Understanding how the climate will be affected on a local and regional level is important in building resilience to the changing climate.

The main climate projections for Scotland are for hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters. However, there are many factors that influence climate and weather events.

This project is a literature review to identify the latest scientific evidence about how the variability and predictability of the Scottish climate will change as a result of climate change.

The report considers the potential impacts that both internal variability (naturally occurring variability) and external variability (such as human induced greenhouse gas emissions) will have on Scotland’s climate into the future.

The Scottish Government lodged an enquiry with ClimateXChange following a query received on future wind storms in Scotland. ClimateXChange researchers produced a brief that concluded that future climate projections of extreme wind speed are highly ambiguous. However, despite their high level of uncertainty, predictions of increased storm intensity and windspeed may be of interest to policy and the construction industry due to elevated risks.

The brief has already been used to inform policy thinking on how future wind storms might affect the built environment. More widely, the response is likely to be used by the Scottish Government to answer future queries on storminess in Scotland.