collaboratively identify specific cross-sectoral actions to protect, restore and enhance Scottish soils
Mobilise actions into practice through bespoke implementation plans
Monitor progress and review future developments

Glossary

Brownfield	Refers to land that was previously urban/used for industry
Ecosystem services	Ecosystem Services are the direct and indirect contributions ecosystems (known as natural capital) provide for human wellbeing and quality of life. This can be in a practical sense, providing food and water and regulating the climate, as well as cultural aspects such as reducing stress and anxiety. In fact, the vast number of services provided by ecosystems can be categorised into more manageable groups of: provisional; regulating; cultural; and the slightly more ambiguous, supporting services
Eutrophication	The gradual increase in the concentration of nutrients (e.g. nitrogen and phosphorus) in aquatic ecosystem
Flood resilience	Reduce the intensity and/or frequency of flood events and severity
Food security	To have reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable and nutritious food
Greenfield	Land that was previously undeveloped
Net zero	A target of completely negating the amount of greenhouse gases produced by human activity, to be achieved by reducing emissions and implementing methods of absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere
Peatlands	Peat is a defined soil type that has at least 50 cm organic horizon. NatureScot use Ramsar Convention’s definition of peatland: “Peatlands are ecosystems with a peat deposit that may currently support vegetation that is peat-forming, may not, or may lack vegetation entirely”. The Soil Survey for Scotland states that peat should have an organic layer or layers that exceed 50 cm deep from the soil surface and an organic matter content of more than 60%
Peaty soils	Also known as organo-mineral soil. Mineral soils with a peaty topsoil which is less that 50cm thick
Soil acidification	Soil acidification is the lowering of soil pH due to an accumulation of hydrogen ions. Soils with a pH of less than 5.5 is considered ‘acidic’
Soil carbon sequestration	Soils are in constant exchange with the atmosphere, they take in carbon (via photosynthesis, root exudates and the addition of organic material) and release carbon (through gas emissions associated with respiration or indirectly via leaching). Where a net gain in carbon exists the soils are considered to be ‘sequestering’ carbon
Soil carbon stock	The mass of carbon stored in the soil organic matter per area
Soil compaction	Soil compaction is a form of physical degradation in which soil biological activity and soil productivity for agricultural and forest cropping are reduced, resulting in environmental consequences away from the immediate area directly affected
Soil contamination	Soil contamination is when soil is polluted, implying the presence of chemicals and materials in soil that have a significant adverse effect on any organisms or soil functions. Soil pollutants include inorganic and organic compounds, some organic wastes and the so-called “chemicals of emerging concern”
Soil degradation	Soil degradation is defined as a change in the soil health status resulting in a diminished capacity of the ecosystem to provide goods and services for its beneficiaries
Soil enhancement	To improve soil health and resilience beyond its current state and the status quo
Soil erosion	The process of soil being gradually damaged and removed by the waves, rain, or wind, or the result of this process
Soil function / functionality	Soil Functions refers to the six key roles that soil plays in an ecosystem, including providing a medium for plant growth, supplying and purifying water, recycling nutrients and organic wastes, serving as a habitat for soil organisms, modifying the atmosphere, and acting as an engineering medium
Soil health	Physical, biological and chemical status of a soil which provide a range of soil functions (e.g. see AHDB Soil health card for Scotland)
Soil management	A collective term describing a range of practices and applications imposed on soils for a range of purposes (e.g. food production, ground preparation, urban developments, conservation etc)
Soil organic matter	Soil organic matter means all living, or once-living, materials within, or added to, the soil. This includes roots developing during the growing season, incorporated crop stubble or added manures and slurries
Soil protection	Refers to activities which contribute to the prevention of degradation of soils
Soil resilience	Soil’s ability to buffer or ‘cope’ with stresses such as extreme weather events and disturbance
Soil restoration	To ‘repair’ soils which have been degraded in some way (e.g. physical, chemical or biological degradation)
Soil risks/risks to soil	Refers to the threats and pressures on soils which may negatively impact on soil health and/or soil function
Soil salinisation	Soil salinization is a term that indicates the phenomenon or process of accumulation of water-soluble salt in the soil
Soil sealing	The covering of soil (generally with an impermeable material) for the purpose of urban development
Soil security	To defend soils from risks, dangers and threat that jeopardise its existence, health and function
Soil structure	The spatial arrangement of soil particles (called aggregates, crumbs, blocks or peds). Soil structure influences soil functions, for example how water moves through it and susceptibility to degradation such as erosion and compaction.
Water storage capacity / water retention	The ability for soils to hold or maintain water

Why we need a “Soil Route Map for Scotland”

We rely on soils for a wide range of primary functions (outlined on Scotland’s Soil Website) as soils underpin all nature-based systems and are therefore core to Scotland’s communities, environment and economy (Figure 1). However, evidence shows that there are several risks associated with poor soil management which threatens the future security of Scottish soils.

The costs associated with inaction are not only related to environmental impacts as these risks cascade to include socio-economic repercussions. Baggaley et al (2024) estimated that compacted soils in Scotland costs land managers up to £49 million annually in yield losses, up to £26 million per year in additional fertiliser use required to operate with compacted soils and up to £76,000 per household from increased flood risk and insurance claims attributed to soil compaction and soil sealing (Appendix A). From food security to transport disruption (e.g. through landslides) the climate resilience value of investing in healthy soils is recognised by the Climate Change Committee as a priority adaptation area for Scotland.

Risks to soil health

There are many risks to the health and security of our soil systems. Table 1 shows risks outlined in the Scottish Soil Framework (2009) and more recently in the Environmental Standards Scotland (ESS) report (2024). This highlights that many of the risks identified in the Scottish Soil Framework (2009) are still prevalent and jeopardising the future security of Scotland’s soils and the many functions they provide (Figure 1).

Table 1. Risks to Scottish soils outlined in the Scottish Soil Framework (2009)

Threats to soils ranked across all soil functions at the national scale (1 being the highest risk) and the Environmental Standards Scotland Report (2024), ranking threats as high, medium or low based on a set of criteria.

	Scottish Soil Framework (2009)	Environmental Standards Scotland Report (2024)
Climate change impacts on soil	1	–
Loss of organic matter and carbon	2	Medium
Soil sealing	3	Low
Acidification and eutrophication	4	–
Loss of soil biodiversity	5	High
Soil contamination	6	Medium
Soil erosion and landslide	7	High
Pesticide application	8	–
Soil compaction	9	High
Salinisation	10	–
Risks from the inconsistent approaches to data collection and monitoring	–	High
Risks from carbon sequestration schemes	–	Medium
Water retention/capacity of soils	–	Medium
Application of waste to land	–	Medium
Landfilling of waste soil	–	Medium
Soilborne diseases and pests	–	Low

In terms of prioritising these risks, the two publications suggest different rankings, with the Scottish Soil Framework (2009) listing the impacts of climate change, the loss of organic matter (and carbon), soil sealing and soil degradation from acidification and eutrophication as the top four threats to Scottish soils. The ESS report (2024) ranked soil erosion and landslides, soil compaction, the loss of biodiversity and risks associated with inconsistent approaches to data collection and monitoring as being of highest priority. Opinions from a recent stakeholder workshop (Appendix B) identified soil disturbance, erosion and organic matter loss to be the highest priorities within agricultural and forestry sectors, with soil sealing ranking highest in the urban/built environment sector. At the landscape scale, the lack of a soil-specific policy was noted as the highest risk to soils in Scotland.

Soil degradation

Soil degradation (i.e. soils with diminished functionality) has wide reaching impacts, not just on soil properties, but also in terms of soil functionality and the broad ecological services which soils provide, which can also result in wider economic impacts. For example, impacts of soil degradation can include loss of yields, greater fuel use, loss of land, increased greenhouse gas emissions, increased diffuse pollution and degraded water quality, increased flooding events and flooding intensity and loss or damage to cultural and archaeological sites.

Soil degradation is not limited to one soil or land use type; it cuts across landscapes making the protection of soils challenging as there is no single solution. Therefore, due to the broad range of soil and land use types across Scotland (Appendix B), addressing the risks to soils will require a multi-layered, cross-sectoral approach. Despite this, unlike air and water, there is no single overarching soils policy focus with governance of soils being spread across multiple policy divisions This has resulted in a fragmented approach to tackling the threats to soil resources.

In addition to the wide range of policy objectives which impact on soils, the Scottish Government has a long history of investing in research for future policy development and delivery through the Environment, Natural Resources and Agriculture Strategic Research Programme (SRP) and Centres for Expertise (ClimateXChange, CREW and SEFARI). Through the current SRP (2022-2027), approximately £50 million a year is invested to ensure that ‘Scotland maintains its position at the very cutting edge of advances in agriculture, natural resources and the environment’, with the research of soils being vital across SRP themes (see Appendix D). The protection and enhancement of soils is essential for achieving many of Scottish Government’s policy objectives (e.g. net zero, food security, flood resilience, biodiversity and climate adaptation). However, without an overarching vision for Scottish soils and soil-specific policy, it can be challenging to harness such evidence into impactful implementation to better protect Scottish soils.

The Route Map

The aim of the route map is to consolidate the challenges of managing soil systems (see Appendix E) across multiple land uses and policy themes and to develop an overarching strategy for delivering improved soil security across Scottish landscapes. The route map is also intended to indicate – and drive forward – positive actions towards the protection, restoration and enhancement of Scottish soils while delivering objectives across the nature-based policies highlighted. Specific aims of the route map for Scotland include:

Review existing soil protection within Scottish policy – to support the development of a route map, current knowledge and public policy-related research is reviewed to ascertain how Scotland’s policy objectives are underpinned by healthy soils and how available knowledge is used in decision making and policy development.
Develop a framework for the ‘Soil route map for Scotland’ – set a vision to act as a common goal across policy themes and identify objectives which offer an effective pathway for improving soil security in the future.
Implementation considerations of the ‘Soil route map for Scotland’ – explore potential actions that offer opportunities for delivering the route map objectives across existing policy deliverables.

Soil protection in existing Scottish policy and legislation

Currently, in Scotland the legislative landscape for soils is fragmented across multiple policy divisions within Scottish Government and largely aims to protect other environmental areas (such as water and biodiversity) from poor management of soils, rather than soil itself. However, soil security and soils are referenced across environmental acts, policies and strategies, as outlined below.

The Scottish Soil Framework (2009)

The Scottish Soil Framework (2009) is the most comprehensive, soil-specific document, to date, bringing together the wide range of risks to soils as well as activities that contribute to overcoming these risks through 13 positive soil outcomes, which are;

Soil organic matter stocks protected and enhanced where appropriate.
Soil erosion reduced and where possible remediated.
Soil structure maintained.
Greenhouse gas emission from soils reduced to optimum balance.
Soil biodiversity, as well as above ground biodiversity, protected.
Soils making a positive contribution to sustainable flood management.
Water quality enhanced through improved soil management.
Soil’s productive capacity to produce food, timber and other biomass maintained and enhanced.
Soil contamination reduced.
Reduced pressure on soils by using brownfield sites in preference to greenfield.
Soils with significant historical and cultural features protected.
Knowledge and understanding of soils enhanced, evidence base for policy review and development strengthened.
Effective coordination of all stakeholders’ roles, responsibilities and actions

A Scottish Soil Framework Progress Report (2013) highlighted developments since the framework’s publication, which highlights a range of activities such as the launch of the Centres of Expertise (2011), the publication of The State of Scotland’s Soil report (2011) and the development of the ‘Scotland’s Soil Website’.

Developing a framework for the “Soil Route Map for Scotland”

The vision for the soil route map is “Thriving soils for Scotland’s communities, economy and environment”. This was developed to encompass the 13 outcomes (listed in Section 4) of the Scottish Soils Framework, which is a comprehensive and representative list of essential soil functions and reflects the contribution soils have to Scottish communities and economic stability.

Six objectives to achieve this vision and address the range of soil risks identified (Table 1) are outlined below (see Figure 2). These objectives are considered essential to support a series of proactive actions which offer practical opportunities for positive change towards soil security in Scotland and are further described in Table 2 below. Appendix G provides further description of approaches taken in the route map development.

Table 2. Description of the six objectives within the Route Map for Scotland

Objective	Description
LEAD (L)	‘Inspire and collaborate to deliver the vision for Scottish soils’ Provide an overarching vision and evidence-based policy framework to support the various levels of leadership in conducting activities that relate to the protection, restoration and enhancement of Scottish soils, which is mobilised through effective communication, upskilling and engagement.
PROTECT (P)	‘Prevent further damage to soils’ Ensure soils across Scottish landscapes are safeguarded against further decline in soil health or increase in vulnerability to physical loss from risks outlined in Table 1
RESTORE (R)	‘Repair damaged soils’ Provide evidence-based guidance, policies and where appropriate legal pathways to identify and alleviate degraded soils across different land uses in Scotland.
ENHANCE (En)	‘Strengthen soils for the future’ Recognising change and additional measures to soil improvement above and beyond the status quo, which contribute to future proofing via resilient healthy soils and maximising the potential of our soils for generations to come.
MOBILISE (M)	‘Communicate, engage, participate’ The delivery of the route map will rely heavily on engaged participation, collaboration and effective communication of the objectives and best practices to achieve them through strengthening delivery mechanisms and processes that will enable actions whether that be via legal pathways or otherwise. This includes participation across policy makers, regulators, researchers, land managers, practitioners, local councils, community groups and land use partnerships working collaboratively to foster positive changes for the future.
EVIDENCE (Ev)	‘Data-information-knowledge-wisdom’ Utilising data to underpin interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral evidence-led decision making and monitoring progress. Harnessing local and cultural knowledge and wisdom to identify areas of success and potential opportunities for change.

Potential implementation of the route map

The six key objectives in the route map (Figure 2 and Table 2) provide a framework to address the range of challenges faced by soils and allow flexibility for specific actions within each objective to be applied across temporal and spatial scales. The aim of the route map is to build upon existing progress, to explore opportunities and develop a cohesive (and inclusive) plan which is effectively communicated to drive the delivery of objectives outlined.

The Scottish policy landscape can appear complex as it represents the diverse environmental landscapes of Scotland which are intertwined with our communities and national economy. Therefore, a vital component of successful implementation will be the active engagement and participation across multiple organisations, agencies and industries spanning a range of sectors that represent the cross-sectoral importance of our soils.

The route map proposes a blended approach of strategic policy-led coordination driven by the identified policies which impact on soils (Appendix F) and a risk-led delivery of actions requiring coordination across multiple stakeholders, outlined across the six objectives.

The risks to soils span different land use types providing cross-cutting themes affecting multiple policy areas. A risk-led approach to identifying actions provides an opportunity for policy teams and wider delivery sectors to come together to collaboratively address soil risks which can then be delivered/implemented within existing policy frameworks. As there are specific, place-based risks and pressures associated with soils, it will be important to engage across the range of stakeholders and sectors with soil-related interests, to share experiences and to exchange knowledge towards a better understanding of good soil management specific to that place.

Objective 1 – Leadership (L)

Actions to support the implementation of leadership
L1	Assemble a ‘Soil Policy Team’ within Scottish Government
L2	Update the Scottish Soil Framework
L3	Review the potential of statutory targets to be introduced and potential alignment with EU Soil Monitoring Law and Nature Restoration Law

Action L1: Assemble a ‘Soil Policy Team’ within Scottish Government

This route map highlights that the legislative landscape for soils is particularly fragmented across different policy areas. To better coordinate the delivery of a cross-sectoral route map for Scottish soils, this action proposes the establishment of a soil-focused policy team to lead in the progression of collaboration to effectively implement objectives and achieve the objectives outlined.

Action L2: Update the Scottish Soil Framework.

This route map provides an initial cross-sectoral framework for integrating soil-focused activities across the current suite of environmental protection policies to safeguard Scottish soils (and wider environment) from future challenges. It is recommended that the Scottish Soil Framework (2009) be updated to contribute to policy priorities including those set out in the 3rd Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029, Scotland’s National Peatland Plan, National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4), UK Forestry Standard (UKFS) 5th edition, the Vision for Agriculture and Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045 as well as supporting the objectives set out in the recent Natural Environment (Scotland) Bill (2025) and National Flood Resilience Strategy (2024) through soils underpinning nature-based systems (Figure 1) and being central to many nature-based solutions. An updated Scottish Soil Framework will also support progress of the route map objectives and the continuation of the current Soil Policy Working Group (comprising representatives from core Scottish Government policy and analytical services divisions, ClimateXChange, NatureScot, SEPA and Historic Environment Scotland) to allow for regular updates on any developments that influence or impact Scottish soils and to maintain momentum in the delivery of activities relating to soil protection, restoration and enhancement.

Action L3: Review the potential of statutory targets to be introduced and potential alignment with EU Soil Monitoring Law and Nature Restoration Law.

In the ESS report (2024) it was noted that ‘Scotland, formerly a world leader with the Soils Framework, is now falling behind international best practice in this area and should consider mirroring developments in Europe and initiate statutory duties to protect and monitor soils’. It is suggested that statutory duties include mandatory targets for the restoration of drained peatland soil, assessment of contaminated land and soil sealing policy as well as legislative proposals that reflect the proposed EU Soil Monitoring Law and Nature Restoration Law.

Currently, there is no EU-wide soil-specific legislation, however as part of the European Green Deal and EU Biodiversity Strategy 2030 the European Union has developed their EU Soil Strategy for 2030. The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) and International Initiative for the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Soil Biodiversity were adopted at the Convention on Biological Diversity COP 15 meeting in December 2022 to support the restoration, maintenance and enhancement of soil health. Following this, the EU proposed a new Soil Monitoring Law in July 2023 to protect and restore soils and ensure that they are used sustainably.

Targets can provide common goals to work towards and benchmarks for assessing progress. However, these need to be in tune with the overarching vision and objectives and in relation to specific soil characteristics and varied land cover types we have in Scotland. Consideration needs to be given to the implications which target-setting can have to avoid unintended consequences. For example, targets for increased soil carbon contents can be set, however managing soil carbon is complex and involves dynamic biogeochemical processes as part of the global carbon cycle (see Appendix H). The simple message of ‘increasing soil carbon’ may lead to management practices which are conducted in goodwill, but whilst leading to improvements in soil health, may also inadvertently lead to increased greenhouse gas emissions from soils.

A workshop was held to review stakeholder views on soil monitoring in Scotland and the potential of EU alignment (Appendix I). The workshop outputs (Appendix I) outline opportunities for Scotland to produce a more appropriate monitoring platform in relation to Scotland’s unique landscape which would better reflect Scotland’s communities, economy and environment (reflected in Objective 5, Action Ev3). Therefore, Action L3 proposes a two-stage review.

A thorough examination of the principles and objectives of the EU Soil Strategy for 2030 and the proposed EU Soil Monitoring Law.
An assessment of how these principles and objectives can be best implemented in Scotland. The assessment should consider both the potential for a tailored, bespoke soil protection plan that reflects Scotland’s unique landscape and priorities (as informed by stakeholder engagement) and an evaluation of whether direct alignment with the EU framework would be beneficial and feasible for Scotland. This includes reviewing the range of metrics which may be appropriate to apply as targets within future statutory requirements. Finally, to identify opportunities for Scotland-specific targets offering multiple benefits to soil health with transparency in relation to any trade-offs.

Objective 2 – Protect, Restore and Enhance (PREn)

Identify actions needed to protect (P), restore (R) and enhance (En) soil – Identifying what needs to be achieved in practical soil management.
PREn1	Coordinate task groups for shared best practice
PREn2	Place-based evidence reviews to identify actions needed

The route map suggests a collaborative, cross-sectoral approach to mobilise Scottish soil security through evidence-led leadership, soil protection, soil restoration and soil enhancement for the future. To achieve this collaborative approach, Objective 2 suggests the operation of task groups to come together to share knowledge and best practice to protect, restore and enhance soils in relation to risks identified (Section 3).

Action PREn1: Coordinate task groups for shared best practice

Within each ‘task group’ the aim would be to review what activities currently work well and what else can be done to protect, restore and enhance soils in relation to risks identified (Table 1, Section 3). The groups should be forward-thinking and involve appropriate representatives from across different sectors who work with, or are affected by soils (i.e. landowners, practitioners, local authorities, community groups, policy makers, regulators and researchers etc). It is suggested that the task groups have clear terms of reference to outline core purpose, terms for delivery and effective coordination of all stakeholders’ roles, responsibilities and actions. This offers opportunities for co-delivery across various policy objectives to be explored. For example;

Theme 1: Soil sealing and management of soils in construction and urban development

This task group will aim to protect high value soils from sealing and opportunities to reduce, reuse and recycle soil resources. In addition, the task group will share knowledge on soil ‘value’ across land use, land capability and the provision of ecosystem services (and nature-based solutions). Examples of areas the task group could review;

Review of tools used to assess soil ‘value’ to provide further support for informed decision-making in relation to new developments, such as how soils and other assessments (for example, The Land Capability for Agriculture) are used in Environmental Impact Assessments during the land use planning process. There are opportunities to support soil protection (particularly high carbon soils) and offer further guidance on interpreting soil data/information for improved understanding of soil systems and their value across soil types/land use types and associated wider functions, contributing to more informed decision making.
Engage with local authorities (e.g. Heads of Planning Scotland) and agencies (e.g. SEPA) to provide support on soil protection, restoration and enhancement (where appropriate) in local development plans and Strategic Environmental Assessments (as outlined by SEPA)
Promote and support the reuse of valuable soil during developments as outlined by SEPA and review good practice codes (E.g. SEPA Guidance (2017) ; SR/SEPA guidance (2012) and Construction Code of Practice for the Sustainable Use of Soils on Construction Sites, Defra, UK to reduce soil ‘waste’ and limit the quantity of soil going to landfill.

Theme 2: Erosion, compaction and slope stability (physical integrity of the soil)

Review where current guidance exists for supporting the physical integrity of soils as well as the prevention and restoration of soils affected by, or at risk to soil erosion, compaction or diminished stability. Explore where this guidance can be translated across to other land uses/sectors to enable wider application and support co-delivery across sectors. For example, there is guidance relating to soil structure for agriculture in the ‘Valuing your Soils’ brochure, which may offer transferrable knowledge. In addition, the Centres of Expertise have guidance which offers an initial evidence base to develop this action further, such as;

Theme 3: Application of chemicals (nutrient management and soil contamination)

Explore best practice to protect soils from contamination resulting from the application of chemicals (e.g. pesticides), poor nutrient management (e.g. synthetic fertilisers), wastes applied (e.g. sewage sludge) and emerging contaminants (e.g. PFAS, microplastics, pharmaceuticals within or additional to those in wastes applied). Review strategies for alleviating soils already affected by contamination as well as identifying soils at future risk and in need of further protection. For example, the task group could review guidance and legislation which exists to protect soils from poor nutrient management and contamination to identify pathways to improve awareness and implementation through existing policies such as;

Scottish Nitrogen Balance Sheet to reduce excess nitrogen in soil systems which can lead to leached nitrates (affecting waters) and emitted as nitrous oxides (indirect and indirect greenhouse gas emissions). This will be considered in the nutrient management plans to come within the Whole Farm Plan of the Agriculture Reform Program, and nitrogen balance sheet of the Climate Change Plan. How can the implementation of improved nitrogen management be applied more widely across sectors?
Diffuse pollution prevention (CREW) offers soil management guidance to minimise negative effects on local watercourses
The James Hutton Institute and Fidra have outlined the impacts of unregulated microplastic, organic chemical and pharmaceutical contaminants on soil health (Re-assessment of environmental risks of sewage sludge, 2024), some of which are currently not regulated or included in soil routine soil testing.
Environmental Standards Scotland has begun investigatory work on the application and effectiveness of Environmental Protection Act Part 2A. Support local authorities to identify and remediate contaminated soils as part of the Environmental Protection Act, Part 2a

Theme 4: Soils in private sector sustainability plans and corporate responsibility

In recent years there has been growing interest in soil health, soil carbon sequestration potential and the role of soils to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services with respect to sustainability reporting within the private sector. This is a rapidly evolving field as businesses look to evaluate how their business may impact climate and nature as well as identifying risks associated with their business being impacted by adverse climate and nature-related events as outlined in TCFD (Taskforce for climate-related financial disclosures) and TNFD (Taskforce for nature-related financial disclosures). There are a range of emerging tools and guidance available for companies to use which offers opportunities for further guidance in relation to soil management in relation to ecosystem services and how this may link to supply chain resilience, nature-related risks and private investment opportunities for nature restoration and carbon sequestration.

Theme 5: Soil monitoring and metrics

To understand the extent to which soils need protecting and restoring requires, to some extent, the need to monitor soil condition. The ESS report (2024) highlighted the lack of a comprehensive monitoring network in Scotland, resulting in, for example, not knowing whether the number of soil erosion incidences (and magnitude of erosion) is increasing or decreasing. There are a range of approaches to monitoring soils and stakeholders agreed (Appendix I) that to formalise a soil monitoring programme for Scotland, an agreed purpose or set of objectives for the programme going forward is required. This will provide clarity in the specific metrics needed to monitor soil health, risk and resilience in Scotland and inform the development of the soil monitoring framework in terms of establishing baselines, whether targets and benchmarks should be incorporated, the degree to which stratification may be required and how the data could contribute to further research and support evidence-led decision making. This also includes scoping opportunities for the soil monitoring programme to contribute to environmental modelling and amalgamated landscape-scale datasets for wider environmental assessment. Therefore, there is scope to review how best to monitor developments in soil protection, restoration and enhancement across the actions proposed (and appropriate metrics required to do so). This may entail exploring the possibility of a Directive on Soil Monitoring and Resilience to be established as outlined in the ESS report (2024). Initial recommendations in relation to evidencing and monitoring Scottish soils are outlined in Objective 4.

Action PREn2: Place-based evidence reviews to identify actions needed

A core objective of the task groups would be to support the delivery of existing ‘good’ practice and explore potential alignment of these practices across other sectors through place-based, cross-sectoral evidence reviews on appropriate practical measures to protect, restore and enhance soils; as well as exploring mechanisms and pathways to mobilise activities identified. This may include identifying where the underpinning research and practical experiences can be translated to inform task groups on future applications, as well as identifying gaps to explore. For example, there may be gaps or areas for improvement in relation to soil literacy and soil-based skills, which could be addressed so that soils can be better protected, restored and enhanced in the future. Evidence reviews will support mechanisms for decision making and identifying ‘minimum viable product’ that can be deployed to initiate change following the evaluation of impacts (positive and negative) in terms of overall trade-offs.

Objective 3 – Mobilise (M)

Actions to support the identification of how to mobilise and achieve objectives.
M1	Identify existing legal/regulatory avenues for implementing actions for soil protection, restoration and enhancement via implementation plans
M2	Identify existing and new avenues to implement actions for soil protection, restoration and enhancement via landscape-scale implementation plans

Task groups might be put in place to identify pathways for implementation, which use existing avenues in the first instance. The groups could also give insight into new opportunities for the implementation of actions that protect, restore, and enhance soils.

Action M1: Identify existing legal/regulatory avenues for implementing actions for soil protection, restoration and enhancement via implementation plans

Current codes of practice and guidance exist across most sectors. These can be updated with latest evidence providing a streamlined approach to safeguarding soils across sectors. Common language, metrics and messaging will support landscape-scale problem-solving. Therefore, it would be useful to develop and expand good practice guidance across Scottish land uses, to share knowledge and best practice, develop commonalities and ensure alignment across the different sectors, for example:

Agricultural codes of practice include GAECS, Whole Farm Plan, Prevention of environmental pollution from agricultural activity guidance (PEPFAA), ‘Valuing Your Soils’ brochure
Explore opportunities to include additional measures to GAECS or the Whole Farm Plan such as tests for ‘soil compaction’ and/or ‘soil degradation’ to be performed utilising evidence and guidance that is already available, in order to identify and alleviate soil compaction and wider degradation. This would also enable the development and promotion of clear guidance for practitioners and support the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045 recommendation that by 2030 farm and forestry machinery contractors are engaged in ensuring appropriate use of equipment, uptake of decision-making tools and training, to minimise and ultimately avoid compaction damage to soils.
Review opportunities to harness and better utilise information collated through the Agricultural Reform Programme’s Whole Farm Plan, which includes soil testing alongside carbon and biodiversity audits (and will introduce nutrient plans in 2028). This may include the provision of further advice on how to interpret the information collected into sustainable soil management that supports soil heath and resilience in terms of aligning to the objectives of soil protection, restoration and enhancement. In addition, there may be opportunities for the knowledge gathered from soil testing to be collated in some way, for the purpose of supporting evidence and monitoring (e.g. national soil health status and a Scottish soil monitoring framework) and research (e.g. for national soil mapping, modelling changes and forecasting, better understanding of the interaction between soils and land management practices).
The Agricultural Reform Programme Tier 4 offers opportunities for mobilising soil protection, restoration and enhancement measures as it refers to additional, ‘complementary’ activities that support good practices, such as developing new skills, knowledge, training and continued professional development, as well as advisory services and business support (advice, knowledge exchange and linkages to wider land management support from Scottish Government officials and/or public partners) and development of measurement tools.
‘Valuing Your Soils’ brochure was published in 2015 and provided case studies of effective management related to challenges such as managing soil pH, nutrient management, compaction and drainage. The booklet provided peer-to-peer learning in the form of short, clear messages and on-farm examples (case-studies). An update to the ‘Valuing your Soils’ brochure offers a mechanism for communicating and mobilising recommendations related to the route map’s objectives on soil protection, restoration and enhancement in relation to the risks identified and incorporating recent developments across the agricultural reform programme.
UK Forestry Standards
Review whether there is scope to update and widen woodland management guidance and plans (between 2023 and 2030) to reflect greater emphasis on actions that will improve biodiversity including use of elements from ‘Site Condition Monitoring’ and ‘Woodland Ecological Condition’ monitoring as recommended in the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045.
There is also scope to include ‘soil compaction’ or ‘soil degradation tests’ as outlined above, which will support the development and promotion of clear guidance for practitioners on soil compaction and ensure that by 2030 farm and forestry machinery contractors are engaged in ensuring appropriate use of equipment, uptake of decision-making tools and training, to minimise and ultimately avoid compaction damage to soils – as recommended in the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy to 2045.
Peatland Action
Review whether there is scope to include some protection or further guidance for ‘peaty soils’ in relation to different land uses (notably planning, agriculture and forestry) to enhance the protection of high carbon soils.
Originally proposed in The Scottish Strategic Framework for Biodiversity, the development of the targeting of peatland restoration for cost-effective delivery (i.e. identifying priority restoration projects) including for greater private investment in peatland restoration. It is also noted that there’s a need to “scale delivery of the Peatland Action programme, restoring the condition of peatlands as a key ecosystem in line with net zero targets and supporting the expansion and upskilling of the peatland restoration workforce”.
Ensure all peatland restoration projects are completed to the same standards regardless of funding source, including transparency in data collected for defining peatland condition used to calculate baseline emissions.

Action M2: Identify existing and new avenues to implement actions for soil protection, restoration and enhancement via landscape-scale implementation plans

The delivery of actions will need to be coordinated at the landscape-scale and will involve engagement with a range of cross-sectoral stakeholders. To begin this process there are opportunities to engage with existing initiatives, for example Regional Land Use Partnerships, Climate Adaptation Partnerships, Landscape Enterprise Networks and Local Authorities. Developing from M1, action M2 seeks to provide evidence-based opportunities and solutions following the identification of gaps, limitations and barriers to implementation. This will entail reviewing the appropriateness and applicability of solutions across sectors, land cover and soil type (for example where soils are naturally compacted) as well as exploring pathways for effective implementation.

Objective 4 – Monitor (Ev)

Actions to support current and future baselining, monitoring and evidencing Scottish soils
Ev1	Baseline soil ‘status’ across land use types of Scotland.
Ev2	Identify evidence gaps and future improvement options across different land uses
Ev3	Scottish soil monitoring framework
Ev4	Evidence-led recommendations for future soil protection, restoration and enhancement.

To effectively manage our landscapes for improved soil protection and future resilience to risks, there is a need to establish a baseline i.e. what is the current status of our soils.

Several attempts have been made to define a set of metrics to monitor soil physical, biological and chemical properties and wider soil functionality (and ecosystem services). A recent UK workshop on soil monitoring reviewed approaches to soil monitoring across the four nations to evaluate the readiness of soil-assessment-focussed research used within UK policy delivery. The workshop highlighted that despite the challenges of identifying the most appropriate strategy for monitoring such complex systems, “there is great potential value in working to ensure the data collected has a degree of consistency, to support wider targets and understanding of soil heath.” Further research into harmonisation of soil monitoring across the four nations is currently being undertaken to develop this knowledge further.

Action Ev1: Baseline soil ‘status’ across land cover types of Scotland.

The assessment of Scottish soils is currently conducted via a range of mechanisms governed by different policy groups across different land uses (e.g. agriculture, peatland, forestry, planning, construction/development, sport & recreation, protected areas etc). Despite this, there is a general consensus amongst policy makers and academics (Appendix I) that there is a need to progress with the current data and knowledge available to create a baseline of soils in terms of soil health plus its vulnerability to risks and the wider potential impacts on soil function. It is acknowledged that there is already a lot of data available in Scotland and so there is a good base from which to develop baselines and a monitoring framework.

Benchmarking soils are not easy as changes occur at different temporal (and spatial) scales and are so diverse that in turn their value in terms of services they provide, vary significantly across sectors and can be quite subjective. In order to set meaningful targets, and to appropriately benchmark across soil-land use types, a specific soil policy lead (team) should be identified. At present there is no single agreed soil monitoring framework for Scotland and little standardisation or harmonisation of data across different sectors. Therefore, this objective proposes further progression of the Scottish Soil Monitoring Action Plan (2012) which followed the State of Scotland’s Soil Report (2011) as well as developments being made through Scotland’s Strategic Research Programme 2022 to 2027 (Appendix D), Centres for Expertise research (E.g. Monitoring soil health in Scotland by land use category – a scoping study) and National Soil Inventory of Scotland (demonstrated on the Scotland’s Soils website) towards a Scottish Soil Monitoring Framework (which aligns with other UK monitoring schemes where appropriate).

Specifically, this objective calls for some agreement on the most appropriate metrics to baseline soil ‘status’ (an indication of soil health, soil functionality and soil’s vulnerability to risk) and resource a baselining exercise from which changes in soils over time can be assessed.

Action Ev2: Identify evidence gaps and future improvement options across different land uses

This action is to identify evidence gaps with respect to monitoring soil protection, restoration and enhancement across different land uses, as identified by the soil monitoring workshop (Appendix I). For example,

Review the extent of current soil monitoring and how it may vary across land use types;
Assess the availability and accessibility of data across sectors and identify where improvements can be made;
Evaluate methods and metrics used and to study soils and how they may vary across sectors due to the contextual differences in soil functioning and ecosystem services provided. Explore where there are opportunities for some harmonisation to better identify the functions offered by soils at a landscape scale (for example how soils are valued across land uses and better connect land management practices to the potential ecosystem services and nature-based solutions which different soils can provide) and understand the drivers of change in soil management and subsequent soil condition across land uses and sectors;
Identify priority issues for soil protection, restoration and possible enhancement across landscapes. This includes vulnerable soil types which areas are at most risk of degradation and potential locations for the greatest opportunities for protection, restoration and/or enhancement of soils.
Establish how are ‘degraded’ soils currently defined across land use/soil types and policy themes and to what extent are Scottish soils degraded;
Review opportunities to better assess soil health and vulnerability to risks through emerging technologies and novel applications in terms of what they provide/contribute to soil protection, their technical readiness and potential to incorporate/implement into baselining soil protection (e.g. Infra-red, soil acoustics, X-Ray Diffraction, eDNA and microbiome characterisation, LIDAR, AI, etc).

Action Ev3: A Scottish Soil Monitoring Framework

A soil monitoring programme will need clear vision, purpose and objectives to ensure the monitoring programme is transparent, robust, fit for purpose and can be interpreted by wide-ranging audiences. Therefore a ‘task group’ comprising key stakeholders is suggested (see Table 3) to agree objectives and technical content of a monitoring framework as well as terms of reference for the governance and management of a soil monitoring framework. This would develop upon the findings from the ‘Scottish Soil Monitoring Framework’ workshop December 2024 (Appendix I). Other considerations include: deciding on the most appropriate metrics to be included in a monitoring framework, align to policy and reporting needs; encourage data sharing (e.g. personal, research, government and third-party data sources), review what tools/mechanisms/technology are available to assess soils in Scotland and to ensure that any framework is future-proofed. There is also scope to review metrics used across different schemes (e.g. agri-environmental schemes and the measuring, reporting, verification used in carbon schemes) and corporate reporting frameworks (see Table 3) to promote some harmonisation across terminology and approaches used in relation to soils, such as how they are valued and how current soil status and/or soils may change over time are measured and interpreted.

A Scottish soil monitoring framework would directly deliver to the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy objective of “set up monitoring frameworks to assess change in soil health, based on evidence from the Strategic Research Programme (2022-2027)”. The framework will provide evidence to monitor and validate impacts as well as contribute to future evidence-led decision making and inform further research developments.

Action Ev4: Evidence-led recommendations for future soil protection, restoration and enhancement.

Action Ev4 is to review progress towards the objectives set out in the route map. The evaluation of progress should allow for flexibility and adaptability to include future/emerging challenges and pressures which may be environmental (e.g. changing climates and emerging contaminants), industry-related (e.g. market vulnerabilities and/or new environmental reporting requirements) and/or community-based (e.g. workforce needs). Action Ev4 will identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for further information to be collected out with the soil monitoring framework, which would provide valuable insight on the progression to soil security in Scotland. For example, identifying what works and does not work to inform where improvements could be made as well as future research needs across fundamental and applied science. This will enable Scotland to be a leading example in mobilising actions towards thriving soils through effective landscape-scale and cross-sectoral soil protection, restoration and enhancement measures, which support future Scottish communities, the economy and environment.

Conclusions

This route map provides an overview of the range of risks threatening Scotland’s soils and highlights challenges in tackling these risks across different soil types, site characteristics, land use types and a range of cross-cutting policy themes at the landscape scale.

Without co-ordination from an overarching soil policy, it will be difficult to overcome the existing, and future, challenges in deploying actions to specifically target landscape-scale challenges relating to soil security in Scotland.

The route map sets out early thinking about the actions which might be put in place to lead, mobilise and gather evidence, in the first instance. The proposed actions that will protect, restore and enhance soils need to be grounded in the latest evidence, requiring development work by interdisciplinary and cross-sectoral task groups to inform evolving overarching policy.

The 3^rd Scottish National Adaptation Plan objective NC2 specifically outlines the need to take actions at the landscape scale, in a collaborative way, in order to protect and enhance Scotland’s soils, increasing their resilience to the impacts of climate change, and land use challenges. Therefore, this route map provides an opportunity to build on the existing progress and momentum that has been developed in specific policy areas, to ensure soil protection, restoration and enhancement of all of Scottish soils.

Appendices

Appendix A Socio-economic impacts of soil degradation

Infographic on the assessment of socio-economic impacts of soil degradation on Scotland’s water environment (Baggaley et al 2024)

Appendix B Soils of Scotland

Soils of Scotland, taken from the Scotland’s Soils Web National soil map of Scotland | Scotland’s soils

Appendix C Summary of Workshop 1 outputs – Identifying risks and opportunities for Scottish soils

The workshop aimed to collate stakeholder views and opinions in relation to current issues and opportunities for soil security in Scotland. In particular, to review changes and developments since the publication of the Scottish Soil Framework (2009).

Participants were grouped (where possible ensuring there was a mixture of research & policy representatives and organisation across groups) and asked to engage with two group activities and two individual activities outlined below;

Group Activity 1:

Each group was asked to discuss and note “What do you think are the key risks/threats for soil security and/or soil health in Scottish” and “What do you think are driving these risks?” relating to the specific land use of the session (Agriculture, Forestry, Urban and Integrated landscapes) and feedback to the wider group.

Individual Activity 1:

Following the group discussion and sharing of key risks, threats to soil and their drivers, participants were given 5 stickers each (black for researchers, red for policy/regulator representatives) to vote on the risk they thought is of most priority. Participants could choose to allocate all of their stickers to one specific risk or to spread them out across a range of risks (providing some indication on the weight of concern across the risks identified). Participants were also encouraged to move around the room and review risk/threats identified by other groups when allocating their stickers.

Group Activity 2:

Each group was asked to discuss and note –

What policy/regulation is in place (relating to Agricultural soils)? Comments noted on pink post-it notes or directly on the list of policies outlined in the SSF (print out provided)
What research, evidence, data, guidance is used to support soils in agriculture? Comments noted on blue post-it notes
What do you think are the key gaps, updates and/or opportunities to better protect soil? Comments noted on yellow post-it notes

Discussions were to be specific to the land use session (Agriculture, Forestry, Urban and Integrated landscapes) with the groups feeding back to the wider group of participants

Individual Activity 2:

Following the group discussion and sharing of key gaps and opportunities to better protect soil within agriculture/forests/urban/landscapes in Scotland – participants were again given 5 stickers each (black for researchers, red for policy/regulators) to vote on the gaps and opportunities they thought is of highest priority. Participants could choose to allocate all stickers to one specific gap/opportunity or spread them out across a range of gaps/opportunities (providing some indication on the weighted priority across gaps/opportunities identified). Participants were also encouraged to move around the room and review gaps/opportunities identified by other groups when allocating their stickers.

Information provided by participants was collected and transcribed.

Summary of workshop outputs:

The top 5 risks and threats to Scottish soils voted for by participants across agriculture, forestry, urban and integrated landscapes.

	Agriculture	Forestry	Urban	Landscape
1	Soil disturbance, erosion & organic matter loss	Soil disturbance, erosion & organic matter loss	Soil sealing & consumption	Lack of soil-specific governance and policy
2	Biodiversity loss	Biodiversity loss	Cumulative effects of climate change	Under valuing soils as an asset/resource
3	Soil contamination & environmental pollution	Climate change (Tree species, pests, weather impacts)	Soil contamination (historic)	Difficulty dealing with spatial heterogeneity
4	Climate change & extreme weather events	Wider impacts (loss of peat)	Soil classification as ‘waste’ going to landfill, limited reuse	Loss of soil function (via compaction, erosion)
5	Lack of collaborative, catchment scale management	Market pressures & demands (driving specific tree species)	Undervaluing soil as an asset	Data available, sharing, accessibility

The top 5 gaps/opportunities voted for by participants relating to ‘securing Scottish soil’ across the four land use sessions.

Rank	Agriculture	Forestry	Urban	Landscape
1	Need for soil governance or policy (joint 1st)	Better data availability & accessibility	Review classification of soil as ‘waste’	Need for soil governance or policy. Mainstream & update SSF
2	Better data availability & accessibility (joint 1st)	Need for soil governance or policy	Strategic planning for rainwater runoff	Better data availability & accessibility
3	System scale modelling & visualisation tool	Re-design of schemes to better mitigate impacts on soil	Improve enforcement of soil reuse & contamination rules	Integrate soils focus into place-based approaches
4	More peer-to-peer learning	Improve soil literacy, education & training	Assess soil data/information is utilised in planning	Better links across policy areas
5	Improve soils literacy	Include soil assessment in licensing plantations	Biodiversity (above & belowground) in urban soils	Spatial data integration

Appendix D Soil research across Scottish Government’s Strategic Research Programme (2022-2027)

Underpinning evidence for informing policy comes from the Scottish government research programme (SRP). Research relevant to soils occurs in all 6 themes in the SRP and Underpinning National Capacity;

Theme A: Plant and Animal Health
Theme B: Sustainable Food System and Supply
Theme C: Human impacts on the Environment
Theme D: Natural Resources
Theme E: Rural Futures
Theme F: BioSS research

It is also a key part of the work within CxC and CREW for example the project on the socio-economic cost of soil degradation funded through CREW and the Soils Fellowship funded through CxC. Soils research highlighted here includes work on understanding how soils function, how changes can be monitored and translation it so it can be used by a range of stakeholders.

The table below gives an outline of how soils underpin SRP themes as well as where there is ongoing direct soil-focused research

Theme	Topic	Link to Scottish soils
A: Plant and Animal Health	A1. Plant Disease	Soil health can influence the prevalence of pests and diseases which may impact plant and animal health. Soils can be a carrier of plant and animal diseases, and soil properties can impact their availability. Soil borne diseases can be a form of soil contamination.
	A2. Animal disease
	A3. Animal Welfare
B: Sustainable Food System and Supply	B1. Crop improvement	The combination of land management and climate change influences trajectories of soil properties. Long term trials allow the adaptation and mitigation potential, sustainability and trade-offs associated with management practices to be analysed. This includes an exploration of the interactions between management practices and crop cultivars.
	B2. Livestock improvement	Understanding soils in the context of livestock management is important part of understanding feed availability, carbon footprints and how managing livestock is impacted by climate change.
	B3. Improving agricultural practice	Soils are vital for sustainable productivity and impact food and drink quality and subsequently human nutrition and overall health.
	B4. Food supply and security
	B5. Food and drink improvements	Soil contamination including contaminants of emerging concern are held in soils and can be transferred to vegetation and water courses. B5:(Contaminants of emerging concern in the food chain) B6:( Antimicrobial Resistance)
	B6. Diet and food safety	Soil contamination including contaminants of emerging concern are held in soils and can be transferred to vegetation and water courses. B5:(Contaminants of emerging concern in the food chain) B6:( Antimicrobial Resistance)
	B7. Human Nutrition	Understanding human nutrition can be linked to the “One Health Concept” but the focus of this work is on human interactions and choices linked to food.
C: Human impacts on the Environment	C2. Agricultural GHGs	Development of options for a monitoring agricultural GHGs within a soil monitoring framework. Interactions between soil health and land management decisions across land covers
	C3. Land Use (inc. mapping)	Soil data and information contributes to wider landscape quality and functioning
	C4. Circular Economy (inc. waste)	Understanding the circular economy can be linked to issues of “waste to land” and “soil as a waste” but there is no specific work on these here.
	C5. Large Scale Modelling	Development of options for a soil monitoring framework and the requirements for the incorporation of monitoring data in large scale modelling across landscapes.
	C6. Use of Outdoors and Greenspace	Understanding the use and value of our outdoors and greenspace is important part of understanding soils in these areas but the focus of this work is on how these areas are used and viewed by people.
Theme D: Natural Resources	D1. Air Quality	Soil is in constant exchange with the atmosphere. Soil impacts air quality through GHGs. Soil health is impacted by air quality
	D2. Water (including flooding)	Nature based solutions – Soil is in constant exchange with the water cycle. Soils can retain water (important for flood resilience), filter and buffer chemicals (important for water quality). Soil leaching and erosion can be problematic for water quality and flood resilience
	D3. Soils	Soil health can be impacted by management decisions. Understanding soil functional relationships across different land covers supports improved land management decisions. It also identifies trade-offs and win-win scenarios. Understanding forestry systems, soil health and ecosystem carbon dynamics is important for landscape scale decision making. New technologies and analysis protocols can lead to the ability to rapidly sample soils and also identify changes providing indications of soil contamination. Farmer led soil assessments and data provide tools for on farm decision making. Exploring the potential for real time monitoring and whether this can help inform management in cultivated systems. Peatlands are a unique habitat and understanding GHG fluxes, being able to monitor the interactions between these fluxes, water balance and biodiversity under restoration in a changing climate is important for understanding their impacts on wider ecosystem services such as water quality.
	D4. Biodiversity	Soil biodiversity underpins and can be an indicator of soil functions in both semi-natural and cultivated ecosystems. It therefore supports plant communities and underpins our wider biodiversity and natural capital. Understanding links between soil biodiversity, which can be more responsive than other indicators of soil health, soil functions and wider ecosystem services is important for understanding the potential impacts of climate change and setting baselines that better represent soil functions.
	D5. Natural Capital	Combining data on climate and soil functions in modelling approaches provides insight into changes in soil vulnerability and risks in a changing climate. Implementation of the LCA in a research platform, enabling it to be updated with new soils and climate data and run with future climate projections to explore consequences on land use.
Theme E: Rural Futures	E1. Rural Economy	Indirect link – soils underpin ecosystem services of rural communities. Healthy soils will contribute to a healthy economy and rural community.
	E2. Rural Communities
	E3. Land Reform
Theme F: Vision and Impact : Horizon scanning		Development of statistical methods to analyse diverse soils data and inform the design of a monitoring framework. (BIOSS statistical research)
Underpinning National Capacity	Soils Data and website	Combining and Managing soils data in Scotland’s soils database increases its power to do policy relevant research. Translation of soils data and making the data available to a wide range of stakeholders. Including the development of apps.
Underpinning National Capacity	Soils Archive	Management of the soil archive allows for the testing of laboratory protocols and the analysis of samples for new indicators

Appendix E Challenges to landscape-scale soil management

To effectively as well as stakeholder feedback (link to Workshop outputs) highlighted a range of challenges associated with managing soils in a changing climate, which are summarised below

Challenge	Description
Lack of soil focused governance	No overarching policy to support accountability and leadership to drive soil protection in Scotland
Climate change	Soils play a vital role in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Soils are impacted by variable weather patterns and more frequent extreme weather events (flooding and droughts), which can have knock on effects to soil protection, fertility and productivity, flood resilience, water quality etc.
Diversity of Scottish soils	Scotland’s soils (Appendix B) are diverse, providing a range of specific functions to the wider ecosystem. They include mineral soils which provide fertile land for food production, deep peat storing carbon to depths in excess of 10 meters, soils which are linked to specific land covers and soils where protection is critical to protect wider ecosystem services such as water quality and quantity. However, this variation across soil types, topography, local weather patterns, land capability, land use history and current land use leads to multiple layers of complexity affecting overall soil health and security. This requires the provision of management guidance and a monitoring framework that is fit for purpose across different soil types and land covers.
Multiple demands on Scottish soils	Balancing the multiple demands on soils requires an assessment of the multiple requirements from our land. For example Scottish food security (e.g The production food contributing to Good Food Nation (Scotland) Act (2022)); the production of raw ingredients for wider produce (e.g. whisky production, which requires agricultural soils for barley production but impacts peatlands via peat burning in some malting processes); production of animal feed; soil sealing to support housing developments, infrastructure and urbanisation; platform for achieving forestry targets.
Defining soil ‘value’ across sectors and land uses.	How soils are ‘valued’ varies across land uses and soil types. This leads to variable levels of knowledge, evidence and protection across land uses. Soils have a wide range of properties, and not all soils can deliver the same services. There is scope for decision-making and management to be more place-based in relation to specific value and functions provided by different soils.
Defining, measuring and monitoring soil health, security & resilience	Clearer guidance is required in terms of defining, understanding and measuring various components of soil systems and well as capturing (and understanding) their dynamic nature, such as soil carbon sequestration potential. There is also a need for keeping abreast of UK and wider EU initiatives on defining and monitoring soil health and the indicators that maybe required to align with these.
Linking soil health to functionality	Soil health indicators are context dependant and are not a one size fits all. It is important to understand how ‘soil health’ should be defined and quantified across different soil and land use types where what the soil can deliver (soil functionality) and the ‘value’ of those functions in those areas also vary.
Soil biodiversity	Lack of research relating to the role of soil biodiversity in soil health and protection, particularly in terms of monitoring changes in soil biodiversity, which can often require complex measurements. There is however increasing availability of powerful data analysis techniques that allow more detailed interpretation of this kind of data and along with the availability of archived samples the ability to investigate change.
External (industry) challenges	Markets & supply chains can have direct and indirect influences on our landscapes and soils. With more attention on soil health within corporate nature-related target-setting and reporting, it is important that there are resources available to guide appropriate interpretation and implementation of soil knowledge for future sustainability, environmental net gain, resilient landscapes and carbon management.
Emerging challenges	It is important to consider emerging and future challenges (e.g. new pollutants, increased demands on our soils etc) which may impact soils. For example, ensuring mechanisms exist which support new challenges being identified, monitored and support exists to protect soils from any negative impacts and future degradation.
Soil literacy	As soils support a wide range of ecosystem functions across different sectors, there can be some inconsistencies in relation to how soils are described, understood, valued, evidenced and managed. Improved soil literacy across sectors (e.g. clearer definitions, understanding the dynamic nature of soils, interpreting core soil metrics and potential limitations of soil tests/models) will support informed decision making and land management going forward. It is also important to address any skills gaps that may hinder the delivery of healthy, resilient soils across Scotland.

Appendix F Where soils sit across different policies and legislation

List of policies and their connection to soil protection.

Policy	Are soils mentioned?	Specific action/objective to address soil risks?
Policy	Are soils mentioned?	Physical (soil loss)	Physical / structural (compaction)	Conservation of OM and C	Soil biology / biodiversity	Chemical / contamination)	General health & protection
Scottish Soil Framework (2009)	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Scotland’s National Peatland Plan and Peatland Action;	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
(5th) edition of the UK Forestry Standard (UKFS) (2023)	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Agricultural Reform Programme (List of Measures)	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and Delivery Plan, 2024	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Scotland’s National Planning Framework 4	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y	Y
Agricultural Reform Programme (Cross Compliance)	Y	Y	Y	Y			Y
Building standards technical handbook 2020: domestic, 2020	Y		Y			Y	Y
The 3rd Scottish National Adaptation Plan (2024)	Y			Y			Y
Sludge (Use in Agriculture) Regulations, 1989	Y					Y	Y
The Action Programme for Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (Scotland) Regulations, 2008	Y					Y	Y
Environmental Protection Act 1990 – Part IIA Contaminated Land (2006)	Y					Y	Y
The Pollution Prevention and Control (Scotland) Regulations (2012)	Y					Y	Y
Statutory Guidance Waste Management Licensing (Scotland) Regulations (2011)	Y					Y	Y
The Radioactive Contaminated Land (Scotland) (Amendment) Regulations (2007)	Y					Y	Y
The Water Environment (Controlled Activities) (Scotland) Regulations (2011)	Y	Y					Y

The policies below include reference to soil health more generally:

Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005	Circular Economy and Waste Route Map to 2030	The Public Gas Transporter Pipe-line Works (Environmental Impact Assessment) Regulations 1999
Climate Change Plan (2018-2032);	Wildlife Management and Muirburn (Scotland) Act 2024	The Offshore Petroleum Production and Pipelines (Environmental Impact Assessment and other Miscellaneous Provisions) (Amendment) Regulations 2017
Forestry and Land Management (Scotland) Act (2018)	The Electricity Works (Environmental Impact Assessment) (Scotland) Regulations 2017	Fitting Landscapes Policy, 2014. Transport Scotland
Scotland’s Forestry Strategy 2019 to 2029	Land Reform (Scotland) Bill, 2024	Town and Country Planning (Scotland) Act 1997
Right Tree in the Right Place (RTRP)	Local Food Strategy, 2024	Local development planning guidance, 2023
Sustainable and Regenerative Farming – next steps: statement (2022)	Bioenergy – draft policy statement: consultation (2024)	Onshore wind: policy statement 2022

Appendix G How the ‘Soil Route Map’ was developed

The route map was developed across three key phases:

Phase 1: What do we already know?

The initial phase involved reviewing current policies, regulations, frameworks and evidence (research) across different land uses to ascertain current knowledge as well as policy and/or legislative support in relation to soil health and security in Scotland. This included a review of The Scottish Soils Framework (2009) in terms of developments in knowledge and actions since its publication.

Phase 2: What are the key challenges for securing Scottish soils in a changing climate? Consolidating evidence, guidance and opinions. The second phase of the project comprises the collation of key messages derived from a stakeholder workshop. These discussions included researchers, policy makers, regulators, and representatives from charities and other governmental agencies.

Phase 3: Opportunities and pathways to implementing soil security in Scotland for ‘The Route map’. The development of the proposed route map comprises an iterative process with phase 3 being the refinement of consolidated evidence from phases 1 and 2, into an easy-to-follow report outlining future opportunities, potential barriers/challenges, research gaps and where additional resources may be required.

Stakeholder Engagement

A key component of the route map development is the input from stakeholders across all areas of land management to contribute to- and provide feedback on- the route map development, which included three sets of workshops:

Workshop 1: Identification of the risks and threats to soils across land covers to review the challenges across different land use sectors (August 2024);

Workshop 2: Discuss the development of a soil monitoring framework for Scotland, potential alignment with the EU Soil Monitoring Law and how a monitoring framework could support the objectives within the soil route map (November 2024);

Workshop 3: Refining the vision and objectives of the Scottish soil route map

Within all phases of the route map development, consideration was given to the specific barriers and opportunities outlined in the Scottish National Adaptation Plan 3, particularly the underpinning research and how this is translated into policies and how these can be implemented to protect soils better in the absence of overarching governance relating specifically to soils in a Scottish policy context.

Appendix H The carbon cycle

The carbon cycle from The British Soil Science Society – Science Note on Soil Carbon. Carbon stocks and flows on land and in the oceans (adapted from Jenkinson, 2010). The numbers in bold are stocks in Gigatonnes (Gt) C: those in italics are flows in Gt C per year. Topsoil and subsoil stocks exclude peatlands.

Appendix I Workshop outputs – A Scottish Soil Monitoring Framework (SSMF)

The workshop comprised 4 group activities (outlined below) to discuss the development of a Scottish soil monitoring framework (SSMF) with attendees from across Scottish research institutes, Scottish Government, NatureScot, SEPA and Historic Environment Scotland.

Activity 1: What do we want to achieve with a SSMF? Objective setting – What should be monitored? For example;

Soil health status – a record of physical, biological, chemical characteristics at a given moment in time and space.
Soil vulnerability to risk – climate and weather resilience, contamination and diffuse pollution risks, soil compaction, rate of sealing, vulnerability to physical loss (erosion) and destabilisation (landslides)
Soil functionality – for example how soils are contributing to biogeochemical cycling and climate change, water storage, water quality and flood management and supporting ecosystem biodiversity etc.
Soils across land use – are the objectives of a SSMF the same across different sectors and land uses? (peatlands, agriculture, forestry, horticulture, urban, recreational and mixed land uses)
Should a SSMF review compliance, regulation and licensing
How could a SSMF inform the delivery of policy objectives and support future decision making?

Activity 2: Reviewing the proposed EU Soil Law and how it relates to Scottish data – Presentation by Dr Allan Lilly followed by a group discussion

Activity 3: Reviewing options for;

Baselining Scottish soils – what for and which metrics would be needed
Benchmarking – e.g. Is it appropriate to set targets or benchmarks for Scottish soils? What are the Pros and cons
Stratification of landscapes and data – how to stratify monitoring needs across different objectives and across different soil types and land cover/uses?

Activity 4: Group discussion on how we move from theory to action? Is there sufficient knowledge/data to initiate a SSMF?

Summary of workshop outputs:

Visions of a soil monitoring framework

To be a leader across the 4 nations of the UK and internationally
To have sustainable soils in perpetuity
Linking monitoring to decision making and ultimately evidence-based policy
A system to be able to respond rapidly to policy questions

Key overarching messages from stakeholders

Strengthening Scottish soil monitoring with a bespoke soil monitoring framework (SSMF) could make Scotland a ‘global exemplar’
Reviewing the EU Soil Monitoring Law demonstrates opportunities for Scotland to develop a more advanced monitoring framework that is more appropriate and beneficial for Scottish landscapes and land uses.
Creating a SSMF that can support and co-deliver across different policy objectives (E.g. Biodiversity strategy, vision for agriculture, flood resilience, SNAP3, NPF4 etc)
A bespoke SSMF would build a useable resource that supports and informs future evidence-based policy making and delivery (e.g. climate adaptation and mitigation, food security, flood resilience, water quality and air quality) and further utilises historic government funded data/platforms to provide broad scale conclusions and modelling requirements, as well as directing future research and policy needs.
We are not starting from scratch – Scotland already has a lot of data and knowledge to utilise and build upon. A monitoring framework needs to start with the soil properties and strong conceptual understanding of the soil functions.
“Let’s get started” – Do what we can with what we have and make improvements over time.

Overall Summary

There was wide support for a soil monitoring framework in Scotland that evidences why and how changes in soils may be occurring, as well as being able to better benchmark progress towards ‘thriving’ soils in Scotland. Stakeholders agreed that there is a significant amount of data already available providing a firm foundation from which to develop a SSMF, but in order to develop this further an overarching objective(s) is needed to inform the design and functionality of a SSMF. Across stakeholders present, there was a strong consistent message that the SSMF needs to be able to answer questions across scales, disciplines, sectors and land uses, as well as not letting financial constraints be a barrier for inaction (particularly when the ultimate costs of soil degradation is taken into account as highlighted by Baggaley et al., 2024). There was significant discussion regarding the types of data that may be required to inform soil health, functionality and security as well as how data could/should be translated to inform decision making i.e. how a SSMF can be designed to facilitates the translation of data into knowledge, action and wisdom. This discussion raised many questions relating to data requirements in terms of identifying appropriate soil metrics which will inform on the current state of soil resources as well as allowing the monitoring of changes in soils over time.

There were a variety of views on the use of a baseline, benchmarks and stratification. There was a view that a baseline of Scottish soils was needed even if it is imperfect. It was clarified that a baseline was just that and that it was not a “Preferred state”. Again, there was much discussion with respect to identifying which metrics/properties should be recorded in a baseline assessment and what is needed in terms of harmonisation of existing data sets to achieve the best possible baseline with the data available. Stakeholders were confident that potentially sufficient data exists to derive one, particularly through the national soil surveys (NSIS1 and NSIS2) and monitoring of forest soils (e.g. Forest soil sustainability, BIOSOIL) but that there is a lack data for soils relating to urban/suburban and recreational soils. However, it was highlighted that NSIS 2 was carried out nearly 20 years ago (2007-2009) and so changes in soil condition may have already occurred.

There was a lot of debate about whether there should be soil targets and benchmarks set. The use of benchmarks to incentivise actions and to better monitor progress was emphasised. Conversely there was concern with respect to identifying suitable benchmarks across different soil types and land uses. This includes the dependency on soil type, land use and management practices and the challenges of what defines a benchmark for multi-functional land uses or how to incorporate potential land use change over time. Stakeholders demonstrated caution with respect to the implementation of benchmarks as it is difficult to predict and manage potential unintended consequences, knock-on effects and trade-offs that target setting could bring. Stakeholders highlighted that there is a risk that benchmarks and targets lead to an oversimplification of soils and therefore the overarching message of holistic soil (and ecosystem) health and resilience may become lost as land managers strive to accomplish specific targets set.

Stakeholders agreed that a SSMF needs to represent all soil and land use types, but that there are challenges relating to how best Scotland’s landscapes should be stratified (e.g. based on soil type, land use (or sector) and/or by management) in the SSMF. It was suggested that a tiered or modular approach may be most suitable to reflect the complexity of Scottish landscapes, allowing for simple actions to be identified from collated data/information (and support adaptive learning over time). The challenge of encapsulating changes in land use and land management within a robust statistical SSMF design was identified at the workshop. Therefore, the potential to stratify or interpretation the SSMF based on soil vulnerability was proposed.

An overarching reaction of the workshop relates to the phrase “perfect is the enemy of good” in terms of there being a consensus that a SSMF is needed/wanted by stakeholders but that current data or knowledge gaps shouldn’t be barriers preventing the development of a SSMF. There was a sense of optimism that an agreement on SSMF objectives, purpose and design (metrics included) can be made to generate a transparent work-in-progress SSMF with its implementation informing future developmental needs. A key factor in implementing a monitoring framework is the presentation of data derived from it and ensuring that information is appropriately and proportionately translated to support the needs across Scottish Government, agencies, researchers, investors and land managers.

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How to cite this publication:

Buckingham, S., and Baggaley, N. (2025) ‘Securing soils in a changing climate: A soil route map for Scotland’, ClimateXChange. http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/6006

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange

Edinburgh Climate Change Institute

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www.climatexchange.org.uk

Research completed January 2025

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/5570

Executive summary

Aims

Degraded peatlands are one of the largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Scotland. The Scottish Government has a budget of £250m to spend towards peatland restoration efforts through the Peatland ACTION (PA) programme up to 2030.

This research explored the evidence for peatland restoration costs in Scotland and examined emerging trends. It also investigated opportunities and challenges for contractors delivering peatland restoration services. We reviewed existing literature and analysed cost data compiled by SRUC from the PA programme projects supported by NatureScot funding between 2018 and 2023. We also carried out interviews with contractors. Data from other PA delivery partners post 2021 was not examined in this project phase due to time constraints.

Key findings

Observed peatland restoration costs per hectare vary significantly. This reflects a range of influencing factors, including:
- project-specific factors (e.g. site characteristics, project length)
- contractor-specific factors (e.g. firm size and history)
- background commercial conditions (e.g. inflation, funding availability, tendering processes)
- site location, baseline condition and environmental designation status.
Approximately half of the variation in unit costs between sites could not be explained by the statistical analysis, often due to noise in the data, for example:
- Differences in data recording on restoration processes, project characteristics and costs across projects within the study period
- Wider economic factors such as regional variations in labour and material costs, poor transport networks and local competition for scarce resources (see the recent SRUC Rural and Islands Insights report for evidence of this at a local scale)
- Limited local competition due to barriers to entry to the market.
There is some evidence for economies of scale i.e. larger projects have lower unit costs. The extent of such economies of scales is difficult to determine due to other differences across projects.
Statistically speaking, costs of restoration have not changed over time. The absence of such an observed time trend in restoration unit costs may simplify the use of unit costs as predicted by the model to future years.
Interview data highlighted the impact of other factors, confirming the influence of complexities and uncertainties, both real and perceived, in the tendering process. These include:
- perceived uncertainty in long-term commitment to government support for peatland restoration
- challenging tendering processes
- environmental and market conditions that add risk to a business engaged in restoration.
This is largely independent of site characteristics but impairs value for money directly by increasing the overhead costs of tendering, and indirectly by constraining the pool of willing contractors.

Improving operational delivery of peatland restoration

Estimates for restoration costs from our analysis could be useful for costings of large-scale policy programmes; the spatial approach to estimating variation in unit costs allows extrapolation at larger scale, although further work is needed to understand complex issues.
Further research into the extent to which economies of scale are present would be helpful, as would steps to improve confidence in the accuracy of reported costs and associated site characteristics.
Regional differences imply that uniform national benchmarking rates might be inappropriate, with large residual uncertainty of unit costs potentially increasing the risk of falsely rejecting projects that may deliver restoration cost-effectively.
Using standardised costs to assess projects is also problematic because a large part of variation in costs remains unexplained. Either of the options below can improve this situation.
- Give greater attention in the tendering process, in particular how that may be improved on both the demand and supply side. This would draw out true context-specific costs in a competitive market.
- Seek greater transparency around individual cost elements for an individual project bid, including overhead charges and profit margins e.g. open-book tendering with agreed percentage markups.
Supply of restoration services might be strengthened and value for money in peatland restoration increased through consideration of the following:
- Include contingency costings as part of the tendering process, to address contractors’ cost risks regarding e.g. inflation spikes in key inputs (e.g. fuel) or unforeseen site complexities.
- Commit to long-term funding of a pipeline of restoration projects. This will provide reassurance to existing and potential contractors that their investment in staff and machinery is merited.
- Ensure prompt payment upon project completion with provision for at least part payment when final inspection is delayed due, for example, to weather conditions.
- Simplify tendering procedures to stimulate supplier interest in peatland restoration work through rationalisation of information required, improved guidance and support for those tendering the work to provide better feedback.
- Continue with (well received) training support plus opportunities for mutual knowledge exchange between funders and contractors. A specific area for training is in data collection for contractors.

Strengthening future analysis

Challenges and limitations of the analysis presented in this report could be addressed by:

Exploring potential systemic differences across Peatland ACTION delivery partners by comparing the results derived from the NatureScot Peatland ACTION database with estimates generated by, for example the Cairngorms National Park and Forestry and Land Scotland.
Confirming that the process of recording spatial location and recording of restoration area based on site outlines is standardised and consistently allows linking area and location with records of restoration costs and activities over time. Verification of reported area estimates through digitization in GIS can reveal important discrepancies. Re-recording of samples of outlines for restored areas, known as restoration footprint, on the ground should be considered for comparison.

Glossary / Abbreviations table

Abbreviations

CCP	Climate Change Plan
CEDA	Centre for Environmental Data Analysis
CEH	Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
CNPA	Cairngorms National Park Authority
FLS	Forestry and Land Scotland
GHG	Greenhouse Gas
GIS	Geographic Information System
JHI	The James Hutton Institute
LULUCF	Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry
NNR	National Nature Reserves
NSA	National Scenic Areas
OS	Ordnance Survey
PA	Peatland ACTION
PCS	Public Contracts Scotland
SAC	Special Areas of Conservation
SEPA	Scottish Environment Protection Agency
SG	Scottish Government
SPA	Special Protection Area
SRUC	Scotland’s Rural College
SSE	SSE plc (formerly Scottish and Southern Energy plc) is a multinational energy company
SSSI	Site(s) of Special Scientific Interest

Glossary

Bidding	Process thorough which contractors respond to the tender by offering a budget and scale of activities they are capable of delivering within the defined scope of the project.
Complexity	Aggregate account of extent and effort required to restore a particular site. A combination of site’s location, topographic features, accessibility, peatland condition and land cover that determine the overall scales of restoration operations and thus represents a proxy for the resources (costs) required.
Contractor	Private company directly engaged in restoration activities.
Cost Database	Also: SRUC (peatland restoration) cost database; Peat restoration cost database collated by SRUC capturing main activities and costs during restoration collected as part of the NatureScot administered delivery of the Peatland ACTION Programme.
Cost-Effectiveness	A ratio of unit costs of restoration and a metric used for measurement of restoration success such as area restored or GHG abated. High cost-effectiveness means low cost for high level of benefit delivered and thus is a common way to measure value for money.
Degraded Peatland	A peatland is considered degraded if it is a source, rather than a sink of GHGs. This is due to a combination of peat draining and surface damage due to use, extraction or propagation of plant species that hinder the natural process of growth of peat moss (sphagnum).
Feasibility study	Process of determining whether it is practically possible to deliver sufficient levels of improvement in quality of a particular stretch of degraded peatland. Required prerequisite for any implementation activities.
Heterogeneity	Account of patchiness/variability of land cover on a particular peatland site. It is measured as a total length of outline of individual land cover features, i.e. water bodies, patches of forest or grasslands. Land cover heterogeneity is assumed to be linked with high site complexity from the perspective of peatland restoration.
Maintenance	Any work required on a site post-restoration such as repairs to installed features.
Monitoring	Regular assessment of a post-restoration site to collect information on the current status of peatland recovery and any evidence of success of implemented measures. Includes inspection of installed features and sampling of peat condition.
NatureScot	Previously Scottish Natural Heritage; public body responsible for advising Scottish Ministers on all matters relating to the natural heritage.
Peatland Code	Voluntary standard for UK peatland projects wishing to market the climate benefit of restoration.
Peatland Condition	Classification of current state of degraded peatlands. Classes consist of a combination of drainage status and surface cover i.e. drained grassland. Peat condition classes are used to calculate annual emission from degraded peatlands.
Peatland Restoration	A set of activities required to undertake to return a degraded peatland to its (near) natural state.
Peatland	Land is classified as peatland if within the measured boundary the peat soil profile is at least 50cm deep.
Remoteness	Remoteness of a site is an aggregate measure of its distance from population centres, access infrastructure and topographic features such as elevation.
Restoration Cost	For the purpose of this analysis, the costs of restoring a particular site represent all the labour, machinery, fuel, equipment, material and other resources used during the measure implementation phase.
Restoration measures	Individual activities undertaken on a restoration site during the project implementation phase such as installation of peat dams, bunding, moss planting or shrub removal.
Restoration Project	A complete set of activities funded within a single grant allocation. Each restoration project can consist of restoration of a single or several sites. The implementation of restoration activities can be undertaken in several subsequent or overlapping phases.
Restoration Site	A discrete patch of land on which the restoration activities take place. The area defined as a restoration site is thus equal to the area restored after the project implementation phase is concluded.
Rewetting	A collection of activities aimed at restoring the natural water content of required peatland. One of the key steps to reduce excess emissions from degraded peatlands.
Tendering	Process of publishing a call for contractors to apply for a delivery of a specific peatland restoration project and subsequently choosing a winning bid based on the set of defined criteria.

Background

A high proportion of Scottish peatlands are in a degraded state and the Scottish Government has been setting ambitious targets for peatland restoration^{^[1]}. These reflect various overlapping policy objectives, notably reductions in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) but also biodiversity enhancement and water management. Primarily via the Peatland ACTION (PA) programme supported by Scottish Government and administered by Scottish Natural Heritage (now NatureScot), Forestry and Land Scotland, and the National Park authorities, in excess of 52,000 hectares have been restored since 2012.

In February 2020, the Scottish Government announced an increase in investment in peatland restoration of more than £250 million over 10 years, aiming to support the restoration of 250,000 hectares of degraded peat by 2030, as part of the Scottish Government’s Climate Change Plan for net zero. In the Update of the Climate Change Plan, the restoration target is upheld, and it is emphasised that “[t]o deliver on the 2032 emissions reduction envelope annual peatland restoration needs to be far higher than the current 20,000 hectare annual target”.^{^[2]}

Scottish Government funding for peatland restoration is managed via the Peatland ACTION (PA) programme. This has five delivery partners: NatureScot, Forestry and Land Scotland, Cairngorms National Park Authority, Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park Authority and Scottish Water. This research examined only NatureScot projects. Harmonising data from all delivery partners was an initial ambition but considered out of scope within the time and budget available in the project. Nevertheless, cost data collated from NatureScot PA administered projects has wide coverage, geographically and in terms of restoration activities and accounts for c.70% of PA restoration.

Over 10,000 ha of Scottish peatlands were restored under PA in 2023/24, an increase in annual restoration area of 40% compared to the previous year. Despite this increase, meeting the policy ambition for peatland restoration will require significant upscaling of restoration efforts over coming years at times of continued pressure on public budgets. Value-for-money and scale of policy ambition imply a need for targeting restoration efforts where it is most cost effective, taking single (GHG emission reduction) or multiple social and environmental outcomes into account. Determining such cost-effective pathways, requires an in-depth understanding of the costs that currently underpin peatland restoration in Scotland. However, whilst variation in restoration costs across different projects are reported (Glenk et al., 2022), the causes of such variation have yet to be investigated systematically. Furthermore, despite the key role that contractors have in peatland restoration delivery (and therefore associated costs), their perceptions of the tendering and restoration process has not yet been sufficiently studied.

This report examines variation of costs of implementing restoration,^{^[3]} factors affecting contractors ability and willingness to engage in restoration, and explores barriers to scaling restoration efforts related to costs and the supply of restoration services by contractors.

The project had three main aims:

1. Which factors affect restoration costs? (Section 4)

We take a broad perspective to offer an overview that considers environmental and site conditions, factors affecting bidding of contractors and actual restoration work. The synthesis is based on a rapid review of literature discussing bidding behaviour and cost of implementing nature restoration, combined with the joint expertise of the research team. Where possible, we discuss interactions between factors and how they have been evolving over time.

2. Which factors explain variation in restoration cost? (Section 5)

We provide a data driven quantification of relationships between restoration cost and environmental and site characteristics. The analysis draws on cost data collected via the NatureScot PA funded programme^{^[4]}, which is matched with spatial information on environmental and site characteristics for statistical analysis. This provides insight into any systematic variation of restoration cost to support restoration budgeting and planning.

3. What are the opportunities and challenges for contractors in engaging with restoration? (Section 6)

We draw on interviews with contractors of restoration services selected to represent a mix of size and geographical spread. Interview notes and transcripts were reviewed to provide perspectives on prospects and difficulties faced by contractors as crucial actors for scaling of restoration efforts.

Factors affecting restoration – an overview

A brief synthesis of related literature

To identify factors affecting restoration cost, we screened relevant literature related to costs of ecosystem restoration and nature-based solutions^{^[5]}; and the factors affecting bidding behaviour of contractors.

Cost of conservation efforts, including ecosystem restoration

There is consensus in conservation literature that costs should play an important role for conservation planning, management and evaluation; they affect ‘value for money’ considerations. The efficiency of conservation spending is enhanced if funding is allocated based on considerations of cost-effectiveness, i.e., the benefit achieved relative to cost (e.g., Babcock et al., 1997; Naidoo et al., 2006; Perhans et al., 2008; Burkhalter et al., 2016; Rodewald et al., 2019; Field and Elphick, 2019). How benefits are measured is of relevance, too: counting benefits simply in terms of area or number of conservation units is associated with less efficient allocation of resources compared to measures that better reflected actual intended outcomes (e.g., biodiversity) (Engert and Laurance., 2019).

The efficiency gains of considering costs depend on the accuracy of cost predictions. This requires the development of cost projections that reflect the (spatial) variability in cost of conservation action (Burkhalter et al., 2016; Van Deynze et al., 2022), also allowing the identification of potential economies of scale (Cho et al., 2017; Armsworth et al., 2018).

Ecosystem restoration projects of all types are generally considered to be high cost, often requiring significant up-front capital investment (Sewell et al., 2016). However, costs of restoration vary greatly across contexts and locations (de Groot et al., 2013; Sewell et al., 2016; Van Deynze et al., 2022). Factors quoted to influence cost variation include the baseline level of ecosystem degradation, local infrastructure availability, type and scale of restoration, population pressure and density, the legal framework, existing land use and tenure arrangements, land value, labour costs and method of measurement (Sewell et al. 2016,). We found studies referring to complexity of restoration works, managing and protecting safe access to sites, access to labour and supplies, and other project characteristics including land cover, slope, elevation, number of sites in a project and distance between sites (Van Deynze et al., 2022).

More specific peatland restoration cost estimates for the UK and Scotland also show great variability. For example, costs per hectare vary greatly by restoration technique used (Artz et al 2018; Okumah et al., 2019; Glenk et al., 2020, 2021, 2022). A previous CXC study (Artz et al., 2019) investigated physical limitations to access to restoration sites. They focused on several factors – physical infrastructure (road network), snow days, rainfall, elevation, peat condition, drainage status and a NatureScot remoteness index. Further, Aitkenhead et al., (2021), in their mapping of peatland emission categories, provided evidence for strong regional variation in peatland conditions and levels of degradation. In an outline of a national peatland monitoring strategy, Artz et al. (2023) proposed features such as bare peat extent, topographic and hydrological connectivity, soil erosion levels, microclimatic proxies water table stabilisation such as rainfall or windspeed and changes to vegetation cover among others, as essential dimensions to monitor the potential success of restoration efforts. Previously, Artz et al., (2019) had also identified strong geographic divide in peatland conditions across Scotland and that high site fragmentation levels introduce substantial error into the estimation process.

Other studies confirm the relevance of factors including altitude and distance from roads (remoteness) (Okumah et al., 2019), and site condition (Glenk et al., 2020, 2021, 2022), pre-restoration site use and land-cover.

The conservation and restoration literature emphasises the importance of reporting cost elements (e.g. fixed & variable, capital, labour cost) instead of simply total cost (Cook et al., 2017; Artz et al., 2018). Knowledge of cost elements, ideally collected in a standardised way (Iacona et al., 2018; Artz et al., 2018), facilitates the transfer of cost estimates across sites and contexts, enhances their potential to enter decision support tools, and improves understanding of the relationship between cost and conservation outcome as spending increases or decreases (Cook et al., 2017). Lack of standardising how costs are accounted for adds to an already large variation in reported cost across projects (Sewell et al., 2016; Glenk et al., 2020).

Synthesis of papers investigating contractors’ decisions to bid

Peatland restoration is primarily undertaken by private-sector contractors who are invited to tender competitively for work. However, little research appears to have been undertaken specifically in relation to peatland contractors’ business models and factors influencing their decisions to bid for restoration projects. Nonetheless, some possible insights are offered by findings for other land-based sectors (e.g. forestry, landscaping, and civil engineering).^{^[6]} Although the analogies are not perfect, they are sufficient to identify relevant types of issues.

Common factors identified in this broader literature fall into various risk categories: client-related, project-related, contractor-related, and other (Cohan, 2018; Oo et al., 2022; Olatunji et al., 2023). The latter relate to background market conditions and government policies which apply across all contractors and projects, for example, wage and price inflation or regulatory obligations. All other things being equal, uncertainty about relative costs and/or future regulatory requirements dampen contractors’ willingness to bid for projects and/or increase quoted bid prices (Oo et al., 2022; Binshakir et al., 2023; Olatunji et al., 2023).

Client-related factors include financial and organisational reputation plus willingness to foster longer-term relationships. For example, promptness in paying, openness of administrative processes, and degree of mutual trust. All other things being equal, a reliable client with simple(r) bidding processes and a willingness to share project information plus commit to a pipeline of work is more likely to receive bids, and at lower prices (Spencer, 1989; Oo et al., 2022; Binshakir et al., 2023; Olatunji et al., 2023).

Project-related factors essentially relate to the size and complexity of projects (and hence overlap with the site-specific factors noted above). For example, larger projects generally benefit from economies of scale and simpler projects have less risk of encountering unforeseen problems. Hence, all other things being equal, simpler and larger projects are more likely to attract bids, and at lower unit prices (Oo et al., 2022; Binshakir et al., 2023; Johansson et al., 2023; Kronholm et al., 2023; Olatunji et al., 2023).

Contractor-related factors relate to the capabilities and confidence of individual firms. For example, prior experience with similar projects, availability of relevant staff and machinery, and sufficient cash-flow. All other things being equal, a contractor is more likely to bid for a given project if they are familiar with the type of work required and either already have the necessary staff and machinery or are sufficiently confident to invest in additional capacity (e.g. perceive a good chance of follow-on work). Confidence to bid may also reflect the anticipated degree of competition from other contractors and perceived fairness of (client-related) bidding processes. For example, the likelihood of a rival bid by a competitor being viewed as strong and/or favoured may discourage bidding (Cohan, 2018; Spencer, 1989; Oo et al., 2022; Binshakir et al., 2023; Johansson et al., 2023; Kronholm et al., 2023; Olatunji et al., 2023).

Implications for costs

Given that all factors identified above are likely to vary across different projects, clients (e.g. funding bodies), contractors and time-periods, it would be expected that observed unit costs (e.g. per ha) will display significant variation. This is confirmed by previous analysis of peatland restoration costs across Scotland (Okumah et al., 2019; Glenk et al., 2020, 2021, 2022). For example, Glenk et al. (2022) report overall median costs of £1025/ha across 158 completed projects but with a standard deviation of £4328/ha, and also show that medians for different types of projects vary between £939/ha and £1778/ha.

Reported costs for other types of ecosystem restoration also show significant (>40%) variation. This is largely attributed to differences in project scales and complexity, including administrative processes, but also to a lack of standardisation in cost reporting. Econometric analysis of the determinants of cost variation typically struggle to explain all such variation (King and Bohlen, 1995; Keating et al., 2015; Knight et al., 2021; Van Deynze et al., 2022).

Likely factors affecting peatland restoration cost

The findings from the available literature are consistent with anecdotal evidence gleaned previously by members of the research team and of the Steering Group. As such, it is possible to hypothesise the types of factors likely to affect peatland restoration costs, to guide (but not dictate) issues to explore through statistical analysis of secondary data and through discussions with contractors.

We identified a wide overview of potential factors affecting restoration costs across sites and at a given point in time (Appendix Table A4.2). There are potential relationships between factors and restoration costs, for example, costs per hectare are likely to fall as project size increases and overhead cost elements can be spread more thinly. However, costs per hectare are likely to increase with severity of baseline degradation (e.g. proportion of site with eroded or bare peat) as the restoration effort required increases. Similarly, more remote sites and sites with more complex mosaics of features may also be relatively more expensive per hectare.

The issue is complex and factors may confound each other. For example, economies of scale effects may not be immediately apparent if larger sites also happen to be more remote and/or more degraded.

The statistical analysis relied on the cost data already collated by researchers of SRUC into a suitable database from PA NatureScot data, although inconsistencies in reporting over projects and the study period (2018-2023) presented challenges. Specific metrics for characterising projects may include various biophysical indicators (e.g. area, location, topography) as well as baseline condition and access conditions affecting which type and density of restoration techniques is cost-effective.

We understand that PA delivery partners differ in their approach to profiling projects for tendering with potential implications for a full analysis of reported cost. For example, the Cairngorms National Park Authority (CNPA) has a model to translate complexity into labour and machinery days necessary for restoration, providing options for adjustments of typical rates in the process. This approach makes intuitive sense given that many site-specific factors affecting cost are related to complexity (Appendix Table A4.2). However, pre-characterization of complexity of restoration via aerial photography is time consuming and may be challenging to apply at scale. This may change in the future, for example employing machine learning mapping tools to assess drainage and erosion features that provide indication for restoration complexity (Macfarlane et al., 2024).

In addition, background changes over time may affect all projects, including advances in restoration techniques (Appendix Table A4.3). For example, inflation increasing the costs of key inputs (e.g. fuel) but also, potentially, innovation and experience reducing unit costs. Dynamics of supply and demand for restoration services may affect unit cost of restoration and also change over time. For example, contractors of restoration services may become more experienced and thus efficient over time. However, whether this impacts on unit costs depends, among other things, also on the level of competition that contractors face.

In addition to the statistical analysis of reported cost data, more qualitative insights can be gained through interviews with contractors undertaking restoration activities on-the-ground. This offers an opportunity to confirm the relevance of factors identified for statistical analysis. It also offers an opportunity to explore other factors not included in the cost database.

For example, contractors’ willingness to bid and quoted prices for particular projects may be affected by their capacity and experience (e.g. number of diggers, work on similar sites previously), but also by alternative income-generating opportunities (e.g. other civil-engineering work). Moreover, it may also be affected by (perceived) complexity and fairness of tendering processes, including the (perceived) likelihood of bidding successfully (i.e., whether tendering is worth the effort).

Such issues can be explored through discussion with contractors using semi-structured interviews. Whilst a range of different types of contractors (e.g. varying by size, location and experience) can be interviewed, results should not be treated as statistically representative but rather as illustrative cases of the types of factors influencing contractors’ engagement with peatland restoration.

Conclusion

Peatland restoration costs are influenced by a range of factors, including:

project-specific factors (e.g., site characteristics, project length),
contractor-specific factors (e.g. firm size and history), and
background commercial conditions (e.g. inflation, funding availability, tendering processes).

These factors vary across different projects, clients (e.g. funding bodies), contractors and time periods, leading to great variation in observed unit (e.g. per ha) costs. Lack of standardising how costs are accounted for further adds to this already large variation in reported cost across projects. Systematic analysis of the factors to identify variation and evidence collected directly from contractors are needed to gain in-depth understanding.

Explaining variation in restoration cost

In this section we use information entailed in the SRUC cost database, which is compiled from NatureScot Peatland ACTION grant application and final reporting forms (see Section 5.1). We combine data in the SRUC cost database with publicly available spatial data to determine how geography, climate, peat condition, land use and site designation (SSSI etc.) are associated with restoration costs. The main output of the work reported in this section is a statistical model which attempts to explain variation in the restoration cost per hectare across completed projects.

The model results can be used to understand systematic relationships between restoration costs and site characteristics (e.g. access, topography, land use) that vary spatially. Findings may provide answers to questions such as ‘typically, is restoring peatland under grassland or forested land more or less expensive?’; or ‘is there a trend for restoration to be more expensive in one region compared to another?’. Answers to such questions may provide insights on how peatland restoration in Scotland could be delivered more cost-effectively. The model may also be used for to derive estimates of costs associated with expanding restoration across Scotland, for example as part of a cost-benefit analysis. We also highlight gaps in knowledge and highlight areas for review and further research that could make this type of analysis more accurate.

Methodological approach: cost data analysis

The SRUC cost database (see Glenk et al., 2022 for an overview) contains detailed information on project costs and activities, and in its most recent form originates from 289 final project report forms of NatureScot PA administered restoration projects covering a period from April 2016 to March 2023. Due to issues with unreliable historic data contained in the forms (see 5.2.4), only 229 of the 289 final observations for a period between April 2017 to March 2023 were complete and sufficiently reliable to be used in the analysis. Full details of the methodology, including limitations of the SRUC database, are given in Appendix A5.

Cost of restoration of a particular peatland site is here defined as the sum of all expenses within the project implementation phase. This includes all the measure-related costs (labour, material, fuel, equipment/machinery), mobilisation costs, project management and monitoring costs (within implementation phase) and other necessary work not directly attributable to restoration measures, such as changes to access infrastructure, site boundaries/fences, location-specific biodiversity protection measures or livestock/wildlife management/exclusion. Cost estimates exclude costs associated with feasibility studies, bidding and grant application process, any pre-restoration site-specific expenses, post-restoration monitoring and maintenance or loss of income due to limited use of the site post-restoration. These non-implementation costs are excluded because they are not part of the contractor tendering process and relate to a different set of activities. In addition, many sites do not yet have a lengthy period of reporting of post-implementation costs.

A statistical model to infer the cost per hectare of a site in the SRUC cost database based on 37 explanatory variables was developed to determine which variables significantly impact on cost. Spatial variables were extracted from several maps based on the location of the restoration project under the assumption that the sites were perfect circles of an area equal to that reported in the SRUC cost database. Spatial variables used to infer cost include rainfall, peat condition, peat depth, pooled-biogeographical-zones. Various configurations of the model were tested (i.e., different explanatory variables, different units of measurement), but the model presented is the best in terms of statistical test performance (see Appendix A5 for more details). A full list of variables used in the model can be seen in the Appendix Table A5.1. and a more detailed description of the data extraction and statistical model can be found in Appendix A5.

Figure 5.1 displays the geographical distribution of projects considered in the analysis across what we refer to as ‘restoration zones’ (Appendix Table A5.4). It is important to note that Figure 5.1 is not a representative map of PA restoration activity. The eight restoration zones were created by pooling the original 21 ‘biogeographical zones’ for the ease of interpretation. The original biogeographical zones, also referred to as ‘Natural Heritage Zones’ represent discrete regions based on similarities in topography, climate and the composition of biological community. Sites within a restoration zone are expected to have similar environmental and geographical features and thus a similar foundation for peatland restoration.

Results of cost data analysis

Descriptive data overview

After removing entries with obvious reporting errors (totalling 60 entries), the average cost per hectare (2020-£/ha) of restoration is £1,550/ha. However, there is a large variation in unit cost. To illustrate this: the unit cost at the 5^th percentile is £191/ha, while the unit cost at the 95^th percentile is £4,483/ha, Appendix Table A5.6.

Therefore, using an overall average cost per hectare to estimate costs of future restoration projects is not advised and further information about the site is required to infer variation in cost per hectare. The average restoration cost per hectare in each restoration zone shows that, all else equal, restoration in the Flow Country was least costly while restoration in the Central Belt was most expensive (Figure 5.2).

On average, 22% of sites were classified as ‘Near Natural Bog’ in the UK LULUCF Inventory (Appendix Table A5.5), and the largest area of restored peatland was classified as ‘Near Natural Bog’ at 32% of the area restored, for the sites considered in this study (Appendix Table A5.5). However, according to information provided by the NatureScot Peatland ACTION team only 3.8% of restored peat bog is near natural bog. It is likely that the ‘circle method’ (Appendix Figure A5.1) for calculating the area of restored peatland and/or the inaccuracy of the peat condition map used in the inventory may cause errors in our calculations.

Size class	Interval (ha)	Average cost (2020£/ha)
1	[0-10]	2375.773
2	[10-25]	1478.852
3	[25-40]	1,344.1
4	[40-85]	1,487.4
5	[85-578]	933.5

Table 5.2: Sites categorised into area classes of equal number of observations (N=46 and N=45 for Size class 5) and their average restoration cost per hectare.

To analyse the relationship between site area on costs per hectare, the sites were distributed equally to size-classes based on spatial area. The average unit costs for sites in the smallest area category were approximately three times as high as the ones in the largest area category, Table 5.2, pointing to the possibility of economies of scale (see Appendix A5.3 for an explanation and illustrative example related to peatland restoration).

These averages, however, need to be interpreted with caution due to the nature of calculation of costs per hectare (total site costs divided by total site area) and confounding factors, i.e., other factors co-vary (in our data) with size. The suggestion that decreased unit cost associated with larger site size in the data is due entirely to economies of scale could therefore be misleading. For example, a high proportion of larger sites are grassland sites rather than bare peat sites, meaning that their lower per ha costs may partly reflect their scale but may also partly reflect the relative ease of restoring grassland rather than restoring bare peat.

This was evident in the cost database, where we find that the largest sites (N=6 representing 17% of the restored area; site area >380ha) had none of the complex restoration activities such as mulching, stabilisation, felling and sphagnum transplanting (one notion of site-complexity). Therefore, it was difficult to determine if a large site was cheaper per hectare due to economies of scale, or because it required less complex restoration activities; both explanations are likely responsible for the observed decrease in cost per hectare with increased site area.

Statistical model results: drivers of spatial variation in cost per hectare

The results provide a good overview of the spatial drivers of restoration cost but may mask any interactions between variables. The statistical model (log-linear) helps us unpick all the variables that are driving cost for a site and determine features that are making sites more or less expensive (Appendix Table A5.7). The model explained 52.0% of the variation in cost per hectare amongst the 229 sites used in this study. After accounting for the number of variables (37) used in the model relative to the number observations (Adjusted R-squared), the explained variation was 42.4%, which compares favourably to other studies (Van Deynze et al., 2022). The unexplained part is attributed partly to noise in the reported data (e.g. errors in forms and in data entry) and to unobserved influences on costs – both of which reflect some of the limitations of the data collection process. However, it should be noted that it is unrealistic to expect 100% explanatory power on any statistical model: neither is the underlying relationship between different factors often known sufficiently to specify it perfectly in modelling terms nor are all possible data available to populate a perfect model.

Figure 5.3 displays all the variables considered as having an influence on cost per hectare, and the amount that they are predicted by the statistical model to change costs per hectare^[7]. Variables right of the red dashed line increase costs and those left of the dashed line decrease costs. Here we discuss variables which we are almost certain (‘significantly’) to affect cost per hectare according to the available data, i.e. those in green in Figure 5.3 as well as variables we initially expected to drive unit cost.

Year of funding

We expected that cost per hectare would vary across time (Appendix Table A4.3). However, the year in which the funding was granted is not statistically significantly explaining variation in costs. Since the costs are deflated, the data suggests that peatland restoration costs have changed over time in line with inflation. However, mostdata points were unreliable before 2017 and the reliability of data increased after 2019, which leaves only a six-year time period to be investigated here. This then limits conclusions in regards of time trends.

Nevertheless, those interested in time trends may inspect a descriptive analysis of area of restoration sites, restoration measures, land cover and regions over time for the study time period (2018-2023, Appendix 5.4).

Regions

For the pooled biogeographical zones, the lowest restoration unit costs, once all other factors such as forestry land use are controlled for, are reported for the Flow Country (which is used as a reference point in the statistical model and hence does not show up in Figure 5.3). Costs per hectare are significantly greater for sites in all other regions. Note that this applies after controlling for all other factors considered in the model. The restoration zones with the greatest restoration costs per hectare are:

The Isles: On average, log-cost per hectare is 2.1 times greater to restore a site in this region than in Flow Country. The high costs may reflect a mix of greater costs (e.g. fuel and haulage costs) on islands. Furthermore, the limited supply of contractor services on specific islands and their need to travel long distances and potentially transport the heavy machinery by ferry are potentially important factors.
Argyll: On average, log-cost per hectare is 1.4 times greater than for the Flow Country. The complexity of terrain and remoteness to some extent overlaps with The Isles, and thus similar challenges might be expected.
Central & Northern Highlands: log-cost per hectare restored is 1.3 times higher than in the Flow Country. The hilly terrain adds complexity due to more difficult access and environmental conditions in which the restoration needs to take place.

The availability of contractors in different restoration zones may also explain the regional differences (see Section 6 and factors related to demand and supply of contractors in Appendix Table A4.3.) ^[8].

Peatland condition classification

The proportion of peatland in certain condition categories affects restoration costs. In general, sites with lots of peat classified as ‘grassland’ are cheaper to restore, Figure 5.3. We hypothesize that this is because the land is more homogenous and because the grass is protecting the underlying peat from erosion. Therefore, it is more likely that the restoration activities required will be cheaper, such as drain blocking. It may also be that grassland areas have more favourable access conditions that reduce costs.

In contrast, sites with large proportions classified as ‘eroded bog’ increase the restoration cost. This is likely due to the complexity and raised cost of restoration activities to restore eroded bogs, e.g., hag reprofiling and sphagnum moss transplants. The proportion of the site with peat classified as ‘forest’ has the greatest positive effect on cost per hectare amongst Inventory peatland condition categories. We expect that this is due to the cost of felling, and the associated removal of stumps and possibly mulching, before restoration activities can begin. This finding is in line with earlier analysis presented in Glenk et al., (2022).

Site designation

Each site designation is self-reported and model results can be interpreted as the effect of a particular reported site designation, keeping all other designations the same. If a site reports SSSI designation, the log-costs per hectare are 80% higher than without it, Figure 5.3. This could be tied to careful operation on-site and risk of downtime through presence of important wildlife. The national scenic area (NSA) designation has the opposite effect on costs. If a site falls into this category, the log-costs per hectare are 69% lower. This effect might be the result of better access to scenic areas and overall better pre-restoration site conditions and management. Further work is required to understand the influence of this factor.

Site use

Like site designation, site use is a self-reported category, and each site could have several reported uses. The model results for each site use are interpreted as the effect of a particular reported site use, keeping all other reported site uses the same. Forestry reported as a site use dramatically increases restoration costs per hectare. On a hectare basis, sites that are used for grazing are cheaper to restore than those that are not used for this purpose, Figure 5.3. This is in line with ‘forest’ and ‘grassland’ peat condition categories discussed above (5.2.2.3). Although the effect is less certain (i.e., not significant), costs per hectare of sites self-reported as ‘field sports’ (i.e., shooting grouse) tend to be lower. We expect this is due to the good access on such sites.

Average rainfall

In general, sites with a greater average yearly rainfall rate are associated with lower cost per hectare. This could be due to various reasons, such as comparatively higher water tables that might imply healthier peatland and thus less complex restoration activities.

Statistical model results: summary

The statistical model allows us to explain c.52% of the variation on per hectare peatland restoration costs.
Site location within restoration zones and specific categories of peat condition, site use and site designation are significant predictors of variation of costs per hectare of peatland restoration.
Of these factors, the geographical area that the site is in is the largest driver of cost per hectare with significantly greater values on the Isles, and significantly lower values for the Flow Country, after accounting for other factors.
Forestry, both as a site use and a peat condition category, has a strong effect on overall costs due to complexity of activities related to forest removal^{^[9]}.
High levels of peatland erosion are linked with greater per hectare restoration costs.
Presence of floodplains/surface water on site, NSA designation and grazing, or peat covered by grassland all significantly reduce site restoration costs per hectare.
On average, larger sites have lower unit costs (£/ha) than smaller sites. We attribute this to a combination of economies of scale and a tendency for larger sites to be associated with relatively less complex and thus cheaper restoration activities.

Main limitations of the analysis

While the explanatory power of our analysis lies within expectations for this type of study, it is important to note sources of ‘noise’ and data uncertainty. Apart from potential issues with data entry and collation into the SRUC cost database, a major source of uncertainty is related to large variation in detail and rigour of reporting of the restoration process via application and reporting forms. Several reports are missing crucial details making them invalid for further analysis. It is important to point out that such issues primarily arise for older sites in the SRUC cost database, and that reporting forms have been adapted several times over the study period to accommodate insights as the PA program evolved within NatureScot.

Each PA project that has been granted funding by NatureScot can be identified via a grant reference number. Thus, the sites that have been restored within the same restoration grant share the same reference number. However, throughout the duration of restoration, the definitions of sites often change, in part reflecting adjustments to initial restoration plans made throughout a project. Differences concern both the number of sites within a grant, and the area of identified sites can both increase or decrease based on what is currently considered feasible/priority. Therefore, the information detailed in project application forms can only be compared to final forms if these changes were sufficiently documented. Likewise, it was sometimes not possible to link past restoration grants to more recent grants on a specific area of peat. We recommend using the same grant reference codes for additional funding or encoding previous grant codes into new grant reference codes so that previous funding can easily be traced back to new funding for the same overall restoration area.

Inconsistencies of grant reference numbers and site IDs between the SRUC cost database and PA spatial data meant that it was impossible to easily link spatial site outlines to the cost data base. Consequently, we manually “triangulated” matches between sites in the SRUC cost database and sites in the spatial data for restoration from NatureScot PA, which was both time consuming and without guarantee of being free of error.

Due to unavailability of geospatial data for all sites in the SRUC cost database considered for analysis, we assumed that each site was a circle of the reported restoration area around a central point which reduces accuracy. According to NatureScot, spatial data has now a site ID field and the final report document has also this site ID field with cost associated, which should facilitate similar analysis of variation in restoration cost per hectare in the future. Furthermore, moving to digital reporting so that spatial information and cost data can be entered into the same data portal may reduce errors in site identification and matching of cost and spatial data. Due to a lack of a standardised methodology for the calculation of a total area of a restoration site, over time of study (2018-2023) and across restoration sites in the SRUC cost database, the account of area restored provided in the reporting form can be only treated as approximate.

Sites for which the reported areas were missing, unclear or otherwise impossible to work with were removed from the analysis. The format in which the type, unit and (unit or total) cost of restoration measures is reported also varies as reporting forms were updated over the years; and depended on preferences and reporting efforts invested by grantees. For example, the installation of wave dams has been reported either as the total number of individual dams, the total length of all the drains that were dammed, or the total area covered by the specific type of dams. Wave dams also feature only in later editions of application and reporting forms. Such issues with reporting complicate measure-specific analysis of restoration cost. For example, differences in units in which measures are reported make judgment on measure intensity in a restoration site challenging if not impossible. A more technical description of the limitations in the analysis can be found in the Appendix A5.1.5. An account of challenges regarding information used for collating an earlier version of the SRUC cost database is also included in Glenk et al. (2022).

Conclusions

For costings of large-scale policy programmes, and in the absence of more robust alternatives, our model might be used to provide upper and lower bounds for restoration costs. The use of mostly spatially explicit variables in the statistical model facilitates extrapolation at larger scale. Accepting important caveats regarding the analysis (related e.g. to consistency of recording of cost within SRUC cost database and the proximate approach to deriving spatial variables from reported area), information on variation in unit cost could be combined with spatially explicit restoration pathways to derive baseline estimates of expected costs of large-scale policy implementation and related uncertainty. Such estimates could for example be combined with benefit estimates of peatland restoration in a cost-benefit analysis.
Statistically speaking, costs of restoration have not changed over time. The absence of such an observed time trend in restoration unit costs may simplify the use of unit costs as predicted by the model to future years.
Prior to extrapolation of unit cost estimates for large scale policy appraisal, further research is needed to assess the extent to which economies of scale are present. This could be combined with further efforts to improve confidence in the accuracy of reported costs and associated site characteristics.
Because of the great degree of variation and the relatively large degree of unexplained variation in unit costs, the statistical model should not be used for appraisal of individual projects (as opposed to large scale policy programmes). However, there are potential implications of the unexplained variability for the practice of using standardised costs to assessing projects and benchmarking. Given the large degree of unexplained variability, greater flexibility in appraisals of cost should be offered. In this regard, for example, our model points to a need for accommodating for larger costs on the Isles.
There has been great progress in harmonising cost and area reporting for projects, especially since 2019. Based on challenges in linking the SRUC cost database with spatial data on NatureScot Peatland ACTION administered projects for the study period, a review of the methodology for recording of the following data may prove useful. This recognises that much of the points below may already be in hand:
- Costs: clear, separate categories for measure-related expenses and project management; costs identifiable at a site level and over time.
- Site outlines: precise recording of site location and dimensions. Guidance for recording outlines and areas (e.g. distance buffers around areas where restoration measures are implemented) to record area impacted by restoration has been developed. It might be worth to review that guidance is implemented consistently and enforced for all projects by Peatland ACTION delivery partners.
- Applied measures: unified accounting of units (i.e. length vs. number of dams).
- Common and unified project and site identification: ensure that the system in place allows tracking of sites throughout project lifetime and beyond.
Also, compare the statistical results derived from NatureScot Peatland ACTION projects within the SRUC cost database to the estimates generated for projects administered by other delivery partners.
- For example, CNPA uses a bottom-up approach that classifies peatland restoration needs and associated costs by complexity mapping based on aerial photography. A more detailed analysis of costs of delivery by Forestry and Land Scotland could provide additional insights into the economics of forest to bog restoration.
Verify reported area estimates in spatial data provided by NatureScot Peatland ACTION. Re-recording of site outlines (area restored/restoration footprint) on the ground should be considered and could be incentivised and/or organised via Peatland ACTION officers.

Opportunities and challenges for contractors delivering peatland restoration services

The rapid literature review (see 4.1.2) points to a knowledge gap about service providers implementing nature-based solutions. Our research partly addresses this gap with a focus on contractors of peatland restoration and their views and perceptions regarding business models, factors influencing decisions to tender and costing within tenders, and barriers and opportunities to scale business operations in the peatland restoration domain.

Methodological approach: contractor views

Eight interviews were conducted with contractors providing peatland restoration services in Scotland, primarily funded through NatureScot as the PA delivery partner (Table 6.1). Here, we define contractors as the company or individual enacting the peatland restoration. Details of the approach are given in Appendix B6, including the interview protocol (Table B6.2).

Interview notes and transcripts were reviewed to identify commonalities and points of difference in contractor perspectives of the tender process and wider factors affecting the industry. Findings are presented here around nine main themes: factors affecting tendering, alterations to tendering, costs, importance of business diversity to create resilience, consistency of funding and workflow, geographical area of work, recruitment and skills, training and increasing the restoration area.

	Participants
Size	Medium	Large	Small	Medium	Small	Large	Medium	New Entrant
Region	Main-land National	Main-land National	Main-land NE	Main-land NW	Island	Main-land National	Main-land NW	Main-land NE
Number of Operators	9	28	5	8	5	No data	8	1
Number of Machines	9	25	11	9	6	No data	6	2

Table 6.1: Study participant overview. To maintain anonymity, we remove identifiers and randomise order of appearance in this table

Results of interview analysis

Factors affecting tendering

A wide range of considerations affecting the decision to tender were mentioned by participants, including

Ease of tendering, which determined whether contractors would tender or not. This applied mainly to smaller contractors
Current workload
Capacity, although this is increased by machinery hire or sub-contracting
The accessibility of site
Whether the operations matched their machinery portfolio
One large contractor does their own formal value for money assessment to decide whether it is worth tendering

Experience of the tendering process was commonly raised as an important factor affecting the decision to tender, in line with findings from the literature (Section 4.1.2). Contractors further highlighted a number of issues with the tendering process that were leading to frustration and could pose a barrier to expanding the industry. Decision makers in administrations involved in implementing peatland restoration have some control over shaping the tendering process, thus offering potential for operational adjustments.

Transparency of the process: Contractors highlighted a need for substantiated and clear feedback.
Timeframes: knowing what is happening when and sufficiently in advance.
Content of tenders was too involved.
Public contracts tendering was perceived by smaller contractors as onerous and not always concomitant to the scale of project.
Tendering is a non-productive aspect of a business that does not favour micro and small businesses. Several contractors perceived that the complexity of tendering is a barrier to smaller contractors entering the industry.

The time spent on tendering ranged from one to five days. Most contractors indicated that they spent several days working on each tender highlighting that tendering is a significant cost to be absorbed by businesses. Where contractors were very keen on a project, they would visit the site, therefore increasing their investment in, and commitment to, the site.

Tendering success was highly variable with smaller contractors often doing jobs not requiring a full tender process. Several contractors reported low success rates with a perception of time being wasted. One large contractor reported that their success rate was around one third. Two further (well experienced) contractors related that they had not won any “Peatland ACTION” work in the last year although they did work for SSE and FLS and had won PA contracts in the past. Contrastingly, one island-based contractor related that their success rate was near 100%. For those reporting low levels of success, this was understandably leading to frustration.

“Do I want to put good money and time toward chasing peatland action work? Right now we will dabble where we think it’s appropriate, but I’d rather put time and effort into chasing work that will actually go somewhere.” (A4)

Contractors generally regarded the tendering process as overly complex and inefficient, requiring a level of information which could be out of proportion to the value of contracts. A particular problem raised was a lack of standardisation in both the information requested and the format required between different organisations, which increased the amount of time required to respond to each. Even those contractors who had built capacity in tendering through dedicated staff perceived that the tendering process was unnecessarily complex; one highlighted that lack of standardisation was a problem as it increased the risk that key information would be missed; another considered that complexity was a barrier to smaller contractors wishing to enter the industry . Adding to frustration around low tendering success, some contractors perceived that there was insufficient feedback provided on why tenders had been unsuccessful. While feedback on relative pricing was provided, other factors used to discriminate between tenders were rarely communicated.

“You don’t even get feedback that you can work off because everybody just goes, [the winning bidder’s] technical submission was better, and you go well, what was better about it? And they go, I’ll need to get back to you. It’s not like there’s a matrix and they go well, here’s where the other person’s scored higher.” (A5)

A perceived lack of transparency in how tenders were awarded was a key concern for one contractor in particular who considered that tendering had become “closed book” and that “it seems to be a small handful of main players who will all the contracts”. Providing an example of where a contract had been awarded to a company closely connected to the commissioning organisation they also voiced concern that contracts appeared to be being awarded without being listed on Public Contracts Scotland (PCS).^{^[10]} These points were raised as breaches in what they considered should be a fair and transparent process to ensure fair allocation of public funds.

Contractors further related that the planning and timeframes for tenders were too often uncertain, which could lead to a “feast or famine” outcome. It was further highlighted that the current funding year had been particularly unusual.

“Due to the way in which projects are being assessed and funded by Scottish Government and Peatland Action, there has been a glut of tenders recently, so I’ve probably done in the space of two months, probably submitted about 24 jobs. And you know never in the history of my working life [have I] ever seen anything quite like it, you know, in terms of a glut of workload, of a single thing.” (A8)

Some contractors also indicated that they had begun bidding strategically to account for the risk that projects ultimately would not go ahead due to funding constraints. One larger contractor related that they ran their own value for money assessment to determine whether it was worth tendering. Another mid-sized contractor similarly indicated that they were starting to consider expected cost per hectare as a factor in their decision to bid for work.

Contractor views on alterations to tendering

Framework agreements were discussed as a potential means to reduce the volume of information in tender submissions. Although easier for the commissioning organisation as they only deal with one contractor, it was considered that the approach favours contractors who have the resources to tender well. One participant raised concern that this would lead to the dominance of larger contractors, leaving the smaller, less lucrative and active part of the contract to be subcontracted to smaller contractors. Although the framework provides a simplified approach, they considered that work could be done at lower cost by directly contracting smaller contractors.

A common view amongst contractors was that restoration work should support the local economy.

“I think it’s only right if the Lewis people get the Lewis work and the Skye people get the Skye work providing they’re doing it at competitive rates” (A7)

Linked to this, one mid-sized contractor questioned whether smaller contracts could be tendered on a different basis, and offered to local contractors first as a means of developing local capacity.

“I know when we were starting up these small jobs were great for us and we even picked up a lot of like ten, twenty grand AECS schemes and they were brilliant for us and they helped us get our feet and learning how to tender for bigger work.” (A4)

A similar view was given by a larger contractor who questioned whether it may be possible to differentiate tenders and make it easier for smaller contractors to bid for the smaller jobs and allow the larger contractors to take larger jobs.

Wishing to highlight a positive example, one contractor pointed to Bidwells as an example of an efficient tender process that was easy to understand and provided a good mapping system. Another contractor similarly praised Bidwells’ efforts to streamline the tender process by maintaining key contractor information on file, reducing the volume of information that must be submitted with each tender.

Risk factors and costs

The key risk factors affecting cost quoted by participants were:

Difficulty and distance of site access: distance and accessibility affect costs in terms of additional travel time, machinery breakages and increased risk.
Winter risk, flooding and snow restrict access to sites, potentially stranding machines or requiring premature mobilisation from sites.
Activities: damming and ditch blocking were assessed as relatively straightforward to estimate, whereas hag- reprofiling was considered to be more variable.
Contractors further referred to rising costs of machinery, and wages as future drivers of costs.

Importance of business diversity to create resilience

To survive in what potentially is an uncertain environment of peatland restoration and funding, most businesses had a reasonably diversified business model, not relying too heavily on peatland restoration. Two contractors indicated that they were quite specialised, with peatland restoration accounting for more than 80% of their turnover. In some cases, they reviewed their exposure to risk and considered reducing reliance on peatland restoration. Reducing the exposure to risk from peatland contracts included working with utilities, civil engineering (dualling of the A9), estate access, hydro-schemes, footpaths, fencing, dykeing and tree planting. Many of these alternatives are easier to implement, provide more certain longer-term work, reduced risk, with less travelling and reduced ongoing costs.

Consistency of funding and workflow

Consistency of commitment to funding was important for all the contractors. Prior blips in funding reduced confidence in the industry and ultimately the amount of time committed to peatland restoration. Planning, timelines and long-term contracts could all be improved to provide a more continuous flow of work. Multiyear funding was appreciated but it was felt this needed to be more co-ordinated to create a rolling programme of work for both large and small sites.

Although progress has been made in some areas with more summer restoration, the summer gap and down time reduces the amount of restoration completed. Some contractors considered the summer gap as positive, as it gave operators a break and change of scene to alleviate the monotony of peatland restoration.

Improving the diversity of funding was considered a good idea to reduce reliance on Government funding. If Government funding was to be reduced in the future it was suggested to apply gradual tapering rather than the sudden drop that many contractors experienced when the renewable obligation was suddenly stopped for windfarm construction.

Although a few years away, an early indication of the Scottish Governments long term strategy for funding restoration post 2030 would be appreciated to signal long-term commitment to the sector.

Geographical area of work

Most contractors were willing to travel, with some Scotland based contractors working in Ireland and England. The reasons for the travel were partially to diversify the business and provide new experiences for the business and operators. Most businesses preferred to work in their local area, but inevitably not all operatives could find housing near the business base and had to travel anyway. In some cases, contractors may drive up to an hour from their home base, followed by another ½ hour transiting to the sites via an access track. Finding suitable accommodation for staff is an issue in some cases.

Recruitment and skills

Contractors highlighted the importance of rural skills for working on peatlands efficiently. A key requirement voiced by contractors was the ability to ‘read the landscape and the conditions’. Technical skills in operating diggers and machinery were important, but not as critical as knowing how to move the machine on soft ground which was harder to come by and essential to avoid accidents and bogging. Ideal candidates for recruitment were those with hill experience; “farm kids” (A1) or “ex shepherds, stalkers and gamekeepers [who have] been on the hill most of their lives” (A3).

Fortunately, in terms of operator skills it was considered that due to the video gaming industry there were plenty of competent young people who could quickly learn how to operate diggers, and this aspect is not a problem for the businesses. The key issue requiring training was once on site and reading the landscape, which requires time and perseverance.

Retention of staff, particularly younger members present problems with staff leaving for less repetitive jobs or easier working conditions in civil engineering. Businesses try to combat this by offering variability of work and location, or through benefits such as a four- day week.

It was acknowledged that a wider range of skills is now requested of operators, principally mapping and GIS skills. In the case of smaller businesses this presented problems adding to workloads and need for upskilling. One large contractor questioned whether placing additional demands on operators was the most effective way to monitor work, believing that measurement could be undertaken more efficiently by a dedicated third party. Other (typically mid-sized and larger) contractors indicated that they had invested in IT and mapping capabilities.

Peatland ACTION funded training and apprenticeships were being used and appreciated.

Increasing and using restoration capacity

In circumstances where contractors perceived there to be a funding cut, they were not considering increasing their capacity. It was accepted that over time the amount of available work would increase. Using current capacity more efficiently was the approach being taken. Most contractors did not see evidence of additional work coming forward.^{^[11]} The issue for increasing the area restored was not related to capacity.

Current capacity is underutilised due to:

Uncertainty of funding, leading to contractors looking for other work to reduce risk.
Poor work stream planning that leads to uncertainty and reduces contractor ability to plan and expand operations.
A hiatus in contract confirmation after end of March which leads to bunching of contracts, reducing capability to complete within a given timescale.
Summer working with long daylight would utilise the current capacity to restore substantially more hectares. Breeding birds are the main factor reducing or stopping restoration through the summer. Generally, restrictions on estates regards stalking seasons is now less of a problem as it is understood that by good planning both operations can coexist.
Some contractors were aware that the Peatland Code and collection of information was delaying contracts and made planning more difficult.

Conclusions

Combining the results from the data analysis and the interviews, we can draw the following conclusions on the questions posed by this research.

The interviews with contractors offer insight into the industry’s views and perceptions regarding the tendering process and further engagement with peatland restoration as a business opportunity. Below is a synthesis of findings and options that may help address identified issues.

Confidence in future funding is critical for contractors working in the industry. Unexpected reductions in funding reduce contractor confidence and may deter investment. Therefore, funding should ideally be consistent within years, based on a long-term commitment to peatland restoration post 2030 that reflects the importance of restoration to address the twin climate and biodiversity crises. Interest and trust between funder and contractors may also be strengthened if information on how peatland restoration is funded post 2030 involved contractors at a very early stage.
The tender process and its transparency were factors that concerned all contractors. Current tendering processes were considered to favour larger contractors with specific staff to respond to tenders. The amount of information required, whether the information was used and the ability to receive meaningful feedback were all factors affecting contractors’ willingness to tender. A review of tenders and information required and how that is achieved would encourage a wider range of contractors to engage and tender. Such a review may focus on simplification and proportionality. Consideration might be given to whether basic tendering information could be submitted on an annual (rather than project) basis to stop repetition of effort. A review might also include guidelines for providing substantiated post tender feedback, as several respondents were unclear on how to improve future tenders. Improved feedback could lead to less contractor comeback and a greater willingness to tender.
Underlying the contractor conversations was that they seek to provide good value for money whilst making a profit in a highly variable environment. All the contractors interviewed valued their reputation and wanted to produce quality restoration. Clearly, tendering requires a balance between bureaucracy and accountability. However, a degree of pragmatism is necessary in light of the urgency for action to counter the twin climate and biodiversity crises. Consequently, the amount of information required as part of the tendering process should ideally be concomitant to the scale of work.
Access to sites was seen as a key factor influencing the decision to tender (and also the cost of restoration). Poor and long-distance access increases both costs and risk. The purchase of specialised machinery to carry crews to the work site is required and the additional transit time reduces the length of the working day. In addition, poor and rough access results in machinery breakage and costly down time. To improve access conditions, in future any access granted under planning permission could allow for neighbours to use the access for the purposes of land management. There are cases of adjacent road standard tracks to sites that could not be used as they were on neighbouring land. Further considerations might include improving affordable rural housing to increase rural workers and reduce unsustainable travelling.
Concerns were raised about consistency of funding and projects across the year. Peatland restoration generally has a short window of operation in the autumn, winter and early spring. This is further shortened due to heavy snow. Historical and current precedents of cuts in funding have made contractors very wary. Contractors suggested that diversified funding may help this situation. In response to this, options to assist contractors should be explored to identify and pursue diversified funding sources to reduce risk and increase contractor confidence.
One opportunity to diversify funding sources lies in improved coordination of environmental projects. Currently there appears little or no coordination of environmental projects. With coordination, peatland restoration contracts could seamlessly run into river restoration contracts. Likewise, Scottish Water have many long-term infrastructure projects that could fill gaps in contractor work. Thus, a more continuous flow of conservation work could be achieved through improved planning and coordination of work across the land-based sector to better integrate peatland restoration contracts with, for example, river restoration and Scottish Water projects.
Anecdotal evidence suggests that birds are less disturbed by consistent on-site presence than is recorded in scientific literature. A review of bird disturbance policy based on scientific evidence may thus help reducing down time and reducing uncertainty when tendering. To further reduce perceived uncertainty for contractors, low altitude contracts might be retained to cover periods of long-lasting snow.
To stimulate investment, there is potential for interest free government backed loans for startups/early growth businesses. Consistency of projects would enable more assured payback of finance. In this regard, it might be worth to explore suitability of existing schemes and further opportunities to ease access to interest free government backed loans for startups/early growth.
Training and apprenticeships for delivery of restoration works are of high value to individuals and businesses interested in entering the market, and should continue to be financially supported.

Conclusions

The research findings presented in this report reflect a rapid synthesis of the literature and our research team’s own expertise plus statistical analysis of cost data compiled from NatureScot administered Peatland ACTION (PA) projects and qualitive interviews with peatland restoration contractors. We have identified a multitude of factors affecting peatland restoration costs and contractors’ decisions to tender for restoration work.

Whilst information on peatland restoration costs is available for NatureScot projects funded through the PA programme, the causes of apparent variation in costs have not yet been analysed systematically. Our statistical model, combining cost data with project site characteristics, is able to explain c.52% of observed variation. This is in-line with attempts to model cost variation in analogous sectors (e.g. other ecosystem restoration, landscaping).

Our analysis does not identify a time trend, but highlights that there are regional differences in cost, with higher costs to be expected for the Isles. Site features indicating greater complexity of restoration action, such as forest land cover and high levels of erosion, are associated with greater restoration cost. While restoration cost per hectare decreases as size of restored sites increases, our data does not allow us to fully and causally attribute this effect to economies of scale alone. This requires further investigation.

Overall, our analysis points to a need to recognise that there is large degree of unexplained variation in unit costs while unit costs vary considerably across sites in our data. This has implications for the relevance of standardisation in assessing projects and developing benchmarking of costings. For example, regional differences imply that uniform national rates might be inappropriate, while large residual uncertainty regarding unit costs would increase the risk of falsely rejecting projects that in fact deliver restoration cost-effectively.

However, although unexplained variation in costs may reflect genuine unobserved causes, our analysis was also hampered by several potential data imperfections. For example, the precise shape and size of individual projects is subject to some uncertainty, which may lead to errors in characterising sites. Equally, across the study period (2018-2023), categorisation of different types of cost is not necessarily consistent across all projects nor are different phases of the same project necessarily recorded consistently across different funding periods. Efforts to improve data quality have already been instigated. Nevertheless, it might be worth to clarify inconsistencies in older data, and confirm that harmonised data collection (site specific data on activities, cost, location, area, consistently recorded over time) is in place to improve the accuracy of future analysis.

Contractors are service providers who implement restoration work on the ground. The quality of their work is therefore key to restoration success. Despite their important role in the restoration process, there is a paucity of literature on motivations and barriers to contractors to tender for and enter ecosystem restoration work (including peatland restoration), and on factors that affect costs and long-term viability of restoration work to businesses. We interviewed contractors of different size and varying geographical range of operation. We identify recommendations that will affect cost and quality of delivery and thus enhance value for money of peatland restoration delivery in Scotland.

Specifically, we point to a need for a streamlined tendering process that is simplified and proportionate to scale of work, and that provides meaningful post-tender feedback. Fostering reliable and strong relationships with contractors is important, as is mitigation of short-term (e.g. mitigating risk of interruptions to work) and longer-term (e.g. related to funding situation) business risks. Cash flow availability might be improved through more efficient processing of payments to contractors, although delays may be caused by agents and not the funding institutions (PA delivery partners). Business risk may also be reduced through offering opportunities to diversify funding sources, for example via improved planning and coordination of work across the land-based sector. Training opportunities are appreciated, but barriers to entering peatland restoration as a service provider would benefit from enhanced support for start-up, both in terms of e.g. interest free capital provision and tailored advisory support.

All of the above aspects affect costs and quality and thus value for money of peatland restoration delivery. A revision of the modus to deliver peatland restoration using public funds across Scotland should be embedded in a long-term commitment to peatland restoration post 2030 to attract investment and offer business perspective. Such a commitment to consistency of funding is needed to reflect the importance of peatland restoration to a world experiencing twin climate and biodiversity crises.

Acknowledgements

We like to thank the study participants for offering their time and valuable insights. We also thank the members of the project steering group for input throughout the project. Further, we would like to acknowledge the Peatland ACTION Data & Evidence team and the Peatland ACTION Funding team at NatureScot for their active support of this work. The collation and preparation of peatland restoration cost data for use in the analysis presented in Section 5 of this report was support of the Scottish Government, as part of the Environment, Natural Resources and Agriculture (ENRA) Strategic Research Programme 2022-2027, project JHI-D3-2 CentrePeat; and the project Wet Horizons (Horizon Europe GAP-101056848).

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Appendices

Appendix A4 Factors affecting restoration – review and synthesis

Web search terms concerning cost-effectiveness of peatland restoration
(“restoration” OR ”nature-based solution”) AND (“cost-effectiveness” OR “cost”)
Web of Science Search 1: broad peatland terms, contactor terms narrowed
Peatland Terms	TS = (peat OR peatland OR bog OR restoration OR rewetting OR “ecosystem restoration” OR “nature- based” OR “nature based”) AND
Contractor Terms	TS = (contractor OR supplier OR worker OR workforce) AND NOT
AND NOT (Non- OECD Countries)	TS = (“Afghanistan” OR “Albania” OR “Algeria” OR “American Samoa” OR “Angola” OR “Argentina” OR “Armenia” OR “Azerbaijan” OR “Bangladesh” OR “Barbados” OR “Belarus” OR “Belize” OR “Benin” Or “Bhutan” OR “Bolivia” OR “Bosnia and Herzegovina” OR “Botswana” OR “Brazil” OR “Bulgaria” OR “Burkina Faso” OR “Burundi” OR “Cambodia” OR “Cameroon” OR “Cape Verde” OR “Central African Republic” OR “Chad” OR “Chile” OR “China” OR “Colombia” OR “Comoros Congo” OR “Democratic Republic Congo” OR “Republic Costa Rica” OR “Côte d’Ivoire” OR “Croatia” OR “Cuba” OR “Czech Republic” OR “Djibouti Dominica” OR “Dominican Republic” OR “Ecuador” OR “Egypt” OR “Arab Republic” OR “El Salvador” OR “Equatorial Guinea” OR “Eritrea” OR “Estonia” OR “Ethiopia” OR “Fiji” OR “Gabon” OR “Gambia” OR “Georgia” OR “Ghana” OR “Grenada” OR “Guatemala” OR “Guinea” OR “Guinea-Bissau” OR “Guyana” OR “Haiti” OR “Honduras” OR “Hungary” OR “India” OR “Indonesia” OR “Iran” OR “Islamic Republic” OR “Iraq” OR “Jamaica” OR “Jordan” OR “Kazakhstan” OR “Kenya” OR “Kiribati” OR “Korea Democratic Republic” OR “Kyrgyz Republic” OR “Lao PDR” OR “Latvia” OR “Lebanon” OR “Lesotho” OR “Liberia” OR “Libya” OR “Lithuania” OR “Macedonia FYR” OR “Madagascar” OR “Malawi” OR “Malaysia” OR “Maldives” OR “Mali” OR “Marshall Islands” OR “Mauritania” OR “Mauritius” OR “Mayotte” OR “Mexico” OR “Micronesia” OR “Moldova” OR “Mongolia” OR “Morocco” OR “Mozambique” OR “Myanmar” OR “Namibia” OR “Nepal” OR “Nicaragua” OR “Niger” OR “Nigeria” OR “Mariana Islands” OR “Oman” OR “Pakistan” OR “Palau” OR “Panama” OR “Papua New Guinea” OR “Paraguay” OR “Peru” OR “Philippines” OR “Poland” OR “Romania” OR Russia* OR “Rwanda” OR “Samoa” OR “Sao Tome and Principe” OR “Senegal” OR “Serbia” OR “Montenegro” OR “Seychelles” OR “Sierra Leone” OR “Slovak Republic” OR “Solomon Islands” OR “Somalia” OR “South Africa” OR “Sri Lanka” OR “St. Kitts and Nevis” OR “St. Lucia” OR “St. Vincent and the Grenadines” OR “Sudan” OR “Suriname” OR “Swaziland” OR “Syrian Arab” OR “Republic Tajikistan” OR “Tanzania” OR “Thailand” OR “Timor-Leste” OR “Togo” OR “Tonga” OR “Trinidad and Tobago” OR “Tunisia” OR “Turkey” OR “Turkmenistan” OR “Uganda” OR “Ukraine” OR “Uruguay” OR “Uzbekistan” OR “Vanuatu” OR “Venezuela” OR “Vietnam” OR “West Bank” OR “Gaza” OR “Yemen” OR “Republic Zambia” OR “Zimbabwe”)
Web of Science Search 2: broad contractor terms, peatland terms narrowed
Peatland Terms		TS = (peat OR peatland OR bog OR rewetting) AND
Contractor Terms		TS = (contractor OR supplier OR worker OR workforce OR skill* OR labour OR training) AND NOT
AND NOT (Non- OECD Countries)		TS = (“Afghanistan” OR “Albania” OR “Algeria” OR “American Samoa” OR “Angola” OR “Argentina” OR “Armenia” OR “Azerbaijan” OR “Bangladesh” OR “Barbados” OR “Belarus” OR “Belize” OR “Benin” Or “Bhutan” OR “Bolivia” OR “Bosnia and Herzegovina” OR “Botswana” OR “Brazil” OR “Bulgaria” OR “Burkina Faso” OR “Burundi” OR “Cambodia” OR “Cameroon” OR “Cape Verde” OR “Central African Republic” OR “Chad” OR “Chile” OR “China” OR “Colombia” OR “Comoros Congo” OR “Democratic Republic Congo” OR “Republic Costa Rica” OR “Côte d’Ivoire” OR “Croatia” OR “Cuba” OR “Czech Republic” OR “Djibouti Dominica” OR “Dominican Republic” OR “Ecuador” OR “Egypt” OR “Arab Republic” OR “El Salvador” OR “Equatorial Guinea” OR “Eritrea” OR “Estonia” OR “Ethiopia” OR “Fiji” OR “Gabon” OR “Gambia” OR “Georgia” OR “Ghana” OR “Grenada” OR “Guatemala” OR “Guinea” OR “Guinea-Bissau” OR “Guyana” OR “Haiti” OR “Honduras” OR “Hungary” OR “India” OR “Indonesia” OR “Iran” OR “Islamic Republic” OR “Iraq” OR “Jamaica” OR “Jordan” OR “Kazakhstan” OR “Kenya” OR “Kiribati” OR “Korea Democratic Republic” OR “Kyrgyz Republic” OR “Lao PDR” OR “Latvia” OR “Lebanon” OR “Lesotho” OR “Liberia” OR “Libya” OR “Lithuania” OR “Macedonia FYR” OR “Madagascar” OR “Malawi” OR “Malaysia” OR “Maldives” OR “Mali” OR “Marshall Islands” OR “Mauritania” OR “Mauritius” OR “Mayotte” OR “Mexico” OR “Micronesia” OR “Moldova” OR “Mongolia” OR “Morocco” OR “Mozambique” OR “Myanmar” OR “Namibia” OR “Nepal” OR “Nicaragua” OR “Niger” OR “Nigeria” OR “Mariana Islands” OR “Oman” OR “Pakistan” OR “Palau” OR “Panama” OR “Papua New Guinea” OR “Paraguay” OR “Peru” OR “Philippines” OR “Poland” OR “Romania” OR Russia* OR “Rwanda” OR “Samoa” OR “Sao Tome and Principe” OR “Senegal” OR “Serbia” OR “Montenegro” OR “Seychelles” OR “Sierra Leone” OR “Slovak Republic” OR “Solomon Islands” OR “Somalia” OR “South Africa” OR “Sri Lanka” OR “St. Kitts and Nevis” OR “St. Lucia” OR “St. Vincent and the Grenadines” OR “Sudan” OR “Suriname” OR “Swaziland” OR “Syrian Arab” OR “Republic Tajikistan” OR “Tanzania” OR “Thailand” OR “Timor-Leste” OR “Togo” OR “Tonga” OR “Trinidad and Tobago” OR “Tunisia” OR “Turkey” OR “Turkmenistan” OR “Uganda” OR “Ukraine” OR “Uruguay” OR “Uzbekistan” OR “Vanuatu” OR “Venezuela” OR “Vietnam” OR “West Bank” OR “Gaza” OR “Yemen” OR “Republic Zambia” OR “Zimbabwe”)

Table A4.1: Web of Science Search Terms. Results were supplemented by forward and backward tracing of citations plus the research team’s prior knowledge of relevant references.

#	Factors	Description
Tendering process
1	Client	Type of client, payment attitude, history and reputation may impact cost and whether to bid for job
2	Ease of procurement process	Information availability and data recording requirements and length of process may impact cost and whether to bid for job
3	Expected competition	Depending on degree of (expected) competition and overall availability of (peatland or other substitute) work; can affect decision to opt out of tendering
4	Additional benefits to contractor	For example advertisement through open day, enhancing reputation and bringing in additional work through networking; may impact cost and willingness to tender
5	Amount of other (substitute) work available	May affect keenness to tender but also how challenges regarding scheduling and timing of work are costed
General project characteristics
5	Project duration	Longer project durations offer income stability and are thus considered better; increased flexibility in allocating work may reduce cost
6	Scale of project	Larger projects offer greater, more reliable work and opportunities for reducing mobilisation costs if have machines and operators available
7	Type and size of land ownership (including crofts and common grazing)	Small land ownership may be associated with more costly implementation that are not easy to mitigate (e.g. access and need for taking apportionment to enable restoration on commons). However, usually if such projects advance to tender stage, most problems have been sorted out Larger land ownership (e.g. estates) may initially offer opportunities for restoring some land at no or low opportunity cost (in terms of income forgone). Depending on type of business and business objectives, scaling of restoration within large land ownerships may be associated with increasing opportunity costs. This may, however, not affect costs of implementing restoration action.
8	Current land use on peatland to be restored and surrounding holding	Restoration costs can be affected if land use is in conflict with peatland restoration and thus there is a need for mitigation (e.g. keeping grazing activity at minimum). In some cases (e.g. grouse shooting) mitigation depends on timing of work
9	Stocking density of deer and livestock in area	Similar to #8, mitigation through keeping grazing at minimum may come at extra cost. Regarding livestock, this also depends on need for fencing and the availability of existing facilities to keep livestock off restoring land
Site location dependent factors
	facilities
10	Need for overnight accommodation	Could instantly make tendering unviable if, for example, restoration is planned for an island location with an available onsite contractor; else can be mitigated easily in most cases and factored into higher costs
11	Distance from operator base	This may affect daily travel costs, and mobilisation cost; can be mitigated by longer daily hours (e.g. 10hr working days) though this may have cost implications (as #10 above)
12	Need for on-site welfare facilities	Costed in and usually quite consistent between contractors
	access conditions
13	Challenges to access through presence of utilities, powerlines gas pipes and cables	More difficult access due to presence of utilities, powerlines gas pipes and cables can be associated with higher cost. However, typically not a problem, can be easily mitigated
14	Challenges to access through geographical location of site	If a site is very narrow, steep and/or cut off by watercourses, this complicates access; more difficult access can be associated with higher cost.
15	Challenges to access through site condition	Access to work location on a site, in terms of the length of the daily drive in to the work location, can be affected by overall site condition; more difficult access can be associated with higher cost
16	Site wetness	Special case of #15. If sites are very wet, this may imply a need for bog mats or more specialised LGP machines, adding to costs
17	Potential flooding due to fords	Adds to risk of operation and may be added to tender cost
18	Challenges to access due to adverse weather conditions (snow, storm)	Adds to risk of operation and may be added to tender cost as contingency; length of snow free period may affect timing of operations and affect cost depending on availability of other work
19	Presence of (ground nesting) breeding birds and protected species	May delay implementation and complicate scheduling of work; could be added to tender as contingency
20	Challenges to access due to prevailing weather conditions	Depending on the conditions of a site, a contingency can be added to tender/costs to account for prevailing weather conditions (e.g. very wet conditions)
21	Site use by public (e.g. for recreation)	May affect access but typically not a problem
22	Archaeological Restrictions	May affect access but typically not a problem if considered at feasibility study or project approval stage
23	Concerns about security of site	Additional costs for security and potential loss
24	Health and Safety risk of bogging	This could be considered an added risk with contingency added to tender. However, it is in practice not considered a problem
25	Restrictions on Access: Stalking/Shooting	Similar to #8. Could affect timing of work and cost depending on availability of other work
26	Site designations	Could affect access cost but typically not a problem as agreements regarding site designations are usually sorted before tender
	site characteristics
27	Altitude	High altitude sites tend to be less easily accessible. This can affect cost, through impact on general accessibility, daily travel costs (see #11), mobilisation costs, but also #18: length of snow free periods
28	Slope	Restoration of sites on steep slopes may affect cost through additional time for restoration in challenging terrain
29	Exposure	May be linked to #18 (adverse weather conditions) and #20 (prevailing weather conditions)
Site peatland condition factors
30	Complexity – Degree of erosion	May affect cost through additional time for restoration in challenging terrain; bare peat areas may require stabilisation which can be very time consuming
31	Complexity – Density of drains and gullies	May affect cost through additional time for restoration for greater densities of drains and gullies
32	Complexity – Depth of hags	Relates to #30; may affect cost through additional time for restoration in challenging terrain
33	Availability of sphagnum for reseeding	Relates to #30; and the availability of sphagnum areas that can be used for reseeding (available on site or need to import to site); easier accessibility of sphagnum for reseeding is associated with relatively lower cost
34	Complexity – Slope and hydrological connectivity – required density of dams	Relates to #28 and #31; greater slopes may require a greater density of dams. Can affect cost through increased need for material (dams) and/or work/time to install dams
35	Vegetation cover – forest	Vegetation cover may have to be removed; for forests this implies harvesting of stands, and possibly removal of stumps and brush. Removal may come at a net cost. Biomass may be mulched which may add to costs
36	Vegetation cover – shrubs	Similar to #35; depends on height/thickness/density of shrub; mulching may add costs

Table A4.2: Potential factors affecting cost per hectare of peatland restoration across sites and at a given point in time.

#	Factor	Description
1	Inflation e.g. rising wages and fuel prices	Inflation increases nominal cost over time, that is, prices for goods and services paid in a market over time. However, theoretically inflation should per se not affect real costs over time if nominal prices are adjusted for inflation. In practice, companies might add a mark up to, for example, account for risks associated with inflation. Moreover, adjustments to costs and to funding are not necessarily simultaneous nor made on the same basis, meaning that they can become misaligned. Identifying the correct rate of adjustment may be challenging. Appropriate indices may be price indices for labour and energy use in agriculture and forestry, rather than more generic consumer price indices.
2	Technological Innovation: new technologies	Innovation can lead to solutions that allow providing the same service at lower cost, or more of a service for a given budget. In the case of peatland restoration, there have been improvements over time through learning-by-doing and research into materials and approaches. e.g. construction of dams, reprofiling techniques, revegetation methods
3	Overall contractor skills and experience	Peatland restoration undertaken with the aid of heavy machinery differs markedly in the requirements for the machine operators compared to other jobs involving earth movement. Typical digger/excavator jobs involve excavation and harmonisation across a certain area with little restrictions to force applied when operating the machine. Restoration requires careful adjustments using bucket movements in all directions. It can be expected that skills and expertise gained by operators enable them to work a larger area in a given time. Such efficiency gains may be expected to reduce unit costs of restoration; however, expertise may equally attract a price premium especially if competition for skilled workers is high.
4	Conditions in related market spaces e.g. dualling of A9	Related markets offer opportunities for supplementing or substituting work on restoration projects. Work in related sectors, such as road construction or renewable energy site construction, vary across time and space and may thus affect the opportunity cost of contractors to tender for restoration with implications for cost.
5	Overall demand for peatland restoration	Increasing demand for restoration will, all else equal, increase costs, at least in the short run. However, an expected long-run increase in demand (via committed public budgets and/or private finance) may encourage an expanded supply of contracting services and exert downward pressure on costs.
6	Overall contractor capacity i.e. competition	The number of existing contractors actively tendering for the same jobs in restoration (and related markets) affects competition, with an expectation of greater competition driving costs down, all else equal.

Table A4.3: Factors affecting cost per hectare of peatland restoration over time

Appendix A5 Explaining variation in restoration costs

Appendix A5.1 Methodological approach (detailed) including data preparation and assumptions

Appendix A5.1.1 Factors included in analysis and spatial data sources

The analysis builds on the evidence review in Section 4 and previous work on understanding variation in site-specific restoration costs. For this study, the publicly available spatial data identified as potential predictors of variation in peatland restoration costs come from several sources listed in Appendix Table A5.1.

It is necessary to know location and dimensions (shape) of restored sites to be able to assign spatially explicit data to them. However, due to difficulty to reliably match many of the cost database sites with their Peatland ACTION polygon counterparts (5.2.4 ‘Main Limitations’), the site shape needed to be assumed. As all the sites selected for this analysis reported a UK National Grid location, representing a centroid for each site, and a restored site area (in hectares) was reported, we assumed that all sites were a circle of “restored area” centred at the grid location. This circle was then overlayed with the relevant spatial data and the data extracted. For example, to add the average number of ‘snow days’ expected on a site, we overlay the site circles on the HADUK grid of climate observations and extract the average snow days associated with the site. See Appendix A5.1.4 ‘Merging cost database with external data’ for full details of the methodology.

Appendix A5.1.2 Data modifications

For peatland conditions, land cover classes and biogeographical zones the variables taken from the original data sources were pooled into more general categories to increase the model’s ease of interpretation. For example, all land cover classes associated with forest were classified as one ‘forest’ category in the model, see Appendix table A5.2-A5.4 for more details.

For the costs to be comparable across all the sites, the total cost figure per site was divided by the total site area to arrive at a cost per hectare estimate. The costs have been deflated to 2020 levels using consumer price index (CPI) values from the Office of National Statistics.

Appendix A5.1.3 Multi-linear regression

We developed a multi-linear model which estimates cost per hectare of the final restored area, C, based on the spatial variables described in Table A5.1. The distribution of Cost was right-skewed due to the existence of some notably expensive sites (see Figure A5.2). In such cases it is recommended to transform the dependent variable, for example by taking its natural logarithm. We thus develop a model to predict the natural logarithm of cost per hectare C of the restoration project:

where the variables are continuous, for example ‘Average annual rainfall’ and the variables are dummy variables that take a value of one (else zero) if a condition applies, e.g. if Site Region ‘Argyll’ is associated with the site. Appendix Table A5.1 shows the list of continuous variables and dummy variables considered as well as their sources. Note that not all of the variables were included in the final statistical model (Table A5.7). Since the ‘Biogeographical zones’ are unique and cover every site (every site is in exactly one zone), we can remove one of these dummy variables from the regression and not lose any information. We choose to remove the ‘Flow Country’ and thus analysis of these results is relative to the cost of restoring sites in the Flow Country. Many prospective variables to be used in the log-linear model were likely to co-vary. To ensure there was acceptable levels of multi co-linearity in the variables used in the regression we ensured the variance inflation factors for each variable were less than 5, see Appendix Table A5.8 for the variance inflation factors of the variables used in the model. To account for the fact that multiple observations (sites) can be associated with the same grant, clustered errors for all observations derived from the same grant were calculated.

In the results, we present the coefficients associated with the variables () and dummy variables () on a graph as ‘log Cost multipliers’, along with the 25% confidence interval as error bars (Figure 5.3). For continuous variables this can be interpreted as: For every one-unit change in the variable, by what factor would you expect the log cost per hectare to change. For dummy variables, this can be interpreted as the site having this property will cause this multiplication of the log cost per hectare. Since log is monotonic, we can translate this to how the variable multiplies cost. Each variable has different units and scales, so it is difficult to compare one multiplier to another. A statistically normalised version of the plot can be seen in Figure A5.3, where magnitudes between multipliers can be compared.

Category	Class	Variable	Source
Meteorologi-cal		Average wind speed per year (m/s)	Had-UK-Grid
		Average annual rainfall (mm)	Had-UK-Grid
		Average daily temperature per year (C)	Had-UK-Grid
		Minimum daily temperature per year (C)	Had-UK-Grid
Peat Quality		Ratio of site that is bare peat	NatureScot
		Average peat depth(cm)	James Hutton Institute
	Peat Condition areas	Forest (ha)	NAEI
		Cropland (ha)	NAEI
		Extraction (ha)	NAEI
		Eroded (ha)	NAEI
		Grassland (ha)	NAEI
		Modified Bog (ha)	NAEI
		Near Natural Bog (ha)	NAEI
		Settlement (ha)	NAEI
Landscape		Land cover heterogeneity (m)	NatureScot
		Ratio of site that is floodplain/surface water	Scottish Environment Protection Agency
		Terrain ruggedness (index)	Ordnance Survey
		Average slope (%)	Ordnance Survey
		Remoteness/wilderness (index)	NatureScot
Site Characteristics	Site use (dummies)	Rough Grazing	SRUC cost database
		Forestry	SRUC cost database
		Field Sports	SRUC cost database
		Deer Management	SRUC cost database
		Biodiversity Conservation	SRUC cost database
		Other	SRUC cost database
	Site designation (dummies)	SSSI	SRUC cost database
		SAC	SRUC cost database
		SPA	SRUC cost database
		NSA	SRUC cost database
		NNR	SRUC cost database
		Other	SRUC cost database
	Biogeographical Zones (dummies)	Argyll	NatureScot
		Central Belt	NatureScot
		Isles	NatureScot
		Central Highlands	NatureScot
		East Coast	NatureScot
		Northern Highlands	NatureScot
		Southwest	NatureScot
		Flow Country	NatureScot

Table A5.1: List of variables and dummy variables used in the linear regression to estimate log cost per hectare. If the class of variables are dummy (i.e. binary) then this is indicated in the class column.

Appendix A5.1.4 Merging cost database with external data

The process of merging the SRUC cost database of NatureScot PA administered projects with other spatial data involved the following steps:

The site grid references in the cost database were converted to Easting-Northing coordinates (using standard UK coordinate reference system EPSG:27700) and converted to a GIS point shapefile (using QGIS software package version 3.16).
The circular polygon shapefiles with the centre point being the actual site centroids with a total area corresponding to the reported restored area (in NatureScot PA final reporting forms) were created within the GIS framework.
The maps containing spatial environmental information were overlaid over the circular polygon layer and cropped into the shape of the sites.
For the microclimatic variables (snow days, temperature, wind speed), topography (elevation, slope, ruggedness) and remoteness, an average value per site was calculated (for raster maps that means the total value of each variable for all raster cells in each site divided by the number of cells). For land cover categories, firstly the raster picture was converted into a vector polygon shapefile by smoothing the cell edges with a fineness down to 15 meters. A total area of each category per site vas calculated and recorded as a separate variable (for all the land cover types that a specific site did not contain the variable values were zero). The areas of each category were divided by the total site area to arrive to a ratio of the site that has the particular land cover. The total length of outlines of individual land cover features was calculated to account for terrain heterogeneity (assuming that the more patchy the site is the longer the outline of the individual features). Similarly for the peatland condition map, a total area of each site that is peatland was calculated, individual peatland condition categories were recorded and ratios per site calculated. The bare peat ratio and floodplain/surface water area ratio were calculated as a ratio of the peatland per site rather than the total area of the site. Similarly, average peat depth was considered only for peatland area of each site. Finally, sites were assigned to a biogeographical region based on the centroids’ precise location.
The data was downloaded from the GIS software into a spreadsheet and merged back into the cost database using a unique site identifier (concatenated from a unique site ID and a report type). The further steps of analysis/ model and figure construction were completed in Excel, STATA and Python packages, respectively.

Variable	Inventory categories
Forest	Forest
Cropland	Cropland
Eroded	Eroded
Modified	Modified bog
Near Natural	Near natural bog
Other	Other Peatland, Settlement
Grassland	Intensive Grassland, Extensive Grassland
Extraction	Industrial Extraction, Domestic Extraction

Table A5.2: Inventory peatland condition classes pooled into larger categories

Land Cover Categories
Woodland	Woodland fringes and clearings and tall forb stands, Broadleaved deciduous woodland, Highly artificial coniferous plantations, Mixed deciduous and coniferous woodland, Lines of trees, small anthropogenic woodlands, early stage woodland and coppice, Coniferous Woodland
Shrub	Arctic, alpine and subalpine scrub, Temperate and mediterranean-montane scrub, Temperate shrub heathland, Riverine and fen scrubs
Blanket Bogs	Raised and blanket bogs
Other	Inland cliffs, rock pavements and outcrops, Arable land and market garden, Built-up, Bare field, Windthrow, Littoral sediment (predominantly saltmarsh), Coastal dunes and sandy shores, Coastal shingle, Rock cliffs, ledges and shores, Surface standing and running waters
Mires & Fens	Valley mires, poor fens and transition mires, Base-rich fens and calcareous spring mires
Grassland	Dry grasslands, Mesic grassland, Seasonally wet and wet grasslands, Alpine and subalpine grasslands

Table A5.3: Land cover classes pooled into larger categories

Restoration Zones	Biogeographical Zones
Argyll	Argyll West and Islands
Central Belt	West Central Belt
Isles	Coll, Tiree and the Western Isles, Orkney and North Caithness, Shetland, Western Seaboard
Central Highlands	Central Highlands, Cairngorms Massif, East Lochaber, Loch Lomond, The Trossachs and Breadalbane
East Coast	North East Coastal Plain, North East Glens, Eastern Lowlands
Northern Highlands	North West Seaboard, Northern Highlands, Western Highlands
Flow Country	The Peatlands of Caithness and Sutherland
Borders	Western Southern Uplands and Inner Solway, Border Hills

Table A5.4: Biogeographical zones pooled into larger Restoration zones

Peatland Condition	Area (ha)	Percent of restored peat area
Cropland	5	0%
Other	9	0%
Grassland	108	1%
Extraction	328	3%
Forest	1711	17%
Modified Bog	1764	18%
Eroded	2860	29%
Near Natural Bog	3171	32%
All	9956	100%
Site Designation	Count	Percent of sites
SPA	22	9%
SAC	27	11%
NSA	28	12%
NNR	39	16%
Other	54	23%
SSSI	56	23%
No Designation	103	43%
Multiple Designations	53	22%
Site Use	Count	Percent of sites
Rough Grazing	76	32%
Forestry	20	8%
Field Sports	45	19%
Deer Management	110	46%
Biodiversity Conservation	92	38%
Other Use	22	9%
No use	26	11%
Multiple uses	104	44%

Table A5.5: Percentage of total area of restored sites falling into each: a) peatland condition category as defined by the Inventory peat condition map; b) Site designation, and c) Land use as reported on the final report forms for NatureScot Peatland Action.

Appendix A5.1.5 Main limitations

A major source of uncertainty is related to large variation in detail and rigor of reporting of the restoration process via application and reporting forms. Several reports are missing crucial details that make them invalid for further analysis limiting the power of studies such as this.

Each project that has been granted funding by NatureScot can be identified via a grant reference number. Thus, the sites that have been restored within the same restoration grant share the same reference number. However, throughout the duration of projects, the definitions of sites often change. This includes both the number of sites within a grant, and the area of identified sites can both increase or decrease based on what is currently considered feasible/priority. Therefore, the information entailed in project application forms can only be compared to final forms if these changes were sufficiently documented.

For deriving site area and overlay with GIS information, the circular site outline approach was chosen due to difficulty to reliably link a substantial number of the sites from the cost database with spatial data from Peatland ACTION that contains both centroids and site outlines. The grant reference numbers are often inconsistent between cost database and spatial information, and the number, area, account of applied measures and grant amounts often do not match between the information sources. Consequently, we had to manually “triangulate” matches between sites in the cost database and sites in the spatial data from Peatland ACTION, which was both time consuming and without guarantee of being free of error.

Due to a lack of a unified methodology for calculation of a total area of a restoration site, over time and across sites in the database, the account of area restored provided in the reporting form can be only treated as approximate. Sites for which the reported areas were missing, unclear or otherwise impossible to work with were removed from the analysis. As mentioned above, the site areas were in some cases also pooled together within the same project, and thus arriving at a reliable area estimate for the individual sites was difficult.

The format in which the type, unit and (unit or total) cost of restoration measures is reported also varies as application and reporting forms were updated over the years, and depending on reporting efforts invested by grantees. For example, the installation of wave dams has been reported either as the total number of individual dams, the total length of all the dams combined, or the total area covered by the specific type of dams. Wave dams also feature only in later editions of application and reporting forms. Such issues with reporting complicate measure-specific analysis of restoration cost. For example, differences in units in which measures are reported make judgment on measure intensity in a restoration site challenging if not impossible.

Figure A5.1: An example of populating the circular polygons with the cropped spatial features (In this case different colours represent individual land cover classes).

Appendix A5.2 Supplementary results

Figure A5.2: Distribution of costs considered in the analysis after deflation to 2020 levels.

Variable	Mean	Std. Dev.	5th percentile	95th percentile
Cost per hectare (£/ha)	1549.70	1500.49	190.54	4482.95
Ratio of bare peat	0.00	0.01	0	0.02
Ratio of floodplains/surface waters	0.00	0.01	0	0.01
Snow days per year	28.70	15.06	5.17	55.94
Average wind speed (m/s)	5.98	1.43	3.85	8.62
Annual rainfall (mm)	1679.70	543.40	978.93	2770.40
Average peat depth (cm)	83.11	37.15	25.00	151.18
Terrain ruggedness (index)	191.66	163.14	20.62	489.31
Site cover heterogeneity (m)	390.23	452.66	110.82	750.06
Peat condition (site ratio)
Forest	0.19	0.34	0	1.00
Eroded	0.20	0.32	0	0.89
Modified	0.11	0.19	0	0.55
Near Natural	0.22	0.34	0	0.98
Other	0.00	0.01	0	0.00
Grassland	0.01	0.05	0	0.08
Extraction	0.02	0.11	0	0.11

Table A5.6: Descriptive statistics of explanatory variable data and cost per hectare of sites, N=229.

In Figure A5.3, we plot the same figure as Figure 5.3 in the main text, but we divide the multiplier by the standard deviation of the variable so that the magnitude of the multipliers can be compared between variables.

Figure A5.3: Normalised Log of the Cost per hectare multipliers (i.e. coefficients in the regression) according to the multi-linear model. For continuous variables, (e.g. average rainfall) this can be interpreted as for every one standard deviation, the log of the cost per hectare increases by the multiplier represented by the dot. For dummy (binary) variables (e.g. region), can be interpreted as the site having that property will increase the log cost per hectare by the multiplier. Positive log of the cost multipliers (right of the red line) implies increasing the variable increases the cost and vice-versa for negative log cost multipliers. If the entry is green, then the multiplier is significant (p<0.05). In this case magnitude of multipliers can be compared.

	Coefficient	Standard error	z-value	P>\|z\|	[0.025	0.975]
Proportion of bare peat	0.0681	0.054	1.266	0.205	-0.037	0.174
Prop. of floodplain/surf. waters	-0.0827	0.035	-2.339	0.019	-0.152	-0.013
Average Wind Speed	-0.0324	0.081	-0.402	0.687	-0.19	0.125
Average rainfall	-0.2711	0.106	-2.564	0.01	-0.478	-0.064
Average peat depth	-0.0594	0.064	-0.926	0.354	-0.185	0.066
Average ruggedness	0.0006	0.075	0.008	0.993	-0.146	0.147
Terrain heterogeneity	0.0334	0.032	1.058	0.29	-0.029	0.095
Site use forestry	-0.2395	0.096	-2.504	0.012	-0.427	-0.052
Site use grazing	0.1622	0.075	2.168	0.03	0.016	0.309
Site use field sports	-0.2271	0.288	-0.788	0.431	-0.792	0.338
Site use deer management	-0.0029	0.154	-0.019	0.985	-0.304	0.298
Site use biodiversity cons.	0.0456	0.168	0.272	0.786	-0.283	0.374
Site use other	-0.1757	0.201	-0.873	0.383	-0.57	0.219
SSSI	0.686	0.223	3.078	0.002	0.249	1.123
SAC	-0.2711	0.277	-0.979	0.328	-0.814	0.272
SPA	-0.1592	0.185	-0.86	0.39	-0.522	0.204
NSA	-0.6967	0.277	-2.517	0.012	-1.239	-0.154
NNR	0.3248	0.311	1.045	0.296	-0.284	0.934
Other designation	-0.1531	0.171	-0.894	0.371	-0.489	0.183
Prop. peat cond. forest	0.2808	0.085	3.306	0.001	0.114	0.447
Prop. peat condition eroded	0.2391	0.081	2.949	0.003	0.08	0.398
Prop. peat cond. modified bog	-0.0908	0.047	-1.949	0.051	-0.182	0.001
Prop. peat cond. near natural	-0.0213	0.088	-0.242	0.809	-0.194	0.151
Prop. peat condition other	0.0083	0.042	0.2	0.841	-0.073	0.09
Prop. peat condition grassland	-0.1133	0.054	-2.09	0.037	-0.22	-0.007
Prop. peat condition extraction	-0.1224	0.07	-1.742	0.081	-0.26	0.015
Zone Argyll	1.158	0.431	2.689	0.007	0.314	2.002
Zone Central Belt	0.7648	0.422	1.811	0.07	-0.063	1.593
Zone Isles	2.0428	0.352	5.797	0	1.352	2.733
Zone Central Highlands	1.4913	0.426	3.503	0	0.657	2.326
Zone East Coast	0.9365	0.373	2.514	0.012	0.206	1.667
Zone Northern Highlands	1.1248	0.413	2.725	0.006	0.316	1.934
Zone South West	0.8308	0.327	2.54	0.011	0.19	1.472
Year 2018/2019	-0.043	0.232	-0.185	0.853	-0.499	0.413
Year 2019/2020	0.1503	0.203	0.74	0.459	-0.248	0.548
Year 2020/2021	-0.0105	0.192	-0.055	0.956	-0.387	0.366
Year 2021/2022	0.1056	0.258	0.409	0.683	-0.4	0.612
Year 2022/2023	0.0486	0.385	0.126	0.9	-0.707	0.804

Table A5.7: Ordinary least squared regression of log of the cost per hectare.

Variable	VIF
constant	123.1919
Proportion of bare peat	1.249553
Proportion of flood plain	1.186187
Average wind speed	2.363117
Average rainfall	4.79262
Average peat depth	1.935288
Average ruggedness	3.198891
Terrain heterogeneity	1.708854
Site use forestry	1.568768
Site use field sports	3.643887
Site use deer management	2.73706
Site use biodiversity conservation	1.934092
Site use other	1.549223
SSSI	2.682824
SAC	2.018384
SPA	1.462261
NSA	2.738603
NNR	3.915651
Other designation	1.476853
Proportion peat condition forest	4.666531
Proportion peat condition eroded	3.073554
Proportion peat condition modified bog	1.589749
Proportion peat condition near natural	3.936502
Proportion peat condition other	1.356258
Proportion peat condition grassland	1.679904
Proportion peat condition extraction	1.691232
Zone Argyll	3.050752
Zone Central Belt	2.479631
Zone Isles	2.778177
Zone Central Highlands	4.194155
Zone East Coast	1.638507
Zone Northern Highlands	4.0296
Zone Southwest	3.898588
Year 2018/2019	2.705031
Year 2019/2020	2.128802
Year 2020/2021	1.909482
Year 2021/2022	2.277006
Year 2022/2023	2.325957

Table A5.8: Variance inflation factors (VIF) of the variables used in the log-linear model demonstrating the level of multi-collinearity. Variables were only included in the main model if the VIF<5.

Appendix A5.3 Additional information on economies of scale in peatland restoration with illustrative examples

Economies of scale arise at least partly from a contractor being able to spread fixed overhead costs for a project across a larger area. The literature review and interviews with contactors suggest that two main overhead costs are relevant: project tendering costs (i.e. the time and effort expended on submitting a bid) and project mobilization costs (i.e. the initial costs of getting equipment and materials on-site). Hence, whilst information on overhead costs was not sought explicitly through this research, some initial indicative analysis is possible.

To a first approximation, the costs of compiling and submitting a tender for a project are unrelated to its size since the effort required is determined by the tendering process rather than site size per se (although site complexity may increase required tendering effort). Similarly, again to a first approximation, haulage costs for equipment and materials relate primarily to the charge for moving a transporter carrying such items rather than carrying individual items themselves per se, implying that mobilization costs are likely to increase in a lumpy manner depending on how many haulage events are required rather than linearly with site size (e.g. if two diggers can be hauled on one transporter, mobilization costs will be the same for a small site requiring one digger and a larger site requiring two; only if more than two diggers are required will the larger site see an increase in mobilization costs – with scale still diluting the additional costs).

Contractor interviewees suggested that tendering takes two to three (eight hour) days. If contractors value their managerial time at £30/hour this equates to £480 to £720. If they value their time at £50/hour it equates to £800 to £1200. Online haulage costs suggest generic (i.e. not peatland) individual digger transportation costs mostly lie in the £400 to £500 range, depending on digger size and the distance moved (UShip, 2024; WHC, 2024). Taken together, these imply project overhead costs of c.£900 to £1700. For a five-hectare site these equate to unit costs of c.£180/ha to c.£340/ha. For a 20-hectare site they equate to c.£45/ha to £85/ha. This highlights the potential magnitude of economies of scale effects. A better understanding could be established with further investigation, including how contractors value their managerial time, the effort devoted to tendering and actual mobilizations costs (including for multiple diggers and for items other than diggers).

Appendix A5.4 Additional analysis regarding temporal trends

Area

Year	Sites	Area (ha)	Std. dev.
2017/18	45	42.7	36.4
2018/19	57	64.4	97.3
2019/20	45	54.2	54.5
2020/21	48	65.7	114.8
2021/22	31	73	112.1
2022/23	3	72	66.7

Table A5.9: Summary statistics outlining the average areas (ha) of restored sites per each funding year.

Types of restoration measures

Year	A only	B only	C only	A & B	A & C	B & C	A,B & C	All
2017/18	1	3	3	10	6	3	9	45
2018/19	8	2	15	16	7	1	8	57
2019/20	10	2	9	9	7	0	8	45
2020/21	10	11	3	16	2	4	2	48
2021/22	6	6	0	13	1	2	3	31
2022/23	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3
Total	35	34	30	67	23	10	30	229

Table A5.10: Number of sites restored using a measure category (A – dams & blocking, B – surface measures (bunding, mulching, replanting), C – forest & scrub removal) per funding year.

Land cover

Year	Shrub	Mires & Fens	Raised & Blanked Bogs	Woodland	Grassland	Other
2017/18	357.2	2.4	1147.8	22.3	324.7	73.1
2018/19	195.0	60.7	1689.2	204.0	1265.6	162.3
2019/20	311.1	6.7	1354.9	101.8	357.3	289.6
2020/21	467.2	6.7	1569.1	53.8	668.4	238.6
2021/22	232.5	1.2	1644.7	15.7	121.5	48.4
2022/23	96.0	0.4	221.9	1.5	37.7	0.5

Table A5.11: Area (ha) of each pre-restoration land cover category restored per each year.

Regions

Year	Flow Country	Argyll	Central Belt	Isles	Central Highlands	East Coast	Northern Highlands	South-west	All
2017/18	10	0	4	3	17	3	3	5	45
2018/19	7	9	10	1	3	5	10	12	57
2019/20	14	10	2	5	5	1	6	2	45
2020/21	10	0	0	1	13	0	6	18	48
2021/22	2	1	0	7	11	0	7	3	31
2022/23	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3
All	43	20	16	17	49	9	35	40	229

Table A5.10: Number of sites restored in each restoration zone per funding year.

Appendix B6 Opportunities and challenges for contractors

Appendix B6.1 Detailed methodological approach

Eight interviews were conducted with contractors providing peatland restoration services in Scotland. Interviews were conducted using an interview script (Appendix Table B6.1) to guide the conversation, yet allowing some flexibility for the discussion to move into other topics that were important to the participants. A semi- structured approach was selected because this is considered most appropriate where the topic of research is novel or under researched, as is the case for research concerning the experience of peatland restoration contractors.

Participants were selected for interview by purposive sampling, from a publicly available list of contractors willing to offer peatland restoration services (7), and from a list of new entrants to peatland restoration that was provided by NatureScot (1). A sampling frame was used to guide recruitment to ensure perspectives were obtained from contractors of different sizes and across geographic areas (Table 6.1).

Interviews were scheduled for thirty minutes, though ranged from 15 minutes to one hour and were conducted as video conference calls using Microsoft Teams (N=7), and by phone (N=1). Most interviews were conducted by interviewer 1 and 2 together (N=6), with interviewer 1 leading the interview. Two more were conducted by interviewer 2 alone.

An initial draft interview script was presented to the project steering group and revised to incorporate their feedback. With the consent of participants, interviews were recorded and later transcribed for analysis. Pre-approval for the overall approach and research instruments was received from the SRUC Ethics committee (Ref. 149 / 89056833).

Interview notes and transcripts were reviewed to identify commonalities and points of difference in contractor perspectives of the tender process and wider factors affecting the industry.

Pre-populated brief of contractor

Add here information collated e.g. from online sources on the contractor, if any

This may include – type of services offered, information on location, range of operation, experience & examples of past work, references, availability of machinery and staff capacity.

Contractor name:
Contact(s):
Website:
Useful info:

Type contractor (can be filled and/or revised after interview)

Experienced & active contractors focusing on restoration
Experienced & active contractors with wide range of business (e.g. forestry, estate management & road construction/maintenance)
Occasional contractors focusing on other business & who do not systematically look for restoration opportunities

Adjustments to questions needed if contractor falls into the following categories:

Tendering but unsuccessful
Not (yet) tendering

Introduction (to be tailored and aligned with contact emails and information provided therein)

We’re conducting research on behalf of the Scottish Government and its Centre of Expertise on Climate Change, looking at peatland restoration undertaken by contractors.

We’re interested in your views on peatland restoration – your experience as a contractor with the tendering process, how you approach costing bids for restoration work, and what influences restoration costs.

Your input will help with further development of funding schemes for restoration, for example by helping delivery partners and funders in having a better idea of the information that should be considered as relevant and make tendering easier for you.

Any information you provide will only be reported in anonymized form.

On this basis is this acceptable?

If not provided consent in email response, ask verbally for consent.

Table B6.1: Interview script.

Main questions	Instructions and Prompts	For context only: what we aim to learn from questions
Part 1 – business characterization
Q.1 Can you please briefly explain your role in the business?		Helps contextualizing response
Q.2 How long have you been operating as a peatland restoration contractor?	From what background did your peat restoration business start? What prompted the move into peatland work? Was there anything that facilitated the process?	This is to get some sense of the contractors level of experience with delivering peatland projects, but also a sense how peatland restoration is seen as a business opportunity
Q.3 Is peatland restoration the main focus of the business?	1 Could you estimate the percentage that restoration is to your turnover? 2 What other services does business offer? 3 How many tenders per year and success rate? 4 Total Number of Ha restored per year 5 Do you work on restoration all year round? If not what do you do in the off season?	Get an idea of relative importance of peatland restoration relative to other activities and scale of operation.
Q.4 What is your capacity for peatland restoration?	Geographically, where do you operate i.e. offer restoration services? How many staff? How many of those are Operators? Machinery capacity: number of diggers and drivers? Could you do more Ha than currently? What stops you from doing more Ha?	Similar to Q.3 Get an idea of the scale and place of operation.
Part 2 – Tendering for projects
Q.5 Where do you usually find out about new peatland restoration tenders?	How long do you usually spend on a tender?	Transition to topic of tendering
Q.6 What influences your decisions about whether or not to submit a bid?	Top three most important aspects affecting your decision to tender? For prompting, notes and coding – see list of related points below. Contractor business perspective What is our capacity to do this work? Do we have other more profitable work? Does the project fit into the calendar? Will this job fit in with other jobs in the area? Is the work within our competence/machine capability? How flexible is the contract? Hassle factor and contingency required? Can we make a reasonable profit? Level of competition from other contractors? Overarching constraints Distance – site too far/out of business range No capacity in project timeframe Client Client reputation & payment attitude Good communication Tendering process How complicated is the tendering process? Opportunity for site visit. If not may need to add contingency How much documentation is required? How much info (maps etc) is available Are there other benefits of this contract….getting further contracts Return date of tender Project characteristics Duration of project…longer the better Scale of the project….bigger better usually Start date…too soon to fit in with other work? How close is the finishing date Is this an easy project or complex – how is complexity assessed? Site condition/intensity of work Access issues that can be mitigated or not	Obtain insights on tendering decisions –, i.e., key facilitating factors and barriers to preparing and submitting a tender. Response to Q.6 may lead naturally into Q.7 (appraisal of the tender information to arrive at a bid)
Q.7 What makes for a good profitable project as opposed to a relatively difficult one?	Aspects may already emerge from elaboration on reasons for whether to tender (list above in Q.6). How do you arrive at estimates of staff and machinery days? Do you appraise complexity of a job for that, and if so, what are indicators for complexity you look for? Anything you specifically look out for that has significant cost implications?	This is about appraisal of the tender information to arrive at a bid – i.e. factors affecting contractor cost calculations.
Q.8 How could the tendering process be improved?	Would you prefer if the tenders were based on a number of digger days or specific lengths of ditches for example?	Opportunities for improving tendering process to facilitate (additional) restoration
Part 3 – outlook and trajectory for peatland business
Q.9 Have you taken on additional staff to deliver peat restoration, or invested in machinery over past 2 years?	If yes to additional staff: Did you require additional training and if so how was this delivered? Have you taken advantage of any publicly-funded training courses? Would simulator training help encourage you to take on a member of staff? If yes to machinery: Have you found the additional investment worthwhile to your operation? What innovations will help you in the future? What are the future drivers of costs?	Learn about past investment as indicator of expected direction of business and willingness to expand
Q.10 Do you expect (the peatland restoration side of your) business to grow? In next 1-2 years or 3 to 5 years?	If yes, why? If no, what makes you think so?	Opportunities and barriers to growth
Q.11 What would encourage you to (further) expand capacity, or to bid for more projects?	E.g. Changes in funding models, if there was bundling of projects? Framework tenders, improving certainty over further income from restoration projects over several years? Support e.g. interest free government loans for machinery Certification indicating e.g. trained supplier of restoration services Consistency of funding … [input from steering group?]	Mitigating barriers to growth and new models to encourage scaling of capacity
Q.12 What do you think keeps other contractors from bidding for restoration projects?		Perceptions of other contractors – “themes” emerging across contractors
Q.13 Are you able to suggest to us other contractors who could in theory deliver restoration but don’t bid? Do you know of anyone who we could or should talk to? (and why should we talk to them)?		Help with identifying further interviewees (may or may not follow recommendations)
Wrap up
Any questions to us?
Note if they would like to see published CxC report
Thanks and close

Table B6.2: Final interview schedule for interviews with (potential) contractors of peatland restoration services.

This work was supported by the Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division of the Scottish Government (CoE – CXC).

ClimateXChange
Edinburgh Climate Change Institute
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If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

Restoration and rewetting are used interchangeably in this report. In doing so, we do not imply that it is likely that peatlands will be restored to their historic undisturbed state, but emphasise the aim of restoring the functioning of the area as a wetland. This is done through raising water tables, i.e. rewetting. ↑
Although the 2032 emission targets have now been acknowledged as unachievable, the peatland restoration target remains in place. ↑
Unless noted otherwise, we will refer to restoration costs as the capital requirements to implement restoration on site. This does not include certain transaction (program administration and monitoring) costs borne by funders, the opportunity costs of restoration related to income forgone (see Moxey et al. 2016), or any private financial benefits of restoration e.g. related to carbon scheme participation or transfer payments. Such costs can make up a considerable amount of total cost of investing in nature based solutions (Kang et al. 2023). ↑
Forestry and Land Scotland and the Cairngorms National Park Authority also hold data on restoration costs (as do Loch Lomond and Trossachs National Park), but these databases were beyond the scope of this project. ↑
For further insights, the search goes beyond peatland and peatland restoration only, including habitat (e.g. wetlands, grassland) restoration more generally but also other land-based sectors requiring similar contracted land management services (e.g. forestry, landscape gardening civil engineering). ↑
For example, Spencer (1989), Cohan (2018), Benjaminsson et al. (2019), Kronholm et al. (2021), Oo et al. (2022), Binshakir et al. (2023), Johansson et al. (2023), Olatunji et al. (2023). ↑
We note that the magnitudes of the factors cannot be compared (see Appendix Figure A5.3 for a version of the Figure where magnitudes can be compared). ↑
Potentially contributing to relatively lower restoration costs, earlier projects especially in the Flow Country may have been subject to sequencing of restoration measures at the same site over several years; with yearly progress entered as new projects into the SRUC cost database. The extent to which such sequencing might have taken place is, however, unclear. ↑
Note that the analysis only includes forest-to-bog restoration by NatureScot PA projects (and not forest-to-bog restoration through, for example, FLS). ↑
At the time of interviewing, interviewees may not have been aware that listing on PCS had recently been made compulsory rather than simply preferable. ↑
It should be noted, however, that interviews were mostly undertaken before an announcement was made regarding funding for an additional 7000ha. ↑

		H₂	H₂	NH₃	C₂₁H₂₀	MgH₂
	High voltage inter-connectors	Gaseous H₂ pipelines	Liquid hydrogen	Ammonia	LOHC	Metal hydrides
Economic case (short distance^[1])	AMBER	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER	AMBER
Economic case (long distance^[2])	RED	RED	RED	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER
Technical feasibility	GREEN	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER	AMBER
Scottish capabilities	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER	RED	RED	RED
Sustainability	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER	AMBER	GREEN

	NH₃	CH₃OH
	Ammonia	Methanol	Refining	Green steel
Economic case	N/A	AMBER	N/A	GREEN/AMBER*
Technical feasibility	GREEN	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER
Scottish capabilities	RED	RED	GREEN	AMBER
Sustainability	AMBER	GREEN	GREEN	GREEN
Low-carbon alternative	GREEN	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER

	H₂
	Hydrogen	CCUS-enabled gas	Bio-based products
Economic case	AMBER	AMBER	GREEN
Technical feasibility	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN
Scottish capabilities	AMBER	AMBER	GREEN
Sustainability	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN
Low-carbon alternative	AMBER	N/A	N/A

			CH₃OH	NH₃
	Hydrogen (fuel cell)	SAF	Methanol (maritime)	Ammonia (maritime)
Economic case	AMBER	AMBER	AMBER	GREEN
Technical feasibility	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN	RED
Scottish capabilities	AMBER	AMBER	RED	RED
Sustainability	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER
Low-carbon alternative	RED	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER


	SCOTLAND	REST OF THE UK	GERMANY	NETHERLANDS	BELGIUM	WIDER EU
DISTANCE	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	AMBER	AMBER	AMBER
INFRASTRUCTURE	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN
EXISTING DEMAND	AMBER	AMBER	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN
PROJECTED DEMAND	AMBER	GREEN	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN
POLICY LANDSCAPE	GREEN	GREEN	GREEN	GREEN	AMBER	GREEN

Executive summary

Key findings

Opportunities for action and policy implications

Glossary and abbreviations table

Introduction

How can Scotland balance climate goals, public health, and economic resilience in food policy?

Aims of the project

Methodology

Research design

Research approach and evidence sources

Ethics and data management

Stakeholder mapping

PESTLE framework

Limitations and future research

Analysis of diet and climate policy evidence

PESTLE Political dimension

PESTLE Economic dimension

PESTLE Social dimension

PESTLE Technological dimension

PESTLE Legal dimension

PESTLE Environmental dimension

Analysis of areas for policy development

PESTLE evidence analysis of areas for further policy development

Conclusions and policy implications

Informing next steps for policy development

References

Appendix A: Diet & climate policy stakeholder identification and mapping methodology

Purpose and Scope

Methods

Stakeholder Categories

Ongoing Adaptation

Appendix B: Findings from the stakeholder identification and mapping analysis

Appendix C: Systematic literature review methodology

Appendix D: Systematic literature review flowchart

Appendix E: Stakeholder meeting methodology

Purpose and Overview:

Stakeholder Identification and Selection

Format and Approach

Ethical Considerations and Data Management

Analytical Use

Semi-structured meeting protocol

Meeting participants

Appendix F: Stakeholder workshop protocols

Workshop Purpose

Workshop Formats

Online Workshop Structure and Schedule[11]

Data Collection and Follow-Up

Participating stakeholders

Appendix G: Extended Political analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Appendix H: Extended Economic analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Appendix I: Extended Social analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Appendix J: Extended Technological analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Appendix K: Extended Legal analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Appendix L: Extended Environmental analysis: Areas for further policy development and supporting evidence

Executive summary

Aims

Findings

Further research

Abbreviations

Introduction

Study context and aims

Traditional primary aggregates use

Alternatives to primary aggregates in Scotland

Case Studies

Findings

Factors driving uptake of alternatives to primary aggregates

Technical Innovations

Changing attitudes

Environmental impact

Technical viability

Academic discussion

Stakeholder opinion

Challenges and barriers to the increased uptake of secondary and alternative aggregates

Data challenges

Potential limited scope for increased use of alternatives to primary aggregates.

Challenges due to industry standards

Operational and market challenges

Fiscal factors

Tax rate adjustments for primary aggregates

Subsidies for alternatives to primary aggregates

Online Workshop Structure and Schedule^[11]