This report reviews the available evidence on projected sea level rise and its implications for Scotland, with a focus on projections for the 21st century:

• the strengths and weaknesses of the information used to underpin risk assessment and adaptation planning in Scotland; and
• the main sources of uncertainty.

This information is used to review adaptation options in the face of uncertainty.

Key findings

• Sea level rise and coastal flooding are key climate change risks for Scotland.
• Scientific knowledge is advancing rapidly but projections for the 21st century are wide-ranging and have significant uncertainties, particularly regarding ice sheets in the Antarctic.
• The CCRA2 provides a comprehensive assessment, but more recent research suggests the projections that underpin it probably underestimate sea level rise
• The new UKCP18 projections are due to be published in November 2018 and will include significantly updated sea level data.
• Initial Met Office work suggests that, for the UK, central estimates of sea level rise in UKCP18 will be around 20-30% higher than under the UKCP09 H++ (high-end) scenario.
• To extract usable data from UKCP18 for adaptation planning users will need additional software ‘derived products’.

The process of risk measurement aims to quantify and measure risk over and above that which is expected i.e. it focuses on unexpected/catastrophic loss rather than expected/average loss. Risk management cannot eliminate risk but aims to take action to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring and to reduce the impact when they do.

This report looks at what lessons the Scottish forestry sector can learn from risk measurement and management approaches used in the financial sector.

We discuss a number of financial risk measurement and management approaches suitable to Scottish forestry, and consider how the approaches taken to measure and monitor risk, and the experiences of the finance sector – particularly during the recent financial crises – provide many lessons for the forestry sector as it seeks to adapt to the challenges of climate change.

Whilst many of the approaches outlined in this document are about reducing financial loss to the sector to ensure sector activities are preserved and supported, there are some lessons for wider preparatory approaches, and financial security itself will be an important factor in the resilience of the sector.

Achieving Scotland’s economic ambition means our businesses need to thrive and grow as the climate changes. However, currently we know little about how they deal with climate risks and how they make the most of the market opportunities from climate change.

The Adaptation Sub-Committee’s (ASC) independent assessment of the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme recommended that the Scottish Government should develop policies to support exploiting the economic opportunity, at the same time as encouraging businesses in high risk areas to become more resilient to climate-related hazards, ensuring continuous improvement through reporting and sharing best practice.

To support this work we have researched methodologies for baseline studies of both these aspects of making Scotland’s businesses climate ready:

• Proposing a methodology to assess the ‘adaptation market’ in Scotland. The report makes recommendations on how to progress the scoping and sizing of the Adaptation & Resilience (Climate Change) (A&RCC) Economy based on:
  • a definition of the sector based on previous assessments of the ‘green economy’
  • characterisation of earlier analyses ;
  • an indication of the range of data sources required to support these; and
  • options for a baseline study for Scotland.

This report is available here

• To develop a method for gathering the evidence on climate risks required to:
  • estimate the extent to which Scottish businesses are exposed to climate-related hazards;
  • evaluate the potential impact this may have on the Scottish economy; and
  • to understand businesses’ preparedness and their capacity to respond and recover.

The method includes a quantitative analysis of the potential impact of climate-related risks on each of the six key growth sectors and the design of primary research that will establish a baseline of vulnerability, highlighting sectoral differences.  The resulting evidence base will inform the development of the second SCCAP as well as being relevant to the future development of business and economic development policy.

This report is available here

This project looks at how climate change may affect the housing sector, and uses three case studies to illustrate how climate change adaptation can be part of delivering positive outcomes.

The case studies:

• demonstrate how sustainable urban drainage can unlock development sites as well as manage the water within them;
• highlight how sustainable urban drainage and water conservation measures can also facilitate community capacity building; and
• show how retrofitting micro-renewables and thermal storage can reduce fuel poverty and keep homes warm and dry.

These are important examples to illustrate the co-benefits of taking action to adapt to climate change.

How do people feel about wind farms when they are given an opportunity to learn more about the topic and consider and discuss it as part of a group?

This unique research project, the most comprehensive of its kind and a world first, asked three groups of people (citizens’ juries) to come up with criteria for decision making about onshore wind farms in Scotland. Despite the diversity of views in the groups, all three juries managed to develop and agree a list of principles, showing that people from very different backgrounds and with varying perspectives can work together through difficult issues and come up with solutions.

Scottish Planning Policy emphasises the importance of public engagement, requiring that it should be early, meaningful and proportionate. This project’s focus was to research public engagement and the potential for use of citizens juries in the decision making process.

Due to its cross-disciplinary nature and the connection with the climate change and participation agendas, the project was owned by CXC, the Edinburgh Centre for Carbon Innovation (ECCI) and the researchers themselves, without a specific policy customer. A multi-disciplinary research team ran citizens’ juries over two days each in three locations across Scotland with varying proximity to built and planned wind farms.

The ambitious research design broke new ground, had clear policy relevance and a link to the participation agenda in government. As such the project delivered transferrable lessons for any policy area.

“Involving people and communities in decision-making leads to better results, more responsive services and gives communities the chance to have a say on how ideas are delivered. This exciting project offers valuable lessons which will help our efforts to boost participation in local democracy and improve community engagement.”

Marco Biagi MSP, Minister for Local Government and Community Empowerment, address to launch event for Citizens Juries report, May 2015

The Wind Farm Impacts Study report, which is the first of its kind in the world, is rigorous and ensures appropriate siting of wind farms. Studies like this will make sure this improvement continues, and we will consider the recommendations carefully.

Scottish Government Renewables Routemap (2015; p. 13)

The potential impact of a wind farm development is central in the planning process. The Wind Farm Impacts Study was initiated following anecdotal evidence that the noise, shadow flicker and visual impacts on people living beside wind farms was not adequately assessed in the planning process. Groups campaigning against wind farms had been very active in the public debate with criticism of how local residents were prepared for the impact, and how it was measured: Was the planning system supporting accurate assessments of these impacts in advance of the schemes being constructed, and were people being sufficiently protected through the planning system?

From the start this project was designed with a stakeholder steering group which included both proponents and opponents of wind farms, to ensure the potentially contested results would be widely accepted. As a result of tight project management and the stakeholder scrutiny throughout the process, the robust report contained a series of well evidenced and forward looking recommendations. Stakeholders remain engaged and are taking forward discussions on how the recommendations can be addressed.

Through deep and regular engagement across all stakeholder groups we built relationships between the stakeholders that can be used to continue policy appraisals and deliberations. Our value was not just as ‘host’ for the research but also as chair of the steering group and arbiter of the perspectives represented on that group. The CXC project manager also acted as the public face of the project – projecting independence and neutrality vis a vis the interested public, the media, direct project stakeholders and the onshore wind industry.

Bringing in a wide steering group had profound impact on the design of the Wind Farm Impacts Study. Given the contentious nature of the issue, the credibility of the project rested with having the backing of the full range of stakeholders. Designing this into how the project was shaped and developed provided a forum where the different views could be discussed.

Contingency plans have the potential to increase adaptive capacity by enabling more rapid and efficient response to climate change risk events. As such, contingency plans provide economic benefits to forestry businesses, minimise the disruption to the natural environment, and support Scotland’s forests in continuing to deliver the widest range of ecosystem services.

This paper considers when contingency plans are necessary, and explores which climate risks to the forest sector in Scotland may benefit from national or regional contingency plans.

Contingency plans already exist across the forestry sector in Scotland, containing pre-agreed processes to be followed in response to a particular risk event, e.g. tree health and windblow contingency plans. However, we recommend that contingency planning should be part of the forest sector at all scales, from national and regional policy and planning to local application by forest managers. The plans should also cover wildfire, drought and flooding, and include projected impacts on infrastructure and forest businesses, and on important conservation habitats.

There is anecdotal evidence of overheating being an issue in some NHS facilities and in care homes, however the extent of this problem is not currently well understood.

ClimateXChange commissioned a scoping study to establish how extensive existing internal temperature data are which could be used to inform possible future research on the potential impacts of overheating in buildings housing vulnerable people in Scotland.

The study, which considered five sample hospitals with in-patient facilities, drew on questionnaire responses from facility teams, on-site surveys, and investigation and analysis of suitable data at this sites.

The research shows that given the complex, and in many cases, site specific nature of thermal comfort and overheating issues in hospital buildings, it may not be appropriate to link / group common overheating ‘issues’ to common hospital archetypes.

It was also found that whilst all sites generally aim to operate with a target operational temperature in the region of 21 to 22°C, there is anecdotal evidence of overheating issues being present in four out of the five sites examined within the study, at least at certain times of year, under specific external conditions or in specific areas of the facility. The study found that all sites generally used windows that could be opened, local fans and curtains/blinds to mitigate overheating, with varying levels of success. 

Whilst anecdotal evidence of overheating was identified, the study found a significant lack of data that would enable a robust assessment of overheating in in-patient areas. As no robust or easily interrogate-able data is logged or otherwise available, the study recommends that consideration be given to undertaking a programme of cost effective monitoring (of selected in-patient facilities) to capture data that will enable a robust assessment of the nature and severity of overheating at selected sites.

SCCAP theme: Buildings and infrastructure

SCCAP objectives:
B1: Understand the effects of climate change and their impacts on building and infrastructure networks
B2: Provide the knowledge, skills and tools to manage climate change impacts on buildings and infrastructure

How will climate change affect impacts caused by extreme weather?

There are a wide range of impacts that arise from extreme and challenging weather in Scotland.  Some of these are likely to be exacerbated by climate change, while others may be relatively unaffected.  Four major impacts of extreme weather on infrastructure are given in the table below which shows the different effects of climate change on each issue.  Challenges due to snow and ice are expected to reduce as the century progresses.  Geo-hazards such as landslides are expected to increase.  Flooding, which will also increase, is covered in a separate narrative – Flooding, Infrastructure and Climate Change.

Adaption options

Adaptation actions for all four impact types fall into the following three categories:

• Reduce exposure to hazards (e.g. by providing more robust / better designed structures)
• Reduce the consequences of the hazard (e.g. by using the affected resource more prudently, by reducing other pressures, and through preparation and readiness)
• Improve recovery from the hazard impact (by investing in effective recovery procedures). 

Policy levers to reduce impacts and to speed up recovery times may often work indirectly – for example through the regulations that govern the operations of utility and service providers (of water, energy, telecoms, trunk road operators).  As an example, penalties for service interruption act to incentivise operators to invest in appropriate defence and recovery schemes (energy suppliers are subject to such a scheme).   In this case, adaptation is achieved by third parties (utility providers) responding to regulations and incentives / penalties that favour good performance in the face of climate change.

Appropriate standards and regulations are important both for the Built Environment and for transport networks.  In this sector the policy levers that can help to achieve adaptation and resilience are ‘climate-informed’ standards and regulations.  Scottish Government’s Building Standards Division has already assessed several of its building regulations in relation to climate change.  Examples include water efficiency requirements and resistance to wind-driven rain.  Trunk road and rail track specifications are also subject to updates that reflect changing climate challenges.

Preparedness also plays a vital role in reducing impacts.  Utilities, the emergency services and communities can all benefit from measures that improve preparedness and recovery mechanisms.  The Scottish approach is set out in ‘Ready Scotland’ which supports integrated emergency management (IEM) to deal with emergencies.  Scottish Government’s Resilience Division and a wide range of associated delivery agencies manage the strategies, resources and actions needed to address climate impacts, as set out in the publication ‘Preparing Scotland’.   Examples of adaptation actions include: 

Transport Scotland works with others to minimise the impact of geo-hazard interruptions to transport networks. Initiatives include the following:

• Improved design of new or replacement structures to render them more resistant (e.g. slope stabilisation to reduce landslide risk)
• Planned assessment and maintenance programmes for existing infrastructure
• Improvements in transport hazard warning systems (e.g. the service ‘Traffic Scotland’)
• Improving the readiness and coping capacity of business and communities for such events
• Improving response and recovery mechanisms

Scottish Water is a key player in addressing reduced water availability, and actions include:

• Promotion of water efficiency measures and behaviours in homes and businesses
• Addressing water leakage rates 
• Capital investment in water infrastructure
• Improving the readiness and coping capacity of business and communities for such events
• Graded tariff structures designed to promote water efficiency (not yet in use in the UK)

Building Standards ensures that building regulations keep pace with climate change, so as to minimise the potential problems stemming from wind-driven rain.  Actions in this area include:

• Updating building standards so as to accommodate increasing climate challenges such as wind-driven rain and reduced water availability in summer
• Improving ventilation, drying facilities and occupant practice within existing buildings so that other sources of dampness and condensation are reduced 
• Supporting the retrofit of remediation measures for existing building stock

A range of utility providers work to ensure that the impact from damage to energy and ICT networks caused by storms, winds and lightning is kept to a minimum.  Actions include:

• Upgrading infrastructure to improve resilience to climate challenges
• Providing back-up servicing for vital facilities (eg power and ICT in hospitals)
• Improving the readiness and coping capacity of business and communities for such events

Improving response and recovery mechanisms to hasten the return to normal service

What do the indicators tell us?

The suite of indicators on challenging and extreme weather impacts cover the following:

Risks

Geo-hazards:  Older bridges (pre-20^th century) are more likely to be at risk of scour.  Major modern bridges are rarely susceptible due to advances in structural design and understanding of scour.   Recent figures show that under 11% of trunk road bridges have a moderate or higher susceptibility to scour.  However, over 50% of rail bridges are at moderate or higher risk of scour.  It is anticipated that climate change will increase scour risk for all bridges, but particularly for older bridge assets. See Road and rail bridges vulnerable to scour BT26

Buildings and wind-driven rain:  Buildings in a good state of repair are more likely to be robust in the face of extreme weather.  Disrepair may also increase the likelihood of penetrating damp.  The proportion of housing with some form of disrepair has remained similar since 2004, and disrepair is more common in older buildings.  28% of the Scottish Housing stock has some critical element disrepair that is also urgent.  See Building condition and disrepair BB16 (note that this indicator is both a risk and an action indicator) and Number of households/people falling below the SHQS & Tolerable Standard CRS58

Water supply:  At present, water shortages are not a serious problem in Scotland, and since 2003 there have only been four times where the water supply was at serious risk.   The percentage of customers relying on zones in deficit fell from 30% to under 6% between 2007/2008 and 2013/2014.  This was due to Scottish Water’s investments to improve water supply and to reduce leakage levels.   Nonetheless, nearly 40% of water supply zones still show a (theoretical) deficit in the calculated Supply Demand Balance (SDB) for 2014.  The incidence of deficit may increase unless water network investments keep pace with rainfall changes.  See Customers and zones vulnerable to supply deficit BW7 

See also:

Summer low flow events in Scottish rivers (Normalised Flow Index) NB27

Off-grid water supplies at risk of flooding CRS54

Impacts

Geo-hazards:  Landslides and scour are the two main geo-hazards affecting transport networks.  Over the 15 month period analysed there were 12 landslide events, causing 5 road closures (as compared to 567 flood events causing 8 road closures).  Landslides may result in road closures for several days. SeeLandslide events affecting the road network; Road closures due to landslides BT22/23; for comparison, see also Flood events affecting the trunk road network BT4

Effects of wind-driven rain:  Dampness in housing can arise either from condensation or from penetrating or rising damp.   Over 86% of housing sampled was free from any signs of damp or condensation in 2013. Of the remaining stock, around 3.7% shows signs of penetrating dampness, 0.7% had rising damp, and condensation affected 10.3%.  Only 1.3% suffered from both dampness and condensation. See Dampness in housing stock; Condensation in housing stock BB17/18 

Extreme weather and power supply:  High winds and lightning are both a major cause of interruptions to the power supply.  Winds and gales caused over 50% of lost time (570, 000 days-worth of customer interruption), snow, sleet and blizzard over 22%, and lightning over 15%.  Solar heat has a negligible impact at present (causing less than 0.5% of lost time). Various other weather-related causes of disruption, also of negligible impact, include ice, rain, subsidence, and freezing fog.  See Electricity supply disruption caused by severe weather events BE15.

ACTIONS:

Buildings:  Those in a good state of repair are more likely to be robust in the face of extreme weather, and more resistant to penetrating damp.  The proportion of housing with some form of disrepair has remained similar since 2004, and disrepair is more common in older buildings.  28% of the Scottish Housing stock, 28%, has some critical element disrepair that is also urgent. See: Building condition and disrepair BB16 (this is also a risk indicator).

Reduced Water Supply:  Scottish Water has successfully reduced leakage to the ‘Economic Level of Leakage’ (ELL) a year ahead of target – the point where the cost of reducing leakage becomes greater than the savings from reduced water production.   See Water leakage and losses BW6 

Water consumption per capita has fallen only very slightly since 2008/9.  Non-domestic water usage has reduced more noticeably. See Domestic water usage BW8, and Non-domestic water usage BW9.

It is hoped that future availability of suitable data will enable the development of a number of additional indicators:

• Uptake of water efficiency measures by domestic users
• Uptake of water efficiency measures by water intensive industries 
• Insurance claims due to storm damage
• Extent of Greenspace in Urban Areas
• Road network at risk of a landslide
• Risk of loss of road connectivity in remote areas as a result of landslides
• Landslide events affecting the road network
• Significant known road landslide risks addressed through intervention
• Road infrastructure spend on landslide mitigation measures
• Road and rail bridges in remote areas vulnerable to scour
• Bridge failures or unplanned closures due to scour-related issues
• Road closure days due to scour-related bridge damage

Other relevant indicators

Impacts from challenging weather such as high winds, storms, and lightning may occur at the same time as flooding impacts. The narrative covering Flooding and Infrastructure covers a wide range of indicators for this area. 

Some of the indicators covered in the Resilience and Resource Usenarrative are also linked, for example those tracking reduction in water leakage.

The health impacts as a result of storms, floods and extreme temperatures are covered by the narrative on Climate change risks to society and our capacity to adapt.