This report examines the role grid-scale battery storage could play in providing a resilient, affordable electricity network. In line with Scotland’s Energy Strategy and Net Zero emission targets, it considers the period to 2030 and 2045, reviewing current practice and experience, and current expectations for further developments.

Grid-scale battery storage is likely to be an important part of the evolution of the electricity system in the UK, with capacity in Scotland estimated to rise to 1,800-2,700 MWh by 2030, and 6,800-10,500 MWh by 2045. This is driven by several factors, in particular, the growth of variable renewable energy (wind, solar) and decarbonisation by electrification of heat supply and transport. Battery system costs are also expected to fall further.

It finds that, in the Scottish context, battery storage is likely to be particularly useful in the longer term in supporting weaker parts of the electricity system, such as on islands and in more remote areas with a high proportion of renewables. Few issues have been encountered so far in obtaining development consent for battery projects, it notes, with proximity to an adequate grid connection the factor most influencing siting.

There are many different ways to define and assess cost effectiveness. The Scottish Government needs a sound, evidence-based definition of cost effectiveness to use in the Energy Efficient Scotland programme, which proposes to bring all Scottish homes up to an Energy Performance Certificate Band C by 2040, where technically feasible and cost effective.

This report looks at the pros and cons of using different definitions of cost effectiveness in relation to energy efficiency investments in homes and non-domestic buildings.

We found that cost effectiveness definitions vary in how energy savings are predicted or measured, in what other costs and benefits are included, and in the metrics used. We identified nine methods of evaluating cost effectiveness, summarised in the table below, along with our assessment of the pros and cons of each.

 The definitions of cost-effectiveness is discussed in relation to:

•  Packages versus single measures
• Wider benefits to society
• Differences in domestic and non-domestic sectors
• Variations in application
• Sources of funding
• Acceptability of payback periods
• Uses in practice
• Practical lessons 

Bioenergy already contributes to energy supply in Scotland, meeting an estimated 4.4% of final energy demand in 2016.  This has been achieved through a number of bioenergy conversion technologies utilising a range of bioresources.

The Scottish Energy Strategy, published in December 2017, sets out the Scottish Government’s vision for a flourishing, competitive energy sector, delivering secure, affordable, clean energy for Scotland’s households, communities and businesses. The Strategy sets out the ambition for 50% of all energy consumed in Scotland to come from renewable sources by 2030. One of the actions to achieve this is developing a bioenergy action plan.

This study forms one of the first steps in developing the bioenergy action plan, setting out an evidence base on the nature and quantities of biological resources within Scotland that could be used for bioenergy, and the conversion technologies that could be deployed to utilise them.

Main findings:

• Bioresources equivalent to 6.7 TWh per year (in primary energy terms) are currently used for bioenergy purposes. Just over three-quarters of this is wood.
• Increasing the contribution that bioenergy makes by 2030 would require additional bioenergy plant to be built and deployed within the next decade.
• Based on typical capital, operating and feedstock costs, all of the bioenergy conversion technologies considered produce energy or fuel at a price that is higher than that produced by conventional technologies, based on current fossil fuel prices.
• Estimates of domestic bioresources suggest that several additional anaerobic digestion plant are technically feasible, but utilising the resource fully is likely to require the use of a mixture of feedstocks in some plant.
• Advanced conversion technologies such as gasification for power or to produce synthetic natural gas and advanced biofuels production could be commercially proven by 2030.
• Allowing for competing uses of some bioresources in other sectors of the economy, there is another 5.3 TWh per year (of primary energy), that is currently not collected or is disposed of as waste, that could potentially be utilised for bioenergy.
• By 2030, further bioresources equivalent to 2 TWh per year (of primary energy) could be available.

The way we generate, distribute and consume energy is changing, and many observers anticipate accelerated changes ahead. These transformations are being driven by a combination of policy and regulatory pressures, rapid movements in the cost and performance of some energy technologies, and shifting patterns of consumption and behaviour.

This UKERC/CXC report presents results from a detailed survey exploring the differing views. It finds agreement that large scale renewables, buildings refurbishment and electric vehicles will play a major role in the UK energy system transition – but much less agreement in other areas, such as the role of behaviour change and modal shift in the transport sector, and the likely path for decarbonising buildings heat supply.

Read a blog about the project

Traditionally Scotland’s energy systems have relied on large centralised sources. The Scottish Government is now pursuing a policy of smarter, local models.  

This project is part of looking at the the opportunities for, and implications of, Scotland moving towards smart local energy systems, driven by sustainable decarbonised energy resources.  The research team has developed the Energy Flow Scotland (EFS) toolset which draws on other models to quantify energy flows, including both the anticipated demand and likely supply of energy.

The models quantify predicted energy flows at a district level, allowing for analysis of local energy demand and resources at a local level under different future energy scenarios. We have used the EFS toolset to analyse different credible future scenarios for Scotland’s energy system.

Key findings and conclusions

• A highly decarbonised and decentralised energy system will require significant investment in the electrical distribution system to make it fit for purpose.
  Local areas that introduce a balance of new low carbon demand technologies (such as EVs and Heat Pumps) with low carbon renewable generation will reduce the impact on electrical substations and thus requirements to upgrade. Areas that connect significant volumes of new renewable generation, without an associated rise in EVs/HPs, will see large rises in exported energy.
• A rise in low carbon demand technologies will impact electrical distribution substations, with a high number requiring reinforcement by 2040. However, a more centralised pathway that revolves around the integration of renewable generation concentrated in areas of natural resource will incur greater overall additional electrical system capacity requirement, despite perhaps less electrical substations requiring upgrade.
• The electrical distribution system across rural areas will be impacted more than urban areas between 2018 and mid-2030s. However, a steady rise in low carbon demand technologies will result in a sharp impact on urban areas between mid-2030s and 2040.
• Meeting future carbon reduction targets may be achieved using either a centralised or decentralised approach. However, this analysis forecasts that it will cost roughly 2.6 times more to upgrade the electrical distribution system using a decentralised approach in comparison to a centralised strategy.
  

The interim summary report includes:

• Development of the EFS toolset of electrical, heat and transport demand models, and renewable generation models.
• Use of the EFS toolset to model how electrical energy flows may change at electrical grid supply points (GSPs) throughout Scotland under a particular 2030 electrified energy future scenario.
• Analysis of how decarbonisation and decentralisation may impact electrical flows at particular GSPs, as well as discussion on the distinct challenges and opportunities at both urban and rural areas.
• Description on how local energy balancing may be used to reduce the need for future network reinforcements.

ClimateXChange commissioned Changeworks and the Centre for Energy Policy, University of Strathclyde to review existing European regulatory models and identify learning from each that are relevant to the Scottish context. The outputs will add to a body of existing research which will inform the Scottish Government’s proposals regarding regulation in the coming years.

This report details the findings from a review of seven European DH regulatory models, including a contextualised evaluation of each model. The research used evidence gathered through a literature review and interviews. 

As a product of the research, four key components of an effective regulatory system for district heating are identified as:

• Long term planning and commitment to DH development
• Successful use of tools which stimulate market development and investment in the sector
• Co-ordination of national and municipal governments, and scope for industry interests to have a say in certain regulatory issues
• Flexibility to allow for innovation, and account for market changes

These are the key lessons to be considered for the introduction of district heating regulation in Scotland.

This report looks at different approaches to modelling energy efficiency within TIMES, the whole energy system modelling framework used by the Scottish Government to inform energy and climate change policy decisions. The findings are based on six different energy efficiency scenarios for residential heating.

This has two objectives:

1. To identify different approaches for energy efficiency scenario modelling in TIMES, and provide an assessment of strengths and limitations of each modelling approach.
2. To give recommendations on how to use TIMES effectively for energy efficiency policy analysis.

There is no single energy efficiency scenario which is superior to the others, as each focuses on different policy targets which could come into conflict with each other. For example, the results of some scenarios prioritise energy efficiency improvements whereas others prioritise cost reduction or emission reductions. Policy makers should understand the compromises involved in using each of these scenarios and prioritise certain indicators over others.

This report is an introduction to the issue of effective government policy with respect to energy efficient retrofit in the private rental sector, and to some of the evidence that relates to the topic. It is intended to be relevant to both the development of energy retrofit policy in the private rental sector in Scotland, and to anyone with a general interest in the topic.

It contains background information on the private rental sector and energy use in Scotland, and on the existing approach to government policy in this area, both in Scotland and across the UK. It follows this with a summary of some of the evidence on the issue from the academic and non-academic sources that were gathered for this scoping report.

Like the owner-occupier sector, policy interventions in the PRS are complicated by the level of actors that need to be addressed i.e. many thousands of individual landlords and tenants. Alongside this, the difficulty which is most commonly cited in the literature reviewed in this report is that of a split incentive between those who are most liable to pay the costs of energy retrofit – the property owners – and those who will most likely reap the benefits – the property occupants.

Despite substantial progress, the path to commercialisation for the wave and tidal industries is taking longer and proving more difficult than initially expected.

This project charts recent activity and views in the sector; investigating the deployment pipeline and the market; exploring recent policy and political signals from UK and devolved administrations and the availability of market-pull instruments; and sets UK development in the global context.

It concludes that the wave and tidal sector is at an early stage of development, both technically and commercially, relative to other established renewable energy technologies such as solar photovoltaic and onshore/offshore wind. Technically it has been proven that wave and tidal energy converters can deliver electrical power into the grid, which was not the case only a decade ago. The track record of demonstrated performance at this stage is quite limited, although notable advances have been made in the past 12 months, particularly in tidal stream energy. Deployed capacity is also small both in the UK and globally, but several companies have ambitious plans for market expansion.

Most investment to date in the wave and tidal sector in terms of the supply chain, technology and project development has come from the private sector. This has been stimulated by government policy and market signals. For continued progress to be made this needs to be built upon to mobilise further private investment.

On 22-23 March 2018, the University of Edinburgh and ClimateXChange co-hosted two events exploring the potential impact of Brexit on the Scottish energy system. Over the two days, a distinguished set of experts from across industry, government, academia and law debated the risks and uncertainties of Brexit in the context of the Scottish Government’s ambitious decarbonisation strategy, and the UK’s wider climate and energy policy agenda.

The first event – a panel discussion – discussed the question ‘How disruptive will Brexit be to Scotland’s Energy Strategy?’. The aim of the event was to provide a Scottish perspective on the impact of Brexit on our energy system. Indeed, this is a highly topic issue; the Scottish Government has been at the forefront for building the case against the UK’s departure from the European Union, and has recently published an assessment highlighting significant costs of a ‘hard’ Brexit to the Scottish economy

The following day an invitation-only workshop gathered 15 experts from across government, industry, and academia to consider the future of the UK’s electricity system in the context of Brexit. Participants engaged with the following questions:

• What are the risks and uncertainties facing the UK electricity system after Brexit? To what extent does the functioning of this system – now and in the future – depend on EU membership?
• How can the probability and impact of the identified risks be measured and assessed?
• What can be done to mitigate risk and reduce uncertainty for the UK electricity system following Brexit?