ScotClimATE: A tool for understanding future extreme weather in Scotland
As global temperatures rise, extreme weather events are already affecting people, infrastructure, services and places across Scotland.
To support forward-looking adaptation planning, decision-makers need practical ways to translate climate science into action. ScotClimATE was developed to meet this need by helping Scotland’s public bodies understand how extreme weather risks may evolve in a warmer world.
It allows decision-makers to explore projected changes in extreme weather events under different levels of global warming. It focuses on key hazards relevant to adaptation planning: extreme heat events, sustained heat over three days, extreme rainfall in a single day, and extreme rainfall sustained over three days.
The tool employs methods from scientific literature and applies them through a new analysis of UK Climate Projections (UKCP18), an up‐to‐date and well‐tested ensemble of climate projections for the UK.
It uses a simple model for projecting Scotland’s annual average temperature based on global warming level and statistical models of the intensity and return periods – measures of the magnitude of extreme events and their frequency – at different temperatures.
The tool was developed in collaboration with the Scottish Government Adaptation team, alongside user feedback from the Public Sector Climate Adaptation Network.
ScotClimATE is designed to meet the needs of Scotland’s public bodies for strategic adaptation planning.
- It provides interactive visualisations of projected changes in extreme heat events, sustained heat, extreme rainfall and extreme sustained rainfall.
- It allows users to visualise how magnitude and frequency of these extreme events change using UKCP18 data under global warming changes from +0°C to +4°C.
- Results are projected onto an interactive map of Scotland.
- The tool is designed for understanding infrequent, high-intensity events but does not provide projections for flooding, storminess or storm counts.
ScotClimATE fills a critical information gap in the adaptation toolkit, complementing existing tools – such as SEPA Flood Maps or the Local Authority Climate Service – by visualising low‐frequency, high‐impact extreme events. This helps complete the suite of resources needed for comprehensive climate scenario analysis.
Before using ScotClimATE, please refer to the guidance document for more information about using the tool and its limitations.
To try ScotClimATE, and to view guidance on how to use the tool, visit the Adaptation Scotland website.
For further information, please read the report.
If you require the report in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783.