To inform a review of the Scottish Government’s climate change public engagement strategy, this report identifies and evaluates different approaches to grouping or segmenting the public according to their attitudes and behaviours related to climate change. In addition, to ensure the new strategy is based on the most up-to-date evidence, it reviews the dominant ideas on how to change behaviour.

Key findings regarding how to influence behaviour change are:

  • While there have been many studies published in this area recently, behaviours and practices remain the dominant lenses.
  • Behaviour change research remains a highly active area, but it has not seen any fundamentally different or significantly more effective approach introduced in the last five years.
  • There is a growing evidence base highlighting the limitations of focusing on changing beliefs and attitudes with the intention of changing behaviour.
  • Research also highlights the limits on what individual and collective choice can achieve and the limits of ‘nudging’ or manipulating choice architecture. This is not to say these approaches are not effective. However, a more interventionist approach is necessary to achieve the radical changes to our lifestyles required by the Scottish Government’s carbon-reduction targets.
  • Using an interrelated practice lens rather than the existing behaviour-based approach will have significant benefits in guiding the interventions required by our climate change obligations.

Key findings regarding segmentation:

  • Segmentation is a useful tool for helping to develop public knowledge and attitudes. However, it has limited effect on stimulating actions supporting new low-carbon behaviours over the long term when used to target information-based campaigns.
  • It is challenging to identify which segmentation variables (and in which combinations) are the most effective and should be used as the basis for targeted climate change engagement. This is due to a) the broad range of variables used across the themes of housing, transport, consumption/waste, food and diet; b) inconsistent and missing evidence across a large number of studies reviewed; and c) conceptual limitations of the dominant belief-attitude-intention pathway.

The research summarises the most important and trustworthy segmentation studies into two tables. Then, to allow users to identify the variables used and to what effect, the available evidence has been formatted into an online database.

 

Large areas of Scotland experienced significant water scarcity between July and September 2018. This resulted in over 500 private water supplies running dry nationwide.

165 of the reported supplies that ran dry were located in Aberdeenshire – a region particularly impacted because of a high number of shallow, surface-based supplies to private dwellings. 

However, the research found that the response to the crisis was generally effective and welcomed by those reliant on the private water supplies that had failed or experienced problems.

To reduce the pressures on Scottish Water and Local authorities, and the significant use of public funds during droughts, policy should aim to reduce the numbers of existing and new private water supplies.

This could be achieved through means such as improving assistance when pursuing a public mains water supply connection and encouraging new building developments to connect to the public mains supply rather than be reliant on a private water supply.

This project was completed by Chris Holdsworth as part of a funded internship under the ECCI Consultancy Innovation Programme.

This report looks at the governance of Flood Risk Management (FRM) in Scotland with the aim of identifying areas for improvement to develop shared agendas among all FRM stakeholders. Furthermore, this project includes the additional aim of investigating Transport Scotland’s (TS) role within Scotland’s FRM framework and whether their role should be reconsidered; primarily by discussing the potential for making TS a ‘responsible authority’ (RA) under the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act 2009 (FRMA).

This work is useful because there is a need to develop shared agendas among all stakeholders involved in FRM in Scotland. Currently, stakeholder objectives are not aligned on a nationwide level with many stakeholders operating under their own agenda and prerogative. While this is understandable, we believe there is an opportunity to focus on nationwide objectives for the progress of FRM in Scotland. This work is further useful as while TS operates to keep transport networks open and FRM is, therefore, part of what they do. They are not legally required to carry out FRM functions. For that reason, it is at least worth starting the discussion of whether TS should become a ‘responsible authority’.

This project was completed by Blair Mackie as part of a funded internship under the ECCI Consultancy Innovation Programme.

Scotland will experience more frequent and more severe droughts in the coming decades due to climate change. This will influence water availability for drinking water, agriculture and ecosystems.

This report looks at this future risk of water scarcity in Scotland, and the link between water scarcity and land use options. We found that mainly East-Scotland is prone to water scarcity in the summer, and that the expected wetter winters will not be able to make up for the lower precipitation in the summer.

As droughts become more severe and occur more frequently, water supply systems should become more resilient to droughts. This can be done by re-evaluating the balance between the costs for increasing resilience against low water supply episodes, and the probability of their occurrence for all water supply systems.

During re-evaluation, the expected low water episodes in the coming decades should be taken into account, as changes in drought risks are happening at a fast rate. This will help the prevention of water shortage during low precipitation episodes. These evaluations need to be performed by SEPA, who will need to collaborate tight with Scottish Water and the Scottish Government to improve the water supply system resilience.

This project was completed by Annemiek Waajen as part of a funded internship under the ECCI Consultancy Innovation Programme.

Changes in land management (e.g. increasing woodland extent) can increase the number of Lyme disease infected ticks. At the same time nature based tourism, which can expose visitors to ticks and infection, is an important contributor to Scotland’s rural economy and employment.

Sectoral decisions taken in isolation can potentially conflict with other policy outcomes. It is therefore important to recognise and untangle these cross-cutting issues. This paper sets out a method for characterising and analysing a cross-sectoral adaptation issue.

Lyme disease provides a good example of a cross-cutting issue, as the drivers and impacts of Lyme disease cut across a number of policy areas including: health, agriculture, forestry, conservation, biodiversity, rural economy, outdoor recreation and tourism. An informed approach to Lyme disease that accounts for complexity and interaction can help avoid conflicts and enable more efficient use of resources.

This report reviews the available evidence on projected sea level rise and its implications for Scotland, with a focus on projections for the 21st century:

  • the strengths and weaknesses of the information used to underpin risk assessment and adaptation planning in Scotland; and
  • the main sources of uncertainty.

This information is used to review adaptation options in the face of uncertainty.

Key findings

  • Sea level rise and coastal flooding are key climate change risks for Scotland.
  • Scientific knowledge is advancing rapidly but projections for the 21st century are wide-ranging and have significant uncertainties, particularly regarding ice sheets in the Antarctic.
  • The CCRA2 provides a comprehensive assessment, but more recent research suggests the projections that underpin it probably underestimate sea level rise
  • The new UKCP18 projections are due to be published in November 2018 and will include significantly updated sea level data.
  • Initial Met Office work suggests that, for the UK, central estimates of sea level rise in UKCP18 will be around 20-30% higher than under the UKCP09 H++ (high-end) scenario.
  • To extract usable data from UKCP18 for adaptation planning users will need additional software ‘derived products’.

The process of risk measurement aims to quantify and measure risk over and above that which is expected i.e. it focuses on unexpected/catastrophic loss rather than expected/average loss. Risk management cannot eliminate risk but aims to take action to reduce the likelihood of risks occurring and to reduce the impact when they do.

This report looks at what lessons the Scottish forestry sector can learn from risk measurement and management approaches used in the financial sector.

We discuss a number of financial risk measurement and management approaches suitable to Scottish forestry, and consider how the approaches taken to measure and monitor risk, and the experiences of the finance sector – particularly during the recent financial crises – provide many lessons for the forestry sector as it seeks to adapt to the challenges of climate change.

Whilst many of the approaches outlined in this document are about reducing financial loss to the sector to ensure sector activities are preserved and supported, there are some lessons for wider preparatory approaches, and financial security itself will be an important factor in the resilience of the sector.

Achieving Scotland’s economic ambition means our businesses need to thrive and grow as the climate changes. However, currently we know little about how they deal with climate risks and how they make the most of the market opportunities from climate change.

The Adaptation Sub-Committee’s (ASC) independent assessment of the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme recommended that the Scottish Government should develop policies to support exploiting the economic opportunity, at the same time as encouraging businesses in high risk areas to become more resilient to climate-related hazards, ensuring continuous improvement through reporting and sharing best practice.

To support this work we have researched methodologies for baseline studies of both these aspects of making Scotland’s businesses climate ready:

  • Proposing a methodology to assess the ‘adaptation market’ in Scotland. The report makes recommendations on how to progress the scoping and sizing of the Adaptation & Resilience (Climate Change) (A&RCC) Economy based on:
    • a definition of the sector based on previous assessments of the ‘green economy’
    • characterisation of earlier analyses ;
    • an indication of the range of data sources required to support these; and
    • options for a baseline study for Scotland.

This report is available here

  • To develop a method for gathering the evidence on climate risks required to:
    • estimate the extent to which Scottish businesses are exposed to climate-related hazards;
    • evaluate the potential impact this may have on the Scottish economy; and
    • to understand businesses’ preparedness and their capacity to respond and recover.

The method includes a quantitative analysis of the potential impact of climate-related risks on each of the six key growth sectors and the design of primary research that will establish a baseline of vulnerability, highlighting sectoral differences.  The resulting evidence base will inform the development of the second SCCAP as well as being relevant to the future development of business and economic development policy.

This report is available here