March 2024

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/4518

Executive summary

Aims

The aim of this study is to investigate the skills need of the solar industry in Scotland, based on a proposed ambition of 4 to 6 gigawatts (GW) installed solar capacity by 2030. These were addressed through a literature review, model development and stakeholder engagement. We also relied on the expertise of solar industry specialists in the study team.

Findings

The modelling was carried out assuming the delivery of 6 GW by 2030. This assumes a split between 3.5 GW ground-mounted, 1GW commercial rooftop and 1.5 GW domestic rooftop solar panels.

We developed a hypothetical deployment pathway that delivers 6 GW of solar power by 2030. On basis of this pathway, the workforce serving the solar industry will need to increase from approximately 800 in 2023 to an estimate of over 11,000 full time equivalent (FTEs) in 2030. Most of this growth is attributed to construction-related activities, especially for ground-mounted solar projects, as shown in Figure 1.

Figure 1. Workforce requirements to deliver 6 GW solar capacity in Scotland by 2030, in FTE. Based on hypothetical deployment pathway.

Overall, stakeholder engagement suggests that the people currently employed in the industry have the right skills, however, there is a significant shortage of skilled labour. Therefore, there is a need for more people to be recruited into the solar industry. The existing training provision, with some development and adaptation, can provide the necessary skills to those who do not have direct solar industry experience.

If skilled workforce shortages are not addressed, the potential impact on the ability to deliver 4 to 6 GW of solar capacity by 2030 could be significant, given the difference between current and required future workforce levels.

The expansion to around 11,000 FTEs by 2030 includes 9,100 FTEs for construction related activities, almost 82% of the new workforce required. These workforce requirements are relatively temporary. In contrast, approximately 2,000 FTEs will be required for operation and maintenance activities, which provide more lasting employment needs.

The highest levels of workforce requirements were identified in the following specialisms:

• electricians
• grid connection engineers
• high voltage technicians
• electrical engineers
• constructions workers, including:
• civil contractors
• general labourers / operators
• crane operators / lifting contractors
• roofers

Our research points to two pathways for achieving a suitable skillset for these specialisms: 1) upskilling in addition to general technical training through short courses or in-house training, or 2) adding PV-relevant modules to existing training courses.

In terms of geographic distribution, we base our estimates on the project pipeline data in the Renewable Energy Projects Database at the time of writing (December 2023). Our estimates suggest that the installation of commercial rooftop projects is, and will continue to be, concentrated in and around the main clusters of population in the central belt of Scotland, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, the east- and north-east of Scotland and in and around the Inverness area. The majority of the ground-mounted projects will be located in more rural and less densely populated regions of Scotland, particularly Aberdeenshire, Angus, Fife and Tayside, where there is availability of land at a size appropriate for these larger systems. The installation of ground-mounted systems is expected to require a partly mobile and partly fixed workforce. Reliable data relating to the future pipeline of domestic rooftop projects is not readily available.

Recommendations

Actions to address the skills shortages in Scotland will be essential for the success of Scotland’s solar PV industry in its delivery of 6 GW installed capacity and for meeting broader renewable energy objectives. The development and delivery of these actions should be led by industry, but will require support from and collaboration with schools, colleges, universities, training providers and relevant public sector bodies.

We suggest the following actions to address the skills challenges highlighted:

• Developing strategies to promote the solar industry and attract new entrants. These should highlight its net zero and sustainability credentials and be designed for primary, secondary, further and higher education students, as well as individuals already in the workforce. These should clearly illustrate the wide range of potential career pathways for individuals at all levels of education.
• Putting in place initiatives to design and specify renewable energy and solar-specific course content. Potential options could include:
• a dedicated apprenticeship in renewable energy
• college and university courses (such as electrical engineering) and apprenticeships (such as electrician and construction) that provide the opportunity to specialise in renewable energy and/or solar PV system installation
• extension of the vocational graduate apprenticeship scheme to cover a wider range of subjects, such as electrical engineering.

Glossary / abbreviations table

Introduction

Background

By late 2023, Scotland’s solar energy capacity was recorded at approximately 600 megawatts (MW) consisting of domestic and commercial rooftop installations and a small number of ground-mounted installation^[1].

In 2021 Solar Energy Scotland called upon the Scottish Government to commit to a minimum of 4 GW solar energy by 2030, with an ambition to reach 6 GW (Solar Energy UK, 2023). In October 2023, the Scottish Government publicly announced a proposal for a solar deployment ambition of 4-6 GW by 2030 (Scottish Parliament, 2023). A final decision on this proposed ambition will be made in the final solar vision, which is due to be published within the Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan in summer 2024.

Purpose of this study

To deliver 4-6 GW of solar by 2030, ground-based solar farms and rooftop systems would have to be deployed at a scale that has never been attempted before in Scotland. A skilled workforce would play a crucial part in enabling this scale of activity and it is essential, therefore, that any skills gaps and/or shortages within the workforce are identified, so that skills providers and policymakers can develop actionable strategies to close these gaps. This study investigates the skills needs for the solar industry in Scotland, based on the proposed ambition to reach 4 to 6 GW installed solar capacity by 2030. The key objectives are to:

• Model the current and future workforce requirements in Scotland’s solar industry assuming 6 GW installed capacity by 2030.
• Use these models to estimate the number of skilled workers required at each stage of the project lifecycle for the different types of project (ground-based and rooftop).
• Identify the geographical spread of the workforce, identifying where jobs will be located in Scotland.
• Assess the potential future demand for skills and identify any skills gaps.

Study methodology

The study relies on a literature review, insights from the experience of study team members and ITPEnergised in managing hundreds of solar projects, internal ITPEnergised interviews, study-specific modelling and stakeholder validation. Stakeholder engagement included interviews with ten stakeholders in the solar industry and a presentation at Solar Energy Scotland (the Solar Energy UK Scottish Working Group).

Section 4 provides an overview of the solar industry.

Section 5 details the solar project lifecycle, job roles and skills levels.

Section 6 quantifies the number and types of jobs required currently and to 2030.

Section 7 details the demand for skills, challenges and ways of addressing these challenges.

The report concludes with observations on future skills requirements and makes recommendations for actions required to address the skills challenges identified in sections 8 and 9.

Solar industry overview

Solar photovoltaic systems

The key components of a solar photovoltaic (PV) system are the solar panels that are constructed from layers of highly specialised semiconductor materials. When the sun shines on a solar panel, the energy causes electrons to be released from these materials and flow from one layer to another. When the layers are connected in an electrical circuit, electrons are ‘pushed’ towards the metal conducting elements (electrodes and wires) creating direct current electricity. This is known as the photovoltaic effect.

In addition to the solar panels themselves, other components in a typical PV system could include electrical connections, output power lines, inverters, mounting equipment, devices that manage the electricity exchange with batteries, batteries, meters, wiring, power processing and grounding equipment. The installation, commissioning, operation and maintenance of this equipment requires specialised skills.

Market overview

Global energy generation by solar photovoltaic

Globally, solar PV generation increased by a record 270 terrawatt hours (TWh), up 26%, in 2022, reaching almost 1,300 TWh. It demonstrated the largest absolute generation growth of all renewable technologies in 2022, surpassing wind (International Energy Agency, 2023).

A notable trend in the solar energy sector is the decreasing costs of PV systems. The prices for solar PV modules recently saw a dramatic decline, nearly halving year-on-year. This price decrease coincided with a substantial increase in manufacturing capacity, which reached three times the levels recorded in 2021.

Chinese companies have an almost complete monopoly over the global solar PV cell manufacturing industry, rendering the supply chain more prone to disruption. Overall, China is expected to maintain an 80-95% share in the global solar PV supply chain, as reported by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in their Renewable Energy and Jobs Annual Review 2023 (IRENA, 2023).

UK and Scottish market overview

In the UK, the cumulative installed capacity of solar PV reached nearly 16 GW at the end of 2023. In late 2023, Scotland’s solar energy capacity was recorded at 600 MW, as noted previously (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 2023).

In addition to the installed capacity, there is, at the end of 2023, an estimated pipeline capacity of 1.74 GW, as shown in Table 1 (data extracted from the REPD database).

The data above refers to commercial projects (ground mounted and rooftop) only, as such data is not collected for domestic rooftop installations.

The largest solar farm in Scotland, sited on land at the Errol Estate in Perthshire, came online in 2016 (Scotland Land & Estates, 2023). This 13 MW scheme, incorporating 55,000 solar panels, produces enough electricity to power 3,500 homes. The capacity of the other operational solar farms and commercial roof-top installations is 10 MW or less, with the majority being less than 1 MW.

Despite the reduction in PV system costs, coupled with the recent spike in energy prices in the UK, demand for domestic solar PV has not increased significantly, according to a stakeholder (industry association) contacted during this study. This is due to factors such as relatively high absolute costs and reduced grant availability.

In Scotland, solar value chains are primarily focused on the design, installation and maintenance aspects of solar PV systems. This focus aligns with the global trends in the solar market, with manufacturing centralised in China.

Solar industry context

Interviewees for this study have strongly emphasised the constraints they are facing with regards to obtaining a grid connection and to the processing of planning applications. Although this was not the focus of the study, it is an important contextual detail because bottlenecks in these allied sectors are likely to have a significant impact on how many projects progress through the pipeline. This, in turn, impacts the sector’s demand for skilled workforce. Details are provided in Appendix B.

Solar project lifecycle, job roles and skills levels

Solar project lifecycle

A solar PV project lifecycle has five phases, as shown in Figure 2: equipment manufacture and distribution; project development; installation, commissioning and handover; operation and maintenance; and decommissioning. This has been developed based on the ITPEnergised experience of consulting and managing hundreds of projects for solar PV developers:

Figure 2: Solar project lifecycle

While the figure includes the first stage, equipment manufacture and distribution, this is shown for completeness only due to lack of PV manufacturing in Scotland, as discussed above.

With regards to decommissioning, this does not currently apply, since a typical solar installation has a design life of 25-30 years^[3] and the solar industry in Scotland is not sufficiently mature to require skills for decommissioning. However, it is expected that some systems will be coming to end-of-life in the next ten years and decommissioning will become relevant in the timeframe to 2030. For example, the first domestic rooftop panels in the UK were installed in 1994 (Changeworks, 2024).

The project lifecycle covers both ground and rooftop solar projects, although, at a more detailed level there are some differences in the activities carried out at each stage of the lifecycle in a large ground-based project compared to a domestic rooftop. This, in turn, affects the timelines for initial feasibility and the project development stages of these project categories, as follows:

• Large ground mounted – two to three years depending on size and complexity^[4].
• Commercial rooftop (average size of 50 KW) – three to six months depending on planning permission requirements^[5].
• Domestic rooftop – three to six months depending on planning permission requirements²¹.

Job roles and skills levels

The job roles required at different project stages depend on the project size and type. Not every type of project will require every job role and the scale of the project will have a significant influence on skills requirements.

The job roles and skills levels at each stage of the project lifecycle relevant to Scotland are considered below. These have been developed based on the expertise of IPTEnergised in delivering solar PV projects for clients^[6]. Inputs and validation were also provided by stakeholders consulted during this study.

Project development

A wide range of job roles are required at the early stages of the project lifecycle, see table below. The breadth of specialisms required is an indicator of the importance of this stage of the process.

*Different types of environmental consultants are required, including: ecological clerk of works, flood risk and drainage specialist, ornithologist, ecologist, hydro/hydrogeo/geologist/peat specialist, noise and vibration specialist, forester.

Ground mounted projects require the broadest range of job roles particularly where the potential environmental impacts of the project need to be considered. For rooftop projects, the services of a skilled structural engineer are crucial to ensure the structural integrity of the building remains intact following system installation. Project developers will, at this stage, commence engagement with the senior authorised person (SAP), a professional that is responsible for the safety of themselves and others working in high voltage areas at the relevant Distribution Network Operator (DNO). They will also engage with DNO engineers and case workers and with relevant planning authorities as required. At this stage, many of the of job roles require the achievement of tertiary education levels, as a minimum and / or a requisite number of years’ experience.

Installation, commissioning and handover

The job roles for the installation, commissioning and handover of a solar project are more focused on construction, with less reliance of specialist consultants and engineers, see Table 3. For ground mounted projects, project management is a key role, typically delivered by an engineering, procurement and construction contractor, and some on-going oversight of potential environmental impacts by an environmental consultant may be required. As before, larger projects, both ground mounted and rooftop commercial, will require ongoing engagement with DNO staff and local authority planners as required. Rooftop projects, specifically, will require an experienced roofing contractor (e.g. slater / tiler). Smaller domestic installations can, typically, be completed by a roofer and an electrician, with limited input required from other job roles.

Operation and maintenance

The emphasis of the job roles associated with this stage of the project lifecycle include, but is not limited to adjustments, repairs, replacements, cleaning and extension of equipment life. For larger ground-based projects this will, typically, be overseen by an asset manager and may require some input from engineering, procurement and construction contractors. Other contractors will be brought in as required. Generally, the main job roles across all three types of projects will be in the electrical field (electricians and high voltage technicians) and for rooftop projects, roofers will be required. At this stage, some of the job roles require the achievement of tertiary education levels, as a minimum and / or a requisite number of years’ experience, see Table 4.

Decommissioning

As discussed above, the solar industry in Scotland is not sufficiently mature for projects to have reached end of life. The job roles and skills levels required for each type of project in Table 5 are, therefore, based on expert judgement.

We note that legal skills may be required at all stages of project lifecycle, most typically for ground-based projects and for larger rooftop projects. This will be to satisfy the requirements for contract negotiations, land purchase, regulatory compliance, and other related legal matters.

Current and future jobs

Current and future jobs numbers by category

The current number of FTE in Scottish solar sector was 800 with the same value reported in LCREE for 2021 and 2022.

To estimate job numbers and roles for 2024-2030 we developed two modelling approaches:

• a top-down model which uses the data on the total employment in the solar sector in 2021 and the installed solar capacity in 2021, and
• a bottom-up model uses IPTEnergised simulated projects (ground-mounted, 50 MW; commercial rooftop, 1 MW; domestic rooftop, 4 KW) and their corresponding FTE requirements.

The top-down model is based on recorded historic data and is aligned with analysis for other renewables sectors. The bottom-up model allows sufficient granularity to generate predictions regarding detailed job roles, information for which is not available in the top-down modelling.

The modelling structure is presented in Figure 3.

Figure 3: Overview of the data sources, assumptions, and simulations used in the top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches.

The bottom-up model is based on a typical solar project lifecycle, associated job roles and skills levels and a hypothetical solar deployment pathway scenario for Scotland that has been developed for this project. It has not been possible to create an evidence-based deployment scenario as the pipeline of projects that would be required to achieve the proposed ambition of 4-6 GW installed capacity by 2030 does not yet exist. The FTE requirements over the period 2024 – 2030 are dependent on this hypothetical capacity deployment pathway. They could look different under a different capacity deployment scenario.

The initial outputs of the two types of modelling, including assumptions about the deployment pathway, were validated by industry and other stakeholders through interviews and a presentation of the draft study findings at a meeting of the Solar Energy Scotland (the Solar Energy UK Scottish Working Group).

Further details on modelling methodology and data sources are included in Appendix C.

Figure 4 provides an annual overview of the projected FTE requirements by project phase and project type to 2030, on basis of our top-down modelling. Both, construction and O&M activities are predicted to increase steadily throughout this timeframe.

Figure 4: Annual FTE requirements in construction and operation of solar projects, by project type

Our modelling shows demand increasing from an estimated 3,291 FTEs in 2024 to an estimated 11,150 FTE in 2030. The highest workforce demand is expected in construction, particularly for ground-mounted projects. These jobs will be a combination of permanent and temporary roles that will exist for the duration of a project.

O&M jobs will be sustained over a period of time, with staff based on site or in close proximity. A number of the construction jobs will also be permanent, albeit mobile, i.e. involving teams of construction workers moving from site to site.

Further information on how these figures have been estimated is provided in Appendix C.

Using the bottom-up modelling approach, the Table 6 shows the estimated total number of FTEs created each year and the average number of FTEs per year over the seven-year period.

The estimates above are subject to change as the industry experiences ongoing activities in, for example, standardisation of the application process and the rapid changes in policy and consenting processes, as highlighted during discussions with Solar Energy UK.

This modelling approach shows demand increasing from an estimated 1,219 FTEs in 2024 to an estimated 5,848 FTE in 2030.

The average number of FTEs created at the feasibility and constructions stages, over the period 2024 -2030, is estimated at around 1,900. Some of these jobs will be permanent but many will be temporary, mainly appearing during peak construction times. The average number of FTEs created at the O&M stage, over the same period is estimated at around 1,400. Most of these jobs are likely to be sustained beyond 2030.

There will be a particularly high demand for electrical specialists such as electricians, energy yield assessors and grid connection engineers, as these skills are also sought after in other areas of the energy industry. Additionally, the need for construction workers, including civil contractors, general labourers, and operators, will grow quickly to support the building of solar projects.

A detailed breakdown of the estimated job roles by project type and by stage in the project lifecycle is provided in Appendix D.

The FTE job numbers from the top-down model are consistently higher than those from the bottom-up model, although both show similar growth trends. The numbers from the top-down model could, therefore, be interpreted as the upper limit and those from the bottom-up model as the lower limit.

Details of the number of FTE for each job role to deliver 4 GW installed capacity are provided in Appendix C. For this scenario, a further breakdown of jobs into project lifecycle stages was not undertaken, as the 4 GW scenario has not been broken down into ground-mounted, commercial rooftop, and domestic rooftop projects in the way it has for the 6 GW ambition.

Limitations and uncertainties

Results should be interpreted with consideration of the model’s core assumptions, limitations and broader uncertainties in the industry.

The presented models are built on the assumption of workforce intensity per MW installed solar capacity (FTE/MW). This ratio is calculated from LCREE 2021 employment data and a combination of data sources indicating the installed capacity in 2021 (the full methodology is described in the Appendix C). All models assume that the 6 GW installed capacity will be met in 2030.

Mode limitations include the following:

• There are uncertainties associated with the underlying LCREE data, particularly for smaller sectors such as solar PV, where estimates are subject to volatility. Additionally, LCREE estimates are survey-based and gather information from a sample rather than the whole population, meaning that they are subject to sampling uncertainty.
• The top-down model is based on 2021 workforce requirements per MW to estimate future workforce needs. This was the most up to date dataset available at the time this work was undertaken. This approach does not account for potential shifts in workforce efficiency, automation, or technological breakthroughs that could impact the industry.
• The bottom-up model forecasts FTE with total forecasted FTE numbers broken down into specific job roles, acknowledging the short lifespan of some solar projects, especially commercial (< 1 year) and domestic PV (< 1 week) rooftop projects. Although the model normalises the transient jobs in terms of project duration and installed capacity, it is important to recognise that not all FTEs projected by the model will be sustained in the long-term.
• Some jobs will be realised before the start of construction, e.g. those in planning stages of a project, might be realised a year before the construction work. This is particularly relevant for ground-mounted projects. In the absence of information on how quickly different types of projects will move through the planning pipeline, we have assumed in the bottom-up model that FTEs for ground-mounted feasibility stages are created one year before the construction stage. It was not possible to do this for the top-down modelling as the underlying data is not broken down in sufficient detail.

Lastly, the model data should be interpreted in the context of broader developments and uncertainties in the sector that affect the project pipeline.

Predicting the geographical distribution of solar skills demand

Revisiting the REPD, we analysed the pipeline of solar projects awaiting construction and in planning.^[8] This determines the geographical distribution of projects and, therefore, the location of the demand for skills, see Figure 5.

Figure 5: Heat map of solar projects awaiting construction and in planning.

Colour coding: yellow represents a relatively lower concentration of project numbers and red represents a relatively higher concentration of project numbers.

The REPD does not include pipeline data for domestic solar installations. It can be assumed, however, that the majority of domestic installations will be concentrated in the main population centres across the central belt of Scotland, the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, the East and North East of Scotland and around the Inverness area. This is largely in line with the REPD data in the figure above.

Domestic rooftop installations are expected to require a workforce that is anchored in a particular geographical location, for both construction and O&M project phases, with companies delivering services to local customers. As noted above, this will be concentrated in and around the main clusters of population.

On basis of the current experience in the sector, we expect that construction, installation and commissioning of larger ground-mounted and commercial rooftop systems will require teams of workers moving from site to site around the country. These types of installations may require dedicated O&M staff but numbers are likely to be small, as described previously. The number of ground mounted systems under construction, awaiting construction or for which planning has been submitted is shown in the following figure (analysis of the REPD database – December 2023 data). The figures in brackets indicate the installed capacity in MW.

Figure 6: Number (and MW of installed capacity) of ground mounted systems under construction, awaiting construction or for which planning has been submitted, by council area.

This demonstrates that many of these projects will be located in more rural and less densely populated regions of Scotland where there is availability of land at a size appropriate for larger ground mounted systems. The solar potential of an area is also likely to be an important factor, with the East and South West of Scotland tending to have higher levels of solar potential (Global Solar Atlas, 2024). The projects that will be required to achieve 4-6 GW installed capacity do not yet exist, so it can only be assumed, at this stage, that future projects will be deployed in a similar manner in less densely populated regions.

For many of the development activities at the start of the solar PV project lifecycle, location may not be a concern, as much of this work will be desk-based and can be done from anywhere in the country and, possibly, not even in Scotland.

Solar industry skills demand

Skills challenges

To further clarify the job roles and skills that will be in demand as the industry evolves, we engaged with stakeholders as described in the sections above. One of the strongest messages from stakeholder consultations is that there are significant skills shortages at every level and across each stage of the solar project lifecycle. This was highlighted by nine of the ten stakeholders that provided input and was confirmed by members of Solar Energy Scotland when the initial report findings were presented to them. This is not, however, specific to the solar industry and is being experienced by numerous industry sectors across the UK that rely on engineers and tradespeople. One industry stakeholder noted “there are simply not enough people going into engineering^[9].”

This is leading to widespread problems for companies in attracting and, importantly, retaining staff. Competition for staff is increasing and this, in turn, is driving up costs. The “brain drain” to the south-east of England was also cited by one company stakeholder as a contributing factor with people being attracted by higher salaries and a wider range of job opportunities. This was also validated by members of Solar Energy Scotland at the meeting in Glasgow in March 2024.

Some of the main skills shortages highlighted include electricians, engineers (electrical, structural and civil), roofers, ground-workers and, in general, construction workers. Six of the ten stakeholders consulted highlighted these specific disciplines. This is discussed in more detail in the context of the solar PV project lifecycle below.

Engineering skills

At the first stage of the lifecycle, project development, there is a requirement for engineers and designers that specialise in solar PV systems. Some stakeholders indicated that these are niche roles and many of the relevant degree courses (such as electrical engineering, civil and structural engineering, and architecture), college courses and apprenticeships (electricians and construction) are quite general. This means that people are coming into the industry with good, general, technical skills but do need to undergo further upskilling to meet specific requirements for solar projects. One interviewee said that “the vocational Graduate Apprenticeship Scheme needs to be broadened to include electrical engineering as the current scheme does not support it…we are crying out for this.”

Some companies in the sector (including all five of the company stakeholders consulted) are, therefore, developing these skills in-house either through on-the-job training or, in some cases, by setting up their own skills academies. Extending or modifying existing university courses and apprenticeships to allow some degree of specialisation in renewable energy technologies, including solar, could go some way to addressing this issue. There is also a strong demand for project managers as their skills are very transferable across all renewable energy sectors, not just solar. This was highlighted by one industry association stakeholder that represents companies across the renewable energy sector.

There were no specific skills shortages highlighted in relation to the construction, installation and operation of large ground-mounted solar projects other than the more general UK wide shortages of engineers and tradespeople. Large ground-mounted solar projects are often undertaken by engineering, procurement and construction companies specialising in this type of work. As the number of such projects in the UK, and especially Scotland, is low, the associated workforce tends to be mobile, moving from site to site.

Roofer skills

For both domestic and rooftop projects the chronic shortage of roofers, especially slaters and tilers, both of which are required for solar PV installation, was highlighted by more than 50% of industry stakeholders as well as an industry association consulted during this study. Furthermore, the average age of a competent roofer is over 50 with 60% of the workforce expected to retire in the next five years^[10]. There are not enough people coming into the industry to cover these losses so skills shortages are expected to deteriorate. Roofing skills are, however, essential to undertake an appropriate survey, assess what is possible and install the correct brackets, fixings and panels. One industry association stakeholder commented that diversifying into the installation of solar PV would seem like a logical move for many companies but workforce shortages mean that companies are already overbooked, so the appetite for new opportunities is often limited.

Electrician skills

The other key trade required for rooftop projects is electricians and, again, skills shortages were highlighted by over 50% of the stakeholders consulted. Careful consideration needs to be given, however, when discussing skills, particularly with respect to the installation of solar PV systems in new build properties (domestic or commercial) versus retrofit. At a general level, the electrical skills for both are the same. New build projects, whether housing or commercial, tend to be managed by a lead contractor or project manager that co-ordinates and oversees all activities, including electrical work. This lead contractor should ensure that all construction workers on site have the appropriate level of training and skills required. Retrofitted systems, especially domestic, often will not be project managed and electricians, therefore, need to coordinate with other trades (e.g. roofers) and have overall responsibility for the correct and, more importantly, safe installation and operation of the system. Three company stakeholders and one industry association indicated that this is where some problems can arise, especially if electricians are not trained to appropriate standards and there is little or no oversight of the work they are doing.

Fitting of solar systems, especially in a domestic situation, is not regulated and there is no requirement for engineers or trades to achieve a specified level of training or recognised certification with stakeholders commenting that: “anyone can do it and this leads to quality problems” and that “there is no definition of what a competent installer should be able to do.”

The Microgeneration Certification Scheme (MCS) aims to address some of these issues by working with industry to define, maintain and improve standards for low carbon energy technologies, including solar PV, as well as provide a database of certified contractors. Companies can obtain certification by meeting certain standards which demonstrate their competency but there is no obligation for them to do this.

Planning and distribution network operator skills

Skills shortages in allied sectors (see Appendix B for details) were also cited by three company stakeholders, two industry association stakeholders and during the Solar Energy Scotland meeting as causing issues, which will become more severe as the number, scale and complexity of projects increases. Key job roles for which there are already widespread shortages include DNO engineers and local authority planners. A report published in 2020 (Scottish Renewables, 2020) highlighted that the number of planners employed by councils across Scotland fell by 20% between 2011 and 2020. This shortage of planners, and the resulting delays to the progression of projects that this causes was also highlighted by five of the ten stakeholders consulted, both company and industry association. Furthermore, one company stakeholder and two industry association stakeholders cited the significant shortage of DNO engineers with the required level of competency in solar PV as a major issue, particularly in Scotland where renewable energy generation is much more strongly focused on onshore and offshore wind and hydropower. Skills and competencies have, therefore, developed accordingly.

International solar industry skills strategy development

For the solar PV industry, skills demand is affected by structure of the global supply chain as well as the cross-sectoral nature of installation and maintenance requirements. In 2023, it was estimated that global solar PV employment involved nearly 4.9 million jobs (IRENA, 2023), and almost 40% of workers along the solar PV supply chain require formal training (e.g. electrical engineers and technicians), while 60% require minimal formal training (IRENA, 2021). There is a significant overlap in the skills needed with existing job roles not only across the energy sector, but also in petrochemicals, manufacturing, construction, and other sectors.

The following provides a brief overview of some of the strategies put in place internationally to support the development of the skills in the solar industry.

USA

The USA’s Solar Energy Technologies Office accelerates the advancement and deployment of solar technology to support “an equitable transition to a decarbonised economy” (US Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2023). It funds solar energy research and development efforts in seven main categories, one of which is solar workforce development. According to the Solar Energy Technologies Office, the US solar workforce will need to grow from approximately 250,000 workers in 2021 to between 500,000 and 1,500,000 workers by 2035. As a result, the Office is funding a range of workforce development initiatives including online and in-person training and education programs, work-based learning opportunities, such as internships and apprenticeships, collegiate competitions, certification programs, and support services such as career counselling, mentorship, and job readiness.

To address the critical need for high-quality and locally accessible training for solar installation, the U.S. Department of Energy established the Solar Training Network (US Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Solar Training Network, 2023). It brings together solar industry representatives, workforce development subject matter experts, diversity group leaders, and other key industry stakeholders to develop and deliver the specialised training needed to meet the demand for skilled workers.

European Union

In May 2022, the European Commission proposed a new strategy, REPowerEU (European Commission, 2023), in response to the energy market disruption caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This includes a target to more than double solar PV capacity to reach 600 GW by 2030, up from 160 GW in 2021. One of its components, the European Solar Rooftop initiative, sets a legal obligation to install solar panels on new buildings, as well as public buildings. Under more ambitious targets of 750 GW and 1 terawatt installed capacity, that Solar Power Europe (Solar Power Europe, 2022) is advocating, solar energy employment could exceed 1 million jobs (457,000 direct + 576,000 indirect) and 1.5 million jobs respectively, as shown in Figure 7.

Figure 7: Solar sector jobs in 2030 to achieve EU installed capacity targets. Adapted from Solar Power Europe 2022

The EU is promoting employment in the solar industry through initiatives such as the Solar Works platform (Solar Power Europe, Solar Works Platform, 2023) which is a combined jobs board and course advertisement resource for those looking to enter the industry. The electrical skills sector is closely collaborating with developments in solar energy as the key element in the solar deployment value chain.

UK and Scotland

The UK British Energy Security Strategy outlines an ambition to increase the solar capacity in the UK from the current 16 GW to 70 GW by 2035 (House of Commons Library, 2023). To develop and drive forward a plan to achieve this target, a government-industry Solar Task Force has been set up. It has established four topic-specific sub-groups, one of which is focused on skills (Solar Energy UK, 2023). This will focus on the development and delivery of the skills and training needed in the solar industry in the short- and long-term.

Options for closing any current or future skills gaps

The general consensus amongst the stakeholders consulted as part of the study was that, in future, the types of skills required will remain much as they are now as the solar PV project lifecycle will, largely, remain the same. The consensus is that the current setup needs to be scaled up. A key message from all stakeholders is that more people with relevant and transferrable skills will need to be attracted into the industry at all levels and across the various job roles. It is likely that many of these individuals will require retraining or upskilling to meet the specific requirements of the solar industry. Given the growth of the sector that will be required to achieve 6 GW of installed capacity and the small size of many of the companies operating in the solar PV industry, especially domestic solar PV, some external support may be required.

Stakeholders indicated, however, that the construction industry, of which the installation of solar PV is considered to be part, is very traditional, conservative and male dominated. It is not considered to be an attractive career option for many people, especially women, despite a number of stakeholders indicating that there should be more focus on attracting women into the industry. Therefore, greater effort is needed to encourage a younger and more diverse workforce to enter the sector. These will be people coming through further and higher education systems via apprenticeships, or certificate, diploma and degree programmes. These individuals will be critical three to four years from now when installation activity will need to ramp up quickly to achieve 6 GW installed capacity. For those entering technical roles, there will be a need to ensure that existing training, apprenticeships and degree programmes are tailored, or new programmes created as appropriate, to meet the needs of the solar PV industry now and in the future. There is a need, therefore, for concerted action to increase the visibility of the sector to individuals in secondary, further and higher education. These are the people that could address potential workforce shortfalls towards the end of this decade and into the 2030s. This may require a more strategic and co-ordinated approach with industry, training providers, schools and relevant government bodies working in partnership to develop interventions to meet the forecast numbers of skilled workers.

In parallel, raising the awareness of the broad range of career opportunities, directly or indirectly associated with the solar PV sector, would be beneficial as an additional means of attracting more people, and especially young people, into the industry. A good example is the Solar Career Map developed by the USA’s Interstate Renewable Energy Council (Interstate Renewable Energy Council, 2024) which covers the broad spectrum of job roles, potential salaries and routes to career progression.

As has been highlighted previously, the UK as a whole, is suffering from engineering related skills shortages and the skills that are in demand in the solar PV sector will also be in demand from other parts of the renewable energy industry and other industries. Many of the stakeholders interviewed during this study indicated skills for solar PV cannot, therefore, be considered in isolation and that a more strategic action is required to understand the number of jobs roles that will be required to meet the targets and ambitions of relevant industries (e.g. installed capacity ambition in renewable energy and house-building targets in construction) and identify those for which there will be competing demands. This would provide a baseline on which future skills development interventions could build.

Conclusions

Based on the evidence gathered during this study, there are significant skilled workforce shortages in Scotland’s solar industry. This applies to all project lifecycle stages. The workforce currently employed in the industry has adequate skills, according to our stakeholder engagement, however, the number of people working in the industry will need to increase rapidly for the deployment of 4 to 6 GW installed capacity aspirations.

If this shortage is not resolved, the impact on the ability to achieve this installed capacity will be significant. This will be further exacerbated by increasing competition for a pool of skilled workforce that is already insufficient to meet demand from both the solar industry and other parts of the renewable energy sector as well as industry sectors, such as construction.

Specific project findings include:

• Delivering 6 GW of solar PV by 2030 could result in the number of jobs expanding from approximately 800 FTE in 2022 (LCREE data) to a maximum of just over 11,000 FTE in 2030. This includes 9,100 FTE for construction related activities, almost 82% of the workforce. Many of these jobs will be temporary and mobile, mainly appearing during peak construction times.
• Operations and maintenance jobs will increase from an estimated 184 FTE in 2024 to an estimated 2,000 FTE in 2030. These job roles are more likely to be permanent and sustained in the following years.
• The pipeline of projects to achieve 6 GW installed capacity does not yet exist, so is it not possible to state definitively the geographical locations that will have the highest additional skills demand. Based on an analysis of the current ground-mounted and commercial rooftop project pipeline (REPD 2023), Aberdeenshire, Angus, Fife and Tayside are the local authorities with the highest expected MW of installed capacity, 54% of the total, and, therefore, will be the areas with the highest demand for construction FTEs and, subsequently, for operations and maintenance FTEs.
• The growth in the number of domestic rooftop installations that will be required to meet the 1.5 GW installed capacity aspiration for this type of projects by 2030 is more likely to result in a construction, installation and maintenance workforce that is anchored in a particular geographical location, with companies delivering services to local customers. This will be concentrated in and around the main clusters of population in Scotland.
• As these skills are also sought after in other parts of the energy and other industries, there will be a particularly high demand for:
• electrical specialists like electricians: 589 FTE by 2030
• grid connection engineers: 394 FTE by 2030
• high voltage technicians: 494 by 2030
• electrical engineers: 132 FTE by 2030.
• The need for the following job roles will increase quickly to support the build of larger solar projects:
• construction workers, including civil contractors: 791 FTE by 2030
• general labourers and operators: 383 FTE by 2030,
• crane operators and lifting contractors: 496 FTE by 2030 and
• roofing contractors: 342 FTE by 2030.

These are also skills that are readily transferable to and in demand from other parts of the renewable energy sector, as well as the construction sector.

• Existing skills shortages in ‘allied sectors’ such as energy system operation, DNOs and local authority planning are causing delays to the planning, approval and construction of solar projects. A combined average of 73 FTE of these allied sector job roles will be required each year to enable solar PV project developments.

Recommendations

Actions to address skills shortages in Scotland will be essential for the success of Scotland’s solar PV industry in its aspiration to achieve 6 GW of installed capacity, as well as for the achievement of Scotland’s broader renewable energy objectives. The development and delivery of these actions should be led by industry, but will require support from and collaboration with schools, colleges, universities, training providers and relevant public sector bodies.

Based on the evidence gathered during this study the suggested actions to address skills challenges include:

• Develop strategies to raise awareness and promote the solar PV industry to attract new entrants. These should highlight the sector’s net zero and sustainability credentials and be designed for primary, secondary, further and higher education students, as well as individuals already in the workforce. These should clearly illustrate the wide range of potential career pathways for individuals at all levels of education, recognising that younger generations, in particular, are far more mobile in the workforce.
• Build on the work that is already being done by, for example, the Solar Task Force skills working group, to design and specify renewable energy and specific solar PV course content. Potential options identified during this study could include:
• a dedicated apprenticeship in renewable energy
• college and university courses such as electrical engineering and apprenticeships, such as electrician and construction, with opportunities to specialise in renewable energy and solar PV system installation.
• extension of the vocational graduate apprenticeship scheme to cover a wider range of subjects, such as electrical engineering.

References

Office for National Statistics (2021). Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) Survey. Available at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/finalestimates/2021

ClimateXChange (2024). Workforce and skills requirements in Scotland’s onshore wind industry. Available at Workforce and skills requirements in Scotland’s onshore wind industry | ClimateXChange

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (2023). Renewable Energy Planning Database. Available at https://www.data.gov.uk/dataset/a5b0ed13-c960-49ce-b1f6-3a6bbe0db1b7/renewable-energy-planning-database-repd

The Microgeneration Certification Scheme Installations Database (2023). Available at https://certificate.microgenerationcertification.org/

Solar Energy Scotland (2023). Scotland’s fair share: Solar’s role in achieving net zero in Scotland. Available at https://solarenergyuk.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/1SES-Scotlands-fair-share-FINAL-PDF-Version.pdf

Scottish Parliament, Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee (2023). Available at https://www.parliament.scot/-/media/files/committees/net-zero-energy-and-transport-committee/correspondence/2023/solar-ambition-for-scotland-28-october-2023.pdf

International Energy Agency (2023). More information available at https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables/solar-pv

International Energy Agency (2023). Renewables 2023 analysis and forecast to 2028. Available at https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/96d66a8b-d502-476b-ba94-54ffda84cf72/Renewables_2023.pdf

International Energy Agency (2022). Special report on solar PV global supply chains. Available at https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/d2ee601d-6b1a-4cd2-a0e8-db02dc64332c/SpecialReportonSolarPVGlobalSupplyChains.pdf

Scottish Land and Estates, 2023. More information available at https://www.scottishlandandestates.co.uk/helping-it-happen/case-studies

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (2023). UK energy in brief. Available at https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6581cb5aed3c34000d3bfbfc/UK_Energy_in_Brief_2023.pdf

M Sodhia, L Banaszeka, C Mageeb, M Rivero-Hude, “Economic lifetimes of solar panels”, 29th CIRP Life cycle engineering conference, 2022

Changeworks (2024). More information available at https://www.changeworks.org.uk/energy-advice/heat-your-home-efficiently/renewable-energy/solar-panels/#:~:text=our%20insulation%20guides.-,Solar%20panels%20in%20Scotland%3F,to%20power%20around%2090%2C000%20homes

Engineering and Technology (2023). Government urged to plug STEM skills gap at earliest school age. More information available at https://eandt.theiet.org/content/articles/2021/11/engineering-and-tech-giants-join-forces-to-stem-15bn-annual-skills-gap/#:~:text=In%20June%20this%20year%2C%20the,per%20business%20in%20the%20UK

Global Solar Atlas (2024). More information available at https://globalsolaratlas.info/map?c=56.736658,-5.705568,6&s=54.863963,-4.614258&m=site

Scottish Renewables (2020). Planning logjam ‘threatens net-zero’, renewable energy industry warns. More information available at https://www.scottishrenewables.com/news/736-planning-logjam-threatens-net-zero-renewable-energy-industry-warns

IRENA (2023). Renewable energy and jobs annual review 2023. Available at https://mc-cd8320d4-36a1-40ac-83cc-3389-cdn-endpoint.azureedge.net/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Sep/IRENA_Renewable_energy_and_jobs_2023.pdf?rev=4c35bf5a1222429e8f0bf932a641f818

IRENA (2021). Renewable energy and jobs annual review 2021. Available at https://www.irena.org/publications/2021/Oct/Renewable-Energy-and-Jobs-Annual-Review-2021

US Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (2023). More information available at https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-energy-technologies-office

US Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (2023). Solar Training Network. More information available at https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/solar-training-network

European Commission (2023). REPowerEU sustainable energy strategy (2022). Available at https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/priorities-2019-2024/european-green-deal/repowereu-affordable-secure-and-sustainable-energy-europe_en

Solar Power Europe (2022). More information available at https://www.solarpowereurope.org/

Solar Power Europe (2023). #SolarWorks job platform. More information available at https://www.solarworksplatform.org/nl

EuropeOn (2021). Powering green jobs growth with electrical contractors: the job potential of electric renovations and prosumer installations. Available at https://europe-on.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/EuropeOn_Job-Potential-Study-2021_Public.pdf

House of Commons Library (2023). Planning and solar farms. More information available at https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cdp-2023-0168/

Solar Energy UK (2023). Solar taskforce drives forward on grid access, supply chain, skills and the rooftop market. More information available at https://solarenergyuk.org/news/solar-taskforce-drives-forward-on-grid-access-supply-chain-skills-and-the-rooftop-market/

Interstate Renewable Energy Council (2024). Solar Career Map. More information available at https://www.irecsolarcareermap.org/

Local Government Associations (2023). Available at https://www.local.gov.uk/about/news/1300-clean-power-projects-permission-awaiting-construction-say-councils

National Grid (2020). Available at https://www.nationalgrid.com/document/126256/download

Scottish Government (2023). More information available at https://www.gov.scot/policies/energy-infrastructure/energy-consents/

The MJ (2023). Available at https://www.themj.co.uk/Addressing-the-great-local-government-recruitment-crisis/230614

Scottish Government, 2021). More information available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/householder-permitted-development-rights-guidance-updated-2021/pages/6/

Solar Energy UK (2024). Reported on at https://solarenergyuk.org/scottish-government-eases-planning-restrictions-for-solar-energy/

Office for National Statistics (2021). Available at https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/finalestimates/2021

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (2023). Available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/solar-photovoltaics-deployment

Appendix / Appendices

Appendix A – Stakeholder consultation process

In total, ten stakeholders were consulted as part of this study to obtain their insights on current workforce needs and how they might change in the future. The organisations that provided input are shown in the table below.

The interview structure approved by the project steering group and used to guide the stakeholder discussions, is as follows:

• Lifecycle of a solar installation project: could you talk us through the typical lifecycle of a solar installation project and the key workforce needs at each stage?
• Project-specific workforce requirements: for your current and upcoming projects, what specific job roles and skills levels are a priority for you?
• Workforce composition and numbers: what does the workforce composition look like in terms of job roles and numbers for a typical solar project (rooftop installation versus ground-based project)?
• Skill level assessment: how are the skill levels required for various job roles assessed for each installation or project?
• Skills gaps: are there any skills shortages or gaps being faced by the industry currently? If yes, in which job categories and which geographic areas
• In-house training: What, if any, training is provided in-house, including existing apprenticeship programmes
• Attracting and retaining talent: if you are an employer, do you experience recruitment difficulties for any specific roles?
• Future demand for skills: what skills will be required to achieve the proposed ambition of 4-6 GW of solar capacity by 2030 and what is the likely demand for these skills (i.e. to what size will the workforce grow)? Do you predict any changes in a typical lifecycle of a solar project that would require new/different skills?
• New skills: are there any challenges or changes in the solar industry that are creating demand for new skills or new job roles?
• Competition for skills: is there competition for skills from other industries or from other parts of the UK / Europe? Is the solar industry in Scotland attracting skills from elsewhere? Are there any synergies between the workforce in solar and other sectors (e.g., electrical)?
• Skills development and training: Are universities, colleges and vocational training institutes delivering skills development and training required by the industry? What role can they play in addressing any skill gaps identified?

In addition, the draft findings of this study were presented to members of Solar Energy Scotland, the Scottish working group of Solar Energy UK, at a meeting held in Glasgow in March 2024. At this meeting, further insight into skills requirements now and in the future were provided with additional written feedback provided by email.

Appendix B – Solar Industry Context

This section explores policies and skills demands in allied sectors that will influence the development of the Scottish solar industry.

Electricity System Operation

Electricity system operation (ESO) in the UK is undergoing rapid change as it responds to an exponential increase in pressures associated with planning and operating the UK’s gas and electricity networks as the number and complexity of electricity projects increases. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the waiting time for renewable energy projects to be connected to the grid is, currently, extending into the late 2030s(Local Government Association, 2023).

Seven of the nine individual stakeholders contacted during this study highlighted that the delays to grid connection is the main bottleneck in the industry and is the one issue that is most likely to impact on the deployment of solar PV. Without a strong pipeline of projects progressing through planning and onto construction and operation, jobs will not be created.

In 2020, the National Grid estimated that across their activities, the future energy workforce requirements to 2050 will include approximately 400,000 FTE, of which 260,000 will be an additional demand (i.e. an increase in the overall workforce requirements) and 140,000 will be replacing those leaving the workforce, for example, by retiring (National Grid, 2020). Of these jobs, 48,700 will be based in Scotland. The report highlights the appetite for data, digital, and engineering skills (at technician and graduate levels). Very little has been reported, however, on the upstream skills requirements, including preparation of the regulatory documentation (e.g., Data Registration Code), review of the documentation, environmental skills and competencies, and other enablers of project compliance. Stakeholders consulted during this study, however, have highlighted the challenges being faced by companies across the renewables energy sector, not just solar PV, due to staff shortages at the National Grid and other distribution network operators. One company stakeholder commented “the biggest barrier is the grid.”

Consenting bodies

Electricity generation with a capacity exceeding 50 MW must be submitted to the Scottish Government’s Energy Consents Unit for consideration by Scottish Ministers. Those below 50 MW are authorised by the local planning authority (Scottish Government, 2023).

The REPD database (data extracted for December 2023) shows that there were only four project applications made to the Energy Consents Unit, two of which have been granted planning permission and are awaiting construction. The remaining two are still awaiting planning permission. This means that the bulk of applications must go through local planning authorities and, as far back as 2020, Scottish Renewables was highlighting a renewable energy planning ‘log jam’ that could jeopardise Scotland’s net zero targets. This issue was detailed in a report (Scottish Renewables, 2020) that concluded this issue was, in part, due to the increasing number of planning applications being submitted at the same time as a fall in the number of planners employed by councils across Scotland – 20% between 2011 and 2020 – when this Scottish Renewables report was published. Many of the stakeholders consulted during this study also highlighted this as an issue. Quotes from the interviewees include: “local authority planners are totally stretched,” and “it can take two to three months to get a response from planning and then another two to three months to get a building warrant. This has a major impact on workflows.” Councils are also known to struggle with hiring and retention of staff (The MJ, 2023).

The REPD database (December 2023) includes information relating to when planning applications are submitted and, subsequently, when planning permission is granted. For commercial rooftop projects the data shows that this ranges from four weeks to seven months with the majority being in the range two to three months, which reflects the comments made by stakeholders.

In Scotland, the installation of rooftop projects can be done under permitted development if they meet a set of rules covering minor modifications or improvements made to the outside of homes and commercial buildings. The Scottish Government has produced guidelines (Scottish Government, 2021) on householder permitted development rights and what can be built without submitting a planning application. Any domestic installations that do not meet these rules will require planning permission.

On March 28^th 2024 a statutory instrument was put before the Scottish Parliament announcing new measures to help simplify the planning rules (Solar Energy UK, 2024). Amongst the most significant changes are:

• A proposal to remove the current 50 kW limit for permitted development on rooftop solar installations. Currently, any rooftop solar PV installation of 50 kW (approx. 220m²) or greater, must be subject to a full planning application.
• Solar PV installation in conservation areas can be a permitted development under certain circumstances, such as not on primary elevations or facing roads.
• Flat roof solar PV systems can be installed under permitted development provided they do not protrude more than one meter from the roof surface.

These changes are considered to be a significant step forward, streamlining the processes and making it easier to design and install solar PV systems.

Appendix C – Modelling methodology

Background

The top-down model was built using LCREE Survey estimates for the UK between 2014 and 2021 (Office for National Statistics, 2021) that provides FTE job estimates per country and per Standard Industry Classification (SIC) code in relation to the solar sector. Therefore, the solar employment in SIC D: Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply was used as a proxy measure for the number of FTEs in solar project operation and installation in Scotland and SIC F: Construction to estimate the number of FTEs in construction. It is noted that SIC codes are not broken down at a Scotland level so it was assumed that the UK breakdown applies to Scotland. Using the REPD 2021, the capacity (MWelec) in construction and in operation in the solar sector for ground-mounted and commercial rooftop projects was calculated. The datasets describing the sector’s activity in 2021 were used as these were the most recent available at the time of the preparation of this report (LCREE 2022 was released in March 2024), and to allow the comparability with the parallel study focusing on the economic activity and skills requirements of the onshore wind sector (ClimateXChange, 2024). The overview of the data sources and outputs of the models are presented in the main body of the report.

The cumulative MWelec of domestic rooftop projects was estimated using the solar PV deployment database(Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 2023) and the MCS installations database. These official data sources then yielded the core assumptions of FTE/MWelec in construction and FTE/MWelec in the operation of solar energy projects.

We used REPD data (ground-mounted and commercial rooftop) and MSC data (domestic rooftop) to estimate installed solar capacity in 2021-2023 and the assumption that 6 GW total installed capacity will be met in 2030. The capacity increase between 2023 and 2030 was proportionately divided into three fractions as follows:

• 20% in 2025-2026
• 30% in 2027-2028
• 50% in 2028-2030.

This forecast served as a hypothetical deployment pipeline as the project pipeline to achieve 6 GW of installed capacity does not yet exist. Subsequently, the FTE requirements over the period 2024 – 2030 are entirely dependent on this hypothetical capacity deployment pathway. They could look differently under a different capacity deployment scenario. To note, the prediction for installed capacity in 2024 is based on the sum of already operational projects and projects in construction in 2023.

We used the 2019-2023 REPD data as the industry’s past performance measure and the 6 GW as the assumed capacity in 2030. This was broken down as follows: 3.5 GW ground-mounted, 1.5 GW domestic rooftop, and 1 GW from commercial rooftop. In consultation with technical experts from ITPEnergised, a possible scenario for the installed capacity increase was predicted. The overall workforce requirements in construction and operation of solar projects were then calculated on an annual basis.

For the bottom-up modelling we used the in-house expertise of IPTEnergised and input provided by stakeholders to develop a jobs matrix that describes the stages of a typical solar project across the three project types (ground-mounted, commercial rooftop and domestic rooftop) in terms of FTE requirements. We then modelled how workforce requirements in each job role could increase in the context of the forecasted installed capacity.

Top-down modelling of solar capacity increase and total FTE forecast

The assumptions to top down modelling are presented in Figure 8 and described in section 11.3.1.

Capacity increase model	FTE

Bottom-up modelling of job roles and total FTE demands

As indicated previously, conventional bottom-up modelling for the economic activity forecast in the sector is not feasible due to the fact that the projects that will enable a 6 GW deployment are not yet in the development pipeline. As a result, a typical solar project and its workforce requirements have been simulated, based on the following assumptions:

Using the in-house expertise of IPTEnergised, an established project developer, the job roles required for each project type and at each project stage of the project lifecycle were defined and an estimate made of the FTE for each job role by project type. The number of projects necessary to achieve the 3.5 GW ground-mounted, 1.5 GW domestic rooftop and 1 GW commercial rooftop capacities were calculated and the number of FTEs multiplied accordingly. In the absence of robust information on how quickly different types of projects will move through the planning pipeline, we have assumed that FTEs for ground-mounted feasibility stages are created one year before the construction stage.

Where possible, the job roles and FTE calculations were validated during the stakeholder interview process. In this way, heat maps have been created that illustrate potential workforce requirements across different project types and stages. The heatmap for 6 GW installed capacity is shown in the main body of the report. The heatmap for the 4 GW installed capacity is shown below.

The full selection of heat maps by project type can be found in Appendix D. This is for 6 GW installed capacity only. As the 4 GW capacity has not been broken down by ground-mounted, commercial rooftop and domestic rooftop in the same way as the 6 GW capacity, it was not possible to undertake the same level of modelling and analysis, including modelling of one-year lag time between the realisation of FTEs associated with ground-mounted feasibility and construction stages.

Top-down and bottom-up model convergence

Two modelling approaches were developed that sought to:

• Predict the total annual FTE that could enable the delivery of 6 GW solar installed capacity in the timeframe 2024 – 2030.
• Estimate the job roles and their FTE requirements on annual basis.

The FTE job numbers calculated using the top-down modelling approach are consistently higher that the FTE job numbers calculated using the bottom-up modelling approach, although both show similar growth trends. The numbers from the top-down model could, therefore, be interpreted as the upper limit and those from the bottom-up model as the lower limit.

The breakdown into annual FTEs is shown in the figure below.

Figure 9: Workforce Requirements – Comparing the Two Modelling Approaches (FTE)

Appendix D – Workforce requirements by project type and at each stage of the project lifecycle

The following heatmaps show the number and types of jobs required annually to 2030, broken down by project type and at each stage of the project lifecycle. Decommissioning has not been included as solar systems have not yet reached this stage of the lifecycle in Scotland and it is not, therefore, possible to estimate job numbers with any certainty. As noted above, this is only possible for 6 GW capacity as the 4 GW capacity has not been broken down into the different project types.

Ground mounted projects – 6 GW installed capacity

Table 9: Ground mounted projects – 6 GW installed capacity scenario, FTE requirements by job role

Domestic rooftop projects – 6 GW capacity

© The University of Edinburgh, 2024.
Prepared by Optimat and ITPEnergised on behalf of ClimateXChange, The University of Edinburgh. All rights reserved.

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

If you require the report in an alternative format such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

1. 
   

   This estimate comes from data extracted from the Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD) (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 2023), which covers ground-based projects and commercial roof-top installations of 100 kilowatts (KW) and above, and the Microgeneration Certification Scheme installations database (Microgeneration Certification Scheme, 2023), which covers most domestic rooftop installations. ↑

   
   
2. 
   

   REPD states that a project that does not require planning permission has been announced by the developer. ↑

   
   
3. 
   

   PVs will continue to generate power after the 25-30 year lifetime duration, but performance and efficiency are likely to decline (M Sodhia, L Banaszeka, C Mageeb, M Rivero-Hude, 2022) ↑

   
   
4. 
   

   Information provided by ITPEnergised based on the company’s experience of delivering large scale ground-mounted PV solar projects ↑

   
   
5. 
   

   Information provided by industry stakeholders involved in the installation of commercial and domestic rooftop projects consulted during this study ↑

   
   
6. 
   

   This includes the provision of environmental and energy consulting services; solar design services for both ground and roof mounted solar PV; yield assessments and due diligence services. ↑

   
   
7. 
   

   HNC: Higher National Certificate, HND: Higher National Diploma, GWO: Global Wind Organisation ↑

   
   
8. 
   

   This includes projects for which the planning application was originally rejected and an appeal subsequently lodged ↑

   
   
9. 
   

   Technical skills shortages are long-standing issues, with a shortfall of over 173,000 workers identified in science, technology, engineering and maths disciplines in 2021 (Engineering and Technology, 2023). ↑

   
   
10. 
    

    Information provided during an interview with an industry association stakeholder consulted as part of this study. ↑

    
    

The purpose of this study was to:

• identify the range of skills needed by the onshore wind industry to increase onshore wind capacity to a minimum of 20 GW by 2030
• inform the enhancement of skills and training provision to meet future sector needs.

Researchers interviewed Scottish onshore wind stakeholders and developed a workforce model.

Findings

• To meet the 2030 ambition, the workforce serving the onshore wind sector will need to increase from around 6,900 FTE (full time equivalent) in 2024 to a peak of around 20,500 FTE in 2027. Over 90% of these roles will be in construction and installation of wind farms. These job opportunities will only be available if estimates regarding the forthcoming onshore wind project pipeline materialise.
• Overall, stakeholders felt that those working in the sector have the right skills, but there are skilled workforce shortages. In the short term, there is a need for more people to join the sector and for individuals from other sectors to be reskilled/ upskilled. Without this, the sector faces challenges in delivering new projects on time, maintaining existing wind farms and maximising economic and environmental benefits.
• Not addressing skill shortages is likely to have a severe impact on the 2030 ambition. By 2027, the model developed in this study predicts that, on average, four times more FTEs will be required for construction and installation than in 2024. Within this, five times more civil contractors will be required. More than 46% of these individuals will be required to build wind farms in Highland and Dumfries and Galloway, regions where stakeholders have highlighted is already difficult to recruit individuals. For operations and maintenance the figures are smaller and the timeframes longer: around 2.5 times as many roles will be required in 2030 than in 2024. The regions with the highest requirement, of around 37%, are again Highland and Dumfries and Galloway.
• There will be significant shortages in technical roles, particularly high voltage engineers and wind turbine technicians. Across Scotland, FTE for electricity grid connections will need to increase from 1,100 in 2024 to 4,500 in 2027, a 400% increase. The number of wind turbine technician FTE will need to increase from around 465 in 2024 to almost 1,200 in 2030, a 258% increase. These will affect project development and operations if they are not resolved.
• The scarcity of skilled planners and specialist environmental consultants is set to continue. An average of 100 FTE planners and 434 FTE environmental consultants is estimated to be required across Scotland each year to enable wind farm developments between 2024 and 2030.
• Digital skills for data analysis and drone inspections need to grow to improve turbine performance monitoring.
• There will be a need for diverse skillsets within the sector, including project management, stakeholder engagement and regulatory compliance.

If you require the report in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/4426

Executive summary

Aims

The purpose of this study is to deliver on a commitment in the Scottish Onshore Wind Sector Deal (SOWSD) to “publish a paper identifying the range of skills needed by industry to deliver our 2030 target” ^[1] and to inform the enhancement of skills and training provision to meet future sector needs.

Approach

We interviewed 22 Scottish onshore wind stakeholders between February and March 2024, including 11 developers, one owner / operator, two construction companies, two consultancies, three operation and maintenance providers, two skills and training providers and one local authority planning department. Furthermore, we developed a workforce model based on:

• the BVG Associates assessment of the pipeline of onshore wind projects in Scotland underlying their 2023 report “Scotland onshore wind pipeline analysis 2023-2030” and
• our estimates of the workforce requirements for a typical onshore wind project based on wider ITPEnergised insights from working on more than 500 onshore wind projects and validated through stakeholder consultation as part of the study.

Modelling assumptions were validated with the stakeholders above in March 2024.

Findings

• To meet the 2030 ambition, the workforce serving the onshore wind sector will need to increase from around 6,900 FTE (full time equivalent) in 2024 to a peak of around 20,500 FTE in 2027. Over 90% of these roles will be in construction and installation of wind farms. Employment by activity is shown in Figure 1. These job opportunities will only be available if estimates regarding the forthcoming onshore wind project pipeline materialise.

Figure 1: Annual FTE per onshore wind project stage.

Source: Workforce model using data from BVG Associates 2023 and consultants’ expertise.

• Overall, stakeholders felt that those working in the sector have the right skills, but there are skilled workforce shortages. In the short term, there is a need for more people to join the sector and for individuals from other sectors to be reskilled/ upskilled. Without this, the sector faces challenges in delivering new projects on time, maintaining existing wind farms and maximising economic and environmental benefits.
• Not addressing skill shortages is likely to have a severe impact on the ambition to install 20 GW of onshore wind by 2030. By 2027, our model predicts that, on average, four times more FTEs will be required for construction and installation than in 2024. Within this, five times more civil contractors will be required. More than 46% of these individuals will be required to build wind farms in Highland and Dumfries and Galloway, regions where stakeholders have highlighted is already difficult to recruit individuals. For operations and maintenance (O&M) the figures are smaller and the timeframes longer: around 2.5 times as many roles will be required in 2030 than in 2024. The regions with the highest requirement, of around 37%, are again Highland and Dumfries and Galloway^[2].
• There will be significant shortages in technical roles, particularly high voltage engineers and wind turbine technicians. Across Scotland, FTE for electricity grid connections will need to increase from 1,100 in 2024 to 4,500 in 2027, a 400% increase. The number of wind turbine technician FTE will need to increase from around 465 in 2024 to almost 1,200 in 2030, a 258% increase. These will affect project development and operations if they are not resolved.
• The scarcity of skilled planners and specialist environmental consultants is set to continue. An average of 100 FTE planners and 434 FTE environmental consultants is estimated to be required across Scotland each year to enable wind farm developments between 2024 and 2030.
• Stakeholders have identified a growth need for digital skills for data analysis and drone inspections to improve turbine performance monitoring.
• There will be a need for diverse skillsets within the sector, which encompass project management, stakeholder engagement and regulatory compliance.

Recommendations

• The Scottish Government, together with partners in other public agencies, industry and the education sector, has the opportunity to address expected skill shortages in relation to the 20 GW capacity ambition by 2030. Investing in skills development is not only essential for the success of individual onshore wind projects but also for Scotland’s broader renewable energy goals. Addressing these shortages will require a comprehensive approach, including workforce development initiatives, training programmes and industry-academy collaborations. In this regard, collaboration between stakeholders from the public, private and education sectors will be crucial to bridge skills divides and unlock the full potential of Scotland’s onshore wind resources.
• Undertake a purposeful awareness raising programme of career opportunities within the sector, the transferrable nature of the skills developed and that many job categories in this sector will be required for a long time.
• Implement targeted campaigns in rural areas where most new installations will take place, to demonstrate highly skilled jobs for local people, many of which pay well above the average UK salary.

Glossary / Abbreviations table

Introduction

Background

Onshore wind is a mature technology, with the first commercial windfarms built in the 1980s in the US and in Denmark. Scotland’s first commercial onshore windfarm, Hagshaw Hill, started generating electricity in 1995. Rapid expansion in the last 30 years has seen onshore wind supplying electricity in countries all over the world. An overview of the recent developments in the global onshore wind industry is provided in Appendix A.

The Scottish Government has recognised the importance of onshore and offshore wind to supply the increased amounts of electricity that will be necessary to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2045. In the Onshore Wind Policy Statement, the Scottish Government stated its ambition to increase the installed onshore wind capacity of 9 GW in 2021 to a minimum of 20 GW by 2030 (Scottish Government, 2022). Furthermore, the Government intends that this should benefit communities across Scotland and allow a just transition of the workforce to skilled jobs within the onshore wind sector. The statement was followed in 2023 by the Scottish Onshore Wind Sector Deal (SOWSD), which committed to support the delivery of the necessary skills and training across Scotland to contribute to a just transition and realise the 20 GW ambition (Scottish Government, 2023).

Purpose of this study

The purpose of this study is to deliver on a commitment in the SOWSD and in turn, to:

• understand the jobs and skills requirements to support the deployment of onshore wind
• provide the analysis from which the enhancement of current skills and training provisions to meet future sector needs can be developed.

The aim is to map the annual numbers of jobs and skills needed to achieve 20 GW of installed onshore wind capacity by 2030. The specific objectives are to:

• estimate the number and types of jobs required annually in each stage of an onshore wind project
• estimate the geographic spread of these jobs across Scotland
• analyse the current level of skills available for onshore wind and the demand for these skills
• understand whether there are any skills gaps or shortages within the onshore wind industry in Scotland
• understand future demands for skills to enable the 2030 target to be achieved
• identify any skills gaps and make recommendations as to how these might be addressed.

Study methodology

We interviewed 22 Scottish onshore wind stakeholders between February and March 2024. These included 11 developers, one owner / operator, two construction companies, two consultancies, three operation and maintenance providers, two skills and training providers and one local authority planning department. Furthermore, we developed a workforce model that was based on analysis undertaken by BVG Associates of the pipeline of onshore wind projects in Scotland (BVG Associates, 2023), combined with the ITPEnergised assessment of the job requirements for a typical onshore wind project. This provided an assessment of job requirements for each project stage of a wind farm. Workforce numbers, job roles and modelling assumptions were validated in writing with the consulted stakeholders in March 2024.

In the remainder of the document, Section 4 provides an overview of the onshore wind sector in Scotland and a description of the job roles associated with each stage of the project lifecycle. Section 5 presents a summary of the modelling methodology and estimates of current and future job numbers. Section 6 describes the skills associated with the job types identified in Sections 4 and 5 and outlines the findings from our stakeholder engagement regarding skills shortages. Section 7 outlines options for addressing skills shortages from the stakeholder engagement and an international overview. Section 8 provides conclusions and recommendations.

Project pipeline, lifecycle and associated job roles

We reviewed the UK Government’s Renewable Energy Planning database (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 2023) to identify the project lifecycle phase of all onshore wind farms in Scotland. At the end of 2023, there was approximately 9.8 GW of installed onshore wind capacity in Scotland. This was distributed across 329 operational sites. The largest of these is at Clyde Wind Farm (operated by SSE Renewables in South Lanarkshire) with an installed capacity of 350 MW, and the smallest is Lower Rumster in Highland with an installed capacity of 0.2 MW. Highland has the largest amount of installed wind capacity (2.12 GW) followed by South Lanarkshire (1.352 GW) and Dumfries & Galloway (1.122 GW). All other local authorities have less than 1 GW installed capacity.

As of September 2023, there were 240 sites either under construction, awaiting construction or with planning applications submitted. These totalled 13.7 GW, with one greater than 500 MW (Scoop Hill Wind Farm in Dumfries & Galloway) and two greater than 400 MW (Viking Wind Farm in Shetland and Teviot Wind Farm in Borders). Another 28 of these windfarms are greater than 100 MW in installed capacity.

Onshore wind project lifecycle, job roles and skills levels

A typical onshore wind project is led by a project developer, who will normally operate the wind farm when it is operational. The developer is supported by a number of contractors and sub-contractors. An onshore wind farm project has five phases with the following durations: feasibility (1 year), development (3-4 years), construction (1-2 years), operation and maintenance (25+ years) and end-of-life. See Figure 1 and detailed descriptions of each project phase below. The project lifecycle structure is based on the ITPEnergised experience of consulting and managing over 500 projects for onshore wind developers. It also aligns with the onshore wind project lifecycle used in recent analysis undertaken in relation to Scottish Government policy (see Section 5). An overview of each project phase and typical workforce composition, in terms of full-time equivalent (FTE^[3]) positions and job roles, is provided in Table 1. For the purposes of this study, Optimat and ITPEnergised have developed a model based on a ‘typical’ wind farm which has 90 MW capacity and comprises fifteen 6 MW turbines^[4].

Figure 1: Onshore wind project phases.

Feasibility is the initial phase where developers engage with landowners and review potential onshore wind farm locations. This is followed by high-level analysis to understand whether the site has potential and whether there are any obvious issues that might prevent a wind farm being developed. Issues can include connections to the electricity grid, access to the site and whether there are any existing wind farms neighbouring the site. Feasibility can last up to a year and requires around four FTEs (see Table 1).

During the Development phase more detailed assessments are carried out by the developer with support from specialised environmental and technology consultancy firms. These include assessment of potential impacts on ecology, ornithology, geology, hydrology, peatland, noise & vibration, cultural heritage, archaeology, forestry, landscape & visual impact, aviation, and radar and telecommunications. It will also include an assessment of energy yields and some initial engineering design to understand costs. These are essential to the developer’s business case and planning application. During this phase the developer will engage with planning officers within local authorities and the Scottish Government’s Energy Consents Unit (ECU), and with statutory bodies (such as NatureScot) to secure planning permission. The planning process currently takes between two and four years, depending on whether there are any objections to the application that require a public inquiry. At the same time the developer will engage with the appropriate Distribution Network Operator (DNO) to secure a date for connection of the wind farm to the national electricity grid. Finally, the developer will engage with the local community to address any concerns they may have at the earliest possible stage. Overall, this can be the longest phase pre-operations, typically three to four years and requiring around ten FTEs (see Table 2).

When it comes to Construction and installation, developers will typically appoint one or more principal contractors, including the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) of the wind turbines. This initial procurement phase takes at least six months, and sometimes longer for wind turbines. The timing is also critical as most construction takes place over the summer months. Each of the primary contractors will subcontract others to fulfil local or specialised roles, including building access roads, foundations for turbines, substations and other onsite buildings, and delivering balance of plant (all of the cabling, components and equipment required to deliver electricity to the grid). These contractors, in turn, may also have subcontractors. There is, therefore, a complex supply chain hierarchy. The final part of this phase is physical connection of the wind farm to the grid, which is undertaken by specialist high voltage engineers working for the DNO. Overall, the construction and installation phase lasts at least one to two years, and requires around 148 FTEs across 16 different roles (see Table 3).

Once a wind farm is operational, the OEM that supplied the wind turbines will generally provide Operation & Maintenance services for up to 10 years. The operator will subsequently take out a maintenance contract with an independent service provider (ISP), who will generally service all of that operator’s sites. Most ISPs operate across the whole of the UK, but usually specialise in O&M for a few manufacturers, as technicians must be certified to work on specific wind turbine models. Operators of larger wind farms may, in addition, directly employ a few wind turbine technicians in addition to ISPs performing the bulk of O&M activities. Our ‘typical’ wind farm will require around five FTEs across 10 different roles (see Table 4).

At the End of life stage (typically 25 years), the operator can choose to decommission the wind farm, extend its operational life, or repower with larger turbines. Life extension is often sought as this is the most economical option. In this case the existing turbines are retained in place. Repowering can generate additional revenue from larger turbines, capitalising on the fact that these older sites tend to be in the most optimal locations for onshore wind. In the case of repowering, however, the operator/owner must essentially begin the project lifecycle again. For the purposes of our ‘typical’ wind farm we are assuming a similar level of FTE requirements to construction and installation. This is because the majority of end-of-life activities will not take place until later in this decade, at which point new turbines will be typically at least two to three times as powerful as the existing turbines. In addition, existing turbines might not be supported by the OEMs due to their age, making O&M more difficult (see Table 5).

Although specialised consultancies have been described for the development phase, these can also be engaged during any of the other phases. Overall, this highlights the broad range of roles that are required for a wind farm project. For the technical roles in particular, individuals require a significant number of years’ experience (see Appendix C). Tables 1 to 5 also illustrate that usually a wind farm project will employ most people during construction and installation and end-of-life phases. The next section provides a more detailed analysis of this.

In addition to the original turbines installed on the project site, wind farms require components to be manufactured and supplied throughout the project’s lifecycle. There are no manufacturers of large (multi-MW) wind turbines in the UK, and many of the components within these turbines are also not manufactured in the UK. This means that turbines and their parts must be imported. There is, however, end-of-life and remanufacturing capability within Scotland. Renewable Parts (based in Renfrew and Lochgilphead) refurbishes turbine components such as gearboxes for resupply to companies that provide operations and maintenance services. ReBlade, based in Glasgow and Dumfries, specialises in the decommissioning and recycling of blades and nacelles.

Current and future job numbers and their geographic distribution

Estimating current and future job numbers and types

The rapidly expanding activity in the onshore wind industry, in alignment with the nation’s net zero targets, represents a significant economic opportunity for Scotland. To enable this scale of activity, the sector will require a skilled and experienced workforce. It is, therefore, important to understand the overall number of FTE jobs that will be active in the sector on an annual basis, as well as the overall scale of economic activity in job creation in 2024-2030. This is an important distinction to ensure a clear understanding that some of the jobs will be temporary in nature (e.g., construction-related), whilst others will be permanent for the lifecycle of the project (e.g., operations).

The traditional economic modelling approach for estimating FTE numbers is based on the Gross Value Added (GVA) of the sector, calculated as a function of its turnover using historical ratios of these figures. A major limitation of this approach is the overall lack of detail as this method provides a broad overview rather than detailed insights into specific job roles within an industry. It does not easily break down workforce needs into different categories of employment, such as managerial, technical, or operational roles. Further, this approach relies on historical data and static assumptions about the relationship between economic output and employment. Most importantly, in sectors undergoing rapid transformation, such as renewable energy, the past may not be a reliable predictor of the future. Innovations, cost reductions, and changes in regulatory or market environments can significantly impact both GVA and employment levels in ways that historical data cannot predict.

To address these challenges, we developed an approach that makes use of a simulated model of a ‘typical’ onshore wind farm, ITPEnergised in-house expertise of equivalent projects, and refined and tested this through in-depth stakeholder consultation. This was combined with additional data sources as discussed with the study Steering Group. The model structure is presented in Figure 2. This is, to our knowledge, the first systematic attempt to conceptualise workforce composition in an onshore wind farm project.

The development of a ‘typical’ onshore windfarm model and approach for estimating FTE requirements per project phase and per job role associated with each phase are described in Appendix D.

The FTE predictions were triangulated against data in the Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) estimates (Office for National Statistics, 2021) that have been analysed and interpreted, in detail, by Ramboll UK in 2023 (Ramboll, 2023). Using the corresponding onshore wind project data from the Renewable Energy Planning Database (Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, 2021), we calculated the estimate of FTE per GW in construction and operations. Details on the validation process and data sources can be found in Appendix D.

Finally, we combined our model of a ‘typical’ onshore wind farm, with data from BVG Associates regarding the pipeline of the onshore wind projects in the timeframe 2024-2030, to project workforce requirements on an annual and regional basis. The BVG Associates database expands on the data contained in the REPD by forecasting wind farm project movement through different project stages up until 2030. It also includes information on planned wind farms that are not yet in the public domain.

An overview of our approach is provided in Figure 2.

Figure 2: Overview of workforce model developed within this study.

Figure 3 provides an overview of projected FTE by project stage on an annual basis to 2030. This highlights the large number of jobs in construction with a peak in 2027. O&M activities are expected to increase steadily throughout this decade and require almost 1,500 FTE by 2030. Significant end-of-life activities are not expected to begin until 2029.

Figure 3: Annual FTE per onshore wind project stage.

Using the capacity predictions on an annual basis, we calculated the number of FTE per job role per year in 2024-2030 (see Table 6). In total, the forecasted scale of activity will require an average of 14,256 FTE each year until 2030, with a particularly high demand for civils contractors and individuals that will deliver the grid connection and installation. It is, however, important to note that the majority of jobs in the onshore wind construction sector might not be sustained in the long term as currently the onshore wind project pipeline predictions show a decrease in activity from 2028 onwards. However, these construction jobs are highly transferrable to other infrastructure projects, including in offshore wind. In contrast, jobs created in operations and maintenance are likely to be sustained over the lifespan of an onshore wind project.

The colour code is indicative of the relative magnitude of FTEs required; green indicates low and red indicates high, a darker colour indicates a higher number.

Further detail of FTE requirements for different project stages is provided in Appendix D.

Predicting the geographical distribution of onshore wind skills demands

We used the BVG Associates data, as requested by the Steering Group, to analyse workforce requirements for different project stages on an annual basis and at a local authority (LA) level. The data for construction and installation, and O&M are presented in Table 7 and Table 8, respectively, as these project stages have the largest workforce requirements (in the period to 2030), the vast majority of which will be needed onsite. This highlights that Dumfries & Galloway, and Highland local authorities will have the highest workforce demands. Each of these LAs is projected to need more than 20% of the total construction and installation workforce requirements in 2026 and 2027, and Highland will also require 21% of the total workforce in 2028. In terms of O&M, Highland will require more than 20% of the projected workforce in each of 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030.

It is also clear from this analysis that several Local Authorities will have little or no onshore wind activity throughout this period, as shown in Table 7 and Table 8 below.

*unknown refers to projects that have been confirmed by BVGA with developers that are not yet in the public domain. N.B., no new wind farms are forecast to be built in the following local authorities in the period to 2030: Aberdeen City, Angus, Clackmannanshire, Dundee City, East Dunbartonshire, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh City, Falkirk, Fife, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, and Renfrewshire. The colour code is indicative of the relative magnitude of FTEs required; green indicates low and red indicates high, a darker colour indicates a higher number.

*unknown refers to projects that have been confirmed by BVGA with developers that are not yet in the public domain. N.B., no operational wind farms are forecast in the following local authorities in the period to 2030: Aberdeen City, Dundee City, East Dunbartonshire, Edinburgh City, Glasgow City, and Renfrewshire. The colour code is indicative of the relative magnitude of FTEs required; green indicates low and red indicates high, a darker colour indicates a higher number.

Workforce distributions for other project stages per Local Authorities are presented in Appendix E.

Skill requirements and shortages

A programme of stakeholder interviews was undertaken to provide greater insight to the job roles and specific skills that will be needed to achieve the ambition of 20 GW by 2030. In total, 35 stakeholders, that are undertaking different activities across different onshore wind project stages, were contacted; 22 of these stakeholders were interviewed (see

Figure 4), including 11 developers, 2 O&M, 2 experts in skills/training, 2 from consultancies, 2 from construction, 1 owner/operator and 1 from other expertise.

Figure 4: Stakeholder organisations that were interviewed as part of this study.

Stakeholders were asked to provide their views on the following topics (see Appendix F for the full list of interview topics):

• lifecycle of a typical onshore wind project
• project-specific workforce requirements
• workforce composition and numbers
• skill level assessment
• project development challenges
• adaptation to technological advancements
• collaboration with educational institutions
• attracting and retaining talent
• impact of policy changes
• incorporating circular economy principles
• other aspects that can constrain projects.

All of those interviewed were optimistic about the future of onshore wind in Scotland, with nine (41%) indicating that they expect significant increases in turnover and recruitment in their companies as a result. However, all were quite clear that there are a number of constraints that would need to be addressed in order for this to happen. As a result, six (27%) think that their current project pipelines will not be fully realised until after 2030.

A summary of the responses regarding skills shortages is provided in the following section. The stakeholder engagement has identified significant reservations regarding the feasibility of the project pipeline implementation due to constraints other than skill shortages. These further insights are presented in Appendix G.

Specific skills shortages

Overall, based on interview responses there is significant competition for skilled and experienced people across many different job roles within the onshore wind sector. Thirteen (59%) reported significant competition for experienced members of staff, and nine (41%) for skilled staff in general, across several roles. Six (59%), including four of the developers, specifically noted that headhunting of senior staff was a routine occurrence. Furthermore, recruitment and staff retention are challenging for those that operate in more remote locations – identified by eight (36%). Several specific skills shortages were identified, and these are described as follows:

Wind turbine technicians: although industry sources indicated that a single technician can maintain ten individual turbines, in practice all ISPs, and two operators, noted that two or three wind turbine technicians are needed to do so. The reasons for this are two-fold. Any turbine undergoing maintenance must have at least two technicians working on it for health and safety reasons, one of whom must have a certified electrical qualification. Secondly, a technician will typically have experience of two or three turbines, yet there is a broad range of manufacturers and models (including legacy models). Both operators and ISPs indicated that there is already a shortage of wind turbine technicians (nine or 41% of all stakeholders interviewed). Typically, ISPs recruit individuals from other sectors where they have gained relevant expertise in an electrical, mechanical, or hydraulic engineering discipline. Feedback from all three ISPs indicates that having experience of working safely with the electrical and mechanical systems that are present in wind turbines is more important than detailed knowledge of the turbines themselves. These individuals will have a minimum NVQ level 3 / SCQF level 6 qualification and are trained on specific wind turbine technologies by their new employer, either in-house or via specialist training providers. This is a process that can take between one and two years. Two of the ISPs and one of the developers interviewed had worked directly with the further education sector to develop relevant wind turbine technician training. Staff turnover with ISPs is relatively high at 10-20%, particularly when individuals have experience and higher-level certifications. This is reported to be due to a combination of long working hours and, in some cases, significant travel requirements and/or working away from home. Some of these individuals move to offshore wind where thirteen (59%) of stakeholders reported that salaries are higher. Four (18%) specifically stated that this attracts younger workers in particular.

High voltage engineers: of those interviewed, fourteen (64%), including all of the developers, specifically stated that there is a shortage of electrical engineers in general, and high voltage engineers with Senior Authorised Person (SAP) accreditation in particular. These individuals are accredited to work safely on high-voltage equipment, to connect and maintain grid connections, and typically have at least five years’ experience. The shortage of individuals with SAP accreditation will become more pressing as onshore (and offshore) wind industries are reliant on adequate grid connections, and grid operators are undertaking significant expansion to meet these needs, which also requires high voltage engineers.

Planning officers: although principally employed by local authorities and the ECU, stakeholders noted the importance of individuals with planning experience to developers’ operations with six (27%) stating that they were aware of planning officers being actively recruited to assist with onshore wind planning applications. What this means, however, is that local authorities (and the ECU within the Scottish Government) have become limited in terms of their resources to review onshore wind farm applications. This results in delays to the consenting process, with some developers indicating that it can add several years onto the project development stage.

Speciality consultants: operators, developers and consultancy firms all agree that there is a shortage of specialist consultancy expertise covering both environmental and technical aspects. These individuals can either work within a development company or for a consultancy firm, that is then subcontracted by the developer during different project stages. The reason for this shortage is primarily because the specialist consulting market was relatively small until the large expansion of onshore and offshore renewable energy installations increased the demand for individuals with niche skills. As with other skilled individuals in the onshore wind sector, there is ample evidence of headhunting taking place, with six (27%) of stakeholders reporting high turnover of consultants and two developers indicating that they had used specialist recruitment agencies. This process can take more than 12 months and often requires the company to offer enhanced employment packages to secure the right individuals.

Civils and construction: this sector has seen a marked downturn in workforce numbers due to COVID, BREXIT and, more recently, inflationary increases that have seen construction costs spiral. The issue is that there is more than enough work available for remaining construction companies and they can afford to choose the most lucrative contracts. Given the uncertainties and delays regarding when onshore wind projects may progress to the construction and installation stage, it is becoming an increasing concern to developers (noted by two in particular) that they can secure the necessary resources. This becomes a greater issue for smaller windfarms and those in more remote locations. The constraints facing the construction sector have been confirmed by recent analysis from the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB), which indicates that 19,950 extra construction workers will be needed in Scotland before 2027 (approximately 3,910 new starts per year) (CITB, 2023).

Digital skills: of those interviewed 14 (64%) also identified a growing need for digital skills. This ranged from the ability to undertake analysis of large datasets that are produced from the sensor systems now embedded within modern turbines, to the use of drones to visually inspect turbine blades and nacelles without having to climb the turbine. Employing individuals with such skills allows operators and ISPs to monitor turbine performance remotely and more effectively, and to identify issues and take preventative action at an earlier point, thus minimising turbine downtime. SCADA, IT and data managers were also highlighted as needed to oversee the installation and operation of such systems.

Other specific skilled roles that were identified by those interviewed included: project managers (with specific experience in different onshore wind project stages and disciplines – eight interviewees), stakeholder engagement specialists (to work with LAs, landowners and local communities – seven interviewees), procurement specialists (two interviewees), legal and financial experts (two interviewees), regulatory compliance experts (one interviewee), energy traders (to understand the financial processes of energy management and trading on the market – one interviewee), quantity surveyors (one interviewee), CAD technicians (one interviewee) and operational control room staff (one interviewee).

Skills challenges in remote locations

As already noted, many of the wind farms that are within the planning process are located in remote regions, including Highland, Dumfries & Galloway, and Argyll & Bute. Of those interviewed eight (36%) stated that it was difficult to recruit and retain a local workforce for construction and installation and then O&M of a wind farm in remote areas, with four highlighting Highland, Dumfries & Galloway, and Argyll & Bute as being particularly challenging. Instead, those working on these project stages often travel from outside the area and spend up to two weeks onsite and two weeks off. Two of the ISPs operate both local and regional (travelling) teams as a result but find that it can be difficult to recruit and retain people in these regional teams. From the regional perspective, the remote and rural areas often struggle to support, cater, and accommodate the large number of temporary workforces in construction phases of projects.

Sectors competing for skills required in onshore wind

The onshore wind sector is heavily influenced by a number of other sectors, mainly offshore wind, but also wider infrastructure development.

Offshore wind uses many of the same skillsets as onshore wind, meaning that workers can transfer relatively easily from one sector to the other. Feedback from 13 (59%) of stakeholders interviewed during this study indicates that salaries tend to be higher for offshore wind, to compensate people for long periods away from home (typically two weeks) and longer shifts (generally longer hours and seven days a week). This observation is also supported by those providing training (AIS Group, 2024). Two developers and two ISPs that were interviewed as part of this study suggested that younger workers, in particular, were attracted by the higher salaries in offshore wind.

There are a number of large infrastructure projects taking place across the UK, including transport (e.g., HS2 and electrifying the rail network), decommissioning of nuclear power stations, upgrading and reinforcing the electrical grid (in anticipation of increased renewable electricity generation), and upgrades to the national gas network. Each of these needs a cohort of workers with construction and engineering, as well as other skills. Four (18%) stakeholders that were interviewed as part of this study highlighted their concerns of staff shortages in construction companies.

Altogether, this means that there is high competition between sectors for similar skilled workers and the services of the companies that employ them. Overall, nine (41%) of stakeholders indicated a shortage of skilled people affecting the wider sector. This, in turn, can cause delays to project starts and for projects to take longer than originally planned.

The emerging need and opportunities for remanufacturing

Four interviewees noted that lead times for securing wind turbines for new installations were increasing (18 months was quoted by one), and that parts were not always readily available. One stakeholder stated that they were aware of turbines that were idle because it had not been possible to secure the necessary parts.

This offers an opportunity to enhance Scotland’s remanufacturing sector. The ISPs that were consulted indicated that they routinely source remanufactured parts from UK, Danish and Dutch suppliers, and, in some cases, they can do so more quickly than new parts can be provided by OEMs. With the increasing age of wind turbine installations, and with many of the older models no longer manufactured, it becomes even more pressing to have a domestic supply chain.

Options for addressing skills shortages

Feedback from stakeholder engagement

The overriding sentiment is that the skill shortages need to be addressed urgently through encouraging more people into the sector. In the short term, this means attracting people with some existing, relevant and transferrable skills and experience to address current shortages. These individuals will have some understanding of what is required of them from their previous roles but will need to be supported through retraining and upskilling. These roles could be technical, managerial or operational. Given the projected growth of the sector and the small size of some of the companies operating within onshore wind, and ISPs in particular, it is clear that this will require external support.

At the same time, there needs to be a greater effort to encourage younger talent to enter the sector. These will be people coming through further and higher education systems via apprenticeships, or certificate, diploma and degree programmes. These individuals will be critical in three to five years’ time when onshore wind activity is expected to be at its peak. For those entering technical roles, there will be a need to ensure greater opportunities for practical, on-the-job experience. In this regard, increasing the intake and scope of apprenticeships and training schemes, such as the Wind Training Network (ESP, 2024), will be important. This network, established by ESP, has 11 further education institutions as its members but is only delivering between 70 and 80 trained individuals per year^[5]. On its own, this is far too small to have a significant impact. There is, therefore, a need for more strategic and wider intervention to meet the forecast numbers of skilled workforce demand.

The most pressing action is to raise awareness of the broad range of career opportunities directly or indirectly associated with the onshore wind energy sector, especially for regional workforces. There is scope for targeted campaigns in rural areas where the majority of the new installations will take place – to demonstrate well-paid, highly skilled jobs for local people. For example, according to UK Government statistics a wind turbine technician can expect a starting salary of £25,000 reaching £47,000 with experience (National Careers Service, 2024). This compares well with the average UK salary (across all sectors and experience) of around £35,000 (Office for National Statistics, 2023). This could also help address population decline, due to younger people moving to more populated parts of the country (National Records of Scotland, 2021).

For O&M, onshore wind provides a long-term, potentially whole-life, career opportunity. Many of these and other skills required are readily transferrable to other sectors, including offshore wind and other onshore renewables, such as solar photovoltaic and battery storage. This could have an additional benefit of retaining people in their home regions, addressing the issue of depopulation and demographic changes in rural and remote areas (National Records of Scotland, 2021). For the construction sector, it is clear that Scotland is entering a phase of intensive infrastructure development in the energy and transport sectors in particular, but also across many aspects of the built environment. As a result, there will be ample employment opportunities available to individuals with these skillsets for the foreseeable future.

Therefore, there needs to be concerted action to increase the visibility of the sector to individuals in secondary, further and higher education. These are the people that could address potential workforce shortfalls towards the end of this decade and into the 2030s.

Several of those that were interviewed indicated that they had existing connections with further and higher education institutions, through recruitment, offering placements and internships, and giving lectures and talks to students. Four of the operators, two of the ISPs, one of the consultancy firms and one of the construction firms are already working with the further education sector, including Ayrshire, Dumfries & Galloway, and Dundee & Angus Colleges, to develop and refine training courses, including for wind turbine technicians. There is an opportunity to strengthen, coordinate and expand these developments through organisations such as ESP which has established strong connections between industry and the further education sector.

Overview of international skills strategies in the onshore wind sector

The Global Wind Organisation (GWO) has developed a series of certified courses that cover safety and technical aspects for technicians working in the onshore and offshore wind sectors (Global Wind Organisation, 2024). This comprises 16 standards divided into 27 training modules, which are delivered by third party training providers across the globe. Individuals completing the training are awarded certificates that can be verified by employers through an online global database. In 2023 around 156,400 individuals had certificates in at least one GWO module.

In terms of technical training for specific wind turbines, the Danish Wind Power Academy (dwpa) was one of the first dedicated training providers for the sector (Danish Wind Power Academy, 2024). Established in 2004, the trainers it employs have significant experience in technical work in the sector and can provide training across multiple wind turbine manufacturers and models. This training can be provided online or in-person and several of those interviewed for this study indicated that they had sent staff on dwpa courses, because of the high level of trainer expertise. BZEE, based in Germany, is another leading training provider (BZEE, 2024). Founded in 2000 by the German wind industry, it has developed certified training courses for the wind sector. It has a global network of training providers that deliver technical training including on specific manufacturers’ equipment. There are no such technical training facilities in Scotland. Companies instead use a combination of internal training and sending staff to training providers such as dwpa and BZEE.

There is the opportunity to consider the creation of training provision akin to dwpa or BZEE in Scotland.

Conclusions and recommendations

In conclusion, this study has indicated that the sector has skilled workforce shortages. Scotland urgently needs significantly more people to enter the onshore wind industry workforce if the country is to achieve the 20 GW ambition by 2030.

If skill shortages are not addressed, the impact on the ambition to install 20 GW of onshore wind by 2030 is likely to be severe. By 2027, our model predicts that on average four times more FTEs will be required for construction and installation than in 2024 and, within this, five times more civils contractors will be needed. More than 46% of these individuals will be required to build wind farms in Highland and Dumfries and Galloway, regions where stakeholders have highlighted that it is already difficult to recruit individuals. For O&M the figures are smaller and the timeframes longer: around 2.5 times more FTE will be required in 2030 than in 2024. However, the regions with the highest requirement are again Highland and Dumfries and Galloway, with around 37% of the total projected requirement.

Specific project findings include:

• A peak of almost 20,500 FTE will be required by 2027 across the whole of Scotland, from around 6,900 in 2024. This includes almost 18,800 FTE for construction and installation activities, representing 92% of the total workforce required.
• O&M requirements will increase from around 600 FTE in 2024 to 1,500 FTE in 2030. This number is expected to be maintained or even increased during the following decade.
• 46% of individuals constructing and installing wind farms will be working in the local authorities in Highland and Dumfries and Galloway, and a further 21% in East Ayrshire and Argyll and Bute.
• Around 37% of all O&M FTE will be working in Highland and Dumfries & Galloway from 2027 onwards.
• Technical expertise shortages, particularly in high voltage engineers and wind turbine technicians will pose significant challenges to project development and operation. An average of almost 3,000 FTE will be required each year, peaking at almost 4,500 in 2027, across Scotland to enable grid connections. A further 800 FTE wind turbine technicians will be required on average each year across Scotland to maintain installed turbines.
• A lack of skilled planners and environmental specialists will hamper the planning and consenting process, leading to delays. An average of 100 FTE planners and 434 FTE environmental consultants will be required each year to enable wind farm developments.
• Remote project locations will exacerbate workforce shortages and require innovative strategies to attract and retain talent in rural areas.
• There is a strong case for enhancing remanufacturing capacity in Scotland.
• Diverse skillsets encompassing project management, stakeholder engagement and regulatory compliance will be essential for effective project execution and communication.

Addressing these shortages will be challenging. For example, the Industrial Strategy Council, established by the UK Government in 2018, projected that by 2030 around 20% of the UK’s workforce would be under-skilled for their jobs (Industrial Strategy Council, 2020). In 2022, the IET reported that the UK had a shortfall of 173,000 skilled workers in science, technology, engineering and maths sectors, a situation that the IET had been monitoring for the previous 15 years (The Institution of Engineering and Technology, 2022). The solutions recommended from both the Industrial Strategy Council and the IET were for closer collaboration between government, industry and education/training providers to address these challenges, and that upskilling and reskilling would be key elements of this.

Recommendations

Investing in skills development is essential for the success of individual onshore wind projects and for achieving Scotland’s broader renewable energy goals. Addressing these shortages will require a comprehensive approach, including workforce development initiatives, training programmes and industry-academy collaborations. In this regard, collaboration between public, private and education sector stakeholders will be crucial to bridge skills divides and unlock the full potential of Scotland’s onshore wind resources.

Further actions may include:

• Undertaking an awareness raising programme of career opportunities within the sector, the transferrable nature of the skills developed and that this is a sector that is a key contributor to achieving net zero, and will be active for a long time (potentially a whole life career).
• Targeted campaigns in rural areas where the majority of the new installations will take place, to demonstrate well-paid, highly skilled jobs for local people. This could also help address population decline, due to younger people moving to more populated parts of the country.
• Extending wind turbine technician training in Scotland to support the O&M of onshore, and eventually offshore, wind farms. This could build on the Wind Training Network already established by ESP and extend this training to specific wind turbine models, as provided by dwpa and BZEE. Alternatively, it could be delivered in partnership with one or both of these organisations, for example, establishing a subsidiary of dwpa or BZEE in Scotland.

References

AIS Group (2024). More information available at: https://training.aisgroup.co.uk/pages/expertareaarticle.aspx?id=86

Blackridge Research & Consulting (2022). Global Top 15 Wind Turbine Manufacturers (2022). Available at: https://www.blackridgeresearch.com/blog/top-wind-turbine-manufacturers-makers-companies-suppliers

Bloomberg NEF (2023). Goldwind and Vestas in Photo Finish for Top Spot as Global Wind Power Additions Fall. Available at: https://about.bnef.com/blog/goldwind-and-vestas-in-photo-finish-for-top-spot-as-global-wind-power-additions-fall/

BVG Associates (2023). Scotland onshore wind pipeline analysis 2023-2030. Available at: https://www.scottishrenewables.com/assets/000/003/621/Scotland_2030_Pipeline_Analysis_Dec_22_FULL_REPORT_original.pdf

BZEE (2024). More information available at: https://www.bzee-association.org/

Danish Wind Power Academy (2024). More information available at: https://danishwpa.com/

Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (2023). Renewable Energy Planning Database. Available at: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/renewable-energy-planning-database-monthly-extract

ESP (2024). Wind Training Network established by ESP in 2012 to support the sector growth. More information available at: https://esp-scotland.ac.uk/energy-transition/

Global Wind Energy Council (2023). Mission Critical: Building the global wind energy supply chain for a 1.5°C world. Available at: https://gwec.net/supplychainreport2023/

Global Wind Energy Council & Global Wind Organisation (2023). Global Wind Workforce Outlook 2023-2027. Available at: https://gwec.net/global-wind-workforce-outlook-2023-2027-pr/

Global Wind Organisation (2024). More information available at: https://www.globalwindsafety.org/

Industrial Strategy Council (2020). Rising to the UK’s Skills Challenges. Available at: https://industrialstrategycouncil.org/sites/default/files/attachments/Rising%20to%20the%20UK%27s%20skills%20challenges.pdf

International Energy Agency (2024). More information available at: https://www.iea.org/energy-system/renewables/wind

ITPEnergised (2024). One of the partners delivering this study, is an established environmental and technology consultancy that has advised clients in more than 500 onshore wind farm projects. More information available at: https://www.itpenergised.com/

National Careers Service (2024). More information available at: https://nationalcareers.service.gov.uk/job-profiles/wind-turbine-technician

National Records of Scotland (2021). Population Grows in Large Cities, Declines in Remote Areas. Available at: https://www.nrscotland.gov.uk/news/2021/population-grows-in-large-cities-declines-in-remote-areas

Office for National Statistics (2021). Low carbon and renewable energy economy, UK: 2021. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/environmentalaccounts/bulletins/finalestimates/2021

Office for National Statistics (2023). Employee earnings in the UK: 2023. Available at: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/bulletins/annualsurveyofhoursandearnings/2023

OurWorldInData (2024). Renewable Energy. Available at: https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy

Ramboll (2023). Assessment of the structure, conduct and performance of Scotland’s onshore wind, offshore wind and hydrogen sectors. Available at: https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/projects/economic-analysis-of-scotlands-wind-and-hydrogen-sectors/

ReBladeLtd (2024). More information available at: https://reblade.com/

Renewable Parts Ltd (2024). More information available at: https://www.renewable-parts.com/

Scottish Government (2022). Onshore Wind: Policy Statement 2022. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/onshore-wind-policy-statement-2022/

Scottish Government (2023). Onshore Wind Sector Deal for Scotland. Available at: https://www.gov.scot/publications/onshore-wind-sector-deal-scotland/

The Construction Industry Training Board (2023). 19,550 extra construction workers needed in Scotland by 2027. Available at: https://www.citb.co.uk/about-citb/news-events-and-blogs/19-550-extra-construction-workers-needed-in-scotland-by-2027/

The Institution of Engineering and Technology (2022). Engineering Kids’ Futures. Available at: https://www.theiet.org/media/11077/engineering-kids-futures.pdf

Wind Europe (2024). More information available at: https://windeurope.org/about-wind/wind-basics/

Appendices

Appendix A – Onshore wind global market overview

As the onshore wind sector has matured, so has the ability to maximise the amount of electricity produced, even in areas with lower wind speeds. Turbines have become larger, with rotor diameters typically 120 m long compared with 15 m in 1985. Turbines now generate up to 7.5 MW compared with less than 1 MW in 1985 (Wind Europe, 2024). Countries across the globe are looking to wind (in addition to solar and hydro) to provide clean and sustainable energy. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), combined onshore and offshore wind generated more than 2,100 TWh of electricity in 115 countries across the world in 2022 (International Energy Agency, 2024). China is dominating this growth, installing 59 GW in 2023 alone (half of all global installations in 2023), compared with 17.9 GW in the European Union (EU) and 11 GW in the United States (US). However, to achieve global net zero targets, annual installations will need to reach 350 GW by 2030. Onshore wind accounts for 93% of all installed wind capacity, although the share from offshore wind is expected to increase, with offshore responsible for 18% of new capacity installed in 2022. Wind is second to hydropower in terms of global renewable energy production (OurWorldInData, 2024).

Figure 5: Key components of a wind turbine. From ‘Background analysis of the quality of the energy data to be considered for the European Reference Life Cycle Database (ELCD)’ (2013). 10.2788/5377

Manufacturing of wind turbines and their parts takes place in several countries. China dominates with ten of the top fifteen global manufacturers (Blackridge Research & Consulting, 2022). Vestas Wind Systems (Denmark) and Goldwind (China) are the largest manufacturers by installed turbine capacity (Bloomberg NEF, 2023). Other European manufacturers include Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy (Spain), GE Renewable Energy (France), Nordex (Germany) and ENERCON (Germany). Each of these companies exports turbines across the globe. The only wind turbine manufacturing sites in the UK are for offshore wind turbine blades: Vestas has a site located on the Isle of Wight, and Siemens Gamesa has a site in Hull.

Manufacturing is not, however, keeping pace with the anticipated demand for the installation or supply of spare parts for operations and maintenance (Global Wind Energy Council, 2023). This has been attributed to a number of factors including increasing manufacturing costs and uncertainty regarding the timing of large-scale installations in different countries. Leading global organisations such as the IEA and the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) have stated publicly that more needs to be done to support the wider onshore wind supply chain to meet the global installed capacity ambition. The key components of a turbine are highlighted in Figure 5.

Although manufacturing of new onshore turbines and their components is not expected to happen within Scotland within the period to 2030; refurbishment and remanufacturing of parts for existing, largely legacy turbines, is already happening and has potential to be expanded. This will require skilled people.

Global trends regarding skills demand in the onshore wind sector

Construction / installation, and operations and maintenance (O&M) of windfarms will require the largest numbers of individuals, compared to other project stages in the period to 2030. Globally, it is estimated that by 2027 there will be a need for 256,000 technicians to construct and install onshore wind turbines and a further 243,500 to undertake O&M activities, an annual increase of 17% on 2022 figures (Global Wind Energy Council & Global Wind Organisation, 2023). Of all technicians employed in the wind sector, 87% are expected to work onshore. Further analysis suggests that almost 43% of these individuals will be new recruits to the sector (based on growth projections and an annual attrition rate of 6%) (International Energy Agency, 2024). Overall, this indicates a large global competition for individuals with such skills.

For new entrants into technical roles, wind sector employers tend to recruit either directly from further or higher education or from other sectors that have relevant transferable skills, e.g., oil & gas, or vehicle maintenance. These individuals are then provided with in-house training, supplemented as required with external training, that is specific to the wind sector.

Appendix B – Onshore wind project lifecycle

Appendix C – Job roles, skill level and years of experience

The job roles, skill level and years of experience in the table below were produced through consultation with a range of IPTEnergised members of staff that have experience of, and responsibility for, delivering different phases of onshore wind projects. This internal assessment was validated by sharing with all engaged stakeholders at the end of February 2024.

Appendix D – FTE requirements for different project stages

Detailed model description

A model was developed to estimate the workforce requirement in the onshore wind industry that will enable us to provide a breakdown of the total workforce requirements into specific job roles.

To develop the model, we used the knowledge base of our project partner IPTEnergised, who have developed and supported over 500 onshore wind projects, to create a simulated onshore wind farm (90MW installed capacity) and a detailed description of job roles and their fulltime equivalents across all stages of the wind farm life cycle (feasibility, development, construction, operations and maintenance, end of life). This part of the model served as a basis for the estimated FTEs per job role per project stage, normalised to 1GW (FTE/GW). The resulting FTE number per GW was then multiplied by the BVGA forecasts of total GW capacity in each wind farm life cycle stage in the timeframe from 2024 to 2030. This calculation yielded the number of FTEs by job role by project stage across the entire pipeline of Scottish onshore wind projects in 2024-2030.

As a quality control for the FTE/GW assumption from the IPTEnergised, we used the data from LCREE 2021 that has been interpreted by Ramboll (2023) to break down the total employment numbers into those involved in the construction and operations of onshore wind farms. We divided this number by the onshore wind capacity under construction and in operation, respectively, to yield an estimate for FTEs per GW that are independent from those presented in the IPTEnergised model. This quality control exercise showed that the FTE/GW assumptions presented by IPTEnergised are consistent with the employment in the sector in 2021. The 2021 time point was used to enable the use of Ramboll interpretation of LCREE 2021 data. LCREE 2022 was released in March 2023. LCREE is an industry self-reported dataset that has certain limitations associated with the differences in individual interpretation of employment in the low carbon/renewable energy sector.

The figure below illustrates the data sources and activities carried out to create and validate the model.

Figure 6: Data sources for model validation.

The heatmaps below illustrate FTE requirements for different project stages in 2024-2030. A darker colour indicates a higher value, representing a relatively higher FTE demand for a job role.