Estimating the costs and impact of decarbonising heat in the public sector

Scotland’s net zero targets require the decarbonisation of all buildings, and the public sector has an important leadership role in demonstrating ways to reach those national goals.

This project explored evidence on the costs, opportunities and barriers of decarbonising heat in Scotland’s public sector buildings. The costs given in the report represent the wider investment and economic opportunity to decarbonise public sector buildings, for which the Scottish Government may have potential to leverage a range of funding models.

Findings

• The investment requirement to decarbonise the public sector by 2045 ranges from £3.3 billion to £8.8 billion. This estimate should be read as a high-level indication of the likely range, rather than the realistic investment.
• Targeting certain types and sizes of buildings could prove more economically effective from an emissions savings perspective. For instance, the largest 10% of buildings in the public sector have an estimated 37% of the share of greenhouse gas emissions and could be decarbonised at an estimated cost of £2 billion.
• Barriers include the absence of a central database of public sector buildings and projects, a lack of both staff and required skills which increases reliance on external consultants and concerns around high capital costs of decarbonisation projects.
• Opportunities include the promotion of success stories to showcase successful funding projects and knowledge sharing, retraining and upskilling staff, and developing a new procurement framework as an opportunity to help alleviate issues such as a lack of confidence and control.
• Recommendations identifying evidence-based actions that address key barriers and opportunities for decarbonising public buildings are categorised into four themes:
  1. Improving data availability and utilisation.
  2. Clear retrofit and decarbonisation pathways for public buildings.
  3. Upskilling public sector officers to enable delivery at scale.
  4. Central coordination to support public bodies on key challenges.

For further information, please read the report.

If you require the report in an alternative format, such as a Word document, please contact info@climatexchange.org.uk or 0131 651 4783. 

Note: This research was carried out in 2024/25, based on data available, policy and market conditions at that time. Findings should be understood in the context of the market, data availability, and policy landscape having evolved since this research was conducted.