Drought, as a significant risk to Scottish forests, is likely to be exacerbated by the changing climate. This report summarises the current state of research, describes ongoing projects and identifies knowledge gaps and potential research directions. Considerations around the policy and practice implications are made, taking into account the available information.

Key findings

• There is high confidence that especially in east, central, and south Scotland the direct effects of severe droughts are likely to be felt primarily in forest productivity and carbon sequestration. 
• Tree species are known to differ in their vulnerability to drought impacts. The productivity of Scots pine, Douglas fir, and Sitka spruce can be heavily impacted by severe droughts. Trials of different species provenances have shown that there can be as large a variation in drought susceptibility between provenances as between species.
• Drought effects are the result of the complex interplay between climate extremes, many different components of forest ecosystems and other biotic and abiotic disturbances. All these elements will be affected by climate change in ways that cannot be confidently projected, which makes predicting the interactions between them even more difficult.
• There is medium confidence that applying dendrochronology (the study of annual growth increments, or tree rings) alongside remote sensing and drought indices could help understanding of the risk of large-scale drought impacts.

Agro-forestry is the integrated use of trees on a farm or small holding for a wide range of benefits.  The Scottish Government has set statutory targets for the reduction of GHG emissions in Scotland through the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. Agroforestry in Scotland is one option that could help achieve these targets, while also supporting sustainable adaptation to a changing climate.

This report identifies the wide range of potential benefits of increasing the use of agroforestry practice in Scotland and will support further discussion towards implementation.

The Scottish Government’s ambition is to increase woodland cover in Scotland to 25% by the second half of the century. The Scottish Climate Change Plan (2017) has an ambition to increase from the current 18% to around 21% of woodland cover by 2032. This will make an important contribution to reducing Scotland’s net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

However, it is important to understand the consequences of forestry activity, given that approximately two-thirds of Scotland is covered by high carbon-content organic soils of varying depths, including nearly a quarter with deep peat soils

This report examines new evidence published since the Forest Research report ‘Understanding the GHG implications of forestry on peat soils in Scotland’ (Morison et al., 2010). The review broadly confirms the findings of the 2010 report. It remains probable that moderate and high productivity forests planted on shallower peat soils with limited disturbance provide a substantial net carbon uptake over the forest cycle.

Soil carbon, or the content of carbon housed within soil, plays a significant role in the release and absorption of global greenhouse gas emissions. Changes in land use contribute to release of this carbon, and Scottish Government is interested in the potential implications of such change across several policy areas.

ClimateXChange has been involved in peatland research from the outset, particularly focused on the carbon benefits from peatland restoration and how it might contribute to greenhouse gas emissions reduction in Scotland.

The Durban Summit in December 2011 paved the way for wetland management, including peatland, to be included in national greenhouse gas emissions accounting.

ClimateXChange continues to explore the implications of the international guidance for greenhouse gas emissions accounting with specific reference to wetlands in Scotland. Download our reports using the links to the right. They are:

• Potential Abatement from Peatland Restoration exploring the range of possible CO2 emissions from Scottish peatland restoration, carbon savings from all peatland restoration carried out since 1990 and the potential for carbon savings up to 2027 and a realistic restoration abatement figure. Methane and nitrous oxide fluxes were not fully considered in this early work (February 2012, revised March 2013).
• Carbon Calculator – since 2011, applications for the development of wind farms of 50 MW or greater on peatland sites have been expected to use the Scottish Government’s Peatland Carbon Calculator (the C calculator) as part of their environmental impact assessment.This report reviews the current use of the C calculator in Scotland, and considers the potential for enhancing and extending its use.
• An assessment of the proposed IPCC “2013 Supplement to the 2006 guidelines: Wetlands” for use in GHG accounting of Scottish peatland restoration – a report examining the implications of the emission factors identified in the draft 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines – (February 2014).
• A more detailed technical review of the implications of the 2013 supplement 2013 Supplement to the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Wetlands and a summary of the report (February 2015).