Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Society

SCCAP objectives:
S1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on people, homes and communities
S2: Increase the awareness of the impacts of climate change to enable people to adapt to future extreme weather events
S3: Support our health services and emergency responders to enable them to respond effectively to the increased pressures associated with a changing climate

How are climate change risks affecting Scottish society and how well prepared are we?

A changing climate will affect all sectors of society, with the potential to cause significant economic and social disruption.

Our indicators for the Society theme of the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) collectively provide an overview of the current state of resilience of Scottish society, covering both social and economic measures. They establish a baseline of vulnerability and exposure (risk), actual impacts (where these exist and are being measured), and any adaptation actions that are being taken forward under the SCCAP.

Society’s exposure and vulnerability to climate change can be difficult to quantify. Quantitative measurement, such as the number of households at risk of a significant flood event, provides only part of the picture. It is difficult to assess the non-material risks to society as a whole – in particular the risks to health and wellbeing. There are significant gaps in data and knowledge, especially in relation to the risks and impacts of climate change on wellbeing and mental health.

Climate change is very likely to increase precipitation and the number of heavy rainfall events (≥25mm in any 24 hour period). Inevitably, the number of flooding incidents will increase unless infrastructure and buildings are adapted to cope. 

Flooding is relatively rare in Scotland but can have a devastating impact on those whose homes or businesses are flooded. Flooding of community services like health centres or schools can have wide ranging consequences. Flooding of emergency services premises – fire, police and ambulance  – has the potential to disrupt entire regions.

There is currently little data to assess communities’ exposure and vulnerability to the impact of extreme weather-related flooding on community services. This is an important aspect of resilience as communities are dependent on the services provided by GP and dental surgeries, hospitals, schools and emergency services.  Scotland’s 14 Local Flood Risk Management Plans should provide a clearer picture in future.

For Scotland, distributional differences should not be under-estimated, noting in particular the challenges of remote rural islands.  Sparse and/or aggregated (national scale) data make accurate assessment of localised impacts difficult. 

We also have a limited understanding of the extent to which adaptive capacity is being built through social capital.[1]  To meaningfully monitor change in adaptive capacity, assessment requires monitoring and evaluation metrics to be identified, agreed and designed into adaptation policies from the outset. In order to determine whether policies to build adaptive capacity are successful, need modification or should be replaced, we need quantitative assessments of their effectiveness and efficiency. Currently, this is not possible.

Adaptation options

Preparing Scotland istheScottish Government’s guidance on improving societal resilience.  It considers risk, impacts and actions under three broad headings: Prepare; Respond; Recover

1. Prepare: assess the risks by understanding vulnerabilities

Climate related risks frequently manifest as extreme weather events: extreme temperatures, flood, storms and high winds. These events impact directly on the material fabric of society for example by putting residential and non-residential properties at risk of flooding. The distribution of risks across different socio-economic groups is uneven, and depends on many factors including physical health, mental wellbeing, age, employment, financial health, mobility, and social inclusion and isolation.

Scotland’s Flood Risk Management Strategies (FRM Strategies) coordinate efforts to tackle flooding. They set the national direction of future flood risk management, helping to target investment and coordinate action across public bodies. Each of Scotland’s 14 Local Plan Districts has an FRM Strategy, which is used as a basis for better decision-making across flood risk management organisations.

Local Flood Risk Management Plans provide local detail about flood management actions for 2016-2021. Both Local Flood Risk Management Plans and Flood Risk Management Strategies will be updated every six years. 

Climate-related information is already included in Preparing Scotland: Warning and Informing.  Warnings and alerts are made available to the public through SEPA’s Floodline service. SEPA also collaborates with the Met Office to provide a more detailed Scottish Flood Forecasting Service integrating hydrological and metrological data, specifically for Category 1 and Category 2 Responders as defined in the Civil Contingencies Act (Scotland) 2004.

The SCCAP uses recommendations from Good Places Better Health to evaluate risks associated with societal preparedness, including, for example, an assessment of climate resilient housing stock against benchmarks provided by the Scottish Housing Quality Standard (SHQS).  

The corresponding risk reduction measures are important components of preparation. Innovation in demand-side efficiency and accelerating the development of new energy efficient technologies contribute to building adaptive capacity. Government support for energy efficiency has sought, through socio-economic targeting, to establish co-benefits in addressing economic disadvantage.

More generally, policies designed to build the capabilities necessary to improve societal resilience involve disseminating information, advice, guidance, education and support, and developing knowledge and skills.  The Scottish Government published a public engagement strategy in 2010 to raise awareness of adaptive actions that can be taken in response to the impacts of a changing climate and maximise the impact of the above policies.  Wider communication and engagement on climate change issues is ongoing, including a number of ‘Climate Ready’ action plans for the public and private sectors and communities  – see for example Adaptation Scotland’s visualisation tool, Climate Ready Places.

2. Respond: to threats and realised impacts

Responding to climate change requires developing appropriate knowledge and skills (capabilities) but its distributive and differentiated nature requires different capacity across communities and geographical areas.   

Capability refers to developing and disseminating the knowledge and skills needed to adapt.  Much of the responsibility for this knowledge transfer lies with Scotland’s Public Bodies.  Preparing Scotland is referenced frequently in the development of their delivery plans, indicating that they should be consistent with the framework and therefore able to deliver a coherent set of procedures for action. 

Capacity refers to the resources – human, financial and equipment – required to actually deliver the adaptation action plans. The success of any adaptation strategy will depend in part on broader economic considerations, particularly adequate capital funding. Any assessment of capacity must consider the availability of suitably trained personnel with access to the specialist equipment required for any given situation and the funds necessary to keep the training up to date and the equipment maintained.

Response can also be proactive where appropriately targeted interventions result in systemic improvements to overall resilience.

Risks associated with fuel poverty, for example, can exacerbate climate disadvantage and, consequently, lead to increased social vulnerability. Demand management through more efficient use of energy can contribute to reducing fuel poverty rates leading to a reduction in vulnerability and thereby an improvement in overall resilience.

Since 2009, Scottish Government has spent over £500m on fuel poverty and energy efficiency Programmes. HEEPS, the most recent of these, provided £65m of grant funding in financial year 2015 for eligible householders. This scheme will be developed further in the Scotland’s Energy Efficiency Programme (SEEP), which will see energy efficiency in both residential and non-residential building stock designated a National Infrastructure Priority from 2017.

3. Recover: by developing and applying coping strategies

Recovery is the primary goal of resilience.

Local and Regional Resilience Partnerships co-ordinate the multi-agency response necessary to support recovery from a range of events including but not limited to extreme weather.  The responsibilities for response and recovery are separate, although in practice this line is frequently blurred. Based on the principles of integrated emergency management (IEM), the emergency services work with other Category 1 and Category 2 Responders in Local or Regional Resilience Partnerships (LRP/RRP), depending on the scale of the event. In 2013, the eight Strategic Coordinating Groups (SCGs), corresponding to the eight regional police forces, were replaced by three RRPs (North, East and West), which in turn are broken down into 13 LRPs (3 in the North and East, 7 in the West). The RRPs benefit from many years of knowledge accumulated during the operation of the SCGs. However, the transition to unitary police and fire services continues to require organisational change; and the climate related elements of the new National Risk Register for Scotland would require regional and local interpretation in the Community Risk Registers being developed by LRPs.

While it is the consensus view that vulnerable groups are less able to recover from events, our understanding of how different elements of vulnerability – employment, income, health, access to services, etc. – affect resilience is not very well developed.  Indeed, the different methods adopted frequently prevent definitive conclusions being drawn: SEPA’s use of the Social Flood Vulnerability Index (SFVI), for example, considers 2 dimensions of vulnerability – social characteristics and financial indices – while Scottish Government studies frequently use the 7 domain Index of Multiple Deprivation (SIMD).

Economic resilience is another important element of the recovery process. For most of those affected, extreme weather events will undoubtedly have a financial impact, which can only be offset by insurance cover. Unfortunately, data disaggregated for Scotland is currently unavailable from the sources that would be expected to hold it – Association of British Insurers (ABI), the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, Scottish Flood Forum – and so little can be said about the actual financial impacts of extreme weather events at the present time.

Policies like UK-wide Flood Re have been proposed for reinsuranceprotection. These are designed to keep the flood insurance element of insurance available and affordable to homeowners at risk of repeat flooding.

Where businesses are affected, broader economic issues can be at stake as they typically involve the livelihoods of more people than the business owner alone. The business itself may well provide services to the broader community. Pharmacies and post offices, for example, are recognised as Community Services in the SEPA National Flood Risk Management Strategies. Other types of business, particularly food retailers and their supply chains, part of the Critical National Infrastructure[1], may become increasingly important for community cohesion, especially if recovery is protracted.

In situations where events occur in succession, there is anecdotal evidence that the capacity of both those affected and those supporting the recovery process can be overwhelmed relatively quickly.

[1] Critical National Infrastructure (CNI): see http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/03/21095856/3 , for example

What do the indicators tell us?

For society, the risks presented by climate change and the impacts that are already identifiable frequently have multiple costs (and, occasionally, benefits).  This introduces an additional level of complexity when trying to produce a overall assessment of risk, impact and action. The inter-connection between different risks, impacts and actions is one, perhaps the, defining characteristic of Climate Ready Society. 

The RISK of flooding to households and community services

Progress towards a society that is resilient to climate change in Scotland is broadly positive with much more work required in some areas of policy to build adaptive capacity; distributional (geographical) and differential (socio-economic) spreads are apparent.

When considered only at national scale, current and projected effects of climate change on Scottish society as a whole could be considered to be relatively slight. However, this would fail to recognise the distributed nature of risks and impacts.

Using SEPA modelled data, just over 3% (79,200 properties) of residential properties are at risk from a 1 in 200 year flood event. Only 5.6% (350 assets) of Community Services – hospitals and care homes, GP and dental surgeries, education facilities, emergency services – are at risk in a similar return period. The risk to Infrastructure assets – electricity sub-stations; wastewater and water treatment works; and the transport networks – is similarly low. There is no comprehensive source of information on the uptake of property level protection at national scale.

Distributional differences are apparent, for example, for the 9% of properties supplied by private water supplies at risk of flooding, those in Highland & Argyll and Tayside are significantly more exposed than other regions.

In terms of differentiated risk, despite concerted efforts, some of the underlying causes of vulnerability continue to show year-on-year increases with economic disadvantage being a critical factor.

• BB1/BB3: Property (residential and non-residential) at risk of flooding.
• CRS12: Number of community services at significant risk of flooding
• CRS54: Off-grid private water supplies at risk of flooding
• CRS58: Number of households/people falling below the SHQS & Tolerable Standard
• CRS61: Number of household in fuel poverty
• CRS62: Domestic debt held with energy companies for the supply of electricity and gas
• BE5: Electricity substations located in areas at flood risk
• BE6: Customers reliant on electricity substations located in areas at flood risk
• BT9: Disruption risk to railway services as a result of flooding
• BW4: Wastewater treatment works in areas at flood risk
• BW5: Water treatment works in areas at flood risk

The IMPACT of extreme weather events

Excess deaths due to cold in winter have been falling steadily and significantly over the last 60 years.  Improvements in housing, improved health care, higher incomes and greater awareness of the risks of cold suggest that the link between winter temperatures and increased winter mortality may be weakening.

While mean winter temperatures are expected to rise, the impact of short-term exposure to very low temperature extremes (cold snaps) – hypothermia, cardiac and pulmonary diseases – is unlikely to change.  However, short-term exposure to high temperature extremes (heat-waves) – heatstroke, syncope and fatigue – is likely to increase. Premature deaths due to extreme heat are not considered to be a significant climate-related health risk in Scotland until at least the 2050s.

The number of hospital admissions directly attributable to flooding and other extreme weather events is low, currently fewer than 1,000 cases per year from all causes.

Across Scotland, between 2009 and 2015 the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service attended 3,308 flooding/water events which can be identified as potentially weather-related. The majority of these events affected residential dwellings, though community services were also impacted, particularly health and education facilities. Flooding events in Scotland rarely directly result in physical injury.

Modelled data from SEPA estimates the economic impact of flooding on residential and non-residential properties based on annual average damages (AAD) [1] at some £252m, primarily as a result of fluvial flooding (£141m) with roughly equal impacts from coastal (£53m) and pluvial (£58m).  In terms of absolute numbers, distributional differences between Local Plan Districts are very apparent: AAD from all sources of flooding of £66.6m in Clyde and Loch Lomond, two orders of magnitude less (£436,000) on Shetland for example. The actual cost of annual flood damages in Scotland ranges from around £210m for property damage to £780m for all property plus agriculture). 

• CRS8: Excess deaths due to extreme temperatures
• CRS9: Number of hospital admissions as a result of extreme weather events
• CRS20: Number of flood incidents attended by SFRS each year
• BT4: Flood events affecting the trunk road network
• BT12:  Flood events affecting the rail network
• BE4/14: Electricity supply disruption due to flooding

ACTIONS taken to reduce the risk and impact of flooding on households, community services and emergency services

Even though the actual risk is small (see above), the perceived risk as measured by the number of registrations for flood warnings and alerts has shown a steady increase year-on-year since the Floodline service was introduced in 2011. 

During Storm Desmond in December 2015, the Floodline website received over 100,000 user sessions (250,000 page views) in the space of 6 days, exceeding the previous record of 95,000 in August 2014. 550 new people registered for the service. The water level web page alone was viewed over 100,000 times and 64 notifications of flooding were notified through ‘Report a Flood’, a feature added recently. At the height of the event, 15 Alerts and 75 Warnings had been issued (including 2 Severe, the first time since the launch of the system that this level of risk had been identified).  Over 70,000 messages were sent via a variety of channels (email, fax, pager, SMS and voice messages).

Floodline is an example of a suite of policies aimed at building capability through the provision of information, advice, guidance, education and support (collectively ‘Knowledge Transfer’).  65% of the policies and proposals in the Climate Ready Society theme of the SCCAP are concerned with knowledge transfer to build resilience at different scale – individual, household, community and (responder) organisational – each with distributed (regional and national) characteristics and differences.

Of the 20 potential indicators identified to track progress in this area, only 2 can be developed currently as a result of the gaps in data identified during this study.

• CRS34: Number of registrations for flood warnings/alerts
• CRS64: Uptake of energy efficiency measures

Constraints

The datasets that have been identified to date cannot yet support a comprehensive, quantitative assessment of Scottish society’s capacity to prepare for, respond to and recover from climate related events. This observation is as important as what the indicators can tell us. It reflects a lack of systematic analysis work on societal resilience. 

While there are research groups working on aspects of the issue, we have found no systematic study of societal resilience.

Some 33 indicators overall could not be developed due to data availability/quality issues:

1. Number of (vulnerable) people at significant risk of heat stress
2. Number of households/(vulnerable) people at significant risk of flooding
3. Number of households (within most deprived communities) flooded each year
4. Uptake of SQHS Guidance on reducing damp and condensation
5. Uptake of flood defensive measures – property level prevention and protection
6. Cost benefit of defensive measures for all assets: residential, non-residential, critical infrastructure
7. Coverage of flood insurance
8. Insurance claims for residential properties resulting from flooding and other extreme weather events
9. Insurance claims for non-residential properties resulting from flooding and other extreme weather events
10. Insurance claims for consequential loss resulting from flooding and other extreme weather events
11. Number of school days lost each year due to flooding and other extreme weather events
12. Uptake of public awareness measures on heat waves
13. Heatwave action plans in place
14. Incidence of new [water/food borne] diseases, including changes in disease vectors and [water/food borne] pathogens as a result of climate change
15. Mortality and morbidity attributable to [food/water/vector] borne diseases
16. Number of psychiatric hospital admissions episodes attributable to flooding events each year
17. Hospital admissions due to respiratory disease attributable to algal or fungal/mould growth
18. Uptake of VTEC/E.coli Action Plan
19. Category 1 Responders risk assessment plans in place
20. Category 2 Responders risk assessment plans in place
21. Category 1 responder expenditure on emergency planning and response
22. Category 2 responder expenditure on emergency planning and response
23. Number of SCCAP Delivery Agencies programmes in place (covers 10 programmes)
24. SCCAP Delivery Agencies programmes expenditure
25. Uptake of awareness raising programmes (covers 6 programmes)
26. Uptake of public awareness measures on psychological effects of EWE [flood/storm]
27. Knowledge transfer of EWE [flood] risk areas
28. Knowledge Transfer of assets at risk of EWE [flood]: Households; Community Services; Critical National Infrastructure (CNI) assets
29. Operational capacity of Category 1 Responders
30. Uptake of measures to improve the effectiveness of Category 1 Responders
31. Operational capacity of Local/Regional Resilience Partnerships
32. Uptake of measures to improve the effectiveness of Local/Regional Resilience Partnerships
33. Number of deaths and injuries from flooding & storm events each year due to Category 1 Responder availability

Some qualitative comments can be made regarding the status of knowledge transfer programmes, where plans have been widely established and implementations are now following; the reporting obligations for Public Bodies, which will provide an important data source for tracking the progress of the Adaptation Programme, which are at different stages of maturity for those bodies with delivery responsibilities, the Category 1 Responders; the development of Community Risk Registers, which are now in place for all three RRPs and 3 have been published by SFRS for the 13 LRPs.  The Community Risk Registers will need to be reviewed in the light of the National Risk Register for Scotland, due to be published in 2017.

However, there are a number of areas where data are simply unavailable. The lack of disaggregated insurance data for Scotland, for example, means that it is not possible to calibrate the modelled data used by SEPA to assess flood risk with empirical event data.  Similarly, long-term assessment of mental health and wellbeing is required, going beyond the anxiety scores of post-event questionnaires, and taking account of different impacts of acute, sub-acute and long-term events.

An estimate of the efficiency of defensive flood measures may be informed once the Local Authority asset inventory, required by the Flood Risk Management Act 2009, has been developed, using the methods described in the Flood Hazard Research Centre’s ‘Multi-Coloured Handbook’ to assess economic impact.

Policies and proposals focused on the adaptive capacity of business, industry & services were absent from the SCCAP – in part as a result of a lack of engagement by the private sector in the consultation process.

No assessment of food poverty and food security risks are possible, reflecting, to some extent, the lack of policy levers addressing business impacts in the current SCCAP, particularly the adaptive capacity of supply chains. Food Standards Scotland is developing a climate change strategy, which will include an assessment of the risks and impacts of emergent food-borne pathogens. 

Separating a consideration of resilience to a changing climate from the development of more general societal resilience may be unhelpful. The ability to heat/cool households cost effectively, for example, is a fundamental need, which may be affected in a variety of different ways by a changing climate. In health and social care, the ability to attribute emergent health impacts to a climate signal is probably less important than recognising the fact that pandemics undermine resilience and make communities more vulnerable. A resilient community will be inherently less vulnerable to any hazard, including climate change.

[1] Economic damages incorporates: direct damages to non-residential and residential properties, indirect damages (drying out, temporary accommodation) to residential properties, additional emergency services costs, vehicle damages associated with residential properties, damages to arable agriculture, damages to roads surface caused by floodwater

Other relevant indicators

Risks and impacts of flooding on the infrastructure network are discussed in the Flooding and infrastructure narrative in relation to a range of indicators covering energy, transport, water as well as residential and non-residential property, all of which are relevant to society as a whole. So too, estimates of risk from dilapidated building fabric, resulting in rising damp and condensation (see BB17/18 Dampness in housing stock; Condensation in housing stock).

Water quality is considered further in the Water quality and availability narrative.

Ecosystem based adaptation approaches establish value in natural flood management solutions.   The value of alleviating flood by slowing water run-off through peatland restoration projects, which have the co-benefits of maintaining water quality in the face of peat degradation could be demonstrated by projects funded through the SNH Peatland Action Programme, for example (see Resilience of the Natural Environment narrative)

For more detailed analysis of climate change risks to society and Scotland’s ability to adapt, see our three assessments of societal resilience, health and well-being and capability and capacity.

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment

How is climate change affecting Scotland’s natural water environment?

Scotland’s water environment provides resources essential to the country’s health and prosperity-drinking water, water supply for agriculture and industry, as a source of energy and location for recreation. Furthermore, Scotland’s lochs, rivers, estuaries and coast support a great diversity of habitats and species, with many of national and international importance.  The management of Scotland’s water resources is likely to face important challenges due to the impacts of climate change. Projected changes in the condition of water environments is likely to lead to significant changes in how ecosystems function, which in turn will affect the provision of ecosystem services, and the associated goods and services (e.g. clean water, food and energy) that are important to human well-being.

• Rising mean water temperatures and an increase in extreme temperature events combined with changes in precipitation patterns are likely to impact on the growth and survivorship of freshwater fish; enhance plant/algal growth; and alter the distribution and abundance of both native and invasive species.
• Increased temperatures and reduced precipitation will result in low summer flows and increase the vulnerability of aquatic ecology when water temperature is at its highest and habitat space and dissolved oxygen are at their lowest; migratory fish may also be prevented from moving upstream.
• An increase in high intensity rainfall events is likely to result in an increase in erosion of river banks, particularly where they have been destabilised by the removal of tree cover and other deep rooting vegetation.

The water environment cannot be viewed in isolation from the terrestrial environment in which it sits. Many of the risks posed by climate change to water bodies are due to knock-on impacts from the surrounding land and from potential changes in land use.

• Changing precipitation patterns and an increased likelihood of summer droughts will lead to reduced resources but higher water abstraction demands (particularly from irrigation).
• When combined with the presence of pollution sources the impact upon ecosystem functions from hydrological changes can be particularly severe.
  • During low flow events, there is reduced dilution capacity in rivers and, as a consequence, the concentrations of pollutants can increase markedly.
  • Warmer standing waters receiving high nutrient run-off as a result of greater intensity rainfall events could exacerbate algal blooms and eutrophication and increase loading of pollutants to the sea.

Changing patterns in agricultural land-use in response to the changing climate may alter the distribution and magnitude of these pressures.

Adaptation options

The state of Scotland’s water bodies as a whole has significantly improved over the last few decades. However, the Scottish Government recognises the need to continue to improve the general condition of the water environment in order to make it both more resilient in itself to the consequences of climate change as well as to provide a healthy resource that can benefit wider climate change adaptation.

The primary legislative driver for improving water quality is the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) that led to the Water Environment and Water Services (Scotland) Act 2003 (WEWS Act). The WEWS Act provides powers to regulate water activities, including wetlands and groundwater as well as rivers, lochs, transitional waters (estuaries) and coastal water. River basin management planning (RBMP) in Scotland sets out how these improvements to Scotland’s water environment will be phased, taking into account the time needed to develop and implement technical solutions, and make the required investments and adjustments without creating disproportionate burden. This should enable the pressures on water bodies to be reduced in a sustainable way to allow maintenance of or recovery to good or better status and enable the water environment as a whole to cope with the effects of climate change. Targets have been set for each waterbody for the time periods 2009-2015, 2015-2021 and 2021-2027.

Fundamental to the RBMP process is the legislative framework intended to ensure action on the most significant pressures on the water environment, supported by economic incentives, funding, and education to promote, encourage and support action. Examples of measures being undertaken include:

• Increasing investigative work to improve understanding of the problems
• Working with local stakeholders to find solutions that maximise social and economic benefits
• Building partnerships with land managers, other businesses and voluntary organisations
• Improving communication of good practices, including among land managers

Working with farmers is part of a co-ordinated national level approach to reduce the risk of diffuse pollution. A partnership approach to reducing rural diffuse pollution is led by the Diffuse Pollution Management Action Group (DPMAG). In addition to its national strategy, DPMAG targets ‘Priority Catchments’ where a particular focussed approach is needed. A whole catchment approach is also being taken with regard to abstraction management. Declining river flows may require regulatory intervention in order to maintain environmental flow conditions. SEPA are currently trialling a new approach to abstraction management, working with land managers in catchments that have been identified at risk of impact from irrigation abstraction and focussing on crop requirements, water efficiency, irrigation programming and use of storage ponds. ‘Farming for a Better Climate’ (Scotland’s Rural College) and ‘Future Proofing Scotland’s Farming’ (Soil Association Scotland, Quality Meat Scotland) provides practical advice to farmers which helps to support this approach.

The threat of invasive non-native species to freshwater habitats is addressed by Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy and in addition to targeted management of notified habitats by Scottish Natural Heritage, a combination of public awareness campaigns, innovative ‘citizen science’, and the development of strong partnerships is aimed at reducing this growing risk. The Rivers and Fisheries Trusts of Scotland (RAFTS) are leading on biosecurity in many Scottish river catchments. RAFTS has recently begun developing the Scottish Invasive Species Initiative (SISI) project. This will create a network of volunteers to eradicate and control several invasive non-native species across a large area in the north of Scotland, focusing on rivers, lochs and riparian corridors.

Currently, there are limited long-term, quality controlled water temperature data available in Scotland which makes it difficult to accurately assess some climate related pressures and impacts and to therefore enable more focussed and effective management. In response to this need, the Scotland River Temperature Monitoring Network (SRTMN) is being established to provide an evidence base that can inform local fisheries management and adaptation strategy at a local and national level.

SEPA has been progressively improving the understanding of the state of the water environment in Scotland, and since 2009 a number of changes have occurred to the way data is collected and analysed:

• increasing the amount of environmental data on which the assessments are based;
• developing and refining the models used to interpret data and make assessments;

The second RBMP also includes an assessment of how the main management actions may contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and to preparing Scotland for a future climate, as well as considering how effective the action will remain under a changing climate. This is an important development as it helps to identify potential conflicts and reduce the risk of maladaptation. Climate change is likely to increase the need for coordinated land and water management as conflict arises due to e.g. reduced summer water availability (conflicts for a limited resource) and high intensity rainfall events (the need to utilise farmland for flood prevention).

What do the indicators tell us?

CXC’s indicators focus on various aspects of exposure and vulnerability of the water environment to climatic changes, some of the critical resulting impacts and highlights action to address these risks:

The direct and indirect RISK to the natural water environment due to changes in temperature and precipitation, and vulnerability to pressures exerted on water quality and quantity from climate related changes in the terrestrial environment:

• Summer low flow events in Scottish rivers (Normalised Flow Index) identifies 30 and 90 day periods of regional relative water scarcity. During the summer of 2014 the Clyde region experienced the lowest flows relative to the long term average. Currently there is no detectable trend, but it is projected that by the 2050s, exceptional events currently experienced once every 40 years may become as common as every 9 years.   
• Proportion of water bodies not meeting Good Overall Status utilises SEPAs annual monitoring to provide an indication of the likely resilience of water bodies to the pressures of climate change. Whilst targets have been missed, there has been an overall decrease in the number of sites failing to meet good status, with improvements largely being secured by the reduction of impacts from discharges of pollution or water abstraction, and the removal of barriers to fish migration.           
• Drought risk to agricultural land examines constraints on land use options through limitations on soil water availability, and hence the potential increased demand on abstraction of water for irrigation to maintain agricultural productivity. Currently around 2.5% of prime land is at moderate/severe drought risk but no long-term trend is currently detected.
• Agricultural land at significant flood risk uses SEPA’s assessment of the area of prime agricultural land at risk of 10, 50 and 200 year flood events. Over 160,000ha are currently identified as at risk of frequent flooding with consequential risk of soil erosion and run-off into water bodies.
• Wetness risk for agriculture examines the constraints on land use options through limitations on trafficability and workability of the land and the risk of poaching resulting in increased pollution to surrounding water bodies. Whilst there has been no significant change across Scotland as a whole, East Scotland shows a slight trend to reduced wetness risk.

The IMPACT on the condition and distribution of native and non-native freshwater species and potential indirect impacts from the influence of land use on the water environment:

• Condition and distribution of climate sensitive species: Abundance of Arctic charr in freshwater lochs examines the impact of temperature changes on a cold water specialist which is physically restricted from shifting range in response. Whilst climate change is not the only pressure on their populations, there is evidence to show that it is having a significant impact on the southerly distribution of this species.
• Freshwater habitats with reported presence of key invasive non-native species (INNS) utilises SNH’s Site Condition Monitoring and shows that currently around a third of Scotland’s notified freshwater features have a reported pressure from INNS.
• Freshwater bodies affected by diffuse pollution due to agriculture utilises pressure data collected by SEPA for all water bodies. Over 16% of water bodies in 2012 were under pressure from diffuse pollution from arable, livestock or mixed farming and at less than good status overall.
• Abstraction of water for irrigation shows that during 2013 approximately 17 million cubic metres of water were abstracted for irrigation purposes, which was 39% of the total licensed volume. Abstraction levels were significantly higher in the East reflecting the dominance of arable farming in this area. The greatest abstraction occurred in the Tay region which coincides with the area projected to see the greatest increases in irrigation demand.

Examine the success of management ACTION to improve the resilience of the water environment and the ability to adequately assess climate induced impacts:

• Progress towards the environmental objectives of the River Basin Management Plans uses SEPAs water classification data to assess achievement of environmental improvement targets. There has been good progress with regard to addressing many measures, but some targets for improvement are likely to be missed in a number of areas (particularly with regard to rural diffuse pollution and the risk posed by the spread of INNS)
• Freshwater monitoring: temperature assesses the change in temperature monitoring capability at SEPA water monitoring stations. There has been a significant increase since 2002 however the availability of high resolution, quality controlled temperature data remains inadequate but is being addressed by the establishment of the Scotland River Temperature Monitoring Network (SRTMN).

Possible future indicators for which data is not currently available or suitable:

• Freshwater temperature means and extremes
• Condition and distribution of climate sensitive species: Salmon
• Organic carbon levels in rivers and lochs
• Wetland restoration area
• River restoration projects and riparian planting schemes
• River area/catchments with invasive species eradication programme
• Uptake of water conservation measures

Change to more drought resistant crop varieties

Other relevant indicators

Projected increases in prolonged and heavy rainfall events may lead to an increase in soil erosion and hence the pollution of aquatic environments through enhanced sediment load and associated chemicals:

• Soil erosion risk (2016)
• Agricultural production methods which reduce erosion risk (2018)

The availability and quality of water for Scotland’s natural environment is intricately linked to the adequate supply of drinking water and meeting the needs of Scotland’s industries and energy demands, as well as the sustainable management of these needs:

• Water leakage and loss (2018)
• Zones and customers vulnerable to water supply deficit (domestic/industry sector) (2016)
• Total household water usage per day (2018)
• Total non-household water usage per day (2018)

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt
N3: Sustain and enhance the benefits, goods and services that the natural environment provides

Will species be able to track suitable space in a changing climate?

Some plants, animals and insects will be unable to thrive in their current locations as the climate changes. This can be directly due to the changing climatic conditions or because the changing climate is enabling other species to move into the location and compete for resources. In order to survive, some threatened species may be able to move to a new location where the climate is suitable. It is important to note that many species, including most of our waders and seabirds, are site faithful and will not move. They will simply not survive at their current locations when faced with competition from other species or declining availability of food or other resources.

For species that can and do move, this might mean moving northwards, up mountainsides to a higher elevation, or from south-facing to north-facing slopes. Climate change has already led to species movements, for example changing migration patterns of waterbirds. Species have been wintering at higher latitudes than previously (Abundance of wintering waterbirds).

Movements to new areas in response to a changing climate can depend on suitable habitat being available within those areas. Some species may be able to move or disperse to other areas of suitable habitat relatively easily, for example some butterfly species have been shifting their range northwards. Other species need to use ‘corridors’ or ‘stepping stones’ in order to move between fragmented areas of suitable habitat.

Currently, fragmented habitats and lack of connecting features limit the ability of some species to track suitable climate space. Species that can only survive in a very narrow range of environmental conditions (including habitat ‘specialist’ species such as lichens of ancient woodlands – Proportion of ancient woodlands with declining overall suitability for lichen epiphytes), those at the southern limit of their range in Scotland, and montane species are particularly likely to lose climate space; as the climate changes their habitat will shift northwards and/or to higher altitudes and become increasingly restricted (Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: snow-bed species;  Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: butterflies).

Adaptation options

The ability of some species to track changing climate space can be improved by provision of larger, better connected areas of suitable semi-natural habitat. This requires effective policy design and implementation across a number of sectors related to land use.

Policy areas directly concerned are biodiversity and conservation, agriculture and forestry. Relevant guidance is contained within the UK Biodiversity Action Plan, and relevant policies include the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and Scottish Forestry Strategy. Seabird populations can be affected through fisheries policy. For example, the EU Common Fisheries Policy, specifically regulations on discards, has impacted seabird populations. In the past, some scavenging species, such as Northern fulmar and gannet, benefitted from discards from fishing vessels; this may have led to populations increasing beyond a level that can be sustained by natural food sources.With a reduction in discards, scavengers such as great skua have had to find other sources of food, including greater predation of other seabirds.  

Agri-environment and land use planning policy are also important, along with funding mechanisms such as those contained within the Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP). However, experience has shown that it can be difficult to make such mechanisms work effectively for targeted action. One success story is the role of SRDP funding in helping improve habitat for the marsh fritillary butterfly on farmland in Argyll, while contributing to the economic viability of farming in a marginal area.

The EU Water Framework Directive is a driver for improving water quality, important for reducing agricultural run-off that adversely affects pond condition (Extent and condition of natural landscape connections: hedgerows and ponds). Landscape Scale Conservation schemes (Area of land under landscape scale conservation) have the potential to help create larger, better-connected areas of semi-natural habitat and there is evidence of their success in achieving species conservation objectives.

This approach is a good fit with ecosystem services-driven policy and complements agri-environment and river basin management schemes. For some species, more targeted solutions will be required, such as the designation of new protected sites to facilitate shifts to more suitable habitats in a changing climate. While a great deal can be done to improve the availability of habitat to enable species to track changing climate space, in some cases the future climate in Scotland is unlikely to be suitable for some species; for example projections show that by the end of the century Scotland’s climate will no longer be suitable for some species of seabird. However, other species may benefit from these changes, as evidenced by the northward spread of the little egret.

What do the indicators tell us?

Tracking changing climate space is underpinned by 7 indicators:

The RISK of species being unable to track climate space and move to new areas of habitat:

• Extent and condition of natural landscape connections: hedgerows and ponds (2016) monitors the extent and condition of landscape features (hedgerows and ponds) that provide ‘corridors’ or ‘stepping stones’ between areas of habitat, (particularly in agricultural areas) enabling monitoring of whether we are successfully increasing the connectivity of areas of habitat. Range shifts in species due to climate change have been observed. Adequate habitat connectivity is vital in facilitating movement to allow species to track changing climate space, especially in the highly fragmented areas of semi-natural habitats that are common in Scottish landscapes. Therefore it is important to monitor connectivity to see whether the ability of species to move to new areas in response to changing climate space in future is being maintained and enhanced. The extent of hedgerows and ponds has been influenced in the past by agri-environmental policy and associated incentives; this indicator can help monitor the efficacy of such policy. The indicator demonstrates that in recent years the extent and condition of hedgerows has declined, while ponds have increased in number.
   
• Proportion of ancient woodlands with declining overall suitability for lichen epiphytes (2016) uses bioclimatic modelling to assess the future suitability of habitat for lichen epiphytes which are habitat specialists, existing only in Scotland’s fragmented but undisturbed ancient woodland. This restricted distribution makes them excellent indicators for investigating the impact of climate change on species that are unable to easily track changing climatic space. The model indicates a regional difference, with a higher risk of declining climate suitability for lichens of ancient woodlands in eastern Scotland (continental climate) than in the west (temperate rainforest).

 Monitor and measure the IMPACT of climate change on selected indicator species:

• Abundance of breeding seabirds (2018); Abundance of wintering water birds (2018). Seabirds are a good indicator of the health of marine environments.  Food availability and climate change are considered to be the primary drivers of abundance and productivity of seabird populations in Scotland. Evidence shows that climate change is affecting migration patterns of birds, and the food chains they rely on. Many of our wintering water birds breed in the Arctic and are affected by changes in the quality of habitat there. It is expected that wintering water birds will continue to be affected by environmental change, with new species overwintering in Scotland and existing species shifting locations, both within Scotland and across Europe. This has consequences for the network of designated protected sites, with a need to ensure that sufficient refugia or designated sites are provided in new locations as required. Among overwintering waterbirds, trends in abundance are currently divergent for different species groups. Waders, as a group, have shown sustained declines since 2006. Ducks have remained stable and geese have shown large increases.
• Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: snow-bed species (2016); Abundance/frequency of specialist and generalist species: butterflies (2018).  It is expected that ‘generalist’ species that have the ability to thrive across different habitat types and environmental conditions will be better able to cope with a changing climate than ‘specialist’ niche species that are adapted to specific conditions. These indicators track specialist snow-bed bryophytes, and generalist compared to specialist butterfly species, respectively. In the case of snow-bed bryophytes, consistent trends at a national level have not been identified but a regionally differentiated pattern has emerged, with snow-bed bryophytes declining in the west but increasing in the east (Cairngorms), suggesting that structural change is occurring in snow-bed vegetation. For butterflies, generalist species have increased in abundance (1979-2013) while specialist species as a group have remained relatively stable. Climate change has enabled some generalist species to increase their range, while northerly distributed specialist species are expected to be negatively impacted; one such species, the large heath, has declined significantly in numbers in Scotland. 

Monitor what ACTION is being taken to adapt – to better manage the risks and increase resilience to the impacts identified above:

• Area of land under landscape scale conservation (2016). Landscape scale conservation (LSC) is increasingly recognised as an important tool in managing land to conserve and enhance biodiversity and ecosystem services. LSC can enable the creation of larger and linked areas of semi-natural habitat that can help species track changing climate space. This is recognised in policy, including the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and Scottish Forestry Strategy. This indicator provides an initial estimate of the scale of such areas. It can help provide an understanding of how effectively large areas of habitat are being conserved and restored. Larger, well- connected areas of habitat are more resilient to climate change and other stressors, and enable species to track changing climate space more easily. An increase in the area under LSC will indicate effective implementation across a number of policy areas, including agriculture and biodiversity (LSC can contribute to the Aichi Targets and Habitats Directive that are included in the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy). This is therefore a good indicator of the efficacy of these policies. There is currently a lack of information about the precise area under landscape scale conservation, in part due to the lack of a common definition of LSC to identify and measure projects consistently. A Landscape Scale Conservation Working Group has been formed to improve collaboration and share good practice; this group is part of the governance structure of the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy.

Indicators not yet developed:

Connectivity of key natural/semi-natural habitats

Connectivity of designated sites

Distribution of climate sensitive species

Amount of native woodland creation in existing native woodland habitat networks per year

Other relevant indicators

The Tracking Changing Climate Space narrative is closely linked to Resilience of the natural environment (terrestrial), which includes indicators that monitor the extent and condition of key habitats along with the action indicator Natural Capital Asset Index (2018).

Agricultural policy and practice is an important driver of land use. In Scotland, climate change is expected to present an opportunity to increase agricultural productivity, while globally there will be increasing demand for food and climate driven concerns over food security. Together, these drivers are expected to lead to agricultural intensification. To realise this opportunity while retaining the areas of habitat and connecting corridors needed to enable species to track changing climate space, careful management is required. This is monitored in indicators such as Proportion of farmland under High Nature Value farming systems and Sustainable Intensification.

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt
N3: Sustain and enhance the benefits, goods and services that the natural environment provides

Agricultural Intensification: Can production be increased sustainably?

Over 70% of Scotland’s land area is used for agriculture and so agricultural policy and practice is an important driver of land use. In Scotland, climate change is expected to present the opportunity of increasing agricultural productivity, while globally there are climate driven concerns over food security coupled with an increasing demand for food for a growing population. Together, these drivers are expected to lead to agricultural intensification. To realise an agricultural opportunity, while retaining the biodiversity and wider ecosystem service value of land, careful management is required. Historically, agricultural intensification has been the primary driver in depleting the range of ecosystem services delivered by agriculture.

The Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) classification system identifies the flexibility of land for different uses, with the ‘top classes’ that make up our best arable farmland being defined as Prime agricultural land. Much of Scotland’s agricultural land is currently not suitable for intensive farming – defined as Less Favourable Area (LFA) and is poor quality grassland dedicated to cattle and sheep farming.

Climate change is likely to directly affect the LCA classification in some parts of Scotland, primarily due to warmer summers. Increasing temperatures have already improved land capability and increased the area of prime agricultural land in Scotland (NA2 Area of Prime Agricultural Land). This favourable situation is complicated however by changes in other aspects of land capability, notably drought risk and wetness risk. Changes in land capability already occurring, and further projected changes, afford both opportunities and risks. There are opportunities to utilise an increased area of prime agricultural land to improve food security. This is particularly important in light of the projected increase in global demand for food with a growing population, together with the adverse impact of climate change on agriculture in many regions of the world. Agricultural opportunities could benefit Scotland’s rural economy and its economically important food and drink sector. The risks centre around the negative impacts of agricultural intensification on the ability of the land to provide ecosystem services that are vital to our society and economy, such as natural flood control, water quality and carbon storage. In the past, agricultural intensification has been accompanied by loss of biodiversity and other negative environmental impacts (NA8 Sustainable intensification index; NA5 Trends in breeding farmland birds).

Change in land capability due to climate change is just one driver affecting land use within a complex system that involves combined environmental, economic, political and social factors – market forces, government policies for agriculture, biodiversity, forestry and renewable energy (NA1 Comparison of land capability against actual land use; NA9 Proportion of farmland under High Nature Value farming systems). There are therefore multiple factors that come into play in determining whether flexibility of land use enabled by an increase in land capability actually results in an increased intensity of agriculture for the improved areas.

With increasing intensity of agricultural activity, the challenge is to achieve sustainable intensification. This would enable increased production, helping secure food supply in a changing climate, while maintaining/improving ecological, economic and social sustainability. The Sustainable Intensification Index (NA8 Sustainable intensification index) introduces a metric that can help evaluate trends in both agricultural intensification, and the sustainability of that intensification, measured in environmental, economic and ethical terms.

Adaptation options: How can we sustainably increase agricultural production?

A broad suite of agriculture and Land Use policies will play a key role in achieving the sustainable intensification of agriculture. As evidenced in the past, European and Scottish Government policy drivers and incentives such as the EU CAP and the Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP) can have a significant influence on outcomes. These in turn have wider interlinked policy implications, such as in meeting the objectives of the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy.

The ability of policy to influence agricultural practice is evident, with cascading effects for other policy areas such as biodiversity. For example EU funding in the 1970s and 1980s partly drove the intensification of agricultural production that led to declines in many farmland bird populations. In some cases targeted agri-environment and reserve management measures helped reverse these population declines, such as for corncrakes. EU legislation obliges the monitoring, support and maintenance of High Nature Value (HNV) farming systems, traditional extensive systems that provide a landscape that has biodiversity value. There is a potential conflict therefore between agricultural intensification and the need to maintain HNV farming systems.

There is considerable national and international support in policy circles for sustainable intensification as a means to increasing agricultural output (i.e. increasing production per hectare) while maintaining or enhancing the ecosystem services upon which agricultural production depends and meeting societal needs in an equitable way.

Policy measures apart, benefiting from an increase in the area of Prime agricultural land depends not only on climate but a number of interlinked factors – environmental, economic and social. Some areas will continue to be limited by soils and/or topography. Adaptation actions in terms of land management, such as appropriate irrigation and drainage, will also play a key role in maximising opportunities.

What do the indicators tell us?

The suite of indicators on agricultural intensification cover:

RISKS and OPPORTUNITIES associated with agricultural intensification

NA2: Area of Prime Agricultural Land (Land Capability) Land capability identifies the flexibility of the land for different uses; the best quality land for agriculture is defined as Prime land. This indicator monitors the amount of prime agricultural land in Scotland over time. It is a useful indicator provides it is used appropriately. It needs to be considered in combination with other aspects of land capability, notably drought risk and wetness risk (see indicators NA28 Wetness risk for agriculture (arable suitability and grassland suitability); NA29 Drought risk to agricultural land). There are approximately 11,000km2 of Prime agricultural land is Scotland. The long-term trend is for this area to increase, but with important short-term variations and geographic differences.

NA1: Comparison of land capability against actual land use  This indicator seeks to characterise the relationship between the capability of the land and its actual use, although as yet no single value indicator has been devised to summarise this relationship. The most recent published figures defining the relationship are for 2011 though data to support analysis for 2000-2014 are available. Given the growing body of evidence that the LCA classification is changing in response to weather and climate, understanding how this potential relates to actual changes in land cover is vital. A key limitation in using this indicator is the difficulty in adequately attributing change in land use to a host of complex and inter-related drivers: climate induced changes in capability together with environmental, economic, social and political drivers. 

Monitor and measure the IMPACT of potential changes in agricultural intensification on biodiversity

NA5: Trends in breeding farmland birds Historically, the intensification of agriculture has led to declines in many farmland bird populations. Birds are easily recognisable, well-monitored and provide a good indicator of the impact of land use change associated with agricultural intensification. If as expected future climate change leads to agricultural intensification, this indicator can help monitor whether such intensification is environmentally sustainable, i.e. continuing to provide suitable habitat and food for farmland birds. While agricultural intensification and land use change are important, attributing change among other potential drivers such as the direct impacts of climate change, or predation and disease, may be problematic. A smoothed trend 1994-2013 shows a steady increase up to the late 2000s, followed by a decline, so that overall abundance is not significantly different in 2013 than in 1994.

Monitor what ACTION is being taken to adapt – to monitor and manage changes and mitigate against negative impacts

NA9: Proportion of farmland (Utilised Agricultural Area) under High Nature Value (HNV) farming systems This indicator was developed by the Scottish Government to support the monitoring of the Scottish Rural Development Programme (SRDP) and the Scottish Government strategies such as the Land Use Strategy. It monitors the proportion of farmland that is under High Nature Value farming systems – traditional low intensity systems that include a mix of moorland, grassland and woodland. Such systems have declined historically due to poor economic viability. In its current form, the indicator is based simply on the classification of farm type. Lack of spatial data limits the level at which HNV farming can be calculated and mapped. There is the possibility in future to refine the indicator, for example by including uptake of specific SRDP measures related to HNV farming. In 2013, 2.4m hectares, 44% of farmland in Scotland was under HNV farming. A trend cannot be determined due to recent changes in farm classification; 2013 will be used as the base year for future analysis.

NA8: Sustainable intensification index (Scottish LFA beef sector) Scotland’s LFA beef sector is dominant within the agricultural industry and has potential for growth. Furthermore, the landscape and ecosystem services associated with this sector could be fundamentally altered if climate change leads to a higher LCA combined with increased demand. This indicator utilises the Index for sustainable intensification for the LFA beef sector, that includes indicators for three components of sustainable intensification; economic, environmental and social sustainability, and has been calculated for 2001-2010. It is designed to identify a trend over time that will indicate the impact of policy. There was no significant change in sustainable intensification in the beef sector (2001-2010), attributed to lack of policy drivers for either increasing production or improving sustainability.

Other relevant indicators

Soil management is a key element in the effect of agriculture and land use on climate change. It has the potential to mitigate climate change by maximising carbon storage, but also to release more carbon to the atmosphere. For example, the expansion of arable cropping and increasing the area under annual tillage could increase carbon loss to the atmosphere. The narrative Condition of agricultural soils is therefore closely linked to this narrative, along with Water quality and availability and Suitability and productivity (agriculture).

Agricultural landscapes are important in terms of the ecosystem services they provide and the biodiversity they support. The biodiversity narratives Tracking suitable space in a changing climate and Resilience of the natural environment (terrestrial) provide further information.

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt
N3: Sustain and enhance the benefits, goods and services that the natural environment provides

How is changing climate suitability affecting the productivity and sustainability of Scotland’s forestry?

Climate change is expected to bring both risks and opportunities to Scotland’s productive forestry.

The projected warmer climate will increase tree growth generally across the country (though there will be significant regional variability) with a resulting increase in productivity in areas not limited by water and available nutrients. This increase will also potentially aid the target of Forestry Commission Scotland (FCS) to increase the country’s woodland by an additional 100,000ha between 2012 and 2022. This would significantly contribute to Scotland’s emission reduction targets by locking up carbon in the growing trees. New woodland areas also bring wider environmental benefits and if spatially targeted within habitat networks will reduce habitat fragmentation.

Whilst a wider selection of species will be able to grow, particularly favouring high quality broadleaved trees in the South, the climatic changes will also alter the suitability of sites for species of trees already growing commercially in Scotland which could impact both positively and negatively on the productivity and sustainability of the forestry sector.

Changes in the seasonable distribution of rainfall are projected to increase the risk of drought in summer with a resulting decrease in suitability for species more sensitive to water limitations (e.g. Sitka spruce). Increased winter rainfall and a greater frequency of intense rainfall events will decrease the stability of slopes in some areas.

Milder winters and warmer wetter springs are likely to favour the abundance and distribution of over-wintering pests and diseases, and damage or stress resulting from drought, temperature extremes or storm damage will increase susceptibility to these pathogens.

An increase in periods of drought will heighten the threat to Scotland’s forests from wildfires. Though typically in Scotland the main damage from such events is to the understorey, even if tree mortality does not occur, fire damaged surviving trees are more susceptible to subsequent attack by pathogens or other stressors.

Wind throw can cause significant damage through uprooting and snapping of stems. Though there is still a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the projected impact of climate change on high winds and storm events in Scotland, it is known that forest stands in wetter soils are at greater risk from high winds. Furthermore, the projected increase in growth rate may mean forest stands reaching a height which puts them at risk at a younger age.

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on natural environment

How is changing climate affecting crop suitability and productivity in Scotland’s agriculture?

Agricultural management and productivity are very closely related to the climate, with any climatic changes potentially resulting in both risks and opportunities for farming. A survey carried out by Farming Futures (in 2010) identified that 38% of all farmers surveyed said they were already affected by climate change and nearly 60% expected to be affected in the next ten years.

There is significant potential for Scotland’s agriculture sector to benefit from projected climate change. For example, warmer temperatures will result in:

• Longer growing season;
• Increased growth rate and consequently higher yields for some crops;
• An increase in the range and type of crops that can be grown;
• Reduced frost damage to winter crops.

However, climatic changes also bring significant risks. For example:

• Temperature and rainfall extremes resulting in loss of productivity;
• Increased irrigation demand in some areas due to an increase in water stress during the summer;
• Increases in the duration and intensity of rainfall events resulting in flooding and water-logging;
• Loss of top soil due to wind erosion in drier periods and runoff during prolonged or heavy rainfall events ;
• Facilitated introduction and/or increased range of invasive species;
• Mild winters increasing the range and prevalence of pests and diseases for crops and livestock. Two of the most economically damaging for Scotland’s agriculture are both significantly driven by climatic conditions.
  • Potato late blight epidemics are largely driven by the weather with periods of free moisture (high humidity, dew and rainfall) and moderate temperature being optimal for pathogen infection and spread.
  • Liver fluke spends much of its complicated life-cycle outside the host cattle or sheep, either within vector snails, or as cysts or eggs on pasture, its prevalence, seasonality and geographic spread are very much affected by temperature and rainfall.

Climate is also one of the key constraints with regard to land use. In areas where the limiting factor is related to soil moisture, climate change could result in a shift from land that is capable only of providing rough grazing to land that could be potentially improved, along with a significant expansion in prime agricultural land in eastern and southern Scotland. However, an increase of drought risk in some currently prime areas may necessitate changes in cropping systems, varieties and/or water management. These changes in the potential pattern of land use may therefore place Scotland’s agriculture into conflict with other sectors in ensuring sustainable and effective use of resources.

Adaptation options

In order to maximise productivity levels and strengthen Scottish agriculture, it is important that the sector has both the capacity to capitalise on potential opportunities as well as the resilience to limit negative impacts from the risks.

The Land Capability for Agriculture (LCA) system provides a good measure of the availability of high quality (‘prime’) land for agricultural production as well as the distribution of other classes of land critical for the Scottish livestock industry. It is based on the degree of limitation that climate, soil and topography impose on agricultural production and cropping flexibility. Whilst it does not determine actual use, there is a good relationship between the classification it provides and potential use. Therefore, used appropriately the LCA can provide a useful framework to examine how different sectors of Scottish agriculture might adapt to climate change as agricultural opportunities increase or decrease dependant on the direction of change in LCA classification. The role LCA already has in both spatial planning and land management practice means that, if projected changes in classification are taken into consideration, it could also be used to scope and implement climate change adaptation strategies. The principles and proposals for sustainable land use contained in Scotland’s Land Use Strategy have the potential to maximise opportunities and minimise risks at a larger scale than reactive autonomous adaptation most commonly seen at farm level.

The projected increase in drought risk in current areas of prime agricultural land in East Scotland is likely to restrict some land use options unless irrigation supply is increased. However, analysis using 2050’s climate projections has identified ‘hotspot’ catchments based on current land use and management regimes where water supply will be limited. Whilst the majority of irrigation in Scotland is targeted at potato and horticultural crops, if irrigation was extended to reduce drought risk to cereals, then water-stressed catchments would become much more common throughout North-East and South-East Scotland. Long-term, farmers may therefore need to consider other forms of adaptation such as shifting cropping systems and changes to more drought resistant varieties. Declining river flows may also require regulatory intervention in order to maintain environmental flow conditions. SEPA are currently trialling a new approach to abstraction management, working with land managers in catchments that have been identified at risk of impact from irrigation abstraction and focussing on crop requirements, water efficiency, irrigation programming and use of storage ponds. ‘Farming for a Better Climate’ (Scotland’s Rural College) and ‘Future Proofing Scotland’s Farming’ (Soil Association Scotland, Quality Meat Scotland) provides practical advice to farmers which helps to support this approach.

Whilst average soil wetness risk is projected to reduce in some areas (enhancing land use options on currently marginal land), increases in heavy or prolonged rainfall events will lead to soils becoming periodically saturated resulting in increased runoff (and diffuse pollution of water bodies), erosion of fertile topsoils and impact on the workability (the capability of the land to support tillage) and trafficability (the capability of the land to support agricultural traffic without degrading soils) of the land in some areas.  The Scottish Soil Framework (2009) contains particular emphasis on the pressures exerted by climate change and identifies the suite of relevant policies which aim to promote the sustainable management and protection of soils. Practical guidance to protect and improve farm soils, and therefore improve the profitability of farm businesses, has been coordinated and published by Scotland’s Rural College.

Whilst the future trends of crop yields are largely difficult to predict, Scotland’s highest input crops, such as potato, winter wheat and winter oilseed rape, are sensitive to out-of-the-ordinary weather. Farmers therefore need to:

• Consider utilising crop varieties that are known to be least sensitive to these extremes;
• Phase out practices that are damaging to soil and replace with practices that result in improved soil condition;
• Reduce reliance on sensitive crops by devising a wider range of economic products from less sensitive crops;
• Devise cropping systems that are more stable and resilient (e.g. based on varietal mixtures and mixed-species crops).

Crop diversification not only buffers impacts on crop production due to extreme events or increased variability, but can also increase the ability to suppress pest outbreaks and reduce pathogen transmission which can have critical impacts on yield and profitability. European greening measures, targeted at addressing a range of environmental challenges, includes crop diversification. The rules governing this applies to around 30% of Scotland’s farms, but it is estimated that only 800-900 will need to grow any additional crops to comply, though many farmers are likely to need to reduce the dominance of their main crop. Between 2014 and 2015 the area of cereal crops planted fell by approximately 4%, which is seen as a reaction to the new crop diversification rules. However, given the inter-annual variation it is not yet possible to determine if the increase in diversity shown since 2013 is significant.

Diseases, pests and parasites have the potential to cause significant economic damage to agricultural businesses and it is therefore vital to maintain and improve reporting, monitoring research and management of critical species. The climatic variables which drive outbreaks of potato blight and liver fluke are utilised to provide a forecast for farmers which can enable preventative management and minimise the risk. AHDB Potatoes (a division of the Agriculture & Horticulture Development Board) provide the free Blightwatch scheme for growers across the UK, based on Met Office data, which predicts pathogen activity on the basis of minimum air temperature and relative humidity (‘Smith Periods’).  Liver fluke risk is forecast based on meteorological factors which influence the likelihood of summer infection of vector snails (‘Ollerenshaw Index’), which is presented as regional fluke forecasts online at the National Animal Disease Information Service.

Whilst farmers are more aware of the risk of liver fluke as a result of recent increased incidence, the tendency is to be more reactive than proactive and treat the stock with chemical flukicides. However the emergence of flukicide resistance is reducing the ability to control the parasite in endemic areas. Preventative measures such as pasture drainage to limit the suitable habitat for the intermediate host snails, need to be considered in conjunction with other land and water management requirements in order to provide sustainable options. In some areas, however, there is likely to be conflict with wetland/ agri-environment schemes for which the snails may act as an indicator species or be a conservation target.

Chemical control is also the main component of late blight management with multiple applications of fungicides each season. Although drier summers are likely to reduce the incidence of potato late blight, an associated increase in irrigation may counteract the reduction in disease pressure. In addition, increased temperatures mean that when the disease does occur it is likely to spread more rapidly. Increasing fungicide usage carries negative economic and environmental consequences, but current research funded by AHDB Potatoes aims to produce a more refined decision support system to improve decision making for growers and optimise the efficiency of fungicide use. Long term, growers may also need to adapt by growing potato cultivars with higher levels of blight resistance, but currently, processing quality and yield are the main drivers of variety choice which is demand led by supermarkets and processors.

There is generally good data availability regarding the risk of certain critical pests and diseases and recording of actual outbreaks. However, impact is largely represented by prevalence data rather than evidence of economic or biodiversity loss which could aid in the promotion of improved and sustainable management strategies both at farm and policy level. There also needs to be a greater emphasis on understanding which crop varieties, livestock breeds and agricultural systems are more resilient to climate change in general. Further research is also required to understand the scale and impact of changing land suitability and to develop integrated land-use planning strategies which take this into account. 

Sharing research findings and practical experience is a critical element in improving the resilience of Scotland’s agriculture as a whole. The Farming for a Better Climate programme provides practical advice, a forum for the farming sector and investigates, tests and shares practical measures to improve farm profitability via their Climate Change Focus Farms. Centres of expertise  such as EPIC (Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreak) and the planned Centre of Expertise for Plant Health bring together Scottish-based expertise to provide effective knowledge exchange, promote innovative thinking and coordinate research and analysis to provide evidence-based advice which supports policy development and implementation.

What do the indicators tell us?

CXC’s indicators focus on various aspects of exposure and vulnerability of Scotland’s agricultural sector to climatic changes; some of the resulting impacts which can influence productivity within the sector; and highlight actions to improve resilience to the risks and capitalise on potential opportunities:

The RISK (and opportunity) from climatic factors directly or indirectly influencing the suitability and productivity of current agricultural land use and management practice:

• Area of Prime Agricultural Land (Land Capability) monitors the amount of prime agricultural land in Scotland over time. This indicator needs to be considered in combination with other aspects of land capability, notably drought risk and wetness risk (see Wetness risk for agriculture (arable suitability and grassland suitability), and Drought risk to agricultural land). There are approximately 11,000km²of prime agricultural land in Scotland. Prime land has increased by ca. 4% but most expansion occurred during 1971-1990 and there have only been small changes since (though with distinctive geographic variations). The total amount of prime land stabilised in the most recent reference period (1991-2010), but future projections indicate a significant expansion (20-40%).
• Comparison of land capability against actual land use seeks to characterise the relationship between the capability of the land and its actual use, although as yet no single value indicator has been devised to summarise this relationship. The most recent published figures defining the relationship are for 2011 though data to support analysis for 2000-2014 are available. Given the growing body of evidence that the LCA classification is changing in response to weather and climate, understanding how this potential relates to actual changes in land cover is vital. A key limitation in using this indicator is the difficulty in adequately attributing change in land use to a host of complex and inter-related drivers: climate induced changes in capability together with environmental, economic, social and political drivers.
• Wetness risk for agriculture (arable suitability and grassland suitability) utilises a component of Land Capability for Agriculture that identifies constraints on land use options through its limitations on trafficability and workability for arable land and poaching risk from livestock on improved grassland. Most climate projections imply that average annual wetness risk will be reduced particularly in East Scotland which may enhance land use options for currently marginal areas. However, many upland areas (and North-West Scotland in particular) will continue to be limited by saturation of soils.
• Drought risk to agricultural land uses a component of Land Capability for Agriculture that identifies constraints on land use options through its limitations on water availability in the soil. Currently, a small amount of land suitable for arable cropping is exposed to drought risk due to the limited available water capacity of the soil at these locations but there is evidence that drought risk can become more pronounced in extreme years. Some future climate scenarios suggest that by 2050 as much as 50% of prime land may be defined as of moderate or severe risk of drought.
• Area of cultivation under glass or plastic structures uses data from the annual Agricultural Census to monitor the degree to which these structures are used to grow high quality soft fruits. Whilst growing under such structures can improve resilience to extreme weather and extend the growing period, these structures also increase the risk of some pests and diseases. The area of this type of crop management has increased from 80 hectares in 2003 to 1122 hectares in 2014, with the greatest increase being in 2012. It is important that the extent of structures, together with the efficacy of pest and disease management and impacts on surrounding land, are monitored to ensure they contribute to successful adaptation and not maladaptation.
• Risk of liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) in cattle and sheep monitors the risk to Scottish sheep and cattle farmers from this highly pathogenic flatworm parasite, whose distribution and abundance can be largely determined by climatic conditions. The average risk of summer infection has increased over the past four decades, in part due to milder winters which result in an increased survival rate of flukes and host snails.

The IMPACT on factors influencing productivity and the suitability of land use and management practice:

• Crop yields (including agronomic inputs and variability) examines changes in both crop yield itself along with the accompanying levels of fertiliser and pesticides used. Yields have been generally stable for at least the last 15 years, however the potential variability due to weather extremes is highlighted by the drop in 2012 due to the wet summer and autumn, as well as the high point in 2014 due to the particularly warm summer. It is the highest input crops (e.g. potatoes, winter wheat and oilseed rape) which are most susceptible to unusual or extreme weather and farmers will need to consider a variety of strategies to reduce their sensitivity.
• Abstraction of water for irrigation shows that during 2013 approximately 17 million cubic metres of water were abstracted for irrigation purposes which was 39% of the total licensed volume. Abstraction levels were significantly higher in the East reflecting the dominance of arable farming in this area. The greatest abstraction occurred in the Tay region which coincides with the area projected to see the greatest increases in irrigation demand.
• Range and prevalence of climate marker pests and diseases in crops: Number of potato blight outbreaks examines any changes in this potentially devastating disease whose cycle is driven by available moisture and temperature. Across Great Britain, 267 outbreaks were reported in 2014, but there is no clear trend observable from the data currently available over the previous decade.
• Prevalence of liver fluke (Fasciola hepatica) in cattle and sheep shows there has been a consistent increase in liver fluke incidence over the last 15 years, with the latest prevalence figures showing 16%-17% infection rates in sampled cattle and sheep. Whilst changing weather patterns have contributed to this increase, animal movement, flukicide resistance, and wetland restoration are also potential drivers of change.

Evidence of ACTION which can increase resilience of farming to the risks and capitalise on potential opportunities created by climate change:

• National agricultural crop portfolio and diversity index monitors diversification in Scotland’s crop portfolio as this has the potential to improve resilience by e.g. reducing pathogen transmission and buffering impacts on crops due to increased climate variability or extreme events. There has been no significant overall trend in diversity over the last 6 years, but between 1988 and 2015 there was an overall decline largely dictated by an increase in both wheat and oilseed rape and a decline in the dominance of spring barley. However, spring barley continues to dominate, with nearly half of all arable land in Scotland utilised for its production.

Other relevant indicators

Crop suitability and productivity are very closely related to the state of agricultural soils. This is examined in more detail in the narrative (and associated indicators) Condition of agricultural soils.

To realise an agricultural opportunity, while retaining the biodiversity and wider ecosystem service value of land, careful management is required. Historically, agricultural intensification has been the primary driver in depleting the range of ecosystem services delivered by agriculture. This is examined in more detail in the narrative (and associated indicators) Sustainable agriculture.

Climate change is also expected to bring both risks and opportunities to Scotland’s productive forestry. Two narratives (and associated indicators) focus on key issues for this other land-based industry:

• Pests, diseases and invasive species (forestry)
• Suitability and productivity (forestry)

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP) theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt

Is Scotland’s natural environment resilient to climate change?

Our natural environment is changing and will continue to change due to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. The exact nature of this change is uncertain because of the complex interactions between climate and other pressures on the web of species and habitats that make up our ecosystems. In turn these pressures affect the ability of ecosystems to provide services such as flood management, food and timber resources, carbon sequestration, landscapes of cultural, recreational and tourism value and helping to regulate air and water quality.

Direct impacts of climate change include the loss of some coastal habitats such as machair, one of the rarest habitats in Europe, due to sea level rise. Projected warmer, drier springs and summers are expected to lead to an increased wildfire risk and reduced water levels and flows in lochs and rivers. The projected increased frequency of intense, heavy rainfall events will result in more frequent flooding and soil erosion. Impacts that are indirectly related to climate change include an increased threat from some pests and diseases such as Dothistroma needle blight and invasive species such as rhododendron.

Apart from climate change, the natural environment is subject to a range of other pressures. Many of these are related to land use, land management and demand for resources. The warming climate is likely to lead to more land in Scotland being suitable for intensive cultivation (arable farming). Together with projected increases in global food demand, this is likely to drive intensification of agricultural activity. Scotland’s native woodlands are under pressure from multiple sources including non-native tree planting, habitat fragmentation, invasive non-native plants and animals, plant pests and diseases, deer browsing and atmospheric pollution.

Any of these pressures may impair the ability of habitats and the species they support to withstand the impacts of climate change. To build their resilience to this threat it is important to manage those pressures that we can influence. Ecosystems, habitats and species that are in good condition will be better able to withstand climate change. Larger and better connected areas of habitat are often more resilient and can help enable some species to move location in order to find suitable areas of habitat in a changing climate.

Climate projections indicate significant areas where active peat formation may no longer occur. Therefore it is important to protect existing peat resources and ensure appropriate hydrological conditions are created. Deep peat soils represent a very significant carbon store. Losing just 1% of our deep peat would release over 16 megatonnes of carbon to the atmosphere; more than Scotland’s total annual carbon emissions. The main threat for release of carbon from peatlands arises from degradation of these soils due to factors like erosion, drainage, fire, afforestation, over-grazing, pollution and peat extraction.  While land management is often at the root of these factors, this degradation can also be a ‘natural ‘process impacted to some extent by more recent shifts in climate.

The resilience of the terrestrial environment is closely linked to our water environment; for example land management practices can influence water quality and flood risk. Management actions need to be undertaken at a large enough scale to capture a complex web of ecosystem interconnections, such as landscape scale conservation or river catchment scale management.

Different views exist on the concept of resilience of the natural environment to climate change and what it means, e.g. how much resilience is enough? ‘Resilience’ is described by SNH as ‘a property which allows an ecosystem to maintain its characteristics under the impacts of novel processes and shocks’[1].

 Climate projections provide us with an indication of how Scotland’s climate may change in future. As mentioned above, there is much greater uncertainty surrounding the response of natural systems to these changes. The complex interactions within ecosystems, future development of pressures such as pests and diseases and land use changes (for example associated with climate change mitigation such as renewable energy) make it inherently difficult to predict responses to climate change. So it is difficult to know whether a species, habitat or system is resilient to climate change. There is a clear need to better understand the responses of natural systems to climate change. We know that healthy, biodiverse systems in good condition are more likely to withstand external pressures. To tackle some of these fairly intractable issues, a good starting point is to identify what is known about the condition of our natural environment now, the changes or trends that have been observed and what factors might have contributed to these changes. The indicators presented here gather that knowledge together to help build our understanding.

[1] Valluri-Nitch and Stone, 2015 http://www.snh.gov.uk/docs/A1744865.pdf

Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme (SCCAP)  theme: Natural environment

SCCAP objectives:
N2: Support a healthy and diverse natural environment with capacity to adapt

How is climate change affecting the pests, diseases and invasive species which threaten Scotland’s forestry and woodland biodiversity?

Pests, diseases and invasive non-native species (INNS) have the potential to disrupt key ecosystem functions and cause significant economic damage. Milder winters and warmer, wetter springs are likely to increase the risk from some over-wintering pests and diseases as a result of increased activity, reduced winter mortality and the potential to complete more generations in a season, resulting in larger populations. Other effects may be more indirect and result from a reduction in ecosystem resilience and therefore increased susceptibility to pathogens due to damage or stress as a result of drought, temperature extremes or storms. Changes in average temperature and rainfall will also alter the distribution of some native woodland species, facilitate the establishment of INNS and increase the invasive tendency of some.

Whilst the climate response function of these organisms vary, and non-climatic drivers (e.g. deliberate or accidental introduction via human activities) are often more significant, there are a number of organisms where climate is seen to be a critical driver which are already causing considerable impact to Scotland’s economy and wildlife. Two of the most significant risks come from:

• Phytophthora ramorum– a fungus-like pathogen whose distribution and prevalence is to a large extent determined by climatic factors. It poses a particular threat to larch, one of Scotland’s most important timber species, causing significant damage and mortality to infected plants.
• Dothistroma needle blight- which has become the most significant disease affecting coniferous trees in the UK and poses a particular threat not only to Scotland’s commercial forestry but also to native Caledonian pinewoods. It is believed that an increase in intense rainfall episodes coupled with warmer springs may have optimised conditions for spore dispersal.

Scotland’s forestry supply chain has numerous stages, from nurseries, forest management, and timber harvesting, through to transport, and processing. This supply chain needs to develop resilience in the face of climate change. However, climate change will impact on the stages of the chain in different ways, increasing the complexity of the interdependencies between the stages. Scotland’s forest sector also has interdependencies with other sectors, including agriculture and construction, which are also expected to be impacted by climate change. These impacts, and changes made in response to them, may have secondary impacts for the forest sector.

This report sets out a theoretical overview of climate change impacts on Scotland’s forestry supply chain, with a focus on forest wood products. It looks at impacts on the natural environment including forests, but also on infrastructure such as energy, water, transport and communication, and on business operations.

The lists of impacts are not and will never be exhaustive. The focus is on growers and nurseries, forest management, harvesting, transport, and wood processing. The aim is to provide a framework for discussion with forestry sector experts that:

• identifies climate change impacts on the forestry supply chain, and potential consequences of adaptation practices implemented in response; and
• ensures that lack of adaptive capacity at any stage does not restrict the overall resilience of the sector.

The Scottish Government is considering introducing a new Climate Change Bill, which will amend the existing Climate Change Act (Scotland) 2009 to strengthen the emissions reduction target for 2050 in line with the 2015 Paris Agreement objectives to pursue efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C

ClimateXChange, on behalf of the Scottish Government, has commissioned this Rapid Evidence Assessment (REA) and synthesis of key global assessments of the costs and benefits of climate change action in order to give context to Scottish Government’s decisions and as a basis for continuing policy development.

The study focuses on literature that has emerged since the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change (Stern 2007), and seeks to build upon previous review exercises.

A key message arising from this review is that estimates of climate impacts are inherently uncertain, so that climate policy needs to be assessed in terms of risk management, rather than straight-forward cost-benefit analysis.

The balance of evidence suggests that although the mid-point estimates of abatement cost may be higher than the mid-point damage estimates, it is reasonable to conclude that there is a considerable risk of much higher-than-expected damages which would justify the cost of ambitious abatement action. This is in line with the conclusion arising from climate risk literature suggesting that reducing the risk of exceeding tipping points is a key reason to aim for strong abatement targets globally.