DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/4346

Executive summary

Aims

This research is a rapid review, presenting and examining evidence relating to climate change and digital connectivity such as:

• whether investment in digital connectivity can support reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and, if so, how
• examples of relevant policies and impacts
• the best options for assessing emissions from digital connectivity and services in Scotland
• key evidence gaps in these areas.

The review was undertaken between October and the middle of December 2023 and was focused on and bounded by specific criteria set out by the Scottish Government and ClimateXChange steering group. The study team were asked to only include information and projects that were current and operating, not theoretical. Search terms were selected and agreed with the steering group.

We used a methodology known as “claim, argument, evidence” to assess whether claims made within certain arguments were true or false. We classified evidence as having low, moderate or good confidence levels, based on its volume and quality, and the level of agreement in the literature reviewed.

Findings

We have found mixed evidence of the decarbonisation impact of digital connectivity and whether it contributes to adaptation and a just transition. Our main findings on basis of the literature reviewed are:

• The Information Communications Technology (ICT) sector is a source of GHG emissions. The sector’s energy consumption and generation of electronic waste (e-waste) generates GHG emissions directly. This is despite the possibility that it can reduce emissions indirectly by increasing efficiency and through behaviour changes like reduced travel due to remote meetings. Studies point out a need for a holistic approach in calculating GHG emissions of the ICT sector, to fully account for indirect emissions and emissions from end-of-life.
• ICT technology and digitalisation reduce GHG emissions in other industries. Heavy industry and the energy sector would benefit the most from digitalisation. To achieve this, there would need to be widespread high-speed internet coverage, which would likely generate further GHG emissions. On their own, digital connectivity infrastructures do not support emissions reduction. They provide a mechanism to support decarbonisation of other sectors.
• The GHG emissions associated with e-waste are of growing concern internationally. Even though ICT use could help reduce GHG emissions in other sectors, it is uncertain whether this can outweigh the direct emissions of the ITC sector. It gives us only moderate confidence that the ICT sector can help reduce more emissions than are inherent in the manufacture, use and disposal of the equipment used.
• The indirect impact of ICT technologies can either lead to a net reduction in carbon emissions or to a net increase. The overall effects depend on context. Rebound effects can lead to increases in emissions. Policy and measurement do not usually account for these effects. Human behaviour plays a part in whether the indirect impacts on emissions are positive or negative. This means that it is not solely down to technology and therefore we are only moderately confident that the challenge of emissions reduction can solely be met by utilising digital technology.
• We are unable to say whether digital connectivity supports climate adaptation because of the small number of ex-post studies in this area. With regard to a just transition, digital connectivity and ICT can have either a positive or a negative effect, either addressing or exacerbating existing inequalities such as access to digital connectivity and skills. Studies repeat the need for strong policy in this area.

Within the literature reviewed as part of the study, we identified gaps in knowledge, including:

• Lack of evidence on whether investment in digital connectivity directly reduces GHG emissions, or contributes to a just transition and how.
• There are varying approaches to quantifying direct and indirect emissions of ICT and to comparing the GHG emissions of digital and non-digital practices and solutions.
• Climate adaptation in relation to ICT is either an afterthought or future looking, with few real-world examples.
• Case studies of digital technologies saving money, power or water in municipalities focused on the GHG emissions reduced or averted, with no acknowledgment of rebound effects, which literature states is important.
• The GHG emissions of data collection and use necessary to digitalisation are opaque and limited to specific studies on data centres.
• Lack of evidence of policy to address GHG emissions of e-waste or the embedded emissions from extraction of raw materials and production of ICT equipment.
• Lack of best practice for measuring, monitoring and assessing the GHG footprint of electronic communications services.

Glossary

Introduction

Need for this research

The extent to which the development and deployment of digital and data solutions supports the reduction of a country’s greenhouse gas footprint, assists in adaptation, and contributes to a just transition is unclear. Digital technologies have become an integral part of our lives, but they also have an environmental impact, including the production of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) during their manufacturing, use and disposal.

In recent years, over £1 billion has been invested in programmes to enhance digital connectivity in Scotland, for a variety of anticipated outcomes relating to regional equity and opportunity. These include Digital Scotland Superfast Broadband (DSSB), Reaching 100% (R100), Scottish 4G Infill (S4GI), and the Scotland 5G Centre, with a regional network of 5G Innovation Hubs to facilitate widespread deployment of 5G.

Digital connectivity, and increasing access to it, is the focus of many Scottish Government policies. The Digital Strategy, ‘A changing nation: how Scotland will thrive in a digital world,’ is the policy backbone, setting out actions on: broadband and connectivity; data and statistics; digital inclusion and ethics; digital, data and technology profession, skills and capability; Transforming public services; and the Technology Assurance Framework. Enhancing Scotland’s digital infrastructure, both nationally and internationally, has also been a stated priority in successive Programmes for Government and the 10-year National Strategy for Economic Transformation (NSET) published in 2022. There is a lack of current evidence on the extent of the potential contribution of digital connectivity to Scotland’s climate change goals, not least of achieving net zero by 2045.

Project aim

The aim of the project is to examine recent research on climate change and digital connectivity to answer the following questions:

• To what extent is there evidence that investment in digital connectivity can support emissions reduction, climate adaptation and a just transition?
• If so, what are the key mechanisms by which this could occur (for example, reduction in travel, investment in green data centres or other mechanisms suggested in the evidence)?
• What are key examples of existing policies (in Scotland, such as in Local Authorities, the UK and/or international examples from comparable countries) designed to support emission reductions, adaptation, and/ or just transition through digital connectivity? Is there any evidence for the impact of such policies?
• What are the different options suggested within the literature for Scotland to provide a baseline assessment of, and monitor carbon emissions from digital infrastructure, technologies, and associated activities?
• What are the other key gaps in existing knowledge where further research is required to support digital connectivity and Scotland’s climate change goals?

These questions are answered in Sections 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9. By better understanding the mechanisms in which digital connectivity supports Scotland reaching net zero, policy makers will know how to influence what they want to occur.

Key terms used throughout the report are explained in the Glossary in Section 2.

Components of the digital landscape covered by this research

The focus of the research is digital connectivity. This can encompass a wide range of products and services. Figure 1 sets out the boundaries of the research undertaken to inform this paper, including:

• infrastructure such as fixed broadband, mobile connectivity and data centres
• application, use and behaviours such as artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things, data driven products and services, and practices such as home working
• the list of countries with applicable learning for Scotland.

Figure 1 – The landscape of digital connectivity defined as within scope of this research.

Approach to the research

This section provides an overview of the research approach. Our full methodology is outlined in Appendix 1.

Methodology for collecting evidence

Frazer-Nash Consultancy (Frazer-Nash) was tasked with completing this research for ClimateXChange (CxC) on behalf of the Scottish Government Digital Connectivity Division. A steering group was set up consisting of representatives from Scottish Government, CxC and Frazer-Nash.

We followed an approach based on the Double Diamond approach of Discovery and Define^[1], including literature gathering, revising and providing initial conclusions, and further developing conclusions before developing the report. We socialised the initial and final conclusions with the steering group. Keywords for the literature search were also agreed with the steering group. The literature reviewed was identified through google and google scholar searches. The review was focused on and limited by specific criteria, such as the non-inclusion of theoretical studies around “what is possible”, with an emphasis on current and recent experience.

Methodology for policy review

One of our research questions requests a review of policies which were designed to support emission reductions, adaptation or just transition through digital connectivity. To determine the geographic scope of the research, we chose countries analogous to Scotland facing similar digital connectivity challenges, that is, large landmasses with areas of low population density, and a number of isolated and rural remote communities. This list was agreed with the steering group and consists of: Finland, Wales, Portugal, Norway, Sweden, Estonia, Canada (Ontario), New Zealand, Denmark, and Iceland.

We use a star key (Table 3) to rate the extent that digital connectivity and emissions reduction are linked within a country’s policy.

Section 7 sets out the policies we found and reviewed.

How we have presented our findings

By following this methodology, we came up with a series of statements based on the findings from our research. These are presented in Section 5 and 6 with a structure as follows:

• Claim: a conclusion formatted in bold and accompanied by a statement of confidence in our conclusion.
• Argument: concise statements explaining how we arrived at the conclusion.
• Evidence: synthesis of literature in support of our argument.

We have provided a confidence level based on the extent of agreement in the literature and the robustness of evidence. We follow a methodology similar to the one developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the fifth assessment report and used for the sixth for the consistent treatment of uncertainties.

Figure 2 sets out what constitutes low, moderate, and good confidence in our claims.

Low agreement is where sources do not agree.

Medium agreement is where sources make broadly similar conclusions but the data or evidence they use to support their conclusions are very different.

High agreement is where sources independently make similar conclusions and underlying data are similar despite being independent.

Limited evidence is some evidence available but largely anecdotal and not from recognised peer reviewed sources. Availability of data was low.

Medium evidence is information from peer reviewed sources or official sources.

Robust evidence is a greater volume of information from peer reviewed sources and official sources.

The combination of low agreement and limited evidence provides the lowest level of confidence and the combination of high agreement and robust evidence provides a good level of confidence, with combinations in-between generating moderate confidence.

Our definitions for “limited”, “medium” and “robust” evidence are described in Appendix 1: Detailed Methodology & Approach to the Research. This means that when we say we have “good confidence” in a finding, we are content that there is medium to high agreement in the literature and medium to robust evidence provided for that claim.

Figure 2 – How extent of literature agreement and evidence robustness combines into our stated confidence level.

Investment in digital connectivity and emissions reduction

Digital connectivity, technologies and GHG emissions

We have good confidence in the evidence that, taken on its own, digital connectivity and digital technologies are sources of GHG emissions.

Digital connectivity enables a range of ICT applications. The underlying infrastructure that makes it all work often gives rise to GHG emissions. It depends on the structure of the primary energy and electricity generation sectors of the countries where ICT goods are produced and used, as well as the materials used, such as plastic. These emissions arise across communication equipment such as fixed and mobile broadband, datacentres, cables, and the computers or devices themselves.

The ICT sector is responsible for around 3% to 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions (UNEP, 2021). In Scotland, using domestic output and supply and the environmental input-output model greenhouse gas effects data, the sector contributes around 2% of direct and indirect emissions of carbon dioxide equivalent^[2]. It is also true that regions and countries with higher levels of digital economy development have higher GHG emissions (Wang, et al., 2023). Between 1995 and 2015, GHG emissions of ICT manufacturing have doubled and demand for materials to develop more ICT equipment has quadrupled in the same time period (Itten, et al., 2020).

Besides the high-energy consumption of ICT and electronic equipment, many energy-intensive infrastructures such as backhaul and data centres need to be built to achieve digital connectivity (Lin & Huang, 2023). This means that GHG emissions will increase as a country or region digitalises, up to a certain point (explored further in section 5.1.2). On their own, digital connectivity infrastructures do not support emissions reduction. They provide a mechanism to support decarbonisation of other sectors.

Digital connectivity, emissions reduction and other economic sectors

We have good confidence in the evidence that digital connectivity can only support emissions reduction when paired with other economic sectors.

Digital connectivity is hailed as an enabler for decarbonisation. Despite being a source of GHG emissions themselves, they enable other sectors to digitise in ways that improve productivity and efficiency. The mechanisms by which this is achieved are explored more in Section 6. Essentially, ICT products and services allow traditional industry to change their methodologies to curb GHG emissions (Wang, et al., 2023). Many policymakers hope that the reduction in GHG emissions achieved by these sectors will outweigh the ICT sector’s emissions, as suggested by the European Commission, which states: “If properly governed, digital technologies can help create a climate neutral, resource-efficient economy and society, cutting the use of energy and resources in key economic sectors and becoming more resource-efficient themselves. When implemented under the right conditions, digital solutions have demonstrated significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, increased resource efficiency and improved environmental monitoring.” (European Commission, 2022)

Many policies are reliant upon a viewpoint that, on balance, digital innovation to reduce GHG emissions will outweigh the emissions cost of producing and maintaining the necessary ICT networks and components. It is less common for papers to acknowledge there is an initial increase in GHG emissions (particularly from energy use) at the onset of digitalisation. Nor are there many papers discussing the point at which digitalisation starts to reduce emissions.

Lin &Huag is another paper that does address this issue (Lin & Huang, 2023). They state that with increased digitalisation, the resulting increased digital connectivity meant that an energy saving effect could be scaled up across the economy. This marginal energy saving effect exceeds energy consumption of the system – this could be seen as the point at which the GHG savings which result from efficiencies outweigh the GHG emissions from the energy use, production of devices and so on involved in digitalisation. Lin and Huang refer to this point as ‘digitalisation level 0.43’ (Lin & Huang, 2023). The digitalisation level indicator used in the paper is based on data on digital infrastructure, such as internet access and bandwidth, digital application, e.g. fixed and mobile subscription and digital skills and on aggregate ranges from 0 to 100%, using a weighted average for the component elements of the indicator. The paper stipulates that most developed countries have passed the 0.43 point, and it is reasonable to assume that this is the case for Scotland. The assumption of the inverted U-shaped relationship is well tested in the paper, see image in Figure 4. However, the slope of the downward curve is not specified and therefore the applicability of the analysis to Scotland is uncertain, however it is likely to depend on other factors such as the structure of the economy. (Lin & Huang, 2023) make no comment on obsolescence or upgrades to physical equipment.

Figure 4 – Country-level energy intensity against digitalisation; adapted from (Lin & Huang, 2023).

Paired with industrial sectors, there is therefore good evidence that digital connectivity supports emission reductions.

Indirect impacts from ICT use on GHG emissions

We have good confidence in the evidence that indirect impacts from ICT use can be both positive and negative for GHG emissions.

ICT can have both increasing and decreasing effects on GHG emissions. These can be direct or indirect. Direct impacts include energy consumption while the device is in use. Indirect impacts include secondary benefits such as more people being able to work from home and associated reduction in commuting emissions. While digital connectivity can reduce transport through, for example, hosting virtual meetings, some studies postulate that it could also increase emissions from transport by creating the desire to travel to places seen on the internet (Bieser and Hilty, 2018; Hilty and Bieser, 2017; Wang, et al, 2023). Many studies which look at quantifying both, the direct and indirect effects of ICT use, often conclude that the indirect effects are favourable (i.e., reducing GHG emissions) and far outweigh direct effects of energy use. However, these studies often neglect factors such as stimulating transport demand, rebound effects, behaviour changes of humans using these systems, or the embedded carbon of the product or service (Itten, et al., 2020).

The CxC study on emissions impact of home working in Scotland found a small reduction in commuting and office emissions and an increase in home emissions. However, how these changes in emissions balance for each individual defines the net emissions impact from homeworking (Riley, et al., 2021).

Therefore, we conclude from the literature reviewed, that the evidence remains divided in which is more significant: increasing or decreasing effects on GHG emissions.

Emissions reduction and digital technologies that rely on connectivity

We have good confidence in the evidence that the challenge of emissions reduction cannot be met without digital technologies that rely on connectivity.

A great number of the studies and policies we read stated strongly that the challenge of emissions reduction and climate adaptation will not be met without the intervention or use of digital technology and tools (including Royal Society, 2020; Exponential Roadmap Initiative, 2023). The three technologies most often hailed as transformative to all sectors of the economy are 5G, the Internet of Things (IoT, connected devices pooling data often in real time for decision-making) and artificial intelligence (AI, computer-based machine learning).

Many papers assert that digital technology has the potential to assist the transition to a low carbon world, enabling global emission reductions while limiting the emissions created by ICT use (Royal Society, 2020). Some claim that if the currently available digital solutions were used at scale, there would be the potential to reduce GHG emissions in the three highest-emitting global sectors (energy, materials, and mobility) by 20% by 2050 (World Economic Forum, 2022). There was no concrete evidence in these papers that connectivity would enable these goals to be met, only claims.

Sectors that will benefit the most from digital connectivity

We have good confidence in the evidence that suggests that the sectors that will most benefit from digital connectivity are industrial in nature and will vary from country to country.

The sources above state the energy sector would benefit the most from digital solutions. In Scotland, the energy sector is the fourth highest emitter at 4.9 million tonnes of CO₂e in 2021 (Scottish Government, 2021). With regards to electricity in particular, the complexity and scale of integrating more renewable energy generation and increasing the distribution capacity of the electricity grid will not be possible without digital technologies (Energy Systems Catapult, 2023), especially with increasing requirements for data sharing and more effective system planning and operation. Renewable generation is intermittent and requires active grid management. Digital technologies can help balance the supply side (electricity producers) and the demand side (consumers) management for a more agile, stable and reliable electricity grid for industrial, commercial and household users.

The industry sector is globally responsible for 37% of total final energy consumption and about 20% of GHG emissions. In Scotland, industrial processes and business account for 20% of CO₂e in 2021.

As described in 5.1.4, digital technologies will be important to manage the supply and demand of large industrial energy users in a system with diverse sources and feedstock (European Commission, 2022).

The effective use of these digital technologies relies on connectivity. Without it, none of the claims explored in literature can come to fruition.

The emissions intensity of digital connectivity

We have moderate confidence in the evidence that the lowest emissions form of digital connectivity is currently fibre.

One study has found that fibre is the most energy efficient technology for broadband access networks, compared with the family of Direct Subscriber Line (DSL) technologies delivering network access through voice lines and Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (DOCSIS) which delivers network access through cable television (European Commission, 2020). Studies brought together by Europacable also demonstrated that fibre is the most energy efficient technology for internet access compared to microwave, millimetre wave, copper, satellite, and laser (Europacable, 2022). This is because there are fewer intermediate devices and amplifiers, and glass fibre is largely passive and requires little energy to function.

Although 5G networks are touted to be more energy efficient than 4G networks, the overall energy and emissions impacts are still uncertain. 5G antennas use three times as much energy as a 4G antennae, and a higher network density will be required (International Energy Agency, 2023). Literature on the energy use of 5G is found to be dominated by small-scale, single technology assessments. Embedded energy use and indirect energy use effects are largely overlooked (Williams, et al., 2022).

Satellite broadband is a less disruptive approach to connect rural areas to the internet, requiring less work on land to lay cables, however the GHG emissions of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites are only recently being explored. An October 2023 study estimates worst-case emissions to be 31-91 times higher than equivalent terrestrial mobile broadband (Osoro, et al., 2023). It is unclear whether the terrestrial mobile broadband used in this comparison is sufficiently representative of a rural broadband connection or fixed broadband.

The World Bank identified a strong statistical connection between the capacity of the network (the number of users and the amount of data they require) and the level of GHG emissions (World Bank, 2022). Fibre has a high data capacity, but is only one component of a network. There are other critical parts of the network infrastructure such as data centres which drive this trend.

The most efficient data centres and emissions reduction

We have moderate confidence in the evidence that hyperscale and co-located data centres are the most efficient and offer a high potential for reducing emissions.

Data centres and data transmission networks account for approximately 1-1.5% of global electricity use, making them responsible for 1% of energy-related GHG emissions (IEA, 2023). Rapid growth in demand at large data centres has resulted in a substantial increase in energy use in this sector, growing 20-40% annually over the past several years (IEA, 2023). As a result of this, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has given data centres the “More Efforts Needed” rating, which means that data centres need to do more to align to the IEA’s Net zero by 2050 Scenario. Progress is assessed at the global level against the IEA’s net zero by 2050 Scenario Trajectory for 2030 (IEA, n.d.), and recommendations are provided on how they can get “on track” with this pathway. Recent trends on reducing the environmental impacts of data centres have generally been in the right direction to match this trajectory; however, without acceleration it will fall short (IEA, n.d.).

The carbon footprint of a data centre is affected by three factors:

• electricity consumption
• water consumption
• lifetime of the equipment.

When analysing these factors, it can be seen in Table 1 that hyperscale and co-located data centres are far more efficient (including accounting for water consumption) than internal data centres. This is driven by better energy utilisation, more efficient cooling systems and increased workloads per server (Lavi, 2022). As a result, they are less carbon intensive per tonne of GHG emissions per workload than internal data centres.

Table 1 – Impacts of hyperscale, colocation and internal data centres. Adapted from Lavi, 2022.

With Scotland’s electricity maintaining a grid intensity of below 50 grams of CO2e per kilowatt hour delivered across 2017-2020 (Scottish Government, 2023), as opposed to the UK average of 149 grams of CO2e per kilowatt hour delivered in 2023 (National Grid, 2023), the emissions intensity of datacentres in Scotland is likely to be significantly lower.

Summary

Investment in digital connectivity can support emission reductions for those primarily industrial sectors which benefit from efficiency. ICT reliant on digital connectivity is supposed to help meet challenges of emission reduction although there is a lack of evidence for these claims.

Digital technology is a source of emissions in and of itself which tends to be overlooked.

As a result of these, we cannot say for certain whether the indirect effects of digitalisation (e.g., saved emissions from home working, see Section 5.1.3) will reduce overall emissions.

Climate adaptation, just transition and investment in digital connectivity

This section sets out the evidence we have been able to find that meets our criteria. Although just transition and adaptation are important policy areas, the steering group wished to focus primarily on Net zero targets and emissions reduction with this research. The Steering Group also emphasised the need to only include information and projects that were current and operating, not theoretical.

The resulting research has emphasised how these concepts are new and emerging. As novel as the concepts such as just transition and adaptation are, the evidence base is being created. As the situation progresses, more and more evidence will be developed to revise the assertions below.

Digital connectivity and adaptation strategies

With the evidence we have been able to find that meets our criteria, we have low confidence in the evidence that digital technologies, which rely on connectivity, support climate adaptation strategies.

ICT technology is an integral component of many proposed mitigation measures (Dwivedi, et al., 2022), but less so for adaptation. Mitigation is reducing and stabilising levels of GHG emissions; adaptation is adapting to life in a changing climate. It is considered by many that digital connectivity and the ability to communicate and share data will be important for adaptation, especially in rural communities.

The example we have been able to find include the European Commission Farmers Measure Water project, where one farmer described how decisions need to be made quickly: “We need fast internet in rural areas because a lot of farmers and water authorities have to make decisions on an hourly basis. If we take a measurement and only see the results in a week’s time, it is too late: the problem has already occurred. If you have fast internet, you have direct access to your data and can decide on the spot what to do” (European Commission, 2022).

Digital technologies can also support climate-resilient agriculture by helping farmers assess weather forecasts and mitigate impacts on crop yields and productivity (United Nations Development Programme, 2023).

In terms of what the ICT sector itself is doing to adapt to climate change, in 2018 TechUK submitted a report to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) on behalf of the ICT sector outlining how the sector intends to adapt to climate change. Within it, they state that ICT infrastructure including connectivity has unique characteristics that make it more resilient (TechUK, 2018). These include:

• Asset life is relatively short. So more resilient assets can be deployed as part of the normal replacement cycle.
• There is built in redundancy in ICT infrastructures so that if same proportion of ICT assets is damaged or affected by climatic events, there are backups.
• Technology development is fast particularly around threats.

The first two of these are in direct conflict with reducing the direct GHG emissions of ICT and digital connectivity delivery. Programmes that mandate less redundancy or longer asset life may affect the ICT industry’s ability to adapt to climate change. The final point reinforces the ICT sector’s claim that it will innovate out of problems, without evidence to support it.

Digital connectivity and a just transition

With the evidence we have been able to find that meets our criteria, there is moderate evidence that digital connectivity supports a just transition.

There is debate in the literature over whether digital connectivity supports a just transition. Views are largely that it may help when accompanied by strong policy. One study shows that the Just Transition Score may increase as digitalisation increases (Wang, et al., 2022), but this could be a correlation rather than indicating causation. The mechanisms are also little explored: for example, one paper sets out that the digital economy indirectly improves just transition by increasing the level of human capital and financial development (Wang, et al., 2022). There is no further investigation into how this takes place.

There are a few points of information related to how digital connectivity relates to just transition:

• People with low and medium income are more vulnerable to the impacts and costs of economic transitions. Transitions may include job automation, increasing need for access to digital solutions and digital public services, higher energy and food prices, or transport poverty (European Commission, 2022).
• Some articles link which digital solutions can be justice and equity enablers. Examples include
• smart energy management and decentralised and distributed energy production and sale (United Nations Development Programme, 2023)
• an easy-to-use and reliable public transport system that improves mobility for all (United Nations Development Programme, 2023).

This indicates that digitalisation may enhance a just transition.

• Collecting data and use of data is highlighted as important for justice and social good (Friends of Europe, 2021). Many smart solutions require a level of monitoring to maintain the efficiency of the service. Regulation, oversight and controls on appropriate data collection and use will be key. This indicates that policy implemented through digital solutions may become increasingly important in relation to a just transition.
• Across many policies, a just transition is also linked to skills development, with the Climate Change Committee (2023) stating digital skills as a fundamental enabler of net zero. The Welsh Government state the need to “prevent existing labour market inequalities being carried through into the new net zero and digital economies” (Welsh Government, 2022), recognising that employers are actively seeking employees with digital skills.

Summary

The evidence base related to digital connectivity and adaptation in relation to concrete real-world examples is very limited among the literature we have reviewed.

There is no direct evidence to date that investment in digital connectivity supports a just transition, but there are many suggestions for mechanisms by which it might influence a just transition. One of these mechanisms is skills development.

Key mechanisms by which digital connectivity influences emissions reduction

Digital connectivity, primary needs for travel and GHG emissions

We have moderate confidence in the evidence that digital connectivity can reduce primary needs for travel, although we have low confidence to whether this reduces GHG emissions in total.

The assumption that digital can replace physical goods or services completely and therefore avert emissions underpins a great deal of policies supporting digitalisation. It is true digitalisation can substitute certain products or GHG generating activities, such as an e-reader capable of displaying hundreds of books or videoconferencing and telework replacing physical travel. Methodologies to measure the true GHG emissions savings of these substitutes are not rigorous or consistent (Hook, et al., 2020). At the same time, demand for travel is still growing (Itten, et al., 2020; Statista, 2023).

Differences in methodology, scope and assumptions make it difficult to estimate average energy savings of working from home versus working in the office. Rebound effects and home energy use is often overlooked, and where they are included, studies find smaller savings (Harvard Business Review, 2022). Rebound effects include increased non-work travel and more short trips. For example, Harvard Business Review found that a decrease in vehicle miles driven is accompanied by a 26% increase in the number of trips taken (Harvard Business Review, 2022). Trips which would have been taken anyway, such as taking children to school, are also not included.

In the report “Emissions impact of home working in Scotland” concludes that working from home leads to a reduction in commuting and office emissions and an increase in home emissions. How these changes in emission balance out for each individual defines whether their net impact from home working will be positive or negative. The authors state that across their scenarios, the overall impact on emissions will be small (Riley, et al., 2021).

Due to the ambiguities in methodologies, the actual or potential GHG emission reductions of teleworking remain uncertain. Economy-wide savings are likely to be modest (Riley, et al., 2021), and in many circumstances could be negative or non-existent (Hook, et al., 2020).

Public sector digital technology use

We have good confidence in the evidence that the public sector is using technology to solve problems linked to sustainability – but the evidence is not accompanied by reports on the effects of technology use on GHG emissions.

The mechanism of reducing GHG emissions by public sector authorities using digital technology is mainly around energy efficiency. Many documents include a wealth of examples of cities using technology to save energy (European Commission, 2022) – but the GHG emissions associated with implementation or life cycle of this equipment have not been considered.

Main source of emissions from digital connectivity and associated ICT

We have good confidence in the evidence that the largest proportion of emissions from digital connectivity and associated ICT equipment comes from waste management after use.

The ICT sector tends to focus on energy use of their products as the largest influence on the carbon footprint. Therefore, there are calls for energy sources to be decarbonised (Ericsson, n.d.). Independent academic studies are more likely to conclude that the carbon footprint or life cycle emissions of a digital product is dominated by electronic waste or e-waste (Itten, et al., 2020 and Dwivedi, et al., 2022). Figure 5 shows the result of a study into video streaming from device purchase, which identifies that 78% of the GHG emissions are from e-waste (Itten, et al., 2020). This illustrates our claim that the largest proportion of emissions from the use of devices comes from waste management after use (please note, extraction of materials and production was not included in this study, which focused on impacts from consumer behaviour).

Figure 5 – Proportion of GHG emissions from the use case of streaming videos (Itten, et al., 2020).

In its 2020 report on e-waste, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) estimates that 15 million tonnes of CO₂e were averted by the recovery of iron, aluminium, and copper from processed e-waste (International Telecommunications Union, 2020). The ITU report also disclosed that less than 18% of all e-waste can be accounted for, meaning that almost 83% of e-waste is likely not properly disposed of. The sector’s emission reductions may be limited because of the uncertain fate of e-waste.

Human behaviour and digital connectivity

We have good confidence in the evidence that human behaviour plays a role in digital trends, rebound effects, and responsible use of digital connectivity.

Academic papers point out that whilst digital technologies are becoming more efficient individually, the higher demand for computing power, storage capacities, transmitted data and devices per person is systematically compensating for this progress (Aebischer & Hilty, 2015) (Hischier & Wager, 2014). This trend can be partially explained by rebound effects regarding time, volume, weight, and price (Itten, et al., 2020), but also human behaviour. Technology can act as a fashion or wealth statement, with the average person owning more and more connected devices such as smartphones and smart watches. These are often replaced with the latest model far sooner than is required on a technology replacement cycle (Itten, et al., 2020).

Future ICT sector energy consumption reduction

We have moderate confidence in assertions that the ICT sector will continue to innovate to reduce energy consumption.

Deployment of next generation low-power chips and more efficient connectivity technologies (5G and 6G, networks powered by artificial intelligence) is repeatably hailed as the way to reduce the overall footprint of ICT (European Commission, 2022).

Each switch to new standards or technologies requires a massive replacement of equipment. For example, 5G and 6G will require users to replace equipment, due to lack of backwards compatibility of existing smartphones, tablets, and computers. Also, as a growing fraction of products become smart or part of the Internet of Things (IoT), overall resource demand could decrease in theory. In practice, the opposite happens because software-controlled objects are also prone to software-induced obsolescence (Kern et al., 2018; NGI, 2020). While each new model is likely to be more energy efficient than the last, and while smaller smart IoT devices may not consume large amounts of energy in use, 85-95% of their lifecycle energy footprint is created in production. The sheer number and variety make them particularly susceptible to obsolescence once software or hardware support runs out (NGI, 2020).

The fast-evolving nature of digital technologies and the possible sharp increase in digitally enabled services is likely to reinforce the ICT sector’s growing emissions (European Commission, 2023). The European Commission has set out that unless digital technologies are made more energy-efficient, their widespread use will increase energy consumption.

Summary

The key mechanisms that ICT and digitalisation can reduce GHG emissions described by literature include replacing the need to travel, although there is evidence that these savings may not be as high as first thought. The largest source of emissions from ICT equipment is after use, as e-waste, something that changing standards and upgrading systems can increase. Human behaviour plays a role in the resulting emissions from ICT and digitalisation.

Key examples of digital connectivity policies

We studied international policies associated with digital connectivity and decarbonisation, adaptation and just transition in 10 countries, selected based on the methodology in Section 4, to gather important contextual information for Scotland. The degree to which each country links their digital goals and strategy has been given a score, with five representing explicit mention of the GHG or carbon impacts of increased digitalisation, and one representing no mention or linking of decarbonisation within the policy, see Appendix 1 for further detail on the scoring.

Appendix 2: Summary of digital policies across 10 countries provides further detail on individual policies.

Decarbonisation impact of these policies

Policy measures to support emission reductions, adaptation or just transition

Few of the countries we studied for this research have set policy measures designed to support emission reductions, adaptation, or just transition in direct association with digital technologies.

No evidence of impact has been identified during this review. This does not prove a lack of progress or attention. There are other jurisdictions outside the scope of this research which may have evidence of policy impact. An example is the European Union Declaration on Digital Rights and Principles. This promotes digital products and services with a minimum negative impact on the environment and on society, as well as digital technologies that help fight climate change (European Commission, n.d.).

Sustainability considerations of using ICT and digital infrastructure

We have good confidence that European countries are starting to look at the sustainability considerations of using ICT and digital infrastructure.

The European Commission is leading the way in setting net zero or climate neutrality targets for certain elements of ICT infrastructure. In the “Fit for the Digital Age Strategy”, the Commission sets ambitious goals such as the climate neutrality of data centres in the EU by 2030 (European Commission, 2023). Measures to improve the circularity of digital devices and to reduce electronic waste include the Right to Repair Directive (European Commission, 2023) and the recently issued eco-design criteria for mobile phones and tablets (European Commission, 2023). These should have a corresponding positive impact on lifecycle emissions from digital technologies. Efforts are also ongoing to develop low-energy chips under the European Processor Initiative (European Processor Initiative, 2023).

The European Commission is starting to look at policy and governance around ICT direct and indirect emissions: “Until recently, the digital transition progressed with only limited sustainability considerations. To diminish adverse side effects and deliver its full potential for enabling environmental, social, and economic sustainability, the digital transition requires appropriate policy framing and governance” (European Commission, 2022).

“Digitalisation is an excellent lever to accelerate the transition towards a climate-neutral, circular, and more resilient economy. At the same time, we must put the appropriate policy framework in place to avoid adverse effects of digitalisation on the environment.” Svenja Schulze, Federal Minister for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety of Germany (European Council, 2020).

Policy development programmes for datacentre best practice

We have good confidence that countries are starting to drive policy for data centre best practice.

In Estonia, the government has moved to the use of the Estonian Government Cloud (Riigipilv) for ‘Infrastructure, Platform and Software as a Service.’ Analysis of this pointed out that eliminating in-house servers and server rooms, instead relying on cloud services via data centres, offers the biggest potential for reducing emissions (Vihma, 2022). Data centres of the Estonian Government also use the ISO50001 energy management certification.

In Germany^[3], the Government launched the Green IT initiative in 2008 to reduce the energy consumption and GHG emissions of its ICT operations. One objective set for the 2022 to 2027 phase of Green IT initiative includes that ‘main’ data centres (>100kW ICT load) owned by the government should meet the German Federal Government Blue Angel criteria for energy efficient data centres (Blume & Keith, 2023). From the start of the initiative, energy consumption has fallen by 49% from 649.65 GWh in 2008 to 334.54 GWh in 2021. This reduced consumption resulted in budgetary savings of €546 million (Blume & Keith, 2023).

In Denmark, the Agency for Digital Government examined which environmental requirements the public sector can include in tenders for data centres and concluded that the EU’s Green Public Procurement criteria is the most appropriate to use (Agency for Digital Government, n.d.).

In China, the Government has called for an average Power Usage Effectiveness of 1.25 in the east and 1.2 in the west of the country as part of its Eastern Data and Western Computing Project. Major cities now have maximum Power Usage Effectiveness requirements for new data centres, including Beijing (1.4), Shanghai (1.3) and Shenzhen (1.4) (IEA, 2023). Power Usage Effectiveness is the metric used to determine the energy efficiency of a data centre.

The private sector is also taking action to reduce the environmental impacts. In January 2021, date centre operators and industry association in Europe launched the Climate Neutral Data Centre Pact, pledging to make data centres climate-neutral by 2030 with intermediate (2025) targets for PUE and carbon-free energy (IEA, 2023).

Baseline assessments and monitoring

We have good confidence that there is no current framework for baseline assessment or monitoring of the environmental impact of increased digitalisation which also considers the indirect benefits and potential rebound effects.

There is a need to develop consistent metrics to measure the impact of technology on the environment (United Nations Environment Programme, 2021).

The European Commission identifies a need for a science-based assessment methodology on the ‘net environmental impact’ of increased digitalisation that consider both the benefits and the possible rebound effects (European Commission, 2022). The Commission has therefore launched dedicated research and innovation initiatives, saying that it will launch a project under Horizon Europe, to develop a methodology and common indicators for measuring the footprint of ICT (European Commission, 2023). In the UK, Building Digital UK also recognises this as a gap and will be reporting on environmental benefits of their interventions (Building Digital UK, 2023). Similarly, EU Member States are collaborating on the Toulouse call for a Green and Digital Transition in the EU. This looks to monitor the impact of digitalisation on the environment and contribute to the development of measurement tools (Presidence Francaise, 2022).

While the framework does not exist to quantify the full scope of direct and indirect effects, a number of standards exist for some elements.

Global standards to support carbon accounting in the ICT sector

There are global standards that can support carbon accounting (the method used to calculate a carbon footprint) in the ICT sector.

The main ones recognised and accepted by ICT bodies are:

• Greenhouse Gas Protocol ICT Sector Guidance. This builds on the internationally accepted GHG Protocol Product Life Cycle Accounting and Reporting Standard (GeSI and Carbon Trust, 2017).
• Recommendation ITU-T L.1470 (01/2020) (International Telecommunications Union, 2020).
• “Guidance for ICT companies setting science-based targets.” (Science Based Targets Initiative, 2022).

In summary

Our literature review has found no good examples of international experience of applying standard carbon accounting in the ICT sector, and this gap is recognised at the European Union level. Standards exist at the corporate or product level which could be adapted.

Conclusions

This work is the start of a process. As a rapid review, we were able to quickly identify information which fit our criteria, but there may be areas we have missed. Digital connectivity infrastructure and ICT are highly interconnected and overlapping with our behaviours and geography, and so this exercise has also highlighted we are having to pull together disparate pieces of information, research and case studies to try to come to conclusions. A key challenge is in understanding the “net” picture – there are disparate sources citing the means by which digital connectivity can impact on emissions, but it is not possible to combine this evidence to form a complete picture.

We were asked to research five key questions and found the following answers:

• To what extent is there evidence that investment in digital connectivity can support emissions reduction, climate adaptation and a just transition?

We have found mixed evidence of the decarbonisation impact, adaptation and just transition of digital connectivity. The sector produces direct emissions from energy consumption and generation of e-waste. This is despite the possibility that it can reduce indirect emissions through increasing efficiency and behaviour changes such as reduced travel linked to working from home. Studies point out a need for a holistic approach in calculating GHG emissions of the ICT sector, including rebound effects and emissions from the end-of-life. This would ensure indirect emissions and emissions from end-of-life are fully accounted for.

Investment in digital connectivity can support emissions reduction for those primarily industrial sectors that benefit most from efficiency. ICT technology and digitalisation can and does reduce GHG emissions in other industries. Heavy industry and the energy sector would benefit the most from digitalisation. ICT reliant on connectivity is supposed to help meet challenges of emissions reduction although there is a lack of evidence for these claims.

The ICT sector is a source of GHG emissions, which tends to be overlooked. It is our view that the reduction in indirect GHG emissions (largely driven by digitalising and making other sectors more efficient) does not negate the need to reduce the ICT sector’s direct impacts from energy consumption and generation of e-waste.

While the ICT sector focuses on the emissions associated with energy use, which is not insignificant, we have good confidence that the GHG emissions associated with e-waste are of growing concern internationally in terms of reaching climate goals. It is uncertain whether ICT’s GHG emissions reduction potential in other sectors can actually outweigh its direct emissions. It gives us only moderate confidence that the ICT sector can help reduce more emissions than are inherent in the manufacture, use and disposal of the equipment used to achieve those savings.

There is a great deal of speculation that digital technologies have the potential to aid adaptation to climate challenges, especially in rural areas, though with few concrete examples. While there is no direct evidence that investment in digital connectivity supports a just transition, there are many suggestions for mechanisms by which it might influence a just transition. One of these mechanisms is skills development, which is also recognised as a key enabler for net zero. Digital connectivity and ICT are capable of doing both good and bad, either addressing or exacerbating existing inequalities, as well as questions around access to connectivity and skills. Studies repeat the need for strong policy in this area.

• If so, what are the key mechanisms by which this could occur (for example, reduction in travel, investment in green data centres or other mechanisms suggested in the evidence)?

The key mechanisms by which ICT and digitalisation can reduce GHG emissions, as described by literature, include replacing the need to travel, although there is evidence that these savings may not be as high as first thought. The largest source of emissions from ICT equipment is e-waste, which changing standards and upgrading systems can increase. Human behaviour plays a role, either positive or negative, in the emissions from ICT and digitalisation.

• What are key examples of existing policies (in Scotland, such as in local authorities, the UK and/or international examples from comparable countries) designed to support emission reductions, adaptation and/ or just transition through digital connectivity? Is there any evidence for the impact of such policies?

No evidence of impact has been identified during this review. Many of the countries analogous to Scotland have policy that mentioned digitalisation as an enabler or essential piece of their decarbonisation, climate change or net zero agenda. None of them were accompanied by evidence of impact of their policies. This does not prove a lack of progress or attention. There are other countries outside the scope of this research that may have evidence of policy impact.

• What are the different options suggested within the literature for Scotland to provide a baseline assessment of, and monitor carbon emissions from digital infrastructure, technologies, and associated activities?

There are no good examples of what other countries are doing, and this gap is recognised at the European Union level. Standards exist at the corporate or product level, which could be adapted.

• What are the other key gaps in existing knowledge where further research is required to support digital connectivity and Scotland’s climate change goals?

Gaps include a need for a baseline assessment methodology, direct studies exploring the questions asked in this research and a consistent methodology for calculating direct and indirect emissions from ICT and digitalisation.

Gaps identified by this research

We have used specific search criteria and search words and applied them in google and google scholar. On basis of this search, we have found the following evidence gaps:

• There is no active study that has been found within this review that investigates whether investment in digital connectivity directly results in GHG emissions reduction.

There are varying approaches to quantifying direct and indirect emissions of ICT, with no academic or sector wide consensus.

There are different approaches and methodologies for calculating and comparing the GHG emissions of digital and non-digital practices and solutions, for example online versus in-person events. As an example, (Hook, et al., 2020) outlines that working from home evaluations should encompass the following:

• energy footprint
• transportation footprint
• technology footprint
• waste footprint.

The evidence we have found to investigate whether digital connectivity contributes to a just transition and the key mechanisms by which this occurs is not conclusive or good quality.

The ICT sector and literature focus on emissions reduction, with climate adaptation either an afterthought or future looking, with few real-world examples.

Case studies of digital technologies saving money, power or water in municipalities focus on the GHG emissions reduced or averted, with no acknowledgment of rebound effects, which literature states is important.

The GHG emissions associated with the collection and use of data, which is deemed to be necessary to digitalisation, are opaque and limited to specific studies on data centres. For example, the full lifecycle of the Internet of Things is not explored in the literature.

Lack of evidence of policy to address GHG emissions of e-waste e.g. from refrigerants leaking GHG.

Lack of evidence of policy to address the embedded GHG emissions from extraction of raw materials and production of the ICT equipment.

Lack of best practice for measuring, monitoring and assessing the GHG footprint of electronic communications services. The European Commission is also looking to develop this in a Horizon Europe project.

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Appendix 1: Detailed methodology and approach to the research

This Annex details the methodologies developed and used to complete this research project.

Definitions

The scope of this project defines ‘climate change’ as including Scotland’s interim and 2045 Net zero and emissions reduction targets. Although just transition and adaptation are important policy areas, the steering group wished to focus primarily on Net zero targets and emissions reduction with this research. The Steering Group also emphasised the need to only include information and projects that were current and operating, not theoretical.

By ‘digital connectivity’, we include the following:

Infrastructure

• fixed broadband (including subsea fibre, trunk or backhaul fibre, and access fibre)
• mobile connectivity (including 4G and 5G macro and 5G small cells)
• Datacentres Application, use and behaviours.
• existing applications such as artificial intelligence (AI) and Internet of Things (IoT)
• data-driven products and services
• practices such as working from home that are enabled by digital connectivity.

Geographical scope

• in Scotland and/or serves Scotland
• where there is applicable learning for Scotland.

Key dependencies

• digital skills
• renewable energy

These are all encompassed in our Figure 1 – The landscape of digital connectivity defined as within scope of this research. on page 14 of this report.

Literature review

Search terms

The search terms we used were agreed by the Steering Group on 24^th October 2023, these are set out below under the subheadings of Infrastructure, Application, use and behaviour, Geographical scope, and Key dependencies. We used Google and Google Scholar search engines.

Infrastructure:

• Digital connectivity infrastructure strategy
• Digital connectivity infrastructure policy
• Digital connectivity and climate change
• Digital transformation
• Broadband strategy
• Broadband policy
• Mobile network strategy
• Mobile network policy
• 5G strategy
• 5G policy
• Remote digital connectivity
• Rural digital connectivity
• Digital connectivity national plan
• Digital connectivity policy
• Economy strategy + datacentres (looking for links to environmental topics)
• Datacentres as opportunities for economic growth (looking for links to environmental topics)
• National Data Strategy (looking for links to environmental topics)
• Security of data infrastructure (looking for links to environmental topics)
• Resilience of data infrastructure (looking for links to environmental topics)
• Net zero digital connectivity infrastructure
• Net zero broadband infrastructure
• Net zero mobile network infrastructure
• Net zero datacentres
• Green digital connectivity infrastructure
• Green broadband infrastructure
• Green mobile network infrastructure
• Green datacentres
• ‘distribution’, ‘fairness’, ‘equality’ or ‘just transition’ of digital connectivity infrastructure
• ‘distribution’, ‘fairness’, ‘equality’ or ‘just transition’ of broadband infrastructure
• ‘distribution’, ‘fairness’, ‘equality’ or ‘just transition’ of mobile network infrastructure
• ‘distribution’, ‘fairness’, ‘equality’ or ‘just transition’ of datacentres
• Environmental impacts of digital connectivity infrastructure
• Environmental impacts of broadband infrastructure
• Environmental impacts of mobile network infrastructure
• Environmental impacts of datacentres
• Environmental footprint of digital connectivity infrastructure
• Environmental footprint of digital networks
• Sustainable digital infrastructure
• Sustainable broadband
• Digital carbon footprint
• Carbon emissions of datacentres
• Carbon emissions of digital connectivity infrastructure
• Carbon emissions of home working
• Environmental payback of digital connectivity infrastructure
• Environmental payback of broadband infrastructure
• Environmental payback of mobile network infrastructure
• Environmental payback of datacentres
• Life cycle assessment of working from home.
• Defra carbon factors for working from home.
• Life cycle assessment of broadband
• Life cycle assessment of mobile phones / mobile network infrastructure
• Life cycle assessment of datacentres
• Energy intensity of digital connectivity infrastructure
• Energy intensity of broadband infrastructure
• Energy intensity of mobile network infrastructure
• Energy intensity of datacentres
• Environmental sustainability of digital connectivity infrastructure
• Environmental sustainability of broadband infrastructure
• Environmental sustainability of mobile phones / mobile network infrastructure
• Environmental sustainability of datacentres.

Application, use and behaviours

• AI strategy
• Internet of Things (usually in the digital strategy and linked to Environmental departments of councils, waste etc).
• Working from home strategies across business groups and government.

Geographical Scope:

• The analysis of policies was focused on:
• Scotland
• Finland,
• Wales,
• Portugal,
• Norway,
• Sweden,
• Estonia,
• Canada (Ontario),
• New Zealand,
• Denmark and
• Iceland

These jurisdictions have topological and population density scale comparisons with Scotland and are likely to face similar digital connectivity issues (land mass, areas of low population density, rural communities).

Some further findings on China were identified as part of the research and included in the report.

Key dependencies

Key dependencies were discussed as part of the scoping analysis as follows:

• Digital skills strategies – from school age to beyond in target countries
• Government skills strategies
• Government “digital transformation” strategies – usually local government
• Digital inclusion strategies
• Renewable energy strategy (to see if there’s a link to digital)
• National Grid and Distribution Network Operators / Distribution System Operator and their requirements for digital connectivity (fixed and mobile)

Methodology for policy review

We undertook a desk review of existing policies from countries within our scope. We looked for whether their policies were designed to support emission reductions, adaptation or just transition through digital connectivity. Section 7 presents our results and uses a score to rate the extent that digital connectivity and emissions reduction is linked within a country’s policy, with five being explicit mention of the GHG or carbon impacts of increased digitalisation and one being no mention or linking of decarbonisation within the policy.

Table 3 – Key of star ratings used to assess country policies and their link between digital connectivity and emissions reduction.

Assessment of confidence

Following a methodology developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the fifth assessment report and used for the sixth for the consistent treatment of uncertainties, we developed a confidence level based on the extent of agreement in the literature and the robustness of evidence. Figure 3 on page 15 sets out what constitutes low, moderate, and good confidence in our claims.

• Low agreement is where sources conflict.
• Medium agreement is where sources make broadly similar conclusions but the data or evidence they use to support their conclusions is very different.
• High agreement is where sources independently make similar conclusions and underlying data are similar despite being independent.
• Limited evidence is some evidence available but largely anecdotal and not from recognised peer reviewed sources. Availability of data was low.
• Medium evidence is information from peer reviewed sources or official sources.
• Robust evidence is a greater volume of information from peer reviewed sources and official sources.

Appendix 2: Summary of digital policies across 10 countries.

A summary of digital policies and their links with decarbonisation, across 10 countries selected based on the methodology in Section 4. The degree to which each country links their digital goals and strategy has been given a score, with five representing explicit mention of the GHG or carbon impacts of increased digitalisation, and one representing no mention or linking of decarbonisation within the policy.

The policies from the individual countries are presented in Appendix 2: Summary of digital policies across 10 countries.

Some policies explicitly mentioned a just transition, and reference to adaptation was not found in any of the policies we were able to identify. See Section 7.2.3 for specific comment on data centre related policy.

Finland

Score: five – digitalisation and decarbonisation linked heavily, and mentions of wider collaboration with other decarbonisation initiatives as well as of the GHG or carbon impacts of increased digitalisation.

Finnish policy does connect increased digitalisation with helping the green transition, but there is no explicit mention of the carbon impact of increased digitalisation on the environment.

The Finnish Government: Digital Compass was drawn up for the purpose of managing the development of the digital transformation in Finland. Based on European values and the Digital Decade 2030 programme. Promotes an economically, socially and ecologically sustainable digital green transition (Finnish Government, 2022).

Objective 9 of the Digital Compass states that Finland develops and applies digital technologies that respond to global climate and environmental challenges (European Union Digital Skills and Jobs Platform, 2023).

Ministry of Finance Finland: Sustainable Growth Programme for Finland aims to support growth that is ecologically, socially and economically sustainable in line with the aims of the Govt Programme. Funding will come mainly from EU Recovery Plan ‘Next Generation EU’ – one of four key elements ‘Digitalisation and a digital economy will strengthen productivity and make services available to all’ (Ministry of Finance Finland, n.d.)

Portugal

Score: two – minor mention of decarbonisation in the digital connectivity policy.

Portugal says digitalisation will contribute to decarbonisation.

Portugal’s Action Plan for Digital Transition (Measure 9) speaks to increased digitalisation of public services, which it reports will contribute to decarbonisation and environmental benefits. (Portugal Digital, 2020)

Portuguese Secretary of State for the Digital Transition has partnered with Digital With Purpose (2020 onwards) to acknowledge and deliver digital sustainability. (Global Enabling Sustainability Initiative, 2020)

Norway

Score: two – minor mention of decarbonisation in the digital connectivity policy.

Norwegian policy connects increased digitalisation with aiding the green transition.

The Norwegian Ministry for Foreign Affairs, Digitalisation for Development, Digital Strategy for Norwegian Digital Policy acknowledges climate change as an important priority but doesn’t directly acknowledge the climate impacts of ICT (Norwegian Minstry of Foreign Affairs, n.d.).

The Norway-EU Green Alliance acknowledges that digital transition is important for and contributes to the green transition (Norway and European Union, n.d.).

Sweden

Score: four – digitalisation and decarbonisation linked heavily, and mentions of wider collaboration with other decarbonisation initiatives.

Swedish policy links the use of ICT to decarbonisation effects, as well as acknowledging decarbonisation, circularity, conscious choices, and the energy transition as drivers for a sustainable world.

The Swedish Government’s ICT for a Greener Administration report outlined the importance of acquisition and public procurement, use of ICT in government agencies and digital tools to reduce business travel (OECD, 2018).

The focus of the Swedish Information Society policy is, among other things, to use ICT to promote sustainable growth (Regeringskansliet, 2010).

Estonia

Score: five – digitalisation and decarbonisation linked heavily, and mentions of wider collaboration with other decarbonisation initiatives as well as of the GHG or carbon impacts of increased digitalisation.

Estonian policy contains a clear and explicit mention of the carbon effects of increased digital footprints, and provides a commitment to reduce the effects.

The Estonian Digital Agenda 2030 stresses the activities of the Estonian development plan contribute through the use of innovative technologies and environmentally friendly solutions to reduce the impact of climate change. They are also meant to reduce the time required for covering distances and ensure a good living environment all across Estonia.

The Estonian government also has Green Digital Government Commitments, stating “we analyse the environmental impact of the Estonian digital government and ways to reduce it” (European Union Digital Skills and Jobs Platform, 2023).

Canada (Ontario)

Score: one – no mention of decarbonisation within digital connectivity policy.

Canadian policy contains no mention of the carbon or environmental impact of increased digitalisation.

Canada’s Digital Ambition 2022 mentions at a high level that their Digital Ambition aligns with the Greening Government Strategy – but delivery on specific plans is unclear from published policy and strategy (Government of Canada, 2022).

The Building a Digital Ontario – Ontario’s Digital Strategy does not mention environmental protection or any digital sector emissions (Ontario, n.d.).

The Ontario Onwards Action plan mentions the importance of environmental protection, but does not specifically link environmental protection with digital and sustainability.

“The Government of Canada’s Digital Ambition goes hand in hand with the Greening Government Strategy, which seeks to make Government of Canada’s operations low carbon through green procurement and clean technologies. Through the increased promotion of environmental sustainability, and by integrating environmental considerations in its procurement process, the federal government is in a position to influence the demand for environmentally preferable goods and services” (Ontario, 2020).

New Zealand

Score: one – no mention of decarbonisation within digital connectivity policy.

New Zealand policy does not explicitly mention the carbon or environmental impacts of increased digitalisation.

The Digital Strategy for Aotearoa proclaims: “we use data and digital technology to address big issues of our time like climate change. We also want the tech sector to play a key role in creating a more equitable, low-carbon future.” (Digital.Govt.NZ, n.d.)

However sustainable delivery or green ICT is not noted in any of the flagship initiatives of the Action Plan for the Digital Strategy for Aotearoa (Digital.Govt.NZ, 2022).

Denmark

Score: four – digitalisation and decarbonisation linked heavily, and mentions of wider collaboration with other decarbonisation initiatives.

Danish policy takes a holistic approach to digitalisation and digital section emissions, with direct considerations for green ICT acquisition and support for the EU’s Green Public Procurement criteria.

The Danish Ministry of Finance’s National Strategy for Digitalization focuses on digital as an enabler and doesn’t consider the impact of digital emissions (The Danish Government, 2022).

The “Visions and Recommendations for Denmark as a Digital Pioneer” document focusses on digitising energy and utility data as a prerequisite to understand the impact of increased digital connectivity. Heavier focus on using digital to achieve green transition (Digitalserings Partnerskabet, 2021).

The Agency for Digital Government – Digital Green Transition lays out plans for the EU’s Green Public Procurement criteria to have been tested throughout 2022 and 2023 (Agency for Digital Government, n.d.).

The Study on the Digital Green Transition in the Nordic-Baltic Countries does not explicitly mention the quantification of spend vs emissions (Agency for Digital Government, n.d.).

Iceland

Score: three – digitalisation recognised or reported as a contributor to green transition, but no mention of the GHG impacts of digitalisation.

Icelandic policy nods to sustainable procurement as a lever for green digitalisation, but provides no quantification.

The Digital Green Transition – Government of Iceland sets out the Icelandic ambition to leverage digital effects to achieve and accelerate the green transition (Nordic Council of Ministers, n.d.) (Government of Iceland, 2021) (Stjornarrad islands, 2023)

Wales

Score: four – digitalisation and decarbonisation linked heavily, and mentions of wider collaboration with other decarbonisation initiatives.

It is recognised that digitalisation will play a role in the transition to net zero in the Decarbonising Wales with digital technology website.

The policy for Wales also mentions a just transition and how skills are central to that (Centre for Digital Public Services, 2022).

Tech Net Zero discovery investigated greener government and third sector tech report came up with 6 recommendations of how public services could use digital technologies to reach net zero, one of which was to measure the carbon footprint of a digital service (Centre for Digital Public Services, 2022).

© Published by Frazer-Nash Consultancy, 2024 on behalf of ClimateXChange. All rights reserved.

While every effort is made to ensure the information in this report is accurate, no legal responsibility is accepted for any errors, omissions or misleading statements. The views expressed represent those of the author(s), and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

1. 
   

   Double Diamond Model: what is it? – Justinmind ↑

   
   
2. 
   

   Using the supply, use and input-output tables and 2019 data coupled with the Greenhouse Gas Effects 2024-2025 (Scottish Government, 2023) and includes the direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the following sectors: Computers, electronics and opticals; Telecommunications; Computer services; and Information services. ↑

   
   
3. 
   

   Whilst undertaking the research to support this statement we have identified additional information, beyond the scope of our initial research, for Germany and China. ↑

   
   

December 2023

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7488/era/4512

Executive summary

Background

Scotland recognises the significance of a place-based transition to net zero greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). As part of setting a target of net zero by 2045, the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 places importance on the role of local authorities in achieving this target. Therefore, it is a priority for the Scottish Government to facilitate area-wide and locally-led efforts as part of a just transition to net zero.

Across the 32 local authorities in Scotland, 17 have set net zero targets specific to tackling territorial GHG emissions generated in their geographical area (from agriculture, buildings, industry, land use and land use change and forestry, transport and waste). This is in direct comparison to 26 local authorities that have set net zero targets to reduce their organisational GHG emissions.

This research examines local authority climate-relevant strategies and policies within them; the potential of these policies to reduce emissions if they were scaled to the national level; and the barriers that local authorities face in implementing these policies.

Main findings

We developed a register of 69 climate change strategies across all 32 local authorities. We found that local authorities are modelling exemplary action on climate change across many fronts through the benefit of deep-rooted relationships with local stakeholders and unparalleled knowledge of their area.

However, the level of detail and methodological evidence presented in climate change strategies are often sparse, with many strategies failing to model the scale of impact on GHG emissions.

From the 69 climate-related strategies, we selected six leading strategies for quantification and identified 13 policies within these that could be appropriate for scaling up. We undertook an initial estimate of the potential territorial emission reduction if they were replicated across all Scottish local authorities. We also assessed the likelihood for change at this scale, considering local authorities’ sphere of control, capacity and timescales, alongside the magnitude of potential change. Through this process we identified two policy areas with the potential for major impact on territorial greenhouse gas emissions:

1. Nature-based solutions: a combination of individual policies to green derelict land, restore damaged peatland and afforestation.
2. Net zero transport: several climate policy initiatives such as active transport, decarbonisation of public transport and low-emission vehicle licences for taxis.

The impact on Scotland’s national territorial emissions, should all local authorities adopt the leading policies, from nature-based solutions (5,497 ktCO₂e) and net zero transport (1,527 ktCO₂e) amounts to an estimated total potential reduction of 7,024 ktCO₂e by 2045. This is an indicative figure, illustrating the scale of change that could be possible.

We found that the Scottish Government have set a compelling ambition to closely support local authorities to develop locally owned and led climate action strategies to tackle territorial emissions.

However, we also found that local authorities are limited by a lack of clarity on their roles and responsibilities, and by a lack of best practice guidance or frameworks across all the territorial emission categories. They face barriers including lack of data maturity, capacity, specialist skills, accountability and funding.

Recommendations

Local authorities could be further supported to develop their climate policies. We recommend the establishment of best practice guidance on the development of climate policies. This would help improve clarity and consistency across local authorities.

Further research could expand on the capacity and capability requirements to deliver local authority climate policies between now and 2045, including methods by which the resourcing needs could be met. Further investigation could help quantify the funding available for tackling each GHG inventory, where further funding might best be directed and methods for administrating funding to ensure that national ambitions can be met.

Glossary and abbreviations

Introduction

Context

The recent parliamentary inquiry into the role of local government in delivering net zero stressed that it will be impossible for Scotland to reach net zero without local leadership spearheading area-wide decarbonisation efforts (Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee, 2023). The inquiry recognised that achieving net zero cannot be dictated. It requires a collective effort between local government, which holds the local knowledge and fruitful partnerships across the public and private sectors, and national government which have the strategic capabilities and resources to support and coordinate local efforts.

The Scottish Government is continuing the drive toward empowering, building capacity, and providing the necessary foundations for local government to build their net zero programmes. The parliamentary inquiry also established that, while councils have at times been a model for net zero leadership, this needs to be rapidly scaled across all local authorities and all emission sectors in each local authority. The inquiry report noted that the Scottish Government must facilitate this scaling by providing local authorities with a comprehensive roadmap for net zero and “far more certainty than they have at present about the roles they are to play” (Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee, 2023).

The Duties of Public Bodies: Reporting Requirements Order placed responsibilities on all public bodies, including local authorities, to report on scope 1 and 2 (and some scope 3) organisational emissions (Climate Change Order, 2015). As a result, all 32 local authorities have developed organisational emission inventories and in 2022 the Accounts Commission reported that 26 local authorities had developed organisational net zero targets (Audit Scotland, 2022). However, local authorities have some influence on certain emissions reduction beyond their organisational boundaries. These emissions produced within a local authority’s geographical area of responsibility are referred to as ‘territorial emissions’. Only 17 local authorities have developed territorial net zero targets and even fewer have developed policies for reducing territorial emissions. If this situation persists, it will present a major barrier to the success of Scotland’s national Climate Change Plan, which is heavily reliant on place-based and locally-led action (Scottish Government, 2020).

In their recent progress update to parliament, the Climate Change Committee noted that “momentum on a local level is increasing, but local action is uncoordinated” (Climate Change Committee, 2022, p. 53). There are pockets of exemplary action but also a lack of knowledge sharing across local authorities. This has led to policies being rolled out with different timescales, best practice not being disseminated and opportunities being missed to drive coordinated action across all local authorities. In November 2023 the Scottish Government launched a new Scottish Climate Intelligence Service to support local authorities to build capacity and capability for the development of area-wide programmes of emissions reduction for the benefit of their communities. This service will enable local authorities to deliver their own area-wide territorial net zero targets and to contribute to Scotland’s national commitment to net zero by 2045 (Improvement Service, 2023).

This research addresses some of the identified challenges by analysing the climate policies local authorities have developed to directly tackle territorial GHG emissions, and mapping their potential impact on territorial GHG emissions.

Project aims and research questions

The first aim of this project was to identify key GHG emission reduction policies developed by Scottish local authorities. We developed a comprehensive register of local authority climate-related strategies and associated policies and described the current action being taken by each local authority across all emission categories.

The second aim was to compile and undertake an initial estimate of the policies’ GHG emission reduction potential at both the local authority and national level. This aim was broken down into three sub-questions. Firstly, to identify what the key policies are that have significant GHG emission reduction potential. Secondly, to estimate their emissions reduction potential within their respective local authorities. Thirdly, to estimate what the emission reduction potential would be, should they be applied across all Scottish local authorities. This type of analysis has previously been conducted by the Edinburgh Climate Commission and Place-based Climate Action Network, although this was only in relation to policy scenarios at the local level (Williamson, et al., 2020).

The third aim was to engage with local authorities through a series of semi-structured interviews to understand how the most significant policies could be implemented across Scotland, including the role of Scottish Government and other public bodies in enabling this.

Overall, this project highlights area-based policy options for Scottish Government to consider for national deployment, whether as a statutory instrument, as in the case of Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategies (LHEES), or via other delivery approaches such as frameworks or guidance.

Defining the greenhouse gas emission inventory

The UK greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI) is published annually by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) and sets out the latest estimates in territorial GHG emissions for all 374 local authorities across the United Kingdom, including the 32 local authorities across Scotland. We have charted the latest DESNZ territorial GHGI publication data for Scotland (DESNZ, 2023) in Figure 1 below. This shows the total territorial GHG emissions split into the inventory categories (agriculture, buildings, industry, LULUCF, transport and waste) between 2005 and 2021. The dataset employs several different methodologies to calculate the spatially disaggregated emissions for each inventory category.

Table 1 provides a description of each of the GHGI categories. These are important for drawing boundaries around polices, determining which inventory a specific policy will impact.

It is possible for policies to transcend multiple emission inventories. For example, a policy that seeks to develop a green network to increase the level of active transport^[1] by improving tree canopy coverage and hedgerows would impact a transport and LULUCF inventory. There are activities and emission changes that would impact both inventories in this instance.

Methodology

This section provides a summarised version of the research methodology. A more detailed methodology is available in Appendix 13.1.

A steering group was established to support the delivery of the project, and consisted of representatives from the Scottish Government, ClimateXChange, Sustainable Scotland Network (SSN), and the Turner & Townsend research team. Findings and outcomes were reported to the steering group for comments and to confirm the research direction throughout the project. The project was divided into three tasks.

Evidence review

Task 1 was to compile a comprehensive policy register to understand the current climate action being taken by each local authority. This register provides a useful tool to view and analyse individual climate policies across Scotland. We applied the following process:

• Search: our search began with reviewing information available through the “Wider Influence” tab of local authority climate change submissions to SSN (SSN, 2023b). Where gaps existed, we supplemented these by conducting an online search of local authority websites and other public body sources for the relevant policy documentation.
• Classify: we utilised a rapid evidence assessment (HM Treasury, 2020) to classify each policy based on its high-level data, including years of coverage, policy owner, whether the policy is monitored, and any associated targets.
• Select: we developed screening criteria based on Scottish Government priorities for the current project and used this to recommend six strategies of significance to progress to Task 2.

We presented the key findings to the steering group and our assessment of the selected strategies. We asked the steering group for advice on the selection of the six strategies. This resulted in the addition of geographical criteria to our selection assessment, to ensure the research considered local authorities from rural and island communities.

Quantitative research

For Task 2 we developed a GHG profile for each of the six strategies selected from Task 1. This involved identifying the emission boundary of each policy within the strategies and the quantification of the potential impact on territorial emissions of the respective local authority. We then proceeded to calculate an aggregated figure to estimate the policies’ potential impact if rolled out at the national level. We approached this by:

• Assessment boundary: GHG boundaries were established using GHG Protocol Action Standard (Greenhouse Gas Protocol, 2014) to apportion the relevant sinks and sources to each policy and estimate potential emission impacts. This was used to determine the likelihood and magnitude of change.
• Policy scenario emissions: in the first instance, we used existing activity and emission factor information from the local authority policies to develop policy scenario emissions estimates. In the absence of information, we applied Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidance. We then used the HM Treasury Green Book to approximate changes and associated emissions values to provide national-level policy scenario figures.

The more comprehensive methodology in Appendix 13.1 explains in detail the range of approaches and methodologies applied in the assessment of GHG boundaries, development of the policy scenario emissions estimations and the limitations of this approach. The findings from Task 2 were presented to the steering group with the objective of selecting two of the most likely and impactful areas of policy to be considered for national deployment by local authorities. These were developed into policy briefings for Scottish Government.

Qualitative research

For Task 3 we conducted interviews with representatives from two local authorities to gain their views on wider implementation of the selected policy areas, including the roles of local authorities, Scottish Government and other public bodies. We planned a third interview with one further local authority however, we were not able to agree a time and date for the interview to take place in the timescales of this research.

A topic guide was developed and formed the basis of 45-minute semi-structured interviews on Microsoft Teams. These aimed to collect the comprehensive views on the likelihood of wider adoption of the policies, including practicability, the capacity and capability required to deliver a new policy. We also included other open-ended questions, encouraging participants to expand further on topics they deemed relevant. The data from interviews was collated in a thematic analysis grid and key themes were extracted using an analytical approach guided by participant views.

We combined the data from all sources (the evidence review, quantitative potential emissions modelling, discussions with the steering group, and the qualitative research) to discuss the key challenges and the possible approaches to adopting the climate policies at a national scale. The conclusion is presented in Section 11.

Review of existing evidence

Overview

The aim of this review was to understand the climate strategy and policy landscape across Scottish local authorities. We created a Climate Strategy Register that involved the collation of climate action plans from all 32 local authorities including individual sector strategies such as transport plans, waste plans and local development plans (Appendix 13.3).

This report makes a distinction between a climate strategy and a climate policy in the context of the documents reviewed. Policies feed into sector strategies, which feed into a climate change strategy.

Most local authorities reviewed already have a top-level document we define as a climate change strategy. A climate change strategy refers to several planned actions and policies designed to outline an organisation’s approach to tackling climate-related challenges in their local region. Climate change strategies encompass other nomenclature such as a ‘climate action plan’. A climate change strategy will typically cover ambitions for all GHG emission inventories and may link to separate sector strategies that set out in further detailed policies specific to a singular emission inventory. For example, a climate change strategy might reference a separate transport emission sector strategy.

A climate policy encompasses an individual action or set of actions that deliver ambitions set out by a climate strategy. Policies will typically include setting of targets and key performance indicators to measure and verify the success of the policy’s intended impact. For example, a transport sector strategy might include a policy to increase electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and a policy to implement a low emission zone (LEZ) in a city centre.

We used several sources of information to inform our review of existing evidence. We started with reviewing the “Wider influences” local authority climate change report submissions to SSN (SSN, 2023b). The wider influences section of SSN reports was completed with varying degrees of information but overall, the level of detail was sparse. We supplemented this gap by searching each of the local authority websites for their climate action strategies. We found various types of initiatives at different levels of hierarchy.

We identified 69 strategies relevant to climate change across the 32 local authorities. We developed short summaries of each strategy document, which are set out in Appendix 13.2.

We developed a screening matrix to rank each of the strategies against five criteria outlined in Table 2 and determined the level of maturity by assessing the level of evidence provided in a climate change strategy as yes / no / partial. Each of the strategies was then assigned a relevance score to identify those that closely aligned with the research objectives.

Although some strategies where much more detailed than others in terms of the detail provided against individual policies, all the strategies provided sufficient information for us to understand how they would lead to an impact of the GHG emissions in their area. However, quantified information about the level of impact a strategy had was often high-level, not valued as an impact on territorial GHG emissions, or left as an open ambition.^[2]

Selected local authority strategies

From the existing evidence review, we identified five climate change strategies that scored well across all of the screening categories. These climate change strategies were discussed with the steering group and we identified that all of the selected climate change strategies were across the central belt of the country. We therefore added a sixth strategy from a more rural local authority to ensure that we had a more diverse geographical spread. The six climate strategies matching the criteria were taken forward to the next task of valuating climate policies. The local authorities selected are shown in Figure 3 below.

In the following paragraphs, we present two example climate change strategies as representative of the strategies we reviewed.

Stirling’s Climate and Nature Emergency Plan was the highest-ranking strategy (table 3) we reviewed. This was due to the large array of topics covered, efficient writing style, the explanation of policies and how those could be translated into other local authorities and regions. It provided several emission impact figures for policies and actions to show the effect on the environment and highlighted how these would be resourced in the region. Stirling’s Climate and Nature Emergency Plan was also one of the few climate change strategies to mention their current territorial emissions, which is the key focus of this project. Mention of territorial emissions is usually a strong indicator that a climate change strategy would give thorough information around carbon impacts and implementation. Stirling’s Climate and Nature Emergency Plan estimated a territorial emission reduction of 1/3 between 2005 and 2018 and mapped out their future to show where the local authority wanted to be by 2030. This was one of many examples from Stirling’s Climate and Nature Emergency Plan that set it apart from other climate change strategies and provided a clear understanding of how the local authority wanted to meet their targets for territorial GHG emissions.

The Glasgow Climate Plan (Glasgow City Council, 2022) and Stirling Climate and Nature Emergency Plan (Stirling Council, 2022) were key examples of detailed climate change strategies that could be deployed to support a national transition to net zero. Both strategies gave detailed explanations of the current regional context which was pivotal in explaining why certain policies or actions had a greater impact than others. The strategies also highlighted the importance of developing and investing in climate policymaking to ensure polices they set are appropriate for the regions as well as the communities they serve, whilst aiming to minimise the (negative) impact on residents as much as possible. Another key area both strategies explore is the financial implications of initiatives, indicating whether projects are either already funded, part funded or if they are being financed. This is something the Glasgow Climate Plan provided details on more than any other climate strategy reviewed. Importantly, the strategies outlined the capacity requirements to adequately resource their polices and provided timebound milestones to monitor progress against.

Additional findings

Territorial emissions impact

Of the 69 climate change strategies, 56 either partially valued their emissions impact or failed to value the scale of their impact on GHG emissions at all. A common theme in the absence of territorial GHG emission impact was to apply a bespoke indicator as a measure of success, such as increasing the number of staff working remotely. The majority of climate change plans did not outline the methodologies applied in gathering and quantifying performance measures and targets, so it was often unclear how impacts would be measured.

The key aim of this research was to identify policies that could impact territorial GHG emissions in a major way. The top performing policies against the criteria were scored well because they quantified the anticipated impacts. Emissions were typically quantified as either a tonnage reduction in GHG emissions (tCO₂e) or a percentage reduction against a baseline figure.

Resourcing, financing and timelines

56 of the 69 climate change strategies had fully or partially evidenced timescales for implementation and completion. adopt a unified approach.

The most mature climate change strategies also included considerations around cost, whether funding had been secured, who would be financing it and who would be delivering these policies. For example, Argyle and Bute’s Decarbonisation Plan (Argyll and Bute Council, 2021) outlines sources of funding against each individual policy, whether funding has been secured or still requires budget.

However, policies aimed at achieving the same outcome might do so on different timescales. There was no clear pattern across the climate change strategies on how timescales were decided upon. The exception to this rule was waste targets as they are set nationally, which is a good example of how other policy areas could do the same to territorial emissions and targets

Only 13 of the 69 climate change strategies cited their territorial emissions. Of those, only some set territorial emissions targets. It is not clear why this was the case. It could be due to local authorities not having updated information about their territorial emissions or because they were not confident in how they could enact change in their regions. Climate change strategies that specifically mentioned territorial emissions and set emissions targets for their area had more detailed action lists that went beyond council owned assets. This difference is important as it highlights some local authorities are being proactive in tackling territorial GHG emissions in the local authority area beyond just those of their own organisations.

Summary

The level of detail and consistency of targets and performance metrics showed that there was no clear and consistent approach to developing climate change strategies. This makes comparison and valuation of the climate strategies complex due to the non-uniform nature of presenting impact and the lack of detail around the methodological approaches applied.

The strategies we ranked high on our measures including scalability, replicability, and quantification of impacts, could form the basis of best-practice knowledge sharing, and setting of a national approach (see Appendix 13.1.1 for further detail). Our findings reflect those of recent research carried out by Environmental Standards Scotland (Environmental Standards Scotland, 2023) that recommended Scottish Government introduce a standardised Climate Plan template with mandatory reporting for local authorities. This recommendation would go some way to solving some of the challenges uncovered by this research.

Results of quantitative research

Overview

From the six climate strategies reviewed in detail (Figure 3), 61 distinct climate policies were extracted. The distribution of the policies across the GHG inventory categories is summarised in Figure 4.

Of the 61 policies extracted, most policies (26) targeted building emissions and are outside the scope of this research as they are covered by the exemplar LHEES approach that has already been rolled out nationally across all local authorities. This research intended to identify policies in other GHG inventory categories that have the same potential for rollout across local authorities. With building emissions excluded, the remaining 35 policies have the greatest numbers in transport (13), LULUCF (8) and industry (7) as shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Number of policies extracted, by GHG inventory.

Of the 35 policies, we could only collect sufficient information from 13 policies to be able to estimate potential GHG emission impact. These are described alongside example targets and KPIs in Appendix 13.5.

Policy scenario emissions

We analysed the 13 policies to estimate the potential GHG emission impact if they were to be scaled-up to the national level and enacted across all 32 local authorities. The potential GHG emission impacts are high-level indicative estimates using a basic methodological approach and incorporating multiple assumptions, as set out in Appendix 13.1.2 and 13.2. As such, the quantitative findings are indicative, illustrating the scale of potential impact that local authorities may have in tackling climate change. Further analysis would provide more accurate potential GHG impacts of policies.

The findings of this analysis are detailed Table 4. Each row in Table 4 contains a climate policy that originates from either a single local authority or multiple local authorities where policies were similar. Table 4 details that across the 13 policies assessed for their GHG emission impact, there is potential for an estimated 9 MtCO₂e overall change to territorial emissions, or 22% of the current inventory emissions for Scotland.

The full breakdown of the indicative estimated potential impact on each individual local authority’s GHG inventory is presented in Appendix 13.6 and sources for the assumptions and conversion factors are included at Appendix 13.2.

For each of these 13 policies valued, we also show in Table 4 our assessment of the likelihood of each policy to cause a change in emissions if rolled out nationally to all local authorities, taking account sphere of control, capacity and capability, and the timescale over which a policy would be enacted. We also assessed the magnitude of the potential change. Both of these methodologies are outlined in IPCC guidelines (IPCC, 2006) and set out in Appendix 13.4. There will be widely ranging factors and contexts at an individual local authority level which have not been accounted for and that would significantly impact implementation of the policies assessed. In addition, there are critical wider factors such as future national policy development and available budget that were not incorporated into this quantitative analysis.

Findings

Comparing the policies evaluated in Table 4 with the Climate Change Plan sector envelopes (Scottish Government, 2020, p. 253) indicates that both LULUCF and transport policies have the greatest potential to impact territorial GHG emissions, with a high likelihood of the local authority being able to influence their outcome. Table 3 below shows estimated potential GHG emission reductions in these policy areas if implemented in each local authority.

The other policy areas evaluated may also compare favourably with the Climate Change Plan sector envelopes but local authorities have a more limited control on the outcomes. This is the case with policies relating to changes in agricultural practices. In addition, while seven industrial emission-related policies were present amongst the six climate strategies finalised, none sought to value their impact on territorial GHG emissions and provided limited definitive action. Instead, the industrial-emission-related policies opted for a model of getting organisations to sign up to climate change pledges. Policies that were either outside the local authorities’ sphere of influence, or policies that impacted centralised issues, such as waste management, were also not carried forward to interviews with local authorities.

Results of qualitative research

Overview

The results of the quantitative research found that policies in LULUCF and transport showed potential in having significant impacts on local authority territorial GHG emissions. To find out more about how these policies were developed, and the potential pathways to implementing similar policies at the national level, we interviewed local authorities who had leading policies in nature-based solutions and net zero transport.

Findings

The findings below combine evidence from our review of existing data and assessment of the key themes identified through thematic analysis of interviews.

Capacity and capability

It was clear from the interviews that lack of capacity to develop and deliver policies would likely hamper efforts in expanding policies across all local authorities in Scotland. We found that some local authorities had the resource and ability to hire specialist skills into the organisation. Through this they could actively engage with teams across the organisation to ensure policy ambitions were carried out. An example of this given by one respondent:

“It’s imperative to ensure that any planting of new trees considered multiple planning and climate aspects, impacting the species of tree selected, factoring in considerations about the future microclimate and requirements for future flood prevention.”

However, local authorities do not always know what skills they need to deliver on a policy ambition. One respondent explained that many policies require both multi-disciplinary expertise, such as project management, as well as specialist skills, such as ArcGIS^[3], to properly manage the rollout of a policy.

One respondent explained that budget cuts mean that retaining enough resource within the organisation, with access to the right skills and expertise would be a defining factor in the success of climate policies’ targets. Respondents did signal that it was possible to access skills external to the local authority (e.g. through consultancy) but this was often ad hoc. Developing and implementing policies will require multi-year and decadal management to realise their full benefits. Not being able to retain the skills and resource within the local authority places their success at risk.

Data maturity

One of the respondents explained that having good quality data that is continually updated and shared across the organisation is critical to enabling policy development and delivery. The example provided was the data landscape for nature-based solutions policies, which is complex, onerous to compile and requires near-constant updating. For example, in the greening of derelict land, the classification of land as ‘derelict’ ebbs and flows as multiple stakeholders retain interest in the space. The local authority itself (potentially across multiple departments), private individuals, residents and developers may all have a stake in the use of the derelict land. Added to this is the difficulty of collecting accurate data about derelict land, such as carbon evaluation, existence of contaminants, appraisal of natural ecosystems and animal species, and importance to flood prevention. This information is needed to show causal links between greening derelict land and benefits such as heat reduction and carbon sequestration.

Data also enables a local authority to develop robust climate policies by identifying measurable KPIs and to set realistic timescales. Several climate change strategies we reviewed were at early stages of development and specifically referenced the need for additional research to complete the valuation of a policy’s impact. For example, several transport policies referenced other transport strategy documents in-development that sought to improve data maturity for the local area, and enable valuation of impacts and target setting. Timescales for the development of these strategies were not clear.

Collecting adequate data is key to the development, measurement, and success of a climate policy. However, the landscape is complex and demanding and interrelated to capacity and capability in the local authority as discussed above.

Geographical diversity

We found that the overarching aims of climate change strategies across Scotland are the same. However, sometimes these goals are were coupled with specific local issues. Therefore, motivations, KPIs, and targets by which the local authorities measure the performance of climate related policies often differ. This has a knock-on effect on the data and capacity needed to implement policy across diverse communities.

One clear example of this is in homeworking policies. In large island communities that have a widely dispersed rural communities, home working and flexible working has benefited commuters who do not need to travel great distances to reach their work location. One interviewee explained that the policy has helped island communities to overcome other issues such as the lack of public transport provision. Similar homeworking policies also exist in cities with a specific focus on reducing the amount of traffic congestion within the city centre at peak times. Both sets of policies have differing motivations for enacting homeworking polices but the end benefit of reduced air pollution is the same.

Accountability and ownership

We found that climate policies often span multiple departments within an organisation. In some circumstances this led to ambiguity around accountability for the successful delivery of a policy. One respondent explained that for nature-based climate policies, using afforestation as a specific case in point, the responsibility and budget for tree planting might fall with a local authority’s parks department. However, responsibility to actively manage LULUCF from a climate perspective might reside with the sustainability or planning departments. This leads to complexities around who in a local authority needs to be consulted for LULUCF projects and who has ultimate ownership of a policy being successfully enacted. Respondents referenced that it is not uncommon for there to be “a lot of silo working” across departments, so projects that might impact on a climate policy are not always communicated, or vice versa. Respondents also noted that there tends to be an aversion to taking on or sharing climate policy responsibilities because it is a change from how departments have functioned in the past,

“[we] have always done it this way so why would we do it another way”.

Funding

Funding, or the lack thereof, was a common theme across respondents. One respondent noted that there is a lack of funding available to commission external expertise, for example the delivery of a feasibility study. This hampered efforts to collect the information needed to develop robust policies and set realistic targets. It was clear from the strategies reviewed that only a few local authorities sought to quantify the funding requirement to deliver policies.

A strong theme was the lack of funding to attract and retain talent within the local authorities. One example given was that of senior planners, who are required within in a local authority to appropriately manage LULUCF. We were told:

“[Local authorities] advertised at between £39,000 and £48,000 per annum while the private sector advertises similar roles for between £48,000 and £68,00 per annum”.

This leads to expertise being stripped out of the public sector by the private sector after employees have gained a few years’ experience.

There are several avenues of funding available to Scottish local authorities. However, it was the view of respondents that funding was piecemeal, short-term where local authorities needed a longer-term financial commitment and finite, which leads to competition across local authorities. There was a view shared across respondents that funders such as Scottish Government and NatureScot should look to review how funding is administered. A model was suggested in which funders work directly with each individual local authority to identify areas where funding could have the greatest impact at the local level. There was appreciation though that both Scottish Government and NatureScot are themselves suffering from budget and resourcing pressures to many of the local authorities, which hampers efforts to change existing models.

Summary

While very limited, the qualitative evidence indicates that many of the barriers highlighted by the interviews are aligned to those presented in the climate strategy documentary review. Further, the interviews also indicate that these barriers are interlinked and require a holistic approach to be overcome. For example, the lack of funding directly impacts capacity and capability within local authorities to deliver climate policy. This in turn directly impacts the maturity of data across the sector and, again, the local authority’s ability to deliver robust climate policies.

Considering the identified barriers to enacting climate policies, local authorities have nevertheless made significant inroads to developing some best-in-class policies that go above and beyond national ambitions. This is evident in the detail and narrative presented in multiple climate strategies. This shows there is a major interest and commitment by local authorities to tackle their territorial emissions. While policymaking in this area is limited in its scope, scale and consistency, local authorities interviewed demonstrated keenness to increase action.

Combined results

Table 4 combines the quantitative and qualitative research’s estimated potential impacts for the policies should they be implemented nationally. Appendix 13.1.2 describes the methodology used to arrive at the figures included and Appendix 13.2 lists the sources used.

Policy briefing: Nature-based solutions

Background

Biodiversity loss and the destruction of natural habitats is directly linked to climate change. Scottish forests, peatlands and bogs contribute to healthy eco systems. These systems work to remove CO₂ from our atmosphere and in some areas become large carbon sinks. According to the Biodiversity Intactness Indicator, Scotland has seen a 15% decline in its natural capital since 1950 with only 64% of our protected woodlands being in a favourable or recovering condition (Scottish Government, 2022).

Figure 5 shows the total estimated impact on LULUCF territorial GHG emissions by each individual policy, moving the inventory from 2.1 MtCO₂e emission per annum to (negative) -3.4 MtCO₂e through a combination of three polices.

Figure 5: Potential impact on LULUCF territorial GHG emissions across Scotland for a nature-based solutions policy

Greening Derelict Land

The rewilding policy outlined in Glasgow’s Climate Plan (Glasgow City Council, 2022) was one of the most developed we found during the quantitative review. It was used as the foundation to value the potential impact of nation-wide greening of derelict land. NatureScot estimated the total area of urban vacant and derelict land in Scotland in 2017 to be 11,649 hectares (Nature Scot, 2022). Across Scotland, 35% (4,077 ha) of urban vacant and derelict land can be thought of as being uneconomic to develop and/or is viewed as suitable to reclaim for a ‘soft’ end use (i.e. non-built use). The most common new use for sites that were previously urban vacant and derelict land was for residential development, with 50% of sites reclaimed for this purpose (Nature Scot, 2022). Changing land use for derelict land comes with many challenges for local authorities to consider including potential decontamination, private ownership, stakeholder relations, and internal ownership of the policy (see findings from the qualitative research in Section 7).

We have given an interim target of 2025 for greening to reach an estimated net gain in carbon sequestration potential of 2.2 MtCO₂e across Scotland by 2040. This figure is an upper bound estimate and was calculated on the basis of the following significant assumptions:

• 50% of the uneconomic land could be ’greened’ as described above.
• Derelict land is assumed to be neutral grassland that can be converted to coniferous woodland, applying carbon stock estimates (tC / ha) by habitat type and converting to MtCO₂e (Carbon Rewild, 2020).
• Afforested trees would reach their peak potential sequestration between 16 and 25 years of age (Carbon Store, n.d.).

Peatland Restoration

Scotland’s Nature Agency estimates that Scotland has some 1.8 Mha of blanket bog, representing 23% of the total land area (NatureScot, 2023). It is estimated that up to 80% of the total peatland area (1.44 Mha) is damaged. We have drawn on several policies across three local authorities that had detailed peatland restoration ambitions. The policies we reviewed sought to meet the pace of restoration set by Scottish Government of 20,000 ha restored per annum, with a target of 250,000 ha restored by 2030 (Scottish Government, 2020). Maintaining this pace of change to 2045 would mean a potential restoration of 0.55 Mha of peatland by 2045. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) estimates that up to 4.6 tCO₂e per hectare could be reduced by restored peatland (IUCN, 2010). This produces an estimated carbon reduction potential of 2.5 MtCO₂e.

A strong caveat to the total potential restoration area is that much of the peatland across Scotland is under private ownership. Local authorities have limited powers outwith their own land ownership and may face significant challenges in convincing some private landowners to restore the peat on their land. In the absence of clear data on the area of peatland under private ownership, or other ownership covenants, for the purposes of estimating a potential GHG emission reduction we have made the broad assumption that these challenges could be overcome. However, if these challenges cannot be overcome it would severely reduce achievable emissions reductions.

Afforestation

We have used Stirling’s Climate & Nature Emergency Plan (Stirling Council, 2022) reforestation policy to plant 360,000 new trees by 2030, and 1 million new trees by 2045 as the basis for the modelled figures. The average kilogram of carbon dioxide sequestered by a mature tree is between 10kg CO₂ and 40kg CO₂ depending on age, species, and growing environment (EcoTree, 2023). For the purposes of estimation, 25kgCO₂ / tree / per annum has been used. Scaling this ambition to the national level, the total estimated removal of 0.8 MtCO₂ per annum across Scotland.

There are significant assumptions that sit behind the above estimation. These include:

• Stirling’s policy does not specify the type of land that will be converted, the detailed timescales for planting (impacting when the new tree stock will be at maturity), nor the preferred species of tree to be reforested.
• The policy does not value the GHG emission impact of planting new trees.
• We have assumed that the afforested trees will sequester emissions at their peak potential (i.e. a mature forest). This means the estimated emissions removals are limited by the fact we have not modelled a progressive change in sequestration over time, accounting for the growth of new woodland, such as that outlined by the Woodland Carbon Code (UK Woodland Carbon Code, 2021).

Summary

During our research we found that local authorities were eager to develop and create policies for land use that could make a quantifiable impact. One common theme across all local authorities was the consideration of peatland as one of the most impactful policies to reduce their carbon emissions. There are abundant resources provided by the IUCN peatland code (IUCN, 2023) that local authorities could access to begin developing strong peatland restoration policies.

Policy briefing: Net zero transport

Background

Scotland has ambitious targets to reduce transport emissions to net-zero by 2045 (Transport Scotland, 2019a). Transport emissions are one of the largest GHG inventory categories, accounting for 24% of overall territorial emissions (DESNZ, 2023). This is reflected in the number of transport policies identified across local authority climate change strategies. The policies in the section below demonstrate how local authorities are driving forward transport solutions.

Figure 6: Potential impact on transport territorial GHG emissions across Scotland for a net zero transport policy

Figure 6 shows the total estimated impact on transport GHG emissions by each individual policy, moving the inventory from 9,878 MtCO₂e emission per annum to 8,351 MtCO₂e through a combination of seven polices.

The Scottish National Transport Strategy states that 40% of transport emissions come from fossil fuelled cars. Recognising the impact that internal combustion engine cars have, local authorities have started to introduce policies targeted specifically at reducing these emissions. (Transport Scotland, 2019a).

High private use car use does not just affect GHG emissions, it also has a significant impact on air quality, health and pedestrian safety. Private car use contributes to high pollutions levels and with transport contributing to 1/6 of Scotland’s particulate matter (PM10) it is clear this is an area for policy focus (Transport Scotland, 2019a).

Local authorities understand the need for potent policies to be in line with national targets such as the goal to reduce car kilometres driven by 20% by 2030. These range from encouraging more active travel through the creation of active travel corridors and implementing low emissions zones in congested zones.

Active transport

The figures for this policy were modelled using Argyll and Bute Council’s Decarbonisation Plan 2022-2025 (Argyll and Bute Council, 2021). £2.3 million has been invested in delivering a wide range of active travel initiatives such as improved pathways, community cycle repair stands, cycle parking and new cycling routes. Through a combination of similar initiatives, a viable aim would be to convert 47% of remaining road journeys of up to 3km to active travel, which was the average proportion of active travel journeys up to 3km in 2019 (Transport Scotland, 2019b). The Council has committed to develop an Active Travel Strategy that would drive the policy forward at a future stage, but up to this point, resource to deliver the policy is dependent on external funding awards and is not covered by council budgets.

Homeworking

This policy has been valued as a proportion of the 262,000 Scottish FTE public sector total workforce (Scottish Government, 2022) working from home for 50% of their contracted hours. Reducing the average commute of 20 km round trip to office locations made in 73% of circumstances by personal car (Scottish Government, 2022b). Further potential emission reductions could be achieved through reduced operation of offices, such as heating, lighting, equipment and other operational emissions, although these have not been factored into our current study. However, it should be noted that emissions from reduced transport are minimal due to increased emissions associated with staff working from home (Riley et al., 2021).

Low-emission zones

Currently, there are four low emission zones (LEZ) in Scotland with enforcement for Dundee, Aberdeen and Edinburgh being introduced in 2024. Glasgow’s LEZ is integrated with the City Development Plan 2, Glasgow Transport Strategy and their Climate Plan to implement the change. The LEZ has been operating since 2018 with the aim of encouraging more active travel and public transport use in the city centre. The policy was implemented in phases to ensure low levels of disruption for residents, which should be a key consideration if scaling this across Scotland. Using findings from the London LEZ (Mayor of London, 2023), we have assumed a 4% CO₂ saving on emissions from transport on minor roads, to account for the fact LEZs will likely be operational in urban areas.

Decarbonisation of public transport

Climate targets published in the Stirling Climate & Nature Emergency Plan (Stirling Council, 2022) aim to reduce GHG emissions from public transport by an interim target of 25% in 2030, with an overall target of 75% by 2045. This has been extrapolated using population as a function to estimate the number of people served by public transport. However, the provision of public transport across Scotland is dependent on several factors, including sparseness of the population and socioeconomic circumstance, which are not accounted for in the potential emissions impact estimation. Further work should be undertaken to quantify the benefits.

Decarbonisation of fleet vehicles

This policy’s emissions were modelled using the estimated number of 28,800 fleet vehicles in the Scottish public sector (Scottish Futures Trust, 2022). We applied a conversion factor for assumed petrol cars, diesel LGVs and HGVs (BEIS, 2023). The average number of kilometres travelled annually is 12,000 km (Scottish Futures Trust, 2022). Post-conversion to EV emissions are zero, as per emission factor guidance. It is worth noting that EV technology for HGVs is under development and may not play a major role until post-2030 (Transport & Environment, 2023).

Council business travel

These emissions were estimated based on climate targets published in the Stirling Climate & Nature Emergency Plan (Stirling Council, 2022). The plan sets out the ambition of reducing baseline transport emissions (4,450 tCO₂) by the interim target of 45% by 2030, and the overall target emission reduction of 90% by 2045. This has been applied across the other local authorities, using population as a proxy. Further research to quantify emissions for each local authority would need to be carried out to refine these estimates.

LEV taxi licences

Stirling Climate & Nature Emergency Plan (Stirling Council, 2022) sets out the authority’s commitment to 100% of all taxis operating in the region being EVs by 2045. Using this as a foundation, we have valued the policy ambition in potential national GHG territorial emission impact.

There are 20,396 taxi licences registered across the 32 local authorities in Scotland of which 9,928 were registered as of 2021 (Transport Scotland, 2021). 1.9% are thought to be ULEVS (DfT, 2023). The policy will seek to increase the share of ULEV licences to 100% by 2045 effectively curtailing the emissions from private car hire.

To calculate the GHG emission impact, we anticipate that the average number of kilometres travelled per annum per capita is 80.85 km taken from the average number of trips made in the UK, by mode of transport (DESNZ, 2023) across the population of Scotland (5,563,000). Assumed that most private hire taxis are diesel cars, we applied the emission factor for a diesel car from BEIS company reporting datasets (BEIS, 2023) to calculate a saving on emission of 76.36 ktCO₂e.

Summary

It is clear from our research that transport is a key focus for all local authorities across Scotland due to the interlinked impacts spanning multiple socio-economic factors. Transport policies are very publicly visual in their delivery, making it easy for local authorities to point toward action being taken. In this section we have outlined some of the transport-related policies that could potentially be rolled out across Scotland’s local authorities. There is great potential to support local authorities to drive ambitious change in transport emissions, many of whom are already showing innovative solutions to enacting change in their local area. We have also given high-level estimates of potential emissions reductions if some of the most mature existing travel policies were scaled up.

Conclusions

Through pursuit of Local Heat and Energy Efficiency Strategies (LHEES), the Scottish Government has set the foundations for local authorities to drive their own locally led net zero agendas, directly tackling territorial greenhouse emissions from buildings. This research sought to investigate the role of local authorities in addressing emissions across other inventory categories, to replicate the success and best practice generated by LHEES.

From the evidence reviewed and from the interviews with local authorities, it is clear that there is local authority ambition to deliver climate policies that tackle local climate challenges, at the same time as delivering emissions reductions that go above and beyond national targets. Our climate strategy register details 69 current local authority climate-relevant strategies and describes the action being taken across all emission categories. We uncovered several climate change strategies that clearly detail intent, value their potential impacts and address resourcing and funding needs. Further research could be carried out to establish best-practice guidance on the development of climate policies, using existing local authority approaches as the foundation. This would help improve consistency across local authorities in how they value policy impacts and Scottish Government’s understanding of the resourcing, skills and funding needed to deliver.

This research assessed local authority strategies and policies to find where the most mature and impactful local authority climate policies have been developed. We scaled-up the emission reduction potential of the strongest of these local policies to give high-level-indicative estimates of what the impact could be in other local authorities and at a national level. Combining all of the analysis, we identified the greatest potential for impactful local authority controlled policies on territorial emissions to be within the LULUCF and transport categories.

For these to be implemented across Scotland, we found that the Scottish Government has a key role to play. They can provide effective leadership through facilitating best-practice knowledge sharing, improved access to skilled resource and targeted funding initiatives.

Territorial GHG policies are complex and data-driven, requiring specialist resource to develop and deliver, which we found does not always exist within individual local authorities. The Scottish Climate Intelligence Service has recently been launched in response to this barrier for many local authorities. Further research could expand on the capacity and capability requirements to deliver local authority climate policies between now and 2045, including methods by which the resourcing needs could be met.

Finally, funding is key to driving forward all the strategies and policies we have reviewed in this research. There are many pockets of funding available to local authorities to deliver climate policies. However, the interviews show that the funding is often piecemeal and short-term. Further investigation could help quantify the funding available for tackling each GHG inventory, where further funding might best be directed and methods for administrating funding to ensure that national ambitions can be met.

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Appendices

Detailed methodology

Selection of climate strategies

The research identified 69 separate climate-related strategies across the 32 local authorities. To determine which were the key strategies to take forward to develop greenhouse gas emission boundaries, we designed five selection criteria to score each of the strategies against the metrics in 3.

We developed a screening matrix that ranked the strategies against five criteria outlined in Table 5 and determined the level of maturity on a scale of 1-3, assessing the level of evidence provided in a climate change strategy as yes / no / partial. We further embellished the five section criteria to ensure the strategies selected covered, as a collective, each of the six greenhouse gas emission inventories

Following presentation of the final policies selected with the steering group, a further consideration was made to ensure that at least one climate strategy from a local authority located outside of Scotland’s central belt was included, to ensure a better geographical spread. This resulted in the addition of Dumfries and Galloway Council to the climate boundary task.

Greenhouse gas emission boundaries and scenario emissions calculations and limitations

It is impractical to measure greenhouse gas emissions impact in real time from every chimney, exhaust, or acre of land use. GHG emission estimates are based on a series of models that estimate emissions from different sources (BEIS, 2023). The calculations performed for each of the scenario emissions is in line with international guidance (IPCC, 2006). We used government conversion factors for company reporting of greenhouse gas emissions (BEIS, 2023), Green Book supplementary guidance on the valuation of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for appraisal (BEIS, 2023) and from IPCC guidance (IPCC, 2006). Other sources were researched from literature in the absence of standardised sets of emission factors.

The basic equation used to quantify scenario emissions is:

Equation 1: GHG scenario emissions

• Activity data is a variable that is changed by a policy. For example, a policy may look to reduce the number of kilometres travelled by private car.
• Emission factor is a constant that is used to convert the activity data to an impact. In most cases, this will be a GHG emission conversion factor.
• The impact estimate can either form a policy target or metric by which to measure success. Typically, this will be a GHG emission saving but it could also include other benefits (e.g. societal).

An example of this methodology in practice would be estimating GHG emissions from vehicles. The activity data might be the total number of kilometres travelled by that type of vehicle and the emission factor would be the amount of CO₂ emitted per kilometre.

Emission factors for energy sources are either dependent on the fuel characteristics (for emissions of CO₂) or how the fuel is burned, for example the size and efficiency of equipment used. For other sources, the emission factor can be dependent on a range of parameters, such as feed characteristics for livestock or the chemical reactions taking place for industrial process emissions. Emission factors are typically derived from measurements on several representative sources and the resulting factor applied to all similar sources in the UK.

This approach follows the ‘Tier 1’ approach as set out in IPCC guidance for national greenhouse gas inventories (IPCC, 2006):

Table 5: Quantification of GHG emission impact

An example of how an emission factor was applied to an activity is converting 1 tonne of municipal waste to 1 tonne of recycled waste as part of a landfill reduction strategy. Using emission conversion factors from government conversion factors for company reporting (BEIS, 2023), 1 tonne of waste sent to landfill has a greenhouse gas intensity of 497 kgCO₂e/tonne. A tonne of waste recycled has a greenhouse gas intensity of 21 kgCO₂e/tonne. Comparisons made between the two indicate a net greenhouse gas benefit of avoiding waste going to landfill.

As noted in Table 5, this is a basic methodological approach, using emissions and conversion factors from representative sources not specific to Scottish local authorities. In some instances, population data has been used as a proxy where local authority specific data was not available. The activity data was also derived from a variety of sources encompassing a range of levels of confidence (see Appendix 13.2). As such there is a high level of uncertainty in the estimated projected emissions reductions.

Sources for emissions equations

As described in the methodology section above, the figures presented in Tables 3, 4, 12, 13, 14, 15 and 16 and Figures 5 and 6 used the basic equation activity data x emission factor. The emissions factors were primarily drawn from Green Book supplementary guidance: valuation of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions for appraisal (BEIS, 2023) and Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC, 2006). However, in some cases additional sources were drawn on. The activity data was calculated using a range of sources. The sources are presented in Table 7 below, by GHG inventory category.

Table 7: Sources for emissions calculations by inventory category

Climate change strategy register

Quantifying impact

In the development of the emission boundaries, we applied two measures of assessing impact: Likelihood and Magnitude.

Likelihood

Likelihood is defined as the probability or chance that a given policy will achieve its intended impact or target. We have applied IPCC Guidance (IPCC, 2006) to determine likelihood as outlined in Table 8.

There are several considerations made when assessing the likelihood, a policy has in achieving its intended outcomes.

• Sphere of control: a measure of how much control a local authority has over whether action is taken against a policy. This ranges on a scale from absolute where a policy is enacted through legislation, through to voluntary where a policy results in stakeholders making a pledge.
• Capacity and capability: whether the local authority have the resources it needs to actively measure and enforce the provisions within a policy once it is active.
• Timescale: the impacts of policies may require consistent action taken over several years, or even decades. This can prove difficult as socioeconomic needs shift over time meaning that policies may also need to adapt over time, changing impacts and targets.

An example of a policy that is ‘very likely’ to meet its intended targets is a Low Emission Zone whereby a local authority has absolute ability to determine the classification of vehicles that enter its zone. Compare this to a policy improving active travel provision whereby the intended benefits are somewhat dependent on stakeholders enacting the policy out of their own free-will.

Magnitude

Magnitude is a simple measure of a policy’s potential impact on an inventory’s emissions. Following IPCC guidance (IPCC, 2006), we have set the following impact boundaries to rank the valued policies:

Policy descriptions

Table 10: Descriptions of 13 climate policies collated from six chosen local authorities for valuation, including example targets and KPIs set by the local authorities

Valuing greenhouse gas emissions

Table 21: Total territorial greenhouse gas emissions (ktCO₂e), by inventory (BEIS, 2022)

Table 32: Estimated potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions (ktCO2e) from Agriculture and LULUCF policies

Table 13: Estimated impact on greenhouse gas emissions (ktCO2e) from Transport policies

Table 44: Estimated potential impact on greenhouse gas emissions (ktCO2e) from Waste policies

Table 15: Estimated potential impact on total territorial greenhouse gas emissions (ktCO2e), by inventory

Table 56: Percentage change in territorial greenhouse gas emissions (ktCO2e) from implementing policies