Accounting for uncertainty in aggregated emissions

In developing the next Climate Change Plan, policy experts are trying to estimate the impact of a large number of climate change policies on greenhouse gas emissions.  

The method used to make and quantify these estimates can result in significant differences in the projected impacts. For example, just assuming that all policies achieve either their plausible best-case or worst-case outcomes simultaneously can give an indication of the upper and lower bounds, and the range of potential impacts. However, such perfect alignment across all policies is highly improbable—and adopting this approach does not indicate how likely any given value within that range is.  

Given these limitations, this briefing paper suggests that a Monte Carlo simulation is well-suited for this type of uncertainty analysis.

For further information please read the report. 

If you require the report in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783. 

Image credit: Efraimstochter from Pixabay